Satellite and Nuclear Issues
Includes Six Party Talks
2014
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Much material on this issue finds its way to the US and other pages, when the emphasis seems to be on state-to-state relations. The exception being the Six-Party Talks which are usually posted here.
for some key documents see 2011 page

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• December
• November
• October
• September
• August
• July
• June
• May
• April
• March
• February
• January

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DECEMBER 2014

• Kim Jong Un’s Nuclear Doctrine and Strategy: What Everyone Needs to Know
  Alexandre Y. Mansourov, Ph.D. Senior Associate of Nautilus Institute North Korea has a small operational nuclear weapons program and a robust ballistic missile development program. The North conducted three small yield nuclear tests to prove its research and development results, improving the reliability of its designs and learning to further miniaturize its nuclear warheads for ballistic missile delivery, and to publicly demonstrate its acquisition of nuclear power.[1] It has a stockpile of plutonium sufficient to build 4-8 nuclear warheads.[2] Following the restart of the Yongbyon nuclear reactor, it can reprocess enough plutonium for the production of one additional nuclear warhead per year. It has a highly-enriched uranium program, but its extent remains unclear. Its nuclear weapons development program is complimented by an active ballistic missile development program. Armed with around 700 short-range SCUD missiles capable of hitting South Korea, 200 Nodong medium-range missiles capable of hitting targets in Japan, and up to a hundred of intermedium range Musudan and KN-08 missiles on mobile platforms that can reach Guam, North Korea continues to work on an intercontinental ballistic missile that will be capable of striking the United States. It still has to overcome at least three technical challenges in order to develop a working and reliable nuclear weapons capability: to weaponize and minituarize a nuclear device to fit it on an ICBM,[3] to develop a dependable guidance system, and to develop a re-entry vehicle that can survive both the launch and re-entry. This will certainly be a time-consuming and costly process, especially in light of intensifying international sanctions. All in all, the Defense Intelligence Agency assessed with moderate confidence that the “North currently has nuclear weapons capable of delivery by ballistic missiles however the reliability will be low.” But, the Obama administration expressed considerable doubt about the efficacy and utility of North Korean nuclear missile capabilities. [Deterrent] [Byungjin]
• US Attends then Defies Conference on Nuclear Weapons Effects
  by John Laforge VIENNA, Austria A pair of conferences here this week have tried to raise public and government awareness of nuclear weapons. The first, a Civil Society Forum put on by the Int’l Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, ICAN, brought together non-governmental groups, parliamentarians, and activists of all stripes to try and boost morale and renew enthusiasm in efforts to ban the bomb. About 700 participants spent two days delving into the ghastly health and environmental effects of nuclear war, the hair-raising frequency of H-bomb accidents and near detonations, and the horrifying impacts of bomb test fallout — and other human radiation experiments conducted without informed consent upon our own unwitting civilians and soldiers. This is ground that’s been plowed before, and for decades, but it’s nevertheless staggering to the uninitiated and is never repeated too often — especially in view of the destabilization and skyrocketing death toll of what the Pope has called today’s “World War Three.” ICAN’s infusion of youthful encouragement and high-energy mobilization is a welcome relief for the doddering anti-nuclear movement that’s seen a generation of activists lost to campaigns against corporate globalization and the perpetrators of climate collapse. Mary Olson, of Nuclear Information and Resource Service, who presented expert testimony on the shocking gender bias in radiation dose effects, said she had gotten a “surprisingly big jolt of hope from the youngness of the gathering.”
• No Sign of Preparations for an Impending Nuclear Test at North Korea’s Punggye-ri
  By 38 North 10 December 2014 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu In the aftermath of the Third Committee of United Nations General Assembly’s adoption of a resolution condemning the human rights situation in North Korea including encouragement to the Security Council to consider and ICC referral, Pyongyang has responded with threats to conduct a fourth nuclear test. However, according to recent commercial satellite imagery of the Punggye-ri nuclear test site, there are no preparations being made for a detonation in the near future. [Test]

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NOVEMBER 2014

• Undermining Nuclear Non-Proliferation: Energy and Security Politics in the Australia-India-Japan-U.S. Nuclear Nexus
  Adam Broinowski The Asia-Pacific Journal, Vol. 12, Issue 46, No. 2, November 1, 2014. The inception of the U.S.-led nuclear alliance system From the world’s first atomic test on 16 July 1945, uranium, nuclear reactors and nuclear weapons have played a key role in the US-led alliance system. As the former axis powers of Japan, West Germany and Italy as well as other strategically important territories such as South Korea, the Philippines and Taiwan, were incorporated in a US foreign policy designed to confront and contain the Soviet Union and the People’s Republic of China, nuclear weapons were deployed with the justification of being necessary to deter large Communist conventional forces. In the New Look doctrine of ‘massive retaliation’ introduced under Eisenhower, Truman’s policy of targeting roughly seventy Soviet cities with 133 atomic bombs over thirty days (Operation Fleetwood) was magnified to the use of nuclear weapons like normal munitions and therefore increasing their stockpiles and yield capacity. While the PRC was repeatedly threatened with nuclear strikes from air and missile delivery platforms during the Korean War, as was North Korea, and during the crisis in the Taiwan Strait in the 1950s, by late 1960, a single integrated operational plan (SIOP-62) targeted Soviet, Chinese and satellite cities with the simultaneous launch of all nuclear forces without restraint.1 [Nuclear weapons] [Nuclear energy] [Uranium] [Australia India]
• DPRK to resume 6-party talks without preconditions
  Xinhua, November 21, 2014 The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) is ready to resume six-party talks on the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula without preconditions, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Thursday. "We have received assurances ... that Pyongyang is ready to resume six-party talks without preconditions, based on the joint statement that the participants in the six-party format of the negotiations adopted in September 2005," Lavrov told reporters after talks with Choe Ryong Hae, special envoy of the DPRK's top leader Kim Jong Un. He said Choe, who arrived in Moscow on Monday for an eight-day visit, had handed Russian President Vladimir Putin a message from Kim that "confirmed the readiness to develop our bilateral ties and cooperate in resolving the problems which persist on the Korean Peninsula." Noting that Russia-DPRK trade and economic relations "are reaching a whole new level," Lavrov said the two countries will further interact in the future. "As for the schedule of contacts, we have confirmed our readiness to carry out contacts at all levels, including the summit level, within the timeframe agreed for both sides," he said. Lavrov also stressed that recent media reports over the DPRK's nuclear reactor activity in the Yongbyon nuclear complex should be verified. "Such claims should be backed by facts, not by media allegations," he said, adding that the working group on the peninsula's security issues should resume its activity so that all concerns could be professionally discussed. Choe's visit followed a series of high-ranking visits by DPRK officials this year. Vice Marshal Hyon Yong Chol, minister of the People's Armed Forces, met Putin in Moscow on Nov. 8 and conveyed Kim's greetings. DPRK Foreign Minister Ri Su Yong visited Russia on Sept. 30. Choe will also visit Russia's Far East cities of Khabarovsk and Vladivostok on his way back home. [Six Party Talks] [Preconditions]
• What was Panetta thinking?
  Former U.S. defense secretary's revelations about going nuclear raise disquieting questions
  Tim Beal
  November 20th, 2014 I have long considered North Korea’s frequent charge that the U.S. is contemplating a nuclear strike clunky and unconvincing. The assertion seemed very much over the top, and as we know from the fairy story, crying wolf unnecessarily is not a good strategy. The accusation surfaces most frequently in denunciations of the biannual joint U.S./South Korea military exercises. For instance: The north-targeted war exercises staged by the U.S. together with the puppet army in south Korea are a heinous nuclear war rehearsal to bring a nuclear holocaust to the Korean Peninsula, Northeast Asia and other parts of the world. North Korea is quite right to complain about the exercises; they are a threat to peace, they stymie any possibility of improved relations between the two Koreas, and they force the North to divert resources from the civilian economy – from things like food and health – to defense. Their purported justification to counter the threat of an invasion from the North is quite fraudulent and this is often admitted by the more serious American experts: [Panetta] [Nuclear weapons]
• It's Time to Talk About Nukes Again
  An intellectual vacuum is leading to inane conclusions By Robert Spalding III & Adam Lowther Speaking to a group of children, Russian President Vladimir Putin raised a topic that has seen little attention in more than a generation—nuclear war. While many American analysts were struck when Putin broached the subject, the fact that we are still talking about nuclear war should come as no surprise. After all, the United States failed to disarm a defeated adversary at the end of the Cold War – something that usually happens when you “win” a war. More importantly, the West is complicit in creating the dangerous perception that nuclear war is a threat that lies in our past. At the end of the Cold War, the U.S. military abandoned deterrence, the strategy that served the nation well for over four decades. In search of new missions, the military found that the world was still quite dangerous. Over the next two decades, the U.S. military worked to perfect operations in a globalized world. Just as during the Cold War, our military capabilities became dominant. This time, however, it was conventional warfare, both at the high (Desert Storm) and low (Iraq and Afghanistan) ends of the spectrum. Along the path to conventional warfare expertise, the military raised an entire generation of military officers ignorant of both the military and political value of nuclear weapons. [Nuclear weapons] [US global strategy]
• North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Facility: Reactor Shutdown Continues; Activity at Reprocessing Facility
  By 38 North 19 November 2014 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Nick Hansen. Summary Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates that the 5 MWe plutonium production reactor at North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center remains shutdown after 10 weeks, longer than what is required for routine maintenance. While it is too soon to reach a definitive conclusion, new evidence is accumulating that suggests: 1) the shutdown may have allowed the North to remove a limited number of fuel rods, possibly failed, from the reactor; and 2) Pyongyang may be preparing to restart the Radiochemical Laboratory, which separates weapons-grade plutonium from waste products in spent nuclear fuel rods. [Yongbyon]
• The Impending Dangers of Nuclear War: America’s W88 Thermonuclear Warhead is 30 Times a Hiroshima Bomb
  By Jim McCluskey Global Research, November 14, 2014 The US, the UK, Russia, China and France are rebuilding or upgrading their arsenals of nuclear weapons. The other four nuclear states(Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea) too are ‘improving’ their arsenals. As we discuss the statistics and strategies of ‘nuclear arsenals’ and ‘nuclear deterrence’ it can be hard to keep in mind the reality underlying the abstract discussions. The nine nuclear states have over 10,000 nuclear weapons in their stockpiles1. This is enough to wipe out the entire population of the planet many times over together with all other life forms. Is this sane? Has the human race lost its senses? A single United States thermonuclear warhead, designated W88, has an estimated ‘yield’ of 475 kilotons2. The ‘yield’ is the destructive power expressed in tons of TNT equivalent. [Nuclear weapons]
• China plans to launch 120 applied satellites
  Xinhua, November 11, 2014 China will launch around 120 more applied satellites to accommodate economic and social needs, a senior executive of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation said on Monday. However, Yang Baohua, deputy general manager of the corporation, did not specify the period of time over which the launches will span. The Chinese economy will continue to record relatively high growth, generating more demand for aerospace technologies, Yang said at an international aviation and aerospace forum held in south China's Zhuhai city. "We will focus on building a self-controlled national space infrastructure that can operate continuously and stably for a long time," Yang added. China will launch about 70 remote sensing satellites to detect the near-Earth space environment and predict extreme events, according to Yang. China will also launch about 20 communication satellites to meet communication demand in national security and public services. In addition, China will launch about 30 navigation satellites to provide accurate and reliable global positioning and navigation services. [Satellite] [GPS]
• Don’t Know Where Waldo Went, But Kim Jong Un Was in Wonsan: Geolocating North Korea’s June 26 and August 14 Missile Launches
  By Jeffrey Lewis 03 November 2014 On at least two occasions this year, North Korea has tested what it describes as an “ultra precision” tactical missile. ?On June 26, 2014, North Korea launched two “newly developed cutting-edge ultra-precision tactical guided missiles.” Kim Jong Un attended the launch. ?On August 14, 2014, North Korea again tested “an ultra-precision high-performance tactical rocket of Korean style.” Kim was in attendance. The ROK military stated that North Korea fired five missiles 220 km. Left: Front page of the Rodong Sinmun on June 27, 2014; Right: Front page of the Rodong Sinmun on August 15, 2014. Left: Front page of the Rodong Sinmun on June 27, 2014; Right: Front page of the Rodong Sinmun on August 15, 2014. Images of the August 14 test, released by KCNA and Rodong Sinmun, suggest the new missile may be an extended-range version of the Soviet SS-21 Tochka surface-to-surface missile. The SS-21 Scarab is a solid-fueled tactical missile developed by the Soviet Union in the 1970s to replace the Frog-7 rocket artillery system. The SS-21 represented a significant improvement in accuracy over the Frog. The Soviet Union planned to use the more accurate SS-21 for precision strikes against tactical targets such as command posts and airfields. The SS-21 is normally armed with a fragmentation warhead using conventional explosives, but the SS-21 could also be armed with nuclear, chemical or biological warheads. In 1983-1984, the Soviet Union supplied SS-21 launches and missiles to Syria. The US calls the North Korean version of the missile the KN-02 Toksa. (For the best review of the KN-02, see Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., “The KN-02 SRBM,” KPA Journal, February 2010.)
• Nuclear Weapons and the Korean War: A Precarious Beginning for the Tradition of Non-Use
  by Nathan A. Jennings Journal Article | November 4, 2014 - 6:37am Abstract: Throughout the dramatic invasions and counter-invasions that defined the Korean War the United States retained a ready nuclear arsenal. Supreme and peerless in atomic might even when compared to the nascent Soviet capability, America enjoyed the singular capacity to destroy Chinese war-making capability on a strategic level, and to substantially degrade ground formations at the operational and tactical levels. Despite serious consideration, American decision makers chose to fight to a high-consumption and high-cost war through conventional means rather than employing the unparalleled power of nuclear technology. This choice of atomic non-use set the precedent for an enduring tradition of nuclear restraint that remains in effect today. [Nuclear weapons] [Korean War]
• Five Ways Nuclear Armageddon Was Almost Unleashed
  As Russia and the West confront each other again, they should look back to the past: TNI presents the five worst superpower crises of the Cold War. Tom Nichols August 9, 2014 An international “crisis” is the anxious space between peace and war. It is defined by three things: time, threat, and the likelihood of violence. The shorter the time, the greater the sense of threat to important interests, and the greater the chance of physical harm, the more intense the crisis. By definition, it cannot go on indefinitely: like the analogous medical term, it’s the point at which things must get better or worse. The July crisis of 1914 lasted only weeks, for example, but plunged the Great Powers into their first global war. During the Cold War, “crisis” had a special connotation, because each moment of political conflict raised the possibility of nuclear war between the United States and the Soviet Union. Every confrontation carried the potential not only for war, but for the extermination of human civilization. While we look back on these periods now as something like curios in a museum, they were moments of existential fear for both American and Soviet leaders. [Nuclear weapons] [Cold War]
• N. Korea launches ballistic missile submarine: gov't sources
  North Korea has launched a new submarine capable of firing ballistic missiles, military and government sources in Seoul said Sunday, raising further concerns over the North's evolving missile and nuclear threats. The communist country "imported a Soviet-era Golf-class diesel submarine and modified it," a government source said on condition of anonymity. The Soviet vessel was built in 1958 and decommissioned in 1990. [Military balance] [SLBM]
• Why does Britain need to feel special?
  Paul Ingram 31 October 2014 The world is getting restless with some states' attachment to nuclear weapons. So why is Britain going out of its way to deepen its nuclear relationship with the United States? The small community of observers who watch Britain’s quiet moves to extend its nuclear lifeline with the United States have just been rewarded–the ten-year renewal and modification of the US-UK nuclear Mutual Defence Agreement (MDA) to be debated in Parliament next Thursday. Critics claim the arrangement stretches and breaks Britain’s legal commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and ensures Britain remains dependent upon America for both its nuclear arsenal and foreign policy direction. But it goes deeper than that: Britain and other governments face a choice. In an age of climate change, resource scarcity and other global inter-dependencies, the chances of successful adaptation of human societies to these stresses depends upon governments cooperating more effectively within multilateral frameworks. Privileged arrangements like the MDA that undermine this approach must be swept away. The MDA governs cooperation in matters related to nuclear weapons between the United States and the UK. The two states share Trident missiles from a common pool, technologies associated with the design and development of nuclear warheads, and critical parts of the huge ‘boomer’ submarines that carry the missiles and warheads. For example, despite different requirements that mean the UK will have to fill four missile tubes with concrete ballast or use them for different purposes, both versions of the new follow-on submarines will have a common missile compartment with twelve missile tubes, command and control facilities and crew quarters. [Nuclear weapons] [UK] [Double standards] [NPT] [Trident]

