DPRK Nuclear Issues 2013

Satellite and Nuclear Issues
Includes Six Party Talks
2013
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Much material on this issue finds its way to the US and other pages, when the emphasis seems to be on state-to-state relations. The exception being the Six-Party Talks which are usually posted here.
for some key documents see 2011 page

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DECEMBER 2013

South Africa, the nation that gave up its nukes
By F.W. DE KLERK Los Angeles Times December 24, 2013 Updated 17 hours ago It would be a mistake to think that the end of the Cold War also ended the threat posed by nuclear weapons. Nuclear-armed states continue to deploy huge arsenals of nuclear weapons, other states continue with their efforts to acquire nuclear weapons, and there is the alarming possibility that such weapons might fall into the hands of terrorists. Accordingly, it might be helpful to consider the factors that led South Africa to develop nuclear weapons in the 1970s, and the reasons why it decided to dismantle them in 1989. In 1974, as Soviet influence began expanding in southern Africa, our country decided to build a small number of nuclear bombs. After the collapse of the Portuguese empire in Africa in 1975, South Africa's industrial heartland was suddenly vulnerable to air attack from the Soviet Union's new allies in the region. The buildup of Cuban forces in Angola from 1975 onward reinforced the perception that a deterrent was necessary, as did South Africa's growing international isolation and the fact that it could not rely on outside assistance in case of an attack. Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/12/24/212604/south-africa-the-nation-that-gave.html#storylink=cpy [South Africa] [Nuclear weapons]
Major Development: Reactor Fuel Fabrication Facilities Identified at Yongbyon Nuclear Complex
By 38 North 23 December 2013 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Nick Hansen Summary Commercial satellite imagery has identified facilities at the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center that may produce fuel for North Korea’s recently restarted 5 MW plutonium production reactor and the Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR) still under construction. The identification of these facilities indicates a more wide-ranging, extensive effort by North Korea to modernize and restart the Yongbyon complex dating back to 2009 than previously understood. Specifically: Imagery analysis indicates that a probable fuel fabrication plant for the 5 MW reactor is located in the old pilot fuel fabrication plant for that reactor which fell into disuse in the 1980s. Renovation of the main building in this complex began in 2009 and the facility has been operating since 2010. Imagery analysis has also identified a possible ELWR fuel assembly plant, built in 2013, north of the pilot fuel fabrication facility. One of the largest structures at Yongbyon, the building’s configuration—including a high bay area measuring 1,500 square meters—is suitable for the production of LWR fuel assemblies. Alternatively, it may serve as a heavy machine shop for the entire Yongbyon complex or for producing large components for light water reactors. If the building is intended to produce fuel assemblies, that process could take several years. As a result, the ELWR may not become operational until late 2015 or 2016. [LWR] [Yongbyon]
North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: No Indication of Nuclear Test Preparations
By 38 North 20 December 2013 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu Summary While concerns that North Korea will launch provocations in the aftermath of Jang Song Thaek’s execution may be justified, recent commercial satellite imagery indicates that Pyongyang has no plan to conduct a nuclear test over at least the next few months. Through much of 2012, the site of the February 2013 nuclear test at the West Portal area was dormant. It appears that once the order to prepare for a possible test was issued, there was a spurt of activity at the site beginning in December 2012 and culminating in the February blast. As of early December 2013, there are no signs of stepped up activities at either the West or South Portal areas. [Test] [Provocation]
A nuclear threat far greater than Iran
By Ira Helfand December 10, 2013 -- Updated 0621 GMT (1421 HKT) The consequences of a limited nuclear war, such as a conflict between India and Pakistan, would put 2 billion people's lives at risk. The consequences of a limited nuclear war, such as a conflict between India and Pakistan, would put 2 billion people's lives at risk. Editor's note: Ira Helfand is co-president of International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War and a past president of the organization's U.S. affiliate, Physicians for Social Responsibility. He is the author of the report "Nuclear Famine: Two Billion People at Risk?" The views expressed in this article are solely his own. (CNN) -- The world is focused on forging a durable agreement to prevent Iran from developing a single nuclear weapon. While critically important, these efforts ignore a far greater danger: the thousands of weapons that already exist. There are today more than 17,000 nuclear warheads, an ongoing existential threat to human survival that has largely been ignored since the Cold War ended two decades ago. And, unlike Iran, there are no comparable negotiations under way to deal with these far more dangerous arsenals. In fact, the humanitarian consequences of even a limited nuclear war, such as a conflict in South Asia between India and Pakistan, involving just 100 Hiroshima-size bombs -- less than 0.5% of the world's nuclear arsenal -- would put 2 billion people's lives and well-being at risk. The local effects would be devastating. More than 20 million people would be dead in a week from the explosions, firestorms and immediate radiation effects. But the global consequences would be far worse. The firestorms caused by this war would loft 5 million tons of soot high into the atmosphere, blocking out sunlight and dropping temperatures across the planet. This climate disruption would cause a sharp, worldwide decline in food production. There would be a 12% decline in U.S. corn production and a 15% decline in Chinese rice production, both lasting for a full decade. A staggering 31% decline in Chinese winter wheat production would also last for 10 years. The resulting global famine would put at risk 870 million people in the developing world who are already malnourished today, and 300 million people living in countries dependent on food imports. [Nuclear weapons]
Bulletin #180: Good news: Obama’s nuclear modernization plan is collapsing; Los Alamos underground plutonium factory briefed; fundraising drive continues
December 7, 2013 Dear friends – There have been some dramatic developments recently in U.S. warhead policy. It is not too much to say that ambitious U.S. warhead modernization plans are crumbling, as we have predicted. For some years we’ve advised congressional staff and administration figures to quickly seek “exit ramps” from ridiculously-wasteful modernization plans. It is necessary to turn the steering wheel now, and that is starting to happen. What’s at issue is really the “whole enchilada” of the Administration’s grand plan to upgrade the U.S. nuclear arsenal – warheads, delivery systems, the whole thing. The reality that this upgrade is not all going to happen is very gradually going to become clear to more people. Yesterday we learned that the Department of Defense (DoD) has officially “jettisoned” plans to design and produce the first of three proposed new “interoperable” nuclear warheads, the W78/88 Life Extension Program (LEP). The idea, which was driven by the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) and its labs, was to design a new warhead that would be adaptable to both land-based Minuteman III ICBMs and submarine-launched Trident D-5 missiles. It’s a long story, but the Navy never really supported the proposal. The customer didn’t want the product, doubted NNSA’s ability to design and produce it, and refused to program money for flight-testing it. The Navy will stick with its current W88 warhead, which is getting a new fuze. [Nuclear weapons]

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NOVEMBER 2013

Construction at Tonghae Resumes: No Tests Likely in 2013
By 38 North 29 November 2013 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Nick Hansen. Summary Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates that construction of new facilities at the Tonghae Satellite Launching Ground in North Korea has resumed after a hiatus of nearly a year. Those facilities—a launch pad, missile assembly building and launch control center—appear to be designed to test future generations of larger, more capable rockets. In the short span of eight weeks—from September 16 until November 18—work resumed on the new launch control center, now nearly externally complete, and the assembly building, which is still in an early stage of construction. There was no construction at the new launch pad or on the road necessary to support these facilities. There had been previous speculation that the construction hiatus at Tonghae and the start of major new projects at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station this past summer may have meant Pyongyang was gradually abandoning the older site. However, the restart of work at the new Tonghae facilities indicates that North Korea is still committed to maintaining two launch sites for a larger space launch vehicle (SLV) reported to be under development. The one-year hiatus will, however, certainly delay completion of the new facilities. While it is difficult to predict given the up-until-now haphazard pace of construction, the new Tonghae facilities may not be completed until 2017. Imagery also shows no signs that North Korea is planning another long-range rocket launch in 2013. There is little to no activity at either the old Tonghae launch pad, which was used to test the Unha space launch vehicle in 2006 and 2009, or at other key installations critical for a launch. Moreover, recent imagery of the Sohae pad used to conduct Pyongyang’s recent Unha tests, indicates that construction is still ongoing, which would prevent launches in the near future. [Satellite] [SLV]
Can Korea Develop Its Own Space Rocket?
In his book "Physics for Future Presidents," Richard Muller, professor of physics at the University of California, Berkeley, described rockets as one of the "most ignorant" ways to travel to space. Muller says rockets waste 96 percent of the energy they gain from burning fuel. In the case of South Korea's first-ever space rocket, the combined weight of fuel and oxidizing agents account for 120 tons out of the vehicle's entire 140 ton weight. Most of the energy produced by the fuel and oxidizing agents is expended to carry their weight. This is simply inefficient. It takes a lot of fuel for a rocket to gain enough thrust to fly into space. But due to the weight of the fuel, it needs to carry even more fuel. This led to the design of multiple-stage rockets, which reduce weight in stages by shedding their carriages once their fuel has been expended. Most of the energy is still wasted, but there is enough thrust to propel the rocket into orbit. South Korea's first space launch vehicle Naro was a two-stage rocket. North Korea's, which was launched late last year, was a three-stage rocket. The Lamda 4S that Japan launched in 1970 was a four-stage rocket. The stronger the booster, the shorter a rocket can be. The Naro's booster has a 170-ton thrust, while the North Korean rocket's had a 120-ton thrust. But unlike North Korea, South Korea had to rely on Russia to provide the booster rocket, which is the most important part. This is why the South is considered to be 10 years behind the North in terms of rocket technology. [SLV]
Korea Hopes to Launch Own Space Rocket in 2020
Korea hopes to launch its first homegrown space rocket in June 2020, a year ahead of schedule. The country's first lunar orbiter and landing module will also be launched the same year. A national space committee on Tuesday approved the revised schedule, according to the Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning. The Korean launch vehicle will be a three-stage rocket capable of putting a 1.5-ton satellite into space about 600-800 km above the Earth. It was originally to be launched in September 2021. There will be five tests until 2020, with the first carrying a single engine scheduled for December 2017. The rocket will eventually be powered by multiple 75t thrust liquid fuel engines. [SLV]
Iran nuclear deal raises question of how to deal with N. Korean nukes
Posted on : Nov.25,2013 15:35 KST Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif (second from the right) shakes hands with representatives from the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany (P5+1) after reaching a deal for Iran to halt its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, in Geneva in the early hours of Nov. 24. (AFP/Yonhap News) Experts say Iran deal shows hope for dialogue-based solution, but more assertive stances needed from Seoul and Washington By Kim Kyu-won, staff reporter Iran’s deal on its nuclear program is turning attention to another country in a similar situation: North Korea. As meetings between top representatives of the countries in the six-party talks pick up, the question now is whether the talks will resume. Experts said that for all the attention the Iran deal was likely to draw to the talks, the chances of actually affecting their resumption is slim. Experts said the Iran deal could help spark a resumption of the six-party talks, which have been on ice for the past five years. “The outcome of these talks can give North Korea a sense of what the US wants, and now the US can focus its attention on North Korea now that the Iran issue is solved,” said Moon Chung-in, a professor at Yonsei University. “In that sense, it offers a sort of guideline for the six-party talks.” [Iran] [Six Party Talks]
‘North Korea appears at a level to build uranium-based bombs’
Published : 2013-11-20 20:46 Updated : 2013-11-20 20:46 Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin said Wednesday that North Korea appears to have reached a technological level to build uranium-based atomic bombs, which threatens regional peace and stability. During a parliamentary interpellation session, the minister also said Pyongyang is thought to be currently “test-operating” its nuclear reactor in the Yongbyon complex rather than having resumed its full-scale operation. [HEU]
Why TEPCO is Risking the Removal of Fukushima Fuel Rods. The Dangers of Uncontrolled Global Nuclear Radiation
By Yoichi Shimatsu Global Research, November 24, 2013 After repeated delays since the summer of 2011, the Tokyo Electric Power Company has launched a high-risk operation to empty the spent-fuel pool atop Reactor 4 at the Dai-ichi (No.1) Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant. The urgency attached to this particular site, as compared with reactors damaged in meltdowns, arises from several factors: - over 400 tons of nuclear material in the pool could reignite - the fire-damaged tank is tilting badly and may topple over sooner than later - collapse of the structure could trigger a chain reaction and nuclear blast, and - consequent radioactive releases would heavily contaminate much of the world. The potential for disaster at the Unit 4 SFP is probably of a higher magnitude than suspected due to the presence of fresh fuel rods, which were delivered during the technical upgrade of Reactor 4 under completion at the time of the March 11, 2011 earthquake and tsunami. The details of that reactor overhaul by GE and Hitachi have yet to be disclosed by TEPCO and the Economy Ministry and continue to be treated as a national-security matter. Here, the few clues from whistleblowers will be pieced together to decipher the nature of the clandestine activity at Fukushima No.1. [Fukushima]
N.Korea Extends Range of Anti-Ship Missiles
North Korea has developed an improved missile with a range of 180-300 km based on the Chinese Silkworm ground-to-ship missile. "Since 2003, the North has kept testing the new KN-01 ground-to-ship missile," a government source here said Thursday. "It has now completed an improved version and deployed such missiles in South Hwanghae Province." Until recently the KN-01 was believed to have a range of 160 km, meaning the North has managed to nearly double the range, making it easier to target South Korean ships in the West Sea.
Meanwhile, the South Korean military is staging an exercise in preparation for local provocations from the North on Friday, a day before the third anniversary of the North's shelling of Yeonpyeong Island. The Ministry of Patriots and Veterans Affairs will mark the third anniversary of the shelling at the War Memorial of Korea on Saturday. [Military balance] [Yeonpyeong] [Provocation] [Inversion]
Korean Satellite Launched into Orbit
Korea's first satellite equipped with infrared radar was successfully launched aboard Russia's Dnepr rocket on Thursday. The satellite was launched from the Yasny Launch Base in Russia. The Science Ministry said the satellite detached from the rocket 929 seconds after takeoff and successfully established contact with Norway's Svalbard Satellite Station in the Arctic at 89 minutes after takeoff. The satellite is Korea's third for space observation, and the first carrying Korea's own near-infrared ray imaging system. [Satellite]
Work of the Advisory Board on Disarmament Matters Report of the Secretary-General
Summary The Advisory Board on Disarmament Matters held its fifty-ninth session in New York from 27 February to 1 March 2013 and its sixtieth session in Geneva from 26 to 28 June 2013. The Board focused its deliberations during its sessions on the following substantive items on its agenda: (a) the relations between nuclear-weaponfree zones in advancing regional and global security; and (b) disarmament and security implications of emerging technologies. [Disarmament] [UNUS] [NWFS]
N. Korea can produce uranium-based nuclear bomb: Seoul's defense chief
2013/11/20 16:00 By Kim Eun-jung SEOUL, Nov. 20 (Yonhap) -- North Korea has made progress in its nuclear weapons program to a level that it can produce weapons-grade uranium to make a bomb on its own, South Korea's defense chief said Wednesday. "We evaluate that North Korea can build a nuclear weapon using uranium," Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin said during an interpellation session at the National Assembly, giving a rare assessment on the reclusive nation's nuclear program. Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin speaks during the interpellation session on foreign affairs, defense and unification held at the National Assembly on Nov. 20, 2013. (Yonhap) In regard to North Korea's 5-megawatt reactor that was reactivated in April, Kim said Seoul is closely monitoring activities at the Yongbyon complex where a uranium enrichment plant and a reactor are located. "We consider (the North) is in the test phase, keeping a close eye on the full-scale operation (of the reactor)," Kim said. [HEU]
Iran urges elimination of all nukes ahead of talks
By Edith M. Lederer | AP - UNITED NATIONS Published: 05th November 2013 10:39 AM Last Updated: 05th November 2013 10:49 AM Iran's U.N. ambassador called nuclear weapons the greatest threat to present and future generations on Monday, just days before Tehran resumes talks with six world powers aimed at reining in its suspect nuclear program. Mohammad Khazaee told a meeting of the General Assembly's disarmament committee that "the total elimination of these inhuman weapons is the only absolute guarantee against their threat or use." [Disarmament]
Real Fake Missiles: North Korea’s ICBM Mockups Are Getting Scary Good
Print This Post | Email This Post | By Jeffrey Lewis and John Schilling 04 November 2013 This is 1977 photograph of a mockup of an MX missile, later named the Peacekeeper. We begin our discussion of North Korea’s Hwaseong-13 road-mobile, intercontinental ballistic missile with this image to make a point that should be obvious: It is not unusual for countries to build mockups or simulators of missiles as an early step in the process of developing new ballistic missiles. Even if this missile is a “fake,” the MX program was very real. The United States would ultimately build 114 Peacekeeper missiles, which were deployed between 1986 and 2005. Ask former officials from the Reagan Administration, they will tell you these missiles helped win the Cold War. Mockups or simulators provide important indications of future developments in foreign ballistic missile programs. The United States saw mockups of two new missiles near Taepo-dong in North Korean in early 1994, long before North Korea flight-tested the Taepodong in 1998 and the Taepodong-2 in 2006.[1] (The name of both missiles comes from this early sighting of mockups.) It is important to keep in mind the value of assessing mockups when one hears that the six Hwaseong-13 road-mobile, intercontinental ballistic missiles paraded in North Korea in April 2012 and July 2013 were “fakes.” Real fakes, perhaps. [Rocketry] [ICBM]
DPRK Delegate Re-clarifies Its Will to Continue Launching Application Satellites
Pyongyang, October 28 (KCNA) -- The DPRK delegate speaking at the meeting of the Fourth Committee of the 68th UN General Assembly on Oct. 23 re-clarified the will of the DPRK to continue launching application satellites for the development of the nation's economy and the improvement of the people's living standard. The delegate in a speech made during the discussion on the agenda item "International Cooperation in Peaceful Use of Outer Space" appreciated the efforts of the UN Office for Outer Space Affairs and the committee for the development and application of space science and technology in all countries and for the increase of the capabilities of developing countries to explore space, in particular. The DPRK is also directing efforts to developing space for peaceful purposes in keeping with the worldwide trend of space exploration, he said, referring to a series of measures taken by the DPRK government to intensify the work for space development while launching satellites several times. He went on to say: The DPRK's exploration of space is an exercise of legitimate independent right by a sovereignty state. It is publicly recognized by international law and inviolable. Nevertheless, the hostile forces unreasonably claim that the DPRK is not allowed to launch satellites even for peaceful purposes, though other countries do. [Satellite] [UNUS] [Double standards]

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OCTOBER 2013

US and Chinese officials meet to discuss resuming six-party talks
Posted on : Oct.30,2013 14:59 KST Officials hoping series of meetings can build momentum for a resumption of talks on N. Korean denuclearization By Park Hyun, Washington correspondent The Chinese and US senior representatives to the six-party talks on the North Korean nuclear issue met in Washington on Oct. 28 to discuss resuming the talks. According to US State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki, Chinese special representative for Korean Peninsula affairs Wu Dawei met in Washington with special representative Glyn Davies, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs Daniel Russell, and other senior officials in the department to hold “productive” discussions on North Korea-related issues. Psaki also said that Wu planned to meet Davies again on Oct. 29, as well as Undersecretary for Political Affairs Wendy Sherman and White House National Security Council senior Asian affairs director Evan Medeiros. [Six Party Talks]
Two New Tunnel Entrances Spotted at North Korea’s Punggye Nuclear Test Site
By 38 North 23 October 2013 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Nick Hansen Summary Recent commercial satellite imagery has identified two new tunnel entrances and continued excavation at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site. Excavation in the West Portal area, where North Korea’s 2009 and 2013 nuclear tests were conducted, and the South Portal area may be intended to complete new tunnels that will be used for future nuclear tests. An alternative explanation, particularly for work in the West Portal area, is that North Korea is digging a secondary entrance to a nearby existing tunnel intended, for example, to allow increased traffic flow or ventilation.[1] Whether Pyongyang is following this practice remains unclear. Continued observation of excavation at Punggye-ri should reveal additional information since it may take as long as one to two years to dig separate new tunnels. There are no signs that Pyongyang plans to conduct a nuclear test in the immediate future. However, these ongoing activities as well as upgrades to the site’s support areas indicate North Korea is preparing to conduct additional detonations in the future as part of its nuclear weapons development program. New Tunnel Entrance in the West Portal Area Commercial satellite imagery from September 27, 2013 indicates continued excavation in the West Portal area, site of the 2009 and 2013 nuclear detonations, and the presence of a new tunnel entrance (adit) (figure 1). Imagery from a month earlier shows the head works—the framing for the tunnel entrance—and cart tracks leading into the entrance, only to be covered by what is probably a camouflage net by late September (figure 2). Imagery from 2009 gives a clearer view of entrances probably used in the earlier tests in relationship to the new entrance (figure 3).
Major Construction Progresses at Sohae: Possible Prep for Mobile Missile Systems
By 38 North 28 October 2013 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Nick Hansen Summary New commercial satellite imagery indicates that North Korea is moving ahead with major construction projects at its Sohae Satellite Launching Station (Tongchang-ri). While it is too soon to reach a definitive judgment, evidence is growing that these activities are intended to support the two main priorities for North Korea’s rocket program—launches of larger rockets and of new mobile missiles—and that Sohae will be the main, and perhaps sole, test facility in the future. Imagery from October 9, 2013 indicates that a possible second flat mobile missile launch pad, in addition to another possible pad first identified in August, may now be under construction. Moreover, a new road connecting the new launch area with the missile assembly building and Sohae railhead is being built along with two new bridges. The new road has been strengthened and widened for use by heavy vehicles, possibly including transporter-erector-launchers (TELs) for mobile missiles. While work on the first flat mobile launch pad stopped over the past two months, construction activities at the Unha launch gantry have continued, possibly to upgrade that facility to handle future larger rockets. Other activities intended to upgrade Sohae for increased future operations, such as the construction of permanent instrumentation buildings to monitor tests, have also moved forward. Activities related to the upgrading of the Unha launch pad may be completed soon, allowing Pyongyang to proceed with another space launch should it decide to do so. Other construction activities, particularly those related to the possible flat mobile missile launch pads, will take longer to complete, perhaps by mid-2014 depending on the rate of construction. [SLV] [Missile]
First astronaut under fire
By Kim Jae-won Yi So-yeon What happened to the government’s project to train astronauts after it spent about 26 billion won ($25 million) to feature the nation’s first astronaut Yi So-yeon several years ago? It seems to have ended up being a one-time brouhaha, failing to produce visible research or any aerospace-industry-boosting follow-up measures, an opposition lawmaker said Monday. Rep. Choi Jae-cheon of the Democratic Party (DP) said that the government invested 25.6 billion won in the Korean Astronaut Project for three years between 2005 and 2008, but no meaningful achievements have been reported in the aerospace industry. Yi is now doing an MBA in the U.S., showing there is no systematic education program in honing human resources in aerospace science, Choi said. “Dr. Yi So-yeon was the symbol of Korea’s aerospace science, but she has not contributed to developing the nation’s technology in the field. Rather, she went abroad to take an MBA program, proving that the government has no strategy in managing key human resources in aerospace science,” said Choi in a press release. [Aerospace]
Experts observe development in North Korea’s nuclear program
Posted on : Oct.21,2013 15:48 KST Siegfried Hecker, former director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory With development, possibility of North Korea giving up its nuclear program becoming less likely By Park Hyun, Washington correspondent Leading North Korea experts in the US are warning that the country’s nuclear capabilities are becoming more sophisticated, and it is looking less likely that Pyongyang will give up its nuclear program. Siegfried Hecker, a renowned nuclear researcher at Stanford University, wrote in an article for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists that North Korea was likely to “operate the restarted 5-megawatt reactor [at Yongbyon] for two years with a full load of 8,000 fuel rods, cool this spent fuel and extract roughly 10 to 12 kilograms of plutonium within three years.” According to Hecker, this means North Korea would be able to produce roughly one nuclear weapon per year. “Such a production rate does not constitute a game changer, but it would give North Korea more plutonium to test in order to refine its nuclear devices to fit on its missiles,” he wrote. Hecker also said North Korea could repurpose its experimental light water reactor (ELWR) from electricity production to produce 10 to 15 kilograms of weapons-grade plutonium a year. “A more troublesome alternative . . . would be if Pyongyang built a copy of the 50-megawatt reactor that was near completion in 1994, but then abandoned because of the Agreed Framework [in 1994],” he wrote. [US NK negotiations] [Renege]
Extended Deterrence, Assurance, and Reassurance in the Pacific during the Second Nuclear Age
Linton Brooks and Mira Rapp-Hooper The paperback edition of Strategic Asia 2013-14: Asia in the Second Nuclear Age is now available for preorder. Preorders will ship on October 2. The Kindle edition will be released on October 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This chapter analyzes the complex relationships that exist around the extended deterrence of China and North Korea, the assurance of U.S. allies in Asia of the reliability of U.S. security guarantees, and the reassurance of China that the U.S. does not seek to thwart its peaceful rise. [China confrontation] [US NK policy] [F&E]
Concept for Operations in a Nuclear Environment
Author/Editor: H. W. Oliver, R. H. Smiley, G.L. Theroux Classification: Unclassified Read the full report: 408-H.-W.-Oliver-R.-H.-Smiley-G.L.-Theroux.pdf Subject: Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons Policy, military operations, The USSR increased its military abilities throughout the Cold War instituting a constant threat to U.S. supremacy in the Asia-Pacific region and on the international scene. American strategy towards the Soviets stressed deterrence, but officials also stressed the importance of military readiness in the face of attack. The concept of full nuclear war was still being studied and adjustments to fighting tactics were constantly updated to scientific findings about what a nuclear war may look like. This report provides a concept for the conduct of U.S. Army military operations in a nuclear environment. The report discusses the operational environment, limitations, operational fundamentals, operational concept, survivability, and functional areas. “After all, places of strength in the enemy’s array of forces only until nuclear strikes are delivered against them. Identified, distant enemy weaknesses or vulnerabilities are exploited by ground and air delivered fires — nuclear, nonnuclear or combinations thereof — to the extent permitted by available resources and to the degree sought by the objectives of delay, denial disruption or destruction.” (p 16-17) ABSTRACT: This paper provides a concept for the conduct of military operations by US Army forces in a nuclear environment; sets forth issues impacting the implementation of the US Army's operational concept for the conduct of the Air-Land Battle. It considers warfighting at corps and below in a nuclear environment; influences and constraints external to corps, while recognized, are not explicitly addressed. The concept is equally applicable in an inactive nuclear environment wherein nuclear use has not occurred, but is possible or imminent; it can be expanded to include operations in a combined conventional-nuclear-chemical environment. There are two basic elements of a nuclear battlefield environment which must be understood and mastered by US forces: the effective employment of nuclear weapons in both offensive and defensive operations, the increased vulnerability of forces and teh resultant requirement for implementation of extraordinary survivability and reconstitution measures. This report was released to the Nautilus Institute under the US Freedom of Information Act (FOIA). Read the original report online: http://nautilus.org/foia-document/concept-for-operations-in-a-nuclear-environment [US military]
Nuclear Security: Seoul, the Netherlands, and Beyond
Kenneth N. Luongo Michelle Cann The 2014 Nuclear Security Summit (NSS) in the Netherlands will be the third in a series of heads-of-state summits to prevent nuclear terrorism by strengthening global nuclear security. At the first summit in Washington in 2010, leaders endorsed a four-year international effort to secure all vulnerable nuclear materials worldwide. At the second summit in Seoul in 2012, leaders expanded their focus beyond protecting fissile materials to include radioactive source security and the safety and security interface at nuclear facilities. This broader definition of the nuclear security agenda provides a stable foundation for the 2014 summit to build upon.
Anniversary of Six Party Talks: Commemoration, Wake, or Revival?
by Scott A. Snyder September 19, 2013 China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi delivers a speech at the opening ceremony of the tenth anniversary of the Six Party Talks at Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing, September 18, 2013. (Jason Lee/courtesy Reuters)China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi delivers a speech at the opening ceremony of the tenth anniversary of the Six Party Talks at Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing, September 18, 2013. (Jason Lee/courtesy Reuters) The Chinese government held an unusual commemorative ceremony this week to mark the tenth anniversary of the establishment of the Six Party Talks and the eighth anniversary of the Six Party Joint Statement. The Joint Statement at the time seemed vague and incomplete, but it turns out that the consensus forged in favor of Korean peninsular denuclearization, peace, diplomatic normalization, and economic development was a high-water mark for the talks. In light of North Korea’s repeated nuclear tests and its open rejection of its Joint Statement commitment to abandon nuclear weapons, the Six Party Talks have stalemated for five years. Now China is trying to revive the Joint Statement and breathe new life into the Six Party process. [Six Party Talks]
Nuclear weapons are the U.S.’s instruments of peace
By Robert Spalding, Saturday, October 5, 1:06 AM Robert Spalding is a military fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. The U.S. rebalance — or “pivot” — to the Asia-Pacific must be peaceful and affordable. Unfortunately, our country neglects the one aspect of national defense that can deliver this outcome: nuclear weapons. As I entered active duty as a bomber pilot at the end of the Cold War, I was among those who questioned the continued relevance of nuclear weapons. The Cold War was over and, thankfully, we had escaped nuclear armageddon. I believed it was time to put away the bomb and focus on more relevant conventional capabilities. Lately, however, I have become keenly aware of the need for our nuclear force. . The United States won the Cold War by maintaining a credible nuclear force to stand in opposition to the Soviet Union. U.S. nuclear weapons defended Europe against a numerically superior conventional force. Missile-equipped submarines and the bombers and intercontinental ballistic missiles of Strategic Air Command were the nuclear triad that deterred the Soviets from attacking. These forces were at the forefront of our defense strategy and received priority in both rhetoric and funding. The U.S. nuclear force exists to keep a threshold on the level of violence. This is especially important when disagreements between nuclear powers move beyond dialogue. While numerous smaller wars existed in proxy states during the Cold War, direct conflict between nuclear powers always deescalated back to dialogue. It is possible that the international body politic that arose after World War II is the reason we have not witnessed a third world war. Yet it is also possible that has not occurred because the threat of nuclear holocaust is too menacing. More likely, it is a combination of the two. To be credible, nuclear weapons must be a key component underpinning relevant U.S. foreign policy [Nuclear weapons] [US global strategy]
More Evidence That North Korea Has Restarted Its 5 MWe Reactor
By 38 North 02 October 2013 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Nick Hansen New commercial satellite imagery from September 19, 2013 provides further evidence that North Korea has restarted its 5 MWe plutonium production reactor located at the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center. Imagery shows hot waste water being released into the Kuryong River from a recently installed drainpipe, part of a new secondary cooling system completed in summer 2013. This release of hot water indicates that the reactor is in operation and the turbine powered electrical generators are producing power. [Yongbyon]
Divine Art of Subtlety and Secrecy in the Age of Nuclear Byzantine Generals
by Peter Hayes September 19, 2013 Peter Hayes writes: "Ultimately, commanders have to trust themselves, their staff, and their organization. But if ...problem[s] reside in the nature of nuclear warfare itself, and the organizations are incapable of perfect implementation of nuclear strategy...then nuclear weapons are fatally flawed as a means of warfare..." Hayes quips, "Perhaps [we] should revise [the NRA] slogan: “Guns don’t kill people, people do” to: “Nuclear weapons don’t start nuclear wars; nuclear weapons organizational systems and people do.”

