Satellite and Nuclear Issues
Includes Six Party Talks
2016
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Much material on this issue finds its way to the US and other pages, when the emphasis seems to be on state-to-state relations. The exception being the Six-Party Talks which are usually posted here.
for some key documents see 2011 page

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• December
• November
• October
• September
• August
• July
• June
• May
• April
• March
• February
• January

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DECEMBER 2016

• N. Korea leader seeks to complete nuclear program by 2017
  By Yi Whan-woo Thae Yong-ho, the former North Korean deputy ambassador to the United Kingdom, raises his hands after speaking at a press conference at the government complex in downtown Seoul, Tuesday. He defected to the South in August. / Joint press corps North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is seeking to complete his country's nuclear program by the end of next year, Thae Yong-ho, a former North Korean deputy ambassador to the United Kingdom, said Tuesday. Thae, one of the highest-ranking North Korean officials to defect to South Korea, said Pyongyang is taking South Korea's presidential election and the political transition of the United States with the incoming Donald Trump administration into account in setting its nuclear timetable. "Kim is racing ahead with a nuclear program at all costs by the end of 2017," Thae said during a press conference at the government complex in downtown Seoul. "He believes Seoul and Washington will not be able to stop Pyongyang's aggressive and provocative military actions because of their political timetables." [Thae Yong Ho] [Nuclear capability]
• White paper sets out China's vision as a space power
  by Staff Writers Beijing (XNA) Dec 28, 2016 China aims to become a space power, according to a white paper on the nation's space activities issued on Tuesday. The white paper, titled "China's Space Activities in 2016," was the fourth white paper on the country's space activities issued by the State Council Information Office, following the previous three in 2000, 2006 and 2011 [Space] [SLV]
• Israel Mulls Acquisition of Hundreds of Missiles for Possible Lebanon Conflict
  Defense officials are looking into acquiring hundreds of missiles and precision rockets that could destroy targets during a confrontation with forces inside Lebanon. The focus of their interest is a pair of developments – IMI Systems’ Extra rocket and Israel Aerospace Industries’ LORA surface-to-surface missile. The Artillery Corps currently uses the Romach artillery rocket system, which uses a GPS-based guidance system to hit targets up to 35 kilometers away with an accuracy of less than 10 meters and has a 20-kilogram warhead. The Israeli army plans to use these rockets when the air force’s operations are limited or when the air force is on other missions. The goal is to include a rocket battalion in every maneuvering division of the army. Israel has delivered hundreds of similar rockets to armies around the world. [Israel] [Missiles] Double standards] [Arms sales]
• India successfully test-fires nuclear capable Agni-V
  Rajat Pandit, TNN | Dec 26, 2016, 09.49AM IST NEW DELHI: India tested its Agni-V intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in its final operational configuration from Wheeler Island off Odisha on Monday, paving the way for its eventual induction into the Strategic Forces Command (SFC) after user-trials. The nuclear-capable Agni-V, which can even reach the northernmost parts of China with its strike range of over 5,000-km, was test-fired from its canister on a launcher truck just after 11 am. "All the test parameters of the missile, which was tested for its full range, were successfully achieved. The missile splashed down near Australian waters," said an official. Successful test firing of Agni V makes every Indian very proud. It will add tremendous strength to our strategic defence. [India] [ICBM] [Double standards]
• Rocket Test Postponed as Space Program Sputters
  December 23, 2016 12:54 The planned test of a homegrown engine for a space rocket has been postponed by 10 months to late 2018 since more time is needed to deal with technical glitches. The government scrambled to bring the test launch forward by 10 months so it could happen before President Park Geun-hye's five-year term ends, but now she faces impeachment the urgency has evaporated. The Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning on Thursday decided to postpone the test of the 75-ton liquid-fuel rocket engine from December next year to October 2018. It said the completion date for the entire homegrown space rocket planned for June 2020 could also change. . [SLV]
• N. Korea likely to conduct nuke test around S. Korea's presidential race: high-ranking defector
  North Korea is seeking to conduct another nuclear test around South Korea's presidential election next year, a high-profile North Korean defector has said, in the latest sign that Pyongyang would not abandon its nuclear program despite growing international pressure. Thae Yong-ho, a former No. 2 official at the North Korean embassy in London, said North Korea's foreign ministry has sent documents to its overseas missions that Pyongyang is seeking to carry out its sixth and seventh nuclear test by next year. [Thae Yong Ho] [Test] [Election]
• N. Korea may develop ICBM capable of hitting US mainland by 2020: report
  North Korea is believed to have secured a technology to miniaturize nuclear warheads and load them onto its Scud and Nodong ballistic missiles, a report issued by a Seoul government think tank said Sunday. The Institute for National Security Strategy under the National Intelligence Service said in its 2016 annual report that North Korea is expected to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the U.S. mainland by 2020 at the latest after drastically increasing the number of its nuclear warheads. "The seriousness of the North Korean nuclear program lies in the rapid growth in the number of warheads, as well as its miniaturization and diversification. The North is estimated to have succeeded in developing nuclear warheads on par with boosted fission weapons through its fourth and fifth nuclear tests," the report said. [ICBM] [Nuclear capability]
• Trump says he wants to ‘greatly strengthen and expand’ U.S. nuclear capability
  Russian President Vladimir Putin praised his country's military on Dec. 22, saying its armed forces had performed well in the fight against "international terrorists" in Syria. (Reuters) By Carol Morello December 22 at 1:05 PM ? President-elect Donald Trump on Thursday called for the United States to expand its nuclear arsenal, after Russian President Vladi­mir Putin said his country’s nuclear potential needs fortifying, raising the specter of a new arms race that would reverse decades of efforts to reduce the number and size of the two countries’ nuclear weapons. In a tweet that offered no details, Trump said, “The United States must greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability until such time as the world comes to its senses regarding nukes.” Trump’s position represents a radical shift in thinking. Russia and the United States have worked for decades at first limiting, and then reducing, the number and strength of nuclear arms they produced and maintained under a Cold War strategy of deterrence known as “mutually assured destruction.” Republican and Democratic presidents have pursued a policy of nuclear arms reduction. [Trump] [Nuclear capability] [Nuclear strategy]
• North Korean Missiles Can’t Actually Reach Europe
  By John Schilling 19 December 2016 We note with bemused interest that the South Korean government is now claiming that North Korea’s missiles pose a “direct threat to the US homeland” and that “Europe is also within range.” European media has reported that the director-general of South Korea’s North Korean Nuclear Affairs Bureau made the claim at a press briefing in Seoul last month. This claim is wholly unsubstantiated, and almost certainly not true – particularly where Europe is concerned. [ICBM] [Europe] [Diversion]
• N.Korea 'Conducts Land Test of Sub-Launched Missile'
  By Kim Soo-hye, Lee Yong-soo December 16, 2016 12:38 North Korea early this month conducted a land test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile, Washington has confirmed according to Japanese media on Thursday. The test was reportedly aimed at perfecting cold-launch technology. Cold launch is an advanced method of igniting the missile after it has been expelled from the water. The North probably conducted the test on land to improve the success rate. In August, the North succeeded in extending the range of sub-launched missiles to an estimated 500 km. Washington is stepping up surveillance because it fears that the North is close to deploying the missiles warfare-ready, NHK reported. [SLBM]
• Did The Donald Suggest South Korea Build The Bomb? No, But That Might Be The Outcome Anyway
  By Jeffrey Lewis 08 December 2016 In the foreground are silhouettes of around a dozen ballistic missiles. In the background positioned where the sky would be is a flag of South Korea.This is the first of a four-part series on what a Trump presidency could mean for US policy toward North Korea. One of the strangest aspects of the campaign that led to the election of Donald Trump as the next President of the United States was his repeated references to the possibility of letting Japan and South Korea build their own nuclear weapons in response to North Korea’s nuclear program. Trump later denied that he made those comments—on Twitter of all places!—but he did say it. In fact, he raised the possibility on three separate occasions. The issue first came up in March in an interview with David Sanger and Maggie Haberman in the New York Times. According to Sanger and Haberman, Trump “said he would be open to allowing Japan and South Korea to build their own nuclear arsenals rather than depend on the American nuclear umbrella for their protection against North Korea and China.” Trump also said—and this is important—that “he would be willing to withdraw United States forces from both Japan and South Korea if they did not substantially increase their contributions to the costs of housing and feeding those troops.” [Trump] [Nuclearisation]

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NOVEMBER 2016

• Missile giant targets 20% of market to launch small satellites
  China Daily, November 29, 2016 China Aerospace Science and Industry Corp, the largest missile maker in the country, is taking aim at 20 percent or more of the small-satellite launch contracts in the world by 2020, company executives said. "We estimate that from 2017 to 2020, we will send aloft at least 10 solid-fuel carrier rockets each year, to send about 50 small satellites into orbit," said Guo Yong, president of the CASIC Fourth Academy, in an exclusive interview with China Daily in Wuhan, capital of Hubei province. That, he said, would account for "about one-fifth of the estimated total annual missions of solid-fuel rockets around the world in that period". Guo said letters of intent to use nearly 20 Kuaizhou rockets were signed at the 11th China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition this month in Zhuhai, Guangdong province. "Our clients told us that they hope the launch of their satellites will be arranged as early as possible," Guo added. In mid-February, the academy set up China's second commercial launch provider, Expace Technology Co. The first was China Great Wall Industry Corp, established in 1980, which is part of another major space contractor, China Aerospace Science and Technology Corp. Great Wall Industry has done 54 commercial launches for over 20 overseas clients since 1990, when it launched its first foreign-made satellite. All of those commercial missions used Long March rockets developed by Great Wall's parent company. {Missiles] [Satellites] [Privatisation] [SOE]
• Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: No Indications that a Test is Imminent
  By 38 North 15 November 2016 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr. and Jack Liu. Summary Recent commercial satellite imagery from October 29 and November 9 shows continued low-level activity at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Facility. This activity suggests that maintenance and minor excavation operations are taking place at the North and West Portals and that maintenance is likely underway at the Command Center. There are no definitive indications that another test is imminent, however, the site remains capable of further testing with little notice, once the decision to move forward is made.
• Nuclear Weapons in South Korea under Discussion
  Konstantin Asmolov On October 2016, the Presidential Advisory Council on Democratic and Peaceful Unification of Korea suggested to the President of the Republic of Korea returning US tactical nuclear weapons to the country. The report entitled “The policy of promotion of the second plan on Korean reunification” states that the search for opportunities to place US tactical nuclear weapons in the Republic of Korea and the permanent basing of American strategic forces may serve as a pressure tool both on the DPRK, and on China to toughen sanctions in respect of Pyongyang. The placement of US tactical nuclear weapons in the Republic of Korea is justified in the report by the following example – SS-series ballistic missiles were placed in the territory of the former USSR that were targeted on Europe, in response to this, the USA placed Pershing II – the American medium-range ballistic missiles of mobile basing – in Europe. [Nuclearisation]
• A diver was looking for sea cucumbers. He may have found a long-lost nuclear bomb instead.
  By Amy B Wang November 8 at 7:10 AM These old videos show the aircraft similar to the one that crashed over British Columbia in 1950. A diver may have located the bomb that was on the aircraft. (Gillian Brockell/The Washington Post)
  “We wound up in this little fishing village and we started to get some Internet,” he said. “And one of the guys said, ‘Hey, maybe you found that old bomb they lost.’ ” “That old bomb,” the older fisherman explained, was from a U.S. Air Force B-36 bomber that had crashed over British Columbia in 1950. [Nuclear weapons] [Accident]
• Flashback to the Past: North Korea’s “New” Extended-Range Scud
  By Markus Schiller and Robert H. Schmucker 08 November 2016 Summary fig1_kcna-16-0903-missileAt 12:14 p.m. on September 5, 2016, North Korea launched three missiles within one minute of each other from a highway south of Pyongyang. All three launches were successful; the missiles reportedly each covered a distance of 1,000 km and landed about 240 km west of Okushirito Island, part of the Japanese prefecture of Hokkaido. The tests marked the first public demonstration of this missile, but the weapon itself is not new. Rumors surfaced more than 15 years ago that North Korea possessed this missile, and strong indications exist that it was part of a massive transfer of Soviet technology and know-how to the DPRK in the 1990s. [Missile] [Scud}
• Is North Korea’s nuclear tech for sale?
  3 November 2016 Authors: June Park, NUS and Jonathan B. Miller, CFR As North Korea’s economic position worsens, the risk that it sells its nuclear weapons technology grows. Pyongyang conducted its fifth nuclear test on 9 September, accompanied by claims it has developed a warhead that can be mounted onto rockets. This test is estimated to have been at a yield of 25–30 kilotons — significantly larger than previous tests. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un meets scientists and technicians in the field of research into nuclear weapons in Pyongyang, North Korea, 9 March, 2016. (Photo: Reuters/KCNA). While the magnitude of the test alarmed some US policymakers, Washington’s foreign policy remains focused on the Middle East. Similarly, North Korea’s subsequent missile tests that ended in failure on 15 and 20 October gained little attention. [Nuclear terrorism] [MISCOM] [Attribution] [Bizarre]
• Election 2016 and the Growing Global Nuclear Threat: Playing a Game of Chicken with Nuclear Strategy
  By Michael T. Klare Once upon a time, when choosing a new president, a factor for many voters was the perennial question: “Whose finger do you want on the nuclear button?” Of all the responsibilities of America’s top executive, none may be more momentous than deciding whether, and under what circumstances, to activate the “nuclear codes” -- the secret alphanumeric messages that would inform missile officers in silos and submarines that the fearful moment had finally arrived to launch their intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) toward a foreign adversary, igniting a thermonuclear war. Until recently in the post-Cold War world, however, nuclear weapons seemed to drop from sight, and that question along with it. Not any longer. In 2016, the nuclear issue is back big time, thanks both to the rise of Donald Trump (including various unsettling comments he’s made about nuclear weapons) and actual changes in the global nuclear landscape. With passions running high on both sides in this year’s election and rising fears about Donald Trump’s impulsive nature and Hillary Clinton’s hawkish one, it’s hardly surprising that the “nuclear button” question has surfaced repeatedly throughout the campaign. In one of the more pointed exchanges of the first presidential debate, Hillary Clinton declared that Donald Trump lacked the mental composure for the job. “A man who can be provoked by a tweet,” she commented, “should not have his fingers anywhere near the nuclear codes.” Donald Trump has reciprocated by charging that Clinton is too prone to intervene abroad. “You’re going to end up in World War III over Syria,” he told reporters in Florida last month. [Nuclear strategy]
• When Charlottesville Was Nuked - David Swanson
  Friday, 4 November 2016, 4:38 pm Thirty-seven years ago, the United States Congress commissioned and published a work of fiction, an account of what life in Charlottesville, Virginia, might be like during a nuclear war. It's contained in a longer report called The Effects of Nuclear War which came out in May of 1979. It's widely available online. [Nuclear weapons]
• UN votes for global nuclear weapons ban negotiations in 2017
  Matt Payton
  Thirty eight countries voted against the resolution including five of the world's nine nuclear powers | Thursday 3 November 2016 The United Nations General Assembly has voted to begin negotiations on a unilateral nuclear weapons ban next year. In its 71st session, the Assembly voted 123 in favour of negotiations with 38 countries voting against and 16 abstaining. The passed resolution proposes "to convene in 2017 a United Nations conference to negotiate a legally binding instrument to prohibit nuclear weapons, leading towards their total elimination". The number of nuclear weapons currently in existence is estimated between 10,000 and 15,000. There are nine countries currently in possesion of nuclear weapons: the UK, Russia, United States, China, India, Israel, France, North Korea and Pakistan
  Despite decades of signing treaties towards nuclear disarmament, the leading nuclear powers - UK, US, France and Russia all voted against the resolution. Israel, an officially undeclared nuclear power, also voted against the motion.
  North Korea was the only nuclear power to vote in favour of the resolution. [Nuclear weapons] [Disarmament]
• Ban nuclear weapons by law next year, says historic UN vote
  Ban nuclear weapons by law next year, says historic UN vote A father and son inspect candles lining a path in Nagasaki, Japan, on August 8, 2015, the eve of the 70th anniversary of the U.S. bombing of the port city with an atomic bomb. © Paul Jeffrey/WCC 28 October 2016 By a three-to-one margin, the United Nations is authorizing negotiations to ban nuclear weapons in 2017. The decision caps five years of rising international will to eliminate nuclear weapons because of their catastrophic effects. The UN General Assembly’s First Committee took the decision on 27 October. [Nuclear weapons] [Disarmament]
• A US Election Surprise? Possible but Unlikely
  By 38 North 04 November 2016 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu While there has been speculation of a North Korean satellite launch or nuclear test occurring during the run-up to the US Presidential election, the evidence from commercial satellite imagery of the Sohae Satellite Launching Station and the Punggye-ri nuclear test site suggests it’s possible but unlikely. [Satellite] [Test]
• Australia may need a post-America foreign policy Plan B
  November 3, 2016 Is Australia quietly developing a Plan B for our international positioning? For the first time a Singapore prime minister has been asked to address our Parliament; soon the Indonesian president will be given the same honor. Last year we signed a “comprehensive partnership” with the other mega-population state in the region, the Philippines. The way we welcomed the Singapore leader conveyed personal sensitivity and long-term commitment. Australia and Singapore, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull said, are “natural partners” and have a “common security outlook.” Turnbull also insisted that Australians and Singaporeans – despite their different histories and cultural traditions – possess “similar national characters” – and our relations “spring from the heart, as much as … from the head.” As for Indonesia, Turnbull’s visit last November helped relations move beyond drug-related executions, spying accusations, and cattle trade issues – with our prime minister insisting the two countries could have a “future that has really the widest opportunities in the history of human development.” This is the type of language we use most frequently when addressing US leaders. The Australian public (as Lowy Institute polling demonstrates year after year) continues to place the US alliance above any other foreign-policy priority, with some 70 to 87 percent of Australians insisting on the importance of the alliance for Australia’s security. [Allegiance]
• How many nuclear warheads does the United States need?
  November 1, 2016 Volume 14 | Issue 21 | Number 4 Lawrence S. Wittner, Response to Frank von Hippel Frank von Hippel, one of the world’s leading specialists on nuclear weapons, has provided us?and the presidential candidates?with an important challenge: How are we going to get the stalled nuclear disarmament process moving forward once again? Answering the challenge is particularly problematic because it requires navigating between the national security fears of U.S. political leaders and the apparent disinterest in further nuclear disarmament on the part of the Russian government. Even so, a case can be made for cutting back the deployed U.S. nuclear arsenal. [US Global strategy] [Nuclear weapons] [Nuclear strategy]
• US intelligence officials negative about S. Korea's nuclear armament, but say it's up to Seoul
  Updated : 2016-11-02 08:55 U.S. intelligence officials reacted negatively to calls in South Korea for the country's own nuclear armament, but said it is ultimately up to the country whether to pursue the option or not, according to South Korean lawmakers Tuesday. Reps. Won Yoo-chul of the ruling Saenuri Party and Lee In-young of the Minjoo Party made the remark, saying they met with officials of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI). "They said it's basically an issue that South Korea should make a decision on, but questioned whether it would be effective," Lee told South Korean reporters. [Nuclearisation] [Pretend equality]

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OCTOBER 2016

• North Korea’s Tonghae Satellite Launching Ground: Caretaker Status
  By 38 North 28 October 2016 Summary Commercial satellite imagery from January to October 2016 indicates that the Tonghae Satellite Launching Ground on North Korea’s east coast remains in caretaker status. While construction efforts that began in 2011 were suspended in 2013,[1] routine activity continues, such as minor maintenance and the drying of crops. No launches have been attempted from this facility since April 2009 and extensive repairs would be needed to reuse the old launch pad and gantry tower. However, with some maintenance, the engine test stand could likely accommodate testing up to Nodong-sized engines. While it is unclear why construction at Tonghae was suspended in 2013, with adequate resource allocations, it would take roughly 12-18 months to complete the projects that were previously underway, and approximately another six months to be ready for future launches. [SLV]
• Failed Musudan missile launch burned mobile launcher
  North Korea's failed Musudan missile launch caused considerable damage to one of its mobile launchers, official sources here said Wednesday, the latest sign of shortcomings in the country's military capabilities. Pyongyang launched a ballistic missile, believed to be a Musudan, last Thursday from an airfield in the northwestern city of Kusong. The intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) is known to have exploded soon after liftoff. This launch appeared to have been an attempt by the North to save face from another failed Musudan test conducted less than a week earlier on Oct. 15. "The exploding missile caused the launcher to catch fire and it was seriously scorched," a government official told Yonhap News Agency. South Korean military and intelligence authorities believe that North Korea was testing a Musudan missile with a modified liquid-fuel rocket engine when the missile exploded. They believe the explosion was caused by defects in fuel conduits. [Musudan]
• Did North Korea just test missiles capable of hitting the U.S.? Maybe.
  By Anna Fifield October 26 at 12:21 PM ? Composite satellite images taken on Oct. 15 and Oct. 20 show Panghyon Air Base in North Korea after missile tests were conducted. (Planet Labs) TOKYO — North Korea has made no secret of its goal to produce an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of hitting the United States mainland, giving it the means to send a nuclear warhead to its archenemy. Kim Jong Un’s rocket scientists are thought to be several years from being able to do this, instead concentrating on intermediate-range missiles that can reach only as far as Guam. But now some analysts are asking: Did North Korea just try to launch two long-range missiles? “We think it is important that people consider the possibility that this was a KN-08 test,” said Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia nonproliferation program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey in California, referring to the intercontinental ballistic missile, or ICBM, by its technical name. [ICBM] [KN-08]
• Russia unveils 'Satan 2' missile powerful enough to 'wipe out UK, France or Texas'
  David Lawler 25 October 2016 • 8:59pm Russia has released the first image of its new nuclear missile, a weapon so powerful that it could wipe out nearly all of the United Kingdom or France. The RS-28 Sarmat thermonuclear-armed ballistic missile was commissioned in 2011 and is expected to come into service in 2018. The first images of the massive missile were declassified on Sunday and have now been published for the first time. It has been dubbed "Satan 2", as it will replace the RS-36M, the 1970s-era weapon referred to by Nato as the Satan missile. An SS 18 Satan missile is launched in 2007 Sputnik, the Russian government-controlled news agency, reported in May that the missile could destroy an area "the size of Texas or France". Russian media report that the missile will weigh up to 10 tons with the capacity to carry up to 10 tons of nuclear cargo. With that type of payload, it could deliver a blast some 2,000 times more powerful than the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Russia reportedly tested a hypersonic warhead in April that is apparently intended for use on the Satan 2 missiles. The warhead is designed to be impossible to intercept because it does not move on a set trajectory. [Missiles] [Deterrent]
• Checks and Balances: Thermal Imagery Analysis of Yongbyon
  By 38 North 25 October 2016 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Andy Dinville and Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. Summary Given the lack of access to North Korea’s nuclear facilities at Yongbyon, outside observers rely on a variety of tools to monitor what is happening throughout the complex. High resolution commercial satellite imagery is useful for detecting movement as well as external signs and developments. Thermal imagery indicates variances in the heat signatures of buildings versus their surroundings, helping to identify when specific facilities are operational. When combined, the information gleaned from these tools should be reinforcing and can help prevent the type of deception that can occur when relying on satellite imagery alone. Thermal imagery[1] of the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center from January 2015 to August 2016 supports the numerous reports of activities observed in commercial satellite imagery over the same period. In spring 2016, thermal imagery showed concentrated heat patterns at the Radiochemical Laboratory, a significant deviation from the same period in 2015, as well as strong temperature differences from the surrounding area. These patterns reinforce reports based on satellite imagery that North Korea conducted a spent fuel reprocessing campaign earlier this year. Thermal patterns at the 5 MWe Reactor over this same period showed no significant deviations. Satellite imagery analysis indicated that the reactor has either not been running or has been operating at very low power levels. Additionally, there were no thermal patterns at the Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR), supporting the conclusion that the reactor is not yet operational. [Yongbyon]
• The strategic illusion of No First Use policy
  22 October 2016 Author: Hugh White, ANU Ramesh Thakur and I may not be as far apart on No First Use (NFU) as he seems to think. I agree that America should make an NFU declaration because, like him, I think that Washington is kidding itself to imagine that the first use of nuclear weapons is a credible option today — especially against any adversary with the capacity to launch a nuclear attack on the US homeland. And like him I think that strategic policy should not be based on an illusion. A woman holds a sunflower at a peace vigil in front of ‘Chain Reaction,’ a mushroom cloud sculpture as a symbol of a world free of nuclear weapons, in Santa Monica, California. (Photo: Reuters/Lucy Nicholson). Where we disagree is over the wider consequences of such a declaration. An NFU declaration would weaken the United States’ strategic position in Asia by weakening its key alliances there — especially with Japan. That is because Japanese leaders and policymakers genuinely seem to believe that the implied US threat of first use helps deter China in a way that conventional US forces cannot. [No First Use] [China confrontation]
• U.S. Seeks to Scupper Proposed Ban on Nuclear Arms
  The Obama administration once sought a nuclear-free world. Now it’s fighting a ban on those very weapons.
  By Colum Lynch October 21, 2016 Almost eight years after President Barack Obama pledged in a landmark speech in Prague to seek “a world without nuclear weapons,” U.S. diplomats are mounting an aggressive campaign to head off a bid by non-nuclear states to ban such atomic arms. American diplomats say the increasing belligerence of China and Russia — from the South China Sea to Syria to the Baltic — as well as the advancing pace of North Korea’s nuclear weapons development, make it untenable for the United States and its allies to support such a far-reaching commitment to scrap their nukes. “The security climate is not such that it is conducive to nuclear disarmament,” said a senior U.S. official, asserting that a treaty could undermine the nuclear deterrent in Europe and Asia. “Until we have a relaxation of these tensions, and you’ve got a Russia that is willing to engage in further nuclear disarmament, it’s going to be difficult to make progress,” he said. But supporters of the ban, including delegates from non-nuclear states and arms control experts, say that Washington is exaggerating the risks. They believe a ban would increase pressure on the world’s major nuclear powers to abide by their decades-long obligation to dismantle their nuclear weapons arsenals, the cornerstone of global efforts at limiting nuclear proliferation. [Nuclear disarmament] [Obama] [Rhetoric]
• Can S. Korea get US approval for nuclear sub?
  By Jun Ji-hye Can South Korea develop a nuclear-powered attack submarine to deter threats from North Korea's submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM)? The government and the ruling Saenuri Party said Tuesday that they have agreed to consider developing such a vessel during a meeting at the National Assembly. Rep. Kim Gwang-lim, chief policymaker of the ruling party, told reporters after the meeting that he strongly requested the government to build a nuclear-powered attack submarine as early as possible to counter the North's SLBM threat. "The party stressed that securing a nuclear sub is an urgent task to overcome the North's asymmetric capabilities and strengthen self-defense," he said. "The government vowed to seriously consider the suggestion." However, critics have questioned the feasibility of the development, saying that the nation would face major hurdles, including disapproval from the United States, which virtually controls the uranium enrichment and nuclear fuel reprocessing of South Korea. Calls for developing a nuclear attack sub surfaced after the North successfully launched an SLBM, Aug. 24, which flew about 500 kilometers and landed within Japan's Air Defense Identification Zone in the East Sea. If an SLBM flies at least 300 kilometers during its test, the launch is considered successful, according to experts. Days after the launch, Rep. Chung Jin-suk, floor leader of the ruling party, publicly urged the military to consider getting nuclear attack submarines that can deal with the North's SLBMs, which he said are a more serious threat than land-based missiles, as their launch point is difficult to detect. A nuclear submarine can stay submerged and hidden under water for as long as it has supplies for its crew, making it harder to track than conventional diesel-electric ones that have to surface frequently and operate a diesel engine to recharge their batteries. Supporters of having nuclear attack subs say such vessels can be assigned to patrol around North Korean submarine bases without being detected and trail SLBM-armed subs heading out to sea. [Nuclear submarine] [US dominance] [SLBM]
• Activity at North Korea’s Sohae Launch Facility: Continued Infrastructure Improvements
  By 38 North 17 October 2016 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. Commercial satellite imagery from October 8 continues to show a low-level of activity at and around the launch pad and vertical engine test stand at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station. Given the absence of activities normally associated with an impending launch, such as the presence of cranes on the launch pad or activity at the VIP observation building, it seems unlikely that North Korea is planning a space launch in the near future. Instead, other activities around the Sohae facility suggest a focus on maintenance and infrastructure improvements. It remains unclear whether activity at the vertical engine test stand is related to an impending engine test or serves some other purpose. [SLV] [Sohae]
• Musudan Could Be Operational Sooner Than Expected
  By John Schilling 17 October 2016 North Korea seems to have tested its Musudan missile seven times this year, with only a single clear success to show for it. But the North Koreans aren’t simply repeating old failures. And they aren’t taking the slow path to developing a reliable system, with a year or so between each test to analyze the data and make improvements. That has been their practice in the past, and it is what we expected this time once they had one successful flight for the cameras. Instead, they are continuing with an aggressive test schedule that involves, at least this time, demonstrating new operational capabilities. That increases the probability of individual tests failing, but it means they will learn more with each test even if it does result in failure. If they continue at this rate, the Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missile could enter operational service sometime next year–much sooner than had previously been expected. [Musudan]
• DPRK fails in ballistic missile launch
  Xinhua, October 16, 2016 The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) had test-launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile, but it ended in a failure, Seoul's military said Sunday. South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said in a statement that the DPRK fired what is believed to be a Musudan missile at about 12:33 p.m. local time on Saturday (0333 GMT) near an airport in the DPRK's northwestern North Pyongan province. The test-launch, the JCS said, failed as the missile exploded soon after its liftoff. The failed launch came on the day that the United States and South Korea wrapped up their joint naval exercises that kicked off on Monday in all of the three seas around South Korea. [Musudan][Joint US military]
• N. Korea fails to launch Musudan missile
  By Yi Whan-woo North Korea presumably fired a Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) but the launch failed, the Joint Chief of Staff (JCS) said Sunday. "The missile exploded soon after its liftoff near an airbase in Kusong, North Pyongan Province at around 12:33 p.m., Saturday," the JCS said. The U.S. Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM) also said in a separate announcement that the launch was unsuccessful. If confirmed, this will be the Kim Jong-un regime's first test of a Musudan missile since June 22. It successfully fired one of the two Musudan missiles in back-to-back attempts then, advancing its IRBM technology against the U.S. and its allies. [Musudan]
• NUAC proposed redeploying US tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea
  Posted on : Oct.14,2016 18:53 KST Such a move would repudiate consensus on the need to denuclearize the Korean peninsula The National Unification Advisory Council (NUAC), a presidential organization according to the South Korean Constitution, submitted a policy report proposing the redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea, it was belatedly confirmed on Oct. 13. The NUAC is a constitutional organization established according to Article 92 of the Constitution to advise the South Korean President on the formulation of policies for peaceful unification. It is chaired by the President. In a sourcebook titled “Second Policy Proposal for Unification Policy 2016” published on its website on Oct. 13, the NUAC official proposed the redeployment of US tactical nuclear weapons as a means of “maintaining strong international coordination and deterring the North Korean nuclear program.” The US military’s tactical nuclear weapons were originally withdrawn in late 1991. [Tactical nuclear weapons]
• N.Korea 'Could Make 100 Nuclear Weapons by 2020'
  October 10, 2016 13:07 North Korea will have 50 to 100 nuclear weapons and be capable of striking any target in the U.S. mainland with nuclear-tipped long-range missiles within four years, the conservative Rand Corporation claimed Saturday. The Rand Corporation makes the prediction in a report for the leaders of the next U.S. administration, citing the North's nuclear weapons as one of the major threats facing it. The defense think tank points out that the North is believed to have enough nuclear materials to make 13 to 21 nuclear weapons. The regime will also likely ready a considerable number of long-range ballistic missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles, which could be tipped with nuclear warheads, between 2020 and 2025. Rand warns that the U.S. military could be incapacitated and its war plans frustrated if the North succeeds in securing a reliable and sustainable nuclear force. It also expresses worries about calls for a preemptive strike on the North or nuclear armament in South Korea. A preemptive strike against the North's nuclear and missile facilities using conventional weapons would only lead to escalation, it warns. Rand predicts growing calls in South Korea and Japan for nuclear armament out of disaffection with the U.S. nuclear umbrella. It advises the next U.S. administration to determine the limit of tolerance of the North's nuclear weapons development and decide what action to take when the moment comes. . [Nuclear capability]
• N. Korea could have up to 100 deliverable nuclear weapons in four years loading
  Updated : 2016-10-10 18:30 North Korea could have up to 100 nuclear weapons in as early as four years that can be delivered on long-range, road-mobile and submarine-launched ballistic missiles, a U.S. think tank has said. The RAND Corp. made the estimate in a report released over the weekend on five major threats the United States is facing around the world, putting a nuclear North Korea ahead of the four other threats -- Russia, the Islamic State, China and cyber threats. "The most recent open-source estimates suggest North Korea may already have enough fissile material to build between 13 and 21 nuclear weapons. By 2020, it could possess enough for 50 to 100," the think tank said. The North can already deliver nuclear weapons by aircraft or ship and perhaps by theater ballistic missiles, and it is now testing nuclear-capable missiles that could threaten targets across the Pacific Ocean, including the continental U.S., it said. [Nuclear capability]
• The End of North Korea’s Nuclear Program?
  Konstantin Asmolov On September 27, 2016, the North Korean Embassy in the Russian Federation circulated a series of articles stating that North Korea had “basically completed” development of nuclear weapons, which are now fully ready for practical application. One of the articles reads that, “during current nuclear tests the structure, behaviour, characteristics and power of standardized and unified nuclear warheads for further installation on ballistic missiles of Hwaseong artillery units – the strategic forces of the Korean People’s Army, were fully tested and approved.” Therefore, the WPK sends North Korean nuclear specialists its “warmest congratulations”. [Nuclear weapons]
• North Korea is ‘racing towards the nuclear finish line’
  By Anna Fifield October 8 at 1:00 AM SEOUL — North Korea conducted its first nuclear test exactly 10 years ago Sunday, exploding a crude atomic bomb and crossing what had long been considered a “red line.” A decade of condemnation, sanctions and ostracism later, the regime in Pyongyang has not pulled back. Far from it. Today, the country has a demonstrated nuclear weapons program, has made clear progress with missiles and is widely assumed to be able to put the two together. The only real question now is whether North Korea can deliver a nuclear-tipped missile to a target, and that is not much of a question. If it cannot yet, it will soon, analysts say. North Korea is “racing towards the nuclear finish line,” as Van Jackson, associate professor at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, a Pentagon think tank in Hawaii, puts it. [Hysteria] [Nuclear capability]
• Blue House monitoring North Korea closely for provocation around anniversary on Oct. 10
  Posted on : Oct.8,2016 11:49 KST Commercial satellite photos taken on Oct. 1, posted on 38 North, showing the new discovery of a large object believed to be a truck near the North Portal where the fifth nuclear test was carried out last month, along with what appeared to be construction materials or boxes next to the portal building. In the past, North Korea has carried out nuclear tests or missile launches around major national holidays The Blue House announced on Oct. 7 that it was “monitoring movements closely” in North Korea for a possible sixth nuclear test or long-range missile launch ahead of its Korean Workers’ Party anniversary on Oct. 10. Blue House spokesperson Jeong Yeong-guk’s reply came when asked in a meeting with reporters that morning about the possibility of “additional provocations” from Pyongyang. In the past, North Korea has held nuclear tests and missile launches around national holidays and anniversaries, including its first nuclear test a day before the KWP anniversary on Oct. 9, 2006. With its fifth nuclear test this year staged in time for the 68th anniversary of the North Korean government’s establishment on Sep. 9, analysts are suggesting the possibility of a sixth nuclear test or surprise SLBM or ICBM launch around the KWP anniversary cannot be ruled out. [Provocation] [Test] [Spin]
• North Korea’s Sohae Launch Facility: Activity at Launch Pad and Rocket Engine Test Area
  By 38 North 08 October 2016 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu. Summary Commercial satellite imagery from October 1 supports recent reports of increased activity at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station, including crates on the launch pad next to the gantry tower and vehicles near the fuel and oxidizer buildings. However, since both the gantry tower and the assembly structures on the launch pad are covered, it is unclear whether this activity is related to launch preparations or other operations. Additionally, work continues at the vertical engine test stand. [SLV]
• N. Korea shows increased activity at nuclear test site
  North Korea is showing increased activity at its nuclear test site in what could be part of preparations for a new test, a U.S. website monitoring the North said Thursday, amid concern the regime could undertake provocations to mark a key anniversary next week. Commercial satellite imagery taken on Oct. 1 of the Punggye-ri underground test site in the country's northeast "indicates continuing activity at all three tunnel complexes that could be used to conduct a nuclear test," the website 38 North said. [Test]
• US expert says THAAD can’t distinguish between real and decoy warheads
  Posted on : Oct.4,2016 16:24 KST South Korea’s Defense Ministry denies claim about THAAD’s detection range, saying system is limited to North Korean territory Theodore Postol, emeritus professor at MIT Theodore Postol, an emeritus professor at MIT and an authority in the area of missile defense, said on Oct. 3 that the THAAD system, which is currently slated to be deployed in Seongju County, North Gyeongsang Province, “lacks the ability to distinguish between real warheads and fake warheads.” This suggests that North Korea could render THAAD helpless by launching decoys during a missile attack. “The infrared seeker on THAAD interceptors is easily fooled by decoys,” said Postol, who was attending an academic debate on the 9th anniversary of the Oct. 4 Inter-Korean Summit Agreement that was held at the 63 Building in Seoul. The THAAD interceptors are guided by the AN/TPY-2 radar, but in the end they home in on the target with their onboard infrared seeker. The reason that THAAD’s interception range is so high - between 40 and 150 km - is that the higher air density below 40 km causes friction between the cover of the seeker and the outside air. This friction acts as noise that prevents the seeker from functioning properly. THAAD] [Efficacy] [Postol] [China confrontation]
• Is North Korea Building a New Submarine?
  By 38 North 30 September 2016 A 38 North exclusive by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. Summary Commercial satellite imagery strongly suggests that a naval construction program is underway at North Korea’s Sinpo South Shipyard, possibly to build a new submarine. While there is no direct evidence that the program is for a boat to carry the ballistic missile currently under development, the presence of an approximately 10-meter-in-diameter circular component outside the facility’s recently renovated fabrication hall may be intended as a construction-jig[1] or as a component for the pressure hull of a new submarine. However, it is also possible the ring may be related to another construction project. If this activity is indeed to build a new submarine, it would appear to be larger than North Korea’s GORAE-class experimental ballistic missile submarine (SSBA), which has a beam of approximately 7 meters.[2] [Submarine] [SLBM]
• Carter: Nuclear Triad ‘Bedrock of Our Security’
  By: Aaron Mehta, September 26, 2016 MINOT AIR FORCE BASE, N.D. — Calling the nuclear mission “the bedrock of our security, and the highest priority mission of the Department of Defense,” Secretary of Defense Ash Carter today offered a full-throated defense of the need to modernize all three legs of the nuclear triad. Carter’s comments came during a visit to Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota, home to both B-52s and Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles. Defense News is travelling with Carter this week. Under the fiscal year 2017 budget request, Carter said, the department pledged $19 billion to the nuclear enterprise, part of $108 billion planned over the next five years. The department has also spent around $10 billion over the last two years, the secretary said in prepared comments. The “nuclear triad” references the three arms of the US strategic posture — land-based ICBMs, airborne weapons carried by bombers, and submarine-launched atomic missiles. All of those programs are entering an age where they need to be modernized. [Nuclear weapons] [Double standards]
• US expert says North Korean KN-11 missiles would neutralize THAAD
  Posted on : Oct.3,2016 15:36 KST Theodore Postol, an emeritus professor at MIT, participates in a Minjoo Party foreign policy and security policy forum, at the National Assembly in Seoul, Oct. 2. (by Lee Jeong-woo, staff photographer) MIT professor Theodore Postol says instead of THAAD, South Korea could prepare an alternative system “While it is impossible to know how much progress North Korea has made on the KN-11 and other submarine-launched ballistic missiles, developing the KN-11 would inevitably neutralize THAAD.” [THAAD] [SLBM]
• 'S. Korea should prepare for nuclear armament,' says Gyeonggi governor
  A South Korean governor who is believed to be a potential presidential candidate for the ruling party has said the country should prepare for nuclear armament in the face of North Korea's growing nuclear threats. Gov. Nam Kyung-pil of Gyeonggi Province made the remarks in an interview with Yonhap News Agency Sunday, citing concerns the United States may withdraw its nuclear umbrella from over South Korea. [Nuclearisation] [Nuclear umbrella]