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OCTOBER 2014

• Nuclear Safety Concerns with China’s Growing Reactor Fleet
  You are here: Home » NAPSNet » Policy Forum » Nuclear Safety Concerns with China’s Growing Reactor Fleet Hello! The below report is written in English. To translate the full report, please use the translator in the top right corner of the page. Do not show me this notice in the future. David Von Hippel and James H. Williams Nautilus Institute 28 October 2014 This paper was originally published with support from the Hanyang University’s Energy, Governance and Security (EGS) Center, available in Global Energy Monitor Vol. 1, No.4. David Von Hippel is a Nautilus Institute Senior Associate working on energy and environmental issues in Asia, including on nuclear spent fuel management issues. James H. Williams is Chief Scientist at Energy+Environmental Economics, focusing on greenhouse gas emissions reduction and related issues in China and the US. Nuclear Safety Concerns with China’s Growing Reactor Fleet In the aftermath of the March 2011 tsunami-induced accident at the Fukushima nuclear plant in Japan, with its widespread releases of radioactive material and tense days of worry that the disaster could take an even worse turn, many governments around the world took the opportunity to review their nuclear power programs. In some nations—Germany is an example—the result has been a commitment to phasing out nuclear power. In Japan, all of the nations’ reactors were taken off-line for extensive safety checks, and a panel was convened to look at different nuclear futures (including nuclear phase-out) for Japan, though a new government is now revisiting the phase-out plan. In China, the Fukushima accident spurred the government to undertake what turned out to be a relatively rapid review of reactor sites and nuclear development plans before resuming construction of China’s reactor fleet. In almost any scenario of global nuclear power development, China will be building the majority of the world’s new reactors. With electricity generation capacity in China growing at an average of 80 GW (gigawatts, or million kilowatts) or more annually over the last decade (equivalent to the current ROK total installed capacity as of 2013), and given the considerable environmental impacts—ranging from greenhouse gas emissions to local air pollution—of the coal-fired power that provides 80 percent of China’s electricity needs, China’s nuclear energy ambitions seem understandable. Recently, however, questions have been raised about not only the pace of China’s nuclear build-out, but whether the resulting reactor fleet will provide China with the safe, clean power that is expected. Nuclear experts, including former government nuclear physicist He Zuoxiu, have been raising concerns about the potential of major nuclear accidents in China’s reactor fleet, based in part on the statistical history of nuclear accidents worldwide, and in part on issues particular to China, such as the fragmented nature of the Chinese nuclear industry, the relative lack of maturity of Chinese institutions overseeing the nuclear industry, and the lack of coordination between planning for nuclear power capacity additions and planning for the electricity transmission and distribution improvements needed to safely support the new reactors. [Nuclear energy] [China bashing]
• N.Korea Can Build Nuclear Warhead, USFK Chief Claims
  The commander of the U.S. Forces Korea on Friday claimed North Korea is capable of building a nuclear warhead but admitted that no tests of such a device have taken place. "I believe they have the capability to miniaturize a device at this point and they have the technology to potentially deliver what they say they have," Gen. Curtis Scarparotti told reporters at the Pentagon. "We've not seen it tested, and I don't think as a commander we can afford the luxury of believing perhaps they haven't gotten there," he added. "What I'm saying is ... that I think given their technological capabilities, the time that they've been working on this, that they probably have the capabilities to put this together." Seoul phrased it more carefully. The North's ability to miniaturize nuclear weapons sufficiently to mount them on a missile "seems to have become almost real," a Defense Ministry official here said Sunday. But until September, the ministry said that the chances were slim that the North has succeeded in making nuclear weapons weighing less than 1 ton. It is unclear why Scarparotti decided to ramp up the rhetoric, though he may have had in mind his government's attempts to push South Korea into joining the U.S. missile defense program. [Nuclear weapons] [Missile defense]
• How a US and International Atomic Energy Agency Deception Haunts the Nuclear Talks
  Tuesday, 21 October 2014 09:40 By Gareth Porter, Truthout | News Analysis In 2008, the Bush administration and a key IAEA official agreed on a strategy of misrepresenting Iran's position on the authenticity of intelligence documents, which they used to establish an official narrative of Iran "stonewalling" the IAEA investigation. That narrative continues to shape Obama administration policy in the nuclear talks. The accusation by US and other Western diplomats that Iran has been "stonewalling" the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) investigation of alleged past nuclear weapons work has been a familiar theme in mainstream media coverage of Iran's relations with the IAEA for years. What remains virtually unknown, however, is how a brazen deception by the George W. Bush administration and a key official within the IAEA created the false narrative of Iranian refusal to cooperate with the IAEA and was used to justify harsh international sanctions. [Olli Heinonen] [IEAE] [Disinformation] [Iran] [UNUS]
• North Korea Ready to Start Nuclear Talks
  By Reuters Oct. 2, 2014 GENEVA — A senior North Korean envoy said Thursday that his country was ready to resume six-party talks on its nuclear program, but must maintain its readiness in the face of joint military exercises between the United States and South Korea. In an interview, North Korea’s ambassador to the United Nations, So Se-pyong, also said that his country was not planning a nuclear test and that reports that its leader, Kim Jong-un, was ill were “fabricated rumors.” The negotiations over North Korea’s nuclear program have stalled, but in Geneva, Mr. So said, “We are ready,” adding, “I think China and Russia and the D.P.R.K. are ready,” referring to his country, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. He continued: “But America, they don’t like that kind of talks right now. Because America does not like that, so that’s why the countries like South Korea, Japan also are not ready for those talks.” North Korea promised to abandon its nuclear program in 2005, but it appeared to renege on the agreement when it tested nuclear devices in 2006 and 2009. In light of American and South Korean military exercises, Mr. So said, “We have to be alert; also, we have to be prepared to make countermeasures.” Asked whether North Korea was preparing a nuclear test or to fire a missile, he replied, “No, no.” Mr. So said that denuclearization “is the party’s policy.” Questions about Mr. Kim’s health were prompted by his failure to appear in public for weeks, and then by a video that showed him limping. But Mr. So denied that Mr. Kim had had surgery on his ankles, and asked about the nature of his ailment, Mr. So said, “That is rumors, fabricated rumors.” Mr. So said it was not clear that the United States was willing to negotiate the release of three Americans held by North Korea. “I was told that they asked for the government of America to have negotiations on those problems,” Mr. So said, “but I don’t know whether America is ready or not to release them, or have some understandings or the recognition of those crimes they made.” [Six Party Talks] [Media]
• North Korea’s Sohae Satellite Launching Station: Major Upgrade Program Completed; Facility Operational Again
  By 38 North 01 October 2014 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Nick Hansen Summary Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates that North Korea has completed a major construction program begun in late 2013 to upgrade the Sohae Satellite Launching Station. A key component of that program has been to upgrade an existing launch pad, enabling it to launch rockets larger than the existing Unha-3 space launch vehicle in the future. North Korea is now ready to move forward with another rocket launch. Should a decision be made soon to do so in Pyongyang—and we have no evidence that one has—a rocket could be launched by the end of 2014. The most likely candidate remains the Unha-3 SLV, last tested in December 2012, since a much larger rocket, reportedly under development, is at least several years from becoming operational. Continuing activities on the ground at Sohae merit close watching. Imagery from mid-September spotted tanks near the propellant storage buildings at the launch pad for the first time since the 2012 launch. The exact purpose of this activity remains unclear. Recent imagery also indicates that Pyongyang conducted another engine test in early August of the rocket motor used in the KN-08 road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), part of a series begun in early 2013. It remains unclear how successful these tests have been. However, rocket motor tests are typically conducted prior to full-scale test launches of a missile that precede a weapon becoming operational. [SLV]

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SEPTEMBER 2014

• Arab Resolution on Israel Defeated at IAEA Meeting
  VIENNA — Sep 25, 2014, 3:10 PM ET An Arab-backed resolution singling out Israel for special attention over its alleged nuclear arsenal was defeated Thursday at an annual conference of the U.N. atomic agency. Nations meeting at the International Atomic Energy Agency's general conference voted 58-45 against the resolution, while 27 abstained. Backed by 18 Arab states, including Syria, the resolution expressed concern "about the Israeli nuclear capabilities," urging Israel to join the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and put its nuclear facilities under international oversight. The Jewish state is overwhelmingly considered to possess nuclear arms but declines to confirm it. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu welcomed the outcome of the vote, calling the resolution an effort "to harm Israel." It was the second consecutive year that a resolution seeking to censure Israel was put to a vote and defeated at the IAEA meeting. Introducing the resolution in Vienna, Kuwaiti Ambassador Sadiq Marafi criticized what he called Israel's "provocative and aggressive attitude" and described the country as "the only obstacle on a way to create a nuclear weapon-free zone in the Middle East." Israeli Ambassador Merav Zafari-Odiz, while welcoming the outcome, questioned how a "genuine dialogue among regional parties" could be expected "when our Arab neighbors continue to choose the path of condemning and singling out Israel in every possible international arena." The U.S. opposed the resolution. U.S. envoy Laura Kennedy said it "lessens confidence among the regional parties and diminishes the prospect for constructive dialogue." Separately, the conference voted 117-0, with 13 abstentions, in favor of a resolution submitted by Egypt that called on "all states in the region" to join the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. [UNUS] [IAEA] [Israel] [NPT] [Double standards]
• U.S. Ramping Up Major Renewal in Nuclear Arms
  By William J. Broad and David E. Sanger Sept. 21, 2014 KANSAS CITY, Mo. — A sprawling new plant here in a former soybean field makes the mechanical guts of America’s atomic warheads. Bigger than the Pentagon, full of futuristic gear and thousands of workers, the plant, dedicated last month, modernizes the aging weapons that the United States can fire from missiles, bombers and submarines. It is part of a nationwide wave of atomic revitalization that includes plans for a new generation of weapon carriers. A recent federal study put the collective price tag, over the next three decades, at up to a trillion dollars. [Nuclear weapons]
• The Passing of the Nuclear Torch: The Next Generation of WMD Scientists
  By Michael Madden 22 September 2014 You probably missed the obituary. But on July 7, when North Korean media announced the death of the 88-year-old senior North Korean official Jon Pyong Ho, it highlighted an important but largely ignored development in Pyongyang’s effort to build weapons of mass destruction (WMD). While most observers focus on Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile tests, they ignore the shift happening in North Korea’s WMD community: a newer generation is replacing the North Korean scientists who played a key role in developing Pyongyang’s WMDs. This new generation will play a central role in determining whether North Korea will become a (small) nuclear power. Generational change is natural as older scientists fade from the scene, but there are other factors driving this process. North Korean munitions production formerly focused on enhancing conventional military capabilities, developing short and medium-range ballistic missiles, and filling orders from foreign countries. But by the mid-1990s, resources had already begun to shift to the development of long-range missiles—like the Taepodong rocket, which first launched in 1998. [Missiles] [Intelligence]
• N.Korea Claims Nukes Needed to Protect Human Rights
  North Korea in a quixotic report on Saturday claimed that its nuclear weapons development is "indispensible" for the protection and advancement of human rights. The report aims to counter the first UN discussion at ministerial level on the North's dismal human rights record. In a section titled "Prospects for the Protection and Promotion of Human Rights" in the 128-page report, the North said, "human rights is secured and guaranteed by the sovereignty of each country and nation, not by the interference and instruction of any country or international organizations." [Deterrence] [Human rights]
• Israel's Worst-Kept Secret
  Is the silence over Israeli nukes doing more harm than good? Douglas Birch and R. Jeffrey Smith Sep 16 2014, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon present seized rockets that were allegedly supplied by Iran and destined for Gaza. (Amir Cohen/Reuters) Israel has a substantial arsenal of nuclear weapons. Former CIA Director Robert Gates said so during his 2006 Senate confirmation hearings for secretary of defense, when he noted—while serving as a university president—that Iran is surrounded by “powers with nuclear weapons,” including “the Israelis to the west.” Former President Jimmy Carter said so in 2008 and again this year, in interviews and speeches in which he pegged the number of Israel’s nuclear warheads at 150 to around 300. But due to a quirk of federal secrecy rules, such remarks generally cannot be made even now by those who work for the U.S. government and hold active security clearances. In fact, U.S. officials, even those on Capitol Hill, are routinely admonished not to mention the existence of an Israeli nuclear arsenal and occasionally punished when they do so. The policy of never publicly confirming what a scholar once called one of the world’s “worst-kept secrets” dates from a political deal between the United States and Israel in the late 1960s. Its consequence has been to help Israel maintain a distinctive military posture in the Middle East while avoiding the scrutiny—and occasional disapprobation—applied to the world’s eight acknowledged nuclear powers. But the U.S. policy of shielding the Israeli program has recently provoked new controversy, partly because of allegations that it played a role in the censure of a well-known national-laboratory arms researcher in July, after he published an article in which he acknowledged that Israel has nuclear arms. Some scholars and experts are also complaining that the government’s lack of candor is complicating its high-profile campaign to block the development of nuclear arms in Iran, as well as U.S.-led planning for a potential treaty prohibiting nuclear arms anywhere in the region. [Israel] [Nuclear weapons]
• Mideast Nuclear Weapons-Free Zone Remains in Limbo
  By Thalif Deen "Western governments which helped Israel to go nuclear compound the problem, participating in this conspiracy of silence by never mentioning Israel's nuclear weapons.” -- Bob Rigg, former chair of the New Zealand National Consultative Committee on Disarmament A proposal for a nuclear weapons-free zone (NWFZ) in the strife-torn Middle East remains in limbo. Credit: Bomoon Lee/IPS UNITED NATIONS, Sep 11 2014 (IPS) - After four long years of protracted negotiations, a proposal for a nuclear weapons-free zone (NWFZ) in the strife-torn Middle East remains in limbo – and perhaps virtually dead. But United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, a relentless advocate of nuclear disarmament, is determined to resurrect the proposal. “I remain fully committed to convening a conference on the establishment of a Middle East zone, free of nuclear weapons and all other weapons of mass destruction,” he said in his annual report to the upcoming 69th session of the General Assembly, which is scheduled to open Sep. 16. Ban said such a zone is of “utmost importance” for the integrity of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT). "Western governments which helped Israel to go nuclear compound the problem, participating in this conspiracy of silence by never mentioning Israel's nuclear weapons.” -- Bob Rigg, former chair of the New Zealand National Consultative Committee on Disarmament “Nuclear weapons-free zones contribute greatly to strengthening nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation regimes, and to enhancing regional and international security,” he noted. [NWFZ] [Israel] [UNUS]
• IAEA Confirms N.Korea Restarted Nuclear Reactor
  The International Atomic Energy Agency last Friday said North Korea has definitely resumed operations at its Yongbyon nuclear facility. In an annual report, the IAEA said, "Since late August 2013, the agency has observed, through analysis of satellite imagery, steam discharges and the outflow of cooling water at the 5 MW(e) reactor, signatures which are consistent with the reactor's operation." "The agency has continued to observe building renovation and new construction activities at various locations within the Yongbyon site." This roughly coincides with the North's own announcements. North Korea's nuclear program "remains a matter of serious concern," the report adds, but since North Korea expelled IAEA inspectors in 2009 the facts are somewhat hazy. The North blew up the reactor's cooling tower and suspended operation in 2008 under an agreement reached in six-party talks, but the deal later crumbled. In April last year, the North pledged to reactivate the 5 MW reactor, citing "hostility" from the U.S. and South Korea. Seoul urged Pyongyang to immediately stop nuclear development. "North Korea should fulfill its international obligations, including its promise to abandon nuclear weapons" in accordance with a Sept. 19, 2005 statement of principles from the six-party talks and UN Security Council resolutions. "The IAEA report is a spur to stronger diplomatic measures in cooperation with the international community," a senior Foreign Ministry official here said. [Yongbyon] [IAEA]
• How Washington helped create Israel's secret nuclear arsenal
  In the 1960s the US was far from blindly supporting Israeli interests in the Middle East. Last updated: 03 Sep 2014 15:14 Philip Giraldi Philip Giraldi is a former military intelligence and Central Intelligence Agency officer who has worked on counter-terrorism in Europe and the Middle East. He is currently Executive Director of the Council for the National Interest. The CIA believed nuclear material stolen from the US in the 1960s was shipped to Israel's Dimona nuclear research centre [AFP/Getty Images] Recently declassified documents reveal that consideration of how and when the White House can or should pressure Israel over policies damaging to the United States has been a contentious issue for quite some time. The 107 pages of formerly top secret memos, dating from 1968-9, relate to deliberations over what to do about the Israeli nuclear weapons programme. Prior to that time, the US position had been clear, supporting the principle that nuclear weapons should not be introduced into the Middle East. The declassified story President John F Kennedy was convinced that Israel was building a weapon and fully intended to force its government to abandon the effort and join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which Washington supported. Kennedy's death and his replacement by the strongly pro-Zionist Lyndon B Johnson did not shift the general perception that a nuclear armed Israel would not be in US interest, though Johnson notably refused to tie the impending sale of 50 F-4 Phantom fighter-bombers to Israeli abandonment of both its nuclear and ballistic missile programmes, as the Pentagon had recommended. President Richard M Nixon arrived on the scene in January 1969, a year and a half after Israel's successful attack on Jordan, Syria, and Egypt. Israel was still fighting Egyptians in Sinai in the so-called War of Attrition, a conflict which Washington was attempting to mediate to reopen the Suez Canal to shipping. Nixon, regarded by some as anti-Semitic, was no natural friend of Israel but his foreign policy was strictly pragmatic as he sought to disengage from Vietnam and counter communist advances in other parts of the globe. In the Middle East, he saw Israel as a potential asset given the de facto alignment of states like Syria and Egypt with the Soviet Union. [Israel] [Nuclear weapons]
• NK fires short-range missiles into East Sea
  North Korea fired three short-range missiles into the East Sea on Saturday, South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said. The projectiles were fired between 7 and 7:30 a.m. from a site in its eastern border town of Wonsan. They were presumed to have landed in the East Sea after flying some 210 kilometers, according to the JCS. "The military is staying vigilant and paying attention to movements of the North Korean military in case of an additional launch," a JCS officer said. While the military "is analyzing what type of missile the North launched and what lies behind its test-firing," the officer said that it is presumed to be a new type of tactical missile. The short-range projectiles that the communist country test-fired last month and earlier this week from Wonsan and the northwestern province of Chagang bordering with China respectively were "novel tactical missiles," which are different from its existing KN-02 missiles and 300-millimeter multiple rocket launcher, the officer said. "We have concluded that the short-range missiles fired on Aug. 14 and Sept. 1 were novel tactical missiles," the officer said. The military presumes that the ones fired on Sunday are the same ones as well, the officer said. Sunday's firing marked the 19th time that the bellicose neighbor has launched missiles or rockets this year, with the number of projectiles fired totaling 111, according to JCS data. (Yonhap) [Warning] [Joint US military] [Inversion]