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SEPTEMBER 2013

N.Korea Could Conduct More Nuke Tests, Pundit Warns
North Korea is likely to conduct one or more nuclear test to miniaturize warheads that could be attached to missiles, a Chinese expert warns. Li Bin, a professor of Tsinghua University, told a conference hosted by the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul on Wednesday, "North Korea conducted its first nuclear test with a relatively small nuclear weapon but failed to achieve a normal explosive yield. It must have made the weapons bigger to increase their explosive yield in its second and third nuclear tests." "The North will therefore probably conduct at least one more nuclear test to miniaturize the weapon." The North has claimed that it succeeded in making nuclear weapons smaller and lighter with its third nuclear test, but Li said that is implausible. "The North doesn't have the technology to fit a nuclear warhead on an intercontinental ballistic missile," he added. Chu Shulong, another professor from Tsinghua University, said six-party nuclear disarmament talks do not make any sense unless the North takes action to abandon its nuclear and missile programs first. "There is a likelihood that the North will carry out another provocation similar to the one it launched early this year," Chu added. He urged South Korea, the U.S., China, and Russia to work out a military response if that happens. [Chinese IR] [Test]
US official makes open mention of N. Korean nukes
Posted on : Sep.25,2013 15:25 KST In unusual comments, Ben Rhodes describes N. Korea as having already crossed the nuclear threshold By Park Hyun, Washington correspondent Ben Rhodes, Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Communications for the White House, said on Sept. 23 that North Korea is at a different stage of nuclear development than Iran, since the North already possesses nuclear weapons. Rhodes made this statement in response to a reporter who mentioned that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu compared Iran to North Korea and asked whether this was an appropriate comparison. The question was asked during a press gaggle held aboard Air Force One, the plane used by the US President, en route to New York. US intelligence officials assume that North Korea already possesses nuclear weapons, but it is highly unusual for a high-ranking official at the White House to mention North Korea‘s possession of nuclear weapons in a public setting. The US does not officially recognize North Korea as a nuclear power.
US scholar: N. Korean can produce nukes without imports
Posted on : Sep.25,2013 15:29 KST Modified on : Sep.25,2013 15:30 KST Joshua Pollack argues that without need for imports, sanctions won’t be able to stop N. Korea’s nuclear program By Park Byong-su, staff reporter North Korea possesses the capability to produce the key parts for uranium enrichment facilities on its own, an American expert on arms control has claimed. Such facilities are essential for making nuclear weapons. Joshua Pollack, who works for Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), made the argument in a paper submitted to an international academic conference that was made public on Sep. 24. Pollack said he found evidence in North Korean media reports and unclassified documents suggesting that North Korean scientists have the technology to produce centrifuges by themselves without help from the outside world A centrifuge is an apparatus that enriches uranium to a level of 90% or more, turning it into the raw material for nuclear weapons. The concentration of uranium in naturally occurring ore is only 0.7%.
Probable Rocket Engine Test Conducted at Sohae
By 38 North 23 September 2013 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Nick Hansen. Summary New commercial satellite imagery indicates North Korea probably tested a long-range rocket engine between August 25and 30, 2013 at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station. This conclusion is based on analysis of imagery from before and after the probable test and a combination of indicators including the presence of a probable rocket stage, a crane necessary to mount and remove the rocket engine and propellant tanks on the test stand, instrumentation used to monitor tests as well as changes in the appearance of vegetation in front of the flame trench (from green to brown) and inside the flame trench located at the stand. While the dimensions of the rocket stage—about 2.5 meters wide and 9-10 meters long—indicate use as a long-range rocket engine, it is not possible to positively identify the type of engine tested given uncertainties in the resolution of commercial satellite imagery. Other possibilities include the second stage of the Unha-3 space launch vehicle (SLV), an improved version of that engine or a second or third stage engine for a much larger rocket suspected to be under development. [SLV]
N.Korea Is Mad to Restart Nuclear Reactor
North Korea seems to have restarted a plutonium-producing reactor in Yongbyon, according to the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. "The white coloration and volume are consistent with steam being vented because the electrical generating system is about to come online, indicating that the reactor is in or nearing operation," it said. Since the early 1990s, North Korea has been using spent nuclear fuel rods from the Yongbyon plant to produce plutonium for nuclear weapons that it tested in 2006 and 2009. The North has always used the reactor as a bargaining chip to get the U.S. to sit down at the negotiating table. Back in April, North Korea once again threatened to restart the reactor. Given all that, this is not an alarming development. [Yongbyon]
US extending nuke cooperation with S. Korea
The U.S. House of Representatives unanimously approved a bill Tuesday on extending the South Korea-U.S. civilian nuclear agreement for two years. The bill, H.R. 2449, introduced by Rep. Ed Royce (R-CA), the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, calls for a rollover of the current accord originally scheduled to expire in March next year. Under the legislation, the current "123 agreement" will be effective till March 2016.

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AUGUST 2013

N. Korea seeks four-party nuclear talks
BEIJING, Aug. 27 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's top military official proposed talks with South Korea, China and the United States to discuss its nuclear weapons program, but the proposal was met with skepticism in Seoul and Washington, a diplomatic source said Tuesday. Choe Ryong-hae, the vice marshal of the North Korean People's Army, proposed the "four-party talks" to China in May, when he visited Beijing as a "special envoy" of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, the source said. The North's proposal for such talks, which include all parties to the six-nation nuclear negotiations aimed at ending its nuclear weapons program except for Russia and Japan, was apparently aimed at speeding up the process to reconvene the broader multilateral forum, according to the source. "Vice Marshal Choe made the proposal for the four-party talks during his visit to Beijing in May, but such talks are unlikely because there is no pledge from Pyongyang to take sincere steps toward denuclearization," the source said. "The U.S. side won't agree to hold such talks unless North Korea meets preconditions on denuclearization." [Overture] [rebuff]
Major Construction at the Sohae Rocket Test Site
By 38 North 30 August 2013 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Nick Hansen. Summary New commercial satellite imagery indicates that North Korea has embarked on a major construction program at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station (commonly referred to at “Tongchang-ri”), mounting six important new projects at the site since mid-2013. This activity, along with Pyongyang’s abrupt halt of a program to modernize its older Tonghae launch facility in late 2012, suggests that Sohae will remain Pyongyang’s main long-range rocket test center in the future. Of particular interest is a construction site 100 meters west of the existing launch pad on level ground. Aligned on the same azimuth as the existing pad that would enable southward launches like the two previous Unha rocket launches, the area is about 65 meters long and 40 meters wide at the west end where the foundation for an end wall is visible. It is much smaller than the existing launch pad that measures 56 meters wide and 190 meters long. While it is too early to identify the exact purpose of this site, one possible explanation is that Pyongyang is building a “flat launch pad,” a large concrete area that would be used to test mobile ballistic missiles fired from a transporter-erecter launcher (TEL).[1] Alternatively, a modified version of the KN-08 long-range mobile missile could launch small satellites from the pad although this would probably require a more complex arrangement with a permanent gantry tower and flame trench. [SLV]
Non-State Nuclear Attack Urban Target Arrays—Pathways and Risk Reduction Strategies
A determined non-state actor armed with a weapon of mass destruction will be able to wreak havoc of global proportions. Some cities are now relatively well defended, with partial inspections of incoming airline bags, containers, and other cross border flows. But it is patently beyond the control of states to monitor all flows. And if one city, for example, Los Angeles, becomes relatively “hard” to target, there’s no shortage of “soft” cities to target instead. Although good data are hard to come by, it is possible to be more somewhat more precise about the array of possibility in this context. Two decades ago, there were already about 3,000 cities with 100,000 or more people on Earth.[1] J. Vernon Henderson estimates that there were 2,684 cities with populations of at least 100,000 or more people in 2000.[2] Yet another accounting states that by 2009, there were about 21,905 urban areas containing more than 5,000 people, implying that there are about 18,948 urban areas sized between 5,000 and 100,000 people.)[3] [Nuclear terrorism]
"1945-1998" by Isao Hashimoto
Multimedia artwork "2053" - This is the number of nuclear explosions conducted in various parts of the globe.* Profile of the artist: Isao HASHIMOTO Born in Kumamoto prefecture, Japan in 1959. Worked for 17 years in financial industry as a foreign exchange dealer. Studied at Department of Arts, Policy and Management of Musashino Art University, Tokyo. Currently working for Lalique Museum, Hakone, Japan as a curator. Created artwork series expressing, in the artist's view, "the fear and the folly of nuclear weapons": 1."1945-1998" © 2003 2."Overkilled" 3."The Names of Experiments" About "1945-1998" ©2003 "This piece of work is a bird's eye view of the history by scaling down a month length of time into one second. No letter is used for equal messaging to all viewers without language barrier. The blinking light, sound and the numbers on the world map show when, where and how many experiments each country have conducted. I created this work for the means of an interface to the people who are yet to know of the extremely grave, but present problem of the world." * The number excludes the announced nuclear tests by North Korea. [Test]
The Six-Party Talks have had their day: time for an expanded dialogue
August 9th, 2013 Author: Leszek Buszynski, ANU The Six-Party Talks have had their day and reviving them would only bring about more disappointment and recrimination. A better option would be to add more parties to the negotiations to balance out China’s influence as the dominant regional power. The talks made sense when they were first convened in August 2003 to prevent North Korea from developing nuclear weapons. The Hu Jintao government was concerned that the Bush administration would resort to force as it had done in Iraq and Afghanistan. Beijing also feared that the North’s nuclear program would push Japan and South Korea closer to forming an anti-China grouping with the US, and release the constraints preventing Japan from rearming and developing nuclear weapons of its own. This considerations meant that China was willing to work with other parties and assume the pivotal role of a mediator in the talks, while being constrained by its special relationship with the North. [Six Party Talks] [China confrontation]

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JULY 2013

Deep Borehole Disposal of Spent Fuel and Other Radioactive Wastes
by Neil A. Chapman 25 July 2013 This report by Neil Chapman “provides a review of the status of international research and policy on the use of very deep boreholes (several kilometres in depth) for the disposal of radioactive wastes.” While reviewing numerous studies on deep borehole disposal of spent fuel, HLW and other radioactive wastes, Chapman finds that “a key gap continues to be a comprehensive operational and post-closure safety assessment of DBD.” He also finds that “the lack of full-scale trials of certain aspects of the technology (not necessarily at envisaged disposal depths) is holding up further development.” [Nuclear waste]
Analysis shows North Korea may have stopped bigger rocket development
By Associated Press, Updated: Tuesday, July 23, 6:13 PM SEOUL, South Korea — An eight-month construction standstill at a North Korean site meant to launch bigger and better long-range rockets may signal Pyongyang is slowing or even stopping development of larger rockets, according to a new analysis of recent satellite imagery. The sight of unfinished roads and grass growing from the foundation of a large new rocket assembly building could be welcome news for Washington and others who see Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile work as a threat — though it is unknown if the work stoppage is only temporary. [SLV]
North Korea Halts Construction of New Long-Range Rocket Launch Facilities
By 38 North 23 July 2013 A 38 North exclusive with contributions by Nick Hansen Summary New commercial satellite imagery confirms that major construction projects at the Tonghae Satellite Launching Ground have been halted. These projects—the building of a new launch pad, missile assembly building and launch control center—are designed to handle larger rockets than the Unha-3 space launch vehicle (SLV) able to handle heavier payloads and to fly greater distances. Work slowed and stopped at the end of 2012. While it was expected that construction would continue this spring, new imagery indicates that work had not resumed as of late May 2013, almost eight months later. Exactly why construction has halted remains unclear. Initial speculation at the end of 2012 focused on the need for equipment and troops elsewhere to repair damage done by last summer’s typhoons and heavy rains. That explanation now seems less plausible given the amount of time that has passed since last year’s rains. An alternative explanation is that the DPRK may have decided that testing from the modern, already completed Sohae Satellite Launching Station will be sufficient to support its development of rockets larger than the Unha. Or the stoppage may reflect a decision either to slow or even halt development of larger rockets. If work resumes, completion of the new launch facilities at Tonghae would appear to be at least a year behind the estimate of their original schedule. Depending on the pace of renewed construction, the facility may not be complete until 2017. [SLV]
UK Trident Review Released: Maintaining UK Deterrence and Allied Security
By Angela Weaver, CSIS, Jul 18, 2013, The British government recently released its Trident Alternatives Review, a report meant to assess alternatives to like-for-like renewals of the Trident nuclear submarine fleet. The report has concluded that while there are alternatives to replacing the fleet, “none of these alternative systems and postures offers the same degree of resilience as the current posture of continuous at-sea deterrence, nor could they guarantee a prompt response in all circumstances. " These conclusions have sparked a fierce debate between the Liberal Democrats, the party who worked to have the review conducted, and the Conservatives, who do not see any alternative to the renewal of the nuclear fleet. Prime Minister David Cameron said he found “no evidence that there are credible alternatives,” and Defense Secretary Phillip Hammond called the Liberal Democratic position on the issue “naïve and reckless.” Both men remain committed to the Trident system as an effective deterrent for Britain as well as a physical symbol of their continued commitment to allied security; commitments on which the United States relies as defense budgets in both the United States and Britain continue to undergo review. [Deterrence] [Nuclear weapons]
Archbishop of Wales Barry Morgan Calls on UK to Abandon Nuclear Missiles
By David Williamson, Global Research, July 19, 2013, Photo: HMS Victorious, one of Britain’s Trident nuclear submarines Archbishop of Wales Barry Morgan has called on the UK government to abandon its nuclear weapons, insisting the deterrent ‘cannot be justified on moral, strategic or economic grounds’ Archbishop of Wales Barry Morgan and other faith leaders have urged the UK Government to abandon nuclear missiles on moral, strategic and economic grounds. The calls come in the same week that the findings of a Government report led the Lib Dems to argue that Britain could cease to have a continuous-at-sea deterrent, cut the submarine fleet from four boats to three and save £4bn on the estimated £20bn to £25bn cost of renewing the Trident missile system. Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg yesterday insisted the country can be kept safe without a Cold War-era nuclear weapons policy that enables the UK to “flatten Moscow at the push of a button”. But Dr Morgan called for the Government to go further and argued that Britain would now be better off without nuclear weapons.
The Anglican archbishop said: “Replacing Trident cannot be justified morally, strategically or financially. Morally, we can’t argue for non-proliferation and against possession of nuclear weapons in other countries, such as Iran and North Korea, if we continue to invest in our own. [Nuclear weapons] [Double standards]
FACT SHEET: Nuclear Weapons Employment Strategy of the United States
Today, the President announced new guidance that aligns U.S. nuclear policies to the 21st century security environment. This is the latest in a series of concrete steps the President has made to advance his Prague agenda and the long-term goal of achieving the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons. [Nuclear weapons] [US global strategy] [Spin]
Nuclear Weapons and U.S.-China Relations: A Way Forward
By PONI Working Group on U.S.-China Nuclear Issues Contributor: Elbridge A. Colby and Abraham M. Denmark, cochairs; John K. Warden, executive director Mar 12, 2013 This report addresses the increasingly important set of issues surrounding the nuclear forces of the United States and China. It focuses on a series of policy and posture recommendations for the United States, but it does so with an eye toward U.S. allies in the region and Chinese audiences. The report also includes two appendixes—one detailing the Working Group’s assessment of China’s nuclear strategy, policy, decisionmaking, posture, and capabilities, and one summarizing the Working Group’s discussions in Beijing in September 2012. [China confrontation] [Nuclear weapons]
New Long-range Rocket Engine Tests at North Korean Launch Facility: Development Continues
By 38 North 10 July 2013 A 38 North exclusive, with contributions by Nick Hansen Summary Satellite imagery of the Sohae Satellite Launching Station (also referred to as Tongchang-ri), where North Korea conducted two long-range rocket launches in 2012, indicates that Pyongyang tested a rocket engine in late March/early April 2013. The number of tests and the type of engine tested remain unclear. However, in view of the facility’s role since mid-2008 as the primary test site for North Korea’s Unha rocket, it may have been related to that space-launch vehicle (SLV). One possibility is that the test was part of Pyongyang’s effort to develop the recently announced Unha-9 (Taepodong-3), believed to be able to lift slightly heavier satellites into orbit. The recent engine test indicates that Pyongyang continues to move forward with its SLV and long-range missile programs despite continuing United Nations sanctions and China’s public expressions of displeasure with the North’s efforts to further develop nuclear weapons and the missiles to deliver them. Rocket engine tests, while less visible, are also important in technology development. [SLV]
Key US missile interceptor fails test again, says Pentagon
Department of Defense confirms third consecutive failure of system managed by Boeing Reuters in Washington guardian.co.uk, Saturday 6 July 2013 15.43 BST A test of the only US defense against long-range ballistic missiles failed on Friday. The Department of Defense said it was the third consecutive failure involving the interceptor system that is managed by Boeing Co. "Program officials will conduct an extensive review to determine the cause or causes of any anomalies which may have prevented a successful intercept," it said in a statement. The military has tested the so-called ground-based midcourse defense system 16 times. It has succeeded eight times, with the last intercept in December 2008. The Pentagon said this week that the test would not affect its decision to bolster the US missile defense system. Defense secretary Chuck Hagel announced the move in March, following threats by North Korea. Under that plan, the Pentagon will add 14 new anti-missile interceptors at a total cost of nearly $1bn. [Missile defense] [Threat]
Nuke missile crews cite morale-sapping pressures
Posted: 06/04/2013 11:24:12 AM MDT Updated: 06/04/2013 12:09:12 PM MDT By ROBERT BURNS AP National Security Writer FILE - In this May 8, 2013 file photo, Air Force Chief of Staff... ((AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster, File)) WASHINGTON—Officers with a finger on the trigger of the Air Force's most powerful nuclear missiles are complaining of a wide array of morale-sapping pressures, according to internal emails obtained by The Associated Press. The complaints shed fresh light on dissatisfactions roiling this critical arm of the Air Force, an undercurrent that has captured the attention of the service's leaders. Key themes among the complaints include working under "poor leadership" and being stuck in "dead-end careers" in nuclear weapons, one email said. The sentiments were expressed privately by members of the 91st Missile Wing at Minot Air Force Base, N.D., in an unpublished study for the Air Force. The complaints also said there was a need for more experienced missile officers, a less arduous work schedule and "leaders who will listen." Taken together, the complaints suggest sagging morale in arguably the most sensitive segment of the American military. [US military]
Rocket crash strains Russia's troubled space program
The $200-million explosion over a Kazakhstan launchpad is the latest in a series of expensive accidents involving Russian spacecraft over the past three years. By Fred Weir, Correspondent / July 2, 2013 Moscow A Russian Proton-M rocket booster carrying three navigation satellites for the Glonass network – Russia's answer to the US GPS system – exploded within seconds of takeoff Tuesday, raining toxic debris down over a wide area around Kazakhstan's Baikonur cosmodrome. For Russia's space program, the $200-million mishap is a dismal signal that engineers may not yet have solved the underlying problems that have produced a string of costly accidents in the past three years so jarring that, at one point, the head of Russia's space agency suggested that it could only be explained by "foreign sabotage." Reports from Baikonur say that all looked well with the launch until about 10 seconds after takeoff, when the rocket wobbled, then began to fly horizontally before disintegrating in a spectacular fireball and crashing back into the spaceport. The event was broadcast live on Russian state TV, as major Russian space launches usually are. [Aerospace] [Sabotage]