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SEPTEMBER 2016

• U.S. to Modernize Nuclear Force
  September 28, 2016 12:06 The U.S. will spend about US$108 billion over the next five years in preparation for a nuclear attack from hostile countries including North Korea, U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter told troops Monday. Carter was speaking in front of a B-52 bomber at Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota. "We face a nuclear landscape that continues to post challenges... Russia and North Korea are just two countries, though very different ones, that stand out in this evolving nuclear landscape," he said. The U.S. plans to invest $108 billion over the next five years, to "sustain and recapitalize" its nuclear force, he said. . © This is copyrighted material owned by Digital Chosun Inc. No part of it may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written permission. [Nuclear weapons] [Threat] [Pretext]
• N. Korea may conduct 6th nuclear test soon
  By Choi Sung-jin North Korea is highly likely to carry out its sixth nuclear test sooner rather than later, an expert said Friday. "There is the possibility that North Korea will conduct a test of an amplified nuclear bomb with far greater power than before in the near future," said Lee Chun-keun, a senior fellow of the Science and Technology Policy Institute, at a workshop. "There are comparably certain technological demands and elements for improvement." "Although North Korea has made five nuclear tests, it has not reached a level of sufficient standardization," Lee said. "The North may mass produce a few types of standardized warheads and deploy them to meet its immediate military demands but it will need to carry out additional tests to improve or optimize them." [Test] [Nuclear capability]
• Senior White House official decries calls for South Korea to get nuclear weapons
  Posted on : Sep.23,2016 18:01 KST Jon Wolfsthal says South Koreans benefit greatly from being party to the nonproliferation treaty A senior White House official reaffirmed Washington’s firm opposition to calls among South Korean conservatives for nuclear armament in response to the North Korean nuclear issue. “We think it's not in our interest and in South Korea's interest for South Korea to pursue nuclear weapons,” White House National Security Council senior director for arms control and nonproliferation Jon Wolfsthal told reporters on Sept. 21 after a keynote speech in Washington for the fourth US-ROK Dialogue, organized by the East Asia Foundation and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. “[South Koreans] are voluntarily and legally bound under the nonproliferation treaty (NPT) in a way that benefits them greatly,” he said. Wolfsthal added that the US does not view South Korean nuclear armament as necessary. [Nuclearisation]
• CTBT Preparatory Commission rather than UNSC should deal with nuclear tests - Russian Foreign Ministry
  September 23, 2016 13:36 MOSCOW. Sept 23 (Interfax) - Moscow is skeptical about a draft resolution of the UN Security Council supporting the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), Russian Foreign Ministry Non-Proliferation and Arms Control Department Director Mikhail Ulyanov said. "We were highly skeptical about this resolution drafted and submitted by the American partners," Ulyanov said at a press conference on Friday. Nuclear test issues should be addressed by the UN CTBT Preparatory Commission, rather than the UN Security Council, he said. "It was rather strange that the UN Security Council barged into an alien jurisdiction without any need whatsoever, and some of its members even tried to impose new obligations, in addition to those prescribed by the treaty, on participating states," Ulyanov said. It is odd that the initiative is coming from the United States, which has yet to ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, he said. [Test] [Double standards] [CTBT]
• [News analysis] How does Japan justify keeping such a huge stock of plutonium?
  Posted on : Sep.22,2016 17:38 KST The Monju fast-breeder reactor, part of the Tsuruga Nuclear Power Plant in Japan Japan had 47.8 tons of plutonium as of the end of 2015, and this week decided to close the Monju fast-breeder reactor Japan‘s decision on Sep. 21 to shut down its Monju fast-breeder reactor, which had served as a pretext for holding plutonium, is expected to create more controversy in East Asia, which is already embroiled with conflict because of North Korea’s nuclear program. Another question is how Japan will manage to retain its supply of plutonium after closing the Monju reactor. According to a document that was made public by the Japanese Cabinet Office in July, Japan held 47.8 tons of plutonium as of the end of 2015. Since 8 kg of plutonium is needed to manufacture a single nuclear warhead, that’s enough plutonium to make 6,000 warheads. Considering that the whole world was horrified to learn that North Korea is extracting plutonium from its 5 megawatt graphite-moderated reactor in Yongbyon, it is difficult to understand this double standard. Japan’s justification for this has been its plan for a “nuclear fuel cycle” that it has pursued for several decades. Japan’s argument has been that, while it does possess a huge amount of plutonium, its purpose is to peacefully burn it in fast-breeder reactors, not to create nuclear weapons as North Korea is doing. Responding to criticism from the international community about its plutonium stockpile, Japan has maintained that it will not store plutonium that it does not intend to use. In apparent recognition of the awkwardness of this situation, the Japanese government reconfirmed its plans to continue executing its nuclear fuel cycle plan, even after it shuts down the Monju reactor. [Plutonium] [Japanese remilitarisation] [Nuclearisation] [Nuclear fuel cycle]
• S. Korea needs no nuclear weapons
  Updated : 2016-09-22 15:33 Neither South Korea's own nuclear armament nor redeployment of U.S. nuclear weapons in the country would enhance the country's security against North Korea, a senior White House official said Wednesday. "I don't believe that North Korea will be any more deterred from taking military action against the South if we have nuclear weapons on the peninsula because North Korea, China, the rest of the world know that we have military capabilities, conventional and otherwise, that can be launched from the United States and elsewhere," Jon Wolfsthal, senior director for arms control and nonproliferation at the White House's National Security Council, told reporters. [Nuclearisation] [Tactical nuclear weapons]
• [Column] The costs if South Korea wants its own nuclear weapons
  Posted on : Sep.21,2016 16:16 KST North Korea carried out another nuclear test. In regard to this fifth nuclear test, which it described as a “nuclear warhead detonation test,” North Korea used the terms “standardization,” “miniaturization,” “lightweight,” and “diversification.” A nuclear warhead detonation test is a test that is conducted with the objective of loading a nuclear warhead on a missile. This makes it more likely that North Korea will evolve a system capable of the mass production of nuclear weapons. It also appears that North Korea’s nuclear tests are no longer desperate measures; they are instead routine behaviors designed to secure a nuclear arsenal. The North is now likely to be able to conduct a nuclear test whenever it wants. Because of North Korea’s misplaced trust in nuclear weapons, rage and a sense of helplessness are rampant in South Korean society. That’s how sick and tired South Koreans are of North Korea’s nuclear program. Disturbingly, the argument that South Korea should also acquire its own nuclear weapons to counter North Korea has recently began to emerge not from the far right but rather from the ruling Saenuri Party. [Nuclearisation]
• 'S. Korea needs US nuclear arms'
  By Kim Hyo-jin Lawmakers receive explanations about North Korea's missile capability during an interpellation session at the National Assembly, Wednesday. / Yonhap Lawmakers urged the government to consider requesting the redeployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea, Wednesday, as a countermeasure against North Korea's nuclear provocations. Ruling Saenuri Party lawmakers renewed their calls for nuclear armament during an interpellation session, saying it would be an "effective measure" to defend the country from the North's accelerating nuclear and missile threats. They claimed redeploying U.S. tactical nuclear weapons can be a feasible option to counter North Korea in a short period of time. [Tactical nuclear weapons]
• DPRK conducts test of 'new type of engine of carrier rocket'
  Xinhua, September 20, 2016 The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has successfully conducted a ground test of a new rocket engine, Yonhap quoted DPRK's state-run news agency as reporting on Tuesday. DPRK leader Kim Jong-un visited the Sohae Space Center in the North's western region to guide the test of "a new type high-power engine of a carrier rocket for the geo-stationary satellite," Yonhap quoted the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) as saying. The successful manufacturing of the engine provides sufficient carrier capability for launching various kinds of satellites, including Earth observation satellites, and the launch was ordered by Kim, Yonhap reported. [SLV] [Satellite]
• Curbing North Korea’s nuclear ambitions
  14 September 2016 Author: Ron Huisken, ANU As an aspirant nuclear state, North Korea is atypical in nearly every way. It is smaller, poorer, less technologically developed, more isolated, more highly militarised and more authoritarian. Ryoo Yong-gyu, Earthquake and Volcano Monitoring Division Director, points at where seismic waves observed in South Korea came from, during a media briefing at Korea Meteorological Administration in Seoul, South Korea, 9 September 2016. (Photo: Reuters/Kim Hong-Ji). North Korea conducted its fifth nuclear test on Friday 9 September, ten years after it first demonstrated such a capacity. Its pace of development — an average of one test every two years — is quite slow compared to the experience of other aspiring nuclear states. This slow development rate is due in part to the limited stocks of weapons-grade plutonium and highly enriched uranium available to Pyongyang. More generally, it indicates that acquiring a nuclear weapons capability has stressed North Korea’s economic, organisational, scientific and engineering capacities even more than was the case in other states that have travelled this road. [Test] [Nuclear capacity]
• North Korea Tests New Rocket Engine: Test Preparations Seen at Sohae
  By 38 North 19 September 2016 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. and Jack Liu. On September 20, KCNA reported on Kim Jong Un guiding a “ground jet test of a new type of high-power engine of a carrier rocket for the geo-stationary satellite” from the Sohae Satellite Launching Station. This test was “aimed to make a final confirmation of the feature of combustion chamber, operation accuracy of valves and control systems and structural reliability of the engine during 200 seconds-long working time.” Commercial satellite imagery from September 17 showed preparations for this new engine test, including the presence of a heavy lift crane on the Vertical Engine Test Stand, positioning of the rail-mounted environmental shelter mid-way up the approach ramp and several vehicles at the VIP observation area. This test represents an anticipated and significant step in the continued development of larger, more advanced space launch vehicles. [SLV]
• Tiangong-2 takes China one step closer to space station
  Xinhua, September 16, 2016 China's space lab Tiangong-2 roars into the air on the back of a Long March-2F rocket from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in northwest China, Sept. 15, 2016. (Xinhua/Ju Zhenhua) China's Tiangong-2 space lab blasted off on Thursday, marking another milestone in its increasingly ambitious space program, which envisions a mission to Mars by the end of this decade and its own space station by around 2020. In a cloud of smoke underneath a mid-autumn full moon, Tiangong-2 roared into the air at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in northwest China's Gobi desert, on the back of a Long March-2F T2 rocket at 10:04 p.m. Beijing Time. The Long March-2F T2 is a two-stage launch vehicle that uses four strap-on boosters during its first stage. [Space] [SLV]
• [Analysis] In getting nukes, S. Korea would become int’l pariah…just like N. Korea
  Posted on : Sep.15,2016 20:22 KST Ruling party’s calls for S. Korea to arm itself with nukes would lead to diplomatic and economic ruin The ruling Saenuri Party has been the epicenter for strong calls for South Korea's nuclear armament in the wake of North Korea's fifth nuclear test. After the fourth test in January, then-party floor leader Won Yoo-chul was one of the only voices in favor; this time around, party leader Lee Jung-hyun and leading presidential contenders Kim Moo-sung, Kim Moon-soo, and Oh Sei-hoon added theirs. Thirty-one Saenuri lawmakers, including current floor leader Chung Jin-suk, went so far as to issue a deliberately bold statement on the matter in the name of the Association of Saenuri Party National Assembly Members for a Resolution of the North Korean Nuclear Issue (also called the Nuclear Forum). "We must avail ourselves of all possible means to protect the security of the Republic of Korea and its citizens, including nuclear armament," it read. [Nuclearisation] [OPCON]
• Experts say by 2020, North Korea will “perfect” nuclear warhead technology
  Posted on : Sep.15,2016 20:34 KST On Sept. 6, the Rodong Sinmun, the official newspaper of the North’s ruling Workers’ Party, reported, “Comrade Kim Jong-un supervised an on-site training exercise involving a ballistic missile launch by the Hwasong artillery units of the North Korean People’s Army’s Strategic Force.” A related color photo ran on the front page of the newspaper. Upon close inspection of the photo, the ballistic missile fired on Sept. 5 (right) appears to have an improved warhead. On the left is a photo of a missile fired on July 19, 2016. (Yonhap News) Moving faster than predicted, addressing growing capability will require more than sanctions, say US analysts By 2020, North Korea will perfect its nuclear warhead technology and be poised to threaten the continental US, American analysts say. With North Korea carrying out its fifth nuclear test in the face of eight months of international sanctions and pressure, multiple figures are arguing that the North Korean nuclear issue should be regarded not as the object of strategic patience but rather as an imminent threat. “North Korea’s fifth nuclear test is ominous not only because the country is slowly mastering atomic weaponry, but because it is making headway in developing missiles that could hurl nuclear warheads halfway around the globe, threatening Washington and New York City,” the New York Times said on Sept. 10. [Nuclear capability]
• [Editorial] Security huckers’ calls for nuclear armament just make security situation worse
  Posted on : Sep.16,2016 20:05 KST Key figures in the ruling Saenuri Party have been leading a charge to bring South Korea’s nuclear armament and the positioning of strategic nuclear weapons into public debate. The military is actively considering a “Massive Punishment and Retaliation” operation that would completely obliterate certain parts of Pyongyang in the event of an emergency. This dangerous trend is a reaction in the wake of North Korea’s fifth nuclear test. Rather than any kind of effort to solve the nuclear issue, it’s an attempt to cover up the administration’s incompetence and exploit a security crisis for political gain. The claim that South Korea needs its own nuclear weapons to counter North Korea is utterly unrealistic. To develop nuclear weapons, we would have to withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, effectively making enemies of the entire global community. We would be like North Korea is now - isolated and facing sanctions and pressures from the international community. That’s to say nothing of the severe blow in store for the South Korean economy. The alliance with the US would also likely be endangered. And even if we go through all the hardship of gaining nuclear weapons, it doesn’t mean our security situation would improve. Instead, it will set off a “chicken race” as Japan and other countries involved in Korean Peninsula issues secure their own nuclear weapons. The calls for redeploying US tactical nuclear weapons, which were completely pulled out over two decades ago, is another case of unrealistic agitation. When the US keeps stressing “extended deterrence,” its message is that it can provide a nuclear deterrent through fighter planes, submarines, ballistic missiles, and the like without deploying any nuclear weapons in South Korea. The very fact that we’re leaning on the US to deploy weapons we don’t even have the right to operate ourselves is a clear illustration of our incompetence when it comes to security. The leaking of wartime plans for a massive retaliation operation - quite apart from whether that’s even realistic - is inappropriate behavior by military authorities. We have to wonder if their aim isn’t just to blur the focus of the nuclear issue, but to actively stir up tensions as an excuse to build up armaments. [Nuclearisation]
• UN chief expresses opposition to S. Korea's nuclear armament
  U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon expressed opposition Thursday to growing calls in South Korea for nuclear armament, saying such a move runs counter to international norms, a South Korean lawmaker said. [Nuclearisation] [Ban Ki-moon]
• No radiation traces from N. Korean nuclear test in South
  South Korea has yet to find any traces of radioactive materials from North Korea's latest nuclear test, a nuclear safety commission here said Thursday, confirming the country remains safe from nuclear fallout. "The Nuclear Safety and Security Commission has not found any traces of radionuclides, such as xenon, in its tests of soil, water and air samples following North Korea's fifth nuclear test," the commission said in a released statement. The commission has been testing samples every 12 hours since Monday, two days after the communist North said it successfully conducted its latest nuclear detonation test. The tests are partly aimed at independently confirming whether the North has in fact conducted another nuclear test. "The commission believes its failure to detect xenon and other radionuclides so far is because there exist only minuscule amounts of such elements or due to air currents blowing such elements away from the country," it said. The commission added South Korea's background radiation currently remains at the usual level of 50-300 nanosieverts per hour, apparently unaffected by the North's nuclear test. (Yonhap) [Test] [Radiation]
• Post Test Activity at Punggye-ri
  By 38 North 16 September 2016 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. and Jack Liu. On September 9, 2016, North Korea conducted its fifth—and reportedly largest—nuclear test to date at its Punggye-ri nuclear test site. Current estimates place the epicenter of the 5.2 magnitude test at approximately 41°17’54.60”N, 129°4’40.80”E­—or roughly 200-300 meters east of the estimated January 2016 epicenter and almost directly under the peak of Mt. Mantap.[1] This area is 2.2 km northwest of the North Portal—the site of three previous tests and the most probable site of this test. Commercial satellite imagery from September 15 shows a low level of post-test activity at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site, indicating extensive efforts at camouflage, concealment and deception to minimize the collection of detailed information by satellites.[2] The flooding reported in the northeast provinces caused by Typhoon Lionrock does not appear to have affected the Punggye-ri facility to any degree of significance, with the possible exception of minor flooding of the fords along the main access road. While this is the fourth test to be conducted from the North Portal, there is no way of knowing whether additional tunnels exist at this Portal. Moreover, the presence of unused tunnels at the West and South Portals mean North Korea could conduct further nuclear tests at Punggye-ri with little to no notice. [Test]
• Colin Powell in Leaked Email Says Israel Has 200 Nukes
  By Jack Moore On 9/16/16 at 5:41 AM Former U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell alleged that Israel has a nuclear arsenal of 200 warheads, a thorny subject that Israel never comments on, according to an email that Russian hackers leaked earlier this week. Israel is not a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and maintains a policy of nuclear ambiguity, refusing to speak about its rumored nuclear arsenal and never even going as far as to admit that it has possession of nuclear weapons. But Powell may have given away the size of Israel’s nuclear arsenal. Speaking to Democratic party donor Jeffrey Leeds about Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech to the U.S. Congress focusing on the Iranian nuclear deal, he wrote that Iran would never use a nuclear weapon if it was able to develop one. He then stated that Israel has hundreds of nukes and Washington thousands, suggesting that such firepower would deter any Iranian action. [Israel] [Iran] [Nuclear weapons] [US Middle East Strategy]
• Preventing a Nuclear South Korea
  By LEE Byong-Chul 16 September 2016 Will North Korea's growing nuclear program force South Korea to go nuclear too? In a report projecting how North Korea’s nuclear arsenal may grow over the next few years, mid- to high-end scenarios estimated that the North could build upwards of 50-100 nuclear weapons by 2020,[1] approaching the size of arsenals in India and Pakistan.[2] By enabling the DPRK to credibly threaten a nuclear second strike against the United States, a North Korean arsenal of this size would undermine the credibility of the “nuclear umbrella” that Washington now extends to South Korea. Seoul, in turn, faces increasing pressure to develop its own nuclear weapons capability, especially as North Korea continues nuclear and missile testing at a rapid and unrelenting pace. If US President Obama wants to dissuade the South from pursuing its own nuclear deterrent, his administration must act to provide Seoul with more specific and realistic options to ease some of its security concerns. [Nuclearisation]
• North Korea Reached 'Point of No Return' in Obtaining Nuclear Technology
  Russian expert on nuclear weapons Vladimir Khrustalev told Sputnik that North Korea has reached a "point of no return" in the nuclear field and is likely to possess all necessary technology for building nuclear weapons. Friday's nuclear test carried out by North Korea for the fifth time has once again shown that despite tough Western sanctions the country has been able to still build nuclear weapons. According to Khrustalev, the recent nuclear test could mean significant progress in the development of North Korea's nuclear program. "There is definitely a very noticeable progress," the expert told Sputnik. "What we can say quite confidently is that the North Koreans are moving towards improving their nuclear capacity. In addition, they have now tested a standard missile warhead — at least, there is a corresponding official statement about that. And, based on the developments that they have shown in recent years, as well as the general logic, everything seems to be quite consistent with the developments common for other nuclear powers in the past," Khrustalev stated. Replying to the question, of whether the possession of nuclear weapons by North Korea will pose a threat to other countries, in particular Russia and China, the expert said that such scenario is quite unlikely. "Russia and China are not directly threatened by these missiles. Like any other means of nuclear deterrence, they threaten those would attack the owner of nuclear weapons. It is obvious that it makes no sense for the DPRK to ‘go crazy' and press the red button without any reason. They could commit suicide in many other, simpler ways," the expert said. According to Khrustalev, what North Korea seeks to do is to create a means of guaranteed credible deterrence which would give the country a relatively high chance of survival in case of a potential attack. "In this case, any scenario of attack on the DPRK makes no sense because the attacker would pay a price that would scare away anyone considering such attempts. In fact, it is a reproduction of the model, which was between the Soviet Union and the United States and which now exists between India and Pakistan," the expert concluded. [Test] [Deterrence]
• North Korea nuclear test: Why now and why does it matter?
  9 September 2016 North Korea has carried out what appears to be its largest ever nuclear test, sparking global indignation. This is the country's fifth test. Why are the North Koreans doing it, and why is it important? Why now? Well, there have been some reasons given by the North Koreans themselves - and then there are some that need to be read between the lines: ?Officially, it was a demonstration of the "toughest will" of the Korean people to show they can retaliate to an attack by enemies. It was also a show against the "racket of threat and sanctions" that the nation has suffered at the hands of the global community via the UN ?Then came the technical reasons - to hone the ability to put nuclear warheads on ballistic missiles (although many experts still doubt this has been effectively achieved) ?And finally it was a show of national "dignity", an important concept in North Korea backed up by the fact it came on National Day, a traditional time to show off military muscle Unstated, but clearly obvious, was anger at US and South Korean plans to install an anti-missile defence system in the South, along with the traditional lambasting of the annual US-South Korea joint military exercises. Why does it matter? North Korea is an isolated communist nation run by an unpredictable 32-year-old "supreme leader" with his hands on an unspecified nuclear arsenal and seemingly immune to any global pressure to give it up. Kim Jong-un's aggression and invective show no sign of abating. If anything they are getting worse. The North's southern neighbour- still technically at war with the North because the 1950-53 conflict ended in an armistice, not a treaty - and Japan are particularly nervous. The North has also often stated its aim of targeting the US. [Test] [Media] [Bizarre] [Unpredictable]
• N.Korea 'Could Conduct Nuclear Test Any Time'
  North Korea is ready to conduct another nuclear test any time, the Defense Ministry here said Monday. "Assessment by South Korean and U.S. intelligence is that the North is ready for an additional nuclear test in the Punggye-ri area whenever it wants," Defense Ministry spokesman Moon Sang-gyun told reporters. "North Korea has a couple of tunnels where it can conduct an additional nuclear test," Moon added. There are thought to be three main tunnels at the Punggye-ri site, each with branch tunnels that lead to other test areas. Tunnel No. 1 was sealed after the first test in 2006, while the second to fifth nuclear tests took place in tunnel No. 2. According to Moon, the additional tests could take place in the remaining branch shafts of tunnel No. 2 or tunnel No. 3. Earlier, National Intelligence Service chief Lee Byung-ho was summoned to the National Assembly after the spy agency was taken by surprise by the latest test on Friday. Lee told lawmakers he "would not be surprised" if the North conducts a sixth and even seventh nuclear test. Kim Hwang-rok, head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, met with the heads of ruling and opposition parties and also said North Korea could conduct more nuclear tests judging by the existence of "two to three more tunnels." The intervals between the North's nuclear tests have shrunk from over three years to eight months. The North claimed the fourth test in January was of a hydrogen bomb, but that seems unlikely. The latest and most powerful test so far was of a "warhead" for a missile, North Korean state media have claimed. [Test]
• These North Korean missile launches are adding up to something very troubling
  By Anna Fifield September 9 at 4:00 AM ? In this undated image made from video distributed on Tuesday, Sept. 6, 2016, by North Korean broadcaster KRT, a missile is launched during a drill at an undisclosed location in North Korea. (AP) SEOUL — North Korea is touting technological progress in its nuclear program, saying after a nuclear test Friday that it can now produce “smaller, lighter and diversified nuclear warheads of higher strike power.” But it is also making strides in its missile program, analysts say — advances that could enable it to outsmart missile defense systems, which could make the missiles more attractive to potential customers. [Missiles] [Deterrence] [Proliferation]
• DPRK announces success of nuclear warhead test
  Xinhua, September 9, 2016 The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) said Friday that it successfully conducted a nuclear warhead explosion test at the northern nuclear test ground, the fifth by the country since 2006. People watch a TV broadcasting a suspected nuclear test held by Democratic People's Republic of Korea, at a train station in Seoul, South Korea, Sept. 9, 2016. South Korea's military believed the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) might have conducted the "most powerful" nuclear test so far on Friday after an artificial earthquake was detected at a site where its fourth nuclear test was carried out earlier this year. (Xinhua/Yao Qilin) The test aimed to judge the power of a newly developed nuclear warhead, said the DPRK Nuclear Weapons Institute. "This is definitely a higher level of DPRK's technology of mounting nuclear warheads on ballistic rockets," the official KCNA news agency quoted the institute as saying in a statement. The test "examined and confirmed the structure and specific features of the movement of a nuclear warhead that has been standardized to be mounted on strategic ballistic rockets of the Hwasong artillery units" of the strategic force of the Korean People's Army, said the statement. Factors measured in the test include "explosion might, nuclear material use coefficient," the statement said. The test had no radioactivity leakage or adverse impact on the surrounding environment, it added. [Test] [Warhead]
• N.Korea Conducts Fresh Nuke Test
  A seismic tremor was detected near North Korea's nuclear test site on Friday morning, suggesting that North Korea has conducted its fifth and most powerful nuclear test so far. The European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre said it detected a 5.0-magnitutde tremor in Punggye-ri, North Hamgyong Province. A tremor of similar strength was recorded when the North carried out the fourth nuclear test on Jan. 6. Reuters cited an expert as saying the seismic magnitude and surface level "indicated a blast with a 20- to 30-kilotonne yield. Such a yield would make this test, if confirmed, larger than the nuclear bomb dropped on the Japanese city of Hiroshima in World War II and potentially bigger than that dropped on Nagasaki soon after." A Defense Ministry official here said, "We believe the North conducted a nuclear test this morning and are working to find out more about it." He added that it seems to have been the biggest test so far with a yield of 10 kt, compared to 6 kt in the previous test. President Park Geun-hye was swift to accuse the North of "maniacal recklessness' in conducting yet another test in the face of intense global condemnation and heavy sanctions. [Test]
• N.Korea Plays Hide-and-Seek with Spy Satellites
  North Korea hid its launchers in tunnels before firing three ballistic missiles on Monday to avoid the prying eyes of South Korean and U.S. intelligence agencies. "Analysis of North Korean video footage revealed a tunnel just behind the mobile launchers that fired the three missiles," an intelligence source here said. "We're closely analyzing the data, because the tunnels could be used to conceal mobile missile launchers from South Korean and U.S. monitoring." There are in fact two arched tunnels behind the three mobile launchers shown in the North Korean video footage. The North was probably hiding them in the tunnels and exposing them only for perhaps 30 minutes to an hour at a time to prep them for launch. Spies were completely blindsided when the North launched the missiles on Monday. Seoul has been working on its own missile defense that would destroy North Korean nuclear missile within 30 minutes of launch, but that is predicated on anticipating the launch. North Korea is believed to have built at least 18 tunnels around Pyongyang and Kaesong to hide mobile missile launchers. [Missiles] [Intelligence]
• Whose Nukes to Worry About?
  by James Bradley September 9, 2016 North Korea carried out its fifth nuclear test on Friday, September 9. President Obama has condemned the action while the Pentagon called it a “serious provocation.” Ho-hum, here we go again. Every year America pays its vassal-state South Korea huge sums of U.S. taxpayer money to mount 300,000-man-strong military “games” that threaten North Korea. North Koreans view images that never seem to make it to U.S. kitchen tables: hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of U.S. armaments swarming in from the sea, hundreds of tanks and thousands of troops–their flyboysturrets and rifles pointed north—and nuclear-capable U.S. warplanes screaming overhead. But when a young dictator straight out of central casting responds to U.S. threats with an underground test on North Korea’s founding day, it’s the #1 first story on the front page of the New York Times. [Test]
• N. Korea believed to have conducted 5th nuclear test
  Posted on : Sep.9,2016 15:03 KST Through analyzing this satellite photo, the North Korean affairs website 38 North detected new activity at a nuclear testing site near Punggye Village, North Hamgyong Province, on Sept. 8. The website explained that it was uncertain whether preparations for a nuclear test were being made at the site. (provided by 38 North/Yonhap News) Detonation likely timed to coincide with founding anniversary of N. Korea; emergency meeting convened An artificial earthquake was detected near Punggye Village in North Korea. It is presumed that North Korea carried out a fifth nuclear test. “At about 9:30 am, artificial seismic waves with a magnitude of 5.0 were detected in the vicinity of Punggye Village in North Korea. We are currently analyzing whether this was a nuclear test,” South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff stated. North Korea appears to have carried out the nuclear test to mark the anniversary of the regime’s establishment on Sept. 9. Around 10 am, the Korea Meteorological Administration in South Korea reported, “An earthquake with a magnitude of 5.0 occurred around 9:30 am near Kilju County in North Hamgyong Province, North Korea. This is presumed to have been an artificial earthquake.” According to a document that appeared on the website of the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre, seismic waves with a magnitude of 5.3 on the Richter scale were detected at 41.19 north and 129.05 east in North Korea. The institute also stated that the epicenter was estimated to have been 15 km below the surface and that the seismic waves were detected at exactly 9 am local time. [Test]
• N. Korean National Day nuke test was strongest to date
  Posted on : Sep.9,2016 15:06 KST Yonhap News Agency reported on July 17 increased signs of activity at the Punggye Village test site in North Korea’s North Hamgyong Province, suggesting the possibility of a fifth nuclear test. The Punggye site is where the third and fourth nuclear tests were conducted. The image above, from the North Korea-affairs website 38 North, shows increased activity at the site. Despite impact, detonation failed if it was meant to be hydrogen bomb test: seismic expert The nuclear test that North Korea conducted on Sept. 9 is believed to have been the most powerful of the five tests it has conducted thus far. “North Korea’s nuclear test on Sept. 9 occurred to the east of Punggye Village, the site of the fourth nuclear test. The blast had a force of about 10 kilotons, give or take a couple, which is thought to be the strongest of any of North Korea’s five nuclear tests,” said one seismic expert. “If this were supposed to be a test of a hydrogen bomb, it failed,” the expert added. The nuclear test occurred at 9:00:01 in the North Korean time zone (9:30:01 in the South Korean time zone). Pyongyang is thought to have planned for the blast to occur at exactly 9 am on Sept. 9, the anniversary of the establishment of the North Korean regime. By Lee Geun-young, senior staff writer [Test]
• North Korea claims test of miniaturized nuclear warhead
  A briefing about the test at the nuclear site at Punggye-ri, North Hamgyong Province, is held at the Korea Meteorological Administration. / Yonhap Pyongyang conducts fifth and most powerful experiment By Jun Ji-hye North Korea conducted its fifth nuclear test, Friday, claiming to have detonated a warhead successfully. The explosion was estimated at 10 kilotons, which is equivalent to 10,000 tons of TNT ? the most powerful yet in the North's five tests. The latest one, which followed a series of ballistic missile launches, came only eight months after the fourth test in January, and it is the first time for the North to conduct two in a year. Analysts here said the North is now apparently in the final stages of making a nuclear warhead small enough to put on a missile. If the Pyongyang's claims are true, it means the country will be able to do this soon. [Test] [Warhead] [Miniaturization]
• North Korea hails nuke test 'successful'
  North Korea has conducted a "successful" fifth nuclear test, state-run TV said Friday afternoon. "Scientists (from)... the DPRK carried out a nuclear explosion test for the judgment of the power of a nuclear warhead newly studied and manufactured by them at the northern nuclear test ground," a TV announcer said, using the North's official name. "The Central Committee of the (ruling) Workers' Party of Korea sent warm congratulations to nuclear scientists of the northern nuclear test ground on the successful nuclear warhead explosion test." The test will also enable the North to produce "as many as it wants (of) a variety of smaller, lighter and diversified nuclear warheads of higher strike power," she said. The Friday test "examined and confirmed" specific features of a nuclear warhead designed to be mounted on ballistic missiles, the announcer said, adding there was no radioactive leakage or adverse environmental impact caused by the test. The North said the test shows the country is ready to hit back if provoked by enemies including the United States, and that it will continue its efforts to strengthen the quantity and quality of its nuclear weapons. The North did not say exactly when and where the test took place. But the announcement came hours after Seoul said Pyongyang had staged another atomic test in its Punggye-ri nuclear test site near the border with China. The latest test, with an estimated yield of 10 kilotons, is the largest-ever staged by Pyongyang, according to South Korean military. [Test]
• 'Nuclear test hastens N. Korea's self-destruction'
  President Park Geun-hye speaks in an emergency meeting at Cheong Wa Dae, Friday. She convened the meeting with high-ranking security officials to discuss countermeasures following North Korea's fifth nuclear test. / Yonhap Park shortens trip to Laos By Kang Seung-woo VIENTIANE, Laos ? President Park Geun-hye condemned North Korea's fifth nuclear test, Friday, saying it would hasten its self-destruction. Following the test, she held a phone conversation with U.S. President Barack Obama, who was aboard Air Force One returning home from Laos, to discuss ways to respond to the provocation. Park herself returned home earlier than scheduled from Laos, where she attended international security forums along with Obama and other leaders. Laos was the last leg of Park's week-long three-nation trip that also included Russia and China. On her arrival, she convened an emergency meeting of top security and foreign affairs officials to discuss measures to tackle the test, and lambasted the North's leader Kim Jong-un. Park said, "Kim's mental condition is out of control," adding that the North's provocation was a frontal challenge to the international community, and has pushed past the limits of patience of South Korea and other countries. [Test] [Park Geun-hye]
• North Korea's nuclear test: ?what should the world expect next?
  Why now? And what does it mean for diplomatic relations? A panel of experts share their thoughts with NK News Chad O'Carroll for NK News Friday 9 September 2016 15.43 BST North Korea’s latest nuclear test, once again, seems to have taken everyone by surprise. Coming only nine months after its last nuclear detonation and following ever-advancing ballistic missile tests, including a successful submarine launch just two weeks ago, Kim Jong-un’s latest wake-up call to world leaders will be hard to ignore. But why now? And, for a leadership recently experiencing a flurry of high-profile defections, what does the latest test mean about stability in Pyongyang? [Test] [Pundit] [Media]
• Obama should take North Korea’s nuclear threat more seriously
  By Editorial Board September 9 at 4:51 PM NORTH KOREA’S fifth nuclear test, on Friday, its largest yet, prompted South Korea’s president to describe North Korea’s ruler, Kim Jong Un, as “spiraling out of control.” There’s a basis for that: In defiance of mounting international sanctions, the Kim regime has now staged two nuclear tests in nine months, along with a steady stream of illegal missile launches. As South Korean leader Park Geun-hye put it, the young dictator “is not listening to any words from the international community or neighboring countries in his attempt to cling to power.” [Test] [US NK policy]
• A second strike on nuclear ‘no first use’
  Author: Hugh White, ANU 6 September 2016 There are two reasons to agree with Gareth Evans that the United States should join other nuclear powers and declare that it would never be the first to use nuclear weapons in a conflict by making a ‘No First Use’ (NFU) declaration. The US and Japanese national flags are hoisted next to a traditional Okinawan Shisa statue at the US Marine’s Camp Foster in Ginowan, on the southern island of Okinawa, Japan, 18 June 2016. (Photo: Reuters/Jim Kelly). The first reason is that it would take the world one small but significant step towards Barack Obama’s goal of abolishing nuclear weapons. A NFU declaration implies that the only purpose of nuclear weapons is to deter — through the threat of retaliation — their use by others. Then if no one else has them, no one needs them — making the argument for abolition a bit easier to win. Abolishing nuclear weapons, if it could ever be done, would make the world a safer place. [No First Use] [US global strategy]
• How Israel Stole the Bomb
  September 11, 2016 Exclusive: When Israel launched a covert scheme to steal material and secrets to build a nuclear bomb, U.S. officials looked the other way and obstructed investigations, as described in a book reviewed by James DiEugenio. By James DiEugenio In 1968, CIA Director Richard Helms was presented with a disturbing National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) stating that Israel had obtained atomic weapons, a dangerous development that occurred earlier than the CIA had anticipated. It was particularly dangerous because just the year before, the Six Day War had marked the beginning of open hostilities between the Israelis and Arab nation states. To prevail, Israel had launched preemptive air attacks against Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Iraq at the start of the conflict. Considering that violent backdrop, Helms immediately arranged a meeting with President Lyndon Johnson to inform him of this troubling milestone. [Israel] [Nuclear weapons]
• North Korea’s Nuclear Test: A Reflection Of Multiple Failures? – Analysis
  By Observer Research Foundation September 11, 2016 By Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan North Korea conducted its fifth nuclear test Friday morning at 9.00 am local time in yet another defiance of UN resolutions. The South Korean government reported that this was possibly the biggest explosion so far and it appears that Pyongyang is beginning to make serious nuclear advances. South Korean President Park Guen-hye termed the test an act of “self destruction“; the US issued a warning of “serious consequences.” Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reacted to the test saying it “absolutely cannot condone” the test and would “protest adamantly” to North Korea. He added that Pyongyang’s “nuclear development is becoming a graver threat to Japan’s safety and severely undermines the peace and safety of the region and the international community.” China too called upon the North Korean’s regime to exercise restraint and avoid further action, though it appeared to justify Pyongyang’s action by suggesting that it was possibly a response to the deployment of the US anti-missile defence system THAAD. Yukiya Amano, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency too stated that test was in violation of UN Security Council resolutions and that it is “a deeply troubling and regrettable act.” Given the nature of the regime in North Korea, there is no clear information on the kind of yield, the type of weapon, among other things. South Korea reported that it may be a 10 kt (Kiloton, or the explosive equivalent one ton of TNT) weapon although others have suggested that it may be a 20 kt. Just to offer a sense of the magnitude of the yield, the bomb that the US dropped in Hiroshima was 15 kt. But the yield suggests that this was not a hydrogen or a fusion bomb. The test might also indicate North Korea’s success in miniaturising their weapon to mount it on top of a long-range ballistic missile. North Korea claimed this after their last nuclear test in January. US military officials also suggest that Pyongyang may have managed to miniaturise the warhead though US civilian officials appear to be more skeptical. It must also be added that North Korea has carried out a series of ballistic missile tests as well in the recent months, the most recent one in the beginning of the week as world leaders gathered in Hanzhou for the G20 Summit. What motivates the North Korean regime is of course the key question [Test] [Inversion]
• Eight countries. 2,056 nuclear tests. 71 years.
  In the name of national security, eight countries have tested nuclear weapons all over the world since 1945, frequently near populated places. Related: North Korea conducts fifth nuclear test, claims it has made warheads with ‘higher strike power’. By Kevin Schaul Updated Sept. 9, 2016. Map Key 10,000 kilotons United States U.S.S.R. United Kingdom 2,000 China France India, Pakistan, North Korea, Unknown Showing tests performed through 2016 Restart animation United States Tests by U.S.S.R. Tests by the United States United States In 1954, the U.S. detonated “Castle Bravo” — the most powerful nuclear test in U.S. history. The United Kingdom and the United States have performed joint tests in Nevada. United Kingdom France France performed its first nuclear tests in occupied Algeria in the 1960s. China India Unknown Pakistan North Korea Eight countries have performed nuclear tests. The United States and U.S.S.R. have performed the most explosive tests in history. “Yield,” a measure of how much energy an explosion releases, is measured in kilotons — one equalling about the power of 1,000 tons of TNT. Both nuclear superpowers have performed nuclear tests with yields of at least 10,000 kilotons (at scale above: ). The United States is the only country that has used a nuclear weapon in war. Those destructive detonations — in Japan at Hiroshima on Aug. 6, 1945, and at Nagasaki three days later — were just 15 () and 21 () kilotons. [Test] [Statistics]
• N.Korea's Nuclear Test Cycle Growing Shorter
  North Korea's fifth nuclear test on Friday came just eight months after the last in a cycle that is getting ever shorter and suggests accelerating progress. The North conducted its first nuclear test in October 2006, the second in May 2009 and the third in February 2013, but since then the pace has picked up alarmingly. The initial stages of developing a nuclear weapon are fraught with trial and errors, and it takes time before the bugs are smoothed out. A shortened test cycle therefore shows a considerable level of technological development. It also raises fears that North Korea has more fissile material than previously thought. "It's possible that North Korea now has enough plutonium and uranium to conduct a wide variety of nuclear weapons tests over a short period, and the nuclear test site in Punggye-ri is big enough to accommodate so many tests," Prof. Kim Seung-pyong at Chosun University said. "We urgently need to check if there are more facilities in the North to produce nuclear weapons materials or if it's importing them from overseas." [Test]
• N.Korea's Nuke Test 'Only Cost $5 Million'
  North Korea spent an estimated US$5 million on its fifth nuclear test on Friday, the National Intelligence Service here said Sunday. The estimate was leaked by a lawmaker on the National Assembly's intelligence Committee, which was briefed by the NIS right after the test. The lawmaker added, "Given intensity of the test, that was a very small amount of money." Most of the money was apparently spent on acquiring the raw materials and on manufacturing the device. The NIS said there are two or three more tunnels at the Punggye-ri test site that can be used at any time to conduct more nuclear tests, according to another lawmaker. A government source here explained that North Korea spent around W1 trillion digging several tunnels in Punggye-ri, so it can now conduct more nuclear tests quite cheaply (US$1=W1,102). [Test] [Cost] [Nuclear-Conventional]
• [Analysis] 5th nuke test is message to outside world: Sanctions will not stop N. Korea
  Posted on : Sep.10,2016 14:58 KST Korean Central Television news anchor Lee Chun-hee announces North Korea’s fifth nuclear test at 1:30 pm (1 pm Pyongyang time) on Sept. 9. She reported, “The nuclear test was carried out to determine the power of a nuclear warhead.” (Yonhap News) Test timed to exploit disunity of Six-Party Talks countries, flouts UN Security Council sanctions North Korea described its fifth nuclear test as “Part of our practical response measures to the sanctions ruckus and the threat posed by the US and other hostile powers” in a statement issued by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea Nuclear Weapons Institute on Sept. 9. It also called the test “A display of the party and people’s ultrapowerful commitment.” A fifth nuclear test was not unexpected – indeed, it was simply a matter of time. On March 15, just after the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2270 in response to North Korea’s fourth nuclear test, leader Kim Jong-un declared that he would “conduct a nuclear warhead detonation test and test-launch various kinds of ballistic rockets capable of carrying warheads as soon as possible.” [Test]
• What to Make of North Korea’s Latest Nuclear Test?
  By Siegfried S. Hecker 12 September 2016 On September 9, 2016, seismic stations around the world picked up the unmistakable signals of another North Korean underground nuclear test in the vicinity of Punggye-ri. The technical details about the test will be sorted out over the next few weeks, but the political message is already loud and clear: North Korea will continue to expand its dangerous nuclear arsenal so long as Washington stays on its current path. Preliminary indications are that the test registered at 5.2 to 5.3 on the Richter scale, which translates to an explosion yield of approximately 15 to 20 kilotons, possibly twice the magnitude of the largest previous test. It appears to have been conducted in the same network of tunnels as the last three tests, just buried deeper into the mountain. This was the fifth known North Korean nuclear explosion; the second this year, and the third since Kim Jong Un took over the country’s leadership in December 2011. [Test] [Nuclear weapons]
• [Editorial] We strongly denounce N. Korea’s 5th nuke test
  Posted on : Sep.10,2016 15:02 KST North Korea carried out a surprise nuclear test on the morning of Sept. 9. It came just eight months after its fourth one earlier this year. It was also reportedly the most powerful to date. It was all the more provocative for coming just after the countries of Northeast Asia and the nations involved in Korean Peninsula affairs unanimously sent Pyongyang a message of warning at the ASEAN and G20 summits. The nuclear test is also a declaration from an already isolated North Korea that it plans to face off against the international community. We strongly denounce Pyongyang’s actions. Reckless behavior: Second nuclear test in eight months The latest North Korean nuclear test broke a pattern of tests taking place roughly once every three years. One of the aims appears to have been to speed up the perfection of its nuclear technology. Back in March, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said the North would “conduct a nuclear warhead detonation test and test-launch ballistic rockets capable of carrying warheads as soon as possible to boost the reliability of [its] nuclear attack capabilities.” What followed was a series of medium- and short-range ballistic missile and submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) test launches – and now another nuclear test. [Test]
• [Analysis] 5th nuke test is message to outside world: Sanctions will not stop N. Korea
  Posted on : Sep.10,2016 14:58 KST Test timed to exploit disunity of Six-Party Talks countries, flouts UN Security Council sanctions North Korea described its fifth nuclear test as “Part of our practical response measures to the sanctions ruckus and the threat posed by the US and other hostile powers” in a statement issued by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea Nuclear Weapons Institute on Sept. 9. It also called the test “A display of the party and people’s ultrapowerful commitment.” A fifth nuclear test was not unexpected – indeed, it was simply a matter of time. On March 15, just after the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2270 in response to North Korea’s fourth nuclear test, leader Kim Jong-un declared that he would “conduct a nuclear warhead detonation test and test-launch various kinds of ballistic rockets capable of carrying warheads as soon as possible.” He gave orders at the time for “scrupulous preparations in the corresponding sectors.” Test-launches of various ballistic missiles followed, including the Musudan on April 15 and 28, May 31 and June 22 and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) on April 23 and Aug. 24. After succeeding with both types, Kim gave orders to “further hasten nuclear weaponization efforts and continue showing at various levels all of [North Korea’s] theoretical actions as a military power,” according to the first two pages of the Aug. 25 edition of the Rodong Sinmun newspaper. The statement, which came just after the North’s successes with its major ballistic missile test-launches, amounted to an order for a fifth nuclear test [Test]
• [Analysis] Timing of latest N. Korean nuke test is cause for grave concern
  Posted on : Sep.10,2016 15:00 KST Following North Korea’s fifth nuclear test, workers, students and military personnel of North Korea People’s Army lay floral bouquets below the bronze statues of deceased leaders Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il at Mansudae, Pyongyang, on the 68th anniversary of the founding of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. (Chosun Central News Agency/Yonhap News) US may try to close sanctions loophole, go after North’s trade partners; UN Resolution will depend on China Affairs in Northeast Asia were already on an uncertain footing, but the nuclear test carried out by North Korea on Sept. 9 – its fifth such test – seems likely to plunge the region into even greater chaos and to obscure the way forward. The tough postures adopted by South Korea and the US on one side and by North Korea on the other are likely to become even tougher for the time being. North Korea has effectively demonstrated that it is a nuclear factory that can crank out large quantities of diverse weaponry despite intense pressure from the international community. The problem is the timing. There are just two months left before the presidential election on Nov. 8 in the US, which is both the hegemonic state in Northeast Asia and the author of what North Korea claims is a “policy of hostility” toward it. North Korea has jumped into the current power vacuum. It is unlikely that there will be any strategic compromise between the US and China regarding North Korea any time soon, let alone discussion at the UN Security Council about adopting an additional resolution against North Korea. Because of such considerations, China – which is North Korea’s only defender as well as the other “primary shareholder” in Northeast Asia – could conclude that it would be better to explore strategic countermeasures with whoever wins the upcoming presidential election than with the administration of Barack Obama. [Test]
• [Analysis] S. Korea worried about speed of N. Korea’s nuclear development
  Posted on : Sep.10,2016 14:57 KST Latest nuke test suggests increasing power, progress toward warheads that are smaller, lighter in weight The points that are worth noting about North Korea’s unexpected nuclear test on Sept. 9 are the increased power of the nuclear blast and North Korea’s claim that it was a “detonation test of a nuclear warhead.” First of all, the explosive power of this nuclear test (North Korea’s fifth) was twice that of the fourth nuclear test, on Jan. 6. The magnitude of the artificial earthquake as reported by the Korean Meteorological Association (KMA) was 5.04 on the Richter scale, and the force of its blast was equivalent to 10 kilotons (plus or minus 2 kilotons). One kiloton represents a force equivalent to 1,000 tons of TNT. These figures contrast with the power of North Korea’s fourth nuclear test, which was 4.8 on the Richter scale and had a force of 6 kilotons. North Korea’s nuclear capabilities have become more powerful with each nuclear test. The North’s first nuclear test in Oct. 2006 produced an artificial earthquake with a magnitude of 3.9, its second in May 2009 had a magnitude of 4.5, its third in 2013 had a magnitude of 4.9 and its fourth in Jan. 2016 had a magnitude of 4.8. North Korea’s nuclear weapons are gradually becoming more powerful. It has not been confirmed whether North Korea tested an atomic bomb or a hydrogen bomb. During the fourth nuclear test, the North claimed that it had tested a hydrogen bomb, but a large number of experts disputed this claim because of the low power of the blast. Instead, the possibility was raised that the test had been of a boosted fission weapon, which is at an earlier stage of development than a hydrogen bomb. On the other hand, some analysts point to the fact that it has taken nuclear power states between three and eight years to develop hydrogen bombs after their first nuclear test to argue that North Korea, which tested its first nuclear weapon in 2006, may have developed a hydrogen bomb over the past 10 years. It took the US seven years, the Soviet Union four years, the UK five years, France eight years and China three years to do so. [Test]
• N. Korea's next step may be ICBM test
  Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn, center, visits an artillery unit of the Marine Corps, stationed on Ganghwa Island off Incheon, Sunday, amid growing military tension following North Korea's fifth nuclear test, Friday. / Yonhap By Jun Ji-hye Following its fifth nuclear test, Friday, North Korea may move to test-fire an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) ? the KN-08 ? to show off its advanced technology that could threaten the United States, observers said Sunday. The latest nuclear test followed launches of short-, medium- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles in recent months. Observers noted that what now remains is the test-firing of the ICBM. The North's missile provocations and the nuclear test followed North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's instructions in March to conduct a nuclear test and more ballistic missile launches as soon as possible. The ICBM, with a range of more than 10,000 kilometers, is capable, in theory, of hitting targets on the U.S. mainland. [ICBM]
• Scud or Nodong? Experts puzzle over N. Korean missile launch
  Posted on : Sep.7,2016 17:02 KST On Sept. 6, the Rodong Sinmun, the official newspaper of the North’s ruling Workers’ Party, reported, “Comrade Kim Jong-un supervised an on-site training exercise involving a ballistic missile launch by the Hwasong artillery units of the North Korean People’s Army’s Strategic Force.” A related color photo ran on the front page of the newspaper. Upon close inspection of the photo, the ballistic missile fired on Sept. 5 (right) appears to have an improved warhead. On the left is a photo of a missile fired on July 19, 2016. (Yonhap News) Ballistic missile fired on Sept. 5 may be sign of technological advances, lead-up to nuclear warhead A Nodong or an extended-range Scud missile? A debate is raging over what type of ballistic missile North Korea launched on Sept. 5. The Ministry of National Defense announced at the time that the North had launched three Nodong missiles, which had flown just over 1,000 km over the East Sea. The following morning, North Korea published an image of the launch in its Rodong Sinmun newspaper. The conical warhead for the missile in that photograph was more reminiscent of a Scud, differing from the “baby-bottle-neck” shape of the Nodong. The transporter erector launcher (TEL) in the photograph also appeared to be the four-wheeled vehicle reportedly used for the Scud, rather than five-wheeled kind used with previous Nodong missile launches. Contrary to the announcement by the Ministry of National Defense, experts suggested the missile launched on Sept. 5 may have been the Scud-ER, an improved version of the Scud. Scud ballistic missiles possessed by North Korea include the Scud-B, which has a range of 300 km; the Scud-C, with a range of 500 km; and the Scud-ER (extended range), with a range of 700 to 1,000 km. “The North Korean missile launched yesterday was slightly different in form from the Nodong missile launched in July,” observed University of North Korean Studies professor Kim Dong-yup. [Missile] [Nodong] [Scud]
• N. Korean leader observes missile launches, calls for stronger nuke force
  North Korea's Rodong Sinmun released 9 photos on Tuesday that were revelent to the latests launches of three mid-range Rodong missiles toward Japan that took place on Monday. / Yonhap North Korean leader Kim Jong-un observed the latest launches of ballistic missiles and stressed the need to bolster the country's nuclear force, the state-run media said Tuesday. The North's leader was present for the test-firing of ballistic rockets by artillery units of the Korean People's Army (KPA), according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). On Monday, North Korea test-fired three mid-range Rodong missiles toward Japan in an apparent show of force as the Group of 20 major economies summit meeting was held in China. [Missile] [Deterrence]
• N.Korean Sub-launched Missile 'Identical with China's'
  The ballistic missile North Korea successfully recently fired from a submarine is identical with China's JL-1 submarine missile, a U.S. military expert said. That suggests China clandestinely handed the technology to the North to preserve a balance of power in the region. "The missile that the North Koreans launched looks like it's a two-stage missile just like the JL-1. It looks like it's a solid-fuel missile just like the JL-1," said Bruce Bechtol of Angelo State University in Texas, a former U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency officer. "Just looking at the JL-1 and the North Korean SLBM, they're looking exactly the same," he told a radio interviewer. He pointed out that over the past years China has supplied the North with a lot of military equipment, including transporter erector launchers. Buoyed by the success of the missile launch, the North is expected to accelerate development of a 3,000-ton submarine capable of carrying three to four missiles.
  In a briefing on Aug. 31, a defector group called North Korea Intellectuals Solidarity claimed the North's General Bureau of Reconnaissance is developing a nuclear-powered submarine based on a Russian nuclear-submarine blueprint that it has stolen by hacking. The North invited five Russian nuclear-submarine experts in 2013 and has since sped up its own submarine development, the group added. A government official here was skeptical. "The allegation about the hacking of a Russian computer network and theft of a submarine blueprint sounds like a cloak-and-dagger story, but nobody can completely rule it out," he said. [SLBM] [China NK] [MISCOM] [Russia NK]
• North fires 3 ballistic missiles
  People watch a TV news program reporting about North Korea's missile launch, at the Seoul Train Station in Seoul, Monday. North Korea fired three ballistic missiles off its east coast Monday, South Korea's military said, in a show of force timed to coincide with the G20 economic summit in China. / AP-Yonhap By Jun Ji-hye North Korea test-fired three ballistic missiles, believed to be medium-range Rodong missiles, into waters off its east coast, Monday, according to the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS). The missiles flew about 1,000 kilometers before landing in waters under Japan's Air Defense Identification Zone (JADIZ) in the East Sea. The launch took place soon after President Park Geun-hye and her Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping wrapped up their bilateral talks on the sidelines of the G20 summit in China's Hangzhou. [HangzhouG20] [Missile] [UFG]
• The launch of the North-Korean ballistic missile
  September 2, 2016 Written by Giancarlo Elia Valori Featured The launch of the North-Korean ballistic missile A missile was launched from a submarine by the North Korean Navy a few days ago, targeting Japan. The launch of the ballistic missile took place on Wednesday, August 24, just before 6.00 a.m. (local time). According to South Korean sources, the missile was launched from the Northern coast of the country and reached Japan’s Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ), after flying over 300 nautical miles. On the contrary, according to some US sources, the submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) is supposed to be a KN-11. The KN-11, Polaris-1 or Nodong-1 - but said missile has also other names - is a weapon system still being studied in Pyongyang, derived from the Soviet R-27 Zyb and from other recent Russian projects called R-29 and R-29RM. [SLBM] [Media] [Joint US military] [Inversion]
• N. Korea mobilizes 100,000 people to celebrate successful SLBM launch
  North Korean scientists involved in the development of technologies for submarine-launched ballistic missile visit Pyongyang on Friday at the invitation of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in this photo released on Saturday by the North's state media Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). / Yonhap North Korea mobilized some 100,000 people to mark the successful launch of its submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) in August, its main media outlet said Sunday. The daily Rodong Sinmun, an organ of the ruling Workers' Party of Korea, said a large scale welcoming ceremony was held in Pyongyang on Friday to praise the dedication of those that contributed to the successful launch of the SLBM. The missile launched in the early hours of Aug. 24 flew some 500 kilometers and landed within Japan's air defense identification zone in the East Sea. The latest test-fire of the missile was the third this year and the longest flight achieved by that type of North Korean missile to date. The newspaper said people lined the streets of the capital city to fete the scientist and engineers that made the missile launch a success. It said the contributors to the SLBM arrived in Pyongyang last Sunday and took in the various sites of the capital city, enjoyed rest and attended celebratory concerts. The paper said North Korean leader Kim Jong-un even took photos with people who played a role in the missile test. Related to the public mobilization, North Korean watchers in Seoul said Pyongyang reported that some 100,000 people also welcomed those who carried out the country's fourth nuclear test in January. "The regime uses these accomplishments to build up its public support and get the people to rally support for the leadership, which is facing tough challenges in the face of tightened international sanctions," a Pyongyang watcher said. (Yonhap) [SLBM] [Public opinion]
• On nuclear first strike, White is wrong
  31 August 2016 Author: Gareth Evans, ANU Hugh White’s views on the dangers of the United States moving to a ‘No First Use’ nuclear posture are not just inherently unpersuasive, for reasons crisply spelt out by Ramesh Thakur, for instance, in recent pieces in The Strategist and Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. They are also most decidedly not shared by a large group of former prime ministers, foreign ministers, key diplomats and other senior figures from around the region, including Japan and South Korea, who recently signed a statement on this issue as members of the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament. A boy looks at a photograph showing Hiroshima city after the 1945 atomic bombing, at the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Museum, Japan, 6 August 2007. (Photo: Reuters) Hugh White is a very fine strategic analyst and I agree with many of his views. But he has long been far too insouciant, in my judgement, about the enormous risks in the contemporary world associated with the possession and potential use, deliberately or inadvertently, of nuclear weapons by anyone — even to the extent of him being able to contemplate with equanimity a nuclear-armed Japan as part of his vision for a more evenly balanced new ‘concert of powers’ in East Asia. [NFU]
• North’s SLBM could be deployed earlier than expected
  Posted on : Sep.3,2016 13:42 KST Bukguksong, as North Korean submarine-launched ballistic missile US analyst, researchers suggest submarine-launched missile could be declared ready to further political aims North Korea could declare an early deployment of its submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) for political purposes even if the device’s development is not fully complete, US experts predicted. In a conference call organized by the North Korean affairs website 38 North, former US State Department North Korea analyst Joel Wit said, “In light of North Korea’s practices, it’s not impossible for it to declare the SLBM in position and operating [even if it is not complete].” “They could do it for the political shock,” he added. [SLBM] [Deterrence]
• SpaceX rocket explosion setbacks for commercial space
  Xinhua, September 2, 2016 SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket exploded Thursday on its launch pad at Cape Canaveral, Florida, dealing a blow to the California-based company's ambitious space exploration project, and even America's commercial space industry. The explosion, which occurred at 9:07 a.m. EDT (1307 GMT) as SpaceX prepared to perform a rocket static fire test ahead of a planned satellite launch this weekend, destroyed the Falcon 9 rocket and the payload it was carrying. But no injuries were reported because the launch pad has been cleared before the routine test. [SpaceX] [SLV]
• N. Korea leader treats nuclear scientist well despite reign of terror
  By Yi Whan-woo North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is exceptionally favoring scientists and engineers tasked with nuclear development despite his growing reign of terror. The young leader has been providing "all possible assistance" to nuclear researchers, including employees of a think tank under Pyongyang's Second Economic Commission and also the ruling Workers' Party's Munitions Industry Department. The commission oversees the development of military technology in general, while the department is in charge of nuclear programs. [Deterrent]
• North Korea launches SLBMs again
  Author: Konstantin Asmolov On August 24, 2016, North Korea conducted another launch of a submarine launched ballistic missile. The missile was launched at 5.30 local time and covered a distance of about 500 km and fell into the Sea of Japan (In Korea: the Eastern Sea), having flown 80 km into the Air Defense Identification Zone of Japan. Both Russian and South Korean experts believe that this is a serious step forward in comparison with the previous launches where missiles exploded in the air having covered a mere several kilometres. Moreover, the missile was launched at a steep angle and had it been an actual military launch, it might have covered about one thousand kilometres. [SLBM] [UNUS]
• US expert says THAAD can’t intercept North Korea’s SLBM
  Posted on : Aug.31,2016 16:08 KST Jeffrey Lewis, In blog post, Jeffrey Lewis of CNS argues that instead of arms-racing, a solution requires discouraging North Korean weapons development North Korea’s submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM, called the KN-11) cannot be stopped by the THAAD missile defense system, and seeking a diplomatic solution will ultimately be preferable to inciting an arms race, one American expert contends. “THAAD has a forward-looking radar with a 120-degree field of view. In the case of a single THAAD battery, North Korea’s submarines would not have to travel very far out to sea to attack the THAAD system,” wrote Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program (EANP) at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, on his blog on Aug. 28. North Korea could evade the THAAD radar’s field of view and attack from the rear, Lewis explained. [SLBM]
• KN-11 and THAAD
  by Jeffrey Lewis | August 28, 2016 | 1 Comment North Korea has now tested what appears to be a two-stage, solid-fueled ballistic missile capable of delivering a nuclear weapon to more than 1,000 km, probably much more. I would have thought that would garner some attention. North Korea’s new ballistic missile, which the US calls the KN-11, is a technically submarine-launched ballistic missile. But there is nothing to stop North Korea from deploying it as land-based ballistic missile as well. In fact, that’s what China did with the JL-1 (deployed as the DF-21/CSS-5, left) and what North Korea did with the SS-N-6 (deployed as the Hwasong-10/Musudan, right.) df_21musudan While press reports indicate that the KN-11 flew 500 km, take a look at the display being shown to Kim Jong Un. Like the most recent test of the Musudan, North Korea appears to have “lofted” the missile. In other words, North Korea fired it nearly straight up, reducing the range. If fired on a minimum trajectory, the KN-11 would have traveled much further than 500 km — over 1,000 km and probably much further. We’ll get to modeling the missile and its range, but at this point it doesn’t matter all that much. We know enough to know that this is, as Joe Biden might say, a big fucking deal. The KN-11 offers North Korea a flexible system to threaten South Korea. For one thing, the missile is solid-fueled. Liquid-fueled missiles take a significant period of time to fuel and launch. Soviet units practiced to launch a Scud in 90 minutes, although the Iraqis reduced that time and demonstrated other measures to reduce detection. Solid-fueled missiles “significantly shorter reaction and reload time than existing Scud missiles,” a point made in 2007 when North Korea began deploying the short-range KN-02. That’s appealing to the North Koreans, although I would argue that it also drives the basic escalation dynamics on the Korea peninsula that worry me. And once the missiles are launched, presumably in a salvo of several missiles, the KN-11 has additional advantages against missile-defense systems like THAAD. THAAD has a forward-looking radar with a 120-degree field of view. In the case of a single THAAD battery, North Korea’s submarines would not have to travel very far out to sea to attack the THAAD system from behind the field of view of its radar. I’ve made a map that shows the proposed location of the THAAD battery, its field of view, and the bases where its missiles submarines might be based. As you can see, a North Korean SLBM offers the opportunity to hit the THAAD site from behind. The rings show 500, 1000 and 2000 km from the THAAD battery. [SLBM] [THAAD]
• N. Korea expected to test nuclear warhead soon
  By Kang Seung-woo North Korea's repeated threats to take a series of "eventful action steps" may lead to a test of a miniaturized nuclear warhead, according to analysts, Wednesday. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un ordered a test of nuclear warheads and ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads on March 15, but unlike missile tests, Pyongyang has yet to conduct a nuclear warhead explosion test, raising speculation that the North is expected to detonate a nuclear warhead in the near future. "North Korea is expected to test a nuclear warhead soon among others, which will be the final piece to the nuclear weaponization puzzle, given that the repressive state has already displayed its nuclear materials through four nuclear tests and delivery systems behind numerous launches of ballistic missiles," said Chang Yong-seok, a senior researcher at the Institute for Peace and Unification Studies at Seoul National University. [Test] [Deterrence]