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AUGUST 2014

• North Korea’s Sohae Satellite Launching Station: Upgrades Near Completion; Ready for More Launches?
  By 38 North 21 August 2014 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Nick Hansen. Summary Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates that North Korea is nearing completion of several significant construction projects at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station despite heavy rains in mid-July. The effort underway since late last year—to upgrade the gantry tower and launch pad—that will enable the North Koreans to test space launch vehicles with greater ranges and carry larger payloads than the Unha rocket fired in 2012 should be finished by fall. As a result, the North will be able to conduct new launches from this site before the end of the year should it decide to do so. [Satellite] [SLV]
• Kim Jong Un Guides Tactical Rocket Test-fire
  Pyongyang, August 15 (KCNA) -- On the occasion of the 69th anniversary of the liberation of Korea, the DPRK test-fired an ultra-precision high-performance tactical rocket of Korean style which was developed on the initiative of supreme leader Kim Jong Un and under his guidance. Supreme Commander of the Korean People's Army Kim Jong Un, first secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea and first chairman of the National Defence Commission of the DPRK, guided the test-fire. He learned about the engineering data of the tactical rocket on the observation post and issued an order to test-fire it. [Missile]
• North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: All Quiet for the Moment
  By 38 North 11 August 2014 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu Since speculation that North Korea was on the verge of conducting its fourth nuclear test in late April 2014, activity at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site has come to a standstill. Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates that there is virtually no activity at either area where North Korea might conduct its next blast, or at the facility that would serve as the main support area for a future test. The meaning of this diminished activity remains unclear. One possibility is that test site personnel may have completed whatever initial preparations are necessary for conducting a fourth nuclear test once Pyongyang gives the order to test. (That may include finishing excavation of a third nuclear test tunnel that has been under construction at the West Portal area in addition to two already finished at the South Portal area.) Once the order is given to proceed, based on past limited experience, it would take the North approximately six to eight weeks to conduct a detonation. Whether site personnel could move more quickly if initial preparations were completed this last spring remains uncertain. However, it is likely that a spurt of activity would be observable during the run-up to another detonation. [Test]
• South Korea has world’s highest density of nuclear power plants
  Posted on : Aug.9,2014 15:00 KST Density, and risk of accident, to increase if plans to build seven more reactors go ahead By Lee Keun-young, science correspondent South Korea has the highest density of nuclear power plants of any country with more than ten, Nuclear Safety and Security Commission (NSSC) data show. The international comparison of nuclear power plant density, or number of nuclear facilities per unit area, was provided to New Politics Alliance for Democracy (NPAD) lawmaker Chang Ha-na on Aug. 8 by the NSSC. South Korea’s density stood at 0.2077, with 23 nuclear reactors providing 80,721 MW of electricity in an area of 99,720 ?, ranking it first among the world’s eleven countries with ten or more reactors in operation. Civic groups had previously estimated density from World Nuclear Association data, but this was the first-ever confirmation in official government figures. [Nuclear energy]
• Hiroshima: Counting minutes to midnight
  By Noam Chomsky If some extraterrestrial species were compiling a history of homo sapiens, they might well break their calendar into two eras: BNW (before nuclear weapons) and NWE (the nuclear weapons era). The latter era, of course, opened on August 6, 1945, the first day of the countdown to what may be the inglorious end of this strange species, which attained the intelligence to discover the effective means to destroy itself, but - so the evidence suggests - not the moral and intellectual capacity to control its worst instincts [Nuclear weapons] [Cold War] [Overture] [Soviet Union]
• North Korea expanding uranium enrichment plant: think tank
  North Korea is believed to be expanding a uranium-enrichment centrifuge plant at its Yongbyon nuclear complex while trying apparently to renovate its 5-megawatt nuclear reactor for plutonium production, a U.S. think tank said Wednesday. The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) also said in a report that the communist nation is continuing construction of a light water nuclear reactor at Yongbyon. The think tank cited commercial satellite imagery dated June 30. The "satellite imagery, combined with procurement data obtained by ISIS, suggests that North Korea is emphasizing the production of weapons-grade plutonium as well as enriched uranium for its nuclear weapons program," the report said. The imagery showed construction activities continuing in the centrifuge plant, it said. [LWR] [Uranium]
• North Korea's Sohae Facility: Interactive Panorama Updated
  A 38 North exclusive 38 North announces the release of the updated 3D panorama of the Sohae Satellite Launching Station (also referred to as Tongchang-ri). This panorama offers a reconstruction of the launch pad at Sohae, with additional details based on satellite imagery and photos of the facility. It allows the user to view the the full look of the tower, from several angles and levels. Future releases will reconstruct other facilities in the area, including the vehicle processing building, satellite control command center and fuel storage buildings. Developed by Nathan J. Hunt, this updated panorama is exclusive to 38 North. Panorama © 2014 Nathan J. Hunt/38 North. Explore this new interactive panorama of the Sohae launch pad.
• N.Korean Rockets Fizzle
  North Korea fired four short-range rockets from a new 300 mm launcher on Wednesday, but three of them exploded in mid-air or crashed immediately. The last one flew more than 200 km before falling harmlessly into the sea. The launch, from Mt. Myohyang in Pyongan Province, coincided with by-elections in South Korea. A spokesman for the Joint Chiefs of Staff here said the first two projectiles were fired in an easterly direction at 7:30 a.m. and 7:40 a.m., but they flew "for only a few seconds." The next two, at 5:50 p.m. and 6 p.m., flew for about 210 km and 130 km, he added. The three unsuccessful rockets landed in inland areas and may have caused damage to civilians, military authorities here speculated. The new MRL was previously believed to have a maximum range of 200 km, but since one rocket flew 210 km, it would be capable of hitting the South Korean military headquarters in Gyeryongdae, South Chungcheong Province if fired from the frontline. It was the North's 16th rocket test this year. On Saturday, it fired a Scud missile into the East Sea. Since Feb. 21, the North has fired 102 medium and short-range projectiles, including Scud and Rodong missiles and FROG rockets.

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JULY 2014

• North Korea’s Sohae Facility: Preparations for Future Large Rocket Launches Progresses; New Unidentified Buildings
  By 38 North 29 July 2014 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Nick Hansen Summary Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates that North Korea is nearing completion of construction and test activities at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station to support long-range missile and satellite launches in the future. These activities include: ?A major construction program underway since mid-2013 to upgrade Sohae’s gantry and launch pad—site of Pyongyang’s last two Unha-3 space-launch vehicle (SLV) tests—to handle larger rockets with greater ranges and payloads. As of July 2014, North Korea had increased the gantry height to over 50 meters, completed construction of a new wider road onto the pad to carry larger rockets, and was building a rail spur from the existing siding that would also carry larger rockets directly to the launch pad. These modifications could be completed by 2015. ?The fourth series of tests of the KN-08 road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile’s (ICBM) first stage rocket motor in 2014. Imagery of the rocket test stand beginning in late May 2014 through July 6shows evidence of a new test series, including the presence of first stage rocket motors, distressed vegetation along the edges of the flame path past the flame trench and different stain patterns and colors inside the flame trench.
• Should South Korea Go Nuclear?
  by Peter Hayes and Chung-in Moon 28 July 2014 Relative to the status quo of relying on US nuclear extended deterrence, the ROK developing and deploying its own nuclear weapons, or, arranging for redeployment of US nuclear weapons into Korea, are fantastic ideas. The latter options would reduce the credibility of US retaliation in response to a DPRK nuclear first strike, and would undermine the robustness of conventional deterrence, including conventional deterrence extended by the United States, to the ROK. The damage to ROK vital national interests from attempting to match the DPRK’s nuclear breakout would be far greater than putative gains, including loss of nuclear energy security; reduced access to trade, finance, and investment markets; irreparable damage to the ROK’s reputation for diplomatic prowess; potentially the rupture of the US alliance; the drawing of nuclear fire from other nuclear weapons states onto the ROK; and most important, the creation of an inherently unstable and permanent nuclear standoff with the DPRK described best as “mutual probable destruction.” In short, South Korea should not go nuclear. [Nuclearisation]
• DPRK fires short-range ballistic missile into sea
  Xinhua, July 27, 2014 The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) on Saturday fired a short-range ballistic missile into its eastern waters, local media reported on Saturday. The DPRK launched what was believed to be a Scud-type missile into its eastern waters in a northeasterly direction from Jangsan Cape in the western coastal region of its Hwanghae-do province at around 9:40 p.m. local time, and the range is estimated at about 500 kilometers, Yonhap quoted the South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) as saying. The JCS said in a statement that Pyongyang did not impose a no-fly, no-sail zone before the launch. The JCS said they are analyzing the purpose of the launch, adding that South Korean military has kept utmost combat readiness in case of more possible launches. It was the DPRK's 15th launch of missiles or artillery shells this year. The DPRK has launched more than 90 short- and medium- range missiles and shells since Feb. 21. Also on Saturday, the top leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) Kim Jong Un guided a rocket firing drill of the Strategic Force of the Korean People's Army (KPA), one day ahead of the 61st anniversary of the signing of the Korean War Armistice Agreement. Kim examined the test-fire plan which mapped out the location of the U.S. military bases in South Korea before the exercise started. The drill, which simulated battles to strike those U.S. forces in South Korea, proved the high combat capability of the fire strike unit and the perfect performance of the tactical rocket, the official KCNA news agency reported. [Missile] [Warning]
• North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Facility: Problems Continue with Reactor Operations
  By 38 North 18 July 2014 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Nick Hansen Summary Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates that North Korea continues to experience difficulties in operating its 5 MWe reactor, which was restarted in summer 2013. A new sand dam constructed across the Kuryong River in early March 2014 to help ensure a steady, adequate supply of water for the 5 MWe reactor’s secondary cooling system and the experimental light water reactor’s (ELWR) primary cooling system, failed in two places between April 7 and May 16. A sudden dam failure could cause major safety issues at the operational 5MWe reactor since a reliable supply of water for the secondary cooling system is essential to prevent a dangerous heat buildup in the reactor core. Imagery from early April to mid-May indicates that the 5 MWe reactor was probably shutdown or operated at reduced power levels for an undetermined amount of time.[1] This assessment is based on the absence of white foam discharge—caused by hot steam from the turbines after powering the reactor’s electric generators—from the drainpipe of the turbine building in the May 16 image. The foam reappears on imagery from May 18 and 22,[2] as repair work on the dam started. Imagery from June 22 indicates work at the breaches again, perhaps to repair new problems caused by rain the previous three days. Nevertheless, the foam was present then as well. [Yongbyon]