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JUNE 2013

Indo-US nuclear deal: Speakers highlight reservations, double standards
By News Desk Published: June 28, 2013 ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has serious reservations over the Indo-US nuclear deal and related efforts promoting India in the international nuclear order and is closely monitoring regional and global developments in this regard. This was stated by leader of the house in the Senate, Raja Zafarul Haq while chairing a seminar at Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) on ‘Indo-US Nuclear Deal and Pakistan: The Years Ahead’ on Thursday. The seminar was also addressed by former ambassador Tariq Osman Hyder and IPS Director General Khalid Rahman. Haq said Pakistan would build upon its own strengths to improve its nuclear capabilities for civil use and maintain a formidable defence and would also explore other avenues for the purpose. [NPT] [Nuclear deal] [Double standards]
N. Korea tried to export 3,500 km-range ballistic missile
North Korea attempted to sell ballistic missiles with a range of 3,500 kilometers to a British arms dealer, an Internet media outlet based in the United States said Thursday. NK News, which specializes in providing North Korea-related information to the general public, said a recent United Nations report revealed the communist country's Haesong Trading Corp. allegedly made an offer to sell a wide range of weapons systems, including intermediate range ballistic missiles (IRBM), to an arms dealer. It did not elaborate on when the offer was made. The media source said the company asked for more than US$100 million per unit for the IRBMs. It added that while the North reportedly sold shorter range missiles modified from older SCUD rockets to some Middle East countries, this is the first time it tried offering a longer range delivery system. [Arms sales] [Missiles] [Media]
New Tunneling Activity at the North Korean Nuclear Test Site
By 38 North 25 June 2013 A 38 North exclusive with contributions by Nick Hansen and Jack Liu. Recent satellite imagery of North Korea’s Punggye-ri nuclear test site has revealed new tunneling work being done at the West Portal area, the site of the 2009 and possibly 2013 nuclear tests. This activity appears to have begun by late April 2013 and gathered momentum over the next few months. Imagery from June 1 shows a large new spoil and tailings dumpsite along the road between the West Portal and the old dump site that went into a canyon to the east. The light gray color of the new spoil/tailings indicates that it is rock from inside the mountain and not the surrounding brown dirt.
Obama Prepares to Wage Offensive, First-strike Strategic Nuclear Warfare against Russia, China, Iran, North Korea and Syria
By Francis A. Boyle Global Research, June 24, 2013 I have now had the chance to read Obama’s recently released Report on Nuclear Employment Strategy of the United States, (June 21, 2013). The critical passage can be found on page 5: “The 2010 Nuclear Posture Review established the Administration’s goal to set conditions that would allow the United States to safely adopt a policy of making deterrence of nuclear attack the sole purpose of U.S. nuclear weapons. Although we cannot adopt such a policy today, the new guidance re-iterates the intention to work towards that goal over time.” In other words, “nuclear deterrence” is not now and has not been the policy of the Obama administration going back to and including their 2010 Nuclear Posture Review as well. Since “nuclear deterrence” is not now and has never been the Obama administration’s nuclear weapons policy from the get-go, then by default this means that offensive first-strike strategic nuclear war fighting is now and has always been the Obama administration’s nuclear weapons policy. This policy will also be pursued and augmented by means of “integrated non-nuclear strike options.” (Ibid). [Nuclear weapons] [US global strategy]
NNSA OUTLINES PRICE TAG OF ‘3+2’ VISION FOR FUTURE OF NUCLEAR STOCKPILE
Implementing the Obama Administration’s “3+2” vision for the future of the nuclear stockpile could cost more than $65 billion through Fiscal Year 2038, according to the National Nuclear Security Administration’s recently released Fiscal Year 2014 Stockpile Stewardship and Management Plan. But while arms control experts have scoffed at the high price tag, the Administration says the approach is designed to save money in the long run. The “3+2” approach outlined in the 298-page document was approved late last year by the Nuclear Weapons Council and includes the production by FY 2038 of three interoperable ballistic missile warheads and two air-delivered systems: a nuclear-capable cruise missile and the B61 gravity bomb. But only this week have the potential costs of the approach been broached publicly. Overall, the plan appears to suggest that it will cost about $275 billion to maintain the nation’s nuclear weapons complex and nuclear stockpile through FY 2038. - See more at: http://www.lasg.org/press/2013/NWMM_21Jun2013.html#sthash.2X7phCyB.dpuf [Nuclear weapons]
S. Korea To Buy European Missiles
Jun. 19, 2013 - 09:12AM | By AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE SEOUL — South Korea will buy European bunker-busting missiles as the United States refused to sell the same kind of weapons to the country, the state procurement agency said Wednesday. At a meeting presided over by Defense Minister Kim Kwan-Jin, the Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) approved a plan to purchase air-to-ground missiles with a 500-kilometer (312.5-mile) range from the German-Swedish joint venture Taurus System. [Missiles] [MTCR]
N.Korea 'Willing to Resume 6-Party Talks'
North Korea's First Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye-gwan expressed "a willingness to return to long-stalled six-party talks" and resolve the nuclear issue through dialogue, China's Foreign Ministry said Wednesday. The announcement followed what was billed "strategic dialogue" with his Chinese counterpart Zhang Yesui in Beijing. Kim, who was North Korea's top negotiator in the talks, flew to Dalian right after the meeting. Dalian is the hub of North Korea-China maritime trade. A diplomatic source in Beijing said the main purpose of the Kim's visit was to try and ease Chinese sanctions against the North.
China lifts off past Europe in space travel
China's advancing technological prowess has reached the point where it has overtaken Europe in the fields of space research and travel. Germany is also finding ways to assist the Asian nation's missions. China's latest space mission to dock with an orbiting space station began this week as three astronauts blasted into orbit on a 15-day mission. Once docked, the three aboard the capsule, two men and one woman, will carry out medical and scientific experiments at China's experimental space laboratory, Tiangong 1. Tiangong, meaning heavenly palace, is illustrative of the political ambitions China has to pursue its aims in space. Consistent steps towards an ambitious space program [Aerospace]
IAEA reform is long overdue
By Yousaf Butt The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was designed as an apolitical technical agency that - among other things - takes regular accounting of member states' nuclear material to make sure none is diverted to weapons uses. However, the agency has been veering from its impartial technical mandate and is selectively pursuing certain member states based on intelligence from other states. [1] For instance, the Associated Press reported that about 80% of the evidence it has against Iran comes from its arch-adversary, the United States. The IAEA urgently needs to return to being a technical and impartial inspection shop, and not be seen as being politically biased or an extension of Western intelligence. [2] Reforming its funding stream is an overdue first step to restore confidence in the agency's impartiality and removing any potential conflicts of interest. As long as most of the IAEA's funding comes from the US and its allies, the agency is likely to have biases and be susceptible to politicization and conflicts of interest. [3] All told, about 65% of the IAEA budget is from the US and its allies, which makes the directorate especially beholden to political pressure from Washington. [IAEA] [UNUS]
[Editorial] Government must be clear on US missile defense system
Posted on : Jun.13,2013 16:34 KST Every time South Korea’s military authorities are asked whether they are participating in the US missile defense program, they always answer no. Instead they point to the “Korean Air and Missile Defense System,” or KAMD. But while the KAMD system they are building does consist of detection, identification, decision, and strike stages and is aimed at defending the country against the North Korean ballistic missile threat, they swear up and down that it is different from the missile defense program the US is leading - not that this stops them from asserting the need for intelligence sharing with the US. Whatever they may be saying, their actions show that they are moving deeper and deeper into the US system. [Missile defense]
U.S. sees China launch as test of anti-satellite muscle: source
By Andrea Shalal-Esa WASHINGTON | Wed May 15, 2013 6:43pm EDT (Reuters) - The U.S. government believes a Chinese missile launch this week was the first test of a new interceptor that could be used to destroy a satellite in orbit, one U.S. defense official told Reuters on Wednesday. China launched a rocket into space on Monday but no objects were placed into orbit, the Pentagon said on Wednesday. The object re-entered Earth's atmosphere above the Indian Ocean. "We tracked several objects during the flight but did not observe the insertion of any objects into orbit and no objects associated with this launch remain in space," said Lieutenant Colonel Monica Matoush, a Pentagon spokeswoman. The rocket reached 10,000 km (6,250 miles) above Earth, the highest suborbital launch seen worldwide since 1976, according to Jonathan McDowell at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. China has said the rocket, launched from the Xichang Satellite Launch Center in western China, carried a science payload to study the earth's magnetosphere. However, a U.S. defense official said U.S. intelligence showed that the rocket could be used in the future to carry an anti-satellite payload on a similar trajectory. Neither the U.S. official nor the Pentagon released details of what the Chinese rocket carried into space. [anti-Satellite]
Update Review of Safety Aspects of Nuclear Power Program in the Republic of Korea
Recent probes have unveiled irregularities involving a parts supplier to Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., the state-run operator of the nation’s nuclear plants. Products were certified for use despite failing to meet quality standards and the revelation led to four nuclear reactors being shut down. Concerns about the safety of South Korea’s nuclear plants have been long-standing, as the following report, prepared for the World Bank and UNDP in April of 1982, outlines. The findings of the 1982 review of the ROK’s regulatory aspects and operational safety of nuclear power plants were concerning, with the principal conclusions stating that it is “essential and urgent that there exist in the Republic of Korea a strong, independent and competent nuclear regulatory function as well as associated Korean safety laws, regulation, criteria, codes and standards.” It further state that “it is important to recognize that, by contrast to oil and coal power plants, operating nuclear power plants require continued upgrading in personnel training, equipment, and operational safety bases…” Many of the recommendations in this 30 year old report are still very salient. [Nuclear energy]
The end of ambiguity, the beginning of transparency?
10-06-2013 Bijdrage door Susi In a National Geographic documentary on the cold war, former Dutch Prime Minister Ruud Lubbers broke the cone of silence surrounding the U.S. nuclear weapons stored at the Volkel air base in the Netherlands. For decades, the Netherlands (along with most other NATO allies) have kept a policy of ambiguity around the presence of these weapons on their territories. The Germans, in their government coalition agreement of 2009, first broke the silence on this. Now the former Dutch head of state is following suit. The news has made quite a stir on twitter this morning already. With two Dutch members of parliament- Sjoerd W. Sjoerdsma (D66) and Raymond Knops (CDA) tweeting reactions and support for the removal of these weapons. [Nuclear weapons]
Grain Drying: A Glimpse of Daily Life at Yongbyon
By 38 North 07 June 2013 A 38 North exclusive with contributions by Nick Hansen, Jeffrey Lewis, Randy Ireson, and Michelle Kae The Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center has been North Korea’s main nuclear facility since the early 1960s when one of the first American spy satellites spotted construction of a small nuclear research reactor provided to North Korea by the Soviet Union. The “furniture factory” (as it was called by the original Koreans involved in the project) dramatically expanded during the 1980s. By the early 1990s, US intelligence estimated that Yongbyon could produce large amounts of plutonium, a danger that was averted by the 1994 US-North Korea Agreed Framework. The facility fell on hard times. But with the collapse of that arrangement in 2002, Yongbyon has made a comeback with the construction of both the new uranium enrichment facility unveiled in 2010 and an Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR) as well as the restart of its old 5 MWe reactor. The secret installation is located just off a narrow, bumpy and hazardous dirt road, two hours by car or 90 miles north of Pyongyang and 10 miles north of the ancient resort city of Yongbyon. For centuries, travelers stopped there on their way to view the fabled Yak Mountain (Yak-san), which is renowned for its lush springtime sea of flowering azaleas. During their first trip to the nuclear site in November 1994, the American delegation visited a nearby ancient temple where some 80,000 pages of Buddhist writings had been preserved since 500 A.D. Their young guide pointed out damaged stone artifacts in the mountain pine grove, while standing next to a sign indicating that the area had been bombed by “American imperialist swine” during the war. The Yongbyon nuclear facility is essentially a small isolated town patterned after Russia’s nuclear cities. The facility is roughly 50 square miles; it is heavily guarded and surrounded by anti-aircraft batteries. Within the complex, hundreds if not a few thousand scientists, engineers and nuclear workers along with their families live on site and work in office buildings, nuclear laboratories and other industrial facilities. Other personnel provide support services including growing food.
N.Korea Doubles Ground-to-Ground Missiles
Since 2005, North Korea has doubled the number of ground-to-ground missiles to three times the number South Korea has, an academic said Thursday. Prof. Chun Jae-sung of Seoul National University was speaking during a seminar in Seoul. "While its naval and air force capabilities are relatively weak, the North has been imporving surprise attack capabilities by focused on reinforcing weapons of mass destruction such as ballistic missiles, special warfare forces, long-range artillery and tanks," Chun said. The North has also deployed Scud B and C missiles with a range of 300 to 500 km, Rodong missiles with a range of 1,300 km, and Musudan missiles with a range of 3,000 km warfare ready, he added. He said the North has also been trying to improve short-range KN-02 missiles with a range of 120 to 160 km, which require much less preparation to fire because they use solid fuel. A researcher with a state-funded think tank said the North's recent missile test probably aimed to test precision guidance technology. Meanwhile at the same seminar, Maj. Gen. Lee Jin-won said South Korea is developing a next-generation rifle to replace the current K-1 and K-2, which will likely be deployed combat-ready by around 2020. [Military balance]
N. Korea moving ahead with construction at Yongbyon facilities
Posted on : Jun.5,2013 17:10 KST Satellite images posted on 38 North show N. Korea is close to producing weapons-grade plutonium By Park Hyun, Washington correspondent North Korea may have its Yongbyon nuclear facilities back running and capable of producing weapons-grade plutonium within as early as one to two months, according to a report on a US website.[Yongbyon] [Yongbyon]
An Emerging Fukushima Model?
Andrew DeWit Send to Kindle After two years in which international attention focused on Fukushima as an emblem of disaster, Fukushima's plans for immense floating wind farm projects have begun to attract international attention. This April 15 article “Fukushima Moves Forward With World’s Largest Wind Farm” reminds us that the prefecture’s projects are bold initiatives which could pioneer a new model of offshore and large-scale deployment. The article also lauds Fukushima’s aim of getting 40% of its power from renewables by 2020, and then fully 100% by 2040. Japan’s Agency for Natural Resources and Energy announced in Jan 2013 plans to build the world’s largest offshore wind farm near Fukushima as part of plans to reconstruct the area stricken by nuclear disaster in 2011 At the same time, other observers express concern that Fukushima’s wind-power initiatives are not sufficiently internationalized so as to draw fully on “lessons learned from the two existing full-scale floating offshore wind projects, located in Norway (from Statoil) and Portugal (Principle Power).” Johan Sandberg, head of the renewable energy department at DNV KEMA Energy & Sustainability, a consulting firm on floating offshore wind technology, warns that failure at Fukushima could impair the prospects of offshore wind in general. But Fukushima itself appears to be reaching out to the best in the business. For example, Fukushima called on US National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Director Dan Arvizu, who in late April met with the prefectural governor and headlined a major conference there. Two weeks later, Dr Arvizu lauded Fukushima’s ambitions in a very inspiring May 3 keynote at the 2013 conference on the Business of Clean Energy in Alaska. After presenting the good news on Fukushima’s initiatives as well as the NREL’s study that America could achieve over 80% renewable in its power mix by 2050, using technology already available, Arvizu made it very clear that the crucial element is not technological breakthroughs, but rather political will. I argue in detail below that if one looks closely at Fukushima, as well as Japan’s subnational governments in general, one finds plenty of political will and concrete action. This comes as something of a surprise, to be frank, as the general narrative on Japan and its power holders has been that the dominance of the nuclear-favouring Abe regime means the decline of the pro-renewable and anti-nuclear movement spawned by Fukushima. The evidence suggests, however, that Japanese power policy and politics is becoming decentralized and distributed. An antipathetic, or merely incompetent, cabinet can surely slow down this shift away from centralized and nuclear power toward decentralized renewables. But as we shall see, the momentum and scale of the shift suggest that it may be unstoppable. [Nuclear energy] [Wind energy]
[Editorial] End reckless emphasis on spent nuclear fuel reprocessing
Posted on : Jun.4,2013 15:08 KST A seventh round of negotiations to amend the South Korea-US Atomic Energy Agreement began on June 3 in Seoul. The two-day talks are the first since the two sides pledged to extend the agreement’s deadline two years from its original date of March 2014 and hold quarterly negotiations on it, a decision reached after South Korea and the US failed to bridge their differences during a sixth round of talks held in Washington in April ahead of a May summit. But while President Park Geun-hye has continually emphasized the importance of amending the agreement, the mood at the talks is low-key, even after Park called explicitly for a “more advanced and mutually beneficial” agreement at her summit with US President Barack Obama and in her address to US Congress. Two possible reasons for the lack of tension are the pressure drop after the deadline extension and the replacement of the chief US representation in the interim. Seoul, for its part, appears to have made inadequate preparations for talks, with Minister of Foreign Affairs Yun Byung-se complaining about “the failure to allocate enough staff to our atomic energy negotiation team to match the importance of the issue.” But the biggest problem may be that Seoul’s aims and strategies are both unclear and unrealistic. The “more advanced and mutually beneficial” approach favored by Park essentially involves ensuring a stable fuel supply through pyroprocessing - a method of reprocessing spent fuel - and uranium enrichment. Park has been focusing her energies on establishing South Korea’s authority to use pyroprocessing to resolve the issue of temporary storage for spent fuel, which is expected to reach full capacity at the country’s nuclear power plants starting around 2016. [Nuclear fuel cycle] [Denuclearisation]
Nuclear states developing new weapons in defiance of treaty, report claims
All five legally recognised nuclear states 'appear determined to retain nuclear arsenals indefinitely', says Stockholm institute Richard Norton-Taylor guardian.co.uk, Monday 3 June 2013 Trident submarine, Faslane The UK is seeking to replace its fleet of Trident nuclear submarines, which are coming to an end of their operational lifespan. Photograph: Andy Buchanan/AFP/Getty Images All five legally recognised nuclear states as defined by the non-proliferation treaty – China, France, Russia, the UK and US – are either deploying new nuclear weapons and delivery systems or plan to do so, according to a leading international research organisation. The countries "appear determined to retain their nuclear arsenals indefinitely", says the latest yearbook published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri). [Nuclear disarmament] [NPT]
South Korea’s nuclear power mafia controls the whole business
Posted on : Jun.3,2013 11:19 KST Investigators dispatched by the prosecutors’ office seize boxes of documents from the offices of JS Cable in Cheonan, South Chungcheong Province on April 30. JS supplied faulty cables to nuclear power plants. (Yonhap News) Recent safety violations being traced to an industry culture that lacks independent oversight and doesn’t enforce regulations By Lee Seung-jun, staff reporter Nuclear power policy and management in South Korea: a game where the players are their own referees? Critics are saying the accidents and irregularities discovered over the past two years at nuclear plants are just the tip of the iceberg for a system that has gone on for more than 50 years, where a so-called “nuclear power mafia” holds public safety and power supply in its hands. [Nuclear energy]
S. Korea renews 'firm commitment' to enriching uranium in talks with U.S.
South Korea's chief negotiator renewed his "firm commitment" on Monday to enriching uranium and reprocessing nuclear fuel for the nation's civil nuclear energy program as Seoul resumed formal negotiations with Washington aimed at revising a bilateral nuclear accord. After more than two years of negotiations, South Korea failed to win U.S. permission to enrich uranium and reprocess spent nuclear fuel in the negotiations. Instead, the allies agreed in late April to extend the current agreement by two more years until March 2016. [Nuclear fuel cycle]
June: Nuclear force reductions and modernizations continue; drop in peacekeeping troops; no progress in cluster munitions control - new SIPRI Yearbook out now
(Stockholm, 3 June 2013) Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) today launches the findings of SIPRI Yearbook 2013, which assesses the current state of international security, armaments and disarmament. Key findings include: (a) Alone among the five legally recognized nuclear weapon states, China expanded its nuclear arsenal in 2012; (b) The number of personnel deployed with peace operations worldwide is falling rapidly, due to the withdrawal from Afghanistan; (c) Progress towards a global ban on cluster munitions stalled in 2012. Read the Press release in Swedish, Catalan and Spanish (PDF). World nuclear forces—reductions and modernization continue At the start of 2013 eight states—the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan and Israel—possessed approximately 4400 operational nuclear weapons. Nearly 2000 of these are kept in a state of high operational alert. If all nuclear warheads are counted, these states together possess a total of approximately 17 265 nuclear weapons (see table), as compared with 19 000 at the beginning of 2012. [Nuclear weapons]
Update on Yongbyon: Restart of Plutonium Production Reactor Nears Completion; Work Continues on the Experimental Light Water Reactor
By 38 North 03 June 2013 A 38 North exclusive, with analysis by Jeffrey Lewis and Nick Hansen Summary New commercial satellite imagery confirms that North Korea is making important progress in activating key nuclear facilities at Yongbyon, including the 5 MWe gas-graphite reactor and the 20-30 MW(th) Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR). In addition, imagery of a transshipment yard created in 2011 for handling equipment and cargo to support construction at the ELWR and now probably the 5 MWe reactor shows a high-level of recent activity at these sites. Pyongyang is nearing completion of work necessary to restart the 5 MWe reactor used to produce North Korea’s supply of weapons-grade plutonium. A new system to provide secondary cooling for the reactor using a nearby pump house appears almost finished. Two tanks adjacent to the spent fuel handling building have also been buried to ensure adequate water is available for the safe storage of used rods from the reactor. External activity suggests that work is continuing inside the reactor building. [Yongbyon] [LWR]

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MAY 2013

Nuclear power plants shut down over fudged reports and shaky cables
Posted on : May.29,2013 14:48 KST Concern over meeting summer power demand with nuclear plants not functioning By Lee Keun-young, science correspondent and Lee Seung-jun, staff reporter Nuclear power has run into another hitch. This time, the problem is Shingori reactor 2 and Sinwolseong reactor 1. An investigation revealed that the safety of the control cables used at these reactors had not met the required standards during the testing process but that documents had been falsified to allow them to be approved anyway. With the shutdown at these reactors, operations are now suspended at 10 of the South Korea’s 23 nuclear reactors. Combined with expectations that this summer will be longer - and muggier - than usual, energy supply is facing a crisis. [Nuclear energy]
2 more nuclear reactors pulled out of service
2013-05-28 16:45 By Kim Rahn The nuclear safety authorities have halted the operation of two nuclear reactors and suspended the scheduled operation of another two after they found substandard parts were used in them. As 10 reactors out of the nation’s total of 23 are now offline, there is concern the country may experience electricity shortages and possible blackouts in the summer. [Nuclear energy]
N. Korea alludes to resuming 6 party talks, but still keeping nukes
Posted on : May.27,2013 16:00 KST Choe Ryong-hae (front), vice marshal of the (North) Korean People’s Army steps off a plane at Pyongyang’s Sunan Airport after returning from his three-day trip to China on May 24. (AP/Yonhap News) Pyongyang stepping up rhetoric aimed at Park Geun-hye; US sticking to wait-and-see approach By Kang Tae-ho, senior staff writer, Park Hyun, Washington correspondent and Seong Yeon-cheol, Beijing correspondent It is becoming increasingly likely that nothing concrete will materialize following the reference to the six-party talks made during the May 24 meeting between Chinese president Xi Jinping and Choe Ryong-hae, vice marshal of the North Korean military. North Korea is desperate to cling to its nuclear weapons, and there are no signs that this stance is changing. [Six Party Talks]
N.Korean Media Mum on Pledge to Return to 6-Party Talks
North Korean Vice Marshal Choe Ryong-hae (front) arrives in Pyongyang on Friday after wrapping up his three-day visit to China. /AP-Newsis North Korean Vice Marshal Choe Ryong-hae (front) arrives in Pyongyang on Friday after wrapping up his three-day visit to China. /AP-Newsis North Korean state media proudly reported that envoy Choe Ryong-hae met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Friday, but omitted Choe's promise to resolve the nuclear issue or Xi's repeated calls for a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula. Pundits conclude that there is little hope that North Korea will return to six-party nuclear talks that ended in 2009 [Six Party Talks]
New Korean Satellite to Be Launched in August
A new Korean multipurpose satellite will be launched on Aug. 22 from Russia's Yasny space station, the science ministry said Thursday. The Korea Aerospace Research Institute originally hoped to launch the satellite, dubbed Arirang-5, in August 2011, but the Russian government refused and asked for more money. Russia's Dnepr rocket, which was converted from an intercontinental ballistic missile, will carry the Arirang-5 into space. It is Korea's first satellite with a synthetic aperture radar that allows observation of the earth's surface even at night regardless of weather. Korea spent W238.1 billion (US$1=W1,127) to develop the satellite, which will monitor natural disasters and identify natural resources from a height of 550 km for the next five years.
US Air Force test-launches Minuteman 3 missile in California; delayed by North Korea tensions
Vandenberg Air Force Base/Associated Press - An image provided by Vandenberg Air Force Base shows an unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile being launched during an operational test Wednesday May 22, 2013, from Launch Facility-4 on Vandenberg AFB, Calif. The U.S. Air Force launched this unarmed intercontinental ballistic missile from a California base, a month after the test flight was postponed because of tensions with North Korea. By Associated Press, Thursday, May 23, 3:23 AM VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. — The U.S. Air Force launched an unarmed intercontinental ballistic missile from a California base on Wednesday, a month after the test flight was postponed because of tensions with North Korea. The Minuteman 3 lifted off at 6:27 a.m. PDT Wednesday from Vandenberg Air Force Base. It splashed down less than 30 minutes later and 4,000 miles away at the Kwajalein Atoll in the Pacific Ocean, Air Force officials said. It was the first Minuteman test-launch of 2013. Several missiles are launched from Vandenberg each year to verify the weapon system’s accuracy and reliability. The original mid-April flight was postponed by Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel amid concerns that it might be misinterpreted during a time of heightened tension with North Korea. The launch was rescheduled for Tuesday morning but was pushed back a day due to a problem with range safety instruments. The U.S. has 450 nuclear-armed Minuteman 3 missiles ready for combat use, if directed by the president. They are in underground silos in five states. [Missile] [Double standards]
N.Korea 'Tested New Rocket Launchers'
The South Korean government has concluded that the six missiles North Korea launched into the sea between Saturday and Monday aimed to test new bigger multiple rocket launchers. The missiles flew about 150 km, but their maximum range is estimated to be 180-200 km, a South Korean government official said Tuesday. Until now the North was believed to have three kinds of multiple rocket launchers -- 107 mm, 122 mm, and 240 mm with a maximum range of less than 65 km. But the new launchers could threaten South Korean military headquarters at Gyeryongdae in South Chungcheong Province and U.S. bases in Pyeongtaek and Osan, both in Gyeonggi Province, as well as the entire Seoul region.
N.Korea Fires 2 More Short-Range Missiles
North Korea launched two more short-range missiles into the sea on Monday, one in the morning and one in the afternoon, the Defense Ministry in Seoul said. They were fired from mobile launch vehicles in the same area near Wonsan, Kangwon Province and aimed away from South Korea in a northeasterly direction. They flew about 120 to 140 km.
N.Korea Fires Short-Range Missiles
North Korea launched four short-range missiles into the sea from an area near Wonsan, Kangwon Province on Saturday and Sunday. They were aimed away from South Korea in a northeasterly direction. A South Korean government source on Sunday said they were probably either new KN-09 ground-to-ground missiles with a range of 160 km or new 300 mm or larger multiple rocket launchers with a guided system. They flew for about 140 km. The first two were launched between 8 and 11 a.m., a third between 2 and 3 p.m. on Saturday, and the fourth between 3 and 4 p.m. on Sunday. White House National Security Council spokeswoman Caitlin Hayden said North Korea "will achieve nothing by threats or provocations" and only isolate itself further
N.Korea 'Has 200 Mobile Missile Launchers'
North Korea has up to 200 mobile missile launchers, twice as many as experts here had estimated, a Pentagon report claims. According to a U.S. Defense Department status report to the Senate on May 2, the North has up to 100 mobile launchers that can fire KN-02 and Scud missiles with ranges between 120 and 500 km. The report claims the North has another 100 mobile launchers that can fire medium-range missiles with a reach between 1,300 and 4,000 km. South Korea estimated in its 2012 Defense White Paper that North Korea has only around 100 mobile missile launchers.
North Korea conducts consecutive short-range projectile launches
Posted on : May.20,2013 15:33 KSTModified on : May.20,2013 15:46 KST This file image shows the launch of a SS-21 short-range missile, a Soviet prototype of the North Korean KN-02 missile. North Korea launched an undetermined projectile into the East Sea on May 17-18. (News1) Calm regional response to missiles that come as part of a series of similar moves by N. Korea By Gil Yun-hyung, staff reporter and Park Hyun, Washington correspondent For the second day in a row, North Korea lobbed short-range projectiles into the East Sea. On May 19, the South Korean Ministry of Defense announced that North Korea had shot off another short-range missile northeast over the East Sea that afternoon, following its missile launch on May 18. The previous day, North Korea had shot three missiles altogether two in the morning, and one in the afternoon toward the northeast. The ROK military has tentatively concluded that the projectiles could have been KN-02 short-range missiles or rockets with a caliber larger than 300mm and a similar trajectory.
More South Koreans support developing nuclear weapons
Growing concern about North Korea's nuclear program has led many in South Korea to favor the idea of building atomic weapons. Japan too is discussing such a move. By Barbara Demick, Los Angeles Times May 18, 2013, 6:40 p.m. SEOUL — Perhaps it is merely basic human desire to keep up with the neighbors, but an increasing number of South Koreans are saying that they want nuclear weapons too. Even in Japan, a country still traumatized by the legacy of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, there is a debate about the once-taboo topic of nuclear weapons. The mere fact that the bomb is being discussed as a policy option shows how North Korea's nuclear program could trigger a new arms race in East Asia, unraveling decades of nonproliferation efforts. The government in Pyongyang conducted its third nuclear test in February and is believed to be preparing a fourth. [Nuclearisation]
North Korea launches 3 short-range missiles
By Barbara Demick May 18, 2013, 2:07 a.m. BEIJING -- North Korea fired three short-range missiles off its east coast Saturday, following through on months of threats to conduct a missile launch. The South Korean Defense Ministry reported that it detected two launches in the morning and another in the afternoon. Its initial assessment was that the missiles were short-range surface-to-ship or surface-to-surface missiles with a range of about 72 miles, and not the new medium-range Musudan missile that analysts feared could threaten U.S. troops in Okinawa or Guam. "All missiles launched fell into the sea," a Defense Ministry official was quoted telling the country’s official Yonhap news service. He also speculated that the launches were part of a military exercise. North Korea had been threatening for months to test-fire the Musudan missile, which it had installed on a launcher on the east coast. But the missile -- as yet untested -- was taken away earlier this month without explanation. Short-range missile tests are quite common by the North Korean regime, the last one having taken place just about two months ago. [Media] [Joint US military] [Missiles]
Pit or Get Off the Shot: Is North Korea Going to Flight Test the Musudan or Not?
By Jeffrey Lewis 16 May 2013 So, are the North Koreans going to test a fricking Musudan or what? Along with many of my close friends from my days as a research assistant at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), one of my first bosses was a rather colorful retired Army Colonel who would respond to our youthful indecision with a metaphor involving bodily functions that more or less amounted to “fish or cut bait.” He worked a lot on North Korea issues, even briefly holding the KCNA-bestowed title of “human dreg” for suggesting the DPRK had a “human rights problem.” I can’t help but think fondly of Bill, sitting in his smoking office, as I wonder whether Kim Jong Un will pit or get off the shot, as it were. [Missile] [Intelligence]
Park Says Obama Is Willing to Revise Nuclear Treaty
President Park Geun-hye on Wednesday claimed U.S. President Barack Obama is willing to revise a bilateral nuclear treaty that prevents Seoul from reprocessing its growing stockpiles of spent fuel rods. She said Obama "sympathized over the need to revise the bilateral nuclear energy treaty in a forward-looking and reciprocal manner. That is what he said." Park was talking during dinner with the political editors of major newspapers and broadcasters at Cheong Wa Dae. "I told him of three important matters: disposal of nuclear waste, stable supply of raw materials for nuclear power plants, and the competitiveness of Korea's nuclear power plant exports," Park added. [US dominance]
North Korea sanctions delaying nuclear programme, says UN report
Expert panel says international sanctions are working to delay nuclear development, but luxury goods are still getting in Justin McCurry in Tokyo guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 15 May 2013 08.10 BST Pyongyang The UN report warns that Pyongyang continues to import items connected to its nuclear and missile programmes. Photograph: Xinhua /Landov/Barcroft Media International sanctions have curtailed North Korea's ability to push ahead with its nuclear weapons programme, according to a new UN report, but doubts remain about how far China will go in implementing UN resolutions passed in response to Pyongyang's nuclear and ballistic missile tests. The report, compiled by a panel of experts, also warned that North Korea is skirting bans on the import of luxury items, which are distributed by the regime to retain the loyalty of political and military elites. [Sanctions]
'Father' of Pakistan's Nukes Says N.Korea Is Ready to Attack
The colourful "father" of Pakistan's nuclear bomb, Abdul Qadeer Khan, has claimed North Korea may have perfected a nuclear weapon and long-range missile warheads, according to Al Jazeera English. Khan, a gifted scientist but shady individual, is believed to have sold nuclear technology to North Korea. "No doubt they are quite capable and they can do it," Khan told the channel. "They can even build an [intercontinental ballistic missile] if they want to." Khan admitted the North's missile technology is "crude" and "not as sophisticated as the western countries have. But sometimes a crude system will also work. It is good enough to frighten other people." Khan is revered as a national hero by some in Pakistan but spent years under house arrest for selling nuclear technology to North Korea, Libya and Iran. But in the latest interview he claimed North Korea "got all their engineers and scientists trained in China and the Soviet Union in this field." Turning to Irans suspected nuclear arms program, he called the allegations Western "propaganda," on a par with Iraq's non-existent weapons of mass destruction that duped a number of UN member states into backing the U.S. invasion in 2003. [Media] [Heading]
How to Stop Nuclear Proliferation
by MELVIN A. GOODMAN The nuclear imbroglio with North Korea has cooled off considerably, and the nuclear issues with Iran remain on the back burner. At home, however, there is a new nuclear concern that involves the removal of 17 Air Force officers in April 2013 assigned to stand watch over nuclear-tipped Minuteman missiles at Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota. In a blunt memorandum, the deputy commander of the missile unit described a “crisis” that involved “rot in the crew force.” In view of the lack of career opportunities for Air Force officers in the missile field, it should not be surprising that there has been loss of discipline, sloppy performance, and even the intentional violation of nuclear safety rules. [Nuclear disarmament]
In shift, growing NKorea nuke arsenal seen as a matter of when, not if; what to do less clear
By Associated Press, SEOUL, South Korea — For 20 years, fears about North Korea’s headlong pursuit of nuclear bombs have been deflected by admonishments not to overestimate an impoverished dictatorship prone to bragging and tantrums. Not anymore. After three nuclear tests of apparently increasing power and a long-range rocket launch that puts it a big step closer to having a missile that can carry a nuclear warhead to American shores, many believe that in a matter of years — as little as five, maybe, though the timeframe is debated — Pyongyang will have a very scary nuclear arsenal. [Nuclear weapons] [Media]
Declining Deterrent Patrols Indicate Too Many SSBNs
By Hans M. Kristensen Does the U.S. Navy have more ballistic missile submarines than it needs? Dramatic reductions in deterrent patrols – but not submarines – suggest so. Over the past thirteen years, the number of deterrent patrols conducted each year by U.S. ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) has declined by more than half. During most of the same period, the size of the SSBN fleet has remained relatively steady at 14 boats, after four were retired in 2001-2003. Yet the decline in deterrent patrols has continued. [US military] [MISCOM]
Nuclear Knock-On Effects
by Peter Hayes 9 May 2013 Peter Hayes writes that automatic budget cuts in the US will result in the shrinking of the US strategic triad. He writes “each service will maintain its nuclear mission for political-bureaucratic and ideological reasons, and the triad itself will simply get smaller, remain militarily incoherent with warheads and missiles mismatched to military mission, with less funds available for conventional deterrent forces as a result. In turn, the deficit of conventional forces will justify continued funding of nuclear forces.” Automatic budget cuts in the United States have already cramped the operations of the US military in the Pacific. However, the scale, capacity, and quality of US forces in the region today are so superior to any combination of adversaries that the cuts make little difference to its ability to conduct coercive diplomacy—today. [US global strategy] [Spin] [Nuclear weapons] [Nuclear-conventional]
Ambassador to Australia Named N.Korea Point Man
The government has replaced its chief envoy to stalled six-party nuclear talks with North Korea, appointing the Ambassador to Australia Cho Tae-yong. A diplomatic source here on Wednesday said Cho will replace Lim Sung-nam, who was appointed by the Lee Myung-bak administration. "Cho has been appointed to reflect the new Park Geun-hye administration's desire to build trust with North Korea," the source added [Six Party Talks] [SK NK policy]
Start-up of North Korean Experimental Light Water Reactor Could Begin by Mid-2013 if Fuel is Available
By 38 North 01 May 2013 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jeffery Lewis and Nick Hansen Summary According to new commercial satellite imagery, North Korea is nearing completion of an experimental light water reactor (ELWR) that is primarily intended to generate electricity for civilian purposes. The North now appears to be putting the finishing external touches on the reactor and may be completing work inside the building as well. The key factor determining whether Pyongyang can then move on to the start-up period within the next few months—which precedes regular operation of the reactor—is the availability of reactor fuel. Pyongyang unveiled a uranium enrichment plant nearby in 2010 and experts believe that, if the facility has been operating over the past few years, it may have produced sufficient low-enriched uranium that can be used to power the ELWR for several years. This would mean start up activities could begin in the coming weeks. However, it remains unclear to what capacity the facility has been operating. Also unclear is whether the North has mastered the technology for producing the fuel assemblies necessary to power the reactor. [LWR] [Nuclear energy]
Looming Clash Between Seoul and Washington Over Nuclear Technology
By Audrey Yoo April 30, 20139 Comments When South Korean President Park Geun-hye visits Washington on May 5 she will be reaffirming the 60-year alliance between the U.S. and her country with cordiality. Relations between Washington and Seoul are better than ever thanks to a free-trade agreement, greater policy coordination and solidarity against North Korea’s provocations. But there is an unresolved question in their relationship: How much nuclear technology should South Korea possess? [US dominance] [Uranium]