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AUGUST 2016

• S.Korea, U.S. to Step Up Anti-Submarine Operations
  South Korea and the U.S. have agreed to share information about submarines in North Korean waters after the North successfully launched a ballistic missile from a submarine last week. A meeting of Navy brass from the two sides "discussed ways to analyze and share information about the maritime environment in the sphere of operations in waters around the Korean Peninsula," a military source said on Sunday. The two sides will share information like underwater topography, water temperatures and sea currents. [ASW]
• Hawkish lawmakers call for nuclear submarines to counter N. Korea's missile threats
  A group of lawmakers from South Korea's ruling Saenuri Party said Monday the country should consider building a nuclear-powered submarine, amid escalating provocations by Pyongyang. The remark came as North Korea on Wednesday test-fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) in waters off its east coast. The South Korean military said the missile flew about 500 kilometers toward Japan, making the longest flight by such a missile launched by the communist country. "South Korea's military should move to deal effectively with North Korea's SLBM threat by deploying a submarine with nuclear propulsion that can better detect and attack North Korean vessels," the lawmakers said in a statement. [SLBM] [Submarines]
• ‘No first use’ nuclear pledge bad for US standing in Asia
  Author: Hugh White, ANU 24 August 2016 Barack Obama began his presidency with a dramatic gesture which captured the world’s imagination and won him the Nobel Peace Prize. Speaking in Prague in 2009, he declared that the United States would work towards abolishing nuclear weapons. Since then, for over seven years, nothing has happened. Now that might be about to change. US President Barack Obama tells photographers that he and his fellow world leaders are waiting for two more late-running delegates to join them for a family photo at the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, United States, 1 April 2016. (Photo: Reuters). The Washington Post reported that deputy national security adviser Ben Rhodes told the Arms Control Association on 6 June: ‘I can promise you today that President Obama is continuing to review a number of ways he can advance the Prague agenda over the course of the next seven months. Put simply, our work is not finished on these issues.’ There have been no official announcements, but well-orchestrated press reports say that in his last months as president, Obama wants to take the first concrete step towards nuclear abolition by reducing the United States’ own dependence on nuclear forces. He could do that by declaring officially that the United States will never use nuclear weapons unless an adversary has used them first. And that is a big deal. It may or may not bring us a step closer to abolishing nuclear weapons, but it would certainly be a big blow to the US’ strategic credibility in Asia [US global strategy] [NFU] [China confrontation]
• North Korea reportedly looking to build a submarine that can carry multiple SLBMs
  Posted on : Aug.27,2016 16:28 KST A photo made public on Aug. 25 by Korean Central Television of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un observing a test launch of a submarine launched ballistic missile the previous day. (Yonhap News) Report comes after apparently successful SLBM test this week, and order reportedly came from leader Kim Jong-un North Korea is reportedly pursuing plans to build a new kind of submarine that can carry multiple submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). Quoting a source connected with North Korea, Japan’s Tokyo Shimbun newspaper reported on Aug. 26 that there was evidence that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un had instructed the managers of munitions factories to build new submarines equipped with two or three SLBM launch tubes by Sep. 9, 2018, to coincide with the 70th anniversary of North Korea’s establishment. While the accuracy of this report could not be immediately confirmed, it is attracting notice since it was released after North Korea carried out what is believed to be a successful test launch of an SLBM in the early morning hours of Aug. 24. [SLBM]
• Upgraded Security at North Korea’s Sohae Satellite Launching Station
  By 38 North 25 August 2016 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. Summary Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates that North Korea has upgraded security measures for the Sohae Satellite Launching Station and surrounding area. While the upgrades are likely tied to the master construction plan, they may also indicate that the launch facility could soon be occupied by NADA and KPA scientists, engineers, technicians and support personnel. Upgraded security may also reflect a growing North Korean concern of intelligence collection by foreign governments using defectors from the area or outside agents to infiltrate and collect information. Upgraded Security Perimeters As part of the initial phases of construction at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station in 2000, a guard position and entrance were established at the point where the main access road entered the valley in which the launch facility was being built, thereby separating it from the nearby villages (the largest of which was Tongchang-ri). By December 2004, a second guard position and entrance were built about 2.6 kilometers to the northeast of the first. Both these guard and entrance positions had short fences on either side of the road. [SLV] [Sohae] [Satellite]
• U.S. Tracks N.Korean Submarines
  U.S. nuclear-powered attack submarines have been clandestinely tracking North Korean U-boats since the North began to show progress in developing submarine-launched ballistic missiles last year.
  The U.S. has apparently been keeping the information from South Korea. [SLBM] [Intelligence] [US dominance]
• N.Korean Regime Lavishes Generosity on Rocket Scientists
  North Korea has been squandering vast amounts of money on almost weekly missile tests in recent months despite barely maintaining itself at subsistence level amid international sanctions. That was only possible because the regime has been showering the scientists and technicians involved with its scarce resources. Leader Kim Jong-un has invited them to lavish banquets in Pyongyang in their honor and proclaimed them national heroes, going so far as to name a street in the capital for scientists and building them a high-rise apartment block there. The complex includes a sun deck and sauna. The rest of the hapless population have to double their efforts to pay for this generosity. Soldiers were mobilized to build the 53-story block in just 60 days, and other complexes are still going up. The state media constantly hail and praise scientists as "Kim Jong-un's warriors." "Scientists are part of the elite along with high-ranking Workers Party members and wealthy merchants, so a lot of children now want to be scientists when they grow up," a source said. Kim has been unusually forbearing with the scientists. After consecutive Hwasong-10 and submarine-launched ballistic missile tests failed, there was no sign that he was punishing anyone for the failures. Lt. Gen. Kim Rak-gyom, head of North Korea's Strategic Rocket Forces, disappeared from the radar for a while, raising speculation that he may have been sacked, but then he resurfaced at a Hwasong-10 test launch in June. [Rockets] [Media]
• N.Korea 'Developing Bigger Missile Submarine'
  U.S. and Japanese experts believe that North Korea is developing a new submarine even bigger than the 2,000-ton it now uses for the launch of ballistic missiles, the website 38 North said Thursday. Military boffin Joseph Bermudez, whose information is usually sound, told a conference hosted by 38 North that the North seems to have started building a new bigger submarine. He also said the submarine-launched ballistic missile the North fired from the East Sea on Wednesday was launched directly from a submarine, not from a barge as some reports speculated. "Assuming the current rate of development, while North Korea still faces significant technological challenges including building a new class of submarine to carry the missile, it is on track to develop the capability to strike targets in the region -- including Japan -- by 2020," the website said.
  Meanwhile, the Asahi Shimbun reported that the North could even deploy SLBMs warfare-ready this year. It said Seoul, Washington, and Tokyo believe the North will make haste to build a nuclear-powered submarine from which it can strike the U.S. mainland. [SLBM] [Submarine]
• North Korea’s submarine-launched ballistic missile a total success
  Posted on : Aug.26,2016 15:07 KST North Korean leader Kim Jong-un celebrates the successful launch of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) off North Korea’s coast into the East Sea off of Sinpo, North Hamgyong Province, Aug. 24. (Yonhap News) Test launch confirms a number of technical advances, including high angle launch and cold launch North Korea claimed that it had “completely achieved its operational goals on its key technological indicators” in its test launch of the Bukgeukseong (meaning “north star”, a KN-11 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM). The material that North Korea made public on Aug. 25 shows that the missile was launched successfully without any major technical hitches, as North Korea claimed. In a 1-minute, 47-second video of the missile launch shown on Korean Central Television, the missile emerges from the surface of the water with a roar trailed by a plume of flame once the countdown is complete. [SLBM]
• Expert: North Korea’s submarine-launched ballistic missile won’t be ready until 2020
  Posted on : Aug.26,2016 15:04 KST New satellite images also show what appear to be a new submarine base near Sinpo on North Korea’s east coast A US expert predicted North Korea’s submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) will not be ready for combat deployment until 2020. The prediction comes amid speculation that the SLBM, which was test-launched by the North on Aug. 24, could be deployed as early as the end of this year. Joseph Bermudez, a researcher and North Korean military expert with the intelligence analysis firm AllSource Analysis, explained his prediction in a conference call organized on Aug. 24 by the North Korea affairs website 38 North. “For a North Korean submarine to have survival capabilities [after a missile attack], they would need to develop and deploy a bigger SLBM,” he explained. [SLBM]
• On the Renewal of North Korea’s Plutonium Program
  Konstantin Asmolov On August 17, the Japanese Kyodo News Agency reported that the graphite reactor in Yongbyon had resumed processing nuclear fuel for the production of weapons-grade plutonium, referring to the Nuclear Energy Research Institute of North Korea. According to the Institute’s report, North Korea is not a member of the Non-proliferation Treaty, and the USA constantly threatens it with nuclear weapons. The report underlines that North Korea has managed to miniaturize and decrease the weight of nuclear warheads. The exact amount of plutonium and enriched uranium obtained is not disclosed. It was also stated that it is planned to construct a light-water reactor with a capacity of 100 thousand kW in order to tackle the lack of electric power. [Plutonium]
• North Korea’s SLBM Program Progresses, But Still Long Road Ahead
  By John Schilling 26 August 2016 North Korea's Bukkeukseong-1 test demonstrates longest range thus far. (Photo: Rodong Sinmun)The success of North Korea’s latest submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) test suggests the program may be progressing faster than originally expected. However, this does not mean it will be ready next week, next month, or even next year. Rather, the pace and method of the North’s SLBM testing would suggest possible deployment in an initial operational capability by the second half of 2018 at the earliest. Given Russia’s history of SLBM development—a model Pyongyang seems to be following—even after two years and 12 tests of varying degrees of “success” after its first successful launch from a submarine, there were still glitches to be found and fixed. The North Koreans may skip some of these tests, but rushing development almost certainly sacrifices reliability, and fielding inadequately tested or unreliable missiles could result in sunken submarines—a high price to pay when the North has only a single ballistic missile submarine of limited capability. [SLBM]
• [News analysis] North Korea’s SLBM becoming a threat much faster than expected
  Posted on : Aug.25,2016 17:30 KST Distance of Aug. 24 launch into East Sea far outstripped previous launches and surpassed predictions The submarine-launched ballistic missile, in the early morning darkness in the East Sea off of Sinpo, Aug. 24. On the left, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un hugs one of the research scientists who developed the SLBM. (Yonhap News) North Korea’s first successful test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) on Aug. 24 increases the likelihood that North Korea’s SLBMs will become a threat sooner than expected. “At 5:30 am on Aug. 24, North Korea test fired one SLBM toward the East Sea from the waters near the city of Sinpo in South Hamgyong Province. The missile flew for about 500 km, which suggests that progress has been made over the past few test launches. South Korea and the US are currently carrying out a detailed analysis,” South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said on Aug. 24. The North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) also confirmed that this was the launch of an SLBM, thought to be a Bukgeukseong (KN-11). An official with the US State Department said that the missile flew for 480 km (300 miles) and fell in Japan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (JADIZ). The submarine-launched ballistic missile, which North Korea has been developing for the past one year and eight months, rising out of the water on Aug. 24, in a photo that appeared on pages 1-2 of the Aug. 25 edition of the Rodong Sinmun newspaper. In the smaller picture, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and air force commander Ri Byong-chol laugh and smoke while watching the launch. (Yonhap News) This was the third time that Pyongyang launched an SLBM this year, and it came 46 days after the previous launch on July 9. [SLBM]
• N. Korea may deploy SLBM within a year
  By Yi Whan-woo North Korea's test-firing of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), Wednesday, is raising concerns that it could deploy the weapons earlier than South Korea expected. With the launch seen as a success, it also revealed that the military here underestimated Pyongyang's SLBM technology and failed to accurately track its rapid progress. The missile flew 500 kilometers, well beyond the minimum 300 kilometers for a launch to be considered successful, before landing in waters under Japan's Air Defense Identification Zone. Defense officials here are reportedly looking at the possibility that North Korea will be able to operationally deploy the SLBMs by the end of this year. Some military sources said the officials were wrong about their previous analysis that it would take four to five years for Pyongyang to fully develop SLBMs when the Kim Jong-un regime test-fired one on May 8, 2015. It failed in its initial flight stage. While criticism was poured on the military and intelligence authorities here, President Park Geun-hye warned, Wednesday, that Pyongyang's military threats were becoming "tangible." [SLBM]
• N. Korea's SLBM test success may render THAAD useless
  By Jun Ji-hye As North Korea is advancing its submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) technology, analysts here are raising questions about the effectiveness of a U.S. anti-missile system scheduled to be deployed in Seongju, North Gyeongsang Province, next year. Some say that the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery would not be able to defend the nation if the North's submarines launch ballistic missiles from waters off the southern coast of the Korean Peninsula, given that THAAD is designed to shoot down North Korean missiles fired from the north. Pyongyang test-fired an SLBM, Wednesday, that flew about 500 kilometers and splashed down in waters under Japan's Air Defense Identification Zone (JADIZ) in the East Sea, showed a significant improvement from past tests. Defense officials here are reportedly looking at the possibility that the North will be able to effectively deploy the SLBMs by the end of this year. Kim Dong-yup, a professor at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies, said THAAD's AN/TPY-2 radar would be aimed in a northward direction and will only offer a 120-degree azimuth of coverage. [SLBM] [THAAD]
• NK to develop larger submarines
  By Jun Ji-hye North Korea's next move after conducting a successful submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) test, Wednesday, will be to develop submarines that can fire multiple missiles, experts said Thursday. The North demonstrated a significant improvement in developing operational SLBMs by successfully test-firing one Wednesday, which flew about 500 kilometers before landing in waters within Japan's air defense identification zone. This indicates that the repressive state may have acquired the cold launch technology necessary to launch a missile from the water and to put it on a trajectory for a designated target. Experts say the North now apparently needs a new bigger class of submarine than the existing Sinpo class with a displacement of around 2,000 tons to enhance its SLBM capability, as the SLBMs would be useless if the submarine functions poorly. [SLBM] [Submarine]
• N. Korea airs SLBM footage via state TV
  North Korea's central television broadcasting station on Thursday aired the footage of the latest launch of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM). North Korea on Wednesday test-fired a SLBM in waters off its east coast near the port city of Sinpo. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has called the launch "the greatest success." The South Korean military said the missile flew about 500 kilometers toward Japan, making the longest flight by such a missile launched by the North. (Yonhap) [SLBM]
• Monitoring the Threat: a Timeline of North Korean Missile Tests 2013-2016
  By 38 North 24 August 2016 Introduction by John Schilling In a simpler time, it was sufficient to google “North Korean 2006 Missile Test” and find that, yes, the North Koreans conducted a single missile test in 2006 along with all the accompanying data known. But things aren’t that simple anymore. Now if you search for information on “the North Korean 2014 missile test,” 15 separate events pop up. To address this new complexity, 38 North has developed a timeline of North Korea’s missile tests from 2013 to the present to help understand and track trends in the North’s missile development. [Missiles] [Deterrence]
• Preparations for North Korean Missile Test Caught on Satellite Imagery
  By 38 North 24 August 2016 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr. At approximately 5:30 AM local time on August 24, 2016, North Korea conducted what appears to be a successful test of a Bukkeukseong-1 (Polaris-1, KN-11) submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM). The missile was launched from the country’s sole GORAE-class experimental ballistic missile submarine that was submerged off the port city of Sinpo and reportedly flew approximately 500 km before impacting the East Sea (Sea of Japan)—within Japan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). This was the third test of the KN-11 this year alone and the most successful test to date.[1] A commercial satellite image taken at 11:16 AM local time on August 22 of the Sinpo South Shipyard, home port of the GORAE-class submarine, shows what are likely the final preparations for the August 24 test. In the image, a heavy-lift construction crane is positioned directly over the missile launch tube located in the submarine’s conning tower. No missile, or missile shipping container, is visible on the dock or in the immediate area, suggesting that the missile had already been loaded onto the submarine. Significantly, this test indicates that: ?North Korea continues to be strongly committed to the long-term development of an operational SLBM and is learning from its previous successes and failures; ?The North is demonstrating a nascent capability to strike at South Korea with an SLBM, thereby complicating ballistic missile defense planning and operations; and ?Assuming the current rate of development, while North Korea still faces significant technological challenges including building a new class of submarine to carry the missile, it is on track to develop the capability to strike targets in the region—including Japan—by 2020. Other activity noted in the August 22 image includes: [SLBM]
• N.Korea Launches Missile from Submarine
  A missile is fired from a submarine in this picture from North Koreas official Rodong Sinmun daily in April. A missile is fired from a submarine in this picture from North Korea's official Rodong Sinmun daily in April. North Korean on Wednesday succeeded in launching a ballistic missile from a submarine. The successful launch follows four failed tests. The missile flew about 500 km across the East Sea and landed in Japan's air identification zone, the longest flight yet by a North Korean submarine-launched ballistic missile. South Korean military officials said the test indicates that the missile could fly 2,500 km at an ordinary trajectory. The North has claimed success in four major weapons tests, from an alleged hydrogen bomb in January to the Kwangmyongsong-4 space rocket in February, the mid-range Hwasong-10 missile in June and the SLBM. The regime is clearly in a hurry. In the West, missile tests are usually conducted with a four- to six-month gap, but North Korea has conducted its missile tests just weeks apart and sometimes two in a day. Leader Kim Jong-un is throwing the impoverished country's entire dwindling capital into developing weapons of mass destruction. It has conducted 33 ballistic missile launches in the four years that he has been in power, twice the number his father Kim Jong-il conducted during his 18 years in power. They are estimated to have cost W120 billion, which experts say would have been enough to feed the North's entire population for two months (US$1=W1,121). [SLBM]
• North Korea may have reprocessed enough spent nuclear fuel for 2-4 nukes
  Posted on : Aug.24,2016 17:48 KST IAEA recently observed that chemical tanks had been brought into the reprocessing facilities at the Yongbyon nuclear complex Above, the Yongbyon Nuclear Complex and below, the Fuel Fabrication Complex If North Korea reprocessed spent nuclear fuel from its 5MW nuclear reactor at Yongbyon in the first half of this year, it probably extracted enough weapon-grade plutonium to make between two and four nuclear weapons, an American research institute estimates. The estimate was made on Aug. 22 by David Albright, director of the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), an American public policy institute, as part of remarks about a recent report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and about North Korea’s claims that it had reprocessed spent nuclear fuel. “The IAEA writes that North Korea could have unloaded the fuel from the 5 megawatt-electric (MWe) reactor [at Yongbyon] late last year and processed it to separate plutonium in the Radiochemical Laboratory during the first half of this year,” Albright wrote. “In this case, we have estimated that North Korea could have produced and separated an additional 5.5-8 kilograms of weapon-grade plutonium.” [Plutonium]
• N. Korea 'successfully' fires SLBM
  Missile flies 500km, breaches Japan's air defense zone By Jun Ji-hye North Korea "successfully" test-fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) in waters off its east coast, Wednesday. The missile flew about 500 kilometers before landing in waters under Japan's Air Defense Identification Zone (JADIZ) in the East Sea — a significant improvement compared with past launches, according to the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS). The missile flew about 80 kilometers into the JADIZ. The latest in a series of launches is an apparent protest against South Korea and the United States' ongoing joint exercise as well as the two countries' planned deployment of a U.S. anti-missile system here, officials said. The flight distance of the launch indicates that all of South Korea could be put within range of North Korean SLBMs. [SLBM]
• N. Korea leader calls SLBM launch success, boasts of nuke attack capacity
  North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has called the North's launch of a ballistic missile from a submarine "the greatest success," saying his country has full capacity to carry out nuclear attacks, Pyongyang's state media said Thursday. The North's leader observed the launch of the submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) Wednesday, saying it was "the greatest success and victory," according to the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). Kim said the results of the test-fire showed North Korea "joined the front rank of the military powers fully equipped with nuclear attack capability," the KCNA reported. The South Korean military said the missile flew about 500 kilometers toward Japan, making the longest flight by such a missile for the North. A military source said the missile, launched at a high angle, could have flown more than 1,000 km if it was fired off at a regular angle, and is seen as an indication of the advances made in the North's missile program. [SLBM]
• N. Korea developing larger-class submarine for missile launch: expert
  North Korea is building a new bigger class of submarine than the existing Sinpo-class, and the new project seems to have been kicked off several years ago, Joseph Bermudez, co-founder and chief analytic officer of AllSource Analysis, said at a briefing organized by 38 North. His assessment is in line with outlooks from other North Korean observers who speculated that Pyongyang is seeking a bigger sub that can enhance its SLBM capability. The Sinpos are relatively small subs with a displacement of around 2,000 tons. They are known to have vertical ballistic missile launch tubes built into the sail of the submarine. On Wednesday, North Korea launched an SLBM from the East Sea, the country's third SLBM test-fire this year. [Submarine] [SLBM]
• Does N. Korea have nuclear suicide-bomber corps?
  North Korea created a "nuclear backpack" military unit in March, according to Radio Free Asia. / Yonhap By Lee Jin-a, Park Si-soo North Korea's military is said to have established a "nuclear backpack" corps whose members are trained to infiltrate South Korea to detonate a nuclear bomb. Radio Free Asia (RFA) reported the corps' establishment on Wednesday, citing unidentified sources in North Hamgyong Province. Details of the unit are unknown and the credibility of sources is questionable. But what if the corps does exist? That means the North's nuclear weapons technology has advanced to where it can reduce the size of a nuclear bomb to that of a backpack. A miniaturized nuclear weapon could be carried by ground soldiers or loaded onto a long-range missile, which would pose a grave security threat to South Korea and its allies, including the United States. The South Korean government does not believe the North's nuclear technology has advanced to that level yet. [Canard] [Media] [Hoax]
• N.Korea 'Restarts Plutonium Production'
  The North Korean regime has resumed the production of plutonium at its Yongbyon nuclear facility, it claimed Wednesday. The regime restarted a 5MW reactor there in 2013 after it was switched off under an abortive international deal, but it had not so far said anything about plutonium for nuclear weapons. "We have reprocessed spent nuclear fuel rods removed from a graphite-moderated reactor," North Korea's Atomic Energy Institute told Kyodo News in a written interview. The institute also claimed it has been producing highly enriched uranium, another material necessary for nuclear weapons, "as scheduled." The institute claimed it succeeded in making "lighter, smaller and diversifying" nuclear warheads, and boasted that the North has hydrogen bombs, a claim dismissed by experts. "Under conditions that the United States constantly threatens us with nuclear weapons, we will not discontinue nuclear tests," the institute said. Kyodo said that hints at another nuclear test, the North's fifth. Based on satellite images, James Clapper, the director of the U.S. National Intelligence, warned in February that the North could reproduce plutonium from the reactor's spent fuel within weeks or months. A Foreign Ministry official here said, "If the claim is true, the regime has explicitly violated a UN Security Council resolution that bans the North from any nuclear activities. We'll closely cooperate with countries concerned and international organizations to discuss a response." [Yongbyon]
• Human Survival Project Tribunal
  International Peoples Tribunal on the Nuclear Powers and the Destruction of Human Civilisation:
  The Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies (Human Survival Project), and the Sydney Centre for International Law (SCIL) at Sydney University, with co-sponsorship by People for Nuclear Disarmament (PND) NSW and Aotearoa Lawyers For Peace, have successfully staged the Tribunal's hearings in the Woolley Building Common Room, University of Sydney, from Thursday-Friday July 2016. Full Documentation for the Tribunal so far (program, prosecution indictment and memorial, amicus and defence briefs, rebuttals, final statements, a media release and full videos) can be found below. [Nuclear weapons]
• Modernized Russian bombers will be able to fly in the stratosphere
  By Nikolai Litovkin, Russia Beyond the Headlines | Aug. 16, 2016 at 10:20 AM At the end of 2016, the Russian Defense Ministry will receive the first delivery of the renewed NK-32 engines for the Tu-160M2 strategic missile-carrying bombers. According to the developers, the new engine will help the plane fly up to the stratosphere at an altitude of 60,000 feet. "The new NK-32 version can work not only as a reactive plane engine but also as a rocket engine. Thanks to this, the Tu-160M2 will be able to cruise at a height where no enemy anti-aircraft system can strike it," a source in the Russian defense industry said. The modernized plane's first flight will take place in 2018. According to Russian air force chief Viktor Bondarev, the Defense Ministry plans to buy about 50 Tu-160M2 planes. Serial construction of the aircraft will begin in 2021. [Military balance] [Russia confrontation]
• Air Force Ballistic Missile Upgrade Said to Be Stalled Over Cost
  Anthony Capaccio August 16, 2016 — 9:00 PM NZST The U.S. Air Force’s program to develop and field a new intercontinental ballistic missile to replace aging Minuteman III weapons is stalled over Pentagon concerns the service underestimated the cost by billions of dollars, according to a defense official familiar with the program. The service is grappling with a substantial gap between the cost estimate its officials prepared for an Aug. 3 meeting of the Pentagon’s Defense Acquisition Board and one crafted by the department’s office of independent cost assessment, said the official, who asked not to be identified because of the internal debate. The Air Force last year estimated that the new ICBM program would cost $62.3 billion for research, development and production of as many as 400 missiles as well as command and control systems and infrastructure. Lockheed Martin Corp., Boeing Co. and Northrop Grumman Corp. are all competing to build the new ICBMs. The uncertainty over costs stems from the fact that the U.S. has not built new ICBMs, which are designed to carry nuclear warheads, for decades. The funding dilemma will likely add to debate over whether coming administrations can afford a “bow wave” of surging nuclear and non-nuclear weapons spending after 2021. Nuclear spending alone could surpass $1 trillion over 30 years if operations, support and construction are included. [ICBM]
• It’s Decision Time for the Air Force’s New Nuclear Cruise Missile
  The question is—does the military need it? by JAMES DREW This year, lawmakers must decide whether to approve the Obama administration’s plan to spend billions of dollars on new nuclear weapons, including a stealthy cruise missile. The Pentagon calls it the Long-Range Standoff Weapon, or LRSO for short, and it would replace the outdated Air-Launched Cruise Missile your grandfather’s warbird—the 50-year-old B-52 Stratofortress—still carries on bomber runs over the Pacific and Europe to deter a preemptive attack on America and her allies. The Air Force’s budget request for fiscal year 2016 calls for around $1.8 billion in spending on the missile during the next five years. There will be two versions—one to carry an updated W80 thermonuclear warhead, and another packed with conventional explosives for non-nuclear attacks. [LSRO] [Nuclear weapons]
• Hypersonic Threats: The Need for a Realistic Assessment
  Vladimir Dvorkin August 9, 2016 Against a backdrop of Russian, Chinese, and U.S. strides in science and technology, trilateral consultations could help address potential threats from new weapons. Russia, the United States, China, and India are the prime movers behind the current development and testing of hypersonic cruise missiles. These missiles are intended for launching high-precision non-nuclear strikes against a range of targets and carrying them out in significantly less time than strikes conducted with existing cruise missiles. This state of affairs dictates, at a minimum, that the governments of these states will devote considerable effort to assessing the emerging threat posed by hypersonic weapons in all spheres of warfare and creating semi-strategic and technical protections from these systems. The development of intercontinental-range hypersonic weapons is especially alarming. For instance, many Russian officials and experts believe that hypersonic weapons deployed by the United States will drastically increase the effectiveness of the global strike concept and give Washington a capability to deliver a disarming non-nuclear strike against Russia’s Strategic Nuclear Forces. [Military balance] [Russia confrontation]
• North Korea’s Man on the Moon?
  By John Schilling 15 August 2016 “Even though the U.S. and its allies try to block our space development, our aerospace scientists will conquer space and definitely plant the flag of the DPRK on the moon!” Stairway to the Moon What would have been alarming coming from a Cold War superpower seems almost comical coming from Pyongyang. Yet that was the recent claim from Hyon Kwang Il, director of the scientific research department of North Korea’s National Aerospace Development Administration. But should we really be laughing? Shortly after North Korea’s announcement, the US government approved a plan by a team of Silicon Valley entrepreneurs to launch a private lunar probe using a rocket being developed in New Zealand. The days when deep space missions were the exclusive domain of superpower governments are over, and the new space race may have a more interesting cast of competitors. [Space]
• S.Korea to Deploy German Taurus Missiles
  Taurus air-to-surface missiles are being launched from a German bomber jet. /Courtesy of Taurus Systems GmbH Taurus air-to-surface missiles are being launched from a German bomber jet. /Courtesy of Taurus Systems GmbH Seoul will buy scores of Taurus long-range air-to-surface missiles from Germany to deploy them warfare-ready late this year. Carried by fighter jets, the bunker buster missiles have a range of 500 km and are capable of striking any target in North Korea from near the demilitarized zones. The purchase can begin because the U.S. government recently approved the sale of military GPS receivers, which will be installed on the missiles, a military source said on Tuesday. Some 100 more will be purchased next year. Some 5.1 m long and with a payload weight of 480 kg, the missiles can evade radar flying at a low altitude of 40 m. Their penetration capacity is better than that of U.S. air-to-surface missiles. With a triple navigation system, including inertial and infrared, the Taurus can hit targets even if the GPS signal is being jammed. The Taurus will be used as a key part of a so-called "kill chain" in an emergency whereby the military can detect signs of an impending enemy missile launch and preemptively destroy it, the source added. [Missiles] [Arms sales] [Military balance]
• Continued Unidentified Activity at Site of North Korea’s Last Nuclear Test
  By 38 North 11 August 2016 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu and Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr. Recent commercial satellite imagery from August 4, 2016 shows continued activity at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site, specifically at the North Portal, site of North Korea’s fourth nuclear test conducted in January 2016. While supplies and/or equipment stacked on the ground south and southeast of the North Portal, as well as a small vehicle at the support building, visible in July are no longer present, a 6-meter by 9-meter net canopy has been erected immediately south of the support building. The canopy is not camouflaged, but does prevent accurate observation of the area it covers.
• Little Activity at North Korea’s Sinpo South Shipyard; Recent Media Reports of New Submarine Pens Nearby Incorrect
  By 38 North 08 August 2016 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr. Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates no significant submarine related activity at the Sinpo South Shipyard, home port of North Korea’s sole GORAE-class experimental ballistic missile submarine. Specifically: [SLBM]
• Hiroshima: the Crime That Keeps on Paying, But Beware the Reckoning
  by Diana Johnstone On his visit to Hiroshima last May, Obama did not, as some had vainly hoped he might, apologize for the August 6, 1945 atomic bombing of the city. Instead he gave a high-sounding speech against war. He did this as he was waging ongoing drone war against defenseless enemies in faraway countries and approving plans to spend a trillion dollars upgrading the US nuclear arsenal. An apology would have been as useless as his speech. Empty words don’t change anything. But here was one thing that Obama could have said that would have had a real impact: he could have told the truth. He could have said: “The atom bombs were not dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki ‘to save lives by ending the war’. That was an official lie. The bombs were dropped to see how they worked and to show the world that the United States possessed unlimited destructive power.” [Nuclear weapons] [Hiroshima]
• Geolocating the June 22 Hwasong-10 Test: The Kalma Firing Position
  By 38 North 05 August 2016 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. and Sun Young Ahn. Summary While the exact location of the June 22 Hwasong-10 (Musudan) ballistic missile test was not reported by North Korean state media, comparison of the ground photos published and recent commercial satellite imagery indicate that the test took place on the east side of the Kalma International Airport. This airport is in the final stages of being converted from the Wonsan Airbase to modern civilian facility, but also includes a recently constructed firing position for heavy missile transporter-erector-launchers (TELs). It is likely that North Korea will continue to use both this location and its companion facility on the Hodo Peninsula for live-fire artillery, rocket and missile tests, with the Kalma location being used primarily for highly publicized events and the Hodo facility for more routine testing and training. [Musudan]
• N.Korea Fires Missile into Japanese-Controlled Waters
  North Korea fired two mid-range ballistic missiles on Wednesday morning, one of which flew some 1,000 km and fell into Japan's exclusive economic zone. The other exploded above the ground immediately after launch. The Joint Chiefs of Staff here on Wednesday said the North fired two presumed Rodong missiles from South Hwanghae Province into the East Sea around 7:50 a.m. Japanese Defense Minister Gen Nakatani said one missile came down in Japan's EEZ 250 km west of the Oga Peninsula in Akita Prefecture. At this rate, a Rodong missile fired from North Korea's east coast could strike major Japanese cities like Tokyo. If the range is the full touted 1,300 km, it could hit any target on the Japanese islands including Yokosuka naval base, where a U.S. aircraft carrier fleet is located.
• Russia worried less powerful US nuke will be ‘more tempting’ to use
  Published time: 3 Aug, 2016 13:05 Russia says the global security situation could change after the US National Nuclear Security Administration decided to upgrade its B61 nuclear weapon. Moscow also fears that as the new bomb will be less powerful, there could be greater temptation to use it. The decision by the US National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) authorized the program to enter a post-engineering phase, which comes after four years of work. This now means the first upgraded bombs are set to roll out by 2020. Read more New deterrence: US plans to upgrade its nuclear bomb However, this has worried both the Russian Foreign Ministry and arms experts, who believe the move could change the global security situation. “We were discussing this as soon as the plans appeared about creating something that according to the information that has been made publically available has greater precision, but is not as powerful as other existing weapons within the US arsenal,” said the deputy head of the foreign ministry Sergey Ryabkov, as cited by RIA Novosti. “This means that the armaments threshold could in theory have been lowered, which of course will destabilize the situation to a certain extent,” Ryabkov added. Mikhail Ulyanov, the head of the ministry’s department on arms control was equally worried about the new development and believes that despite the weapons perhaps being less powerful, this could ultimately lead to a greater “temptation to use them.” [Nuclear weapons]

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JULY 2016

• Kim Jong-un Squanders Fortune on Missile Launches
  North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has squandered the equivalent of W110 billion in South Korean money on test-firing 31 ballistic missiles over the five years since he took power (US$1=W1,136). They were 16 Scud missiles with a range of 300-1,000 km, six Rodong with a range of 1,300 km, six Hwasong-10 with a range of 3,500 km, and three submarine-launched missiles, the Defense Ministry here said Wednesday. That is nearly double the 16 ballistic missiles his father Kim Jong-il fired in his entire 18 years at the helm. Scud and Rodong missiles cost W1-2 billion each if measured by their export prices for Middle Eastern countries. The regime has fired a total of 22 such missiles, meaning their total cost is W22-44 billion. Each Hwasong-10, formerly known as Musudan, is estimated at W3-6 billion, three times as much as the Scud missile, which means the regime has wasted W18-36 billion firing six. The SLBMs the regime is developing cost an estimated W5-10 billion each. With that money the regime could have purchased enough grain to feed the entire population for a month or two. The regime has about 1,000 mid- and short-range ballistic missiles, military authorities here speculate. [Deterrence] [Missiles] [Military expenditure]
• Kim Jong-un, Jeremy Corbyn, and the Trident Debate
  By Adam Cathcart | July 26, 2016 .... |Image: Chosun Central TV >One of three North Korean missiles launched from the symbolic Unification Highway between Pyongyang, Kaesong and the DMZ just as parliamentarians in London were voting to renew the UK’s Trident nuclear deterrent. | Image: Chosun Central TV Since at least the 1980s, the DPRK has been a poor and in many respects ineffectual state both at home and abroad. Pyongyang is well aware of these limitations; without nuclear weapons it would attract little interest beyond the boundaries of Northeast Asia. A North Korean interlocutor once inquired mischievously of his visiting foreign charges, “What is the language of diplomacy? Is it English? French? Russian? Spanish?” before answering his own question, “No, it’s power.” Nuclear weapons are North Korea’s path to, if not power, then at least a kind of influence. The Kim regime’s reach in this regard has of late extended to London. Last week, politicians on both sides of the aisle took up the “North Korean threat” and how best to deal with it in a heated parliamentary debate over the renewal of the UK’s own long-standing nuclear deterrent, which is currently embodied in four Royal Navy Vanguard-class nuclear submarines (designed in Britain) carrying Trident II submarine-launched ballistic missiles (bought from the USA) topped with British nuclear warheads designed by AWE. In 2007, a vote on early aspects of the renewal passed by a resounding 409 to 61. This time the margin was 472-117, but the 2016 debate was made more combative by the fact that the leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, is a lifetime supporter of the anti-nuclear movement and has, to howls of strategic anguish from the military, already admitted that he would not push the nuclear button if he were prime minister. His unconvincing answer to the DPRK question remains a return to the Six-Party Talks. In this essay, Adam Cathcart looks at North Korea’s role in the debate over Trident renewal.- Christopher Green, Co-editor Kim Jong-un, Jeremy Corbyn, and the Trident Debate by Adam Cathcart While the House of Commons was debating the renewal of Trident, the UK’s nuclear deterrent, a team of technicians was moving onto a highway south of North Korea’s capital to put on their own show of force. [Deterrence] [Trident] [False analogy] [Context]
• N.Korea Building New Submarine Base
  North Korea is building a new naval base at Sinpo, South Hamgyong Province for new 3,000-ton submarines that carry submarine-launched ballistic missiles, Jane's Defence Weekly reported Sunday. Based on analysis of satellite imagery, the defense weekly said the North is building the facility just south of the Sinpo shipyard on the east coast. It has two docks, each 137 m long and 13 m wide, capable of sheltering new 3,000-ton submarines that the North is developing so that they can carry more than three SLBMs each. The North is currently developing missiles for 2,000-ton Sinpo-class submarines, which can carry only one SLBM. The new naval base has steel structures over the docks and some concrete slabs to form the roofs of the docks to hide the subs, the weekly added. A South Korean military spokesman said the North's new submarines have "not been identified" yet. [SLBM]
• Britain's nuclear-weapons future: no done deal
  Paul Rogers 21 July 2016
  A new British nuclear arsenal will face great obstacles. Not least: is it legal? The United Kingdom parliament has taken a historic decision over the future of the country's nuclear arsenal. On 18 July 2016, it voted by a substantial majority to go ahead with building four Successor-class ballistic-missile submarines to replace the current Vanguard fleet. The cost is estimated at £31 billion for the submarines with a contingency of another £10bn. This combined figure of £41bn, however, is a small part of the overall cost of constructing and maintaining the boats, the warheads, and the many other support requirements. The warheads are developed and assembled at the Aldermaston/Burghfield complex which has annual running costs of at least £1bn a year. The missile submarines need protection by nuclear-powered (but not nuclear-armed) attack submarines, and are also given support from surface warships. One of the functions of the fleet of nine new Boeing P-8 Poseidon maritime-patrol aircraft, also just ordered at a cost of a further £3 million, is to provide further protection. The total cost estimates now vary, over the lifetime of the new submarines and their missiles, from £140bn-£200bn. This huge commitment to just a single project causes concern not just in among the public but right across the armed services, including even the Royal Navy – although views from within the services rarely, if ever, surface in the public domain. [Trident]
• North Korea’s Ballistic Missile Submarine: Probable Post-Missile Test Maintenance; Construction Hall Externally Complete
  By 38 North 20 July 2016 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. Summary Recent commercial satellite imagery, acquired five days after the July 9 launch of the second KN-11 this year, shows post-test activity and provides a status update of the Sinpo South Shipyard, the homeport of North Korea’s GORAE-class ballistic missile submarine program.[1] Specifically: ?The GORAE-class submarine is berthed at its normal location in the secure boat basin. Probable post-test maintenance activity is being undertaken on the submarine with a heavy-lift crane and what appears to be a small truck or shipping container present dockside. ?The submersible test stand barge remains moored at the same location as identified on imagery from May 8, 2016. However, the support vessel that normally attends to it and the GORAE-class submarine is no longer present. ?After months of construction work on the launching way and construction hall, 360 meters south of the secure boat basin, both are externally complete. The status of work inside the hall remains unclear. [SLBM]
• DPRK fires 3 ballistic missiles: Yonhap
  Xinhua, July 19, 2016 The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) on Tuesday test-fired three short-range ballistic missiles in a show of force against the decision between Seoul and Washington to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) to South Korean soil. Yonhap news agency quoted South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) as saying that the DPRK fired off three ballistic missiles, which are believed to have been a Scud-C type, from the western region of Hwangju in North Hwanghae province between 5:45 a.m. and 6:05 a.m. The missiles were directed toward the East Sea, traveling about 500 to 600 kilometers, which are a flight enough to reach the entire South Korean territory. The test-launch came six days after Seoul and Washington agreed to deploy one THAAD battery to the Seongju county, some 250 km southeast of Seoul, by the end of next year. The DPRK's military threatened to take "physical measures" against THAAD when the deployment site is determined in response to the THAAD deployment decision. [Missiles] [THAAD]
• N.Korea Gets Busy at Nuke Test Site After THAAD Decision
  Suspicious activity seems to have increased at North Korea's remote nuclear test site since South Korea announced the deployment of a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense battery on July 8. Intelligence sources said fresh equipment and personnel have been spotted at the site in Punggye-ri, North Hamgyong Province since the announcement. Last week U.S. expert Joseph Bermudez said on the website 38 North that satellite imagery of the site's North Portal indicates supplies and equipment, small vehicles and several mine ore carts had arrived at the facility. [THAAD]
• Gov't Must Stop Meddling in Korea's Space Project
  The Korea Aerospace Research Institute has told the government that a scheduled test launch of Korea's first fully homegrown space rocket slated for December 2017 will have to be postponed by more than 10 months. Development of the engine and fuel tank is reportedly much slower than planned, so the full launch scheduled for 2019 and lunar landing eyed for 2020 will also be delayed. The project was to cost the country W2 trillion and originally aimed at a lunar expedition in 2025 (US$1=W1,145). But during her election campaign President Park Geun-hye pledged to put a Korean on the moon by 2020, causing the schedule to be drastically pushed forward. The test launch was pushed to 2018 so it could take place while she is still in office. Advanced nations are unwilling to share their rocket technology because other countries could use it to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles. And success is elusive even if with ample time for development. But Park has thrown a wrench into the entire space project. [SLV] [ICBM] [Park Geun-hye]
• North Korea: High-Level of Activity at Nuclear Test Site Portal but Purpose is Unclear
  By 38 North 11 July 2016 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates a high-level of activity at North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site, specifically at the North Portal area where the DPRK conducted its 2013 and 2016 nuclear tests. Based on imagery alone, it is not possible to determine whether this activity is for maintenance, excavation or preparation for a fifth nuclear test. Nevertheless, it is clear that North Korea is ensuring that the facility is in a state of readiness that would allow the conduct of future nuclear tests should the order come from Pyongyang.
• THAAD can destroy SLBMs: defense chief
  By Yi Whan-woo Defense Minister Han Min-koo said Sunday that the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system can intercept North Korea's submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBM). Downplaying concerns over THAAD's counterbalancing capability against attacks from submarines, the minister said the advanced missile defense system is capable of intercepting any North Korean missiles targeting South Korea regardless of their range and trajectories. "North Korea may fire an SLBM with a range of 2,000 kilometers by adjusting its angle if it were launched from the northeastern East Sea," Han said in a TV appearance. "It will be possible for THAAD to intercept the SLBM under such a scenario. And we'll detect and nullify the SLBM before it is launched." Han's remarks came after North Korea test-fired an SLBM, Saturday. The firing was seen as a move to show off Pyongyang's technological progress in SLBMs to protest a joint decision made between South Korea and the U.S. to deploy a THAAD battery on the Korean Peninsula, Friday. [THAAD] [SLBM]
• North Korea Still Faces Significant Challenges in Developing a Sea-Launched Missile: Expert
  By 38 North 09 July 2016 North Korea conducted what appeared to be another test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) off the east coast on Saturday, according to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff and a report by Seoul’s Yonhap News Agency. The missile was reportedly fired from Sinpo, South Hamgyong Province, at around 11:30 a.m. KST. The test came one day after the US and South Korea announced an agreement on the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system. An operational sea-launched missile, because it could be launched from different areas around the peninsula, would be one approach to overcome such a defense. “Little information is available about North Korea’s submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) test yesterday beyond that the missile launched successfully and then broke up or exploded at about ten kilometers altitude,” said John Schilling, an Aerospace Corporation Satellite and Launch Vehicle Propulsion Systems Specialist, and frequent contributor to 38 North, a project by the US-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins SAIS. “We may learn more in the days ahead if more information becomes available. Nevertheless, it appears that the increased pace of testing of North Korea’s Musudan missile is not limited to that program. It is quite possible that there will be more frequent SLBM tests and failures as well. Even with frequent testing, North Korea’s SLBM program still faces significant technical challenges and will likely require several years to deliver an operational system.” Sinpo Shipyard is located on the east coast, and is the primary manufacturing facility for North Korea’s submarines. An analysis of satellite imagery in January indicated that the shipyard was undergoing upgrades in preparation for a significant naval construction program. A report in May showed continued progress, and two weeks later on May 17, camouflage netting was spotted on the deck of a submarine, ostensibly meant to conceal ongoing development at the shipyard. [SLBM]
• N.Korea's SLBM test unsuccessful
  Updated : 2016-07-09 16:34 North Korea fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) off its east coast on Saturday, but the missile failed in its initial flight stage, South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said. The missile was fired from waters southeast of the coastal port city of Sinpo, South Hamgyong Province, at around 11:30 a.m., according to the military. "The SLBM was ejected from the submarine normally, but (we) estimate the initial flight was unsuccessful," the JCS said in a brief press release. [SLBM]
• Home-Grown Space Rocket Launch Hits Another Snag
  The epic saga of Korea's attempts to launch its own space rocket hit another snag Wednesday, when developers announced they are postponing the planned launch by 10 months because they have fallen behind. The rocket was to be launched in late 2017, but the Korea Aerospace Research Institute met with government officials Wednesday to tell them it could not be done. Development of the engine and fuel tank is reportedly much slower than hoped. A rocket's engine must keep blasting for at least 120 seconds after ignition, and the fuel tank must be welded using ultra high-precision technology, but KARI is having trouble in those areas. [KSVL] [$1.7b?]
• Kim Jong Un Guides Test-fire of Hwasong-10
  Submitted by KCNA on Thu, 06/23/2016 - 10:22 Pyongyang, June 23 (KCNA) -- Kim Jong Un, chairman of the Workers' Party of Korea, first chairman of the National Defence Commission of the DPRK and supreme commander of the Korean People's Army, guided the test-fire of surface-to-surface medium long-range strategic ballistic rocket Hwasong-10. At a watch post he gave an order to conduct the test-fire after hearing a report on its plan. The test-fire of Hwasong-10 was carried out by the high-angle fire system under the simulation of its maximum range. The ballistic rocket took off a self-propelled launching pad and accurately landed in the targeted waters 400km away after flying to the maximum altitude of 1 413. 6km along the planned flight orbit. The test-fire confirmed the flying kinetic feature of Korean-style ballistic rocket with an updated system and its safety and control as well as the technical specifications of newly-designed rocket structure and its dynamic system. It also verified the heat-resistance capability of warhead in the re-entry section and its flight stability. [Musudan] [Hwasong-10] [Reentry]
• China announces success in refueling satellites in orbit
  Xinhua, June 30, 2016 China has successfully completed the in-space refuel of orbital satellites following last week's launch of a new generation carrier rocket, the National University of Defense Technology announced on Thursday. Similar to air refueling for planes, the process refuels a satellite in orbit in a microgravity environment and will extend a satellite's functional life and boost its maneuver capabilities considerably. Developed by the university, Tianyuan-1 is the country's first in-space refueling system for orbital satellites. It was launched into orbit aboard the Long March-7 carrier rocket on Saturday. A series of core independent processes were tested and verified after the launch, with data and videos recording the full process sent back to earth, the university said in a statement. "The injection process was stable, and measurement and control were precise," it said, adding that the test proved that Tianyuan-1 met design requirements. Though an area of great interest, the process is complicated and only a few countries have began experiments. [Satellites]