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JUNE 2014

• DPRK test-fires newly developed missiles
  China.org.cn, June 27, 2014 The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) test-fired "newly developed cutting-edge ultra-precision tactical guided missiles," the official KCNA news agency reported Friday morning. DPRK leader Kim Jong Un instructs the test-fire of newly developed cutting-edge ultra-precision tactical guided missiles"at the central monitoring post. [Xinhua] DPRK leader Kim Jong Un guided the test-fire at the central monitoring post, according to the official KCNA news agency, which lauded the new weapons as "another shining success" in the efforts to manufacture "high-precision, lighter, automatic and intelligent weapons and equipment." The test-fire also helped the Korean People's Army (KPA) get "the master key" to producing world-class short-, medium- and long-range guided weapons and maximizing their striking precision and power, the KCNA added. Kim "expressed great satisfaction" with the results and expressed the belief that his country would "manufacture more ultra-precision tactical guided weapons capable of taking the decisive initiative in any operation and battle of modern warfare," it said. The test-fire, the KCNA added, came at a time when the United States, South Korea and other allied forces "are going extremely reckless in the moves to isolate and stifle the DPRK and unleash a war of aggression." The KCNA did not specify when the test-fire took place, but South Korean media reported Thursday that the DPRK fired three short-range projectiles into its eastern waters. "The rockets were fired in succession from coastal areas near its eastern city of Wonsan at around 5 p.m. in a northeastern direction, and landed in international waters," South Korea's Yonhap news agency quoted the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) as saying. "Their range is some 190 km, and we are now looking into exactly what type of rockets" they were, a JCS official was quoted as saying. Also on Thursday, the DPRK accused the South Korean military of firing shells toward the waters of the DPRK from the waters around Yonphyong Island "without any prior notice." Describing the incident as a "reckless provocation," the Command of the Southwestern Front of the KPA warned that the KPA is fully prepared to strike back. [Missiles]
• N.Korea Fires Short-Range Rockets
  North Korea fired three short-range projectiles from the coast north of Wonsan on Thursday. They flew about 190 km and fell into North Korean waters near Chongjin, North Hamgyong Province, a spokesman for the Joint Chiefs of Staff here said. Experts speculate that the North has developed a new large-caliber rocket launcher that could theoretically hit a military complex in South Chungchung Province in South Korea. The missiles the North fired into the East Sea in February and March flew 140 to 160 km. Deployed near the military demarcation line, the new rocket launcher would be capable of hitting South Korea's southern parts including the Osan and Seosan airbases, military authorities said. Rocket launchers are generally less accurate than missiles but can fire hundreds of rockets in quick succession. North Korea announced Friday that it has successfully launched a "newly-developed, high-precision tactical guided missile" with its leader Kim Jong-un attended, although it did not disclose when the test-firing took place. Military authorities here assume that mostly likely referred to Thursday's firing. [Missiles]
• S. Korea and US reportedly set to revise nuclear agreement, including pyroprocessing
  Posted on : Jun.21,2014 18:56 KST Park No-byug, right, Seoul‘s chief negotiator of the Korea-U.S. Atomic Energy Agreement, and his counterpart Thomas Countryman, the U.S. assistant secretary for international security and non-proliferation. Plan would include strategic cooperation on handling spent nuclear fuel and nuclear power exports By Park Hyun, Washington correspondent Seoul and Washington are reportedly coordinating on the specifics of a plan for revising the South Korea-US Atomic Energy Agreement, with the goal of completing the revision within the year. Speaking with Washington correspondents from South Korean media outlets on June 19, a senior South Korean government official said the two sides would “work out their remaining differences through focused, small-scale discussions so that the negotiations are completed this year.” The official’s remarks hinted that some progress has been made in past negotiations. [Nuclear fuel cycle]
• When A Cruise Missile Is Just A Cruise Missile
  By Jeffrey Lewis 19 June 2014 After the release earlier this week of “Translating a Noun into a Verb Pyongyang Style: The Case of North Korea’s New Cruise Missile,” both the author and 38 North were confronted by Chad O’Carroll of NK News via Facebook and Twitter about why the issue of video authenticity was not addressed in the article. This is our response. I will admit to being a little surprised by Chad O’Carroll’s commentary on my article noting the appearance of a Kh-35-like cruise missile in a DPRK propaganda film. It’s not clear what point he was trying to make—other than that Chad O’Carroll should be mentioned in any story about the Kh-35. In that case, he’s succeeded. Welcome to the party, Chad. Let’s invite some other people to join our party as well. I was not the first person to notice the existence of the documentary. It was the Chosun Ilbo that first reported a DPRK film existed showing a Kh-35. [Cruise missile] [Intelligence] [MISCOM]
• The transformation of the nuclear weapons calculus
  Why North Korea’s Byungjin policy makes good sense, but has a sting in the tail
  Tim Beal
  June 19th, 2014 The Byungjin policy has come under a lot of criticism and even ridicule from the West since it was proclaimed at the Plenary Meeting of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea on March 31, 2013. It was termed “…a new strategic line on carrying out economic construction and building nuclear armed forces simultaneously,” even though it was new it was legitimized by reference to the past. It was, the official statement said: … a brilliant succession and development onto a new higher stage of the original line of simultaneously developing economy and national defence that was set forth and had been fully embodied by the great Generalissimos. Kim Jong Un had only been in power a few months, and the posthumous endorsement of the great Generalissimos, Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il, was to be expected. Later articles made even more specific reference to Kim Il Sung’s 1962 policy of “simultaneously developing the economy and defence.” Whilst the continuity was there, the new policy was in fact a bold and imaginative grasping of the opportunity that the transformation of the nuclear weapons calculus offered. [Byungjin] [Nuclear weapons]
• IHS Reveals New Potential Nuclear Enrichment Site in India
  Potential to expand India's uranium enrichment for its nuclear submarine fleet LONDON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--June 20, 2014-- Using satellite imagery, a covert uranium enrichment plant in India has been analysed by IHS Inc. (NYSE:IHS), a leading global source of critical information and insight. IHS Jane's defense and security intelligence experts have identified a possible new uranium hexafluoride plant at the Indian Rare Metals Plant (IRMP) near Mysore, India. This site in India will support new centrifuges that will substantially expand India's uranium enrichment capacity, most likely to facilitate the construction of an increased number of naval reactors to expand the country's nuclear submarine fleet, but also, to potentially support the development of thermonuclear weapons. IHS Jane's experts assess that the new uranium enrichment facility could become operational by mid- to late-2015. "The expansion of India's uranium enrichment facilities allows the country to press ahead with the introduction of its ballistic missile nuclear submarine fleet, part of an effort to enhance its existing nuclear deterrent in the face of perceived threats from both China and Pakistan," comments Matthew Clements, Editor, IHS Jane's Intelligence Review. Karl Dewey, Proliferation Editor at IHS Jane's Intelligence Review, added: "The enrichment plant was originally built to provide uranium for submarine reactors. But there is now significant excess capacity for other purposes, most likely nuclear weapons." [HEU]
• Korea Should Go Nuclear
  Monday, May 5, 2014 Henry Temple, an eighteenth century British statesman, was once purported to have said, “We have no permanent allies, we have no permanent enemies, we only have permanent interests.” About two centuries later, that sentiment was echoed by Henry Kissinger who said “America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests.” I feel like as though there should be a "Game of Thrones" reference here. Image Source Despite all the rhetoric about special relationships, blood alliances, or teeth and lips, both men’s cold and calculating realpolitik is the true manual that dictates nation states’ foreign policy. With the exception of dyed-in-the-wool neo-conservatives (and not just the American variety) or those who have no hope of ever being elected into high office, most people are loathe to champion such a(n) amoral/realistic approach to foreign policy. Nations, of course, have varying goals such as military supremacy, economic development, environmental preservation, goodwill, peace, etc. However, if Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs can be used as an analogy, not all of a nation’s goals have the same level of priority. Before some of the loftier goals can be considered, every nation state must first secure one goal above all else – survival. And it is this basic need that causes the shifting sands of alliances. [Nuclearisation] [Sidelined]
• America’s Allies and Nuclear Arms: Assessing the Geopolitics of Nonproliferation in Asia
  By Robert Zarate | May 6, 2014 | Project 2049 Institute While U.S. policymakers and lawmakers sometimes deeply disagree on precisely how to stop hostile states from getting nuclear weapons, they generally agree on the overall goal of nuclear nonproliferation with regard to adversaries. But what about the goal of nonproliferation with regard to treaty allies? If Japan, South Korea, or other U.S. treaty allies in Asia who are threatened by China’s and North Korea’s growing nuclear and missile threats, were someday to insist on getting independent nuclear arsenals, should Washington welcome or oppose them? U.S. strategic thinking on this difficult and consequential question is at risk of becoming confused, and even counterproductive. Well-intentioned analysts today are wrongly framing America’s rejection or acceptance of potential nuclear proliferation by allies in Asia as a stark choice between nonproliferation or geopolitics. A spirited exchange in The National Interest illustrates the trend: [Japanese remilitarisation] [Nuclearisation]
• The ROK's Nuclear Energy Development and Spent Fuel Management Plans
  by Jungmin Kang 17 June 2014 Originally published 5 March 2014 for Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon, Republic of Korea. I. Status of and Prospects for Nuclear Power in the Republic of Korea One of the most rapidly growing developed countries in the world today, South Korea (the Republic of Korea, or ROK) has been increasingly relying on nuclear power since 1978, when it started its first commercial nuclear power plant. The ROK imported 96.0% of its primary energy resources (at a cost of 184.8 billion US dollars) from abroad in 2012, to compensate for its lack of domestic reserves.[1] This high level of imports is the energy supply security consideration driving the ROK’s reliance on nuclear power.As of February 2, 2014, the ROK had 23 power reactors in operation, with a total capacity of 20.7 GWe. [Nuclear energy] [Nuclear fuel cycle]
• N.Korea Has New 'Potentially Destabilizing' Cruise Missile
  A U.S. research group said a cruise missile appears to be the latest addition to North Korea's increasingly advanced arsenal. The U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University spotted the new missile in a brief shot buried within a North Korean military propaganda video. It said the cruise missile is a sea-based copy of the Russian-made, anti-ship Kh-35, which can be launched from ships, helicopters, or land. The institute, which published the findings on its 38 North blog, said Pyongyang most likely acquired the missile through direct sale from Russia. It said North Korea could have also obtained the cruise missile through a third party such as Burma, which is also known as Myanmar. Any such deal would be in violation of United Nations sanctions on North Korea's nuclear and missile programs. [Cruise missile] [Military balance]
• Translating a Noun into a Verb Pyongyang Style: The Case of North Korea’s New Cruise Missile
  By Jeffrey Lewis 16 June 2014 It looks like North Korea is now in the cruise missile business. Talk about translating a noun into a verb. Although most of our attention has been focused on the many kinds of ballistic missiles that North Korea builds, tests and too often sells, modern cruise missiles are a new and potentially destabilizing addition to North Korea’s missile arsenal. Rumors began circulating a week ago, starting with the Chosun Ilbo, that a North Korean propaganda film had surfaced showing a new cruise missile. I tracked down the film, entitled “????????? ??? ??? ????,” which it turns is available on social media websites like YouTube. It’s very long and features plenty of sweaty all-female artillery units, much to Kim Jong Un’s delight. The film also offers a very, very brief glimpse of the missile. Near the very end of the hour-long film, around 49:19, a North Korean ship launches a cruise missile. Did you miss it? The scene lasts for all of a second or so. Here are four stills showing the missile launching from what appears to be a ship. Images: KCTV. The video confirms a surprising fact: the cruise missile is a copy of the Russian-produced Kh-35. Here is a comparison with a photo of a Russian KH-35 being launched from an Indian ship. The two missiles appear to be externally identical. Image left: KCTV; image right: Indian Navy. The Kh-35 Uran is a sea-skimming anti-ship cruise missile similar to the French Exocet or US Harpoon. (Did you know that some people call the Kh-35 the Kharpunski—say it slowly. Harpoon-ski. It’s a joke. Get it?) As the name suggest, these cruise missiles fly at a very high speed just above the water’s surface in order to target ships. The Kh-35 is a relatively modern cruise missile developed during the 1980s and 1990s. You can watch a nice little animated video of virtual Kh-35s sinking virtual ships that gives you an idea of how they work. The Kh-35 also comes in land-based coastal defense batteries, a system called Bal. The Russians even have a helicopter carried variant. [Military balance] [Cruise missiles]
• Why North Korea may not have just developed a cruise missile
  North Korean media's track record seemingly ignored in 38 North analysis June 17th, 2014 Chad O'Carroll Has North Korea just entered “the cruise missile business“? Reading Jeffrey Lewis at 38 North on Tuesday, you might be persuaded to think so. Citing a few frames of low-resolution footage injected into a 49 minute film broadcast about DPRK military capabilities, Lewis “confirms a surprising fact” – that the missile seen in a recent North Korean video is a copy of the modern, Russian-made KH-35. Asking “Where did North Korea get the Kh-35,” Lewis speculates that Russia would be “the most likely candidate,” suggesting the “implication of new North Korean capabilities” means Washington now needs to “work more energetically to engage the North Koreans”. Lewis goes from first-class detective work in identifying the cruise missile – no easy feat – to pro-engagement policy recommendations for the White House, all based on under one second of video. But let’s not forget this is video broadcast by Korea Central TV (KCTV), an outlet well known for being part of a propaganda apparatus that is manipulative with facts, Photoshops material, and that even engages in historical revisionism. That’s a big omission to make, especially when considering there is nothing concrete in the several frames of footage to indicate the cruise missile was filmed flying anywhere near North Korea! [Cruise missile] [Media] [Inversion]
• North Korea’s Tonghae Launch Facility: Little Activity Spotted; No Launches Planned
  By 38 North 13 June 2014 A 38 North exclusive, with analysis by Nick Hansen. Summary Recent commercial satellite imagery of the Tonghae Satellite Launching Ground, North Korea’s oldest rocket test site, shows little or no activity related to either construction of new facilities that largely stalled in mid-2012 (a new launch pad, missile assembly building and launch control center) or the impending launch of a long-range rocket or satellite. According to imagery from May 31, 2014, minor construction has taken place over the past 10 weeks on a new launch pad for a rocket larger than the Unha Space Launch Vehicle (SLV) as well as on roads intended to serve the new facility. In addition, there is little or no activity at facilities used for the April 2009 Unha SLV launch, indicating that no rocket tests are planned for this summer. [SLV]
• Israel’s expensive and secretive nuclear weapons industry
  The nuclear threat to Israel’s economy One wonders if, under the nose of Israeli society, there hasn’t sprung up another predatory monster of wasteful spending, inflated salaries and sky-high pensions. Haaretz, By Uri Misgav | Jun. 9, 2014 Defense Ministry director general Dan Harel recently revealed that the 2014 outlay for “special means” is 4.5 billion shekels ($1.3 billion) and that it’s expected to grow next year by 600 million shekels. Haaretz Editor-in-Chief Aluf Benn, writing in this newspaper on June 3, derived from this information that in closed rooms, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu knows how to be decisive. But the emphasis shouldn’t be on the prime minister’s decision-making abilities, but on the closed rooms. Given these scary numbers, one suspects that the heavy veil of secrecy Israel imposes on its nuclear capabilities has nothing to do with security, but simply enables an absurd budget free-for-all. [Nuclear weapons] [MISCOM]
• U.S. Nearly Used Nukes During Viet Nam War
  by Marjorie Cohn We came dangerously close to nuclear war when the United States was fighting in Viet Nam, Pentagon Papers whistleblower Daniel Ellsberg told a reunion of the Stanford Anti-Viet Nam War Movement in May 2014. He said that in 1965, the Joint Chiefs assured President Lyndon B. Johnson that the war could be won, but it would take at least 500,000 to one million troops. The Joint Chiefs recommended hitting targets up to the Chinese border. Ellsberg suspects their real aim was to provoke China into responding. If the Chinese came in, the Joint Chiefs took for granted we would cross into China and use nuclear weapons to demolish the communists. Former President Dwight D. Eisenhower also recommended to Johnson that we use nuclear weapons in both North and South Viet Nam. Indeed, during the 1964 presidential campaign, Republican nominee Barry Goldwater argued for nuclear attacks as well. Johnson feared that the Joint Chiefs would resign and go public if Johnson didn’t follow at least some of their recommendation and he needed some Republican support for the “Great Society” and the “War on Poverty.” Fortunately, Johnson resisted their most extreme proposals, even though the Joint Chiefs regarded them as essential to success. Ellsberg cannot conclude that the antiwar movement shortened the war, but he says the movement put a lid on the war. If the president had done what the Joint Chiefs recommended, the movement would have grown even larger, but so would the war, much larger than it ever became. [Nuclear weapons] [Vietnam]
• UK government's secret list of 'probable nuclear targets' in 1970s released
  List of 106 cities, towns and military bases thought to be at risk of attack contained in documents shared by National Archives Rob Edwards The Guardian, Thursday 5 June 2014 15.16 BST Saxa Vord radar base on Unst in Shetland was believed to be a probable nuclear target in the 1970s Saxa Vord radar base on Unst in Shetland was one of the more remote UK regions believed to be a probable nuclear target in the early 1970s. Photograph: Murdo Macleod for the Guardian The UK government drew up a top secret list of 106 cities, towns and bases across the country seen as "probable nuclear targets" in the early 1970s, according to documents released by the National Archives. During the cold war, a list of the places thought likely to come under nuclear attack by the Soviet Union was agreed by military commanders, the intelligence services and the Cabinet Office under Conservative prime minister Edward Heath. Although most major cities were included, there were some notable omissions. Cambridge was on the target list but not Oxford; Bristol but not Brighton; and Edinburgh but not Aberdeen. [Nuclear weapons]
• Why Did North Korea Build Nukes While South Korea Foreswore Them?
  The conventional military balance on the Korean Peninsula best explains North and South Korea’s nuclear trajectories. By Zachary Keck May 10, 2014 For those interested in why some states seek nuclear weapons while others foreswear them, the Korean Peninsula presents an interesting case study. Both South Korea and North Korea have sought nuclear weapons; however, Seoul would abandon its nuclear pursuit while Pyongyang continues on a nuclear trajectory. Why did they take such different nuclear paths? I would argue that this is best explained by the shifting conventional military balance on the Korean Peninsula between the 1960s and today. Despite some earlier very basic atomic research activities, North Korea’s nuclear program didn’t start making much progress until the late 1970s, when it expanded its atomic cooperation with the Soviet Union. Nonetheless, it was during the 1980s and early 1990s when North Korea made the bulk of its indigenous nuclear progress. Indeed, by the time the first North Korean nuclear crisis ended in 1994, many believed that Pyongyang had enough reprocessed plutonium for a couple of nuclear devices. [Nuclear weapons] [Military balance]