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APRIL 2013

NK nuclear warhead attachment on missiles possible
By Lee Kyung-min North Korea is capable of attaching nuclear warheads to fit on its ballistic missiles, experts said. “It is highly likely that North Korean missile Rodong, which has target range of 400-1,300 km, might have nuclear device on it,” said Ham Hyung-pil, an active Lt. Colonel, with a nuclear engineering Ph.D. at MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) Thursday at a forum “With nuclear risk, for sustainable peace.” He is a researcher at the Center for Security and Strategy under the umbrella of Korea Institute for Defense Analysis (KIDA).
U.S. Expert Says N.Korea May Conduct More Nuclear Tests
North Korea could conduct its fourth nuclear test in weeks or months, said Dr. Siegfried Hecker from Stanford University, the last U.S. expert to visit the Yongbyon uranium enrichment facility, according to Radio Free Asia on Friday. He made the comments during a seminar at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation held in Austria on Thursday and also discussed the North’s technological capabilities. The North "would likely need several more tests to be able to make one small enough for a missile and have sufficient confidence that you can put a nuclear weapon on a warhead," he speculated. Hecker visited the previously secret uranium enrichment facility in Yongbyon at the invitation of North Korea in 2010. The North's "nuclear arms still are probably primitive" and its technology is not yet developed enough to mount nuclear weapons atop an intercontinental ballistic missile, he said. The most serious possible threat would be delivery of a nuclear bomb by boat. "That would be the simplest delivery mechanism. However, it is very difficult to pull that off," he added. [Test]
S. Korea-US talks on atomic energy stalled by disagreements
Posted on : Apr.20,2013 12:24 KSTModified on : Apr.20,2013 12:25 KST Existing agreement may now be extended by two years, instead of amended By Park Hyun, Washington correspondent South Korea and the US failed to reach an agreement on Apr. 18 to amend their Atomic Energy Agreement (AEA). Now the two countries are reportedly considering extending their current agreement by another two years. They began a sixth round of three-day negotiations in Washington on Apr. 16, with AEA chief negotiator Park No-byeok and US State Department special adviser Robert Einhorn serving as chief representatives. A South Korean government official said on Apr. 18 that Seoul was now "focusing on creating a substantive agreement." [US dominance]
North Korea loaded nuclear warhead on missile
The U.S. recovered the front section of the rocket used in North Korea’s satellite launch in December, which gave away the status of the regime's nuclear-arms program. When North Korean engineers launched a satellite into space December 12, it seemed like business as usual, with the familiar cycle of condemnations from the West and statements of defiance from the Hermit Kingdom. [Media] [Heading]
N.Korea Plays Games with Missiles
North Korea repeatedly concealed and uncovered Musudan missiles with a range of 3,000 to 4,000 km after moving them to Wonsan, Kangwon Province as if to attract the attention of South Korea and the U.S. The aim seems to confuse observers about any launch plans. "Now you see them, now you don't," a government official in Seoul said. He added several launch platforms for Scud and Rodong missiles in South Hamgyong Province were also exposed to satellites several times. They have a range of between 300 and 1,500 km. [Deception]
DPRK Nuclear Energy in the Context of a Proposed Peace Settlement
by Sharon Squassoni April 9, 2013 This memorandum explores the contours of nuclear energy in the DPRK as part of a comprehensive peace settlement. It assumes: a) DPRK must rejoin NPT as a non-nuclear weapon state and must ratify the Additional Protocol; b) DPRK is likely to press for the right to nuclear power in any settlement; c) limitations may not be equally applied across all non-nuclear-weapon states (vice Halperin paper); and d) there are no guarantees against proliferation, even in a unified Korea. [US NK policy] [NPT] [Nuclear energy]
N.Korea 'Could Launch a Missile This Week'
South Korea's presidential security advisor on Sunday warned North Korea could launch another missile this week. Kim Jang-soo drew the conclusion from a warning by Pyongyang to all foreign embassies to leave the country by Wednesday. "North Korea's missile provocation could come on April 10," a presidential spokeswoman quoted Kim as saying. But Kim added Seoul "is leaving all possibilities open and is well-prepared for any scenario." He added that there are no signs that the North is preparing for all-out war. If it did, "it will suffer many times more damage," he warned. He said North Korea's tactic seems to be to try and grab headlines in South Korea to pressure the U.S., China or Russia to dispatch a special envoy so they listen to Pyongyang's demands. [Negotiations]
Is North Korea bluffing, or preparing a missile launch?
Posted on : Apr.8,2013 15:58 KST Pyongyang has fixed Apr. 10 as day to watch, with many asking if its next provocation will take place then By Gil Yun-hyung and Cho Hye-jeong, staff reporters On Apr. 5, North Korea asked the foreign embassies in Pyongyang to submit their emergency evacuation plans. Following the revelation that the deadline for submission is Apr. 10, many are speculating as to why this date was chosen. The day before, Apr. 4, North Korea also asked the South Korean companies operating in the Kaesong Industrial Complex to inform the government of their plans for returning to Korea by Apr. 10. “It is possible that a missile launch by North Korea or some similar event could take place around that time [Apr. 10],” said Blue House national security chief Kim Jang-soo regarding this. “We are making thorough preparations, bearing in mind every possibility.”
Satellite Images Show New Construction at North Korea’s Plutonium Production Reactor; Rapid Restart?
By 38 North 03 April 2013 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Nick Hansen and Jeffrey Lewis. North Korea has begun new construction at a plutonium production reactor located at the Yongbyon nuclear complex that may be intended to restart the facility shut down under a 2007 agreement. A key step in that process will be to restore the disabled secondary cooling system. Fans blow carbon dioxide on the reactor core to cool the 5 megawatt electric (MWe) reactor. The secondary cooling loop provides water to remove heat from the gas. Under the 2007 Six Party agreement to disable facilities at Yongbyon, North Korea agreed to cut and remove portions of steel piping of the secondary cooling loop outside the reactor building and to remove the internal wood structure of the cooling tower. North Korea subsequently agreed to demolish the cooling tower in 2008 to provide the Bush administration with a “striking visual” that would symbolize the disablement process. [Yongbyon]
North Korean nuclear reactor could be functioning in 4-6 months time
Posted on : Apr.4,2013 14:33 KSTModified on : Apr.4,2013 14:34 KST Olli Heinonen, former Deputy Director-General for Safeguards of the UN International Atomic Energy Agency Yongbyon reactor could allow North Korea to extract 6kg of plutonium by the end of next year By Kim Kyu-won, staff reporter It is expected that it will take North Korea four to six months to reactivate the Yongbyon nuclear reactor. This is much shorter than the one year that the South Korean government and experts had previously predicted, and it means that the North could be able to bring the reactor back online by the second half of 2013. [Yongbyon]
North Korea says it will restart nuclear reactor
Posted on : Apr.3,2013 15:36 KSTModified on : Apr.3,2013 15:45 KST The cooling tower at the Yongbyon was blown up on June 27, 2008, intended to be a gesture showing North Korea’s intention to denuclearize. Latest move by North Korea apparently intended to reiterate its refusal to give up its nuclear program By Park Byong-su, staff reporter On Apr. 2, North Korea announced that that it would repair and reactivate the 5mW graphite-moderated nuclear reactor that it had shut down in 2007 according to an agreement made during the six-party talks. As this constitutes a declaration that the North will resume its production of bomb-grade plutonium, concern is growing about how this will influence the state of affairs on the Korean peninsula. “We have decided to alter the use of our current nuclear facilities in a manner suitable our two-track approach,” said a spokesperson for North Korea’s General Bureau of Atomic Energy. “This includes refurbishing and reactivating the 5mW graphite-moderated nuclear reactor that was mothballed and disarmed in Oct. 2007 according to an agreement made during the six-party talks, along with the uranium enrichment factory and all other nuclear facilities at Yongbyon.” The spokesperson was quoted in an Apr. 2 report by the Korea Central News Agency (KNCA). In 2007, North Korea mothballed the nuclear facility at Yongbyon and discontinued production of bomb-grade plutonium in accordance with the Feb. 13 Agreement and the Oct. 4 Joint Declaration, both of which came from the six-party talks. Reactivation of the Yongbyon facility represents a complete repudiation of the results of the six-party talks. [Yongbyon]
DPRK to Adjust Uses of Existing Nuclear Facilities
Pyongyang, April 2 (KCNA) -- A spokesman for the General Department of Atomic Energy of the DPRK gave the following answer to a question raised by KCNA as regards the new strategic line laid down at the March, 2013 plenary meeting of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea on simultaneously pushing forward economic construction and the building of nuclear armed force to cope with the prevailing situation so as to meet the law-governing requirements of the development of the Korean revolution: The field of atomic energy is faced with heavy tasks for making a positive contribution to solving the acute shortage of electricity by developing the self-reliant nuclear power industry and for bolstering up the nuclear armed force both in quality and quantity till the world is denuclearized, pursuant to the strategic line on simultaneously pushing forward economic construction and the building of the nuclear armed force. The General Department of Atomic Energy of the DRPK decided to adjust and alter the uses of the existing nuclear facilities, to begin with, in accordance with the line. This will include the measure for readjusting and restarting all the nuclear facilities in Nyongbyon including uranium enrichment plant and 5MW graphite moderated reactor which had been mothballed and disabled under an agreement reached at the six-party talks in October, 2007. This work will be put into practice without delay. [Yongbyon]
N.Korea Pushes for Nuclear Development
The North Korean Workers Party on Sunday signed off on a "parallel strategy" of economic and nuclear development, the country's official KCNA news agency reported. The declaration came a day after the North declared it was in a "state of war" with South Korea, warning Seoul and Washington that any provocation would escalate quickly into an all-out nuclear conflict. North Korea revised its constitution in April last year to set itself up explicitly as a nuclear-armed state. [NWS]
North Korea vows to restart facilities at main nuclear complex mothballed in disarmament deal
KCNA via KNS/Associated Press - In this Sunday, March 31, 2013 photo released by the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) and distributed in Tokyo Monday, April 1, 2013 by the Korea News Service, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un gives a speech during a plenary meeting of the central committee of the ruling Workers’ Party in Pyongyang, North Korea. After weeks of war-like rhetoric, North Korean leader Kim gathered legislators Monday for an annual spring parliamentary session taking place one day after top party officials adopted a statement declaring building nuclear weapons and the economy the nation’s top priorities. By Associated Press, Updated: Tuesday, April 2, 7:50 PM SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea vowed Tuesday to restart a nuclear reactor that can make one bomb’s worth of plutonium a year, escalating tensions already raised by near daily warlike threats against the United States and South Korea. The North’s plutonium reactor was shut down in 2007 as part of international nuclear disarmament talks that have since stalled. The declaration of a resumption of plutonium production — the most common fuel in nuclear weapons — and other facilities at the main Nyongbyon nuclear complex will boost fears in Washington and among its allies about North Korea’s timetable for building a nuclear-tipped missile that can reach the United States, technology it is not currently believed to have. A spokesman for the North’s General Department of Atomic Energy said that scientists will begin work at a uranium enrichment plant and a graphite-moderated 5 megawatt reactor, which generates spent fuel rods laced with plutonium and is the core of the Nyongbyon nuclear complex. [Yongbyon]
North Korean secrecy on bomb test fuels speculation on nuclear advances
JACKY CHEN/REUTERS - A soldier stands guard near a barbed wire fence on Hwanggumpyong Island located in the middle of the Yalu River, near the North Korean town of Sinuiju and the Chinese border city of Dandong on March 29. By Joby Warrick, Monday, April 1, 1:12 PM U.S. officials and independent experts say North Korea appears to have taken unusual steps to conceal details about the nuclear weapon it tested in February, fuelingsuspicions that its scientists shifted to a bomb design that uses highly enriched uranium as the core. At least two separate analyses of the Feb. 12 detonation confirmed that the effects of the blast were remarkably well contained, with few radioactive traces escaping into the atmosphere — where they could be detected — according to U.S. officials and weapons experts who have studied the data. U.S. officials anticipated the test and monitored it closely for clues about the composition of the bomb, which was the third detonated by North Korea since 2006. The first two devices were thought to have used plutonium extracted from a dwindling stockpile of the fissile material that North Korea developed in the late 1990s. A successful test of a uranium-based bomb would confirm that Pyongyang has achieved a second pathway to nuclear weapons, using its plentiful supply of natural uranium and new enrichment technology. A device based on highly enriched uranium, HEU, also would deepen concerns about cooperation between the hermetic regime and Iran. [HEU] [Intelligence]

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MARCH 2013

Korea Struggles to Win Nuclear Rights from U.S.
The U.S. seems determined that South Korea should permanently relinquish its rights to enrich uranium and reprocess the mass of spent fuel rods from its nuclear power plants. Washington insists on what it considers the "gold standard" of a permanent ban on uranium enrichment and plutonium extraction by governments negotiating new nuclear deals with the U.S. [US dominance]
Seoul Seeks Right to Enrich Uranium for Power Production
The government plans to resume negotiations to revise a 1974 atomic energy pact with the U.S. this month and focus on securing the right to enrich uranium for nuclear power generation. A senior diplomat on Tuesday said, "We will try our best to persuade the U.S. to let us produce low-enriched uranium." But the more pressing question of reprocessing spent nuclear fuel will depend on the result of a joint study of a technology known as pyroprocessing that does not produce weapons-grade plutonium. This source said the Obama administration takes a firm line against non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, which means that there has been very little progress in negotiations to revise the bilateral atomic energy pact for the past two years. "It will take several years until the results of the joint study on pyroprocessing come out, so it's better to work on securing the right to produce LEU in the meantime," the diplomat added. Despite being the world's fifth largest nuclear power producer, Korea cannot enrich uranium by itself and spends W900 billion (US$1=W1,096) every year buying uranium yellowcake and commissioning other countries to enrich uranium for its nuclear reactors. The government hopes to make progress in the talks with the U.S. before the Korea-U.S. summit in Washington in May. [LEU] [US dominance]
Some suggest S. Korea should go nuclear
Oren Dorell, USA TODAY6:04p.m. EDT March 11, 2013 South Koreans increasingly think going nuclear is a reasonable response to threats and actions by the North. About 70% of South Koreans say the government should develop a nuclear bomb The U.S. guarantees to defend South Korea if attacked North Korea may soon be able to strike the U.S. homeland Increasing tensions on the Korean Peninsula over North Korea's nuclear ambitions and provocations are pushing more South Koreans to raise the once unthinkable: developing their own nuclear deterrent, analysts said Monday. South Korean lawmaker Chung Mong Joon of the governing Saenuri, or New Frontier Party, indicated that the South may have to look into a nuclear deterrent given that North Korea is acting like "a gangster." The South Korean newspaper Joong Ang Ilbo suggested in an editorial that the U.S. "nuclear umbrella" may not be enough. Although the South is a signatory to the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons treaty, which means the country cannot legally develop nuclear weapons, the newspaper says the North's threats mean new defenses must be considered. "Nuclear weapons can be stopped only with nuclear weapons, as in the mutual assured destruction that prevented a nuclear conflict during the Cold War," it said. Bruce Klingner, former deputy chief for Korea in the CIA's Directorate of Intelligence under President Bill Clinton, says a nuclear South is a "non-starter." [Nuclearisation]
Facilities: No Imminent Launches, But…
12 March 2013 A 38 North exclusive, with analysis by Nick Hansen Summary Despite rising tensions in the aftermath of new United Nations Security Council sanctions imposed on North Korea and Pyongyang’s pronouncements at the end of 2012 that it would conduct additional rocket tests, new commercial satellite imagery collected from January 2013 through early March show no signs of preparations for launches in the next month at either of the North’s two rocket test facilities. There have been recent signs of increased activity at the Tonghae Satellite Launching Ground. However, whether that activity is consistent with preparations for a later test, perhaps in May, is unclear since evidence at this point, which would be very early in a launch campaign, remains too ambiguous to reach that conclusion.
National Peace Committee of Korea's Memorandum Discloses U.S. History of Nuclear Threats to DPRK
Pyongyang, March 8 (KCNA) -- The National Peace Committee of Korea released a memorandum Friday explaining how the nuclear issue spawned on the Korean Peninsula, who is the arch criminal of the nuclear threat and why the DPRK became to access the nuclear deterrence. According to the memorandum, the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula is attributable to the nuclear threat directly posed to the DPRK by the U.S. which resorted to the war of aggression and hostile policy toward the DPRK. The document goes on: The U.S. imperialists, which provoked the war for aggression of Korea in June 1950, shipped nuclear weapons to south Korea in August that year and at the end of the year openly disclosed its plan to drop 30-50 A-bombs in Korea-China border areas. [Nuclear weapons]
Experts Puzzle Over N.Korean 'Precision Strike' Threat
North Korea on Wednesday planted a bomb among some defense pundits by threatening to use "precision nuclear strikes" that can turn Seoul and Washington into a "sea of fire." While most experts dismissed the threat as the usual North Korean grandstanding, a handful are taking it more seriously, speculating that perhaps North Korea’s weapons technology is vastly more advanced than the evidence suggests.
China urges resumption of six-party talks
Xinhua, March 6, 2013 China on Tuesday called for the resumption of the six-party talks, regarding the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula in the board of governor meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency(IAEA) in Vienna. The Chinese delegation to IAEA stressed that the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK)'s nuclear issue could not be fundamentally resolved only by sanctions and pressure. All sides concerned should take steps to ease the tensions in the region, promoting dialogue to build trust, regarding the aftermath of the DPRK's nuclear test. China has declared that China resolutely opposes the latest nuclear test conducted by the DPRK and insists that the six-party talks should be resumed to resolve the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. [Six Party Talks]
N.Korea Expands Missile Launch Site
North Korea is drastically expanding a missile launch site in Musudan-ri, North Hamgyong Province, and has changed the shape of warheads to improve missile accuracy. "The North is building a new launch site designed for massive rockets in Musudan-ri," a South Korean missile expert said. "They're expanding the assembly facility there by 28 m so that they can assemble two long-range missiles simultaneously." South Korean authorities believe that the new launch facility is bigger than the missile test site in Tongchang-ri, North Pyongan Province from which the North's space rocket was launched last year. They base their conclusions on a flame-passage device and a huge fuel tank there. The expert said the accuracy of the North's missiles is likely to improve through the use of triconic instead of simple conic warheads, a change of shape which does not reduce the weight. Triconic warheads were first used for the improved version of the Rodong missile in 2000 and are now also being used for medium and long-range missiles, he said.
US nuclear forces, 2013
Hans M. Kristensen Robert S. Norris As of early 2013, the United States has continued to reduce its nuclear stockpile, and retirement alone has accounted for a dip of over 250 warheads since last year. Of the total stockpile of approximately 4,650 warheads, an estimated 2,150 warheads are deployed. The arsenal is composed of roughly 1,950 strategic warheads deployed with approximately 800 missiles and bombers, as well as nearly 200 nonstrategic warheads deployed in Europe. In this article, the authors scrutinize the US nuclear arsenal. [Nuclear weapons]
Markus Schiller’s Analysis of North Korea’s Unha-3 Launcher
David Wright, co-director and senior scientist February 22, 2013 Bookmark and Share North Korea’s launches of its Unha-3 rocket in April and December 2012, along with the recovery and analysis of debris from the December launch, have provided a lot of new information that was not previously available. That information has allowed me and others to reassess our earlier conclusions about Pyongyang’s rocket, and has led to some significant changes. Some of the most detailed analysis based on this new information has been done by Markus Schiller and Robert Schmucker, two aerospace engineers working in Munich. They bring real-word, hands-on experience with rockets to this work. (For a report on North Korea’s missiles Markus published last year as a fellow at RAND, click here.) Last week Markus gave a webinar and talked about his current understanding of the Unha-3. His webinar is available at the link below. Here is a summary of some of his main points:
Based on their analysis Markus notes that in designing the Unha, North Korea made choices that are useful for a satellite launcher but decrease its ability as a ballistic missile. So while developing and testing the Unha gives North Korea experience with technology that can be used for a ballistic missile, reports that the launch was really a ballistic missile test parading as a satellite launch are not true. [Satellite]
DPRK's Nuclear Test Was Decisive Measure against U.S. Hostility: DPRK Delegate
Pyongyang, March 3 (KCNA) -- We clarify once again that the DPRK's third nuclear test was part of the practical countermeasure for defending its sovereignty and security to cope with the ruthless hostile act of the U.S. that wantonly infringed on its legitimate right to satellite launch for peaceful purposes. The DPRK delegate said this when addressing the plenary meeting of the Geneva Disarmament Conference on February 27. He went on to say: The DPRK originally had no plan for carrying out the third nuclear test and did not feel even its necessity. The U.S. barred in every way the DPRK from concentrating its efforts on economic construction and improving the standards of the people's living in a peaceful and stabled environment. Such intention of the U.S. was vividly expressed when the DPRK successfully launched satellite Kwangmyongsong 3-2 in December last year. The satellite launch is the exercise of the legitimate right of a sovereign state recognized by international law. But the U.S. took issue with only the satellite launch of the DPRK abusing the UNSC again. [Satellite] [Test] [UNUS]
DPRK's Satellite Officially Registered at UN
Pyongyang, February 27 (KCNA) -- The DPRK presented its paper for the registration of its satellite Kwangmyongsong 3-2 at the UN as a signatory to the "Convention on Registration of Objects Launched into Outer Space" after its successful launch on December 12, Juche 101 (2012). Recently the UN Space Office worked out UN official document (ST/SG/SER. E/662) as regards the registration of the DPRK's satellite and posted it on the satellite registry of its website and the UN electronic archives website respectively. This brought to an end the work for registering the DPRK's satellite launched after going through a legitimate procedure according to international law concerned. [Satellite]