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JUNE 2016

• Pentagon Confirms N.Korean Missile Success
  The U.S. Defense Department on Monday confirmed that a North Korean medium-range ballistic missile dubbed Hwasong-10 reached space and then re-entered the atmosphere on June 22. Pentagon spokesman Capt. Jeff Davis told reporters, "We saw the missile launch. We saw it go up into space and come back down 250 miles away in the [East Sea]. If that was their intent, then it was a success. But you'd have to ask them." The re-entry process requires a ballistic missile's booster separating from the warhead in outer space and the warhead maintaining a constant speed when re-entering the atmosphere while withstanding heat of 6,000-7,000 degrees Celsius. The North Korean missile's trajectory showed that part of it re-entered the atmosphere and fell into the sea. But it is not clear whether the part was the whole payload or a fragment. Washington and Seoul are still analyzing the data, a U.S. official said. Davis pointed out that five earlier attempts failed. It seems that the missile flew at a speed of Mach 15 to 16 when it re-entered the atmosphere, more slowly than the Mach 24 that could threaten the mainland U.S., a spokesman for the South Korean Defense Ministry commented. [Musudan] [Reentry]
• US says North Korean missile reentered earth’s atmosphere
  Posted on : Jun.29,2016 18:03 KST Reentry would signify progress for N. Korea’s missile program, but Washington won’t say the North has perfected reentry technology The US Defense Department confirmed on June 27 that the Hwasong-10 ballistic missile recently test-launched by North Korea traveled into space and reentered the atmosphere. “We saw the missile launch. We saw it go up into space and come back down 250 miles away in the Sea of Japan [East Sea],” Yonhap News quoted Pentagon spokesperson Capt. Jeff Davis as saying in a press conference that day. “If that was their intent, then it was a success. But you’d have to ask them,” Davis was also quoted as saying. His remarks were the first confirmation by the US government of North Korean claims that the Hwasong-10 reentered the earth‘s atmosphere. The ballistic missile launched by North Korea is apparently a Musudan missile. [Musudan]
• North Korean Missile Launches
  Konstantin Asmolov On June 22, 2016, North Korea conducted two unsuccessful launches of medium-range presumably Musudan-type missiles. According to the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Korea, the first missile was launched from the area of the city of Wonsan, Gangwon province at 5:58 am and flew 150-160 kilometers, the second one was launched at 8:05 am and flew 400 kilometers. Both missiles, however, exploded in mid-air, and the debris fell into the East Sea. [Musudan]
• North Korea creates new space focused NGO
  New organisation will pool knowledge of academics and technicians working on space technologies Leo Byrne June 28th, 2016 North Korea has created a new space related organisation called the Korea Space Association, according to an article from the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) published on Monday. The article claims the new group is a non-governmental organisation (NGO) that will pool the expertise of academics, researchers and technical staff with knowledge of space related technologies. “Its mission is to promote the peaceful development and utilization of space, a wealth common to mankind, through brisk academic exchanges at home and abroad,” the article reads. The chairman of the newly formed Korea Space Association Ri Won Chol, also vice-president of the Kim Chaek University of Technology, said the organisation will also seek to cooperate closely with international bodies and aerospace organisations in other countries. But the idea of an NGO in North Korea working on space related technologies, using employees who are presumably employed by various state run organisations like the Kim Chaek University of Technology, is an unusual one in the DPRK. “All activities in the DPRK are carried out under the guidance of the Korean Workers’ Party (KWP). There are no NGOs as we describe them in other countries,” Daniel Pinkston, lecturer at Troy University and North Korea watcher, told NK News. The creation of the space focused group could also raise eyebrows amongst North Korea’s sanctions enforcement community. The country’s organisation at the heart of the DPRK’s space ambitions is the National Aerospace Development Administration (NADA), a group sanctioned in March as part of the UN’s Resolution 2270. “NADA is involved in the DPRK’s development of space science and technology, including satellite launches and carrier rockets,” the document reads, also calling member states to freeze assets related to the organisation. Creating new organisations not affiliated with NADA and claiming they are not related to the North Korean government could potentially allow the DPRK to skirt sanctions. The most recent UN Panel of Experts report highlighted such a case, where NADA employees were receiving potentially sanctions breaking training at a post graduate school in India. “North Korea has a space program and has legitimate interests in having access to outer space for peaceful purposes. However, space launch technology is dual-use. It’s very difficult to separate the civilian and military applications,” Pinkston added. “This is another way of trying to challenge the United Nations Security Council resolutions prohibiting ballistic missile launches, including those in a space launch configuration.” [Space]
• A Partial Success for the Musudan: Addendum
  By John Schilling 28 June 2016 North Korea has just released an image of Kim Jong Un posing in front of a Musudan missile (Hwasong-10) with the reentry vehicle removed. In addition to showing the grid fins in their stowed configuration, this view shows us the missile’s guidance package. The resolution is not high enough to positively identify specific components or assemblies, but it clearly isn’t the guidance system from a 1960s-vintage Russian R-27 missile. In the original Russian design, the rather bulkier guidance system was fit into a depressed cavity at the top of the propellant tank; the North Koreans have instead fit the electronics into the narrow space atop a normal tank dome. This means they have rebuilt the tank dome as well as the guidance system, though this comes as no surprise given that the missile’s propellant tanks have been stretched by almost 2.5 meters to increase its range. [Musudan]
• Is N. Korea's missile as effective as they say?
  By Lee Han-soo On June 22, North Korea fired a Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missile from Wonsan, the sixth firing this year, but considered only the first acceptable launch. The missile flew to an altitude 1414 kilometers and had a range of 400 kilometers. The U.S. Department of Defense on Monday acknowledged that the missile had reentered the atmosphere from space. Whether the missile is a threat to South Korean and U.S. bases in the Pacific Ocean is still controversial among experts. But it is believed North Korea still has some kinks to work out before the missile can be deployed. Experts say the Musudan's speed was slow enough to be intercepted by certain missile defense systems. They also say the missile did not reach a minimum speed of Mach 20 (20 times the speed of sound) and it uses outdated thrust technology. The missile's biggest weakness is that it can be intercepted. [Musudan] [THAAD]
• INTERNATIONAL PEOPLES' TRIBUNAL ON THE NUCLEAR POWERS AND THE DESTRUCTION OF HUMAN CIVILISATION
  Human Survival Project People For Nuclear Disarmament Aotearoa Lawyers For Peace
  An International Peoples' Tribunal announced today is laying charges against the leaders of the nuclear-armed states for threatening the end of human civilization and possibly even human extinction. ‘We are indicting the nuclear powers in light of the increasing evidence of the risks of nuclear weapons use arising from their policies and practices, and the catastrophic consequences of such use,’ says Prof Peter King, a founder of the Center for Peace and Conflict Studies and convener of its Human Survival Project at Sydney University, and one of the Tribunal organizers. The Tribunal is being convened by Peter King, and People for Nuclear Disarmament (PND) UN lobbyist, John Hallam. It has a cast of distinguished international lawyers, including the Hon. Matt Robson, former NZ Minister for Courts; international law expert Alan Webb; US lawyer David Krieger, adviser for the Marshall Islands case against the nuclear weapons states at the International Court of Justice (ICJ); French law professor Emilie Gaillard, expert on law protecting future generations; Daniel Reitiker, President of the Association of Swiss Lawyers for Nuclear Disarmament and expert in human rights law, and Alyn Ware, consultant to the International Association of Lawyers Against Nuclear Arms(IALANA) and lead prosecutor for the Tribunal. Mr Ware played a key role in the 1996 ICJ case on the legality of the threat or use of nuclear weapons. [Nuclear disarmament]
• China launches new generation carrier rocket
  Xinhua, June 25, 2016 A Long March-7 carrier rocket lifts off from Wenchang Satellite Launch Center, south China's Hainan Province, June 25, 2016. (Xinhua/Li Gang) China on Saturday successfully blasted off its new generation carrier rocket Long March-7 from a new space launch center in Wenchang, Hainan province. In a cloud of white smoke, the rocket, carrying a scaled-down version of "a reentry module of a multi-function spacecraft," ascended against a the dark sky, trailing a vast column of flame. Minutes later, Wang Hongyao, deputy chief commander of the mission, declared the launch a success. He said the rocket's payload, including the reentry module, separated from the rocket 603 seconds after blast-off, and entered an oval orbit with a low point, or perigee, of 200 kilometers, and a high point, or apogee, of 394 kilometers. The re-entry module is expected to return to Earth on Sunday afternoon, after orbiting the Earth for 13 times. It is expected to land in a desert in China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, close to the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center. The Long March-7 is a medium-sized, two-stage rocket that can carry up to 13.5 tonnes to low-Earth orbit (LEO). Experts say the 53.1-meter-long, 597-tonne rocket will become the main carrier for China's future space missions. Earlier reports said the rocket now uses kerosene and liquid oxygen as fuel, rather than the highly toxic propellant, making it more environmental friendly and less expensive. Saturday's launch is the first by the Wenchang site, and the 230th of China's Long March carrier rocket family. [SLV]
• South Korean military says N. Korean Musudan missile could hit Guam
  Posted on : Jun.25,2016 14:53 KST Defense Minister not sure if THAAD missile defense system could successfully intercept a Musudan If the “Hwasong-10 surface-to-surface intermediate-range strategic ballistic rocket” (presumed to be the Musudan missile) that North Korea claims to have successfully test-launched were launched on a standard trajectory instead of at a high angle, its maximum travel distance would be 3,500km, South Korean military analysts have concluded. This would place the American base on the Pacific island of Guam within striking distance. “The Musudan missile that North Korea launched had a maximum elevation of 1,400km, and our simulation suggests that it has a maximum range of 3,500km,” a South Korean military officer said on June 24. “Based on the simulation data, when the Musudan missile [that North Korea fired on June 22] left and then reentered the earth’s atmosphere, it had a maximum falling velocity between Mach 15 and 17,” the military official said. If this is true, the missile probably could not be shot down by the South Korean military’s PAC-2 Patriot missiles or the US military’s upgraded PAC-3 Patriot missiles. Though the PAC-3 has better performance than the PAC, it reportedly only flies at a speed of Mach 3.5 and 5. [Musudan] [Deterrence] [THAAD]
• North Korea: Another Missile Test to Challenge International Community
  Peter Korzun | 24.06.2016 North Korea took a significant step on June 22 in the development of a powerful ballistic missile. This test is special, because the missile’s potential 3,500-kilometer (2,180-mile) range puts much of Asia and the Pacific, including US military bases there, within reach. The Musudan, also known as the Nodong-B or the Taepodong-X, is an intermediate-range ballistic missile. Its lower range would enable it to hit the whole of South Korea and Japan. At its upper range it would be able to target US military bases on Guam [Musudan] [Russian IR] [Bizarre] [Appeasement]
• KMS-4 Nose Fairing Debris Found on Japanese Coast
  By 38 North 24 June 2016 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Nathan Hunt and Jack Liu. Summary On June 17, more than four months after North Korea launched the Kwangmyongsong-4 (KMS-4) satellite, the Japanese Defense Ministry reported the discovery of the second half of the launch vehicle nose fairing on a beach in Yurihama, Tottori Prefecture, about 1000 km southeast of the Sohae Satellite Launching Station. The first nose fairing was recovered soon after the February 7 launch just off the coast of the South Korean Jeju Island (about 740 km south of Sohae). An assessment of photographs of the latest debris and the KMS launch vehicle used in the February 7 launch, suggests they match, although it is remarkable that the fairing material was buoyant enough to drift to Japan. [Satellite] [KMS-4]
• [News analysis] Can North Korea really strike US bases on Guam?
  Posted on : Jun.24,2016 13:50 KST Recent missile launch indicates progress after a series of failures, but not yet clear if North has developed reentry technology North Korea announced on June 23 that its test launch of the “Hwasong-10 intermediate-range strategic ballistic rocket” (presumed to be the Musudan missile) had succeeded after a string of failed launches since April. A large number of North Korean media reports about the “successful” test launch (following five unsuccessful tests) are laying to rest some of the doubts that have been raised. There are some minor differences in the tentative assessments that the South Korean, American and Japanese governments have offered about whether the test was really successful, as North Korea is claiming. First, North Korea announced that the missile that was successfully test-launched is the “Hwasong-10 surface-to-surface intermediate-range strategic ballistic rocket.” This is presumed to be a reference to the Musudan missile. [Musudan]
• A Partial Success for the Musudan
  By John Schilling 23 June 2016 Summary North Korea’s latest Musudan (Hwasong-10) missile test finally demonstrated the full performance of the missile’s propulsion system, and at least a minimally functional guidance system. The trajectory was not representative of an operational launch, and so leaves open questions about the performance of the reentry vehicle. Perhaps more importantly, two launches only a few hours apart and with one missile breaking up in flight, gives the North Koreans little chance of understanding what went wrong. The Musudan is not a reliable weapon, and Pyongyang does not seem to be trying to make it a reliable weapon. But even if this is just a propaganda stunt and the Musudan is to be quietly abandoned, this partial success increases the likelihood that North Korea’s KN-08 and KN-14 road-mobile inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) will reach operational status early in the next decade. [Musudan]
• Kim Jong-un Claims Missiles 'Can Strike U.S.'
  North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on Wednesday claimed his country's missiles can strike the U.S. "We have the sure capability to attack in an overall and practical way the Americans in the Pacific operation theater," the official [North] Korean Central News Agency quoted him as saying. Kim's boast came after North Korea finally succeeded in launching one mid-range ballistic missile, which flew a mere 400 km, nowhere near the touted range of 3,000 to 4,000 km that would put U.S. bases in Guam within reach. Five earlier tests failed disastrously. Kim watched the test of what North Korea now calls a Hwasong-10 missile. Accompanying pictures showed the chubby leader hugging officials. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (right) hugs an official after the launch of a mid-range ballistic missile in this photo released by Rodong Sinmun on Thursday. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (right) hugs an official after the launch of a mid-range ballistic missile in this photo released by Rodong Sinmun on Thursday. KCNA said the missile was fired at a high angle "to simulate its full range" and flew along a projected trajectory to reach a height of 1,413.6 km. It then fell into the target area in waters 400 km away. It added the North now has the technology allowing missile warheads to re-enter the earth's atmosphere. [Musudan] [Deterrence]
• U.S. Condemns N.Korean Missile Launch
  The White House on Wednesday condemned North Korea's launch of two mid-range ballistic missiles, calling it a "flagrant violation" of the North’s international obligations. "I do think that the impact of these provocations will be to only strengthen the resolve of the international community that has such serious concerns with North Korea's behavior," White House spokesman Josh Ernest told reporters. The U.S. "will do what we have done in the past, which is work with the international community, particularly our allies in South Korea and Japan." "We'll also continue our ongoing dialogue with the Chinese and the Russians about what additional pressure can be applied to the North Koreans." [Musudan] [Inversion]
• With N. Korea’s Musudan progress, Seoul pulled further into US-Japan missile defense
  Posted on : Jun.24,2016 13:46 KST An image from Korean Central Television of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un hugging air force commander Yi Pyong-chol, while celebrating the launch of a Hwasong-10, or Musudan, missile, which North Korea claimed was successful, June 23. (Yonhap News) Still too early to determine if recent Musudan launch was a success, but Washington more insistent on deploying THAAD in S. Korea South Korea is being drawn deeper into the US- and Japan-led missile defense system after North Korea’s June 22 test launch of the Musudan (Hwasong-10) missile, which revealed substantial development in intermediate-range ballistic missile technology. [Musudan] [THAAD]
• North Korea launches two missiles…were they “successful”?
  Posted on : Jun.23,2016 17:12 KST Launches indicate possibility of technological progress, but still too early to draw a conclusion On the morning of June 22, North Korea launched what were presumed to be two Musudan intermediate range ballistic missiles. These were the fifth and sixth Musudan missiles (Hwasong 10) that it has launched this year. The second missile launched on Wednesday traveled for 400km, the first one to do so, suggesting that Pyongyang has made some technological progress. Between Apr. 15 and May 31, North Korea launched four missiles, presumably Musudan missiles, all of which failed either by exploding in midair or by falling into the ocean. But one of the two Musudan missiles launched yesterday - the sixth altogether - traveled for 400km. This appears to demonstrate that North Korea managed to use the failed launches to make considerable progress on correcting the missiles’ technical flaws. [Musudan]
• The goal of North Korea’s obsession with the Musudan missile
  Posted on : Jun.23,2016 17:13 KST Pyongyang is dedicated to developing a missile capable of a direct strike on US military base in Guam Even after several previous launches of the Musudan missile had failed, North Korea launched two more missiles on June 22, showing how dedicated it is to achieving a successful launch. North Korea reportedly deployed the Musudan (BM-25, Hwasong 10), which has an estimated range of more than 3,000km, in 2007, but it had never launched the missile until this April. As of June 22, North Korea has launched the missiles six times. Except for the sixth missile, all of these launches have been considered definite failures. The goal behind North Korea’s seemingly foolhardy obsession with the Musudan missile is to use a successful launch to show that it has the ability to launch a direct strike on the US military base on the island of Guam in the Pacific Ocean, military analysts believe. [Musudan] [Deterrence]
• NK missile test accelerating THAAD discussion
  By Jun Ji-hye North Korea's purported successful test of an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) is expected to accelerate ongoing talks between South Korea and the United States on deploying an advanced U.S. missile defense system here. Following the missile launch on Wednesday, U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter said the North's latest IRBM test underscored the need for Washington and its allies to build strong missile defenses. "For whatever reason, and with whatever level of success, this shows the need for us to continue to do what we're doing, which is build these missile defenses of various ranges to protect both our South Korean allies, U.S. forces on the Korean Peninsula, Japan and U.S. territory," Carter said during a visit to the U.S. Army post at Fort Knox, Kentucky, according to the Pentagon. [THAAD] [Musudan] [Pretext]
• Another N.Korean Missile Test Fails
  North Korea tested two Musudan medium-range ballistic missiles in early hours of Wednesday. The Joint Chiefs of Staff here said that the North fired one missile at around 6:00 a.m. and the other one two hours later in Wonsan, Kangwon Province. The first launch appears to have failed while it is not known how the second launch went, according to the JCS. Four earlier tests over the past two months also failed. The Musudan seems designed to strike U.S. military bases on Guam, from where U.S. bombers would take off in case of a war on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea deployed the missile, which is based on the old Soviet SS-N-6 submarine-launched missile, warfare-ready in 2007, but all tests since then have failed disastrously due to engine or fuel problems. Japanese Defense Minister Gen Nakatani has ordered forces to destroy any North Korean missile if it enters Japanese airspace or waters with PAC-3 Patriot missiles. It also plans to deploy Aegis ships armed with SM-3 intercept missiles. [Musudan] [IRBM]
• N. Korea missile becomes real threat
  By Jun Ji-hye Updated : 2016-06-22 21:44 North Korea's latest launches of the Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) shows that Pyongyang has fixed its problems after six test firings since April. This raises concerns that the threat of the North's operational IRBMs, which could strike any target in Japan and also reach Guam, home to U.S. naval and air bases, has become a reality. After five consecutive failures including one conducted at 5:58 a.m. Wednesday, the North is believed to have succeeded in launching the missile to some extent in its sixth attempt conducted at 8:05 a.m. the same day. The sixth missile flew about 400 kilometers, a far longer distance compared to the other missiles previously launched. [Musudan]
• North Korea fires missile 400 kilometers
  By Jun Ji-hye North Korea fired two missiles from its east coast Wednesday morning, with the second one flying about 400 kilometers, officials said. The first one exploded mid-air after flying some 150 kilometers. It was too early to call the second missile a success or failure, though it marked the most notable improvement of North Korea's missile technology yet, the officials said. Following the launch of what appeared to be Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs), National Security Office chief Kim Kwan-jin called an emergency meeting of the National Security Council at Cheong Wa Dae. [Musudan]
• N. Korea missile test no more than partial success: US expert
  Even though the North's Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missile flew 400 kilometers in the sixth test attempt, the launch is no more than a partial success, a top U.S. missile expert said Wednesday. John Schilling, an aerospace engineer and consultant to the U.S.-Korea Institute's "38 North" website, gave the assessment to Yonhap News Agency, saying the flight distance is still well short of the missile's maximum range and the sixth test came shortly after a fifth test failed. "They will very likely claim this test as a success but having flown only about a tenth of the Musudan's expected maximum range would make it hard to credit it as more than partially successful," Schilling said in an email to Yonhap. The North could have deliberately aimed short, but that might "reflect lack of confidence as much as it does sensitivity to Japanese concerns," the expert said. Had the North wanted to fly the missile longer, it could have used the Dongchang-ri or Sohae launching site in the country's west, instead of firing the missile from the east coast. [Musudan]
• North Korea missile reaches new heights, intensifying threat to Japan
  Reuters Jun 22, 2016 TOKYO North Korea launched what appeared to be an intermediate-range missile on Wednesday to a high altitude in the direction of Japan before it plunged into the sea, military officials said, a technological advance for the isolated state after several test failures. The launch came about two hours after a similar test failed, South Korea's military said, and covered 400 km (250 miles), more than halfway towards the southwest coast of Japan's main island of Honshu. The launches and earlier nuclear tests show continued defiance of international warnings and a series of U.N. Security Council resolutions and sanctions, which North Korea rejects as an infringement of its sovereignty. Japanese Defence Minister Gen Nakatani said the second missile reached an altitude of 1,000 km (620 miles), indicating North Korea had made progress. "We don't know whether it counts as a success, but North Korea has shown some capability with IRBMs (intermediate range ballistic missiles)," he told reporters in Tokyo. "The threat to Japan is intensifying." [Musudan] [Threat] [Japanese remilitarisation]
• America Already Has More Than Enough Nuclear Missiles
  But Republicans are pushing a $1 trillion nuclear modernization program, which would not only bankrupt the Pentagon but could spark a global nuclear arms race. • By Adam Smith • June 17, 2016 This summer, Congress has been tying itself up in knots, trying to decide how to adequately fund U.S. national defense priorities, given the limits imposed by sequestration. But the difficult reality is that, however we choose to address immediate challenges, any rational attempt to plan for America’s future security must begin with a clear-eyed reassessment of the costs, trade-offs, and dangers of the trillion-dollar plan Washington is undertaking to modernize the U.S. nuclear weapons complex. That reassessment should include an effort to eliminate the new nuclear cruise missile. [Nuclear weapons]
• NK believed to have produced additional 4-6 nuclear weapons since 2014
  Updated : 2016-06-15 14:21 North Korea is believed to have produced an additional four to six nuclear weapons since late 2014, with its total arsenal now estimated at between 13-21 weapons, a U.S. think tank said Tuesday. The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) released the assessment in a report, making estimates about the amounts of weapons-grade plutonium and highly enriched uranium the North is believed to have produced at its Yongbyon nuclear complex. [Nuclear weapons]
• Deconstructing nuclear deterrence
  Timmon Wallis 12 June 2016 Military and political leaders who might seriously threaten the UK are simply unlikely to be deterred by the threat to destroy their cities. Defence Secretary Michael Fallon visiting Vanguard-class submarine HMS Vigilant at Faslane in Scotland, 2016. Danny Lawson / Press Association . All rights reserved. Jonathan Leader Maynard, who says there is a ‘strong case’ for Trident renewal, and Ian Sinclair, who says there is no such case, both agree on one thing: the language we use to discuss such matters is itself part of the problem. We must watch out for “terms which, whilst purportedly neutral and technical, subtly encourage certain ways of thinking,” says Maynard. “Everyone – academic, politician, journalist or just interested citizen – should reflect critically on the use of such terms and the connotations they encourage,” he says. Although Maynard himself addresses a number of the terms which Sinclair has criticised, he does not pick up at all on the word ‘deterrence’ itself – easily the most loaded term in the whole vocabulary of nuclear weapons.
  If Trident were cancelled tomorrow, the reality is that noone in the UK would notice. The idea that we would somehow be less safe and more vulnerable to attack without Trident is, frankly, preposterous. Former Navy Commander Rob Green has likened Trident to the Emperor’s New Clothes: this super-duper new weapon sounds pretty impressive, but actually it does nothing and therefore is not powerful at all. [Trident] [Deterrence]
• The Doomsday Clock: Nuclear Weapons, Climate Change, and the Prospects for Survival
  Noam Chomsky • June 12, 2016
  [This essay is excerpted from Noam Chomsky’s new book, Who Rules the World? (Metropolitan Books).] In January 2015, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists advanced its famous Doomsday Clock to three minutes before midnight, a threat level that had not been reached for 30 years. The Bulletin’s statement explaining this advance toward catastrophe invoked the two major threats to survival: nuclear weapons and “unchecked climate change.” The call condemned world leaders, who “have failed to act with the speed or on the scale required to protect citizens from potential catastrophe,” endangering “every person on Earth [by] failing to perform their most important duty — ensuring and preserving the health and vitality of human civilization.” Since then, there has been good reason to consider moving the hands even closer to doomsday.
• Feinstein Takes Aim at Nuclear Cruise Missile Funding
  Aaron Mehta, Defense News 10:33 a.m. EDT April 14, 2016 WASHINGTON — Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., said Wednesday she would seek to block funding for the Air Force’s new nuclear-capable cruise missile program. The ranking member of the Senate Appropriations Committee's subcommittee on energy and water development, which has oversight over Department of Energy nuclear weapons funding, said she believes the long range standoff (LRSO) cruise missile "is unaffordable, and may well be unnecessary." "Spending on this weapon, and the warhead, would crowd out other funding for higher national security priorities," she added. [Cruise missiles] [Nuclear weapons]
• Needle in a Haystack: How North Korea Could Fight a Nuclear War
  By Garth McLennan 13 June 2016 Since its January 6 test of what was claimed to be a hydrogen bomb and a follow-up satellite launch on February 7, North Korea’s nuclear weapons program has received a considerable amount of attention. The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) unanimously passed Resolution 2270 at the beginning of March[1] in what has been widely viewed as one of the most sweeping sets of economic sanctions on Pyongyang to date. In addition, American officials have pressed their reluctant Chinese counterparts for greater cooperation in checking Pyongyang, South Korea closed down the Kaesong Industrial Zone it operates with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), and Washington has refocused attention on the possibility of deploying the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system to the Republic of Korea (ROK). Much less coverage and attention has been paid to how the North Korean leadership might actually use nuclear weapons in a live, operational setting. The avoidance of discussion on this issue is hardly surprising; analysis of nuclear combat theory and doctrine is somewhat of a taboo in the strategic community,[2] almost certainly borne of the ideas of mutually-assured-destruction (MAD) and measurements in megadeaths (a morbid metric defining nuclear combat deaths of at least one million) that were derived from the conclusions reached by Cold War thinkers and analysts. [Nuclear strategy] [THAAD]
• N. Korea could have started nuclear reprocessing: IAEA
  North Korea could have started reprocessing spent nuclear fuel to harvest plutonium for nuclear weapons, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Monday. "The DPRK (North Korea) resumed the activities of five megawatt reactors or enrichment or reprocessing," IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano said at a press briefing in Vienna, referring to facilities at the North's Yongbyon nuclear complex. "However, as we do not have inspectors on the ground, we are only observing through satellite imagery. We cannot state for sure, but we have indications of certain activities through the satellite imagery," he said. [Yongbyon] [IAEA] [UNUS]
• Why Donald Trump's plan for Japan would be a nightmare for Asia
  Updated by Sheila A. Smith on May 24, 2016, 8:10 a.m. ET President Barack Obama's historic visit to Hiroshima, Japan, on May 27 to honor the memory of those killed and injured when the US dropped the atomic bomb on the city in 1945, comes, ironically, as the argument that Japan should reconsider the nuclear option has reemerged. But it is not the Japanese who are breaking the "nuclear taboo"; it is a prominent American: the Republican Party’s presumptive nominee for president. Japan has long eschewed the acquisition of nuclear weapons, choosing instead to rely on the United States to deter any potential threat from its nuclear neighbors. But Donald Trump recently stated that should he become president, he would consider ending the US commitment to Japan’s defense and encouraging it to develop its own nuclear arsenal. [Trump] [Japanese remilitarisation] [Nuclearisation]
• The Bigger Nuclear Risk: Trump or Clinton?
  By Robert Parry Global Research, June 03, 2016 Consortium News 2 June 2016 Hillary Clinton made a strong case for why handing the nuclear codes over to a President Donald Trump would be a scary idea, but there may be equal or even greater reason to fear turning them over to her. In perhaps the most likely area where nuclear war could break out – along Russia’s borders – Clinton comes across as the more belligerent of the two. In Clinton’s world view, President Vladimir Putin, who has been elected multiple times and has approval ratings around 80 percent, is nothing more than a “dictator” who is engaged in “aggression” that threatens NATO following the U.S.-backed “regime change” in Ukraine. “Moscow has taken aggressive military action in Ukraine, right on NATO’s doorstep,” she declared. But stop for a second and think about what Clinton said: she sees Russia responding to an unconstitutional coup in Ukraine – which installed a virulently anti-Russian regime on Russia’s border – as Moscow acting aggressively “on NATO’s doorstep.” That’s the same NATO, whose job it was to protect Western Europe from the Soviet Union, that — following the Soviet Union’s collapse — added country after country right up to Russia’s border. In other words, NATO muscled its way into Russia’s face and has announced plans to incorporate Ukraine as well, but when Russia reacts, it’s the one doing the provoking. [Hillary Clinton]
• S. Korea should build nuclear-powered submarine: expert
  South Korea needs to build a nuclear-powered submarine to better counter North Korea's possible nuclear and missile attacks, an expert at Seoul's state-run think tank said Friday. With the new atomic energy pact reached between South Korea and the United States in 2015, the last restrictions to building a nuclear-powered sub have been removed, claimed Boo Hyeong-wook, a chief research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA). The pact permits Seoul to make low-enriched uranium with U.S. consent that can be used as fuel. "The possession of a nuclear-powered submarine will allow us to better counter North Korea's possible nuclear and missile attacks," Boo said at a seminar held on a warship anchored at the country's southern resort island of Jeju. Nuclear-powered subs have far greater range and can effectively stay submerged as long as they have nuclear fuel and food. [Military balance] [Submarine] [SLBM]
• N.Korean TV Boasts of Missile Success
  A ballistic missile is being launched from a submarine in the East Sea in this screen grab from the Norths KCNA news agency. A ballistic missile is being launched from a submarine in the East Sea in this screen grab from the North's KCNA news agency. North Korea state TV on Wednesday broadcast footage of a ballistic missile launched from a submarine in April. In a propaganda program, leader Kim Jong-un is seen watching the missile spouting flames and soaring into the air. Other senior officials look on and cheer. The footage coincided with a cap-in-hand visit to China by Kim's special envoy Ri Su-yong and came only a day after yet another attempt by the North to launch a mid-range Musudan missile failed disastrously. [SLBM]
• Missile Failures Hamper N.Korea's Nuke Ambitions
  North Korea on Tuesday failed yet again to launch a Musudan missile, the fourth failure in two months, meaning the new rocket deployed to much fanfare in 2007 has never been successfully tested. The Joint Chiefs of Staff on Tuesday said the North attempted to launch the missile in Wonsan, Kangwon Province in the early morning. The JCS added that the type of missile remains unclear but Kyodo News quoted Japanese government sources as saying it appears to have been a Musudan missile, which is transported by a mobile launch vehicle. Korean and Japanese government sources said the missile blew up during the launch. The missile forms part of North Korea's desperate attempts to develop a missile capable of delivering a nuclear weapon. The first Musudan test launch on April 15 failed when the missile exploded in flight, and two more tests later that month resulted in the missile falling to the ground far short of its intended target or exploding in mid air. North Korea seems to be trying to fix the glitches, but the missile on Tuesday blew up before it even left the launch pad, suggesting serious technological flaws. South Korean military officials and arms experts believe North Korea is pushing ahead despite the catastrophic failures because it desperately needs the weapon. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un ordered scientists to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of being fitted with a nuclear warhead, which leaves them with no choice but to keep trying. [Missile] [Musudan]
• Three (or Four) Strikes for the Musudan?
  By John Schilling 01 June 2016 North Korea has reportedly tried and failed to launch a Musudan missile for a third time in two months. It is not surprising that a new missile would fail on its first test, but previous North Korean practice has been to stand down for several months to a year before another attempt. Repeating a failed test again and again with no more than a month for analysis and troubleshooting will almost guarantee repeated failure. One of the tests apparently involved two simultaneous launches, and launching two copies of an unproven design just meant a double failure while learning nothing new. Whether this unrealistic tempo is driven by impatience or desperation, it may mark the end of the Musudan program—whose military utility is in any case increasingly questionable as North Korea’s other programs advance. [Musudan]
• New Evidence of Probable Plutonium Production at the Yongbyon Nuclear Facility
  By 38 North 31 May 2016 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr. Summary Recent commercial satellite imagery shows new evidence that North Korea is preparing to commence or has already begun conducting a reprocessing campaign to separate more plutonium for nuclear weapons at the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center. This activity consists of the presence of two loaded railroad flatcars at the Radiochemical Laboratory loaded with casks or tanks that may be associated with chemicals used in a preprocessing campaign, a small exhaust plume at the facility’s thermal plant, the replenishing of the coal stockpile for that plant and the likelihood that the 5 MWe reactor is operating at a low level of power or not at all. Also, the North appears to have halted work at Building 500, a facility used to store liquid and solid waste in the past from reprocessing campaigns. Exactly how much new plutonium Pyongyang can produce if such a campaign is underway remains unclear given uncertainties about the level of operations at the 5 MWe reactor which restarted in 2013. At maximum capacity, the reactor could produce approximately 6 kilograms of plutonium per year, probably enough for two nuclear weapons. [Plutonium]
• It’s Not About the Moon: The Military and Economic Logics to South Korean Space Exploration
  By Clint Work and Seonhee Kim | May 31, 2016 | No Comments by Clint Work and Kim Seon-hee1) On April 27, the United States and the Republic of Korea signed a Framework Agreement for Cooperation in Aeronautics and the Exploration and Use of Airspace and Outer Space for Civil and Peaceful Purposes. The agreement not only signals the broadening and deepening of the US-ROK alliance but the ongoing, deliberate, and relatively rapid development of South Korea’s space program. [SLV] [US-SK alliance]
• N.Korea Botches Another Missile Test
  North Korea early Tuesday morning tested another missile but the launch appears to have failed again. Several tests also went belly-up last month. South Korean and the U.S. surveillance satellites had detected movements of a mobile launch vehicle carrying a Musudan missile in Wonsan, Kangwon Province ahead of the test, and the Japanese government put forces on alert to shoot down any projectile heading for the country. The Musudan missile with a range of some 3,000 km is thought to be capable of striking Japan and U.S. military bases on Guam if it can be made to work. The North deployed the Musudan warfare-ready in 2007, but tests on April 15 and 29 this year also resulted in the missiles blowing up in mid-air. [Missile] [Musudan]
• N. Korea missile test fails again
  By Jun Ji-hye North Korea attempted to launch what appeared to be a Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) Tuesday morning, but it exploded right after ignition, according to the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS). This is the fourth time this year that Pyongyang has failed to launch a Musudan ? a humiliating series of incidents for the Kim Jong-un regime. The failures also cast serious doubts over the quality of the missiles, which were first deployed when Kim's late father, Kim Jong-il, ruled the regime. " North Korea attempted to launch an unidentified missile from Wonsan, Gangwon Province, at around 5:20 a.m., but it is presumed to have been unsuccessful," said the JCS in a briefing. "The military is studying details of the launch and is maintaining a high level of combat readiness in preparation for any additional provocations." [Missile] [IRBM] [Musudan]