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MAY 2014

• Notes on Nuclear Weapons: Toward Abolition or Armageddon?
  May. 26, 2014 Yuki Tanaka People still clearly remember that on April 5, 2009 the U.S. President Barack Obama excited an audience in Prague by declaring that his government “will take concrete steps towards a world without nuclear weapons.” As the only nuclear power to have ever used a nuclear weapon, he said, the United States has a moral responsibility to act. Indeed, the U.S. has not only moral responsibility but also legal responsibility for the victims as the nation that committed a crime against humanity by indiscriminately killing tens of thousands of people and causing lifelong radiation sickness to many survivors. In his speech, Obama also added ‘this goal will not be reached quickly –- perhaps not in my lifetime.’ Clearly, this goal will never be reached if the U.S. continues to spend ever larger sums on nuclear weapons, overshadowing all other nuclear powers, as the Obama Administration has been doing since the speech in Prague. On April 29 this year, at the Third Meeting of the Preparatory Committee for the 2015 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference in New York, Under Secretary Rose Gottemoeller stated in her speech: ‘Indeed, it is the United States’ deep understanding of the consequences of nuclear weapons’ use – including the devastating health effects – that has guided and motivated our efforts to reduce and ultimately eliminate these most hazardous weapons.’ [Nuclear weapons] [Disarmament]
• Update on North Korea’s Sohae Satellite Launching Station: Rapid Construction of Possible New Launch Complex
  By 38 North 20 May 2014 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Nick Hansen and Jack Liu. Summary New commercial satellite imagery from May 10, 2014, indicates that North Korea is conducting a number of important construction projects at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station (“Tongchang-ri”). While it is too soon to make a definitive judgment on their purpose, one working hypothesis is that the North is building a new complex to conduct future training and launches for mobile missiles such as the KN-08 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).[1] Moreover, that hypothesis is consistent with ongoing KN-08 engine tests being conducted Sohae’s rocket engine test stand, where a probable KN-08 first stage is currently seen on the stand, possibly left there after early April 2014 tests or for use in the future. [SLV] [Missiles]
• Nuclear Weapons Modernization: A Threat to the NPT?
  Hans M. Kristensen Nearly half a century after the five declared nuclear-weapon states in 1968 pledged under the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) to “pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament,”[1] all of the world’s nuclear-weapon states are busy modernizing their arsenals and continue to reaffirm the importance of such weapons. None of them appears willing to eliminate its nuclear weapons in the foreseeable future. Granted, the nuclear arms race that was a main feature of the Cold War is over, and France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States have reduced their arsenals significantly. Nevertheless, huge arsenals remain, especially in Russia and the United States. China, India, North Korea, Pakistan, and possibly Israel are increasing their stockpiles, although at levels far below those of Russia and the United States. All nuclear-armed states speak of nuclear weapons as an enduring and indefinite aspect of national and international security. [NPT] [Nuclear weapons]
• N. Korea ICBM engine tests stoke nuclear fears
  by Staff Writers Seoul (AFP) May 02, 2014 North Korea has been testing engines for an inter-continental ballistic missile, a US think-tank said Friday, as Pyongyang announced a top military reshuffle that coincided with signs of a looming nuclear test. The US-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University said satellite images of the North's Sohae rocket launch site suggested one "and maybe more" recent tests on the engine of what is probably the first stage of a road-mobile ICBM called the KN-08. It was the latest in a series of similar tests -- dating back to mid-2013 -- on a missile with a targeted range of up to 11,000 kilometers (6,800 miles), the institute said on its closely followed website, 38 North. [Rocketry]
• Why a Nuclear Test May Not Be Imminent: Update on North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site
  By 38 North 13 May 2014 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Nick Hansen and Jack Liu For the past month, the international community has been on edge expecting a fourth North Korean nuclear test, which the South Korean Foreign Minister recently characterized as a “game changer.” The high level of anxiety has been the result of a stream of warnings emanating largely from the ROK Ministry of Defense and parroted by various news media, predicting a test would occur during President Barack Obama’s visit to South Korea. Of course, that visit came and went without a blast and warnings since then from Seoul as well as leaks to the press have also come up short. Interested observers would be justified in asking themselves: “What is going on here?” It is worth noting that since early April there has been an increased level of activity at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site visible in commercial satellite imagery used by non-government analysts, specifically in the South Portal area where it is suspected there are two completed test tunnels. There has been stepped up movements of vehicles and crates, and boxes have appeared and disappeared near tunnel entrances, all consistent with possible test preparations. [Test]
• Security Requirements in Northeast Asia
  by John On-Fat Wong 14 May 2014 I. INTRODUCTION by Peter Hayes In 1982, John on-fat Wong wrote a dissertation at the University of Wisconsin that posited that every state in Northeast Asia had gone nuclear. He examines four geopolitical scenarios (1990) for Northeast Asia: general détente, limited bilateral détente, new cold war, and general cold war. The inevitable lack of a secure retaliatory capacity on the part of small states suggests that a generalized nuclear veto-system based on universal proliferation in Northeast Asia would be prone to pre-emptive strike in the search by some states for damage limitation. Wong points out that the relationship between two small nuclear armed states—as would be the case, for example, if both Koreas became nuclear-armed—would be one of mutual vulnerability as neither would have a secure nuclear retaliatory force, and both would have relatively concentrated and easily targeted industry and populations. Writes Wong: “Given the vulnerability of the small power and its nuclear forces, enemy destruction is more “probable” than “assured.” This condition of pre-emptive instability suggests that among the small powers, “mutual vulnerability” or “mutual probable destruction” is a much more appropriate description of their strategic relationship than “mutual assured destruction.” [Nuclear weapons] [Deterrence]
• “Mutual Probable Destruction”: Nuclear Next-Use in a Nuclear-Armed East Asia?
  by Peter Hayes 14 May 2014 I. Introduction Peter Hayes, Director of Nautilus Institute, writes that John on-fat Wong’s 1982 dissertation, Security Requirements in Northeast Asia, provides an important corrective for this shallow thinking that informs calls for South Korea and Japan to proliferate nuclear weapons to match those of North Korea or the existing nuclear weapons states in the region. Wong concludes of small states such as the two Koreas in a world where all states are nuclear-armed that: “Given the vulnerability of the small power and its nuclear forces, enemy destruction is more “probable” than “assured.” This condition of pre-emptive instability suggests that among the small powers, “mutual vulnerability” or “mutual probable destruction” is a much more appropriate description of their strategic relationship than “mutual assured destruction.” II. Policy forum: “Mutual Probable Destruction”: Nuclear Next-Use in a Nuclear-Armed East Asia? Every now and then, scholars of nuclear war stumble across an unknown analysis of superb logic and startling clarity. Here is such a discovery. It is essential reading for anyone interested in the logical implications of the calls in some quarters for South Korea and Japan to proliferate nuclear weapons to match those of North Korea or the existing nuclear weapons states in the region. For the most part, these calls are more political in nature than well thought through. This study provides an important corrective for this shallow thinking. [Nuclear weapons] [Deterrence]
• 'NK ready to launch nuclear missile'
  By Yi Whan-woo North Korea can launch nuclear missiles within two days once its leader Kim Jong-un orders it, according to a British think tank. In a report released by the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Monday, the London-based Chatham House said Pyongang also seems capable of making up to eight nuclear weapons. “Were Kim to order the launching of nuclear weapons, it would take one to two days to arm the weapons,” the think tank said. “It (North Korea) is thought to possess enough fissile material for approximately eight nuclear weapons and to have a highly centralized command-and-control system.” [Intelligence] [Nuclear weapons] [Media] [Heading]
• Too Close for Comfort: Cases of Near Nuclear Use and Options for Policy
  Chatham House Report Patricia Lewis, Heather Williams, Benoît Pelopidas and Sasan Aghlani, April 2014 Download paper here Nuclear weapons have not been detonated in violent conflict since 1945. The decades since then are commonly perceived – particularly in those countries that possess nuclear weapons – as an era of successful nuclear non-use and a vindication of the framework of nuclear deterrence. In this narrative, the fear of massive retaliation and a shared understanding and set of behaviours are believed to have prevented the use of nuclear weapons. Yet the decades since 1945 have been punctuated by a series of disturbing close calls. Evidence from many declassified documents, testimonies and interviews suggests that the world has, indeed, been lucky, given the number of instances in which nuclear weapons were nearly used inadvertently as a result of miscalculation or error. A shared belief in nuclear deterrence is not the only plausible explanation for this avoidance of nuclear war. Rather, individual decision-making, often in disobedience of protocol and political guidance, has on several occasions saved the day. Whereas the popularized image of the ‘Moscow–Washington hotline’ gives the illusion that vital communication in times of crisis is possible, these incidents reveal the reality that those who possess nuclear weapons will continue to be distrustful of one another and remain reliant on data transmitted by systems that are vulnerable to error or misjudgment, particularly when leaders have to respond too quickly to be able to make fully informed decisions. [Nuclear weapons]
• Satellite Spots Preparations for N.Korean Nuke Test
  A U.S. military satellite has detected "imminent signs" of a fresh North Korean nuclear test, CNN quoted a senior Defense Department official as saying Monday. The Pentagon official said the satellite last weekend photographed a tarpaulined tunnel entrance at a nuclear test site in Punggye-ri, North Hamgyong Province. This could be an attempt to prevent the surveillance satellite from spying on the process of preparing for an underground nuclear test. [Test]
• Illustrative Assessment of the Risk of Radiological Release from an Accident at the DPRK LWR at Yongbyon
  by David F. von Hippel and Peter Hayes 6 May 2014 The Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability I. INTRODUCTION The March 11, 2011 Sendai earthquake and resulting tsunami, in addition to causing tragic loss of life in Japan, triggered a series of events at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant that resulted in the release of radioactive materials in the area around the plant and extending out to sea.[1] But for (mostly) favorable winds, heavily populated areas nearby might have received more significant doses of radioactivity.[2] The slow-motion accident at Fukushima, watched anxiously for months by people around the world,[3] was triggered by the tsunami, but was exacerbated by choices in reactor design and management made, in some cases, many decades before the event. In particular, at Fukushima, the BWR (boiling water reactor) reactor design that placed pools for storing spent nuclear fuel in the same building with and above the reactor vessel, sharing key utilities, and “dense packing” of the spent fuel pools to allow them to accommodate more spent fuel, could have increased both the risk of radiation releases, and the amount of radioactivity ultimately released at Fukushima.[4] [LWR]
• Update on Punggye-ri: Stepped Up Activity at West Portal, Drawdown at the South Portal
  By 38 North 02 May 2014 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Nick Hansen and Jack Liu. New commercial satellite imagery from May 1, 2014 indicates a significant increase in activity in the West Portal area of North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site related to the excavation of a new test tunnel begun one year ago. At the same time, there appears to be a drawdown in activity in the South Portal area, believed to be the likely location of North Korea’s next nuclear test. Specifically: [Test]
• New Developments at North Korea’s Sohae Complex
  By 38 North 01 May 2014 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Nick Hansen. Summary Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates that North Korea is conducting a number of significant activities at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station (“Tongchang-ri”) related to the development of larger space launch vehicles (SLVs) and long-range ballistic missiles. Specifically, these activities are: [SLV] [Missiles]
• April passes with no North Korean nuclear test
  Posted on : May.1,2014 14:21 KST Modified on : May.1,2014 14:21 KST In this photo published in the Apr. 30 edition of the Rodong Sinmun newspaper, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visits the workers’ quarters of the Kim Jong-suk Textile Mill in Pyongyang, accompanied by Hwang Pyong-so, who was recently promoted to vice-marshal. (Yonhap News) Moving ahead, N. Korea is likely to keep tensions at a low-boil through military exercises By Choi Hyun-june, staff reporter and Park Hyun, Washington correspondent April passed without the fourth North Korean nuclear test that the South Korean Ministry of National Defense and other security and intelligence agencies had been predicting. But signs still point to tensions drawing out into the long term, with North Korea seemingly holding off on the issue of nuclear testing. While the likelihood of an imminent test has decreased, the North is unlikely to give up the test option for good. In an Apr. 29 statement, a North Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson wrote, “With the United States driving the clouds of nuclear war toward us, we intend to continue unswervingly on the path of a stronger nuclear deterrent.” “There is no expiration date on our statement of March 30, when we declared that a new type of nuclear test could not be ruled out,” the statement continued. [Test]
• North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: April 29 Update
  By 38 North 30 April 2014 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu New commercial satellite imagery from April 29, 2014 shows that a high level of activity continues at North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site, probably related to preparations for an underground nuclear test. The imagery indicates: [Test]