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FEBRUARY 2013

North Korea craving nuclear power status
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un inspects an assault rifle during a Korean People’s Army live-fire artillery drill at an undisclosed location in this photo released Tuesday by the North’s Korean Central News Agency. / Yonhap Kim Jong-un oversees live-fire exercises by artillery units By Kang Seung-woo North Korea is engaged in a frenzied propaganda campaign to confer on itself the status of a nuclear-weapons state, stepping up media coverage of its latest nuclear test towards this end. Pyongyang conducted a third test on Feb. 12 ? following tests in 2006 and 2009 ? and since then, the regime has produced and run around 10 reports on the move daily, reaching a peak of 13 on Monday. [Test]
Time to Break the North Korean Cycle
By Paul Carroll February 12, 2013 It will be days or weeks before the world knows much about the nuclear test conducted by North Korea mid-day Tuesday local time in Pyongyang. What was its actual yield? What did it use – plutonium or highly enriched uranium, or some combination? Did it perform as expected? What will the international response be? Is this a game changer? These are all valid questions and important things to determine. But when the flurry of post-test chatter and analysis subsides, we must address a fundamental theme if we are to avoid facing another news cycle dominated by the DPRK’s provocations in the future. That theme is the lack of a long-term strategic diplomatic approach to North Korea that necessarily involves forging common ground with China. [Test]
What Nuclear Weapons Cost Us
Ploughshares Fund Working Paper | September, 2012 Ploughshares Fund projects that current plans for nuclear weapons and related programs could cost the American taxpayer approximately $640 billion over the next decade. [Nuclear weapons]
S.Koreans Must Keep Discussing Nuclear Armament
Chung Kweon-hyun Eisaku Sato, the prime minister of Japan from 1964 to 1972, won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1974 for his contributions to non-proliferation of nuclear weapons by announcing the three principles that prohibit his country from possessing, manufacturing or importing nuclear weapons. But NHK revealed in 2010 that Sato sought the help of West Germany in 1969, a year after he announced the principles, to help Japan obtain nuclear weapons. One former Japanese Foreign Ministry official who attended the meetings back then told NHK that Tokyo wished to "leave room" to allow Japan to have nuclear arms and "overturn" the conditions that had been placed on the country by others. After the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty went into effect in 1970, Japan began to build nuclear power plants on condition of peaceful use and soon became the world’s No. 3 in nuclear energy production after the U.S. and France. But Tokyo's nuclear policy, which was spearheaded by proponents of military re-armament including former prime minister Yasuhiro Nakasone, always kept in mind the possibility of nuclear armament. [Nuclearisation] [Japanese remilitarisation]
Testing times for North Korea
February 19th, 2013 Author: Tessa Morris-Suzuki, ANU North Korea’s latest nuclear test has, both literally and figuratively, sent seismic shockwaves around Northeast Asia. The negative repercussions of the test will be most directly felt by the long-suffering people of North Korea itself, who desperately need the better living conditions that can only be achieved through increased international cooperation. But indirectly, the test has far-reaching implications for the region as a whole. [Test]
North Korea’s nuclear test
February 23rd, 2013 Author: Ron Huisken, ANU Pyongyang’s third nuclear test, conducted on 13 February 2013, sparked a flurry of commentary on what to do next. All the familiar and varied themes of response have been refreshed — toughen the sanctions and accelerate countermeasures (especially against ballistic missiles), engage North Korea unreservedly, win its confidence and persuade it to seek security through economic development, or engage it from a realist standpoint as the prospective (but inevitable) manager of an operational missile-based nuclear arsenal. The strongest and most compelling expression of the last theme has come from Muthiah Alagappa. Alagappa argues that all concerned, but especially the United States, China, Japan and South Korea, have to this point failed to address ‘the real concern of national security that has driven the North Korean nuclear weapon program’. Alagappa goes on to make a number of not-unreasonable judgements about the possible costs of accepting the DPRK’s nuclear accomplishments and how these costs would or could be bounded. [Test] [US NK policy]
Search Is On for Clues to N.Korean Nuke Test
South Korea, the U.S. and Japan are desperately trying to get hold of earth samples from near North Korea's nuclear test site since other efforts to assess its recent nuclear test have fallen flat. Agents from the three countries are apparently hustling on the North Korea-China border to get their hands on a piece of clod from Punggye-ri, North Hamgyong Province, where the regime conducted a third nuclear test two weeks ago. On Friday, Chinese security forces were still maintaining tight control in the border cities of Yanji and Tumen 10 days after the nuclear test. "Rumors are rife that South Korean, U.S., and Japanese intelligence agencies have recruited North Korean defectors or ethnic Koreans in China to get earth samples from Punggye-ri," a North Korean source in Yanji said. The source added security in the border region has been doubled since the nuclear test, with plainclothesmen deployed at bus terminals. [Test] [Intelligence]
11,000 N.Koreans Given Medals Over Nuclear Test
Pyongyang has awarded more than 11,000 North Koreans for contributing to the country's latest nuclear test. The North's state-run Korean Central News Agency reported Friday that scientists, technicians, soldiers and officials were recognized after the third nuclear test that took place earlier this month. The report said some 100 of them were honored with gold star medals, though their names were not released. [test]
North Korea Ups Ante (II)
Andrei AKULOV | 22.02.2013 | 00:00 Part I North Korean military potential North Korea’s armed forces are composed of nearly 1.1m active-duty personnel and some 4.7m reserves, making it the world’s fifth largest active military force (the population of the country is 22.5 million as the data for 2004 says). Army’s (ground forces) strength is 718 thousand. The KPA's annual budget is approximately six billion US dollars.
The North Korean nuclear test gives the United States, South Korea and Japan and other countries an argument to justify joining the regional arms race and US ballistic missile defense efforts. Japan and Australia emphasize missile defense, while South Korea focuses on expanding the range and payload of its attack missiles. The event is strengthening the position of hardliners in South Korea and Japan. The unfolding of the situation dictates a need for urgent, closely coordinated international effort. North Korea is not the only country whose leadership has come to conclusion that going nuclear is the only way to survive as a sovereign state in the contemporary world where one country after another become victims of unprovoked armed interventions from outside, for instance: Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya… [Deterrent] [Missile Defense] [Arms sales]
2/3 of S.Koreans Support Nuclear Armament
Two-thirds of South Koreans believe South Korea should develop its own nuclear weapons in response to the North Korean nuclear threat. In a poll of 1,006 adults nationwide released by Gallup Korea on Wednesday, 64 percent of respondents supported nuclear weapons for South Korea, compared to 28 percent who opposed it. Seventy-six percent said the North's nuclear tests are threatening peace on the Korean Peninsula, as against 21 percent who said it is not. Asked about North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, 62 percent consider him bellicose while 10 percent regard him as peaceful. Twenty-seven percent were unsure or gave no answer. In a similar nationwide poll of 1,000 adults published Wednesday by Research & Research for the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, 66.5 percent of respondents supported South Korea's development of nuclear weapons, while 31.1 percent opposed it. Nuclear armament found a majority in all age groups except among those in their 20s. But 59.1 percent are against pre-emptive strikes on the North's nuclear test sites because of the danger of war. Some 36.3 percent argued in favor of such strikes, because they are necessary despite the risk of escalation. These two polls were conducted on Feb. 13-15. [Nuclearisation]
U.S. Envoy Opposes S.Korean Nuclear Armament
U.S. Ambassador in Seoul Sung Kim on Wednesday argued against South Korea's nuclear armament and the re-deployment of tactical nuclear weapons with the U.S. Forces Korea. They would be "a big mistake" for South Korea, he said. Kim was speaking at a seminar hosted by the Korea Employer's Federation. He warned against any measures that work against common efforts for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula but also stressed the importance of a powerful combined deterrent. Kim also discussed the scheduled transfer of full operational control of South Korean troops to Seoul in late 2015. He said the handover will go ahead only if the governments of the two countries at the time are certain that the South Korean military is fully prepared. U.S. Envoy Opposes S.Korean Nuclear Armament Sung Kim Sung Kim U.S. Ambassador in Seoul Sung Kim on Wednesday argued against South Korea's nuclear armament and the re-deployment of tactical nuclear weapons with the U.S. Forces Korea. They would be "a big mistake" for South Korea, he said. Kim was speaking at a seminar hosted by the Korea Employer's Federation. He warned against any measures that work against common efforts for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula but also stressed the importance of a powerful combined deterrent. Kim also discussed the scheduled transfer of full operational control of South Korean troops to Seoul in late 2015. He said the handover will go ahead only if the governments of the two countries at the time are certain that the South Korean military is fully prepared. [Nuclearisation] [OPCON]
Contributors to Underground Nuclear Test Will Visit Pyongyang
Pyongyang, February 20 (KCNA) -- Scientists, technicians, workers, soldier-builders and officials who fully demonstrated the tremendous might of the great Paektusan nation by successfully conducting the third underground nuclear test will come to Pyongyang under the care of the Workers' Party of Korea. The recent successful underground nuclear test was a special event produced by the iron faith and will and the matchless grit and pluck of the dear respected Marshal Kim Jong Un, illustrious commander of Mt. Paektu. It was also a historic result of the devoted efforts by the scientists, technicians, workers, soldier-builders and officials who have devotedly defended the party, revolution, country and its people on the forefront for an all-out action against the U.S. They will spend significant days of Pyongyang visit, enjoying the greatest privileges and preferential treatment. They will visit the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun where leader Kim Jong Il lies in state. They will also visit President Kim Il Sung's birthplace at Mangyongdae and other places in Pyongyang. They will spend joyful and delightful time at the People's Open-air Ice Rink, Skate Park and other places. [Test]
Honors for Naro scientists
President Lee Myung-bak, left, confers a medal to Naro Space Center head Min Kyung-ju at Cheong Wa Dae, Wednesday, for his contribution to the successful launch of the Naro rocket. Around 150 were honored for their work on the project. On Feb. 3, the Naro took off from the spaceport in Goheung, about 480 kilometers south of Seoul, and put a satellite into orbit after two failed attempts in previous years.
A Nuclear North Korea: Nonproliferation Issues and Beyond
More then three decades of attempts by the United States and the entire international community to prevent North Korea from developing its military nuclear program offer a number of conclusions. Strong-arm tactics and sanctions alone have failed to bring positive results. Successful satellite launch (December 12, 2012) and the third nuclear test (February 12, 2013) clearly demonstrated that the recent the USA conception of “strategic patience» that some American experts call as a “containment policy” variant also failed to reach its goals. Contrarily a policy of engagement and strategic compromise, on the other hand, has proven quite successful. Talks placing the parties on an equal footing and taking into account their legitimate mutual concerns have succeeded in delaying or freezing the situation at different points in the development of North Korea’s nuclear program, and in some cases have even resulted in a cessation of nuclear activities. But today, Washington appears to have no plans to back down from its line of isolating and weakening North Korea, even at the cost of resolving the nuclear issue. [US NK policy] [Engagement]
N.Korea's Nuke Test 'Funded by Iran'
A neoconservative U.S. website claims to have put two and two together and discovered that North Korea's latest nuclear test was planned and funded by Iran. WorldTribune.com said, "It was, in essence, a test of an Iranian nuclear weapon, and involved scientific as well as financial involvement by the Iranian government." "The North Korean tests -- particularly the February 12, 2013, test -- were to prove Iranian weapon design efficacy," the website added. The article was headed, "Connecting the dots: N. Korea's nuke was bought and paid for by a key end-user -- Iran." The "dots" it proposed to connect based on unnamed "intelligence sources" include that there were "significant numbers of Iranians present at the test site"; and that there was "a large satcom terminal" near the entrance to the test site, which was "unusual.” The U.K.'s Sunday Times earlier reported, "Iran's leading nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh-Mahabadi, is believed to have travelled to North Korea to observe its third nuclear test." The paper, which is owned by Fox News proprietor Rupert Murdoch, a lively advocate of U.S. military action against Iran, also cited unnamed "western intelligence sources." [test] [Iran]
Gary Saymore says South Korea doesn’t need nuclear weapons
Posted on : Feb.20,2013 16:08 KST Modified on : Feb.20,2013 16:14 KST According to former advisor to Obama, Seoul would damage its international image by developing nukes By Park Byong-su, staff reporter A former White House arms control coordinator said on Feb. 19 that he did not think it would be appropriate for South Korea to acquire nuclear weapons, as some have been calling for in the wake of North Korea’s recent nuclear test. Gary Saymore, who served as National Security Council coordinator for weapons of mass destruction during the first term of the Barack Obama administration, made the comments while speaking to reporters at the Asan Nuclear Forum, an event held in Seoul by the Asan Institute for Policy Studies. Noting that South Korea currently receives military protection under the US nuclear umbrella, Saymore told the reporters that if South Korea developed nuclear weapons, it would it would create a poor image with the international community. He also dismissed arguments in favor of returning US tactical nuclear weapons to the peninsula, saying the presence of US deterrents such as submarines and missiles make it unnecessary in military terms [Nuclearisation]
'US nuke umbrella not enough'
Rep. Chung Mong-joon Robert Galluci Rep. Chung Mong-joon dismisses Galluci's assurances By Chung Min-uck Rep. Chung Mong-joon, a senior ruling Saenuri Party lawmaker, said Tuesday the U.S. nuclear umbrella falls short of reliable protection, calling for South Korea to acquire nuclear weapons. Chung’s call triggered criticism by two U.S. nuclear experts — Robert Galluci, President William Clinton’s special envoy on the North’s nuclear program and Gary Samore, President Barack Obama’s arms control coordinator. “Some say that the U.S. nuclear umbrella is a torn umbrella. If so, we need to repair it,” said Rep. Chung in an opening speech during the Nuclear Forum 2013 hosted by the Asan Institute for Policy Studies. He reminded the audience of his call for nuclear armament during a National Assembly speech two years ago. “Then, I proposed the re-introduction of tactical nuclear weapons because the threat of a counter-nuclear force is the only thing that will discourage North Korea from developing its nuclear arsenal.” [Nuclearisation]
Post-Test Analysis of Punggye-Ri: What a Difference a Few Days Make
A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu and Nick Hansen. Commercial satellite imagery of the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Facility taken at intervals of one and three days after North Korea’s third nuclear detonation provides an interesting glimpse of the post-test activity. Press reports indicated that the test site had been evacuated on February 8. While there was no visible vehicular or human movement in the area one day after the blast, perhaps to ensure that the levels of radioactivity at the site were safe, the area was active by February 15. (Some of the differences between the two images may also be the result of melting snow that had fallen on February 13.) [Test] [Intelligence]
North Korea Ups Ante (I)
Andrei AKULOV | 19.02.2013 | 00:00 On February 12 North Korea conducted a successful underground test at the Punggye-ri nuclear site (the north-western part of the country). It was a third test after two failures conducted in strict defiance of UN resolutions. The event is linked to launching a long-range rocket in December 2012. Back then it triggered U.N. sanctions, backed by Russia and China. North Korea described the test as a «preliminary measure» and threatened «stronger» actions unless the US ends its «hostility». The move brings it closer to developing a nuclear warhead small enough to be mounted on a long-range missile and possibly bringing Guam, the Hawaii and even the US West Coast within the striking range… It comes at a time of political transition in China, South Korea and Japan and right at the time US President Obama begins his second term. The action was timed with his State of the Union address. [Test]
Military action may trump sanctions with North Korea
Letter to the Editor Tuesday, February 19, 11:38 AM In their Feb. 13 op-ed, “Hit Pyongyang in the wallet,” Sung-Yoon Lee and Joshua Stanton grossly overestimated the effectiveness of sanctions against a country aspiring to nuclear capability. A brief review of the history of nuclear sanctions demonstrates their ineffectiveness at halting such programs. Despite sanctions, India and Pakistan successfully developed and tested nuclear weapons in the late 1990s. Such sanctions have proved effective only when a strong, established military dependence exists with the targeted country, as in the cases of Taiwan and South Korea, where sanctions were applied to halt nuclear weapons programs. If the world community truly wants peace and stability on the Korean peninsula in our time, policymakers must think creatively beyond sanctions and should not be too quick to rule out military action, especially while the North Korean nuclear program is still in its infancy. After all, military action by Israel proved effective in halting the Syrian nuclear program in 2007. Gregory Barnekoff, Alexandria [Military option] [Sanctions]
Why North Korea Needs Nuclear Weapons
Posted in north Korea, Nuclear proliferation by what's left on February 16, 2013 By Stephen Gowans Is North Korea’s recent nuclear test, its third, to be welcomed, lamented or condemned? It depends on your perspective. If you believe that a people should be able to organize their affairs free from foreign domination and interference; that the United States and its client government in Seoul have denied Koreans in the south that right and seek to deny Koreans in the north the same right; and that the best chance that Koreans in the north have for preserving their sovereignty is to build nuclear weapons to deter a US military conquest, then the test is to be welcomed. [Deterrence] [Nuclear weapons]
N.Korea Tests New Missile Engine Before Nuke Test
North Korea conducted combustion testing for the engine of a mobile long-range missile presumed only a day before its third nuclear test last week, it has emerged. The missile is presumed to be the KN-08, an intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of 5,000 to 6,000 km. It was unveiled in a military parade on nation founder Kim Il-sung's 100th birthday on April 15 last year, but was then largely believed to have been a fake. The engine test suggests it was a little more than that. A South Korean government official said the North carried out combustion testing at a missile launch site in Tongchang-ri, North Pyongan Province on Feb. 11. [Missile] [Response]
North Korea observed testing improvements to ballistic missiles
Posted on : Feb.18,2013 15:04 KST At the centenary parade for North Korea founder Kim Il-sung in Pyongyang on April 15, 2012, North Korea displayed the KN-08, a new long-range missile. YTN quoted experts as saying the missile has a range of 3,000km. If additional UN sanctions are implemented, North Korea could test this missile. So far, only engine testing has been completed. (KCNA) Pyongyang apparently conducting efforts to develop lighter weapons with a greater range By Kang Tae-ho, senior staff writer North Korea tested improvements to a KN-08 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) engine with a 10,000-km firing range on Feb. 11, the day before its nuclear test, government sources said on Feb. 17. The test was apparently conducted at the rocket launch site in Dongchang Village, North Pyongan province, with the aim of extending the firing range of the KN-08, which has never been test-launched, a source explained. “It looks like they may begin putting it into combat position once they’ve determined if the engine improvements were successful,” the source said. [Missile]
'Nuke accord with US needs focus on commercial use'
By Chung Min-uck Growing calls from conservative politicians here to go nuclear is bound to hurt national interest as it will unnecessarily impede the ongoing talks between South Korea and the United States to revise their bilateral Atomic Energy Agreement, experts say. Signed in 1973, the bilateral nuclear energy accord is set to expire in 2014 and the two nations have been in talks to amend it since 2010. “Seoul will want to pursue uranium enrichment more eagerly on the negotiation table following Pyongyang’s latest nuclear test,” said Daniel Pinkston, an analyst with the International Crisis Group, a non-governmental security think-tank, Sunday. “However, there is no commercially valid reason to seek that capability and I don’t see any benefit for South Korea trying to include that in the agreement. [Uranium] [US dominance]
Explain This: Subcritical experiments
By Frank von Hippel | 14 December 2012 Earlier this month, the US National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) announced that it had conducted a subcritical experiment with plutonium in an underground tunnel 300 meters below the Nevada National Security Site (formerly, the Nevada Test Site), about 65 miles northwest of Las Vegas. Named Pollux, it was the 27th such experiment that the United States has conducted since it ended test nuclear explosions in 1992. It is believed that, among the other nuclear weapon states, at least Russia and China also conduct such research under their former nuclear test sites. [Test]
Iran 'no intention to build nuclear weapons'
Xinhua, February 17, 2013 Adjust font size: Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reiterated Saturday that the Islamic republic is not after building nuclear weapons. Khamenei was quoted by local Press TV as saying Iran has "no intention to build nuclear weapons." "We believe that nuclear weapons (in the world) must be obliterated, and we do not intend to make nuclear weapons. But if.. . we had decided to possess nuclear weapons, no power could have prevented us," he said. The remarks is significant against the backdrop of a new round of nuclear talks between the Islamic republic and the so-called P5+ 1 group (Britain, China, France, Russia, the United States and Germany) that will start on Feb. 26 in Kazakhstan. In February 2012, Khamenei said his country considers seeking and acquiring nuclear arms as a "sin." [Iran]
Rising Voices in S. Korea, Japan Advocate Nuclear Weapons
Steve Herman February 15, 2013 SEOUL — North Korea's claim this week to have successfully conducted a third underground nuclear test is prompting some in South Korea and Japan to advocate possessing their own such weapons. Chung Mong-joon, chairman of the ruling Grand National Party, June 2, 2010 file photo.Chung Mong-joon, chairman of the ruling Grand National Party, June 2, 2010 file photo. ??South Korean lawmaker Chung Mong-joon of the governing Saenuri (New Frontier) party made such a remark during a meeting of his colleagues from the National Assembly, comparing the situation with North Korea to “a gangster in the neighborhood buying a brand-new machine gun” and trying to defend oneself with merely a pebble. Chung is no fringe politician. He is the country's wealthiest lawmaker through his controlling shares in the Hyundai Heavy Industries group. The JoongAng Ilbo, major South Korean newspaper, terming North Korea's latest test an existential threat to Seoul, questions whether the country should arm itself with nuclear weapons and if the United States will ultimately protect it if Pyongyang were to threaten a nuclear attack. [Nuclearisation] [Japanese remilitarisation] [US global strategy]
Avoid a nuclear arms race between South Korea and Japan
Posted on : Feb.16,2013 13:52 KST Recent calls for nuclear armament in Seoul and Tokyo would make the region less safe and less peaceful By Jeong Nam-ku, Tokyo correspondent A Japan with an army and nuclear weapons. This has long been the dream of the country's conservatives - and now they have a good opportunity to make it come true, with a cash-strapped Washington asking Tokyo to play a more active role in Northeast Asian security. Prime minister Shinzo Abe has been using tensions with China over the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands as an excuse to amend the Constitution and allow the country to have a national guard. Constitutional restrictions on the use of military force are disappearing bit by bit. If given enough of an excuse, Japan could arm itself with nuclear weapons in no time at all. It already has 30 tons of plutonium, having earned permission from the US to reprocess spent nuclear fuel. It also has superior transportation technology. While it isn't clear whether it has the reentry technology needed to operate intercontinental ballistic missiles, its rocket technology is second to none. [Japanese remilitarisation]
North Korea could be preparing more nuke tests and to launch a long-range rocket
Posted on : Feb.16,2013 14:06 KST Modified on : Feb.16,2013 14:21 KST At the centenary parade for North Korea founder Kim Il-sung in Pyongyang on April 15, 2012, North Korea displayed the KN-08, a new long-range missile. YTN quoted experts as saying the missile has a range of 3,000km. If additional UN sanctions are implemented, North Korea could test this missile. So far, only engine testing has been completed. (KCNA/Yonhap News) Website 38 North reports intelligence that indicates preparations around the rocket launch area; Reuters says more nuke tests could be on the way By Park Hyun, Washington correspondent North Korea has told China that it plans to conduct one or two more nuclear tests this year, according to a source with access to the highest levels of government in both countries, Reuters reported on Feb. 16. These tests would reportedly be intended to draw the US into direct talks. [NK US policy] [Test]
Hecker takes hard look at North Korea's nuclear test
By Beth Duff-Brown North Korea conducted an underground nuclear test on Feb. 12, prompting President Barack Obama to call the detonation of a miniature nuclear device a “highly provocative act” that threatens U.S. security and international peace. It is the third nuclear test by Pyongyang since 2006 and is escalating concern that the isolated Stalinist state is now closer to building a bomb small enough to be fitted on a missile capable of striking the United States and its allies. The test was conducted hours before Obama’s annual State of the Union speech. North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency said the test was conducted, “in a safe and perfect way … with the use of a smaller and light A-bomb, unlike the previous ones, yet with great explosive power.” The statement said the nuclear device did not impose “any negative impact” on the environment. North Korea said the atomic test was merely its “first response” to what it called U.S. threats and said there would be unspecified “second and third measures of greater intensity” if the United States remains hostile to the North. Washington had led the call for more U.N. sanctions against Pyongyang after the North launched its first rocket and put a satellite into obit in December. While the North said the launch was for its civilian space program, the Obama administration believes it was part of a covert program to develop ballistic missiles that can carry nuclear warheads. [Test] [US NK policy]
A Bomb in the Year of the Snake
Melkulangara BHADRAKUMAR | 14.02.2013 | 00:00 Everything about North Korea has to be speculative. That has been and is still the main problem. But one speculation seems to be ending, finally. It concerns China’s apparent ambivalence about North Korea’s nuclear program. Increasingly, Beijing is coming out on the ‘right side of history’. Which in turn would unleash a host of profound consequences for the security of the Asia-Pacific and global politics as a whole, and, most important, for the future of what China’s new leader Xi Jinping enigmatically alluded to – but left undefined – as his “two great powers” concept during his visit to the United States last year when he was still a mere ‘princeling’ [China NK]
North Korean Nuclear Test: Implications for Asian Security
by Muthiah Alagappa Policy must begin with an examination of the possible consequences of a nuclear North Korea for regional security and for the world. The primary purpose of nuclear weapons is deterrence. There is no conceivable political purpose for the offensive use of nuclear weapons. Blackmail, diplomatic leverage, etc. are situation dependent and not outright consequences of nuclear weapons. If North Korea were to deploy its limited capability in a pre-emptive strike against the United States or its allies (assuming there was a political and strategic rationale for such use) it would suffer huge retaliatory damage. No political cause would be served by such a strike. In sum, North Korea can do little with its nuclear weapon [Deterrence]
Q&A: North Korea finally conducts nuclear test, what now?
February 13, 2013 -- Updated 0307 GMT (1107 HKT) Expert: North Korea test 'not a surprise' STORY HIGHLIGHTS Test a "step forward" in North Korea's nuclear ambitions, says Chinoy U.S. likely to push for tougher sanctions, he says China's reaction to nuclear test will be key Timing linked to power transitions in the region and propaganda value Editor's note: Mike Chinoy, a senior follow at the University of South California, the author of Meltdown: The Inside Story of the North Korean Nuclear Crisis and a former CNN senior international correspondent explains the implications of North Korea's third nuclear test. Hong Kong (CNN) -- After much anticipation, and against the wishes of the international community, North Korea finally pushed the button on its third underground nuclear test, this time using more sophisticated technology than its previous attempts. While it marks another milestone in the short, but increasingly eventful, reign of young leader Kim Jong Un, it also threatens to undermine an already fragile security situation in the region. [test]
No Radiation Detected from N.Korea's Nuclear Test
The Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety failed to detect any traces of radiation in the atmosphere that authorities hoped would provide clues about North Korea's recent nuclear test. The institute deployed sensors aboard a ship in the East Sea for 12 hours on Wednesday but was unable to detect any traces of xenon, which could have helped authorities figure out whether the North tested a plutonium- or uranium-based bomb. A large proportion of xenon in the atmosphere points to a plutonium-based weapon, while a prevalence of krypton suggests highly enriched uranium was involved. The same thing happened after North Korea's second nuclear test in 2009. At the time, South Korea and the U.S. nonetheless concluded from other data that a plutonium-based weapon was tested. The North built a winding shaft rather than a straight one leading down to the underground test site in order to cushion the blast and prevent radiation from emerging. Satellite images show that the entrance to the western shaft of the underground test site in Punggye-ri, North Hamgyong Province remained intact, said a government source here. "North Korea seems to have built a shaft sturdy enough so no radiation escaped." [Test]
S.Korea Unveils Homegrown Cruise Missiles
The Defense Ministry on Thursday responded to North Korea's recent nuclear test by unveiling ship-to-shore and submarine-to-ground cruise missiles that have already been deployed warfare-ready. Dubbed the Haeseong-2 and Haeseong-3, respectively, the missiles have been developed with South Korea's own technology. They are both modified versions of a surface-to-surface cruise missile unveiled last year but are designed to be launched from a ship or a submarine. Their maximum range of 1,000 km covers all of North Korea. The Haeseong-3 is a strategic weapon capable of being launched from a submarine that can stealthily approach the North Korean coast. Only a handful of countries have their own similar missiles. They include the U.S. (Tomahawk), the U.K. (Tomahawk), Russia (Klub-S), France (SCALP Naval), China, and India [Cruise missiles]
North Korean nukes? Round up the usual suspects!
Posted By Mike Green Thursday, February 14, 2013 - 10:55 AM Share The international community's cynical and feckless response to North Korean nuclear testing evokes nothing more than Claude Rein's character in "Casablanca," who puts on an act for his Nazi overlords after the murder of their commander by ordering the Vichy police officers to "round up the usual suspects." With Pyongyang's most recent and dangerous test on Feb. 12, can we afford to just pretend we are serious yet again? [Test] [US NK policy]
Nuclear test had no impact on China's environment
Shanghai Daily, February 14, 2013 Adjust font size: North Korea's third nuclear test on Tuesday had no negative impact on China's environment, China's environment watchdog said yesterday. A Beijing resident watches photos on a bulletin board outside the DPRK embassy in Beijing. The Ministry of Environmental Protection said no radiation had been detected from the nuclear test by 10am yesterday based on meteorological data and more than 150 monitoring stations. "North Korea's third nuclear test has not posed any threat to our people's health and our nation's environment," a statement on its website said. "We haven't detected any radiation from the nuclear test within our border." The ministry said it had sent task forces to northeastern China, which borders North Korea, to enhance monitoring and take soil and air samples. Data from 25 monitoring stations and 12 mobile spots in regions close to the test site showed that radiation levels were normal and within the daily average, the ministry said. The ministry also quoted analysis by the China Meteorological Administration that if any radiation had been released, it would move toward the southeast and not have any impact on China. [test]
How Powerful Was N.Korea's Nuke Test?
Estimates of the strength of North Korea's nuclear test on Monday vary wildly. South Korea believes it equaled 6 to 7 kilotons of TNT, but Japanese experts it may have been as much as 8 to 10 kilotons. Germany's BER, a state-run geological research institute, said on its website that the latest test was equivalent to 40 kilotons of TNT. [Test] [Intelligence]
N.Korea 'Has 100 Mobile Missile Launch Platforms'
North Korea has about 100 mobile launch platforms for ballistic missiles, which could pose the biggest threat to South Korea if the regime succeeds in miniaturizing nuclear warheads. It would be hard to detect these heavy trucks and strike them because they keep moving around. [Miniaturisation] [Missiles]
Will N.Korea Use Its Nukes?
Experts predict that if North Korea continues to carry out nuclear tests, it will succeed in producing nuclear warheads that can be loaded onto ballistic missiles in four to five years. But they believe the chances are low that it will actually use them. One researcher at a state-run think tank said, "We cannot completely rule out that North Korea will use nuclear weapons, but it will be as a threatening tool." Yun Duk-min, a professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy, said, "When North Korea has nuclear weapons in hand, it will be hard for South Korea to retaliate for military provocations" like the sinking of the Navy corvette Cheonan and shelling of Yeonpyeong Island. [Deterrence]
Cruise missiles forward deployed
By Kang Seung-woo Hyunmoo-3C The ROK Armed Forces has deployed cruise missiles that can hit anywhere in North Korea, while a push is being given to its plan to develop a ballistic missile that can strike any target in the North. In addition, an independent missile defense shield is being planned. The Ministry of National Defense revealed Wednesday a missile-based defense and offense plan following a third nuclear test by the North a day earlier, indicating Seoul’s readiness to go head to head in what is turning into an arms race triggered by the North’s series of provocations that also included the Dec. 12 long-range rocket launch. [Missiles] [Military balance]
With latest nuclear test, Kim Jong Eun signals a familiar, familial policy
By Chico Harlan, Thursday, February 14, 2:19 AM SEOUL — In power for barely more than a year, North Korean leader Kim Jong Eun has adhered overwhelmingly to the policies of his father, using a familiar mix of internal repression and nuclear showmanship while all but dashing hopes that he would emerge as a reformer. Although analysts caution that Kim can still change course, the apparent status quo on policy carries dark implications, prolonging a government that relishes isolation, threatens its neighbors, values weapons over food for its people and keeps roughly one in every 120 of its citizens in gulags. [Media] [Agency] [prisoners]
New Developments at the Tonghae Rocket Test Site
By 38 North A 38 North exclusive, with analysis by Nick Hansen. Summary While the Sohae rocket test facility was the focus of international attention in 2012, construction of new facilities at the Tonghae Satellite Launching Ground (commonly referred to as Musudan-ri), previously slowed by the typhoons that ravaged the east coast of North Korea last summer, has made important progress since late October 2012. Commercial satellite imagery through January 2103 confirms activity at the old launch pad, possibly to modify it in preparation for an upcoming test of a liquid-fueled rocket. While it would be premature to reach that conclusion without more recent imagery, press reports have speculated that the DPRK is planning to conduct the first launch of the Musudan intermediate-range or the KN-08 long-range rocket, both mobile missiles. An additional possibility is another launch of an Unha rocket. [Rocketry]
ISIS Statement on North Korean Nuclear Test
by David Albright and Andrea Stricker February 12, 2013 On Tuesday, February 12 at 2:57 GMT/UTC, North Korea claims that it tested its third nuclear device. The official KCNA news agency stated: “It was confirmed that the nuclear test, that was carried out at a high level in a safe and perfect manner using a miniaturized and lighter nuclear device with greater explosive force than previously, did not pose any negative impact on the surrounding ecological environment.” The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization recorded a seismic event 5.0 in magnitude and the U.S. Geological Survey recorded a shallow earthquake of 5.1 in magnitude. The test occurred at Punggye-ri, site of its 2006 and 2009 tests, which recorded magnitudes of 4.1 and 4.52, respectively. ISIS assessed on February 3 that North Korea was likely preparing for a third nuclear test based on preparations at the site visible in overhead satellite imagery. While much information is still unknown about the nature of North Korea’s nuclear test, several key points should be made: [Test] [US NK policy]
Analysis: What is driving North Korea's nuclear test plan?
By Dr John Swenson-Wright Chatham House North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (C) presides over a meeting on state security in an undated picture released by North Korea's official KCNA news agency in Pyongyang on 27 January 2013 A nuclear test - if it went ahead - would be the first under Kim Jong-un Official announcements from the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), including a 24 January statement by the National Defence Committee (NDC), indicate that North Korea may be about to test a nuclear device - the third such instance, following two earlier tests in 2006 and 2009. The NDC statement warns of the launch of a series of "long-range rockets" and a "higher level" nuclear test targeted against "the US, the sworn enemy of the Korean people". Satellite imagery analysed by US-based proliferation specialists reveals activity at Punggye-ri, the site of the 2006 and 2009 tests, and suggest that the North may be sealing a mountainside tunnel in imminent preparation for a test. Why might the North be preparing to test? [Test] [NK US policy]
Statement in Response to Third DPRK Nuclear Explosive Test
U.S. Working Group for Peace & Demilitarization in Asia & the Pacific 1) We come from diverse backgrounds and hold a range of analyses (or perspectives) approaching the North Korean nuclear weapons test and the further militarization of Asia and the Pacific. 2) We oppose the development, possession of, and threats to use nuclear weapons by any nation. We are committed to creating a world free of nuclear weapons. We have deep concerns that North Korea’s third nuclear weapons test contributes to an increasingly dangerous region-wide nuclear arms race. We understand the North Korean test was part of a cycle of threat and response to previous U.S. nuclear threats, and to continued military provocations. We cannot ignore the double standards and hypocrisies of the members of the “nuclear club” who refuse to fulfill their Article VI disarmament commitments of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty commitments by “modernizing” their omnicidal arsenals while insisting that other nations refrain from becoming nuclear powers. North Korea has conducted three explosive nuclear tests, compared to the United States’ 1,054. [Test]
A More Effecitive Approach to North Korea’s Nuclear Program
Posted on February 12, 2013 by Nuclear Risk North Korea appears to have conducted its third nuclear test today, with a New York Times article stating, “a magnitude 3.9 magnitude earthquake and a magnitude 4.5 earthquake were detected in the North’s 2006 and 2009 nuclear tests. South Korean, U.S. and Japanese seismic monitoring agencies put the magnitude of Tuesday’s quake between 4.9 and 5.2.” Since each increase of 1.0 corresponds to 31.6 times as much yield and estimates of the 2009 test ranged from 2.4 kton to 20 kton, today’s test seems to have yielded between 15 and 100 kton. While a dangerous and highly regrettable event, this third North Korean nuclear test was an accident waiting to happen – and one which might well have been averted if the US had adopted a more effective approach to the North’s nuclear program. My colleague, and former Los Alamos Director Sig Hecker has said for years that we should temporarily put aside our current requirement that the North agree to give up its nuclear weapons before we will talk with them, noting that otherwise they will almost certainly do more testing, which will allow them to mount their warheads on a missile, something they could not do based on the two tests prior to this. [Test]
North Korea’s Third Nuclear Test
By Victor Cha, Ellen Kim Feb 12, 2013 At 11:57am (local time) February 12, North Korea, in defiance of the international warnings, appears to have conducted an underground detonation that is widely believed to be a nuclear weapons test. An “artificial earthquake” was detected from the northeastern area of the country with a magnitude of 5.0-5.1 according to the U.S. Geological Survey. North Korea's official news agency claims that this was a successful nuclear test using a smaller, miniaturized device. The White House released a prepared statement this morning condemning the test. If confirmed, this would be the country’s third nuclear test since its previous tests in 2006 and 2009 and also the first test since Kim Jong-un took power after his father’s death. The nuclear test came against the backdrop of already heightened tension in the region following North Korea’s hostile statements in reaction to the recent UN Security Council Resolution 2087 against the country, which was unanimously adopted in late January 2013 in response to its long-range rocket launch using ballistic missile technology in December 2012. [Test] [US NK policy] [Hardliner]
Impact on Nuclear Extended Deterrence
Michael Schiffer Session 6: Critical Military Issues: Deterrence, Compellence, Reassurance NEW APPROACH TO SECURITY IN NORTHEAST ASIA: BREAKING THE GRIDLOCK WORKSHOP, Washington DC, Oct 9-10, 2012 The Halperin proposal for a comprehensive security settlement for the Korean Peninsula raises three critical issues regarding extended deterrence in Northeast Asia: the security challenges extended deterrence is intended to address; the differing perspectives and interests of the players in the system; and the interplay of shifting strategic considerations and a stable security settlement leading to a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula.1 For the first, while the North Korean nuclear program may be both the most dangerous and even the most likely security challenge that faces the region, it is far from the only one. There are multiple demand signals that extended deterrence must respond to, including those that arises from the challenges of cross-domain deterrence in an era of technological change, and a need to balance the requirements of deterrence on Peninsula to assure that as we answer one problem - that of North Korea's nuclear program - by unhinging the region's broader deterrence-stable security environment or by displacing "solved" security anxieties only to create new ones, elsewhere, that lead to a less stable and less secure regional environment. [Deterrence] [Inversion]
UN slams DPRK's nuclear test
Xinhua, February 13, 2013 The UN Security Council on Tuesday strongly condemned the third underground nuclear test conducted by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), saying the latest move by Pyongyang "is a grave violation" of relevant resolutions of the UN Security Council. "The members of the Security Council strongly condemned this test, which is a grave violation of Security Council resolution 1718(2006), 1874(2009) and 2087(2013), and therefore there continues to exist a clear threat to international peace and security," said a statement read to the press by South Korean Foreign Minister Kim Sung-Hwan. South Korea, one of the 10 non-permanent members of the 15- nation Security Council, holds the rotating council presidency for February. Kim is at the UN Headquarters in New York to chair an open debate of the Security Council on the protection of civilians in armed conflict. [Test]
Top Chinese, US diplomats talk on DPRK
China.org.cn, February 13, 2013 Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi held telephone talks late Tuesday with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry on the latest nuclear test of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). During the talks, Yang said China has explicitly stated its position on the DPRK's nuclear test. China called on all parties concerned to keep focused on the overall situation, deal with the issue properly, and prevent the situation from escalating, he added. All parties concerned should stick to the direction of a peaceful solution, resolve the issue of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula within the framework of the six-party talks, and safeguard peace and stability on the peninsula and in Northeast Asia at large, Yang said. [Test]
How Powerful Is N.Korea's Nuclear Bomb?
A senior researcher at the Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources in Daejeon on Tuesday explains seismic waves observed following North Koreas third nuclear test. A senior researcher at the Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources in Daejeon on Tuesday explains seismic waves observed following North Korea's third nuclear test. North Korea's latest nuclear test was estimated to equal 6 or 7 kilotons of TNT, which makes it neither a failure nor a resounding success, according to experts. "There is no such thing as a failed nuclear test," said Kim Tae-woo, former head of the Korea Institute for National Unification. "Even if there was no nuclear blast, scientists can gather data on what went wrong, and this is how the North has been able to continue developing nuclear weapons." [test]
Nature of N.Korean Nuke Test Leaves Outside World Stumped
North Korea in a statement on Tuesday said its nuclear test demonstrated "the excellence of nuclear deterrents of different types." It is unclear whether the statement, from the official KCNA news agency, merely plays to Western speculation or whether it means that North Korea has made progress in producing highly enriched uranium. The previous nuclear tests apparently used plutonium-based bombs. The use of highly enriched uranium would mean that North Korea is several steps closer to miniaturizing a nuclear device so it could be fitted on a missile. Some pundits were struck by the North's claim to have made "smaller, lighter atomic bombs with great explosive power" in the same statement, but again it is unclear whether this merely picked up on speculation in the foreign press. Thus it is possible that the latest test was another plutonium bomb. Shin Beom-chul at Korea Institute for Defense Analyses said if the North had used uranium, it would have boasted about it rather than simply saying "smaller, lighter atomic bombs." Whether uranium has been used could be gauged by analysis of radioactive particles in the air, and they cannot be detected until at least two or three days after a test. But if nuclear particles remain only in the test shaft, the outside world will be left in the dark. Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin told an emergency meeting of the National Assembly's Defense Committee that the U.S. has dispatched a spy aircraft that was also used after the North's previous nuclear tests to collect air samples. National Intelligence Service Director Won Sei-hoon in the same meeting said the North is exaggerating its achievement. But experts worry that North Korea may succeed in developing viable nuclear bombs within four or five years if it makes progress at the current rate. [Test] [Intelligence]
North Korea’s next task is developing reentry technology
Posted on : Feb.13,2013 10:46 KSTModified on : Feb.13,2013 10:48 KST Third nuclear test apparently lighter and stronger, but intercontinental ballistic missile believed to still be years away By Kim Kyu-won and Ha Eo-young, staff reporters Following North Korea’s announcement that it used a “smaller and lighter” nuclear bomb in its third nuclear test, which took place on Feb. 12, the next question is whether Pyongyang can develop an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Since this is a problem that is directly connected with a threat to the continental US, the US is expected to pay close attention to developments in North Korea. With its emphasis on “smaller and lighter” in a report by the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) just after the nuclear test was carried out, North Korea officially announced that they are focusing on developing an ICMB. ICBMs have a range of 5,500km or more and are typically used to deliver nuclear warheads. At present, if North Korea is to develop ICBMs, there are two problems that it must resolve. The first of these is making the nuclear payload small and light enough to be loaded onto a missile. The second is upgrading its long-range rocket with the technology to leave and then reenter the earth’s atmosphere. It will probably take 4 to 5 more years for the North to develop these two additional forms of technology, military experts say. [Test] [Re-entry] [Miniaturisation]
KCNA Report on Successful 3rd Underground Nuclear Test
Pyongyang, February 12 (KCNA) -- The Korean Central News Agency released the following report on Tuesday: The scientific field for national defence of the DPRK succeeded in the third underground nuclear test at the site for underground nuclear test in the northern part of the DPRK on Tuesday. The test was carried out as part of practical measures of counteraction to defend the country's security and sovereignty in the face of the ferocious hostile act of the U.S. which wantonly violated the DPRK's legitimate right to launch satellite for peaceful purposes. The test was conducted in a safe and perfect way on a high level with the use of a smaller and light A-bomb unlike the previous ones, yet with great explosive power. It was confirmed that the test did not give any adverse effect to the surrounding ecological environment. The specific features of the function and explosive power of the A-bomb and all other measurements fully tallied with the values of the design, physically demonstrating the good performance of the DPRK's nuclear deterrence that has become diversified. The nuclear test will greatly encourage the army and people of the DPRK in their efforts to build a thriving nation with the same spirit and mettle as displayed in conquering space, and offer an important occasion in ensuring peace and stability in the Korean Peninsula and the region. [Test]
AFSC statement in response to North Korea’s nuclear test
The American Friends Service Committee (AFSC) is profoundly saddened by the news that North Korea has carried out its third nuclear test on Feb. 12. As longtime activists against the use of nuclear weapons, we urge South Korea, the United States, Japan and others to respond with intensified diplomatic efforts to address this crisis and its underlying causes. Since mere days after the first nuclear bomb was dropped in 1945, AFSC has worked ceaselessly for the elimination of nuclear weapons, which are inherently genocidal. Developing, stockpiling and making use of these weapons takes a catastrophic toll—in human and fiscal costs—on individual nations and on the world. Nuclear weapons deplete countries’ vital resources for human development, resources needed for education, agriculture, health, infrastructure and environmental protection. Nuclear arsenals also feed an endless cycle of mistrust and hostility, as advances in any nation’s nuclear weapons program only spur proliferation by others. Since 1997, AFSC has worked with and in North Korea on agricultural and economic issues. We know from our own experience that Americans and North Koreans can communicate and work together productively, from a basis of mutual respect. The cycle of hostility in the Korean peninsula has gone on for over 60 years, with the U.S., South Korea, and North Korea locked in a war mentality. Nuclear weapons tests by North Korea and war games by the U.S. and South Korea only feed this tragic and dangerous cycle. Like all previous U.S. administrations during these decades, the Obama Administration has missed numerous opportunities to explore constructive diplomacy on the Korean peninsula. [Test] [False balance]
North Korean Miniaturization
By David Albright On Tuesday, February 12, 2013 at 2:57 GMT/UTC, North Korea tested its third nuclear device. The official KCNA news agency stated: “It was confirmed that the nuclear test, that was carried out at a high level in a safe and perfect manner using a miniaturised and lighter nuclear device with greater explosive force than previously, did not pose any negative impact on the surrounding ecological environment.” Much information is still unknown about the nature of North Korea’s nuclear test and thus caution is warranted in interpreting this test. And the question remains. Can North Korea miniaturize its nuclear warheads to fit on its ballistic missiles? With North Korea having shown greater competence in launching an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of reaching the continental United States, the discussion about North Korea’s ability to mount a nuclear warhead on such a missile is more pressing. Although such a prospect appears to be several years off, the chance that North Korea could mount and deploy a warhead on the shorter range Nodong missile is a more critical concern. Moreover, North Korea has given indications that it is thinking about deploying its nuclear weapons on such delivery systems. [Missile] [Miniaturisation] [Warhead]
NK quake stems from 'explosion-like' characteristics: CTBTO
By Lee Chi-dong WASHINGTON, Feb. 12 (Yonhap) -- A global agency on banning nuclear tests said Monday that it has picked up evidence of an unusual seismic event in North Korea which is apparently attributable to the detonation of a nuclear bomb. "The event shows clear explosion-like characteristics and its location is roughly congruent with the 2006 and 2009 DPRK (North Korea) nuclear tests," CTBTO Executive Secretary Tibor Toth said in a statement. CTBTO is the short for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization to be established to implement a global convention that outlaws nuclear tests. Toth is now leading the preparatory commission for CTBTO headquartered in Vienna, Austria. "For now, further data and analysis are necessary to establish what kind of event this is," he said. If confirmed as a nuclear test, he added, this act would constitute a clear threat to international peace and security, and challenges efforts made to strengthen global nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation, in particular by ending nuclear testing. [Test] [UNUS]
DPRK says it conducts 3rd nuclear test
Xinhua, February 12, 2013 The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) said on Tuesday it has successfully conducted the third underground nuclear test, according to the official KCNA news agency. The test was part of the country's "practical measures of counteraction" to defend its security and sovereignty against hostile U.S.policies, which it claimed have violated DPRK's "rights to launch satellite for peaceful purposes," the KCNA said in a statement. The KCNA also said the test was done in a "safe and perfect" way with a smaller and light A-bomb unlike the previous ones, yet with great explosive power. The statement has finally confirmed the conjecture of the international community that linked an earthquake occurred Tuesday in the DPRK with Pyongyang's plan for a fresh nuclear test, which has been strongly opposed. The UN Security Council is scheduled to meet in an emergency meeting on Tuesday to discuss the situation, diplomatic sources told Xinhua. Earlier, the DPRK vowed to proceed with missile and nuclear tests targeting the United States, its "sworn enemy," after the UN Security Council adopted a resolution to condemn its Dec. 12 rocket launch. Pyongyang conducted similar nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009. [Test]
U.S. Mulling Military Response to N.Korean Nuke Test
The U.S. is still considering a military response if North Korea conducts another nuclear test. In a press briefing last Thursday, U.S. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland answered a question about a possible pre-emptive strike on the North by saying, "Well, obviously we don't take anything off the table. We never do." One military response could be a massive show of force like a joint South Korea-U.S. military exercise, pundits speculate. The U.S. is also reportedly considering a maritime blockade. An expert with a government-funded think tank said, "A wholesale maritime blockade could lead to an armed conflict, so it's more likely to be partial and symbolic, taking the form of intensified searches and interdictions of North Korean ships suspected of carrying contraband such as weapons." [Test]
North Korea nuclear test takes place
Regime confirms it set off its third nuclear bomb, signalled by an earthquake detected by South Korea, Japan and the US Justin McCurry in Tokyo and Tania Branigan in Beijing guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 12 February 2013 07.13 GMT North Korea has carried out a nuclear test, signalled by an earthquake and later confirmed by the regime. Photograph: Yonhap/EPA North Korea has drawn widespread condemnation after conducting a nuclear test in defiance of international bans – a development signalled by an earthquake detected in the country and later confirmed by the regime. The test, which took place in the north-east of the country just before noon local time, could bring North Korea a step closer to developing a nuclear warhead small enough to be mounted on a long-range missile and possibly bringing the west coast of the US within striking distance. The authorities in Pyongyang said scientists had set off a "miniaturised" nuclear device with a greater explosive force than those used in two previous nuclear tests, in 2006 and 2009. "It was confirmed that the nuclear test that was carried out at a high level in a safe and perfect manner using a miniaturised and lighter nuclear device with greater explosive force than previously did not pose any negative impact on the surrounding ecological environment," KCNA, the North's official news agency, announced. The agency said the test had been in response to "outrageous" US hostility that "violently" undermined the regime's right to peacefully launch satellites – a reference to the condemnation and tighter sanctions that greeted Pyongyang's successful rocket launch almost two months ago. [Test]
North Korea confirms its third nuclear test
Posted on : Feb.12,2013 13:55 KSTModified on : Feb.12,2013 14:59 KST UN Security Council schedules emergency meeting to discuss stronger sanctions on Pyongyang At 11:57am on Feb. 12, North Korea conducted its third nuclear test, despite efforts by the international community to dissuade it. The Korea Central News Agency announced in the afternoon that the test went ahead successfully. The news agency reported that a smaller bomb was tested than in previous tests, but with a stronger force. The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) announced the detection of tremors consistent with a man-made earthquake slightly north of the nuclear test site in Punggye Village. The Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources (KIGMR) detected an earthquake that registered 4.9 on the Richter magnitude scale and an explosive yield of 7 kilotons, meaning the explosive appears to have used uranium or plutonium, not hydrogen. [Test]
KCNA Report on Successful 3rd Underground Nuclear Test
Pyongyang, February 12 (KCNA) -- The Korean Central News Agency released the following report on Tuesday: The scientific field for national defence of the DPRK succeeded in the third underground nuclear test at the site for underground nuclear test in the northern part of the DPRK on Tuesday. The test was carried out as part of practical measures of counteraction to defend the country's security and sovereignty in the face of the ferocious hostile act of the U.S. which wantonly violated the DPRK's legitimate right to launch satellite for peaceful purposes. The test was conducted in a safe and perfect way on a high level with the use of a smaller and light A-bomb unlike the previous ones, yet with great explosive power. It was confirmed that the test did not give any adverse effect to the surrounding ecological environment. The specific features of the function and explosive power of the A-bomb and all other measurements fully tallied with the values of the design, physically demonstrating the good performance of the DPRK's nuclear deterrence that has become diversified. The nuclear test will greatly encourage the army and people of the DPRK in their efforts to build a thriving nation with the same spirit and mettle as displayed in conquering space, and offer an important occasion in ensuring peace and stability in the Korean Peninsula and the region. -0- [Test]