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MAY 2016

• Nuclear War: An Unrecognized Mass Extinction Event Waiting To Happen
  Steven Starr Symposium: The Dynamics of Possible Nuclear Extinction The New York Academy of Medicine, 28 February - 1 March 2015 Introduction by Dr. Helen Caldicott This is the second session which will be as meaty as the first. The first speaker is Steven Starr, Associate of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, former board member and senior scientist for Physicians for Social Responsibility. He’s going to talk about Nuclear War: An Unrecognized Mass Extinction Event Waiting to Happen. Steven: Nuclear War: An Unrecognized Mass Extinction Event Waiting to Happen Thank you Helen. In 1945, Albert Einstein said, “The release of atomic power has changed everything except our way of thinking.” In 2015, seventy years later, we are still stockpiling nuclear weapons in preparation for nuclear war. Our continued willingness to allow huge nuclear arsenals to exist clearly shows that we have not fundamentally grasped the most important truth of the nuclear age: that a nuclear war is not likely to be survived by the human species. A war fought with 21st century strategic nuclear weapons would be more than just a great catastrophe in human history. If we allow it to happen, such a war would be a mass extinction event that ends human history. There is a profound difference between extinction and “an unprecedented disaster,” or even “the end of civilization,” because even after such an immense catastrophe, human life would go on. But extinction, by definition, is an event of utter finality, and a nuclear war that could cause human extinction should really be considered as the ultimate criminal act. It certainly would be the crime to end all crimes. [Nuclear weapons]
• To Hell and Back: Hiroshima and Nagasaki
  Peter Lee I have a piece up at Asia Times To Hell and Back: Obama, Hiroshima, and Nuclear Denial and a companion piece, To Hell and Back: Hiroshima and Nagasaki, up at CounterPunch, just in time for President Obama’s visit & promised non-apology at Hiroshima. “To Hell and Back” is a phrase that can bear a pretty heavy metaphorical load when it comes to talking about the atomic bombings of Nagasaki and Hiroshima. It’s also the title of a book by Charles Pellegrino that is the subject of both of my pieces, and which I quote extensively at AT. Pellegrino’s book is a moving and grueling close-up look at the horrors experienced by the people of Hiroshima and Nagasaki both on the day of the bombing and in the days and years afterward. I have the heart of a dried-up raisin but even I got a little teary in places. [Hiroshima]
• Obama calls for end to nuclear weapons, but U.S. disarmament is slowest since 1980
  By Philip Bump May 27 at 10:17 AM The gutted Hiroshima Prefectural Industrial Promotion Hall, currently known as Atomic Bomb Dome or A-Bomb Dome, is seen after the atomic bombing of Hiroshima, Japan, on August 6, 1945. (REUTERS/U.S. Army/Hiroshima Peace Memorial Museum) Speaking from Hiroshima, the site of the first war-time atomic weapon detonation, President Obama on Friday called for the pursuit of "a world without nuclear weapons." Only a few days prior, his Department of Defense published new data revealing that the government Obama oversees -- a government which manages the second-largest nuclear stockpile in the world -- had dismantled fewer of its nuclear devices than in any year since at least 1980. Every year, the Department of Defense declassifies data on the size of the country's nuclear stockpile and the number of warheads dismantled. Its most recent data, released this week, shows that the U.S. stockpile numbered 4,571 at the end of 2015, about 15 percent of its size at its peak during the Cold War in 1967. The number of weapons dismantled was 109, the lowest figure since at least 1980. [Nuclear weapons]
• Correcting the Record on 38 North’s Analysis of North Korea’s Possible Fifth Nuclear Test
  By 38 North 24 May 2016 The recent article, “What’s behind North Korea’s attempts for dialogue?” by Cha Du-Hyeogn, published by NK News calls 38 North to task as “falling for Pyongyang’s trickery” and reporting on “omens” of an imminent fifth nuclear test. Normally, we wouldn’t respond to such comments, but 38 North takes a great deal of pride in its work to analyze satellite imagery. It is an extremely difficult task in a case like North Korea even for governments with much more advanced intelligence capabilities. So we feel we have to set the author of that article straight. [Test] [Media]
• Global nonproliferation not optimistic due to N. Korea: US think tank
  Prospects for progress in global nonproliferation efforts are not bright due to North Korea's continued pursuit of its nuclear program, the U.S. think tank Council on Foreign Relations said Tuesday. In a report on global cooperation, the CFR said that global nonproliferation efforts received a boost from the Iranian nuclear deal last year, but suffered a setback from the North's nuclear program. "North Korea continued to threaten the international nonproliferation regime and global peace and stability through its pursuit of nuclear weapons and delivery vehicles," the report said. The North is believed to have restarted its uranium enrichment and plutonium production at the Yongbyon complex in September 2015, and improved its uranium mining and milling capacity. However, the six-party nuclear talks remain dead since they stalled in 2008, the report said. Pyongyang also claimed it tested a submarine-launched ballistic missile in May 2015, the report said. "Past efforts to restrain North Korea's nuclear program have been unsuccessful, and if this renewed bellicosity goes unanswered, it could embolden the Democratic People's Republic of Korea to accelerate its nuclear weapons program," it said. "Thus, the Council on Foreign Relations was not optimistic about significant progress in combating nuclear proliferation in 2016." (Yonhap) [Non-proliferation]
• Obama in Hiroshima: A Case Study in Hypocrisy
  by Eric Draitser President Obama heads to Japan this week for an historic visit to Hiroshima, site of the world’s first use of a nuclear weapon, and one of the United States’ most enduring shameful acts. The corporate media has hailed the visit as an important step in strengthening bilateral relations between the US and Japan. Indeed, it certainly is that as the US seeks to reassert its hegemony in an Asia-Pacific region increasingly being seen as the sphere of influence of China. However, Obama’s arrival in Japan also highlights the deeply hypocritical and cynical attitudes of US policymakers, and President Obama himself, when it comes to the relevant issues. He is not expected to formally apologize for the needless slaughter of more than 200,000 Japanese citizens (mostly civilians), nor is he going to address the lingering policy-related effects of the war such as the highly unpopular US military occupation of Okinawa. In fact, it seems Obama is unlikely to touch on anything of substance. But there are indeed numerous subjects which merit close scrutiny. [Hiroshima] [Obama] [Hypocrisy]
• Prime Minister Suzuki and the atomic bomb – setting the record straight
  May 24, 2016 Adm. Vasey's recent essay, "President Truman and the atomic bomb – setting the record straight" (PacNet # 45, May 18, 2016) does indeed "set the record straight," from a US perspective. However, three additional elements of the story can, perhaps, be mentioned to flesh out and balance the record. First, Truman neither “ordered” nor “decided” to drop the atomic bombs in any direct or meaningful sense. Second, Truman and his advisors in Washington did not decide “to end the war and save lives.” Prime Minister Suzuki and his advisors in Tokyo made that decision. And, third, any discussion of the Japanese surrender must take into account the baneful effects of Roosevelt’s demand for an unconditional surrender in prolonging the war unnecessarily. [Hiroshima] [Emperor] [1945]
• Questions abound ahead of Obama’s visit to Hiroshima
  Posted on : May.24,2016 17:09 KST Victims and Korean organizations wondering if Obama will apologize or visit memorial stone for Koreans On May 18, I was sitting in a bar in Fukushima-cho - a Hiroshima neighborhood where many Japanese of Korean descent live - across from Kim Jin-ho, director of the Hiroshima Prefecture Association for Korean Atomic Bomb Survivors. “Don’t bother with pointless fantasies. Everything is based on political calculations!” Kim said before filling his glass with Asahi Super Dry beer and taking a big gulp. Kim is one of the first generation of atomic bomb survivors. He was in his mother’s womb when the atomic bomb fell on Hiroshima on Aug. 6, 1945. Kim’s parents lived in Kabe-cho, about 15km northeast of ground zero. After the bomb went off, they went downtown to find their two daughters, who lived close to ground zero. As a result, Kim’s parents, his two-year-old sister who was on his mother’s back and Kim himself were all exposed to radiation. Including the two sisters who lived downtown, four of the nine children in the family are atomic bomb survivors Kim has been involved with the Hiroshima chapter of the General Association of Korean Residents (Chongryon) for his entire life, and he takes a cynical view of US President Barack Obama‘s upcoming visit to Hiroshima on May 27. “Seven years have passed since Obama made that speech in Prague, but he has failed to make any significant progress toward denuclearization,” Kim said. [Obama] [Denuclearization]
• Obama calls N. Korea 'biggest challenge' to nuclear-free world
  U.S. President Barack Obama said North Korea poses the "biggest challenge" to efforts to realize a world without nuclear weapons. Obama made the remark in an interview with Japan's NHK television, saying one of the purposes of his planned visit to the Japanese city of Hiroshima is to demonstrate his commitment to a nuclear-free world. "I think the biggest challenge we have right now with respect to nuclear weapons is the dangers of the nuclear program in Pyongyang, in North Korea. And there has been, I think, a continued effort on their part not only to develop nuclear weapons, but also deliver them in ways that are reckless and provocative," Obama said. [Obama] [Nuclear weapons] [Chutzpah]
• Declassified U.S. cables reveal lead-up to Hiroshima A-bomb decision
  by Eric Johnston Staff Writer • May 24, 2016 • Osaka – On Aug. 6, 1945, Maj. Gen. Leslie Groves sent a top secret cable to his superiors in Washington, D.C. In the now declassified cable, Groves, who was in charge of the atomic bombing of Hiroshima, described what had happened. “First there was a ball of fire, changing in a few seconds to purple clouds and flames boiling and swirling upward,” he wrote. “Entire city except outmost ends of dock areas was covered with a dark grey dust layer which joined the cloud column.” [Hiroshima] [Soviet Union] [1945]
• Obama’s Hiroshima Visit Is a Reminder that Atomic Bombs Weren’t What Won the War
  05/24/2016 01:24 pm ET | Updated 41 minutes ago • Gar Alperovitz Author, Political Economist, Historian SAUL LOEB via Getty Images U.S. President Barack Obama’s forthcoming visit to Hiroshima offers an opportunity to reconsider some of the myths surrounding the historic decision to use the atomic bomb. Such reconsideration also helps focus attention on how we can avoid any future use of weapons that are now thousands of times more powerful than the ones used in 1945. A good place to start is with an unusual and little-noticed display at The National Museum of the United States Navy in Washington. A plaque explaining an exhibit devoted to the atomic bombings declares: “The vast destruction wreaked by the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the loss of 135,000 people made little impact on the Japanese military. However, the Soviet invasion of Manchuria on 9 August — fulfilling a promise made at the Yalta Conference in February — changed their minds.” [Hiroshima] [Soviet Union] [1945]
• President Truman and the atomic bomb – setting the record straight
  May 18, 2016 The White House has reported that President Barack Obama will visit Hiroshima later this month, one of the two Japanese cities devastated in World War II by atomic bombs. The White House has definitively stated that no apology will be given during the visit and the Abe administration has stated that none is expected or desired. Nonetheless, the very fact of a visit to either city will be viewed by many in Japan and elsewhere as an "implicit apology" for the US nuclear attacks in 1945. Those who believe that some type of apology is in order need to put themselves in President Truman’s shoes and discuss the action in its historical context. The president of the United States carries awesome responsibilities both in peace and war, and no world leader, before or since, has been confronted with such a momentous and fateful decision as that facing Harry Truman in early August 1945, when he ordered the atomic bomb be dropped on Hiroshima. Only recently succeeded to the presidency after the death of President Roosevelt in April 1945, and beset by a multitude of problems of enormous significance related not only to the war in progress but also for the postwar world, Truman leaned heavily on the counsel of his senior and most trusted advisors on the question of the using the “bomb.” The development of the atomic weapon had been one of the best kept secrets of World War II and only a handful of the top civilian and military officials in Washington knew about it. After Roosevelt’s death, Secretary of War Henry Stimson briefed the new president on the status of the program and predicted that “within four months, we shall in all probability have completed the most terrible weapon ever known in human history.” On Stimson’s recommendation, Truman appointed a special committee to advise him on the whole field of atomic energy in its political, military, and scientific aspects, and to assist him in deciding whether to use the bomb against Japan. The following distinguished Americans were committee members, and during their extensive deliberations they called for advice and information from several scientists who had helped developed the bomb: [Hiroshima] [Nuclear weapons] Truman] [Apologetics]
• North Korea, Following China and India, Pledges No-First-Use of Nuclear Weapons–So Could Obama
  by John Laforge North Korea’s May 7 declaration that it would not be first to use nuclear weapons was met with official derision instead of relief and applause. Not one report of the announcement I could find noted that the United States has never made such a no-first-use pledge. None of three dozen news accounts even mentioned that North Korea hasn’t got one usable nuclear warhead. The New York Times did admit, “US and South Korean officials doubted that North Korea has developed a reliable intercontinental ballistic missile that would deliver a nuclear payload to the continental United States.” Nuclear “first use” means either a nuclear sneak attack or the escalation from conventional mass destruction to the use of nuclear warheads, and presidents have threatened it as many as 15 times. In the build-up to the 1991 Persian Gulf bombing, US officials including then Def. Sec. Dick Cheney and Sec. of State James Baker publicly and repeatedly hinted that the US might use nuclear weapons. In the midst of the bombardment, Rep. Dan Burton, R-Ind., and syndicated columnist Cal Thomas both explicitly promoted nuclear war on Iraq. [Nuclear weapons] [No first use]
• If Obama Visits Hiroshima
  Richard Falk May 15, 2016 Volume 14 | Issue 10 | Number 1 There are mounting hopes that Barack Obama will use the occasion of the Group of 7 meeting in Japan in May to visit Hiroshima, and become the first American president to do so. It is remarkable that it required a wait of over 60 years until John Kerry became the first high American official to make such a visit, which he termed 'gut-wrenching,' while at the same time purposely refraining from offering any kind of apology to the Japanese people for one of the worse acts of state terror against a defenseless population in all of human history. Let's hope that Obama goes, and displays more remorse than Kerry who at least deserves some credit for paving the way. The contrast between the many pilgrimages of homage by Western leaders, including those of Germany, to Auschwitz and other notorious death camps, and the absence of comparable pilgrimages to Hiroshima and Nagasaki underscores the difference between winning and losing a major war. This contrast cannot be properly accounted for by insisting on a hierarchy of evils that the Holocaust dominates. [Hiroshima] [Nuclear weapons]
• Camouflage Netting Spotted on North Korea’s Ballistic Missile Submarine
  By 38 North 17 May 2016 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. Recent commercial satellite imagery from May 8 of the Sinpo South Shipyard supports previous reports that North Korea is continuing to actively pursue development of both a ballistic missile submarine and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM). Camouflage netting, intended to conceal ongoing activity and first seen in January 2016, is again present on the deck of the submarine. The submersible test stand barge has been moved from its position along the northern secondary dock back to the main dock and a support vessel is now tied up alongside. A large shipping container is positioned dockside. Whether this was a shipping container for the Bukkeukseong-1 SLBM is unclear. [SLBM]
• N.Korea deploying ICBMs near Chinese border
  By Jun Ji-hye North Korea appears to have been deploying road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) at military bases near its border with China, according to media reports Friday, in a move to show off its nuclear capability against the United States. After tracking the development of the missiles, known as the KN-08, for the past two years, South Korean and U.S. intelligence officials have found that Pyongyang is in the process of deploying missiles at three or four border bases, the Chosun Ilbo reported. The KN-08 is believed to have a range of more than 10,000 kilometers, far enough to strike targets on the U.S. mainland. The North has been constructing ICBMs bases near its border with China with the apparent aim of avoiding having its KN-08s destroyed by allies' precision bombing in the event of a contingency, the report added. [ICBM] [KN-08]
• N.Korea Deploys Missiles Along Chinese Border
  North Korea is in the process of deploying mobile ballistic missiles with a maximum range of 12,000 km at three or four frontline bases along its border with China, it emerged Thursday. U.S. intelligence officials have said a couple of times since last year that the North has taken steps toward the deployment of the KN-08 ballistic missiles without test flights. The North previously deployed the Musudan mid-range missiles warfare-ready without test flights. They have a range of 3,000 to 4,000 km. But three test launches of the Musudan last month all failed, raising skepticism over the potency of the KN-08 missiles being deployed now. North Korea has merely conducted several engine combustion tests for the KN-08 at its test site in Tongchang-ri, North Pyongan Province. [Missile] [Media] [Inversion][Heading]
• North Korea’s Fifth Nuclear Test Coming Soon?
  Konstantin Asmolov Following the North Korea’s fourth nuclear test, the virtual dust had hardly settled, before South Korean experts began to talk about the eminence of the fifth. Yet, the few dates, which South Korea had set for the North Korean nuclear fireworks, have already passed. On April 7, 2016 the South Korean Defense Minister, Han Ming-goo announced that on 15 March, Kim Jong-un gave the order to prepare for another nuclear test. As explained by the head of the Defense Ministry of the Republic of Korea, the results of inspections made with South Korean and US intelligence equipment of the North Korean nuclear test site near the village of Punggye-ri in KiljuCounty in North Hamgyeong Province show that they are ready to test, they are only waiting for the order of the government. Tests can be carried out both underground and above-ground. On April 17, the Yonhap news agency reported a sharp increase in the movement of people and equipment at the Punggye-ri site and inferred from this that the trial will take place before the beginning of May. [Test]
• Update on Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: No Indications that a Nuclear Test is Imminent
  By 38 North 10 May 2016 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr. Despite predictions by the South Korean government that a nuclear test appeared imminent to coincide with the DPRK’s 7th Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea, that gathering is now ended and there are no apparent signs that a detonation will occur in the near future. Recent commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site from May 8 shows low levels of activity at the test site, but vehicles previously observed at what is believed to be the Command Center in imagery from May 5 are no longer present. This level of activity throughout the facility suggests that it remains capable of supporting additional tests once a decision to move forward is made in Pyongyang.
• New Possible Indication of North Korean Nuclear Test Preparations
  By 38 North 06 May 2016 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. Commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site from May 5 suggests that Pyongyang may be preparing for a nuclear test in the near future. While the test site continues to show low levels of activity, vehicles have been spotted at what is believed to be the Command Center, located approximately 6 kilometers south of the test site. While the historical record is incomplete, it appears that vehicles are not often seen there except during preparations for a test. North Portal There is a low level of activity with one truck or several small vehicles parked close together (measuring approximately 4.1 m by 2.2 m) 20 meters west of the portal and what appears to be several people immediately outside the portal. The crates or trailers seen in this area in previous imagery are no longer present.
• Is There Hope for Relaunching Six Party Talks?
  Konstantin Asmolov
  The nuclear escalation on the Korean Peninsula prompted the People’s Republic of China to amplify its efforts to reboot the Six Party Talks. Chinese Foreign Ministry’s Spokesperson Hong Lei pointed out that UNSC resolution cannot resolve the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula and urged the parties to come back to the negotiation table. To revitalize the process and resolve the crisis on the Peninsula once and forever, China proposed to simultaneously pursue two goals of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and achievement of truce between the two Koreas. This proposal was first uttered on April 7, 2016, in Tokyo, during the meeting of Wu Dawei, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister and special representative for Korean Peninsula Affairs, and the leadership of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party of Japan. Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida reacted to the proposal to relaunch the Six Party Talks by saying that it could happen only if Pyongyang proved its commitment to abandoning its nuclear program. Fumio Kishida’s response compelled his Chinese vis-a-vis to agree that despite the fact that it was desirable to continue negotiations, but their immediate resumption was hardly possible. [Six Party Talks]
• S. Korea's nuclear armament would make US safer: expert
  The United States and South Korea should seriously consider having Seoul develop nuclear weapons and jointly manage the arsenal if the security situation on the Korean Peninsula continues to worsen, a senior South Korean expert claimed Tuesday. Cheong Seong-chang, senior research fellow at the state-run South Korean think tank Sejong Institute, made the case during a seminar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, calling for immediate negotiations to resolve North Korean nuclear and missile threats. "Unless these negotiations take place and if North Korea's nuclear and missile capabilities become further sophisticated, calls in South Korea for nuclear armament cannot help but rise," Cheong said, adding that polls already show a majority of South Koreans are in support of nuclear armament. [Nuclearisation]
• Update on North Korea’s Nuclear Test Site
  By 38 North 04 May 2016 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu and Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr. New commercial satellite imagery continues to show a very low level of activity at North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site. Whether the level of activity indicates that Pyongyang has made all necessary preparations to conduct a nuclear test on short notice at this site or is associated with normal maintenance work remains unclear.
• North Korea’s Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile: Continued Progress at the Sinpo South Shipyard
  By 38 North 03 May 2016 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. Summary North Korea’s recent successful test launch of another Bukkeukseong-1 (Polaris-1, KN-11) submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) has reinforced ongoing concerns regarding the continuing development of the missile system and the GORAE-class experimental ballistic missile submarine. [SLBM]
• N.Korea's Submarine-Launched Missile 'Blew Up'
  A missile rises from the sea in this picture from the Rodong Sinmun daily on April 24. A missile rises from the sea in this picture from the Rodong Sinmun daily on April 24. A ballistic missile whose launch from a submarine on April 23 North Korea described as an "enormous success" in fact blew up in mid-air, a military officer here said Sunday. The missile flew about 30 km but exploded and split into several pieces, he said. The official [North] Korea's Central News Agency said the following day the launch was aimed at increasing the reliability of separation and accuracy of the warhead's detonation device. [SLBM]
• 'North Korea officials lied to Kim Jong-un about SLBM test'
  By Yi Whan-woo Updated : 2016-05-01 20:49 Officials and scientists in North Korea may have lied to the nation's leader Kim Jong-un that the country successfully test-fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) last week after a trial failed, according to South Korean military sources, Sunday. Citing their analysis, the sources said the missile exploded in midair after it was launched from a 2,000-ton Sinpo-class submarine in the East Sea and traveled 30 kilometers. After the test-firing, the Rodong Sinmun, the official newspaper of Pyongyang's Workers' Party, reported that the SLBM successfully separated its fairings and "proved an accurate operation of its nuclear detonator." "It instead broke into two or three pieces after the explosion, which means the test failed," a source said on condition of anonymity. [SLBM]
• Update on North Korea’s Nuclear Test Site
  By 38 North 30 April 2016 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu and Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr. Recent commercial satellite imagery from April 28 shows signs of continued low-level activity at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site. Based on available evidence, it is not possible to determine whether these activities are related to continued maintenance or reflect that Pyongyang has completed test preparations and a detonation is imminent. It is worth noting that the January 2016 nuclear test demonstrated that North Korea has the ability to slow-roll test preparations relatively unnoticed and is able to conduct a new test with little or no warning. Imagery indicates that there are two possible vehicles or trailers as well as a few mining carts visible at the North Portal. The spoil piles at both the North and West Portals appear to have undergone some recent activity but it is not possible using current imagery to determine whether this is maintenance on the mine rail system or the depositing of small amounts of fresh spoil. No personnel are observed at either location.