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APRIL 2014

• Update on North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: Test Preparation Continues
  By 38 North 27 April 2014 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Nick Hansen and Jack Liu. New commercial satellite imagery from April 25, 2014 confirms a further increase of activity at North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site likely related to preparations for an underground nuclear test.[1] However, it is unclear from the imagery whether any test tunnels have been sealed, a sign that a test may be imminent, as claimed by South Korean sources in press briefings on April 25. Imagery from April 25 indicates that the pace of movement of vehicles and equipment near tunnel entrances in the South Portal area has increased consistent with what would be expected during pre-test preparations.[2] The number of crates and boxes near the entrances that may contain equipment related to a test has increased. Moreover, it appears the equipment is being moved into the tunnels since the numbers of crates and boxes as well as their positions have changed in the six-day period from April 19 to April 25. Finally, a panel truck in the area appears to be in the process of unloading boxes and crates since they are visible around the vehicle.[3] [Test]
• N.Korea 'Expands Uranium Enrichment Facility'
  North Korea "could now be concentrating on installing equipment and even centrifuges inside the expanded building" of the Yongbyon uranium enrichment facility in North Pyongan Province, experts said Wednesday. The speculation comes in a report by the Institute for Science and International Security, a nuclear security think tank in Washington. "In August 2013… North Korea had been expanding its gas centrifuge plant at Yongbyon, therefore potentially doubling its enrichment capacity… This could signify that the expansion is outwardly finished and that North Korea could now be concentrating on installing equipment and even centrifuges inside the expanded building," it said. [Uranium]
• Update on North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site
  By 38 North 24 April 2014 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu. New commercial satellite imagery indicates additional activity at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site probably related to preparations for a detonation. Imagery from April 23, 2014 shows: [Test]
• S. Korean gov’t and US institute with different analyses on N. Korean nuke test
  Posted on : Apr.24,2014 11:38 KST Modified on : Apr.24,2014 15:56 KST A comparison of satellite from Apr. 6 and Apr. 19 by the website 38 North shows Punggye Village Nuclear Test Site with increased vehicle and equipment activity, but concludes that an imminent “may be possible but appears unlikely.” (DigitalGlobe-38 North/Newsis) Differing assessments of N. Korea’s activities make Seoul’s disclosure of intelligence seem premature By Park Byong-su, senior staff writer and Park Hyun, Washington correspondent The South Korean government and a US research institute are offering different analyses on the possibility of a fourth North Korean nuclear test. The South Korean Ministry of National Defense has concluded that recent activities at the test site in Punggye Village means another test is “imminent,” while the US website 38 North, which specializes in North Korea-related issues, said the North was most likely either engaged in repair or maintenance or in only the earliest stages of preparation for a test. [test]
• N.Korea 'Improves Nuclear Technology'
  Signs that North Korea may be preparing for another nuclear test have once again led to feverish speculation what the North is or is not capable of. The Defense Ministry here claimed Wednesday that the North appears to have improved its capacity to miniaturize nuclear warheads so they can be fitted on to missiles. The nuclear payload needs to be reduced to less than 1,000 kg and the diameter to less than 90 cm to fit on a missile. The ministry based its claim on assessment from South Korean and U.S. intelligence services. "The North has reduced the nuclear payload to about 1,500 kg, but not less than 1,000 kg, which means that its nuclear weapons aren't warfare-ready yet," a ministry spokesman said. "But we presume that the North’s three previous nuclear tests have enabled it to improve technology to increase nuclear yield and make the payload smaller." Meanwhile, experts said it seems unlikely that the North will conduct a nuclear test to coincide with U.S. President Barack Obama’s visit to Seoul this Friday and Saturday. Based on "limited commercial satellite imagery," specialist website 38 North at Johns Hopkins University said recent operations at the test site in Punggye-ri, North Hamgyong Province "have not reached the high level of intensity -- in terms of vehicle, personnel and equipment movement -- that occurred in the weeks prior to past detonations. Moreover, other possible indicators present before the North Korean nuclear tests in 2009 and 2013… have not been spotted." [Test] [Military balance] [Intelligence]
• N.Korea Poised for Major Operation
  South Korean officials are increasingly convinced that North Korea is getting ready for another nuclear test amid brisk activity at its test site in Punggye-ri, North Hamgyong Province. In a press briefing here on Tuesday, Defense Ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok said, "We're detecting signs of various movements at the nuclear test site. It seems that the North can conduct a nuclear test at any time." Kim quoted reports that North Korean officials are talking internally about an imminent "big thing" before April 30, though it is unclear whether this could be a nuclear test or a provocation near the front line. Where these reports came from is unclear since they were not found in the North Korean state media. It would be unprecedented for officials here to disclose information gained through intercepts or intelligence sources. The ministry and Joint Chiefs of Staff put a taskforce on round-the-clock duty on Monday in case the North plans a provocation to coincide with U.S. President Barack Obama's visit to Seoul on Friday and Saturday. The taskforce led by a two-star general consists of senior staff at the ministry and the JCS. "In the past, the North used delaying tactics or deception after it made preparations for a nuclear test, so we're keeping that in mind," a military source said. [Test] [Prediction] [Provocation]
• [Editorial] Test or no test, let’s be proactive on solving N. Korea nuclear issue
  Posted on : Apr.23,2014 11:34 KST On Apr. 22, the South Korean government announced signs that North Korea is preparing for another nuclear test at its test site in Punggye Village, North Hamgyong Province. More specifically, there could be a provocation of some kind around April 25. That’s the day President Park Geun-hye meets with US President Barack Obama for a summit in Seoul, and it’s also the anniversary of the establishment of the Korean People’s Army and the last day of the Max Thunder joint aerial training exercise between the US and South Korea. North Korea should not conduct another nuclear test. Hard-liners in Pyongyang may think that advancing their nuclear technology through tests puts them at a more advantageous position in their foreign relations. If so, they are gravely mistaken. Another nuclear test would lead to sanctions from the international community, which would be qualitatively different from the sanctions seen to date. China, which has so far been a channel connecting North Korea with that community, will have no choice but to join in the powerful pressure. Pyongyang is likely to find itself further isolated, and lose any opportunity for a dialogue-based solution to issues that involve it. North Korea’s people and administration stand to suffer more than anyone when tensions rise on the peninsula. [Test] [Sanctions]
• Pyongyang could be prepping nuke test before Obama’s visit
  Posted on : Apr.23,2014 15:27 KST Not yet clear if N. Korea is really planning to hold a test, or bluffing to protest political situation By Choi Hyun-june and Kim Oi-hyun, staff reporters With US President Barack Obama set to visit South Korea on Apr. 25-26, North Korea is stepping up its preparations for another nuclear test. But opinions about whether Pyongyang will actually carry out a test are divided, not only among experts but also inside the South Korean government. First of all, the fact that North Korea is showing signs that it might conduct a fourth nuclear test, one year after the previous test in Feb. 2013, is evidence that the North Korean nuclear diplomacy of its neighbors, including South Korea, the US, and China, has failed. This is because North Korea’s preparations for a nuclear test run counter to efforts to resume the six-party talks. Indeed, from February until recently, North Korea’s neighbors had by all appearances been engaged in a flurry of diplomatic activity about the North’s nukes: Chinese diplomat Wu Dawei visited Pyongyang and Washington, the leaders of South Korea, the US, and Japan had a trilateral summit and their six-party talks envoys held deliberations. But there is no sign that these efforts led to any substantial progress. No compromise was found between the opposing positions of North Korea and China, who call for the unconditional resumption of the six-party talks, and South Korea and the US, who insist that Pyongyang must first show its sincerity by taking steps toward denuclearization. [Test]
• N.Korea 'Almost Ready' for Fresh Nuke Test
  South Korean and U.S. intelligence agencies have detected signs that North Korea is preparing for a fourth nuclear test. "There has been a very brisk movement of vehicles and people in and around the Punggye-ri nuclear test site," a government source here said on Monday. "We're keeping a close watch on their movements." "It doesn't look like the North is going to conduct a nuclear test in a day or two, but I don't think it's physically impossible for the North, if it has the political will, to do it to coincide" with U.S. President Barack Obama's visit to South Korea on Friday and Saturday, another source said. [Test]
• Is North Korea planning a fourth nuclear test?
  Posted on : Apr.22,2014 15:44 KST Heightened activity at test site could be a show to grab attention before Obama’s visit to Seoul this week By Kim Oi-hyun, staff reporter Something is afoot at Punggye Village in Kilju County, North Hamkyong Province, the site where North Korea has conducted three previous nuclear tests. Photographic evidence indicates that traffic at the site has been rapidly increasing recently. “Activity is increasing around the nuclear test site at Punggye Village. This is a different level of movement than before,” said a South Korean military officer on condition of anonymity on Apr. 21. “By analyzing satellite footage, South Korean and American intelligence authorities have detected a major buildup in vehicle movement from about a month ago,” another anonymous government official said. [Test]
• New Developments at North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site
  By 38 North 22 April 2014 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu. Summary Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates that Pyongyang has begun new operations at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site. In the six-week period from early March 2014 until April 19, imagery shows an increase in activities at the Main Support Area. This area was used to manage operations and handle personnel and equipment during preparations at the West Portal area for the February 2013 nuclear detonation as well as at the South Portal area, where there are two completed tunnels. In particular, there appears to be movement of crates, boxes and materials near the entrances, possibly into the tunnels. Recent press speculation has focused on the possibility of a nuclear detonation during US President Barack Obama’s upcoming visit to Seoul on April 24-25. That may be possible but appears unlikely based on the limited commercial satellite imagery available and observations of past North Korean nuclear tests. Recent operations at Punggye-ri have not reached the high level of intensity—in terms of vehicle, personnel and equipment movement—that occurred in the weeks prior to past detonations. Moreover, other possible indicators present before the North Korean nuclear tests in 2009 and 2013, such as communications vans and a satellite dish intended to transmit pre-test data, have not been spotted. [Test]
• Little progress made by US and China on resuming six-party talks
  Posted on : Apr.17,2014 16:22 KST Wu Dawei (left), China‘s special representative for North Korea policy and Glyn Davies, US Special Representative for North Korea policy Progress toward resumption stuck on US insistence on N. Korea’s sincere steps toward denuclearization By Park Hyun, Washington correspondent The chief negotiators for the US and Chinese delegations to the six-party talks held a second day of meetings in New York on Apr. 15, but it appears that they have not settled their differences about how to resume the six-party talks. Glyn T. Davies, the US State Department’s special representative for North Korea Policy, and Wu Dawei, China’s Special Representative for Korean Peninsula Affairs and envoy to the six-party talks, met at the US mission to the UN for about three hours on the afternoon of the previous day, but only for two hours on Apr. 15. [Six Party Talks] [Preconditions]
• Radiation and the Ronald Reagan
  I have an article in the current CounterPunch print edition (Subscribe!NOW! ) concerning the contamination of the US aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan by Fukushima fallout during the post-tsunami relief operations in 2011. The Ronald Reagan is in the news because several dozen crewmembers of the Reagan are trying to sue TEPCO, the Tokyo Electric Power Corporation, for concealing the radiation release and thereby damaging their health (unsurprisingly, members of the armed services are precluded from suing the US military for damage to their health, so redress must be sought elsewhere). I try to tiptoe between the two extremes of radiation alarmism and, I guess, radio-blasé-ism, but in the end I come down on the side that the contamination was pretty serious. [Radiation]
• Russian nuclear forces, 2014
  Hans M Kristensen Robert S Norris Russia has taken important steps in modernizing its nuclear forces since early 2013, including the continued development and deployment of new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), construction of ballistic missile submarines, and development of a new strategic bomber. As of March 2013, the authors estimate, Russia had a military stockpile of approximately 4,300 nuclear warheads, of which roughly 1,600 strategic warheads were deployed on missiles and at bomber bases. Another 700 strategic warheads are in storage along with roughly 2,000 nonstrategic warheads. A large number—perhaps 3,500—of retired but still largely intact warheads await dismantlement. [Nuclear weapons]
• Nuclear Safety Problems at North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Facility?
  By 38 North 07 April 2014 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Nick Hansen. Summary Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates that North Korea may have experienced problems ensuring an adequate water supply essential for the operation of reactor cooling systems at the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center. These difficulties resulted from the extensive rainfall and subsequent flooding in July 2013, which moved the main channel in the Kuryong River away from the water supply, filled the collection cisterns and ponds with sand and possibly destroyed pipes leading to them that had been laid along the river bottom. Because of these difficulties: [LWR]
• Trident renewal support lowest among 18-35-year-olds
  Survey by WMD Awareness suggests 6% of voters believe defence spending should be a priority over the next 10 years Richard Norton-Taylor The Guardian, Tuesday 8 April 2014 An unarmed Trident missile fired from HMS Vigilant during a test launch in the Atlantic in 2012. Photograph: Lockheed Martin/MoD/PA UK adults who have grown up after the cold war are strongly opposed to a like-for-like renewal of the Trident nuclear missile system and only a small fraction believe spending on defence should be a priority over the next 10 years, according to a poll. Thirty-three per cent of over-35-year-olds believe the UK's weapon system should be renewed to maintain its size and capacity. Support among 18-35s is even lower at 19%. Only 38% agree with the proposition that nuclear weapons protect countries that possess them from modern threats such as terrorism, and just 6% believe spending on defence should be the government's priority over the next 10 years. [Nuclear weapons]
• U.S., S. Korean Authorities' Anti-DPRK Moves Condemned
  Pyongyang, April 7 (KCNA) -- As already known, the south Korean puppet warmongers recently opened to public the fact that they conducted a ballistic missile test-fire with a range of 500 km. They are talking nonsense that they will develop a missile with longer range next year and then they will be able to put the whole area of the northern half of Korea within the striking range. And while they are opening to public the fact that they newly formed a missile command in the south Korean puppet army, they are vociferating that their command is to "cope with the strategic force command of the north" and will "play a key role in building a 'south Korean style missile defense system.'" The spokesman for the Academy of the National Defence Science said in a statement issued on Monday in this regard that this is an unpardonable grave provocation against the DPRK and a challenge to the public at home and abroad aspiring for the detente on the Korean peninsula. The statement went on: The DPRK has developed and had access to diversified various type missiles to cope with the U.S. moves to ignite nuclear war against the north but has never aimed at hurting the compatriots and talked about attacking the whole area of south Korea. As the DPRK's powerful missile forces are a self-defensive deterrent to cope with the U.S. moves for aggression, their main target is the U.S. bringing the danger of the nuclear war to the Korean nation and the military bases of the U.S. imperialist aggressor forces under any circumstances. It is for firmly defending the sovereignty and dignity of the nation to consistently hold fast to the line of simultaneously pushing forward building of an economic power while bolstering up the national defence capability centered on the nuclear force. It is none other than the U.S. that instigates and supports the development of ballistic missiles of the south Korean puppet forces. The U.S. helps the south Korean puppet forces in every way such as lifting restrictions on range and warhead weight and transferring its technology while inspiring them to develop ballistic missiles in order to use them effectively as a shock brigade for a war of aggression. The double-dealing and hypocritical nature of the U.S. was more saliently revealed by the south Korean puppet forces' test-fire of its ballistic missile behind the curtain of the anti-DPRK missile racket under the U.S. patronage and backing. As the U.S. and the south Korean regime felt guilty, hit hard by the answer given by the spokesman for the Strategic Force of the KPA laying bare their despicable nature, they kept mum about their criminal development of missiles and made much fuss about what they called drones in a foolish bid to divert the public attention elsewhere. However, such a trite conspiratorial racket is not workable on anyone in this bright world. They are in such awkward position that they can no longer take issue with the DPRK over its launch of ballistic missiles and the UN Security Council, too, has no reason to blame it. It is needless to say that the DPRK's self-defensive deterrence such as nukes and ballistic missiles can never become subjects for negotiations as long as the U.S. persists in nuclear threat to the DPRK and its moves to invade the DPRK. [Ballistic missiles] [Hostility]
• S.Korea Test-Fires 500-km Ballistic Missile
  The military here has succeeded in test-firing a new homegrown ballistic missile with a range of about 500 km, putting almost all of North Korea within range from the central part of the country. Currently, the longest range for a South Korean ballistic missile is 300 km, so its strike capability against the North will improve significantly. "Late last month, a new homegrown missile with a range of about 500 km developed by the Agency for Defense Development was test-launched on the west coast," a government source said Thursday. "The missile hit the target and the test was considered successful." It was observed by Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin and other top brass. The missile was test-launched at a reduced range since there is nowhere on the west coast from where the maximum range can be achieved. The new missile has a payload of 1 ton, about double the payload of the 300-km Hyunmu-2 ballistic missile and powerful enough to strike strategic targets in the North like underground command posts or missile bases. The military is expected to deploy it warfare-ready next year. [Ballistic Missiles] [US dominance]
• S. Korea test-fires ballistic missile capable of striking North
  South Korea successfully test-fired its new ballistic missile capable of striking all parts of North Korea last month and plans to deploy it starting next year to bolster its defense, a military source said Friday. The state-funded Agency for Defense Development (ADD) on March 23 tested the ballistic missile with a range of 500 kilometers and a payload of 1 ton at a firing range in Taean, South Chungcheong Province, which was observed by senior military officials. "The missiles accurately hit the intended target," the official said, asking for anonymity. South Korea currently operates 300-km Hyunmoo ballistic missiles, and has been developing longer range missiles to beef up its defense against Pyongyang under a new missile deal with the United States. The guideline revised in October 2012 allows Seoul to extend the maximum range of its ballistic missiles from 300 km to 800 km. [Ballistic missile] [US dominance]
• North Korean Nukes 2.0?
  By Jeffrey Lewis 04 April 2014 Last weekend, North Korea responded to a UN Security Council condemnation of its missile launches by warning of “next-stage steps which the enemy can hardly imagine,” including “a new form of nuclear test for bolstering up its nuclear deterrence.” Golly, that sounds awfully hostile. A “new form” of nuclear test? My thoughts immediately turned toward Pyongyang’s next step in its nuclear weapons development. Pyongyang might test a device using highly enriched uranium, if they haven’t done that already, or start down the path toward tactical nuclear weapons or perhaps burning thermonuclear fuel. It is hard to know Pyongyang’s near- and long-term technical goals for its nuclear arsenal, although I suspect they have such goals. The original Korean, however, suggests that something new about how North Korea tests, not what it tests. After checking with a number of Korean speakers, the Korean phraseappears to refer to a new form of testing, as opposed to simply a new device. [Test]
• “Safety First—Not One Accident Can Occur”: Nuclear Safety and North Korea’s Quest to Build a Light Water Reactor
  By Niko Milonopoulos and Edward D. Blandford 03 April 2014 In 2010, when the first Americans were allowed to visit North Korea’s new experimental light water reactor (ELWR), among the signs located at the construction site, one stood out to the group. It was a warning: “Safety first—not one accident can occur!”[1] Early in the construction of the reactor, North Korea appeared to be making a visible effort to ensure safety was a top priority. However, available evidence since then raises doubts as to whether the North’s engineers can achieve the goal proclaimed on that sign. This concern was echoed as South Korean President Park Guen-hye, in her statement at the 2014 Nuclear Security Summit in The Hague last week, warned, “North Korea’s Yongbyon is home to such a dense concentration of nuclear facilities that a fire in a single building could lead to a disaster potentially worse than Chernobyl.” Yet, this claim, which was first made in a recent study by a South Korean physicist,[2] has not been critically evaluated using available, and known, information about North Korea’s past practices in reactor operation and construction, and the technical capacity of the reactors at the Yongbyon site. [LWR] [Safety] [Hostility]
• N.Korea Threatens Another Nuclear Test
  North Korea on Sunday threatened to conduct another nuclear test after international criticism over its firing of two ballistic missiles. The North Korean Foreign Ministry accused the UN Security Council of "provoking" Pyongyang by criticizing the missile launch and said, "We would not rule out a new form of nuclear test for bolstering up our nuclear deterrence." [test] [Response] [Joint US military] [UNUS]