S. Korea condemns N.K. nuclear test as violation of U.N. resolutions
South Korea condemned North Korea's third nuclear test as a violation of U.N. resolutions, an "unacceptable threat" to peace and security in the region and a "head-on challenge" to the international community. The government also warned that Pyongyang will be seriously held accountable for its defiance in an official statement issued after President Lee Myung-bak held an emergency meeting of the National Security Council as well as a meeting with President-elect Park Geun-hye. The nuclear test "is an unacceptable threat to peace and security on the Korean Peninsula and in the region, and a head-on challenge to the entire international community," senior presidential secretary Chun Yung-woo said, reading the government statement. [Test]
100 missile researchers to be hired
By Jun Ji-hye A state-run military research center plans to hire 100 new staff members to develop technologies related to missiles and other weapons, a Ministry of National Defense (MND) official said Sunday. The Agency for Defense Development (ADD) will have the new personnel work on ballistic missiles with ranges of up to 800 kilometers that can reach all parts of North Korea, the official said. In addition, the military has set the goal of completing an automated control system by 2015. “A 4.2 billion won ($3.8 million) budget was earmarked for recruiting professionals. We are planning to select a maximum of 100,” the official said. Last October, South Korea and the United States agreed on revising a bilateral guideline governing missile development for the first time in 11 years, since the last amendment in 2001. The revision allows Seoul to develop more powerful ballistic missiles with a range of up to 800 kilometers, up from the current 300 kilometers. Seoul plans to deploy ballistic missiles with ranges of 550 kilometers and 800 kilometers within five years. [Missiles] [Military balance]
N. Korea notifies U.S., China of nuclear test plans a day earlier: S. Korean official
N. Korea notifies U.S., China of nuclear test plans a day earlier: S. Korean official [Test]
North Korea tests ‘miniaturized’ nuclear device; may be seeking warhead for ballistic missile
By Tom Lasseter and Jonathan S. Landay | McClatchy Newspapers BEIJING — North Korea on Tuesday announced that it had conducted a nuclear test in what amounted to a sharp challenge of the U.N. Security Council, which warned the rogue nation last month of “significant action” if it undertook such a provocation. North Korean state media said the nation tested a “miniaturized” nuclear device. If true, the development strongly suggests that Pyongyang is working to develop a nuclear warhead capable of fitting on top of a missile. In December, Pyongyang had defied United Nations’ sanctions by launching a satellite that was seen as a thinly disguised test of ballistic missile technology. With President Obama scheduled to give his State of the Union address on Tuesday night, it remains unclear what recourse the United States has to address the situation. [Test]
North Korea confirms third nuclear test
By Chico Harlan, Updated: Tuesday, February 12, 7:20 PM SEOUL — North Korea on Tuesday conducted an underground explosion of what it called a “miniaturized” nuclear weapon, testing a technology that could theoretically be paired with a long-range missile to threaten the United States. Pyongyang confirmed the test nearly three hours after unusual seismic activity was detected near the secretive police state’s mountainous test site. The test follows weeks of threats from the North to build up its nuclear capacity and carry out an “all-out action of high intensity.” Following a flurry of activity at the site — where tests were previously conducted in 2006 and 2009 — North Korea recently removed most of the men and equipment from the location, an apparent sign the test was about to be conducted, according to South Korea’s Yonhap news agency. A Japanese government spokesman said the United States government was informed Monday that a blast could be imminent. [Test]
Update on the North Korean Nuclear Test Site
By 38 North Summary Satellite imagery beginning in January indicates that activity has spread to other areas at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test site beyond the southern tunnel entrance where North Korea’s third nuclear test was expected to take place. In addition to continuing activity at the southern tunnel entrance and its associated command bunker, imagery indicates the appearance of a possible satellite communications (SATCOM) antenna dish near the 2009 nuclear test tunnel with a clear view of the southern tunnel entrance that could be used to transmit data and video from the third nuclear test. Also, recent imagery reveals new activity in the southeast, a 25 square meter clearing. While the purpose of this activity remains unclear, it warrants watching since one possible explanation for this clearing is that it is the beginning of construction of a new test tunnel for a future detonation (figure 1). [Test]
NK hints at possibility of not conducting nuke test
North Korea hinted a possibility that it would not carry out the nuclear test, Saturday, saying, “The United States has been speculating the nuclear test, being ignorant of “significant measure.” The North’s state-run website ‘Uriminjokkiri’ said, “The U.S. has been exaggerating about the possible sanctions based on speculation that we will conduct the third nuclear test.” Japan’s broadcaster NHK while reporting the comment of the website said the North was attempting to induce the U.S. into the direct negotiation. Regarding the significant measure, the website said North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s such remark was meant to protect the national interests, not threatening others.
What to Expect from a North Korean Nuclear Test
Pyongyang is about to make some more trouble. Here's what to look for when Kim Jong Un debuts his new bomb. BY SIEGFRIED S. HECKER | FEBRUARY 4, 2013 Pyongyang lashed out harshly at the United States following the most recent U.N. Security Council resolution condemning its December missile test. The Kim Jong Un regime threatened to increase its nuclear deterrent both quantitatively and qualitatively and vowed to conduct a third nuclear test at a "higher level." So what might we expect from another test? Why, what, how will we know, when, and what difference will it make? First, why test? Without additional nuclear tests, North Korea is greatly limited in its ability to miniaturize a nuclear device to fit on one of its missiles. The 2006 and 2009 tests demonstrated that North Korea can build a nuclear device, but that its nuclear arsenal is likely limited to bulky devices that would need to be delivered by plane, boat, or van, thereby greatly limiting their deterrent value. To make its nuclear arsenal more menacing and provide the deterrent power Pyongyang's vitriolic pronouncements are aimed to achieve, North Korea must demonstrate that it can deliver the weapons on missiles at a distance. [Test]
North Korea could be developing a hydrogen bomb
Posted on : Feb.7,2013 21:11 KST A satellite photo of the North Korean nuclear test site in Pungye Village rele ased by the US-Korea Institute at John Hopkins University. (photo taken from the US-Korea Institute website) Ahead of expected third nuclear test, Seoul believes Pyongyang is testing lighter and more deadly weapons By Kim Kyu-won, staff reporter The South Korean government is under the impression that if North Korea goes ahead with its third nuclear test, it would likely use a small and lightweight nuclear warhead that could be mounted on a missile. It also appears likely that it will use highly enriched uranium instead of plutonium, which it is difficult to produce more of. Speaking before the National Assembly’s national defense committee on Feb. 6, Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Jung Seung-jo raised another possibility: that North Korea could begin developing a hydrogen bomb, a weapon with hundreds of times the force of an atomic bomb. [Test]
Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman: preemptive strike would be made against NK nukes
Posted on : Feb.7,2013 21:02 KST The intention of a strike would be self-defense against nuclear strike, but risk of war is inevitable By Kang Tae-ho, senior staff writer The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff responded on Feb. 6 that the South Korean military would risk war in attempting a preemptive strike against North Korea if signs of an imminent nuclear weapon launch against the South were detected. Speaking before a plenary session of the National Assembly’s national defense committee, Jung Seung-jo clearly stated that the military was willing to take the risk when asked about it by Saenuri Party (NFP) chairman Yoo Seong-min.
Practically Unusable: A North Korean Nuclear Device
Nautilus Peace and Security (NAPSNet) Policy Forum Special Reports Weekly Report- Author’s Blog Daily Report Archive Go to the weekly report for 7 February 2013 Exactly when North Korea will detonate another device is anyone’s guess. But let’s remember, aside from the “glorious” details such as type and yield, North Korea’s nuclear capabilities are ultimately only good for committing national suicide or calling for talks. When North Korea calls for talks, they’re approaching the international community as a pauper with hat in hand, asking for money or else… It is possible, but extremely unlikely North Korea would risk swift and devastating retaliation by attempting to launch a missile or nuclear device at any third country. It’s time to talk with China about a new and stabilizing framework with North Korea on the inside instead of on the outside. [US NK policy]
'No Pre-Emptive Strike Planned on N.Korea's Nuke Test Site'
The chairman of South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff weighed into speculation about North Korea's imminent nuclear test on Wednesday, guessing that the North is preparing to test a "pre-hydrogen" nuclear weapon. Gen. Jung Seung-jo made the guess in a report to the National Assembly's Defense Committee on Wednesday. The weapon could be a "boosted fission weapon," a type of nuclear bomb that uses a small amount of fusion fuel to increase the yield of a fission reaction, he said. This could make it possible to drastically reduce the size and weight of nuclear weapons to less than one ton, small enough to fit a nuclear warhead on a missile. "When you develop nuclear weapons, you have such a goal in mind," Jung said. "I think the North has made a lot of progress in that regard." He warned that South Korea will launch a pre-emptive strike "if there's a clear sign of the enemy using a nuclear weapon" but no such attack is planned on the nuclear test site in Pyunggye-ri, North Hamgyong Province. "We may change our mind if the situation changes," he added. Defense Committee chairman Yoo Seung-min said, "Are you sticking to your guns even if a pre-emptive strike on the North's nuclear weapons will lead to a full-scale war?" Jung replied, "It would be better to destroy the North's nuclear weapons first than to be struck by them, given that that would lead to a war in any case."
Some Member Nations of UNSC Accountable for Their Becoming Marionette of U.S.
Pyongyang, February 6 (KCNA) -- The U.S. and its allies are keeping utterly mum about Japan's launch of a spy satellite though they made much fuss about the DPRK's satellite launch for peaceful purposes. Rodong Sinmun Wednesday says in a bylined commentary in this regard: Japan's spy satellite launch poses a serious problem. Japan is a war criminal state and, at the same time, it is a dangerous state as it gives spurs to its militarization while denying its past crimes, defying the demand of the international community. Japan is regarded as a target of vigilance in the international community because of its moral vulgarity and shamefulness. [Satellite] [Double standards] [UNUS]
N.Korean Nuke Test 'Likely in Mid-February'
Pundits cooling their heels as North Korea gears up to conduct another nuclear test now speculate that the test is likely to take place in the middle of the month. The window for the test is limited now that preparations appear complete, due to the short lifespan of measuring devices. Including a super-high-speed camera, a thermal imaging camera, a thermometer and a barometer, they are usually installed in and outside an underground test tunnel. But these state-of-the-art devices are susceptible to humidity and moisture. An expert with a South Korean government-funded think tank said, "Generally speaking, you should conduct a nuclear test within two weeks if you have installed measuring devices in an underground test tunnel." [Test]
N.Korean Nuclear Test Keeps Outside World Guessing
Desultory speculation continued Monday as the world waited with more or less bated breath to see whether North Korea is going to conduct another nuclear test. One Defense Ministry official claimed Seoul is discussing a possible military response with Washington. He did not go into detail but said "everything" is on the table. Military experts were reduced to extrapolating information from the little they know about the North's previous nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009.
N.Korea 'Admits Missile Connection' in Rocket Launch
North Korea internally describes the space rocket it launched in December as a long-range ballistic missile called Hwasong-13, the Asahi Shimbun reported Sunday. The Japanese daily said that the North put a missile of that name on display at a new arms and rocket exhibition hall, which opened in April last year in Pyongyang. The paper cited sources as saying that an exhibition guide described the rocket as being 2.4 m in diameter and 26 m long, with the upper stage removed because of the low ceiling. That is more or less the same size as the rocket launched in December last year.
The anatomy of North Korea’s nuclear test tunnels released for the first time
Posted on : Feb.5,2013 15:55 KSTModified on : Feb.5,2013 16:33 KST The Ministry of National Defense diagram believed to show the composure of the test area By Kim Kyu-won, staff reporter The structure of the tunnels used for North Korea’s nuclear tests has come to light for the first time. The horizontal tunnels include nine doors and ten corners to absorb the shock of the blast. On Feb. 4, the Ministry of National Defense released a two-dimensional diagram of what is believed to be the tunnel used in North Korea’s second nuclear test in May 2009. The plan was based on an analysis by South Korean and US nuclear experts of a nuclear testing diagram that appeared in part two of “Naega Bon Nara (The Country I Saw),” a film broadcast on Korean Central Television on Sept. 8, 2010. [Test
North Korea may detonate H-bomb
By Kang Seung-woo, Chung Min-uck North Korea may try to detonate a hydrogen bomb, a Defense Ministry official said Monday. “Pyongyang just might make such an attempt,” he said on condition of anonymity. “Whether it is capable of building a workable hydrogen bomb is another matter.” The colloquially named hydrogen bomb, or H-bomb is a thermonuclear weapon that uses the energy generated by a fission bomb to initiate nuclear fusion, using hydrogen as a trigger, and is far more sophisticated than atomic bombs based purely on fission.
Is N.Korea Planning Simultaneous Nuke Tests?
North Korea has virtually finished preparations for nuclear tests in two tunnels at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in North Hamgyong Province, observers believe. A South Korean government source said analysis of satellite images showed brisk activity of support vehicles and personnel at a tunnel on the southern side of the test site, and on Saturday the area was cleaned and personnel left. Intelligence agencies suspect that this means a nuclear test is imminent. Preparations at a tunnel on the western side of the site were apparently completed earlier. The government here is now watching for the possibility of two separate nuclear tests either simultaneously or in quick succession. "There is a chance that the southern tunnel is a decoy, but we aren't ruling out that the regime will conduct nuclear tests simultaneously at both tunnels," a military source said. The source said it might help North Korea to produce smaller nuclear warheads that could be mounted on missiles if it tests a couple of different devices at the same time. In 1998, Pakistan conducted eight nuclear tests over two days, which allowed it to accelerate the miniaturization of nuclear weapons. englishnews@chosun.com / Feb. 04, 2013 09:11 KST [Test]
North Korea threatens US for what it calls double standards over rocket launches by 2 Koreas
Korea Aerospace Research Institute/Associated Press - In this photo released by Korea Aerospace Research Institute, South Korea’s rocket lifts off from its launch pad at the Naro Space Center in Goheung, South Korea, Wednesday, Jan. 30, 2013. South Korea says it has successfully launched a satellite into orbit from its own soil for the first time. Wednesday’s high-stakes launch comes just weeks after archrival North Korea successfully launched its own satellite to the surprise of the world. by Associated Press, Published: February 2 SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea is threatening to retaliate for what it calls U.S. double standards over recent rocket launches by Pyongyang and U.S. ally Seoul. A North Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman did not elaborate on what that might entail in his comments Saturday to the official Korean Central News Agency. But Pyongyang has recently threatened to conduct its third nuclear test in response to what it calls U.S. hostility. Washington says Seoul’s rocket launch Wednesday had no military intent while Pyongyang’s in December was a test of banned ballistic missile technology. The U.N. Security Council has imposed new sanctions on Pyongyang for its launch. Pyongyang says it should be allowed to launch satellites for peaceful purposes. Both Koreas say their satellites are working properly. U.S. experts say Pyongyang’s satellite is apparently malfunctioning. [Satellite] [Double standards]
Why It Matters: A uranium nuclear test by North Korea would be a new, worrying development
By Associated Press, Published: February 1 SEOUL, South Korea — As North Korea warns that it plans its third nuclear test since 2006, outside governments and analysts are trying to determine a crucial question: Just what will Pyongyang’s scientists explode? The last two tests are believed to have been of plutonium devices, but the next logical step for Pyongyang’s ambitious nuclear program could be to conduct a highly enriched uranium explosion. That would be a major accomplishment for North Korea — and a worrying development that would raise already high stakes for the United States and its allies. [test] [Uranium]
U.S. Nuclear Marketers Visited Saudi Arabia, As Trade Talks Under Way
Feb. 1, 2013 By Elaine M. Grossman Global Security Newswire Saudi King Abdullah, shown in May 2012, has reportedly warned that his nation would seek nuclear weapons if Iran acquired an atomic arsenal. Such statements have worried U.S. lawmakers as the Obama administration presses forward on a possible nuclear trade pact with Riyadh (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar).Saudi King Abdullah, shown in May 2012, has reportedly warned that his nation would seek nuclear weapons if Iran acquired an atomic arsenal. Such statements have worried U.S. lawmakers as the Obama administration presses forward on a possible nuclear trade pact with Riyadh (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar). WASHINGTON -- A U.S. nuclear industry delegation traveled to Saudi Arabia in November, as Washington and Riyadh launched negotiations toward sealing a controversial atomic trade agreement, according to government and business officials. An industry official on Wednesday described the Saudi trade mission as “a first-of-a-kind, industry-led” trip. It follows a 2012 announcement by the Persian Gulf nation that it intends to build 16 reactors by 2030. “On the nuclear side, that represents an investment of approximately $112 billion that they’re planning to make to bring those plants to reality,” the energy marketing representative said at a Nuclear Energy Institute forum on atomic fuel. Through a spokesman, the industry official requested anonymity in order to offer candid comments about the trade mission at the Wednesday symposium. The Nuclear Energy Institute is the U.S. atomic industry’s lobbying arm and was a “supporting partner” for the business delegation’s visit, the official said. [Nuclear energy] [Double standards]
Re-entry Vehicles and Rhetoric in Pyongyang
Nautilus Peace and Security (NAPSNet) After 5 test firings (failures in 1998, 2006, 2009, 2012, and success, December 12, 2012) we know that DPRK long range rockets have ~20% chance of success, every 3 years. We know it has not mastered satellite technology. We know it has tested a nuclear warhead twice, once successfully, giving it a roughly 50% warhead reliability. What past and the most recent launches do not tell us is whether the DPRK has built re-entry vehicles (RVs) that will work on long-range rockets. The DPRK has not tested RVs on its long-range rockets to date, or if it did, the rocket failed before the RVs deployed. In the Iran-Iraq War of the Cities, scores of North Korean intermediate range missiles were fired. Although urban populations were terrorized, these missiles were unreliable and inaccurate. RVs on the DPRK’s shorter and medium-range rockets work at much lower velocities and re-entry angles. RV technology for long range missiles is an extremely challenging field. It took the United States and others many years of research and development to overcome challenges posed by extreme temperature, pressure, atmospheric buffeting, ablation etc so that a RV could deliver its warhead without burning up. Admittedly, much of the fundamental information and even early test data of heat shields is in the public domain. Some technical obstacles can be circumvented either by avoiding known or surmised dead-ends, or by importing knowledgeable technicians. [Satellite] [Missile]
Korea faces bumpy road to be space power
Nation still lacks key technology to launch rocket independently By Cho Mu-hyun South Korea faces a bumpy road ahead to be a space power despite the successful launch of a locally assembled rocket that gave legitimate reasons for the parties involved to celebrate. No longer feeling the pressure of the two previous failures, government officials are speaking of bringing forward the launch of the planned Korea Space Launch Vehicle-2 (KSLV-2), a bigger and more powerful successor to KSLV-1, also known as Naro.
Korean Satellite Communicates from Orbit
Korea's Naro satellite is successfully orbiting the earth and sending signals back to a series of relay stations along its course. The Ministry of Education, Science and Technology on Thursday said the Naro satellite flew over Korean air space and succeeded in communicating with the satellite research center at the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology between 3:28 a.m. and 3:42 a.m. [Satellite]
2 Koreas poles apart in motives
The left photo shows the Naro space rocket blasting off from Naro Space Center in South Jeolla Province, Wednesday. The right photo taken by North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency on Dec. 12, 2012 is of the Unha-3 rocket lifting off from a launch pad in Cholsan County, North Pyongan Province, North Korea. / Yonhap By Kim Young-jin With the successful launch of the Naro rocket, South Korea has gone head-to-head with North Korea, which recently succeeded in sending a payload into orbit. Analysts and officials, however, said Thursday that the two were starkly different. South Korea became the 11th nation to send a rocket into space, Wednesday, less than two months after the North. Both released relatively small satellites into orbit. Other similarities are few, however, as Seoul secured contact with its satellite early Thursday, while many are skeptical that the North was able to do the same. The major contrast is that the South followed international norms that safeguard against weapons development and proliferation, measures that the North has defied. Multistage rocket technology can be used for intercontinental missiles. “You know our view that there is no basis for comparing the behavior of the ROK in space with the behavior of the DPRK,” State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said at a press briefing, using the acronyms for the South and North, respectively. [Satellite] [Comparison]
Korea Launches Space Rocket
The rocket blasts off from the Naro Space Center in Goheung, South Jeolla Province on Wednesday. /Courtesy of the Korea Aerospace Research Institute The rocket blasts off from the Naro Space Center in Goheung, South Jeolla Province on Wednesday. /Courtesy of the Korea Aerospace Research Institute Korea succeeded in launching its first homegrown rocket and placing a satellite into orbit on Wednesday. The rocket, dubbed Naro, lifted off from the Naro Space Center in Goheung, South Jeolla Province at 4 p.m. on Wednesday carrying a 100 kg research satellite and put it into orbit at an altitude of 302 km, Education, Science and Technology Minister Lee Ju-ho told reporters an hour after liftoff. "Thanks to the successful launch of Naro, we are now one step closer to becoming a space power," Lee said. Previous attempts in 2009 and 2010 failed, and the third and final attempt was been postponed twice due to technical glitches. The satellite made contact with a relay station in Norway for 10 minutes at 5:26 p.m., 86 minutes after liftoff. It also successfully sent a signal to a relay station at the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology in Daejeon around 3:27 a.m. early Thursday. But regardless of the success of the mission, the Naro rocket will no longer be used in Korea’s space program, because the government has already embarked on a project to develop by 2021 a wholly indigenous, three-stage rocket using liquid fuel. The Naro was built jointly with Russia, with Korea building the second-stage of the rocket and its solid-fuel motor and payload and Russia supplying the first stage and liquid-fueled engine. englishnews@chosun.com / Jan. 31, 2013 09:00 KST [Satellite]
Successful Rocket Launch Is the 1st Step on a Long Road
South Korea succeeded in launching its first rocket on Wednesday afternoon which placed a satellite into orbit at an altitude of 300 km just nine minutes after liftoff. It was the fruit of 11 years of efforts and two failed attempts at launching the rocket into space. It restored South Koreans' pride a little after North Korea beat it in the space race late last year. Certainly staff at the Korea Aerospace Research Institute and other scientists and engineers involved with the Naro launch must have felt immense pride and joy. [Satellite] [Comparison]
Six-Party Talks could still go ahead
China Daily, January 31, 2013 Although Pyongyang claimed to end the Six-Party Talks after the latest UN resolution, experts said there is still the possibility of dialogue to resolve issues on the Korean Peninsula, and urged all parties to respect the concerns of others. Pyongyang didn't refuse all communication, so the door of negotiations is not closed, said Alexander Zhebin, head of the Centre for Korean Studies at the Russian Institute of the Far East. Zhebin made his comments at a video meeting held by the Russian Information Agency Novosti on Jan 29. Vladimir Evseev, director of the Center for Social and Political Research in Russia, echoed Zhebin's statements, saying the Democratic People's Republic of Korea is still interested in dialogue, especially that focusing on its economic development.
How Korean Is Korea's Space Program?
The Naro lifts off from its launch pad at the Naro Space Center in Goheung, South Jeolla Province on Wednesday. The Naro lifts off from its launch pad at the Naro Space Center in Goheung, South Jeolla Province on Wednesday. Korea on Wednesday finally succeeded in launching the Naro space rocket on the third attempt. When all launch delays are included, it was the 11th attempt that made the difference. The next challenge is to place a 1.5-ton commercial satellite into orbit. But some experts say the future is a return to the drawing board since Korea relied on Russian technology for the essential liquid-fueled, first-stage booster of the Naro. Korea built the second stage and its solid-fueled engine. The first-stage booster is the same one used in Russia's next-generation Angara rocket, prompting some pundits to say the launch of the Naro was practically a test launch of the Angara. Seoul started to pursue the rocket development program on its own in the early 1990s but turned to Russia for help in 1998 when Pyongyang launched a missile that flew over Japan and landed in the Pacific. The government wanted to achieve its goal as early as possible but failed to meet the 2005 deadline.
N.Korea 'Subverting Sanctions to Prepare for Nuke Test'
North Korea has set up dozens of bank accounts under false names abroad to prepare for reprisals after a future nuclear test, the presidential secretary for foreign affairs and national security claimed Wednesday. Chun Young-woo made the claim at a two-day conference at the Plaza Hotel in Seoul hosted by the Heritage Foundation, Hansun Foundation for Freedom and Happiness and the Chosun Ilbo. Chun said North Korea cunningly found loopholes in sanctions imposed by the international community and set up the false-name accounts immediately after it launched a rocket in December last year. He called for sanctions to be strengthened "to the level of sanctions against Iran." Chun later told the Chosun Ilbo, "The accounts under false names were opened in China. North Korea expected sanctions from the UN Security Council and set up these accounts beforehand, and then transferred the money from other accounts. This tells us that it prepared for a nuclear test immediately after the launch of the rocket at the end of last year." englishnews@chosun.com / Jan. 31, 2013 13:03 KST [Sanctions]
How N.Korea Won the Rocket Race with the South
North Korea became the 10th country to succeed in putting a satellite into orbit late last year after over a decade of strenuous efforts, during which the South hovered between developing its own rocket and importing technology and parts. Pyongyang imported liquid-fueled ballistic missiles from China and Egypt in 1975 and began to fire its own ballistic missiles in 1984 by reverse-engineering the imports. In 1998 the North secured core technologies for multi-stage rockets by firing a three-stage missile with a range of 2,500 km. Despite a series of failures since then, it continued to develop successors to the missile. Prof. Jang Young-kun at Korea Aerospace University said the first and second stages of the latest rocket are the same as those as in 1998. The South followed a similar path at the initial stage. In 1978, it succeeded in firing a missile with a range of 150 km, a copy of the U.S.' solid-fueled Nike-Hercules. But under an agreement with the U.S. that prevented it from using solid fuel engines on a space rocket that exceeds 1 million pounds in weight, Seoul shifted its attention to Russian rockets using liquid fuel. As a result, it wasted over a decade and found itself outpaced by the impoverished North. englishnews@chosun.com / Jan. 31, 2013 12:38 KST [Satellite] [Tribute]
Naro launch is blazing success!
The sequence of photos shows the Korea Space Launch Vehicle 1, popularly called Naro, blasting off from the launch pad at the Naro Space Center in South Jeolla Province, and soaring through midair on its way to a successful launch, redeeming the country after consecutive failures in 2009 and 2010. Officials at the Korea Aerospace Research Institute confirmed minutes later that the rocket had successfully put its payload satellite into orbit. / Yonhap Satellite payload in orbit By Cho Mu-hyun GOHEUNG, South Jeolla Province ? South Korea was third time lucky in its aspirations to join the Asian space race Wednesday after successfully launching a two-stage rocket from its Naro Space Center on the country’s southwestern coast. Korea is the 11th country joining an elite group of nations capable of sending rockets into space to launch satellites. Such an achievement comes nearly 10 years after Asia’s fourth largest economy began seeking its own capability to place a satellite into orbit.