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APRIL 2016

• North Korea fails again to launch Musudan missile
  Posted on : Apr.29,2016 13:23 KST Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) at a military parade For now North Korea’s longest-range missile taps out at 1,300 km, with only Korea and Japan in range North Korea attempted to launch what appeared to be a Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) that crashed immediately on the morning of Apr. 28, the South Korean Ministry of National Defense said. “At around 6:40 am today [Apr. 28], a projectile believed to be a Musudan was launched in the area of Wonsan, North Hamgyong Province, but it is believed to have failed,” a senior South Korean military officer said. “The projectile appears to have crashed seconds after launch,” he added. North Korea attempted its first test launch of the Musudan - also unsuccessful - on Apr. 15. With a range of 3,000 to 4,000 km, the Musudan could pose a threat to US military bases on Guam. The South Korean military previously believed the missile to have been in position since 2007 without any test launches. But with the latest suspected launch failure coming on the heels of the unsuccessful attempt on Apr. 15, a reappraisal of its combat capabilities now appears inevitable. Both the Musudan and the KN-08 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) are believed to have incorporated old Soviet Union R-27 (SS-N-6) technology, which is completely different from the kind used in the North’s existing Scud and Nodong missiles. If the Musudan is confirmed to lack combat capabilities, that would mean the Nodong - with a maximum range estimated at 1,300 km - remains the farthest-reaching of the missiles North Korea currently has in place. In that case, its actual missile strike capabilities would only extend as far as the Korean Peninsula and Japan. “In the case of the Naro [South Korea’s first satellite launch vehicle], it took several months to make corrections and conduct another launch after the initial failure,” a military officer said. “It looks like they were rushing to make up for the previous failure after [North Korean leader] Kim Jong-un’s orders on Mar. 15 to ‘launch a variety of different ballistic rockets,’ and they ended up failing again,” the officer added. By Park Byong-su, senior staff writer [Missile]
• 2 More N.Korean Missiles Fizzle
  North Korea fired a couple of medium-range ballistic missiles on Thursday, but the first crashed into the sea and the second also failed, according to military officials here. The Musudan missile is theoretically capable of hitting U.S. military bases on Guam in the West Pacific but does not seem to be working very well. Another Musudan missile launch on April 15 also failed, killing and injuring several personnel. The North fired the first missile from Wonsan around 6:40 a.m. and the second in the evening. The first missile did not show up on South Korean military radar but was spotted by a U.S. surveillance satellite. The North recently deployed two mobile missile launch vehicles near Wonsan, each with a Musudan missile. The Musudan is an upgraded version of the old Soviet SS-N-6 submarine-launched ballistic missile. It is 12 m long and thought to be able to carry a 650 kg warhead. The North has had about 40 of them warfare-ready since 2007 but seems not to have tested them until recently. The North is gearing up for a massive Workers Party congress on May 6, the first in 36 years, and the regime is frantically trying to project an image of power as international sanctions begin to bite. But South Korea and the U.S. are now expected to reassess the practical threat the Musudan poses given its tendency to blow up. The government here still believes that another nuclear test is imminent. [Missile]
• North Korea’s recent rocket was same type as Dec. 2012 launch
  Posted on : Apr.28,2016 16:26 KST Recovered debris suggests rocket was a test of ballistic missile technology, not meant to put satellite in orbit It was confirmed that the long-range rocket that North Korea fired on Feb. 7 was essentially the same type of rocket as the Eunha-3 fired in Dec. 2012. “The long-range missile that was fired recently and the long-range missile that was fired in 2012 were found to be identical in all comparable respects, including the first-stage engine nozzle, the length and diameter of the middle stage and the acceleration motor that we recovered,” a military expert who is familiar with the analysis of the debris of the long-range rockets told reporters on Apr. 27. “The two appear to be nearly the same kind of rocket.” “When we peeled off the paint on the fuel tank that we recovered, we found the number ‘3.’ This suggests that it is very likely that the missile fuselage was painted over where it originally said ‘Eunha-3,’” the expert said. “We confirmed that anti-corrosive fluoride components were added to the oxidizer, something that we did not find in the 2012 debris,” the expert added. Before North Korea launched the missile this past February, it raised the gantry at the launchpad from 50m to 67m, raising expectations that it would fire a bigger missile. North Korea also referred to this rocket not as “Eunha-3” but as “Gwangmyeongseong,” creating the impression that it was a different kind of rocket. The actual trajectory of the rocket launched in February was similar to that of the Eunha-3 in 2012, leading some to suggest that it was likely the same kind of rocket. But this is the first confirmation that the two rockets are of the same type. This indicates that North Korea has made no major improvements in its missile technology over the past three years. [Satellite]
• Former US official differs with ruling party floor leader’s quest for nukes
  Posted on : Apr.28,2016 16:34 KST Nonproliferation expert is opposed to South Korea’s nuclear armament The Saenuri Party’s floor leader is facing a backlash after advocating South Korea’s nuclear armament in an Apr. 27 meeting with a former US official. The comments by floor leader Won Yoo-cheol, who has made similar statements in the past, were the result of a single-minded focus on the North Korea threat while ignoring the fact that Washington’s basic East Asia policy position is opposed to nuclear proliferation. The official in question was also a specialist in nonproliferation and arms reduction. Won delivered his remarks while meeting at the National Assembly with former US State Department Special Advisor for Nonproliferation and Arms Control Robert Einhorn. “I think it’s good for the Korean Peninsula to maintain denuclearization,” Woo said. “But the people of South Korea are feeling very nervous with North Korea breaking its pledge to the international community and making advancements in its nuclear weapons, and with a fifth nuclear test looking imminent,” he continued. “I have said in the past that South Korea should have peaceful nuclear capabilities to counter North Korea’s terror and destructive nuclear capabilities,” he added. [Nuclearisation] [US dominance]
• N. Korea fails in its attempt to launch missile: military
  North Korea fired off what appeared to be an intermediate-range ballistic early Thursday, but the launch seems to have failed, military officials said. The missile may be the same Musudan model that North Korea tried to launch on April 15, according to sources. That missile launched in the North's first Musudan test exploded a few seconds after lifting off from North Korea's east coast. The military said Thursday's launch also seems to have crashed several seconds after launch. "The projectile, presumed to be a Musudan, was fired around 6:40 a.m. from the vicinity of Wonsan, but it appears to have plunged to the earth a few seconds later," an official said. "It is highly likely that the launch failed. With that in mind, South Korea and the United States are conducting a detailed assessment," he said. (Yonhap) [IRBM]
• Sohae Satellite Launching Station: Activity at the Vertical Engine Test Stand
  By 38 North 26 April 2016 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu and Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr. Recent commercial satellite imagery of the Sohae Satellite Launching Station shows continued low-level activity that does not suggest imminent preparations for either the launch of a space launch vehicle (SLV) or engine test. [SLV]
• US Pivot to Asia Poised to Enter Nuclear Phase
  I’m expecting tactical nuclear weapons to reappear overtly in the US military equation for Asia… …but only after the US Navy gets its chance to feast at the pivot trough for its long-for but perhaps strategically less-than-vital conventional forces buildout in Asia. I have an article up exclusively on Asia Times, The Case of the Missing Nukes…and a Disappearing US Mission in Asia, concerning an interesting and, I fear, transitory lack of tactical nuclear weapons in theater in Asia. US land based tactical nukes for the army and air force were pulled out of Asia at the end of the Cold War and it would require major political and diplomatic handwringing to put them back. The US Navy got out of the tactical nuke business for surface vessels worldwide at the same time. The Pentagon then stripped the Navy of its submarine tactical nuke, the nuclear-tipped Tomahawk cruise missile, the TLAM-N, formally and irrevocably retiring it in 2013 over the objections of Japan and a certain, Tomahawk-lovin’ segment of the US defense industry. The US rejection of tactical nuclear weapons in Asia, however, is a matter of situational analysis, not principle or service scruples. The US maintains a reported stash of 200 air-delivered tactical nuclear weapons with its NATO allies in Europe because otherwise NATO would consider itself at a fatal disadvantage against the larger Russian forces, which also have tactical nuclear weapons. [Tactical nuclear weapons] [China confrontation]
• North Korea could attempt additional SLBM launches
  Posted on : Apr.26,2016 15:52 KST Recent launch only flew for an estimated 30km, which indicates a possible technical flaw Photos from North Korea‘s state media of the submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) in the East Sea on Apr. 23. They claimed the launch was successful. North Korea’s submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) showed some technical advancements in its Apr. 23 launch. But the South Korea military said on Apr. 25 that with the test failing to confirm the desired performance, Pyongyang could attempt an additional launch in the near future for additional verification. Following the launch, North Korea said that all of the technical indicators amply satisfied the demands. In particular, it claimed the test was intended to examine four areas: a cold launch from a maximum depth (a method in which the ballistic missile is ignited and launched after being sent above the water’s surface by the submarine), solid fuel engine flight, stage separation, and the functioning of two nuclear warhead detonation devices. But military experts had a different take. Many did agree the launch was largely a success in terms of two of the four aspects, namely the cold launch and solid fuel engine flight. [SLBM]
• Does North Korea’s submarine-launched ballistic missile signal another nuke test?
  Posted on : Apr.25,2016 16:31 KST North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is cheered after observing the launch of a ballistic missile from a submarine in the East Sea, Apr. 23. The Apr. 24 edition of the Rodong Sinmun newspaper featured coverage of the launch on pages 1-2 and 26 color photos. (KCNA/Yonhap News) Pyongyang carrying out launches ahead of next month’s Party Congress, but may not have much reason to test nuclear weapon At 6:30 pm on Apr. 23, North Korea fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) in the East Sea, northeast of Sinpo in North Hamgyong Province. South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said that the missile only traveled 30km, far short of the minimum 300km range of an SLBM, while the US Strategic Command said the missile posed no threat to the continental US. In contrast, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un claimed during “field guidance” on Apr. 24 that the missile launch was a “great success.” The governments of the US and South Korea are taking steps to deliberate with the international community about responding to the launch, claiming that it was a violation of UN Security Council resolutions. Military tensions on the Korean Peninsula are rising rapidly ahead of the 7th Congress of the Korean Workers’ Party, which is scheduled to take place in North Korea on May 7. Some experts still expect that North Korea will push ahead with a fifth nuclear weapons test around the time of the congress [Test] [SLBM] [KWP]
• [Reporter’s notebook] Can we believe North Korea’s missile claims?
  Posted on : Apr.25,2016 16:34 KST The state of the North‘s missile programs, and their intended audience, are still not well known Photos from North Korea‘s state media of the submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) in the East Sea on Apr. 23. They claimed the launch was successful. I recently found myself chuckling over North Korea’s response to the joint Key Resolve/Foal Eagle exercises by South Korea and the US. Not long after they carried out their large-scale Ssang Yong (“double dragon”) amphibious assault drills, North Korea carried out its own large-scale amphibious assault and anti-amphibious assault defense exercises. The South’s precision strike exercises with its F-15K and F-16 aircraft were met by long-range artillery unit strike exercises and a KN-06 surface-to-air missile launch by the North. It makes sense to want to devise some response to the other side’s military activities, but the seemingly improvised “tit for tat” just seemed childish. There has been a lot of argument lately over the factors behind North Korea’s recent missile launches. Some have called them a show of force aimed at drawing concessions from the South and US, while others say they are meant to rally the North Korean public ahead of the upcoming Workers’ Party congress, to be held in May. But as I watched North Korea‘s behavior during the Key Resolve/Foal Eagle exercises, I had the funny feeling it may have been influenced by a 2012 RAND Corporation report by Markus Schiller. In a report titled “Characterizing the North Korean Nuclear Missile Threat,” Schiller raised questions over the North’s missile capabilities, arguing that its missiles were less an actual means of military action than something to show off to improve Pyongyang’s diplomatic bargaining position and achieve practical gains. [SLBM] [Military balance]
• N.Korea Launches Missile from Submarine
  A missile is launched from a submarine in this picture published from the Rodong Sinmun daily on Saturday. A missile is launched from a submarine in this picture published from the Rodong Sinmun daily on Saturday. North Korea launched a ballistic missile from a 2,000-ton submarine in the East Sea on Saturday evening. North Korean state media hailed the launch under the watchful eyes of leader Kim Jong-un as a "great success" and featured a succession of photos showing the missile emerging from the water. Submarine-launched ballistic missiles are tougher to detect than missiles fired from land bases. South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said the missile was launched in the East Sea at around 6:30 p.m. and flew around 30 km. The distance it flew, officials here say, was far short of the minimum range of 300 km required, but progress in developing the rocket has been unusually fast. [SLBM]
• 'N.Korea makes progress in SLBM tech'
  North Korean leader Kim Jong-un watches the test-firing of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) in this image released by Rodong Sinmun, the official newspaper of the North's Workers' Party, Sunday. / Yonhap By Jun Ji-hye North Korea is believed to have made progress in acquiring some technologies necessary for the development of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), South Korea's Ministry of National Defense and military experts said Sunday, following the North's latest test-fire one day earlier. The ministry said that the North would be able to operationally deploy the SLBMs in three or four years, adding that should the Kim Jong-un regime make a concentrated effort on the development, the new weapon may enter service earlier than estimated. [SLBM]
• A New Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile for North Korea
  By John Schilling 25 April 2016 Summary North Korea has revealed images of a submarine-launched ballistic missile test indicating that it has abandoned the liquid-fuel design that has consistently failed in the past and switched to a more robust solid-propellant system that will have a better chance of actually working in an operational environment. The new design is still in the earliest stages of testing, and much work, including development of a full-scale motor, needs to be done. Nevertheless, the simpler design is likely to be less troublesome to develop and could be ready by 2020. The solid-propellant missile would have reduced performance, with a range of 900 km compared to 1600 km for a liquid-propellant version, but is still likely to meet North Korean requirement to pose a challenging threat to US allied defenses, primarily in Northeast Asia. [SLBM]
• DPRK announces successful test of new ballistic missile
  Xinhua, April 24, 2016 The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) announced it has conducted a successful underwater test-fire of strategic submarine ballistic missile and the top leader Kim Jong Un guided the test-fire, the official KCNA news agency reported Sunday. The test-fire aimed to "confirm the stability of the underwater ballistic launching system in the maximum depth of waters, flying kinetic feature under the vertical flight system of the ballistic missile powered by the newly developed high-power solid fuel engine, the reliability of the phased heat separation and the working accuracy of nuclear detonating device of the warhead." The state media said the test-fire proved "an eye-opening success" and that Kim was satisfied with the result. The DPRK-style submarine-launched ballistic missile technology met all technical requirements for carrying out an underwater attack operation, it said. Kim said that the submarine-launched ballistic missiles strengthen the underwater operation capability of the navy and that the military is now capable of attacking South Korean forces and the United States any time. He also urged scientists and technicians to step up the nuclear program in order to launch nuclear attacks on the United States and South Korean authorities "any time when the party (Workers' Party of Korea) is determined to do so." [SLBM] [Solid fuel] [Chinese IR]
• 'North achieves progress in SLBM development'
  By Jun Ji-hye North Korea is believed to have made "considerable" progress in the development of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), military experts said Sunday, following its latest test-fire one day earlier. They are predicting the North would be able to operationally deploy the SLBMs in two or three years, emerging as a significant new threat to South Korea, Japan and potentially the United States. According to the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), the North launched what appeared to be a ballistic missile from a 2,000-ton Sinpo-class submarine in the East Sea at 6:30 p.m. Saturday. The JCS downplayed the test, saying that the SLBM test appeared to have failed as the missile flew only about 30 kilometers, well short of the minimum SLBM range of 300 kilometers. However, on Sunday, the North said it successfully launched an SLBM, claiming that the missile was launched from its maximum underwater depth, and that its "cold launch" ejection mechanism and high-performance engine using solid fuel worked without a hitch, along with its flight controls and warhead release systems, according to the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). A cold launch is a complicated technology involving hurtling a missile out of the water to put it on trajectory for a designated target, necessary for SLBM development. The ruling Workers' Party's official newspaper, the Rodong Sinmun, also released a number of photos, including one showing the missile bursting out of the water. Experts also say the latest test-fire should not be characterized as a failure simply because its range fell short. Kim Dong-yup, professor at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES), a research arm of Kyungnam University, said the North test-fired the SLBM in an area adjacent to land, which apparently means the purpose of the test was not to prove its range. [SLBM]
• N. Korea apparently fired ballistic missile from submarine: S. Korean military
  North Korea launched what appeared to be a ballistic missile from a submarine in the East Sea Saturday, the South Korean military said. The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said North Korea fired a projectile that it believes was a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) around 6:30 p.m. The JCS said it is keeping close tabs on the North Korean military while maintaining its readiness posture. [SLBM]
• Will N. Korea conduct 5th nuke test this weekend?
  By Park Si-soo The R.O.K Army and the U.S. Army are on emergency standby Saturday as North Korea is expected to carry out its fifth nuclear test in the days to come. They don't rule out the possibility that the provocation could happen this weekend -- as early as Saturday. [Test]
• China to have over 200 orbiters by 2020
  By Chen Boyuan China.org.cn, April 21, 2016 Photo taken on Jan. 16, 2016 shows the Long March-3B carrier rocket is launched with a Belarusian telecom satellite in Xichang of southwest China's Sichuan Province. [Photo/Xinhua] China has more than 130 Chinese space vehicles cruising in orbit, and that figure will exceed 200 by 2020, according to China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC), which parents the China Academy of Space Technology (CAST), the country's principal developer of orbiters, including the Dong Fang Hong I. China will soon observe its first National Space Day this Sunday, April 24, 2016, the 46th anniversary of the launch of its first man-made satellite, Dong Fang Hong 1 (East Red 1), in 1970. [Satellite] [Double standards]
• Obama Embraces the Bomb
  04/18/2016 12:07 pm ET • Michael Brenner Senior Fellow, the Center for Transatlantic Relations; Professor of International Affairs, University of Pittsburgh Pete Turner via Getty Images President Obama hosted an international conference a couple of weeks ago on measures to tighten controls on the spread of nuclear weapons and possible theft of nuclear materials by terrorist groups. This harks back to an early theme of his Presidency whereby he set the goal of a sharp reduction of the world’s inventories of these weapons. Yet, a few months back Obama announced a $1 trillion program to upgrade the American nuclear arsenal. What’s going on ? This vast expenditure for no apparent strategic purpose has generated little debate whether within the Obama administration, political circles or the public. This fits a by now recognizable pattern: critical decisions are taken on matters heavy with consequence without explanation of why that course of action is chosen and it then goes unremarked by the politicos and media. That double failing is making a mockery of our supposedly democratic governance. Furthermore, it allows to slip under the radar costly — potentially dangerous — initiatives that cannot hold up under scrutiny. We have 70 years of history with nuclear weapons. The accumulated experience includes decades of Cold War dealings with the Soviet Union, nuclear arms spread to nine other countries, the refinement of our thinking about all aspects of their strategic role, and rigorous exercises on the logic of deterrence, of coercion, and compulsion. No subject has been received as concentrated critical examination. [Tactical nuclear weapons] [Rhetoric] [Obama]
• North Korea’s Nuclear Test Site: Limited Activity Continues; Tunnel Excavation Resumes
  By 38 North 20 April 2016 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu. Summary New commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Punggye-ri nuclear test site from April 19 shows limited vehicle and equipment activity at the North Portal and Main Support Area as well as indications of resumed excavation operations at the West Portal. These activities by themselves do not establish that test preparations are imminent. However, the possibility of an impending test cannot be ruled out. Pyongyang has clearly demonstrated, with its fourth nuclear detonation this past January, the ability to conduct detonations on short notice while masking indicators of its preparations from satellite view.
• Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: Limited Activity Continues
  By 38 North 18 April 2016 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr. ROK President Park Geun-hye and the Ministry of National Defense have strongly suggested that North Korea will soon conduct a fifth nuclear test, based on what has been reported as a significant up-tic in activity at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in the run-up to the Party Congress in May. Recent commercial satellite imagery shows very limited activity at the site and key areas are clear of snow and being maintained. While there is little evidence of that a test is imminent, the possibility cannot be ruled out since the North has demonstrated the ability to conduct detonations on short notice by slow rolling preparations, masking significant indicators from satellite view. Imagery from April 14 shows limited activity at the North Portal, the location of all of North Korea’s previous tests except the 2006 detonation. One small object (approximately 1.5 m wide x 2.5 m long), which is likely a trailer or small passenger vehicle, is present outside the tunnel entrance, whereas there were two similar sized objects present three days earlier.
• More Evidence of Possible Reprocessing Campaign at Yongbyon; Progress at Experimental Light Water Reactor
  By 38 North 15 April 2016 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr. Summary Recent commercial satellite imagery shows new developments at the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center indicating that North Korea has already begun or plans to commence a reprocessing campaign to separate additional plutonium for nuclear weapons. This activity consists of the presence of a loaded railroad flatcar at the Radiochemical Laboratory, excavation alongside the old “Building 500” used to store waste from earlier reprocessing campaigns and excavation work at the Experimental Light Water Reactor’s (ELWR) cooling water cistern. Such a conclusion is consistent with a February 2016 statement by US Director of National Intelligence, James Clapper that North Korea “…. could begin to recover plutonium from the reactor’s spent fuel within a matter of weeks to months.” Imagery also indicates that there is continuing and expanding work at the ELWR still under construction. However, it remains unclear when that facility will become operational. [Yongbyon] [LWR]
• DPRK's attempt to launch ballistic missile fails
  Xinhua, April 15, 2016 The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) on Friday attempted to launch what is believed to be Musudan mobile ballistic missile into its eastern waters early in the morning, but the attempt appeared to have failed, South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said. A JCS official told Xinhua on the phone that the DPRK tried to launch a missile from its eastern region at about 5:30 a.m. on Friday local time (2030 Thursday GMT) and the attempt was estimated to have failed. The official declined to explain why Seoul estimated the launch was a failure. Another South Korean military official was quoted by Yonhap news agency as saying that the estimate was based on the flight of an abnormal trajectory. The failed missile is believed to have been mobile Musudan missile, which is allegedly capable of striking parts of the U.S. territory such as Guam and the outer reaches of Alaska. South Korea's military had dispatched an Aegis-equipped destroyer to the East Sea to detect and track the possible launch of Musudan missile at or around the so-called Day of the Sun. [Mobile missile]
• Seoul bracing for possible North Korean missile launch
  Posted on : Apr.14,2016 16:14 KST A North Korean media report claiming to have acquired ICBM reentry technology (left) and an image of after a missile launch. (Yonhap News) CNN reported evidence of preparations for launch, which could go ahead around Apr. 15 The South Korean government is paying close attention to the possibility of an imminent North Korean mobile mid-range or intercontinental ballistic missile launch after CNN reported evidence of preparations. “Our understanding is that the report was not too far off,” said a senior Ministry of National Defense official on Apr. 13. “When a warhead atmospheric re-entry simulation was conducted on Mar. 15, [North Korean leader] Kim Jong-un said [North Korea] would attempt a test nuclear warhead explosion and launch of a ballistic rocket capable of carrying a nuclear warhead,” the official added. “It is possible it will conduct a launch along those lines, whether it’s a Musudan, a KN-08, or a KN-14.” [Missile test] [Mobile missile]
• A Fifth Nuclear Test at Punggye-ri?
  By 38 North 13 April 2016 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu. News reports suggest the possibility of an impending fifth nuclear or mobile ballistic missile test to celebrate the birthday of Kim Jong Un’s grandfather, Kim Il Sung, on April 15. Recent commercial satellite imagery shows little evidence that Pyongyang is planning a nuclear test in the next few days. Nevertheless, that possibility can not be entirely ruled out since the North may be able to conduct a nuclear test on short notice with few indications that it intends to do so. [Test]
• Should South Korea Get the Bomb?
  Posted on : Apr.6,2016 06:45 KST John Feffer In 2012, a year before he died, the distinguished political scientist Kenneth Waltz wrote an article in Foreign Affairs arguing that everyone should stop worrying about Iran getting a nuclear weapon. He didn’t think that Iran was likely to voluntarily abandon its efforts to acquire a nuke. Nor did he think that the country would be satisfied with a “break-out” capability – staying just outside the nuclear club by having sufficient material and expertise to build and test a weapon within a short space of time. Instead, Waltz thought it inevitable that Iran, like North Korea, would eventually go nuclear. Counter-intuitively, he believed that this “would probably be the best possible result: the one most likely to restore stability to the Middle East.” [Nuclearisation]
• N. Korea showing signs of mobile ballistic missile launch: CNN
  North Korea is showing signs of preparations to conduct its first launch of a mobile ballistic missile that could potentially reach part of the United States, CNN reported Tuesday, citing U.S. officials. U.S. intelligence satellites have picked up such indications, and the potential launch is most likely to involve the intermediate-range Musudan missile, feared to be capable of reaching Guam as well as Shemya Island in the outer reaches of Alaska's Aleutian chain, the report said. But the North could attempt to test the longer-range, road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile KN-08 or its advanced version, KN-14, which are believed to be capable of reaching the west coast of the continental U.S., the report said. Officials cautioned, however, that the North may not go ahead with a launch, adding that Pyongyang is well aware U.S. spy satellites keep constant watch on it, and such preparations could be part of the North's attempts to deceive the U.S., according to the report. The Pentagon declined comment. [Missile] [Mobile missile] [Deterrence]
• North Korea’s Large Rocket Engine Test: A Significant Step Forward for Pyongyang’s ICBM Program
  By John Schilling 11 April 2016 Summary North Korea’s April 9 test of a large liquid-fuel engine is a disturbing development that not only highlights the growing threat posed by Pyongyang but should also put to rest, once and for all, all claims that the North’s WMD programs are a hoax. In fact, the test demonstrated that North Korea has an even greater capability at a more advanced state of development than previously anticipated. Specifically, three important conclusions can be reached based on this test: 1.The North Korean test involved a tightly-coupled pair of propulsion units from an old Soviet submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), known as the R-27 or the SS-N-6 “Serb.” North Korea has long been believed to possess this technology, but it was never confirmed before now. This engine uses high-energy propellants that would give a missile greater range than Pyongyang’s traditional mix of kerosene and nitric acid. 2.Using this technology, North Korea’s road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the KN-08 or the KN-14 modification, could deliver a nuclear warhead to targets at a distance of 10,000 to 13,000 km. That range, greater than had previously been expected, could allow Pyongyang to reach targets on the US east coast, including New York or Washington, DC. 3.If the current ground test program continues and is successful, flight tests of a North Korean ICBM could begin in as little as a year. Moreover, Pyongyang may be able to deploy this delivery system in a limited operational capability by 2020. [ICBM] [Engine test]
• DPRK says it successfully tests long-range rocket engine
  The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has successfully tested a heavy-lift engine of a new-type intercontinental ballistic rocket, the official KCNA news agency reported Saturday. "Dear Comrade Kim Jong Un said now we can mount an ever more powerful nuclear warhead on a new intercontinental ballistic rocket and put the den of evil in the United States and all over the world within our strike range," KCNA said. The ground test was conducted at the Sohae Space Center, which is located at the DPRK's North Pyangan Province, the KCNA said, without specifying when the test was carried out. The test proved a great success and is of significance in strengthening the country's nuclear forces and defense capabilities, said KCNA, adding that the engine of the intercontinental ballistic rocket met all scientific and technological indexes. [ICBM] [Engine test]
• N. Korea claims successful missile engine test
  North Korea claimed it has successfully conducted a ground test of a new engine for an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). / Yonhap By Ko Dong-hwan North Korea claimed Saturday that it has successfully conducted a ground test of a new engine for an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the latest in a series of the rogue state's claims of progress for its nuclear and missile programs. Kim Jong-un, leader of North Korea, appeared to orchestrate the "jet test for a new type of high-powered engine for an ICBM and visited the Sohae Space Center to guide the test," Yonhap news agency reported citing the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). According to the KCNA, Kim said, "The great success made in the test provided a firm guarantee for us to mount another form of nuclear attack upon the U.S. imperialists and other hostile forces, and makes it possible to have access to more powerful means of reacting to nukes in kind." He added, "Now, North Korea can tip a new type of intercontinental ballistic missile with more powerful nuclear warheads, keeping any cesspool of evil buried in the earth, including the U.S., by keeping them within our striking range and reducing them to ashes so that they may not survive on our planet." Kim has stressed the need to diversify means of nuclear attack at a higher level to defend his state against nuclear threats and the arbitrariness of the U.S. imperialists, according to the KCNA. [ICBM] [Engine test]
• Defense Minister: North Korea has new rocket launcher capable of striking deep
  Posted on : Apr.7,2016 17:25 KST In an interview, Han Min-koo also says it’s too early to conclude that North Korea has developed miniaturization technology Han Min-koo , South Korea’s defense minister South Korea’s defense minister predicted on Apr. 6 that North Korea could have a new 300-mm multiple rocket launcher (MRL) capable of striking as deep as Chungcheong Province in place by the end of this year. In press conference with reporters covering the Ministry of National Defense that day, Minister Han Min-koo said the North’s several recent tests of the MRL “suggest development is almost complete.” The 300-mm MRL has a maximum range of 200 km, which would allow strikes against US Forces Korea (USFK) bases in Osan and Pyeongtaek, as well as the Army, Navy, and Air Forces headquarters at the Gyeryongdae complex in South Chungcheong Province. Called the KN-09, the MRL was first observed by South Korean and US military authorities in 2013. North Korea conducted launches on Mar. 2, Mar. 21, and Mar. 29 this year, and announced on Mar. 22 that it had completed its “final test fire.” [MRL] [Miniaturisation] [Solid fuel]
• Orwell (and the President) Come to Hiroshima
  by Joseph Gerson How to you hide a trillion dollars or spending $66,000 a minute for thirty years building a new nuclear arsenal? Put another way, how to you hide 7,000 nuclear warheads capable of ending human life many times over or? For that matter, how does a nation whose constitution vows to reject war and forswears maintaining military forces pretend that it’s not the world’s sixth greatest military spender with a navy more powerful than China’s? And how does that government divert hijack the political process to adopt “war laws” and rewrite its constitution? It’s easy. The leaders of the two nations make a pilgrimage to Hiroshima, lay flowers at the Cenotaph memorializing the hundreds of thousands of nuclear war victims and promulgate a “Hiroshima Oath.” War is peace. Black is white. Once again we stand in awe of George Orwell’s understandings of “doublespeak.” We can look forward to this propaganda extravaganza when the leaders of the G-7 nations gather in Japan in late May. Secretary of State Kerry travels next week to prepare for the summit and the propaganda show. [Nuclear weapons] [Japanese remilitarisation] [Propaganda]
• Fifth NK nuke test possible in May: academic
  By Choi Sung-jin North Korea may conduct its fifth nuclear test before the seventh congress of the Workers' Party, scheduled for early May, a local expert said Tuesday. "The North is ready to carry out a nuclear test at any time," said Chung Sung-jang, a fellow at the Sejong Institute. "We cannot rule out what the reclusive regime will do prior to the launch of a new administration in the United States or even its party congress in May." He made these and other assertions in a paper he will present at a Korea-Japan symposium in Osaka Friday, titled "Changes in North Korea after Kim Jong-un took power and cooperation between Korea and Japan." Chung, head of the institute's unification strategy research department, stressed the need to recall that North Korea failed to put a rocket into orbit in April 2012 but succeeded in December that year. [Test]
• Navy launches new missile-armed submarine
  South Korea's Navy on Tuesday launched its seventh Son Won-il class submarine that is capable of firing off guided missiles, and can contribute to the country's overall military readiness. The 1,800-ton diesel-electric submarine incorporates the latest technology and possesses a formidable weapons system that can enhance the fleet's fighting capability. The launch ceremony was held at Hyundai Heavy Industries' dockyard in Ulsan, some 400 kilometers southeast of Seoul, and attended by Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Jung Ho-sub and defense procurement officials, the Navy said. The vessel, named Hong Beom-do after a South Korean independence fighter, is also known internationally as a Type 214 attack submarine. Measuring 65 meters from stem to stern with a beam of 6.3 m, the submarine has a maximum speed of 20 knots, or 38 kilometers per hour. It is capable of carrying torpedoes and guided precision-attack missiles as well as around 40 sailors. [SLBM] [Military balance]
• Pyongyang reveals new surface-to-air missile
  By Lee Han-soo North Korea has unveiled its new surface-to-air missile "KN-06." Revealed through the main news service Rodong Sinmun, the missile is suspected to have a range of 150 kilometers with higher accuracy and mobility than earlier missiles. According to 10 photos revealed in the daily newspaper, the missile consists of three pods on top of a vehicle and uses "cold launch," a technology that allows missiles to start the engine after being launched from the pod. North Korea is also suspected of using the same technology to a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) that is being developed. KN-06 was revealed in October 2010 on the 65th anniversary of the Workers' Party of Korea, but this is the first time the military state has shown the missile being fired. [Missile]
• N.Korea Touts Launch of New Surface-to-Air Missile
  A surface-to-air missile is launched in pictures from North Koreas official Rodong Sinmun on Saturday. A surface-to-air missile is launched in pictures from North Korea's official Rodong Sinmun on Saturday. North Korea on Saturday released launch images of a new surface-to-air missile that appears to be a home-grown version of the Patriot missile. The missile has an estimated range of 100 to 150 km and is aimed at repelling South Korean fighter jets. The North's official Rodong Sinmun daily carried about a dozen pictures of the missile being launched as leader Kim Jong-un looked on. Also seen in the photos are trucks loaded with three cylindrical launching tubes. They also show the missile flying obliquely shortly after the vertical launch before hitting the target in the air. The launch technology is the same as that used for South Korea's new home-grown surface-to-air Cheongung missile. The KN-06 was unveiled during a military parade marking the 65th anniversary of the Workers Party in Pyongyang in October 2010, but no images of the test launch were available. Military authorities here have noticed striking similarities to Russia's S-300 and China's HQ-9. "The North probably didn't develop the missile and radar system completely on its own," an intelligence source here said. "Some equipment or technology may have been smuggled into the North from China, Russia or a third country that has S-300 missiles." The publicity for the rocket seems to have been a response to recent South Korea-U.S. drills that practiced airstrikes on strategic North Korean facilities. [Missiles] [Military balance]
• Suspicious Activity at Yongbyon Radiochemical Laboratory; Progress Towards Completing the Experimental Light Water Reactor