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MARCH 2014

• NCKU makes rocket launch breakthrough
  A hybrid rocket designed by National Cheng Kung University is launched March 20 at the Shalun Farm test site in Tainan City, southern Taiwan. (Courtesy of NCKU) •Publication Date:03/26/2014 •Source: Taiwan Today An interdisciplinary team from Taiwan’s National Cheng Kung University successfully launched two small rockets at a testing ground near Tainan City in the south of the country, scoring breakthroughs in GPS technology and multistage rocket decoupling, NCKU announced March 25. The team, led by professor Juang Jyh-ching of Tainan City-based NCKU’s Department of Electrical Engineering and supported by the rocket and satellite program of the ROC Ministry of Science and Technology, launched and recovered two small hybrid rockets March 20 at Shalun Farm in the city. Following the success, the team said it will attempt to launch a 1,000-kilogram rocket to a height of 30 kilometers in May. Many countries are currently researching hybrid rockets because of their low cost, greater safety and environmental friendliness, NCKU said. The university’s Aerospace Science and Technology Research Center and Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics have already had notable successes in developing this field. [Rocket]
• N.Korea Hints at 4th Nuke Test
  North Korea on Monday hinted at the possibility of another nuclear test, saying it may take further steps to demonstrate its "nuclear deterrent." Ri Tong-il /AP-Newsis Ri Tong-il /AP-Newsis In a press conference at UN headquarters in New York on Monday, Pyongyang's deputy chief of mission to the UN Ri Tong-il accused the U.S. of continuing "hostile" policies aimed at heightening tensions on the Korean Peninsula and undermining the North even after it put forth "important proposals," including suspension of cross-border vilification. The North has taken umbrage at recent sharp UN condemnation of its human rights abuses. Ri warned unless the U.S. stops "nuclear threats" against the North, the regime will have to take additional measures to display its "nuclear deterrent." He said the North's recent launches of short-range rockets and ballistic missiles were a self-defensive, routine exercise. They coincided with annual South Korea-U.S. military drills in the region. Ri countered UN condemnation of human rights abuses in the North with the claim that South Korean agents are kidnapping North Koreans in the Chinese border areas, brainwashing them, and using them for propaganda purposes. The UN condemnation was nothing but "a preposterous fuss" forming part of the U.S. overall hostile policy, he added. Meanwhile, in a report on March 3, the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government singled out North Korea as a nuclear proliferation risk, warning of the danger of the regime supplying or selling nuclear weapons or materials to terrorists. Nuclear materials and weapons stockpiles are increasing in the North, Prof. Matthew Bunn says in the report, and leader Kim Jong-un could be tempted to sell them to terrorists if his regime is under threat. [Nuclear terrorism] [Test]
• North Korea’s Nuclear and Rocket Test Sites: Activity Continues but No Sign of Test Preparations
  By 38 North 20 March 2014 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Nick Hansen and Jack Liu. Summary Recent commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s nuclear and rocket test sites indicates that while activities continue, there is no evidence to suggest preparations for impending nuclear or long-range rocket tests. ?Excavation continues on a new tunnel in the West Portal area of the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site, but there is little or no activity at other key parts of the facility. ?Construction continues at the gantry and launch pad at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station (Tongchang-ri) where two launches of the Unha rocket were conducted in 2012. Work will not likely be complete for several months. ?There is no test-related activity at the Tonghae Satellite Launching Ground (Musudan-ri), which was last used for testing in 2009. However, a large amount of building material has arrived indicating construction will soon resume on the new assembly building. While there are no signs of impending tests, activities at the three facilities indicate that Pyongyang is increasing its ability to conduct future tests. In the case of Punggye-ri, the North is expanding the number of tunnels available for future nuclear tests. In the case of its rocket launch sites, construction at Sohae and Tonghae is intended to enable those facilities to handle larger rockets, and possibly mobile missiles, in the future. [SLV] [Test] [Missile]
• The Future of the U.S. Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Force
  by Lauren Caston, Robert S. Leonard, Christopher A. Mouton, Chad J. R. Ohlandt, S. Craig Moore, Raymond E. Conley, Glenn Buchan Abstract In the lead-up to the Air Force Ground Based Strategic Deterrent Analysis of Alternatives, RAND was asked to examine and assess possible intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) alternatives against the current Minuteman III system and to provide insights into the potential impact of further force reductions. The researchers developed a framework consisting of five categories — basing, propulsion, boost, reentry, and payload — to characterize alternative classes of ICBM and to assess the survivability and effectiveness of possible alternatives. Using existing cost analyses and cost data from historical ICBM programs, they derived likely cost bounds on alternative classes of ICBM systems. Finally, they developed force reduction scenarios, examined their impacts on several key nuclear specialty career fields to understand the implications of reductions on the current organizational structure, and compared sustainment and requirement profiles within the various reduction scenarios. [Nautilus: With US ICBMs at 420 and 4 used per year in tests, and allies demanding credible extended deterrence against China, DPRK, and Iran, this study concludes that “continu[ing] to reduce force sizes may compound the problem of balancing these increasingly complex interactions and relationships. The ICBM may have to evolve to support these future situations.”] [ICBM] [Test]
• N.Korean Rocket 'Threatened Chinese Passenger Plane'
  A Chinese passenger plane had a fairly close brush with a North Korean rocket fired on Tuesday, the Defense Ministry here said Wednesday. "A very dangerous situation" arose when China Southern Airlines flight CZ628 passed through the trajectory of a rocket the North launched without warning to civilian planes, the ministry said. The passenger plane, which was headed to Shenyang from Japan's Narita Airport, passed the area at 4:24 p.m. The North fired the missile at 4:17 p.m., a ministry official said. Ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok said, "Such a provocation by the North poses a serious threat to international flights and the safety of civilians." The Chinese plane flew in a northwesterly direction about 86 km from the trajectory some six minutes after the missile flew in a northeasterly direction. The plane flew at an altitude of 10 km and the missile of 20 km. The Airbus 321 aircraft was carrying 220 passengers and crew. The ministry notified the Chinese Embassy's military attaché of this fact.
• DPRK's Rocket Launching Drills, Part of Military Power of Its Army: KPA Officer
  Pyongyang, March 6 (KCNA) -- An Pyong Min, an officer of the Korean People's Army (KPA), said, recalling that the KPA Strategic Force successfully carried out rocket launching drills recently according to its regular training plans: The rockets accurately struck the targets in the designated waters without the slightest deviation, demonstrating the highest-ever rate of hits. In fact, this is part of the tremendous military power of our army capable to strike at one blow a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier or a nuclear strategic bomber provoking the DPRK. Problematic is that the U.S., frightened with the rocket launching drills, is making a fuss, terming them a "provocation" and "threat". Groundlessly it is labeling them "a violation" of UN resolutions. There is an old saying that criminals are sentenced to capital punishment even in a dream. Americans go despicably mad. The U.S., taken aback by the DPRK's satellite launch for a peaceful purpose, branded it as "a long-range missile launch" and is now describing medium- and short-range rocket launching as "a grave threat". This shows that psychopathy, a chronic disease of the U.S., reaches the worst incurable stage. This showed how densely they were engrained with the enmity to the DPRK and how much they were scared of the DPRK's rockets. A club is fit for a mad wolf. As we already declared, if the U.S. persists in a smear campaign, not coming to its senses, we should mercilessly blow up the dens of wolves including the U.S. mainland through powerful attack rocket launching. We will hold higher the slogan "Annihilate the U.S. imperialist aggressors, the sworn enemy of the Korean people!"
• Nuclear Triad to Survive Hagel Cuts in Pentagon Spending
  Feb. 24, 2014 By Elaine M. Grossman Global Security Newswire A U.S. Air Force B-2 stealth bomber rehearses a flyover of the U.S. Air Force Memorial in Arlington, Va., in 2006. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel on Monday said he would preserve funding to develop a new bomber to ultimately replace the B-2. A U.S. Air Force B-2 stealth bomber rehearses a flyover of the U.S. Air Force Memorial in Arlington, Va., in 2006. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel on Monday said he would preserve funding to develop a new bomber to ultimately replace the B-2. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images) U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel on Monday said the nation would keep its air-land-sea approach to the nuclear arsenal, despite new Pentagon spending cuts. "We ... preserve all three legs of the nuclear triad," he said in a lengthy statement at a Defense Department press conference, mostly devoted to conventional-warfare preparedness. "We'll make important investments to preserve a safe, secure, reliable and effective nuclear force." Speaking alongside Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey, the defense secretary laid out a series of reductions he said were necessary for maintaining military readiness and rebalancing the force structure to address future threats. The Air Force's A-10 close air support aircraft and the U-2 surveillance plane were notable casualties of the spending overhaul, though each of the planned weapons retirements could face pushback from Congress. The defense secretary also is looking to cut Army personnel numbers and cap a new class of Navy warships. Hagel did not rule out that the Pentagon might yet introduce spending reductions in the coming fiscal years to today's elements of the nuclear triad: Navy submarine-based Trident D-5 ballistic missiles; Air Force B-2 and B-52 bomber aircraft; and Air Force Minuteman 3 ground-based intercontinental ballistic missiles. However, as part of maintaining all three legs of the nuclear triad, he said the Pentagon plans to continue investing in the development of a Long Range Strike bomber to ultimately replace today's nuclear- and conventionally armed strategic-range aircraft. [US military] [Nuclear weapons]
• N.Korea Fires 7 More Rockets
  North Korea on Tuesday afternoon fired four more projectiles into the East Sea from a new 300-mm multiple rocket launcher with an estimated range of 180 km. A Defense Ministry official here said the North fired four rockets from the Hodo Peninsula in Wonsan, Kangwon Province in a northeasterly direction. They flew 155 km and fell into open waters. In the morning the North fired three rockets presumably from a 240-mm MRL from the same area. They fell into the sea about 50 km away. Military authorities believe the firings came in response to the entry of the U.S. nuclear-powered attack submarine Columbus into Busan Port on Monday ahead of the annual combined field training exercise of South Korea and the U.S. The new rocket launcher worries the South Korean military because projectiles are capable of reaching air bases in Suwon, Chungju and Seosan, as well as U.S. military bases in Pyeongtaek and Osan. The North has been firing a series of missiles and rockets since Feb. 21.
• President Requests Unprecedented Spending on Nuclear Weapons Maintenance, Design, Production
  Spending Requested Exceeds Reagan’s 1985 Maximum, Goes Up from There Efficiency of Warhead Complex at Record Low as Billions Are Wasted in Failed Projects, Extreme Salaries, Contractor Subsidies Greg Mello Los Alamos Study Group Albuquerque, NM – Today’s Department of Energy (DOE) budget request for fiscal year (FY2015) includes a requested $8.315 Billion (B) for nuclear “Weapons Activities” in the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), a semi-autonomous component of DOE. This does not include pro-rata administrative costs for NNSA’s warhead program, which come to about $293 million (M). Total warhead spending is thus $8.608 B, not including $504 M in potential additional warhead spending (see below). This is a 7% increase from the current year (FY2014). The request is far higher, in constant dollars, than the $8.13 B spent in 1985 for comparable work at the height of President Reagan’s surge in nuclear weapons spending, which was also the highest point of the Cold War. (See graph, below.) [Nuclear weapons]
• Seoul to seek more sanctions after N. Korea short-range missile launch
  Posted on : Mar.4,2014 17:28 KST Ministry of Defense says that recent N. Korean launch violates UN Security Council resolution By Ha Eo-young, staff reporter On Mar. 3, North Korea launched two more short-range missiles into the East Sea. Following an earlier launch on Feb. 27, the launch is raising questions about whether Pyongyang will make more launches and what its intentions may be. Declaring this to be a violation of a UN Security Council resolution, the South Korean government is exploring options for a response, including lodging a complaint with the Security Council. [UNUS]
• N.Korea Fires 2 More Missiles into East Sea
  North Korea on Monday morning fired two ballistic missiles into open waters in the East Sea without proclaiming a no-sail or no-fly zone to protect civilian vessels or planes. Seoul called the launches a "provocative act posing a serious threat to international flights and navigation and civilian safety." North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visits a military parts factory in Pyongyang in this photo published by the official Rodong Sinmun daily on Monday. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visits a military parts factory in Pyongyang in this photo published by the official Rodong Sinmun daily on Monday. The Defense Ministry here is considering a complaint to the UN since the firing violates a UN Security Council resolution banning the North from launching all ballistic missiles. [Joint US military] [Missiles] [Response] [UNUS]
• NK's missiles fall within Japan's air defense zone
  By Kang Seung-woo 2014-03-03 16:52 North Korea fired two short-range missiles into the sea off its eastern coast Monday, both of which fell within Japan’s air defense identification zone, according to South Korea’s defense ministry. One fell 400 kilometers northwest of Wajima, Ishikawa Prefecture, while the other landed 456 kilometers northwest of the same area. “North Korea fired the missiles into an area used by civilian airlines and ships. Not proclaiming a no-sail, no-fly zone before the missile launch is a violation of international regulations,” said a senior government official. The defense ministry said earlier in the day that the North launched two missiles in a northeasterly direction at 6:19 a.m. “The projectiles are thought to be Scud (C-type) missiles given their range capability of 500 kilometers,” ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok said at a briefing.
• DPRK launches two short-range missiles
  China.org.cn, March 3, 2014 The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) on Monday launched two short-range missiles on its east coast, Yonhap News Agency reported.
• N.Korea Tests New 300-mm Multiple Rocket Launchers
  Military authorities here tentatively concluded that short-range projectiles North Korea fired into the East Sea on Feb. 21 were not missiles but 300-mm multiple rocket launchers. If fired from near the demilitarized zone, the rockets with an estimated range of 180 km, could reach the headquarters of the South Korean Army, Navy and Air Force. A government source on Sunday said the rockets flew about 150 km. The Chinese WS-1B multiple rocket launcher (file photo) The Chinese WS-1B multiple rocket launcher (file photo) Military authorities here believe the North will deploy the new MRLs warfare-ready soon. They are reportedly similar to the WS-1B, which China remodeled based on a Russian rocket. The WS-1B has a range of 180 km and a maximum speed of Mach 5.2. It is 6.37 m long and can carry warheads up to 150 kg. Military authorities say MRLs are a bigger threat than short-range missiles despite their poor accuracy, because hundreds of rockets can be fired in short succession. The military has some means of intercepting incoming ballistic missiles but as yet no defense against MRL rockets, nor any plan in place to procure them. [Military balance]