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JANUARY 2013

After Kim Jong Un Orders a Nuclear Test: Possible Key Installations and Equipment Identified at North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Facility
By 38 North A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu. Summary Based on recent satellite imagery of the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Facility, 38 North has identified installations that may play a critical role in the conduct of a North Korean nuclear detonation. One facility is a command and control bunker located approximately 150 meters from the possible test tunnel entrance that, in addition to providing shelter for all personnel in the area, could contain equipment for controlling the nuclear device, managing instruments for monitoring test data and communicating with higher authorities. In addition, a Russian radio relay system appears to be nearby and may be part of a communications system with Pyongyang. If the command is given to move forward with a nuclear test, while no outside observer knows for sure the train of events that might be set in motion, based on what we do know about practices in other countries that have conducted such explosions, personnel at the site might take the following steps: [Test]
UN Vows Action Against N.Korea in Case of Nuke Test
The UN Security Council will adopt a fresh resolution and even tougher sanctions if the renegade country goes ahead with another nuclear test, a senior South Korean government official said Tuesday. "If the North should carry out a third nuclear test despite the UN resolution, the UN will discuss whether to adopt an additional resolution based on Chapter 7, which stipulates the toughest measures in the UN Charter," the official added. Chapter 7 of the UN Charter is concerned with "action with respect to threats to the peace, breaches of the peace, and acts of aggression." The UNSC must "decide what measures shall be taken in accordance with Articles 41 [economic sanctions] and 42 [military sanctions], to maintain or restore international peace and security." Chapter 7 was mentioned when the UNSC adopted Resolution 1718 against the North after its first nuclear test in October 2006. South Korea, which assumes the rotating UNSC presidency next month, is considering ways to work out the toughest resolution, including hard-line financial sanctions. [UNUS] [Test]
Naro space rocket liftoffs successfully
South Korea's space rocket blasted off successfully Wednesday from the Naro Space Center on the country's southern coast. The Korea Space Launch Vehicle-1 (KSLV-1), also known as Naro, lifted off at 4 p.m. No apparent problems have been observed since its takeoff from the launch site, located 480 kilometers south of Seoul. The 170-ton thrust space rocket is designed to reach its target orbit in 9 minutes following its takeoff. Whether the launch was successful will initially be determined approximately 140 minutes after the launch when the rocket's payload, Science and Technology Satellite-2C, transmits its first beacon signal. A final judgment will be available around 5 a.m. Thursday (local time) when the satellite makes its first contact with the country's ground station at the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology in Daejeon, 160 kilometers south of Seoul. Wednesday's launch marked Seoul's third attempt to join the global space club after its two earlier attempts in 2009 and 2010 ended in failures. [Satellite]
South Korea launches satellite into space weeks after archrival North Korea accomplished feat
By Associated Press, Updated: Wednesday, January 30, 8:26 PM SEOUL, South Korea — South Korea says it has successfully launched a satellite into orbit from its own soil for the first time. Wednesday’s high-stakes launch comes just weeks after archrival North Korea successfully launched its own satellite to the surprise of the world. South Korean liftoffs in 2009 and 2010 failed. Two more recent launch attempts were aborted at the last minute because of technical problems. Wednesday’s attempt came amid increased tension on the Korean Peninsula over North Korea’s threat to explode its third nuclear device. Pyongyang is angry over tough new international sanctions over the Dec. 12 long-range rocket launch that delivered its satellite. [Satellite] [Media]
U.S., China Test Interceptor Missiles After N.Korean Threat
The U.S. and China have carried out interceptor missile tests and Japan has launched a reconnaissance satellite, possibly with an eye on North Korea's recent threats of further provocations and recent rocket launch. The U.S. Defense Department successfully test-launched a missile interceptor rocket from the central Californian coast, a press release said Sunday. It launched a three-stage ground-based interceptor from Vandenberg Air Force Base the previous afternoon. The interceptor reached outer space. "After separating from the booster, the Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle executed a variety of pre-planned maneuvers to collect performance data in space," the press release added. "Data from this flight test will be used to evaluate… system performance in a flight environment." [Threat] [Media]
Japan Launches Spy Satellite
An H2-A rocket carrying two satellites lifts off from its launch pad at Tanegashima Space Center, southwestern Japan on Sunday. /Kyodo-Newsis An H2-A rocket carrying two satellites lifts off from its launch pad at Tanegashima Space Center, southwestern Japan on Sunday. /Kyodo-Newsis Japan has launched a new spy satellite amid growing international worries that North Korea could conduct another nuclear test. The radar satellite was put into orbit from Tanegashima Space Center in Kagoshima Prefecture in southern Japan and is capable of taking photograph of any location on earth as it rotates in geosynchronous orbit. It supplements two other Japanese satellites already in orbit.
Neighboring militaries preparing for North Korean threat
Posted on : Jan.29,2013 15:36 KSTModified on : Jan.29,2013 15:55 KST China, Japan and the US expanding missile interceptor technology as tensions rise in Northeast Asia By Park Hyun, Park Min-hee and Jeong Nam-ku, Washington, Beijing and Tokyo correspondents A GBI interceptor missile is launched by the US Defense Department at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, Jan. 27. The missiles are capable of intercepting intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) aimed at the continental US while still outside the atmosphere. (US Defense Department photo) With North Korea declaring its intention to push ahead with a third nuclear test following the United Nations Security Council resolution on its launch of a long-range rocket, it seems hardly a coincidence that the US, China, and Japan have launched their own interceptor missiles and spy satellites. As the intensity of the North Korean nuclear crisis soars and the strategic competition between the US and China, and between China and Japan, heats up in the Asia-Pacific region, military tensions are on the rise in Northeast Asia. [Satellite] [Hysteria] [Threat]
Iran’s space monkey returns to Earth safely
TEHRAN – Iran announced on Monday that it had successfully sent a monkey into space and brought it back to Earth safely. Iran is now among a handful of countries that are able to launch living creatures into space. The monkey was launched into space aboard the domestically manufactured Pishgam (Pioneer) space rocket. Scientists at the Iranian Space Agency, in cooperation with experts at the Aerospace Industries Organization of the Defense Ministry, are running the project to send living creatures into space. According to the reports, the space rocket successfully went through the planned stages, reached the designated speed, acceleration, and altitude, and returned to Earth. Reaching an altitude of more than 120 kilometers, sending a living creature whose physiology is similar to a human being’s physiology into space, the indigenization of the process of designing, manufacturing, and launching a space capsule, and bringing a living creature back to Earth safely were some of the goals that were attained in the Pishgam space rocket’s flight. The successful launch of a monkey into space represents a significant scientific development for Iran in the field of aerospace technology.
Kim Jong-un Mutters Dark Threats
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in a meeting with a new panel of top security officials and diplomats pledged "substantial and high-profile state measures," apparently in response to fresh UN sanctions. The official KCNA news agency on Sunday quoted Kim as uttering the obscure threat "in view of the prevailing situation," which is being read as a reference to the latest UN Security Resolution condemning the North's rocket launch and intensifying sanctions.
China carries out missile interception test
China.org.cn, January 28, 2013 China again carried out a land-based mid-course missile interception test within its territory Sunday. China again carried out a land-based mid-course missile interception test within its territory Sunday. China again carried out a land-based mid-course missile interception test within its territory Sunday. [Xinhua photo] Xinhua learned the news from the Information Bureau of China's Defense Ministry. "The test has reached the preset goal," an official with the bureau said. "The test is defensive in nature and targets no other country," he said. It has been the second time that China announced such kind of missile test. A similar anti-missile interception test was successfully conducted on January 11, 2010. Although no other detailed information about the test was released from the military authorities, weapon system experts said such test could build shield for China's air defense by intercepting incoming warheads such as ballistic missiles in space. [Missile defense]
Japan launches intelligence-gathering satellite
Xinhua, January 28, 2013 Japan launched Sunday an intelligence-gathering satellite from a rocket launch site in the southern Japanese prefecture of Kagoshima, local press reported. A H-2A rocket carrying an information gathering radar satellite blasts off from the launching pad at Tanegashima Space Center on the Japanese southwestern island of Tanegashima, about 1,000km (621 miles) southwest of Tokyo, in this photo taken by Kyodo on January 27, 2013. [Photo: Agencies] The launch took place as planned at 1:40 pm local time at Tanegashima Space Center on Tanegashima Island of the prefecture, and the satellite has successfully gone into orbit around the earth, according to the country's public broadcaster Nippon Hoso Kyokai (NHK). Sunday's event also marked the 16th consecutive successful liftoff of an H-2A rocket. [Satellite]
India testfires underwater ballistic missile
Xinhua, January 28, 2013 India Sunday successfully testfired its first nuclear capable, underwater ballistic missile off the coast of the southern state of Andhra Pradesh, a top defense official has said. In a significant development of its military potential, India Sunday successfully tested a medium-range ballistic missile launched from underwater. [Photo: Agencies] The missile K-5 (code named B05) was testfired off the Visakhapatnam coast for its full range of 700 km and the mission met all its objectives, scientific advisor to India Defence Minister, V.K. Saraswat, was quoted by the local media as saying. With the testfiring, the missile completed its developmental trials. Soon, the process of integrating K-15 missile with INS Arihant, the indigenously built nuclear submarine, will begin. India is the fifth country to have such a missile, after the U. S., Russia, France and China.
Kim Jong-un pledges strong response to UN sanctions
Posted on : Jan.28,2013 15:00 KST North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in an image released by the KCNA on Jan. 27. The location and participants of the meeting were not disclosed. (KCNA/Yonhap News) Official statement of condemnation are made through a range of NK state bodies By Park Byong-su, staff reporter Kim Jong-un announced his “firm resolution to take substantial and high-profile state-level measures” in response to the United Nations Security Council’s expanded sanctions against North Korea, the country’s Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported on Jan. 26. Now observers are saying the North Korean leader may have given his approval for another nuclear test to be held in the near future. [Sanctions] [Response]
Head-Scratching Over N.Korea's 'High-Level' Nuclear Test
North Korea on Thursday threatened a "high-level" nuclear test, triggering frenzied speculation among pundits what that may mean. North Korea's nuclear test back in 2006 involved a bomb of less than 1 kt and was considered a failure, but in the second test in 2009, the bomb was between 2 and 6 kt. One government source here said, "The 'high-level nuclear test' North Korea is talking about could be aimed at measuring the power of a bomb, testing miniaturized lighter warheads, or detonating multiple bombs." In order for its nuclear arms to be viable, the North needs to build a warhead measuring just 88 cm in diameter and weighing less than a ton. South Korean and U.S. officials had believed the North's nuclear bombs weighed between two to three tons, which is too heavy to mount on a missile.
Security Council Condemns Use of Ballistic Missile Technology in Launch by Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, in Resolution 2087 (2013)
Says Act Violated United Nations Sanctions, Expresses Determination To Take ‘Significant Action’ in Event Country Proceeds with Further Launch The Security Council, condemning the launch by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea on 12 December 2012, which used ballistic missile technology in violation of the sanctions imposed on it, today demanded that the country not proceed with any further such activities and expressed its “determination to take significant action” in the event it did so. In that connection, the Council demanded, through the unanimous adoption of resolution 2087 (2013), immediate compliance by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea with its obligations under resolutions 1718 (2006) and 1874 (2009), including that it abandon all nuclear weapons and nuclear programmes completely, verifiably and irreversibly. It deplored the country’s violations of the measures imposed on it in 2006, and strengthened in 2009, including the use of bulk cash to evade sanctions, and underscored its concern over the supply, sale or transfer to or from that country or through States’ territories of any item that could contribute to the activities banned by those resolutions. [Satellite] [UNUS]
N.Korea Threatens Fresh Nuclear Test
North Korea on Thursday seized its brief moment in the international spotlight with threats to conduct a fresh nuclear test and target its "sworn enemy," the U.S. "We are not disguising the fact that the various satellites and long-range rockets we will launch, as well as the high-level nuclear test we will carry out, are targeted at the United States, the sworn enemy of our people," the North's National Defense Commission said in a statement on Thursday. "Accounts with the U.S. need to be settled with force, not with words." The statement carried by the official KCNA news agency came in response to Wednesday's UN Security Council resolution that condemns last month's rocket launch and intensifies sanctions against the renegade country.
Final Rocket Launch Date Confirmed
Korea will make a third and final attempt to launch its homegrown space rocket Naro on Jan. 30, the Ministry of Education, Science and Technology has confirmed. The window for the launch will be between 3:55 p.m. and 7:30 p.m. The exact time will be announced at 1:30 p.m. on the day. The Korea Meteorological Administration forecast no snow or rain in the area near the Naro Space Center in Goheung, South Jeolla Province on the day of launch. A final rehearsal for the launch will take place on Jan. 29 after the rocket is moved to the launch pad the previous day. [Satellite]
Korean Peninsula's Denuclearization Becomes Impossible
Pyongyang, January 25 (KCNA) -- The January 23 statement, released by the Foreign Ministry of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea in response to the "resolution" adopted by the UN Security Council at the initiative of the United States, said the DPRK drew a final conclusion that the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is impossible. This has made invalid the September 19 Joint Statement, which was adopted at the six-party talks on the principle of respect for sovereignty and equality, signaling an end to the discussion on the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. It is entirely attributable to the U.S. hostile policy towards the DPRK, which has been pursued before the nuclear issue in the Korean Peninsula came up. [JS050919]
DPRK NDC Issues Statement Refuting UNSC Resolution
Pyongyang, January 24 (KCNA) -- The National Defence Commission (NDC) of the DPRK issued a statement on Thursday. It said: Our successful launch of satellite Kwangmyongsong 3-2 was a great jubilee in the history of the nation as it placed the nation's dignity and honor on the highest plane and a spectacular success made in the efforts to develop space for peaceful purposes recognized by the world. The world people who love justice and value conscience unanimously rejoice as their own over the signal success made by our country, not a big one, by its own efforts. Even space institutions of a hostile country accustomed to have repugnancy towards others could not but recognize the DPRK's successful satellite launch for peaceful purposes, from a low-profile stance. [UNUS] [Satellite]
DPRK NDC Vows to Launch All-Out Action to Defend Sovereignty of Country
Pyongyang, January 24 (KCNA) -- The National Defence Commission (NDC) of the DPRK in a statement Thursday solemnly declared its stand as follows as regards the unreasonable resolution that was adopted by the UN Security Council taking issue with the DPRK over its successful launch of satellite Kwangmyongsong 3-2: 1. We flatly reject all the illegal resolutions on the DPRK adopted by the UN Security Council. Along with the nationwide efforts to defend the sovereignty, the DPRK will continue launching peaceful satellites to outer space one after another. 2. As the U.S. hostile policy toward the DPRK has entered more dangerous phase, overall efforts should be directed to denuclearizing big powers including the U.S. rather than the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. [UNUS] [Satellite]
Korean Peninsula's Denuclearization Becomes Impossible
Pyongyang, January 25 (KCNA) -- The January 23 statement, released by the Foreign Ministry of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea in response to the "resolution" adopted by the UN Security Council at the initiative of the United States, said the DPRK drew a final conclusion that the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is impossible. This has made invalid the September 19 Joint Statement, which was adopted at the six-party talks on the principle of respect for sovereignty and equality, signaling an end to the discussion on the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. It is entirely attributable to the U.S. hostile policy towards the DPRK, which has been pursued before the nuclear issue in the Korean Peninsula came up. [JS050919]
DPRK NDC Issues Statement Refuting UNSC Resolution
Pyongyang, January 24 (KCNA) -- The National Defence Commission (NDC) of the DPRK issued a statement on Thursday. It said: Our successful launch of satellite Kwangmyongsong 3-2 was a great jubilee in the history of the nation as it placed the nation's dignity and honor on the highest plane and a spectacular success made in the efforts to develop space for peaceful purposes recognized by the world. The world people who love justice and value conscience unanimously rejoice as their own over the signal success made by our country, not a big one, by its own efforts. Even space institutions of a hostile country accustomed to have repugnancy towards others could not but recognize the DPRK's successful satellite launch for peaceful purposes, from a low-profile stance. [UNUS] [Satellite]
DPRK NDC Vows to Launch All-Out Action to Defend Sovereignty of Country
Pyongyang, January 24 (KCNA) -- The National Defence Commission (NDC) of the DPRK in a statement Thursday solemnly declared its stand as follows as regards the unreasonable resolution that was adopted by the UN Security Council taking issue with the DPRK over its successful launch of satellite Kwangmyongsong 3-2: 1. We flatly reject all the illegal resolutions on the DPRK adopted by the UN Security Council. Along with the nationwide efforts to defend the sovereignty, the DPRK will continue launching peaceful satellites to outer space one after another. 2. As the U.S. hostile policy toward the DPRK has entered more dangerous phase, overall efforts should be directed to denuclearizing big powers including the U.S. rather than the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. [UNUS] [Satellite]
Update on Preparations for a Possible Third Nuclear Test at Punggye-ri: Is a Detonation Imminent?
By 38 North A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu. Summary North Korea’s public pronouncements in reaction to a United Nations Security Council Resolution tightening sanctions against Pyongyang have heightened speculation that a nuclear detonation at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Facility is imminent. Analysis of new satellite imagery from January 23, 2013 and previous images dating back a month reveal that the site appears to be at a continued state of readiness that would allow the North to move forward with a test in a few weeks or less once the leadership in Pyongyang gives the order. Snowfall and subsequent clearing operations as well as tracks in the snow reveal ongoing activity at buildings and on roadways near the possible test tunnel. A photo from January 4 identifies a group of personnel, possibly troops or security guards, in formation in the yard of the administrative area near the test tunnel entrance, perhaps to greet visiting officials or for some other more routine purpose. Imagery from December 24 identifies a new pile of material located near the command bunker in the same area. The purpose of this material remains unclear and there are a variety of possible explanations. One is that it is intended for stemming or sealing the tunnel in preparation for a detonation. In a photo from January 23, the size of the pile appears to have diminished. If the material is intended for stemming, that could indicate such an operation may be underway in preparation for a detonation. [Test]
North Korean leader vows to take strong action in sign nuclear test may be imminent
By Associated Press, Updated: Sunday, January 27, 7:43 PM SEOUL, South Korea — North Korean leader Kim Jong Un convened top security and foreign affairs officials and ordered them to take “substantial and high-profile important state measures,” state media said Sunday, indicating that he plans to push forward with a threat to explode a nuclear device in defiance of the United Nations. The meeting of top officials led by Kim makes clear that he backs Pyongyang’s defiant stance in protest of U.N. Security Council punishment for a December rocket launch. The dispatch in the official Korean Central News Agency did not say when the meeting took place. Last week, the Security Council condemned North Korea’s Dec. 12 launch of a long-range rocket as a violation of a ban against nuclear and missile activity. The council, including North Korea ally China, punished Pyongyang with more sanctions and ordered the regime to refrain from a nuclear test — or face “significant action.” North Korea responded by rejecting the resolution and maintaining its right to launch a satellite into orbit as part of a peaceful civilian space program. [Satellite]
What's the threat? North Korean rhetoric, reality
9:31 AM Saturday Jan 26, 2013 According to its official statements, North Korea is ready to go to the brink. But how serious are Pyongyang's threats? This week, new UN sanctions punishing the North's successful December rocket launch have elicited a furious response from Pyongyang: strong hints that a third nuclear test is coming, along with bigger and better long-range missiles; "all-out action" against its "sworn enemy," the United States; and on Friday, a threat of "strong physical countermeasures" against South Korea if Seoul participates in the sanctions. [Response] [Media]
North Korea steps up its threats in response to expanded sanctions
Posted on : Jan.24,2013 15:07 KST North Korean leader Kim Jong-un talks to talks to officials and scientists at the missile launch facility in Cholsan County, North Pyongan province in an image released on Jan. 15 by the Korea Central News Agency. KCNA did not state when the photo was taken. (Reuters/Yonhap News) Pyongyang declares an end to the six-party talks, but hope for peace dialogue with the US By Kang Tae-ho, senior staff writer The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 2087, spearheaded by the US, and the statement made by North Korea’s Foreign Ministry on Jan. 23 in response to the resolution warn of a full-scale confrontation based on an eye-for-an-eye rivalry and the logic of escalating reprisals.
DPRK plans nuclear test, targetting US
China.org.cn, January 24, 2013 The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) Thursday announced its plans for a new nuclear test and more rocket launches targetting its "sworn enemy" of the United States. In a statement carried by the KCNA news agency, the National Defense Commission said that in a new phase of the anti-U.S. struggle, the DPRK does not hide its plans to continue launching "a variety of satellites and long-range rockets", and carry out a "higher level" nuclear test targetted at the U.S., "the sworn enemy of the Korean people." The commission also criticized the resolution adopted Tuesday by the UN Security Council to condemn the country's recent satellite launch, saying the six-party talks and the September 19 joint statement "will no longer exist." [Satellite] [UNUS] [Media] [Heading] [Chinese IR]
N.Korea Lashes Out After UN Resolution
North Korea on Wednesday vowed to boost its nuclear arsenal, evidently irked by the UN Security Council's unanimous adoption of more sanctions against the renegade country. "We will take measures to boost and strengthen our defensive military power including nuclear deterrence," the North Korean Foreign Ministry said according to the official KCNA news agency. [Satellite] [UNUS]
North Korea steps up its threats in response to expanded sanctions
Posted on : Jan.24,2013 15:07 KST Pyongyang declares an end to the six-party talks, but hope for peace dialogue with the US By Kang Tae-ho, senior staff writer The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 2087, spearheaded by the US, and the statement made by North Korea’s Foreign Ministry on Jan. 23 in response to the resolution warn of a full-scale confrontation based on an eye-for-an-eye rivalry and the logic of escalating reprisals. The sanctions, which come in response to North Korea’s launch of the Unha-3 rocket on Dec. 12, 2012, are significant in two regards. First, their format is not a presidential statement but a resolution, and second, the content of the resolution expands existing sanctions. Furthermore, the resolution includes a warning that the UNSC will take “significant action” if North Korea makes any further provocations.
DPRK FM Refutes UNSC's "Resolution" Pulling up DPRK over Its Satellite Launch
Pyongyang, January 23 (KCNA) -- The DPRK Foreign Ministry Wednesday issued the following statement: The DPRK's successful launch of satellite Kwangmyongsong 3-2 in December last year fully demonstrated its space science and technology and its overall national power. This was a stark fact favored by the world and recognized even by hostile forces including the United States. In the wake of desperate efforts on the part of the U.S. and its followers to block the victorious advance of the DPRK, they cooked up a "resolution" of the UN Security Council on Tuesday in wanton violation of the inviolable sovereignty of the DPRK. The U.S.-sponsored "resolution" is run through with hostile steps aiming at banning DPRK's satellite launch for peaceful purposes and tightening "sanctions" against it to block its economic development and hamstring its work for developing economy and bolstering up defence capability. The above-said countries insist that the DPRK's satellite launch is problematic, asserting that "it uses ballistic missile technology" though they know better than any others about the fact that ballistic missile technology is the only means for launching satellite and they launch satellites more than any others. This is self-deception and the height of double-standards. [Satellite] [UNUS] [Double standards]
North Korea threatens 3rd nuclear test
By Kim Young-jin North Korea threatened Wednesday to conduct a third nuclear test in a defiant act against a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution. In response, South Korea is closely monitoring Pyongyang’s activities to confirm the most likely site for such a test, a military official said. After the UNSC condemned its Dec. 12 long-range rocket launch, the North vowed to take “physical action to strengthen our self-defense military capabilities including nuclear deterrence.” [Media] [Disinformation]
N. Korea threatens nuclear test, more rocket launches in wake of new sanctions
AFP/AFP/Getty Images - This picture taken by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Dec. 12, 2012, shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un celebrating with staffs from the satellite control center during the launch of the Unha-3 rocket, carrying the satellite Kwangmyongsong-3, at the general satellite control and command center in Pyongyang. By Chico Harlan, Updated: Thursday, January 24, 7:04 PM SEOUL — North Korea threatened Thursday to carry out a nuclear test as part of an “all-out action” against the U.S., which it called the “main player” behind recently adopted international sanctions. In a statement published by Pyongyang’s state news agency and attributed to the National Defence Commission, the North said that Washington’s policy toward it had entered “a new dangerous phase.” Though an underground nuclear test would not directly threaten the U.S., it would raise stakes for the Obama administration, which has failed to curtail the North’s weapons program despite sanctions and short-lived attempts at dialogue. Intelligence experts in Seoul and Washington have speculated for months that the family-run police state is preparing to conduct its third nuclear blast, based on satellite photos of the North’s test site. The North’s state news agency has also made several opaque references about bolstering its “nuclear deterrent.” [Satellite] [UNUS] [Media] [Heading]
China welcomes UN resolution on DPRK's satellite launch
China.org.cn, January 23, 2013 The latest UN resolution on North Korea's satellite launch is generally balanced following consultations by all parties concerned, a senior Chinese diplomat said during a UN conference on Tuesday. DPRK launched its three-stage rocket on December 12, 2012. [File Photo] The UN Security Council (UNSC) unanimously adopted a resolution condemning the satellite launch by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) on Dec. 12, 2012. Li Baodong, China's permanent representative to the UN, said "the resolution is an outcome of many rounds of consultations by all parties concerned, which not only shows the stance of the international community on the DPRK's satellite launch, but also delivers some positive information, including calling for a peaceful solution to the (Korean) Peninsula issue through dialogue and negotiation as well as the resumption of the six-party talks." According to the Chinese envoy, the latest resolution, which requires the DPRK to comply with all relevant resolutions adopted by the UN Security Council and not to use ballistic missile technology for any launch, is "generally balanced." [Satellite] [UNUS] [Spin]
UN Sanctions N.Korea Over Rocket Launch
The UN Security Council unanimously decided to sanction North Korea over a rocket launch last month that was widely believed to be a cover to test ballistic missile technology. The North Korean space agency has been included on a list of North Korean entities subject to sanctions in a fresh resolution against the reclusive country. The resolution "condemns the launch and reiterates the Security Council's previous demands that North Korea abandon its nuclear weapons program and not proceed with further launches." It adds the North's Outer Space Technology Committe and other companies and state agencies to a list of bodies that are subject to sanctions. [Satellite] [UNUS]
Resolution is based on an agreement drafted by the US and China
On Jan. 22, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) unanimously adopted a resolution condemning North Korea’s December rocket launch and expanded existing UN sanctions on the Pyongyang regime. The resolution said the council “deplores the violations” by North Korea of previous resolutions. Measures, including UNSC Resolution 1874 banned North Korea from launching ballistic missiles and conducting nuclear tests, as well as importing materials and technology to be used in these programs. [Satellite] [UNUS]
N. Korea vows to end denuclearization talks
North Korea pledged on Wednesday to end any efforts at denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula, just hours after the U.N. Security Council adopted a resolution condemning the country's December rocket launch, according to North Korea's state-run news outlet. "Due to the U.S.'s worsening policy of hostility toward North Korea, the six-party talks and the joint September 19 statement were rendered null and the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula was put to an end," the North's foreign ministry said in a statement carried by the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). "There will be no more discussion over denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula in the future although there will be talks for securing peace and security in the peninsula," according to the statement. [UNUS] [Sanctions] [Response]
North Korea warns it will strengthen ‘nuclear deterrence’ in reaction to UN punishment
(Ahn Young-joon/ Associated Press ) - People watch TV showing North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea, Wednesday, Jan. 23, 2013. North Korea swiftly lashed out against the U.N. Security Council’s condemnation of its December launch of a long-range rocket, saying Wednesday that it will strengthen its military defenses - including its nuclear weaponry - in response. By Associated Press, SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea swiftly lashed out against the U.N. Security Council’s condemnation of its December launch of a long-range rocket, saying Wednesday that it will strengthen its military defenses — including its nuclear weaponry — in response. [Satellite] [UNUS] [Response]
N.Korea Built Rocket 'Mostly on Its Own'
North Korea built most of the key parts of a recently-fired space rocket on its own, analysis of debris by the South Korean military has concluded. The debris was recovered from the West Sea late last year. The military believes that the North now has the technology to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of more than 10,000 km and the capability to manufacture the parts without any help from foreign countries, a spokesman said Monday. [Satellite]
Most of December rocket was produced within North Korea
Posted on : Jan.22,2013 15:20 KST The South Korean navy displays the first stage booster of North Korea’s Unha-3 rocket in Pyongtaek on Dec. 14. The navy retrieved the rocket from the West (Yellow) Sea after North Korea’s satellite launch on Dec. 12. The Agency for Defense Development will now analyze the rocket’s internal composure. (by Lee Jeong-ah, staff photographer) Successfully launched rocket was retrieved by South Korea and shows advancement in NK capabilities By Kim Kyu-won, staff reporter The second Unha-3 rocket, which was launched by North Korea on Dec. 12, 2012, used six to ten parts that were commonly available from China and four other countries, reports say. However, analysts believe that the majority of the parts were manufactured inside North Korea. [Satellite]
What’s Behind the North Korea Nuclear Test?
Shen Dingli 22 January, 2013 – China.org.cn Will North Korea launch a third nuclear test in the “near future”? We’ve heard rumors from the West, even from the North Korea, but this is still a hard question to answer. All I can say is the country will definitely continue running such tests, but nobody other than the North Korean leader can accurately give a timeframe for the next test launch. The reason North Korea keeps running nuclear tests is related to the development of its own nuclear weapons to protect national security and diplomatic independence. It fears that the U.S. and its allies will threaten or violate its territory, which is not without precedent. In 2003, the U.S.-led occupation of Iraq overthrew Saddam Hussein’s government and caused massive amounts of damage to the local economy and national infrastructure. North Korea will not let the same possibility happen to them. [Deterrence]
The ROK’s Nuclear Energy Development and Spent Fuel Management Plans and Options
By Jungmin Kang January 22, 2013 In this report Jungmin Kang reviews the current status of and future prospects for nuclear power in the Republic of Korea. The ROK’s current nuclear capacity of 21.7 GWe will, under current plans, be approximately doubled by 2030. Given the current lack of pool storage capacity, Kang asserts that spent fuel storage in the ROK will become worse in the near future and that decisions regarding the interim storage of spent fuel will play key roles in shaping nuclear fuel cycle activities and development in South Korea. Dr. Jungmin Kang is currently a visiting professor at Lee Byong Whi Nuclear Energy Policy Center, Department of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST).
Critical Monitoring and Verification Issues In Northeast Asia
by Olli Heinonen January 15, 2013 In this short report Olli Heinonen addresses critical monitoring and verification issues arising from Morton Halperin’s proposal for a nuclear weapons free zone as a new approach for the security in Northeast Asia. Olli Heinonen is a Senior Fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University. Northeast Asia is a region, where nuclear power is and remains in the core of national energy plans, but the nuclear landscape in Northeast Asia continues to change. According to the latest IAEA projections [2], continued and expanded growth of nuclear power is expected to remain on course in the region despite the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident. Globally, the strongest growth of nuclear power is also in the Far East, mainly in China and the Republic of Korea. The region’s nuclear capacity is expected to grow from 80 GW(e) at the end of 2011, ranging from between 153 GW(e) on the low end, to 274 GW(e) on the high end estimate, by 2030. Japan and China have commercial scale uranium enrichment and spent fuel reprocessing, while Republic of Korea is seeking such capabilities in its talks on nuclear cooperation with the US. China is a NPT nuclear weapons state. North Korea is building nuclear weapons and has conducted two nuclear detonations. The latter has recently also engaged to uranium enrichment activities, which appear to be growing. With their nuclear infrastructure Japan, and increasing Republic of Korea can be considered being nuclear threshold states.
Impact of a North East Asian NWFZ on Taiwan Strait and Korea Deterrence
by Eric Heginbotham January 8, 2013 This report was originally presented at the New Approach to Security in Northeast Asia: Breaking the Gridlock workshop held on October 9th and 10th, 2012 in Washington, DC. All of the papers and presentations given at the workshop are available here, along with the full agenda, participant list and a workshop photo gallery. I. Introduction In this report Eric Heginbotham addresses the potential impact of a Northeast Asian Nuclea Weapons Free Zone on U.S. and allied deterrence capabilities in potential Korean Peninsula and Taiwan Strait scenarios. The report focuses primarily on technical military questions related to the balance and nature of military capabilities in those areas. Eric Heginbotham is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation specializing in East Asian security issues. He has recently led RAND projects assessing U.S. engagement opportunities and challenges in Southeast Asia and on U.S. and Chinese relative military capabilities. [NWFZ]
North East Asia Nuclear Weapons Free Zone: Issues for China and U.S.
by Jishe Fan January 2, 2013 This report was originally presented at the New Approach to Security in Northeast Asia: Breaking the Gridlock workshop held on October 9th and 10th, 2012 in Washington, DC. All of the papers and presentations given at the workshop are available here, along with the full agenda, participant list and a workshop photo gallery. I. Introduction This short report updates China’s official position on Nuclear Weapon Free Zones (NWFZ) in general, and analyzes China’s interests in a Northeast Asia NWFZ (NEA-NWFZ) in particular. Fan Jishe is an associate research fellow at the Institute for American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Science and a visiting scholar at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University. The views expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Nautilus Institute. Readers should note that Nautilus seeks a diversity of views and opinions on significant topics in order to identify common ground. [NWFZ] [Chinese IR]

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