  By 38 North 04 April 2016 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by William Mugford and Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. Summary Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates suspicious activity at the Yongbyon Radiochemical Laboratory complex used to produce plutonium for building nuclear weapons. Whether that activity—exhaust plumes from a steam plant used to heat the main plant—means reprocessing additional plutonium is underway or will be in the near future remains unclear. However, James Clapper, the Director of National Intelligence recently stated that the North Koreans could be ready to do so in weeks or months. Pyongyang continues to make slow, steady progress in completing the transformer yard associated with the Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR). Whether that means the ELWR will finally become operational in 2016 remains unclear, particularly since previous estimates have proven optimistic. [LWR]
• Obama’s nuclear legacy is a mirage
  By M.K. Bhadrakumar on April 2, 2016 in Asia Times A little-known fact about the Nuclear Security Summit, which concluded in Washington on April 1, is that it focused only on highly enriched uranium (HEU) in civilian possession, which means mostly materials used for academic research or for producing medical isotopes. The remaining 97% of the world’s supply of HEU is held in military stockpiles, which are not open to discussion. Indeed, when it comes to HEU, even 3% is not negligible, but the brouhaha about the Washington summit, attended by 52 nations and four organizations, must be put in perspective. The rubric Nuclear Security Summit (NSS) is being perceived as President Barack Obama’s nuclear legacy. Obama won the Nobel for promising during his 2008 election campaign to work for nuclear disarmament, which upon reaching the White House he realized was beyond his capability to achieve – and, perhaps, would not even be in the interests of his country – and he therefore decided to settle for the NSS, an improbable mission to catalyze the efforts to make the world safer by focusing on 3% of the world’s nuclear material stockpiles. This may sound Kafkaesque, but then, Obama is a smart politician. What he has done is to peel off the legacy of the United Nations watchdog acting in this field already and to virtually transmute it as his presidential legacy. The forum he created is an unnecessary duplication of the work of the United Nations. [Obama] [Rhetoric]
• America's Nuclear Weapons in Europe Are the Nuclear Elephant in the Room
  By William M. Arkin April 1, 2016 | 5:50 am A little more than 60 miles from Brussels Airport, Kleine Brogel Air Base stands as one of six overseas repositories in the world where the United States still stores nuclear weapons. The existence of the bombs is officially neither confirmed nor denied, but it has been well-known for decades. Yet the presence of these weapons — an estimated 20 American B61 nuclear bombs to be carried and delivered by the Belgian Air Force's dwindling inventory of F-16 fighter jets — did not come up in the news coverage following the Islamic State (IS) bombings last week in Brussels, or in the run-up to President Barack Obama's fourth and last Nuclear Security Summit, being held this week. Nor was Kleine Brogel mentioned in reports about the shooting death, days after the bombings, of a security guard who worked at a Belgian nuclear facility, or in stories about vulnerabilities at Belgiam's nuclear facilities and power plants. In a prominent editorial entitled "Keeping Nuclear Weapons From Terrorists," the New York Times didn't mention that US nuclear weapons are stored in Belgium while arguing that "even if the chances are small that terrorists will acquire a nuclear weapon," the potential consequences are so devastating, we should plug any "possible security gaps." [Nuclear weapons] [NATO] [Nuclear terrorism]
• Moscow Boycotts Obama’s Final Nuclear Security Summit
  The absence of Russia, one of the biggest atomic powers, adds to doubts that the meeting will yield major results. 03/31/2016 10:44 am ET Matt Spetalnick and David Brunnstrom Jonathan Ernst/Reuters At a time of increased tensions between Washington and Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin will not be attending U.S. President Barack Obama’s fourth and final Nuclear Security Summit this week. WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Just as fears of nuclear terrorism are rising, U.S. President Barack Obama’s drive to lock down vulnerable atomic materials worldwide seems to have lost momentum and could slow further. With less than 10 months left in office to follow through on one of his signature foreign policy initiatives, Obama will convene leaders from more than 50 countries in Washington this week for his fourth and final Nuclear Security Summit, a high-level diplomatic process that started and will end on his watch. A boycott by Russian President Vladimir Putin, apparently unwilling to join in a U.S.-dominated gathering at a time of increased tensions between Washington and Moscow, adds to doubts that the meeting will yield major results. [Nuclear terrorism] [Russia confrontation]

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MARCH 2016

• A Solid but Incremental Improvement in North Korea’s Missiles
  By John Schilling 29 March 2016 North Korea recently showed images of a large solid-fuel rocket motor test that appears to have been both real and successful. The motor, much bigger than any solid-fuel motor previously seen in the North, is not appropriately sized to be used on any existing missile in Pyongyang’s stockpile. Rather, a more likely role for the motor is as the upper stage of a solid-fuel replacement for the liquid-fuel Nodong medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM). Such a missile would be more operationally robust, capable of being transported off-road without damage and launched on very short notice. With no indication that such a missile yet exists, and with substantial testing yet to be done, deployment is likely to be five years or more in the future if the program proves to be successful. This new development could serve as a stepping stone to the development of a solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), but even if Pyongyang pursues the development of such a system, it would not become operational until after 2030. [Solid fuel] [ICBM]
• Trump supports South Korea's nuclear armament
  U.S. Republican front-runner Donald Trump said in a news interview released over the weekend that if he becomes president, he will allow South Korea to have its own nuclear weapons and consider pulling out U.S. troops from the country. According to The New York Times picked up in Seoul on Sunday, Trump described his foreign policy as being "America first" and that he will not stand by as the U.S. is "ripped off" by smarter, shrewder and tougher countries. The entrepreneur-turned-politician said that he is not adverse to South Korea and Japan developing their own nuclear deterrence to check Pyongyang's provocations. He said that with North Korea having nukes, it makes sense if neighboring countries have similar weapons to protect themselves. The North, despite warnings from the international community has detonated four nuclear devices starting in 2006, with the latest being tested on Jan. 6. He then said that unless South Korea and Japan significantly increased their contributions to Washington's military presence on their soil, he would withdraw soldiers. Trump said such a move is not something he would like but would push forward anyway. Trump said the United States can ill afford to lose vast amounts of money by stationing troops in these countries. [Trump] [Nuclearisation]
• N.Korea Claims Success in Solid-Fuel Rocket Engine Test
  North Korea on Thursday claimed it has succeeded in testing a solid-fuel engine for its space rockets. If the claim is true, the North could save time injecting fuel into missiles, shortening the period between decision making and launch and threatening South Korea's interception ability. "The predictive value of the test surprisingly matched its measured value," the official [North] Korean Central News Agency claimed. Watching the test, leader Kim Jong-un applauded and expressed "much satisfaction," saying, "We've secured a new springboard in the development of the rocket industry," KCNA said. "We now can further increase the might of ballistic missiles with which to strike hostile forces mercilessly," Kim added. That is the closest admission yet that the North's space rocket launches were veiled tests of intercontinental ballistic missile technology. [Solid fuel] [Missile] [Media]
• N. Korea's solid-fuel engine appears to be for upper-stage rocket: US expert
  Updated : 2016-03-25 11:28 The solid-fuel rocket engine North Korea tested this week appears to be for the upper stage of a satellite launcher or a long-range missile, but the communist nation is believed to be still many years away from developing such missiles, a U.S. expert said Thursday. North Korea's state media claimed earlier Thursday the country successfully conducted a ground test of a solid-fuel rocket engine, with leader Kim Jong-un saying that the test "helped boost the power of ballistic rockets capable of mercilessly striking hostile forces." The North also released photos of the test, showing the engine spewing flames. A solid-fuel missile would pose a greater threat as it would take less preparation time and would be harder to detect before a launch. South Korea said the North appears to be in the early stages of developing solid-fuel rockets. [Solid fuel]
• N.Korea 'Tests Submarine-Launched Missile'
  North Korea conducted a ground ejection test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile last week, according to a U.S. website. Quoting U.S. defense officials, the Washington Free Beacon on Tuesday reported that the test on March 16 "involved a 'pop-up' or 'ejection test' of the developmental SLBM from a canister ashore at the Sinpo shipyard... on North Korea's east coast" where it is being developed. The test, the first since the UN unanimously passed powerful sanctions against the North on March 2, violates UN Security Council Resolution 2270 aimed at deterring the North from continuing nuclear and missile development. Pentagon spokesman Bill Urban declined to comment on the report. The North also conducted a test of the missile from a submarine in waters near Sinpo on Dec. 21 last year, which the website reported on Jan. 5. The test failed. The rocket is apparently an improved version of the Russian-made SS-N-6. The North would need to miniaturize a nuclear warhead to 500-600 kg to mount it on a submarine-launched missile. [SLBM]
• Seoul confirms N. Korea's push to develop solid-fuel rockets
  South Korea confirmed Thursday that North Korea is developing solid-fuel rockets, which would allow the country to conduct rocket launches "frequently." "North Korea appears to be in the (early) stages of developing solid-fuel rockets," Moon Sang-gyun, spokesman of the Ministry of National Defense, said during a press briefing. "North Korea's switch to solid fuel means it could do (missile) launches frequently," the spokesman said. South Korea's military takes the move as a serious development and is preparing countermeasures, he said. [Missiles] [Solid fuel]
• 'Pyongyang tested SLBM last week'
  By Yi Whan-woo North Korea tested a new submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) on March 16, two weeks after the U.N. Security Council (UNSC) imposed its latest sanctions in response to Pyongyang's nuclear and missile tests in January and February, respectively, according to an online U.S. newspaper. Citing defense officials, the Washington Free Beacon reported Tuesday that a "pop-up" or "ejection test" of a KN-11 missile was carried out. It said last week's test took place from a canister at the Sinpo shipyard on North Korea's east coast. The site is where a KN-11 missile is under development along with the new Sinpo-class submarine that can carry ballistic missiles. [SLBM]
• Kim Jong Un Guides Test of Jet of High-power Solid-fuel Rocket Engine and Its Cascade Separation
  Submitted by KCNA on Thu, 03/24/2016 - 10:11 Pyongyang, March 24 (KCNA) -- Kim Jong Un, supreme commander of the Korean People's Army, personally guided the ground test of jet of high-power solid-fuel rocket engine and its cascade separation. The test was aimed to examine the structural safety of the rocket engine newly designed and manufactured by the Korean style and its thrust and estimate the working specifications of heat separation system and other system. The results of the test proved that the values of estimation conformed to those of measurement to an amazing extent and they are in full line with all scientific and technological indexes. He expressed great pleasure and satisfaction, clapping his hands and congratulating them on their success. The successful test of the jet and cascade separation of the above-said rocket engine, which is of historical and strategic importance, by dint of self-reliance and self-development makes it possible to remarkably bolster the military capability of the invincible revolutionary Paektusan army, he noted, stressing that the feats of the defence scientists and technicians would always go down in the history of the country. -0- [Solid fuel]
• DPRK leader guides test firing of new rocket launcher
  Xinhua, March 22, 2016 The top leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) Kim Jong Un has again guided a test firing of a new, large-caliber multiple rocket launcher, the country's official news agency KCNA reported Tuesday. Kim expressed his satisfaction with the accuracy of the rockets and lauded the officials and scientists in the field of national defense and munitions for successfully producing the launching system, according to reports released by KCNA. The rocket launcher is "of great strategic importance in remarkably increasing the capability of the KPA (Korean People's Army) to mount a precision attack on the enemies in the southern part of Korea," the KCNA quoted Kim as saying. Kim was accompanied by director of the General Political Bureau of the KPA Hwang Pyong So and chief of the KPA General Staff Ri Myong Su, as well as other party and military officials. [Military balance]
• Will North [South] Korea Ever Develop into a Nuclear Power?
  Konstantin Asmolov The 2016 Inter-Korean crisis sent ripples throughout the entire region. It also promoted a new wave of discussions of whether South Korea should be armed with nuclear weapons. This theme is not new; just recall some of Chon Mon Zhong’s statements. But this time the national conservatives just cannot seem to ever stop the debate. The Chosun Ilbo featured an article on this subject. It says there that South Korea should finally terminate the South-North Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and begin negotiations with the US to obtain the right to extract enriched uranium. The article notes that South Korea should proceed with caution to not aggravate relations with the US. But it is hard to remain sober when the six-way negotiations just fizzled out, and the US, as well as the People’s Republic of China, blame each other for the failure instead of putting a joint squeeze on North Korea. [Nuclear weapons]
• N.Korea 'Ready for Another Nuke Test'
  North Korea is clearing up and repairing a remote nuclear test site in Punggye-ri, which seems capable of supporting another nuclear test "at any time," according to the website 38 North. North Korean Kim Jong-un early last week announced a test of a nuclear warhead soon. The fourth and latest nuclear test was conducted 22 days after Kim gave the order on Dec. 15. [Test]
• Kim Jong-un Even More Trigger-Happy Than His Father
  North Korean leader Kim Jong-un inspects a military drill in this undated photo from the Rodong Sinmun on Sunday. /Yonhap North Korean leader Kim Jong-un inspects a military drill in this undated photo from the Rodong Sinmun on Sunday. /Yonhap North Korea's submarine-launched ballistic missile and intercontinental ballistic missile technology has become more sophisticated, Defense Minister Han Min-goo said Friday. He added the regime's leader Kim Jong-un, who has been in power for five years, has fired more missiles than his father Jong-il did during his entire rule from 1994 to 2011. But Han dismissed the North's claim on March 15 that it has conducted a successful atmospheric reentry test of a warhead. "The North said the test subjected the reentry vehicle to 1,500 to 1,600 degrees Celsius of intense heat. But reentry vehicles need to withstand upwards of 7,000 degrees," he said. "I don't think that the North has succeeded in obtaining reentry technology." But he warned that the North could catch the South off-guard with other provocations. "The North seems to be ready to conduct another nuclear test anytime if the leader makes the decision," he added. [Reentry]
• [Editorial] NK’s growing nuke arsenal challenges our way of dealing with it
  Posted on : Mar.16,2016 17:47 KST North Korean leader Kim Jong-un looks during field guidance at an object that appears to be a ballistic missile warhead, in this photo from the Mar. 15 edition of the Rodong Sinmun newspaper. (Yonhap News) North Korea keeps ratcheting up its nuclear threats toward the US. While it may have several aims in doing so, the only effect will be to heighten the international community’s sense of alarm. We hope Pyongyang will opt for the path of denuclearization right now and seek a way of coexisting with the rest of the world. Reports by the North’s state media on Mar. 15 stressed two points. One was that the North had independently developed atmospheric re-entry vehicle (RV) technology for intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). If we consider this together with the nuclear warhead miniaturization and diversification technology it claimed to have a few days before, it would mean it has the capability to carry out a direct strike on the US. The other was that Pyongyang planned to go ahead “in the near future” with warhead explosion testing and test launches for various forms of ballistic rockets capable of carrying warheads. In short, it was announcing its plans for a fifth nuclear test. If true, its claims would mean the North has nuclear technology second only to the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). The South Korean government’s position is that the North has yet to develop either warhead miniaturization or RV technology. [Reentry] [Miniaturisation]
• N. Korea fires two mid-range missiles
  One falls into waters within Japan air defense zone
  By Jun Ji-hye North Korea launched two missiles, presumed to be the nuclear-capable mid-range Rodong-type, into the East Sea Friday, according to the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS). The latest provocation is a show of force against increasing international pressure to give up its nuclear program and the ongoing joint military exercises between South Korea and the United States. One missile fell within the Japan Air Defense Identification Zone (JADIZ) in the East Sea after flying about 800 kilometers, while the other disappeared off the radar early into its flight, raising speculation that it may have detonated in midair right after takeoff. [Missile]
• North Korea’s Punggye-ri Facility Appears Ready to Support New Nuclear Tests
  By 38 North 18 March 2016 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu. Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates continued activity at North Korea’s Punggye-ri nuclear test site that does not appear directed at further tunnel excavation but rather to maintain existing tunnels as well as to clean up after the January 2016 nuclear test. It is highly likely that site is capable of supporting additional tests at any time. [Test]
• In response to int’l sanctions, North Korea unleashes steady show of nuke capabilities
  Posted on : Mar.16,2016 18:01 KST North Korean leader Kim Jong-un looks during field guidance at an object that appears to be a ballistic missile warhead, in this photo from the Mar. 15 edition of the Rodong Sinmun newspaper. (Yonhap News) The most pressing questions regarding NK’s arsenal is whether they have developed reentry technology Since UN sanctions against North Korea kicked in, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has taken steps almost daily to demonstrate the North‘s nuclear ability. North Korean media reported the test launch of a large-caliber rocket launcher on Mar. 4, the development of a ballistic rocket and a miniaturized and standardized nuclear warhead on Mar. 9, the test launch of a ballistic rocket on Mar. 11 and the acquisition of technology for nuclear warheads reentering the atmosphere on Mar. 15. With each report, Pyongyang appears to be responding to doubts in the international community about the nuclear technology that the North claims to possess. This is also the sequence followed by the US, the Soviet Union and China when they were developing nuclear weapons. Technically speaking, if the North has successfully “detonated nuclear warheads and test launched several kinds of ballistic rockets that can equip nuclear warheads,” as Kim Jong-un claims, then it is effectively putting the finishing touches to its nuclear arsenal. This makes it difficult to believe that the “stern retribution” by the international community and the South Korean government is accomplishing much. [Sanctions]
• North Korea’s Ballistic Missile Submarine Program: An Update
  By 38 North 17 March 2016 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. North Korea’s recent launch of the Kwangmyongsong-4 satellite has also raised concerns about its continuing development of the Bukkeukseong-1 (Polaris-1, KN-11) submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) and the GORAE-class experimental ballistic missile submarine.[1] Recent commercial satellite imagery of the Sinpo South Shipyard indicates that North Korea is continuing to actively pursue development of both programs. [SLBM]
• Kim Jong-un Announces Another Nuclear Test
  North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on Tuesday announced that his country will conduct another nuclear test "in a short time" as well as testing a ballistic missile capable of carrying the deadly payload. According to the official [North] Korean Central News Agency, Kim also claimed that the North succeeded in a test simulating the intense heat a nuclear warhead would experience during atmospheric reentry. That would be crucial in the North's development of an ICBM with a range capable of striking the continental U.S. [Test] [Reentry]
• North Korea vows nuke, missile tests soon
  North Korean leader Kim Jong-un observes a simulated test of a reentry vehicle needed for a warhead to reenter the Earth's atmosphere following a long-range missile launch, shown in the left photo. / Yonhap Park warns North of collapse without embracing change By Kang Seung-woo North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said that his military regime will test nuclear warheads and ballistic missiles "in a short time," according to Pyongyang's state media, Tuesday. The North's announcement came days after it said it has successfully miniaturized a nuclear warhead to fit on a ballistic missile. "Declaring that a nuclear warhead explosion test and a test-fire of several kinds of ballistic rockets able to carry nuclear warheads will be conducted in a short time to further enhance the reliance of nuclear attack capability, the General instructed the relevant section to make prearrangement for them to the last detail," the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said. [Reentry] [Deterrence] [Missiles]
• N. Korea is bluffing about missile re-entry capability
  By Jun Ji-hye South Korean military and defense analysts are questioning the credibility of North Korea's latest claim that it has acquired missile re-entry technology necessary to bring a nuclear-armed ballistic missile back into the Earth's atmosphere, saying that Pyongyang has yet to conduct any test of such technology. They said that Pyongyang is apparently bluffing in an apparent show of defiance against tougher U.N. sanctions and ongoing Seoul-Washington joint military drills with no clear evidence that it possesses such technology. Their evaluations come after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un claimed through the state-run media, the Korea Central News Agency (KCNA), on Tuesday that the regime has "proudly acquired the re-entry technology, thus making a great progress in the ballistic rocket technology that helps strengthen the independence." [Reentry]
• DPRK to test nuclear warhead 'in short time'
  China.org.cn, March 15, 2016 Top leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) Kim Jong Un said the country will soon conduct a nuclear warhead test and a test-fire of ballistic rockets able to carry nuclear warheads, according to the official KCNA news agency. Kim made the remarks when he guided an environmental simulation for re-entry into atmosphere of the warhead tip of a ballistic missile. The simulation was conducted to "verify the thermodynamic structural stability of newly-developed heat-resisting materials under the high pressure and thermal flow caused by aerodynamic heating" when a ballistic rocket re-enters the atmosphere, the KCNA said, adding that the test results met all technical parameters. Kim noted that by acquiring the re-entry technology, the DPRK has made great progress in ballistic rocket technology, which strengthens the country's defense capability and the munition industry. When guiding a drill of ballistic rockets last week, the DPRK top leader underscored the need to step up efforts to develop nuclear weapons and diversify means for delivering nuclear warheads. Kim said then that the DPRK has been able to produce miniaturized and standardized nuclear warheads for ballistic missiles, and that "can be called a true nuclear deterrent." [Test] [Deterrent] [ICBM] [Reentry]
• Nukes They Can Use? The Danger of North Korea Going Tactical
  By Van Jackson 15 March 2016 The BombOn March 2, 2016, Kim Jong Un gave direction to the military to “get the nuclear warheads deployed for national defense always on standby so as to be fired at any moment.” The North reiterated versions of this formulation for days afterwards, including a “preemptive nuclear strike of justice.” These threats drew international attention because of concerns about the prospect of imminent violence, particularly in the wake of unprecedented UN sanctions and the kickoff of Key Resolve, the combined US-ROK annual military exercise. But focusing on the possibility of near term violence obscures a potentially more dangerous longer term shift: Is North Korea signaling an intention to embrace tactical nuclear weapons? The answer is still unclear, but that option seems increasingly plausible. This should become a serious line of debate for Korea watchers because such a turn has critical consequences for how we think about deterrence and war-fighting on the Korean peninsula. [Tactical nuclear weapons]
• ATOMIC SPIES IN SOUTHERN SKIES: Operation Crowflight–United States high altitude radiological sampling in Australia 1960-1966
  NAPSNET Special Report Philip Dorling March 15, 2016 I. INTRODUCTION Operation Crowflight has long been forgotten, but in the first half of the nineteen sixties it was the largest United States defence and intelligence project in Australia. Between 1960 and 1966 the United States Air Force employed advanced U-2, JB-57 and RB-57 aircraft in a high altitude radiological sampling missions over the ocean far south of Australia in what was part of a top secret effort to determine the size of the Soviet Union’s nuclear arsenal. Drawing on a wide range of declassified documents, historian Philip Dorling sheds new light on this little known episode in Australian-American relations in the Cold War which has enduring significance as Australia and the United States again step up defence cooperation half a century later. [Intelligence]
• China, Russia oppose DPRK's nuclear program
  China.org.cn, March 12, 2016 Visiting Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (3rd R) holds talks with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov (2nd L) in Moscow, Russia, on March 11, 2016. [Xinhua] Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow on Friday. The two sides exchanged views on a number of current global issues and vowed to strengthen bilateral ties. Both Russia and China are strongly opposed to North Korea's nuclear ambitions, Lavrov said while briefing the press after a meeting with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi. He urged North Korea to return to the negotiation table. "We hope that North Korea will arrive at the appropriate conclusions and listen to the demands of the UN Security Council. We hope it will finally return to the negotiating table as a participant of the six-party process." Wang Yi echoed Lavro's sentiments, reiterating China's stance in pushing for a de-nuclearized Korean Peninsula. "The United Nations Security Council Resolution 2270 should be fully implemented, which would, on the one hand, block further development of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea's (DPRK) nuclear programs, and on the other, should not have impact on its people and humanitarian need," Wang said. [China NK] [Russia NK] [UNUS] [Six Party Talks]
• Five Things You Need to Know about Kim Jong Un’s Photo Op with the Bomb
  By Jeffrey Lewis 11 March 2016 On March 9, KCNA and Rodong Sinmun announced that Kim Jong Un had visited a facility where he learned about North Korea’s progress in mating nuclear weapons to ballistic missiles. A subsequent television broadcast included more than dozen still images from the visit. Not only did Kim Jong Un pose with a number of missiles, including the KN-08, but he also posed with a model of compact nuclear weapon and modern reentry body. Here are the five things you need to know about Kim’s visit. [ICBM] [Miniaturization] [Military balance]
• Russia and China to North Korea: Return to nuclear talks
  Moscow | By Denis Dyomkin and Dmitry Solovyov Russia and China told North Korea on Friday its nuclear ambitions were unacceptable, urging Pyongyang to resume talks over its nuclear weapons program and heed a U.N. Security Council resolution banning ballistic missile tests. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stepped up pressure on Pyongyang after holding talks in Moscow a day after North Korea defied the United Nations by firing two short-range ballistic missiles into the sea. "We do not recognize the nuclear status of the DPRK," Wang told a news briefing via a translator, using the official acronym for North Korea. The North should "fully and comprehensively" implement the U.N. resolution, Wang said. "At the same time, we will not spare efforts to return to the six-way talks," he added. [Six Party Talks] [Double standards] [China Russia] [UNUS]
• DPRK fires 2 short-range missiles into East Sea
  China.org.cn, March 10, 2016 The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) fired two short-range ballistic missiles into the East Sea, the South Korean military said Thursday. South Korean amphibious assault landing vehicles move to a landing ship at the sea near Pohang, South Korea, on March 7, 2016. South Korea and the United States on Monday kicked off their largest-ever annual war games. [Photo/Xinhua] South Korean amphibious assault landing vehicles move to a landing ship at the sea near Pohang, South Korea, on March 7, 2016. South Korea and the United States on Monday kicked off their largest-ever annual war games. [Photo/Xinhua] The latest missile launch by DPRK came days after the South Korea and the United States started their largest ever military exercises Yonhap news agency quoted the military as reporting that the DPRK fired the two missiles at around 5:20 a.m. local time from its North Hwanghae Province and the missiles hit the waters northeast of the port city of Wonsan off the country' east coast. The South Korea was following the situation closely and prepared to deal with any DPRK provocations, the military said. [Missiles] [Media]
• N.Korea Claims It Has Miniaturized Nuclear Warhead
  North Korea on Wednesday showed off what it claims is a miniaturized nuclear weapon and a purported diagram of a nuclear warhead that can be mounted on an intercontinental ballistic missile. The Defense Ministry here said it is unlikely that the North really has the wherewithal to miniaturize nuclear warheads, but some experts warn that it is at least on the way. The official Rodong Sinmun daily quoted North Korean leader Kim Jong-un as saying, "The nuclear warheads have been standardized to be fit for ballistic missiles by miniaturizing them" alongside pictures of a round silver object and several missiles. It was the first time Kim has commented on the renegade country's ability to make a nuclear warhead small enough to fit on a missile. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un instructs officials in this photo published in the Rodong Sinmun daily on Wednesday. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un instructs officials in this photo published in the Rodong Sinmun daily on Wednesday. North Korea has conducted around 130 detonation tests from the 1980s until the 2000s to develop a trigger that could be used on a warhead. The detonator revealed Wednesday measures 60 to 80 cm. There are around 70 hexagonal shapes on its surface, which are believed to be high-explosive charges called lenses. They would detonate simultaneously to create a high-pressure environment that triggers a nuclear explosion. [Warhead] [Miniaturization] [Deterrence]
• N. Korea claims to have nuclear warhead
  North Korean leader Kim Jong-un speaks to scientists standing in front of a silver, round-shaped object, presumed to be a mockup of a miniaturized nuclear warhead, in a photo published Wednesday by Pyongyang's Rodong Sinmun. / Yonhap Credibility questioned by South Korea military officials By Jun Ji-hye North Korea said Wednesday that it has miniaturized and standardized nuclear warheads to fit on its ballistic missiles, and therefore has "true" nuclear deterrence. The North published photos of a silver round-shaped object, presumed to be a mockup of a miniaturized nuclear warhead, and several KN-08 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) through the Rodong Sinmun, the state's main newspaper. However, military officials in South Korea and the United States questioned the credibility of these claims, saying that there is no clear evidence that Pyongyang has developed a nuclear warhead small enough to fit on a ballistic missile. Commentators on North Korean issues say that Pyongyang is ratcheting up its nuclear threats in an apparent effort to prevent its citizens becoming agitated about the sanctions imposed by the international community against the regime, as well as the ongoing Seoul-Washington joint annual drills. "The nuclear warheads have been standardized to be fit for ballistic missiles by miniaturizing them," North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was quoted as saying by Pyongyang's state-run media, the Korea Central News Agency (KCNA). "This can be called a true nuclear deterrent." [Miniaturization] [Deterrence]
• More Rockets in Kim Jong Un’s Pockets: North Korea Tests A New Artillery System
  By Jeffrey Lewis 07 March 2016 On Friday, March 4, North Korea showed off a new “large-caliber” artillery rocket system. In this context, large-caliber probably means between 300-400 mm. North Korea appears to have tested the system from its coastal test range at Wonsan, with the projectiles flying about 150 km. Although Kim Jong Un watched a number of tests of different kinds of conventional warheads, the North Korean statement on the weapon described the system as one of a series of new strike capabilities under development. It also talks about the importance of increasing the quantity and quality of North Korea’s nuclear weapons, implying—but not asserting directly—the system might eventually be nuclear armed. What Is The New System? There have been a number of press reports in recent years about North Korea’s development of a new, large-caliber artillery weapon. [Rocket Artillery] [Military balance] [Decapitation]
• Bikini Day Remembrance: Former Marshall Islands Foreign Minister Tony de Brum’s Speech
  Posted on March 3, 2016 by Mike Bass Remarks for BIKINI Day, Japan, 2016 Tony de Brum speaks at the 2016 Bikini Day Remembrance Former Marshall Islands Foreign Minister Tony de Brum speaks at the 2016 Bikini Day Remembrance I am honoured to be here with you on this very special occasion. I wish to first offer my apologies for not keeping my promise to be with you in previous years for reasons which were not within my control. I bring you greetings from the people of the Marshall Islands who, like you, share the knowledge of the horrors of nuclear weapons and their ever increasing threat to human life, to our children, and to our mother earth. While our experience with nuclear arms affected a much smaller population than that of our Japanese brothers and sisters, it has taught us lessons of everlasting value not just for ourselves but all of mankind. From the deliberate exposure of human beings to radiation to systematic cover up of critical health impacts, from human experimentation to premature resettlement of exposed populations, from denial of claims to withholding of information critical to basic understanding of the extent of damage, the nuclear history of the Marshall Islands has been nothing short of a testament to the abuse, mistreatment, and marginalization of human beings by more powerful more, more ambitious neighbors. [Test]
• Post-Launch Activity Observed at Sohae: Rocket Engine Test Possible
  By 38 North 03 March 2016 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu. Executive Summary Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates new activity at North Korea’s Sohae Satellite Launching Station since the February 7 satellite launch, including possible preparations for a rocket engine test. An unusual convoy of five small 4-meter-long trucks, apparently traveling north from the vertical engine test stand may be returning from the delivery of supplies, fuel or even engine components. (A recently constructed environmental shed at the stand could conceal such a delivery.) In addition to activity at the test stand, vehicles and personnel are present at the Sohae launch pad. Their purpose, however, appears to be post-launch maintenance rather than preparations for a new satellite launch.
• Kim Jong-un orders to ready nuclear weapons
  Updated : 2016-03-04 14:08??? North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has ordered the country's nuclear weapons to be made ready for use at a "moment's notice," its state media reported on Friday. He also said the communist state will revise its military posture so that it can be ready to carry out pre-emptive attacks, stressing that the current situation has become "very precarious," according to the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). Kim made the remarks while attending the North's test-firing Thursday of a new multiple launch rocket system during his "field guidance," the KCNA said. The KCNA did not mention the exact time and venue of the test. But Seoul officials believe it took place in the North's eastern coastal city of Wonsan on Thursday when the North was seen firing six short-range projectiles into the East Sea. The North Korean leader has put his military on high alert as South Korea and the U.S. are poised to stage their annual military drills this month. Pyongyang has criticized the planned allied drills as intended to "decapitate" its leadership. [Conditionality] [Joint US military]
• North Korea fires projectiles into sea after U.N. passes new sanctions
  By Anna Fifield March 3 at 12:53 AM ? TOKYO — North Korea fired six short-range projectiles into the Sea of Japan Thursday, just hours after the United Nations passed sweeping new sanctions against Kim Jong Un’s regime as punishment for its recent nuclear test and missile launch. It was not immediately clear whether the projectiles were rockets or short-range missiles, but South Korea’s defense ministry said that they were fired from Wonsan, the port city on North Korea’s east coast, at about 10:00 a.m. local time. They flew as far as 100 miles before falling into the sea, according to local reports. [Missiles] [Media]
• Did the Atom Bomb Test Fallout Cause Cancer?
  12/23/2010 08:10 am ET | Updated May 25, 2011 Samuel S. Epstein Cancer prevention expert, Prof. emeritus at U. of IL School of Public Health, Chicago The huge mushroom clouds from atom bomb tests of the 1950s and 1960s are an unforgettable part of the American saga. The tests were cloaked in rhetoric typical of the Cold War, i.e. they were needed to achieve "superiority" over the Soviets in the event of a nuclear war. But all the patriotic nuclear talk couldn't prevent widespread concern that nuclear war would kill tens of millions. But many were also troubled by fallout in the mushroom clouds, which contained huge amounts of over 100 deadly radioactive chemicals that traveled through the air across the continental U.S. Precipitation brought this fallout back to earth -- and into the food chain and human bodies. Concerns became so great that scientists and citizens began calling for studies of how much fallout was entering people's bodies, and how much harm it was causing -- especially to the highly-sensitive fetuses, infants, and children. Dr. Herman Kalckar of the National Institutes of Health published an article in August 1958, calling for a baby tooth "census" -- a program of collecting teeth and testing them in laboratories for fallout levels. In particular, Kalckar suggested that Strontium-90 be measured.
• S. Korea, U.S. agree on space cooperation deal
  2016/02/29 17:36 SEOUL, Feb. 29 (Yonhap) -- South Korea and the United States have agreed on a space cooperation deal to boost civilian exchanges in the space sector, Seoul's Foreign Ministry said Monday. The agreement, reached on Sunday, is aimed at establishing a legal and institutional framework for increased civilian cooperation in space science, earth observation and space exploration. It is the first time the U.S. has agreed to a government-to-government deal on space cooperation with an Asian nation, the ministry said. The allies "will soon take steps for its signing and coming into effect," a ministry official told reporters on the customary condition of anonymity. Talks on the agreement began in 2010, but only gained momentum after a summit meeting between President Park Geun-hye and her U.S. counterpart, Barack Obama, in October. The agreement "reaffirms the strongest alliance between South Korea and the U.S.," the official added. The two countries have sought to expand their cooperation under the New Frontier slogan to cover issues ranging from space and cyberspace to health, environment, energy and technology. hague@yna.co.kr [Satellite] [Double standards]