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FEBRUARY 2014

• Documents Say Navy Knew Fukushima Dangerously Contaminated the USS Reagan
  by Harvey Wasserman A stunning new report indicates the U.S. Navy knew that sailors from the nuclear-powered USS Ronald Reagan took major radiation hits from the Fukushima atomic power plant after its meltdowns and explosions nearly three years ago. Sailors aboard the USS Ronald Reagan wash down the flight deck to remove potential radiation contamination while operating off the coast of Japan providing humanitarian assistance in support of Operation Tomodachi, March 22, 2011. If true, the revelations cast new light on the $1 billion lawsuit filed by the sailors against Tokyo Electric Power. Many of the sailors are already suffering devastating health impacts, but are being stonewalled by Tepco and the Navy. The Reagan had joined several other U.S. ships in Operation Tomodachi (“Friendship”) to aid victims of the March 11, 2011 quake and tsunami. Photographic evidence and first-person testimony confirms that on March 12, 2011 the ship was within two miles of FukushimaDai’ichi as the reactors there began to melt and explode. In the midst of a snow storm, deck hands were enveloped in a warm cloud that came with a metallic taste. Sailors testify that the Reagan’s 5,500-member crew was told over the ship’s intercom to avoid drinking or bathing in desalinized water drawn from a radioactive sea. The huge carrier quickly ceased its humanitarian efforts and sailed 100 miles out to sea, where newly published internal Navy communications confirm it was still taking serious doses of radioactive fallout. [Fukushima]
• N. Korea launches 4 short-range missiles
  Xinhua, February 27, 2014 The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) on Thursday launched four short-range missiles, reported South Korea's local broadcaster KBS, citing the Defense Ministry. The DPRK fired off four short-range missiles, estimated to be ballistic missiles, in the DPRK's east coast at around 5:42 p.m. Thursday, aiming at the northeastern waters. The Defense Ministry said that the projectiles were estimated to have a range of around 200 kms.
• North Korea fires four missiles
  By Kim Tae-gyu North Korea launched what are believed to be four short-ranged ballistic missiles off its eastern coast Thursday, chilling the recent optimism over inter-Korean relations following reunions of family members separated by the Korean War (1950-53). The Ministry of National Defense said the North fired the missiles from the Gitdaeryeong area starting at 5:42 p.m., which prompted the South to beef up its vigilance. “Originally, we thought they were an improved version of the KN-02 ground-to-ship missiles but we now believe they were Scud missiles because their range was longer than 200 kilometers,” a ministry official said. “However, we don’t exclude the possibility that they could have been the latest KN-02 or a new ground-to-air missile. We need additional analysis to reach a final conclusion.” The North has not fired a Scud missile since July 4, 2009. It has three types of Scuds with ranges of 300, 500 and 700 kilometers, respectively. Defense officials said that the missile test might have been a response to the ongoing ROK-U.S. Key Resolve joint military exercise along with its recent infringement of the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West Sea [Missiles] [Joint US military] [Media]
• NK playing nuclear card: experts
  By Chung Min-uck North Korea is playing the so-called nuclear card in order to gain the upper hand while negotiating with South Korea and the United States by increasing movement at the Stalinist state’s nuclear sites, experts said Friday. Amid mounting speculation that Pyongyang is preparing to stage its fourth nuclear test in the not-so-distant future, the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, a Washington-based think tank, published satellite photographs Thursday that provides evidence that the North has increased excavations at its northeastern Punggye-ri test site used for underground nuclear test explosions. “The diplomatic pressure that the North has to bear after carrying out its fourth nuke test is too much for North Korea to handle,” said Ko Yoo-hwan, a professor of studies on North Korea at Dongguk University in Seoul. “However, by signaling that they can push for another nuke test anytime at will, the North is seeking to pressure the South and the U.S. to come forward for the talks.” “The North is using the nuclear card for its benefit,” the professor added. [Test] [SK NK negotiations]
• North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: Significant Acceleration in Excavation Activity; No Test Indicators
  By 38 North 13 February 2014 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu Summary Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates a significant acceleration in excavation activity at the West Portal area since last viewed in early December 2013. The size of the pile of spoil excavated from a new tunnel appears to have doubled in a period of a little over a month. Exactly what accounts for this acceleration remains unclear. However, it is unlikely Pyongyang intends to use this tunnel for its next nuclear test since two other tunnels in the Southern area of the site appear complete. Because the Southern area is often covered in shadows during the winter, coverage by commercial satellites can prove to be spotty. As a result, it was not possible to view the tunnel entrances in the most recent February imagery. [Test]
• Defense minister says N. Korea ready for fourth nuclear test
  Posted on : Feb.11,2014 16:20 KST Kim Kwan-jin says South Korea will prepare a response, though there aren’t signs of an imminent launch By Choi Hyun-june, staff reporter South Korean Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin said that the North has completed its preparations for a fourth nuclear test at the site near Punggye Village, but that there is no evidence that a test is imminent. [Test] [Buildup]
• N.Korea 'Ready' for 4th Nuke Test
  North Korea has finished preparations for a fourth nuclear test at Punggye-ri, North Hamgyong Province, Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin told the National Assembly on Monday. But there are no signs that a test is imminent, he added. Kim said his ministry is checking reports by experts that the North is also preparing for the launch of a long-range missile in Tongchang-ri in North Pyongan Province. Specialist website 38 North at Johns Hopkins University on Thursday said commercial satellite images indicate that North Korea is nearing completion of modifications to the gantry at the rocket launch pad, adding an 11th level so the facility can handle large rockets of up to 50 m in length. Meanwhile, South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command the same day officially announced the schedule for annual joint Key Resolve/Foal Eagle exercises from Feb. 24 to April 18. On Sunday, the UN Command -- a nominally separate entity tasked with overseeing the armistice -- informed the North of the schedule of the exercises. The North usually protests vociferously against the drills, but as of Monday afternoon there had been no response. The drills overlap with planned reunions of families separated by the Korean War on Feb. 20-25 at the Mt. Kumgang resort, but Seoul hopes they will not scupper the reunions again. [US Joint military] [Test] [Buildup]
• N.Korea Close to Completing Rocket Launch Pad
  North Korea seems poised to launch another rocket after almost completing a launch pad in Tongchang-ri, North Pyongan Province, experts believe. Specialist website 38 North at Johns Hopkins University on Thursday said, "Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates that North Korea is nearing completion of modifications to the gantry at the launch pad of the Sohae Satellite Launching Station." "A new eleventh level has been added -- one more than previously estimated -- allowing the facility to handle large rockets of up to 50 m in length and almost 70 percent longer than the Unha-3 space launch vehicle tested twice in 2012." A government source here said, "It's hard to establish the details, but it's true that the North has modified the Tongchang-ri launch pad." "Modification of the Sohae launch pad should be completed by March or April 2014 if work progresses at the current rate," the website added. "The pad will then be available for additional launches, probably of the Unha-3 rocket or a slightly longer variant, such as the Unha-9, which was first displayed as a model in 2012." [SLV]
• News Alert: North Korea Nears Completion of Larger Rocket Launch Pad
  By 38 North 06 February 2014 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Nick Hansen. Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates that North Korea is nearing completion of modifications to the gantry at the launch pad of the Sohae Satellite Launching Station (Tongchang-ri). A new eleventh level has been added—one more than previously estimated—allowing the facility to handle large rockets of up to 50 meters in length and almost 70 percent longer than the Unha-3 space launch vehicle (SLV) tested twice in 2012. Structural beams present in early January that appeared intended to support a roof for the tenth level are instead being used to support the additional level. Work appears nearly complete since there are no additional structures on or above that level and the roof is almost finished (figure 1). [SLV]
• That Ain’t My Truck: Where North Korea Assembled Its Chinese Transporter-Erector-Launchers
  By Jeffrey Lewis 03 February 2014 This article is co-authored by Jeffrey Lewis, Melissa Hanham and Amber Lee. On April 15, 2012, North Korea paraded what appeared to be six road-mobile missiles, quickly identified in the media as KN-08 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), through Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang.[1][2] Attention immediately focused on these unusual vehicles, after Chinese bloggers identified them as Chinese-manufactured transporter-erector-launchers (TELs) used by Beijing’s strategic missile forces.[3] Officials in Beijing initially denied exporting “any items prohibited by relevant UN Security Council resolutions and Chinese laws and regulations.” However they later stated that the Chinese firm in question had only exported civilian-use chassis, which can be used for a variety of civil purposes, including logging and construction.[4] Although the chassis export appeared to violate sanctions on North Korea and Chinese domestic law,[5] the Chinese showed evidence that the North Koreans had provided the name of a false end-user for the vehicles, a standard tactic for evading export controls, and stated that North Korea had added the erectors and other specialized equipment to the chassis themselves.[6] It is possible, using open source information, to make some preliminary judgments about China’s claim, as well as North Korea’s infrastructure for producing TELs. Although it is hard to believe that the Chinese were not aware that North Korea would use the vehicle chassis for its illicit missile program, available evidence suggests that Pyongyang did indeed add the erectors at facilities known to assemble missile TELs.

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JANUARY 2014

• Significant Developments at North Korea’s Sohae Test Facility
  By 38 North 29 January 2014 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Nick Hansen. Summary Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates that North Korea may be preparing the Sohae Satellite Launching Station (“Tongchang-ri”) for a more robust rocket test program in the future involving larger space launch vehicles and road-mobile ballistic missiles able to attack targets in Northeast Asia and the United States. [SLV] [Rocketry] [Missile]
• The truth about Israel's secret nuclear arsenal
  Israel has been stealing nuclear secrets and covertly making bombs since the 1950s. And western governments, including Britain and the US, turn a blind eye. But how can we expect Iran to curb its nuclear ambitions if the Israelis won't come clean? Julian Borger Wednesday 15 January 2014 18.18 GMT Deep beneath desert sands, an embattled Middle Eastern state has built a covert nuclear bomb, using technology and materials provided by friendly powers or stolen by a clandestine network of agents. It is the stuff of pulp thrillers and the sort of narrative often used to characterise the worst fears about the Iranian nuclear programme. In reality, though, neither US nor British intelligence believe Tehran has decided to build a bomb, and Iran's atomic projects are under constant international monitoring. The exotic tale of the bomb hidden in the desert is a true story, though. It's just one that applies to another country. In an extraordinary feat of subterfuge, Israel managed to assemble an entire underground nuclear arsenal – now estimated at 80 warheads, on a par with India and Pakistan – and even tested a bomb nearly half a century ago, with a minimum of international outcry or even much public awareness of what it was doing. [Israel]
• The Axis of Orbit: Iran-DPRK Space Cooperation
  By Jeffrey Lewis 13 January 2014 In 2012, I attended a Track II meeting with some North Koreans where they mentioned a series of space launches. A series, I asked? They didn’t want to say more, but left me with the distinct impression that we’ll be seeing a lot more launches from the DPRK. After that meeting, North Korea tried twice—a failed launch in April and then succeeding in December 2012. Iran, too, has been launching satellites—and monkeys—into space. While I am sure most North Koreans and Iranians dream of the stars, it is understandable for those of us in the United States to wonder whether they have more earthly aims. One need not be a cynic to look askance at North Korean and Iranian aspirations regarding the peaceful use of outer space when Pyongyang publishes pictures of the now famous “Map of Death.” Given the state of relations between North Korea and Iran, the mind tends to wander onto the subject of missile cooperation between the two. Part of the fascination is simply the joy of a super villain team-up. The better part, though, is a question about whether a negotiated agreement with either can work in isolation. Can we reach an agreement with Iran to deal with its worrisome nuclear and ballistic missile programs if there are no constraints on North Korea? How about the other way around? We have known for a long time that North Korea and Iran cooperate on missiles—just look at the resemblance between Iran’s Shahab-3 and Pyongyang’s Nodong missile. But in recent months, there have been rumors about a relationship that go beyond the odd missile sale (or six). Last year, Western diplomatic sources told Kyodo’s Inoue Tomotaro that Iran now stations four missile experts at a facility in North Korea about 85 kilometers from the Chinese border. The source said the mission included experts from Iran’s Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics as well as the private sector. Subsequent stories linked the Iranian “engineering team” to the Shahid Hemmat Industrial Group. Although none of the stories say so, the rumor is that the Iranians are stashed in the Chongju area safely out of Pyongyang. (Seriously, can’t one of these guys put up a picture with a Farsi caption like “the best Kebab stand in North Hamgyong Country” or something?) [SLV] [Iran] [Missiles]
• N.Korea Given Low Marks for Nuclear Materials Security
  North Korea is one of nine nuclear weapons states in the world but "seriously deficient" in terms of making radioactive materials secure, a U.S. think tanks believes. The Nuclear Threat Initiative, a nongovernmental organization in the U.S., released a report of safekeeping of nuclear materials with the approach of the Nuclear Security Summit in The Hague in March. The NTI evaluated countries based on an index it worked out together with the London-based Economist Intelligence Unit. [media] [Logic] [Plutonium]
• Obama Administration Underestimated Cost of Maintaining Nuclear Weapons by $140 Billion
  Friday, December 27, 2013 B61 nuclear bombs (photo: Department of Defense) Defense officials in the Obama administration were more than a little off when they told Congress the cost of maintaining the nation’s nuclear weapons arsenal over the next 10 years. They missed the mark by at least $140 billion. Two years ago, the Pentagon informed lawmakers that they would need to allocate $214 billion over the coming decade to operate and upgrade the stockpile of nuclear warheads and delivery systems. But the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) looked at the Defense Department’s future plans and found that nuclear weapons-related costs were more likely to reach $355 billion by 2023. [Nuclear weapons]

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