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FEBRUARY 2016

• US Nuclear Weapons: Amid Threats From Russia, China, North Korea, $450B Modernization Program Pushed
  By Christopher Harress ?@Charress On 02/25/16 AT 5:23 PM The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has helped reimagine the rivalry between NATO and Russia, forcing the U.S. military to urgently address its aging nuclear-weapons program. But it won’t be cheap. A congressional subcommittee meeting Wednesday heard evidence from Pentagon planners that the cost of replacing and upgrading the country's current nuclear system will be an estimated $450 billion over 10 years. It could cost less, but money-saving options— like reducing the number of submarines that deliver nuclear weapons — would shrink the size and cost of the arsenal considerably, potentially risking U.S. national security and slashing spending on conventional weapons programs. Defense analysts said scaling back the nuclear arsenal could make the U.S. look weak and destabilize its global allies. “Unilateral nuclear reductions would absolutely send the wrong message to Russia, China and other adversaries, by allowing them to think they could use and brandish nuclear weapons,” said Thomas Karako, a senior fellow on the international security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington, D.C.-based think tank. “It would also send the wrong message to our allies, Japan, South Korea, Poland, NATO, who all rely on the ultimate backstop of the United States as a support to their own defenses.” [Threat] [MISCOM] [China Confrontation] [Russia confrontation]
• N. Korea vows to bolster nuclear program
  North Korea pledged Saturday to further strengthen its nuclear program in response to tougher U.S. sanctions on Pyongyang over its recent nuclear test and long-range rocket launch. North Korea claimed that the U.S. moving to hold in check its policy of developing its economy and nuclear arsenal in tandem is "as foolish as trying to get the sun eclipsed by (your) palms." "The harsher the U.S. becomes in its hostile policy, the more firmly the (North) will stick to its line of simultaneously pushing forward economic construction and the building of nuclear force," an unidentified spokesman for North Korea's Foreign Ministry said in an English-language statement carried by the country's official Korean Central News Agency. [Byungjin]
• “Russian Trace” behind the North Korean Missile
  Konstantin Asmolov For some, political prejudice and poor competency have become synonymous with the South Korean intelligence services. Every now and then our magazine informed its readers about yet another fishy story it got itself into and published some mind-boggling “revelation,” which later got exposed as utter gimmicks. And, although the Republic of Korea intelligence services cannot be considered the “Queen of the Hoax,” being surpassed by the Japanese mass media, the right-wing conservative The Chosun Ilbo an establishments similar to Radio Free Asia, they manage to fabricate enough “credible stories” to keep the whole world “on the edge of its seat.” Representatives of the Republic of Korea made a grave accusation against the Russian Federation in connection with the critical situation around the launching of the North Korean missile. On February 7, Director of the South Korean National Intelligence Service Lee Byoung-ho held a closed-door briefing for the members of the National Security Council, after which South Korean lawmaker Lee Cheol Woo announced to journalists that “North Korea, of course, did something on its own, but important technology was most likely given by Russia and there is plenty of information that supports this.” http://journal-neo.org/2016/02/21/russian-trace-behind-the-north-korean-missile/ [Satellite] [Canard]
• Recently Launched Satellites
  In this category are all objects launched in the last 30 days and includes cargo resupply to the ISS (International Space Station) as well as those satellites placed in orbit from the ISS. Most of the satellites seen in this list are geostationary communications equipment. [Satellite]
• Military wraps up retrieval of N. Korean missile debris
  By Kwon Ji-youn The South Korean military on Saturday said it has retrieved two additional pieces of debris presumed to be from the long-range rocket North Korea launched earlier this month, adding that it has wrapped up its search for fragments of the rocket. "We believe there are no more significant pieces of debris left to collect," a military official said. North Korea launched a long-range rocket carrying what it claimed was a satellite on Feb. 7, a move seen as a banned test of ballistic missile technology. The rocket's first stage is believed to have exploded into some 270 pieces before falling into the West Sea 410 kilometers from the North's Sohae Satellite Launching Station. [Satellite] [Military balance]
• North Korean leader hints at launching more satellites - or missiles
  By Choi Sung-jin Updated : 2016-02-19 19:06 North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has called for the promotion and strengthening of international trust and cooperation in the peaceful research of space science and satellite launches, a state news organ said. Kim made these and other points during an awards ceremony in Pyongyang Wednesday for officials who contributed to the launch of the "Kwangmyeongseong 4" satellite, the (North) Korean Central News Agency reported. Analysts in Seoul said Kim's remarks reaffirmed his intention to fire additional long-range missiles. "The advance to vast space is our strategic goal," Kim was quoted as saying. "We should step up efforts for space development projects according to our five-year plan with renewed vigor, by launching working satellites more frequently, more rapidly and more satisfyingly." [Satellite]
• U.S. Expert Warns of Nuclear Arms Race in East Asia
  A U.S. expert on nonproliferation has warned South Korea, Japan and Taiwan are the most likely candidates in East Asia to develop their own nuclear weapons in the face of the nuclear threat. "If a new nuclear-armed state were to emerge in Northeast Asia, it would most likely be" South Korea, said Mark Fitzpatrick, who heads the U.S. office of the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. The book making the claim, "Asia's Latent Nuclear Powers: Japan, South Korea and Taiwan," is published Thursday. The author believes that South Korea could develop a nuclear weapon within two years if it sets its sights on the task. It would only require four to six months to enrich uranium and reprocess spent nuclear fuel rods, but the development period would be extended to 19 to 24 months for facility design and staff hiring and training. South Korea has the know-how to manufacture ballistic and cruise missiles and ample experience in civilian atomic power generation. The Hyunmu-2B ballistic missile is capable of hitting targets more than 500 km away, and one South Korean cruise missile has a maximum range of 1,500 km. Fitzpatrick said South Korea's conventional missile warheads measure 0.52 to 0.54 m in diameter, which is smaller than early versions of nuclear bombs. Meanwhile, Wall Street Journal columnist Michael Auslin wrote on Monday that U.S. President Barack Obama pledged to maintain solid security on the Korean peninsula, but that promise was shattered following North Korea's nuclear test last month. Although South Korea may not cross the Rubicon of developing nuclear weapons, it has come "in sight of the river," Auslin said. He added Seoul feels "betrayed" by U.S. leaders who had vowed to stop North Korea's nuclear weapons program and that Japan, Singapore and Taiwan will follow if the South decides to develop nuclear weapons. But Fitzpatrick said nuclear arms development would entail international sanctions, which would lead to huge economic, political and military losses for South Korea. "Seoul is very unlikely to cross the nuclear-weapons threshold, however, as long as the U.S. defense commitment remains credible," he added. [Nuclear weapons] [Threshold] [Nuclearisation]
• For S. Korea, getting nukes would lead to pariah status
  Posted on : Feb.16,2016 17:23 KST Ruling party floor leader calls for South Korea to develop nukes, apparently without considering the consequences On Feb. 15, Saenuri Party (NFP) floor leader Won Yoo-cheol argued that South Korea should acquire nuclear weapons and long-range missiles in the interest of national security, in a speech on behalf of his party in the National Assembly. This means that support of South Korea’s nuclear armament, which has been occasionally made by the far right, is now being openly voiced in the political mainstream. Since this was an official speech in the National Assembly by the floor leader of the party in power, it is likely to provoke a major backlash both inside and outside of the country. The idea of South Korea acquiring a nuclear arsenal not only is unrealistic given the reality of international politics but is also a reckless and self-destructive proposal that would take a huge toll on the country in the areas of the economy, foreign policy, and security. “In his speech, Won Yoo-cheol was saying he wanted to go down the path of North Korea. If South Korea pursues nuclear armament, it will become an international pariah and be hit with sanctions just like North Korea and will suffer severe economic damage,” said Lee Geun, a professor at the Graduate School of International Studies at Seoul National University. [Nuclearisation] [US-ROK Alliance]
• Is North Korea Preparing for a Fifth Nuclear Test?
  By 38 North 16 February 2016 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu. Recent news reports citing South Korean intelligence sources state that North Korea is preparing for its fifth nuclear test. Such a reaction to pending United Nations and US sanctions is possible given the North’s past behavior. However, an examination of commercial satellite imagery from late January through early February 2016 reveals few if any signs of test preparations. Regardless, given the recent experience with the January 6 test—namely that North Korea appears to have altered its past test preparation practices in order to make them more difficult to detect—it may well be that the North could conduct another detonation with little or no warning. [Test]
• N.Korea Launches New Missile Command
  North Korea has launched a new brigade in charge of intercontinental ballistic missiles, a government source here said Sunday. The source said the brigade comes under a special command supervising all missile units but is a separate unit from those handling shorter-range missiles. The move comes after the North fired a rocket into space earlier this month in what was widely seen as a test of ICBM technology. Development of the missiles is not yet complete, but the creation of the brigade suggests the North is confident that it is only a matter of time.
• How N.Korea Surprised the World with Rocket Launch
  North Korea apparently built a secret railway terminal under its rocket launch pad in Tongchang-ri, North Pyongan Province to avoid South Korean and U.S. satellite monitoring. It also probably built a facility at the site that allows technicians to assembly and inspect rockets horizontally, thereby shortening launch preparation from more than a week to just one or two days. This is what enabled the North to launch a space rocket on Jan. 7 without observers noticing that it was imminent. Chae Yeon-seok, a former head of the Korea Aerospace Research Institute, arrived at the conclusions by analyzing satellite images of the site over the past year. [Satellite]
• Additional Patriot missile systems deployed in South Korea
  In this Jan. 10, 2016, photo, U.S. Patriot missiles are seen at the Osan U.S. Air Base in Pyeongtaek, South Korea. The United States said Saturday it temporarily deployed an additional Patriot missile battery in South Korea in response to North Korea's nuclear test and a long-range rocket launch, ahead of talks next week to set up an even more sophisticated U.S. missile defense in a move that has worried China and Russia./ AP-Yonhap The United States has deployed additional Patriot missile systems in South Korea in the latest move to counter North Korea's provocative steps, United States Forces Korea (USFK) said Saturday. The USFK made the announcement, saying that stationing the Patriot missile systems in South Korea is part of a readiness exercise being carried out in response to Pyongyang's long-range rocket launch on Feb. 7. The communist regime's rocket launch followed its fourth explosion of a nuclear device on Jan. 6, the combination of which has skyrocketed tension on the Korean Peninsula. The Patriot missiles from D Battery of the 1-43 Air Defense Artillery unit stationed at Fort Bliss, Texas, United States, have been joined with two existing batteries at Osan Air Base, South Korea. The 35th Air Defense Artillery Brigade at Osan, some 55 kilometers south of the capital city, has 96 PAC-2 and PAC-3 Patriot missiles. The Patriot missiles, with a top speed of Mach 3.5 to 5, can reach an altitude of 40 kilometers to intercept North Korea's short-range KN-01 and KN-02 missiles as well as the longer range Scud and Rodong systems that can target all of South Korea. [Missiles] [Patriot] [SAM]
• North Korea cannot repeat China’s nuclear weapons path
  Source: Global Times Published: 2016-2-7 18:10:03 North Korea launched a long-range rocket on Sunday morning. Pyongyang authorities said they had successfully launched the Kwangmyongsong-4 earth observation satellite, while the US, South Korea and Japan considered the launch to be a long-range missile test. Pyongyang has made progress in long-range rocket and missile technology, but it is far from mastering mature long-range missile system and building a strategic deterrence. North Korea hopes it can effectively threaten the US homeland, but it views the matter too simply. Washington regards Pyongyang’s rocket launch as “severe provocation.” The majority of the international community doesn’t believe that in the foreseeable future, Pyongyang can miniaturize warheads and have the long-range nuclear strike ability to coerce Asia-Pacific countries and the US. [Satellite] [Test] [Nuclear weapons] [Double standards] [Parallels]
• US intel chief: DPRK restarted plutonium reactor
  Xinhua, February 10, 2016 The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has expanded a uranium enrichment facility and restarted a plutonium production reactor, U.S. intelligence chief James Clapper said Tuesday. "We further assess that North Korea (DPRK) has been operating the reactor long enough so that it could begin to recover plutonium from the reactor's spent fuel within a matter of weeks to months," Clapper said in a statement to the Senate Armed Services Committee. He said Pyongyang announced in 2013 its intention to "refurbish and restart" its nuclear facilities, to include the uranium enrichment facility at Yongbyon and its graphite-moderated plutonium production reactor, which was shut down in 2007. The DPRK said Sunday that it had successfully launched a Kwangmyongsong-4 Earth observation satellite into orbit, about a month after Pyongyang claimed that it had successfully tested its first hydrogen bomb. The U.S. has condemned the DPRK's "destabilizing and provocative" actions and vowed to "take all necessary steps to defend ourselves and our allies." The DPRK's nuclear weapons and missile programs will "continue to pose a serious threat to U.S. interests and to the security environment in East Asia in 2016," Clapper told lawmakers on Tuesday. The DPRK's export of ballistic missiles and associated materials to several countries, including Iran and Syria, and its assistance to Syria's construction of a nuclear reactor, destroyed in 2007, illustrate its willingness to proliferate dangerous technologies, Clapper said. The UN Security Council on Sunday also strongly condemned DPRK's launch using ballistic missile technology on Saturday. "This launch, as well as any other DPRK launch that uses ballistic missile technology, even if characterized as a satellite launch or space launch vehicle, contributes to the DPRK's development of nuclear weapon delivery systems," said a press statement of the council. The launch is a serious violation of Security Council resolutions 1718 (2006), 1874 (2009), 2087 (2013), and 2094 (2013), it added. [Yongbyon] [Chinese IR] [Clapper]
• North Korea Launches Another Large Rocket: Consequences and Options
  By Michael Elleman 10 February 2016 North Korea launched a satellite on Feb 7, causing outrage in the international community. Photo: KCTV On February 7, 2016, North Korea boosted a small satellite into space from the Sohae Satellite Launching Station using a three-stage, liquid-fueled Unha rocket. According to a CBS News report, the Kwangmyongsong-4 satellite is orbiting earth, but is tumbling and likely inoperative. The controversial launch violates numerous United Nations Security Council resolutions, which proscribe North Korea from using ballistic missile technologies, including satellite launches. Historically, North Korea has paired its rocket launches with nuclear detonations a few weeks later, though in this case, the order of events was reversed. While all North Korean rocket tests should be discouraged and condemned, the magnitude of punitive sanctions applied to the already heavily isolated regime should be consistent with the threat posed by the type of rocket launched. Long-range ballistic-missile flight tests are far more menacing than a satellite launch using a rocket designed for space missions. American efforts to deter and prevent North Korea from flight testing the KN-08, Musudan or other long-range ballistic missile must take priority over unwelcomed satellite launches using the Unha or equivalent rockets. [Satellite] [US NK policy] [ICBM]
• North Korea satellite in stable orbit but not seen transmitting: U.S. sources
  Washington | By Andrea Shalal and David Brunnstrom North Korea's recently launched satellite has achieved stable orbit but is not believed to have transmitted data back to Earth, U.S. sources said of a launch that has so far failed to convince experts that Pyongyang has significantly advanced its rocket technology. Sunday's launch of what North Korea said was an earth observation satellite angered the country's neighbors and the United States, which called it a missile test. It followed Pyongyang's fourth nuclear test in January. "It's in a stable orbit now. They got the tumbling under control," a U.S. official said on Tuesday. That is unlike the North's previous satellite, launched in 2012, which never stabilized, the official said. However, the new satellite was not thought to be transmitting, another source added. [Satellite]
• Peace & Planet: Mobilization for a Nuclear-Free, Peaceful, Just, and Sustainable World
  Join Us to Build a Nuclear-Free, Peaceful, Just, and Sustainable World! Nuclear abolition connects deeply with struggles to end and prevent wars, increase peace, and achieve economic and environmental justice in our local communities and around the world. Learn more and get involved! [Nuclear weapons] [Disarmament]
• Press Release [on satellite launch]
  Australia - DPRK Friendship and Cultural Society
  9th February 2016 As to be expected, and led by the U.S there has been mass condemnation by major powers of the recent satellite launch by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). The satellite launched on Sunday the 7th of February 2016 was done so in accordance with international law and under the UN convention of the right for any country to explore space in a peaceful manner. As part of the launch preparation, the DPRK alerted a number of international organisations including the Geneva based International Telecommunication Union. Shooting from the hip and as a further appeasement to the U.S, our Foreign Minister Julie Bishop also joined this chorus of condemnation by threatening further sanctions against the DPRK, targeting both individuals and organisations. The UN convention on the right of every country to explore space for peaceful purposes has to be based on equality, not for powerful ones to dictate to smaller ones. [Satellite] [International Law]
• McCully’s Condemnation of Satellite Launch Sadly Predictable
  Press Release: NZ DPRK Society
  Tuesday, 9 February 2016, 9:41 am 8 February 2016 Foreign Minister Murray McCully’s condemnation of North Korea’s launch of an earth observation satellite was predictable - he never strays far from American guidance. It was also sadly short-sighted. As a small country it is in our long-term interest to defend the norms of international law, not condone their violation. The centrepiece of international law has to be the equality of nations. We cannot have one law for powerful countries and another for small ones. Satellites are an important, indeed essential, part of the modern scientific environment. They have been launched by a large number of countries, including South Korea. Why condemn only North Korea? Mr McCully’s repetition of the argument that the satellite launch employed ‘ballistic missile technology’ is disingenuous. All satellites are launched by ballistic rockets, but a satellite carrier rocket is not a missile. There are distinct and important differences. However, the same principles of the norms of international law apply to missiles. Many countries test and deploy missiles, including the United States, Russia, China, India, and South Korea. We may well think that missiles, along with strategic bombers and nuclear weapons, should be banned but this must happen on the basis of equality. All countries should be equal before the law. Condemning one country, North Korea, for doing what other countries do just because that aligns with American foreign policy takes New Zealand down a slippery slope, to our detriment. As a small country it is vital that New Zealand upholds the principles of international law because they offer us the best, and enduring, protection in a volatile global environment. [Satellite] [International Law] [NZ]
• DPRK's satellite launch successful: S. Korea
  Xinhua, February 9, 2016 South Korea's defense ministry said Tuesday that a satellite, launched two days earlier by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), had successfully flied into orbit. The DPRK's state media said Sunday that the country had successfully put a Kwangmyongsong-4 Earth observation satellite into space aboard a Kwangmyongsong rocket about nine minutes and 46 seconds after lift-off at 9:30 a.m. local time. Confirming the DPRK announcement, the defense ministry said the rocket went through normal separation of three stages, and that the satellite had been put into orbit normally. The rocket was fired at 9:30 a.m., and two minutes later, the first stage was separated and fell in waters off South Korea's northeast coast. Right after the separation, the first stage was exploded into some 270 fragments with self-destructor to prevent South Korea from discovering the first stage and assessing it, the ministry said. The first stage landed in drop zones, of which the DPRK had already informed the International Maritime Organization. The second stage was estimated to have fallen off the Philippine's east coast, about 2,380 km far away from the DPRK's main Tongchang-ri rocket base in its west coast. The ministry said the Kwangmyongsong-4 satellite was put into space nine minutes 29 seconds after the blast-off, faster than the DPRK's flight time by 17 seconds. [Satellite]
• 'NK satellite successfully placed into orbit:' Defense Ministry
  The satellite North Korea launched Sunday has been put into orbit, the Defense Ministry confirmed Tuesday. But CNN reported that the Kwangmyongsong-4 satellite is "tumbling" and incapable of functioning in any useful way, quoting a senior U.S. defense official. The international community has condemned Sunday's rocket launch, seeing it as a covert test of the reclusive regime's intercontinental ballistic missile technology. The firing follows a purported hydrogen bomb test last month. According to the Defense Ministry's examination of the launch, the North is presumed to have a long-range missile with a 12,000-kilometer range. But Pyongyang still lacks the "re-entry" technology needed to bring the satellite back into the atmosphere, the ministry said. [Satellite]
• North Korea satellite 'tumbling in orbit,' U.S. official says
  By Ralph Ellis, K.J. Kwon, Tiffany Ap and Tim Hume, CNN Updated 0250 GMT (1050 HKT) February 9, 2016 | Video Source: CNN Story highlights NEW: Senior U.S. defense official says North Korea satellite "tumbling" in space North Korea celebrates rocket launch with fireworks, state broadcaster reports U.N. Security Council "strongly condemns" satellite launch, vows strict response (CNN)—The satellite North Korea fired into space on Sunday is "tumbling in orbit" and incapable of functioning in any useful way, a senior U.S. defense official told CNN. [Satellite] [Canard]
• North Korea’s Space Launch: An Initial Assessment
  By John Schilling 09 February 2016 At first glance, North Korea’s launch of an Unha Space Launch Vehicle (SLV) on February 7, 2016, looks very much like a repeat of its successful launch a little over three years ago. In fact, a close examination reveals that the North appears to have used some stock footage of the 2012 launch in its announcement this time around. But there are also images of a rocket launching from the new gantry that North Korea completed only last year. Moreover, the US Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) has released the orbital elements of two new bodies in stable orbits, with the identifiers “KMS-4” for the Kwangmyongsong-4 satellite and “Unha 3 R/B” for the launch vehicle’s upper stage rocket body.[1] In short, this is not a hoax. [Satellite]
• North Korea’s February 2016 Satellite Launch
  Feb 8, 2016 Q1: What did North Korea launch? A1: On the morning of February 7, North Korea launched an Unha-type rocket, headed due south. The rocket then apparently orbited an “earth observation satellite” called Kwangmyongsong-4 (lode star), reportedly weighing 200 kilograms, about twice the size of a satellite by the same name orbited in December 2012. Despite North Korea’s stated interest in a weather satellite to advance meteorological science, the test represents a significant indicator of both their capability and intentions to develop longer-range ballistic missiles. [Satellite] [ICBM]
• North Korea missile launch: what comes next?
  By Stephen Noerper Feb 8, 2016 A month and a day after conducting its fourth nuclear test, North Korea launched a multi-stage rocket carrying a 440-pound satellite. The launch of the Taepodong missile defied a United Nations ban, once again placing North Korea in direct defiance of international norms. The UN decried the launch as “deeply deplorable.” Japan’s Prime Minister Abe Shinzo called it “absolutely unacceptable,” and his ambassador to the United Nations, alongside those of the United States and South Korea, deemed it an “outrage.” ROK President Park Geun-Hye called it an “intolerable provocation.” The launch was widely expected, as North Korea had notified three UN agencies earlier that it would occur in the imminent future. The shock comes in the evident technological advances so soon after the nuclear test and the North’s direct affront to its main ally, China, which sent an emissary to dissuade Pyongyang’s leadership just days prior. The launch due south also raised concern as the rocket passed over Okinawa and discarded a stage near the Philippines. [Satellite] [Misconstruction] [China hope]
• UN convenes emergency meeting on DPRK's satellite launch
  Xinhua, February 8, 2016 A video grab taken on Feb. 7, 2016 from South Korean TV shows the news report on the launch of a long-range rocket by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), in Seoul, South Korea. The DPRK on Sunday launched a long-range rocket as planned, Yonhap news agency reported citing South Korea's defense authorities. A video grab taken on Feb. 7, 2016 from South Korean TV shows the news report on the launch of a long-range rocket by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), in Seoul, South Korea. The DPRK on Sunday launched a long-range rocket as planned, Yonhap news agency reported citing South Korea's defense authorities. [Xinhua] The UN Security Council began an emergency meeting on Sunday in response to the satellite launch by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), which violates relevant Security Council resolutions. The meeting, held behind closed doors, started at around 11:00 a.m. (1600 GMT) at the request of the United States, the Republic of Korea and Japan. [Satellite] [UNUS]
• N.Korea Rocket Launch Deemed Successful and Deplorable
  North Korea launched a long-range rocket Sunday, carrying what it said is a satellite in defiance of UN sanctions barring it from using ballistic missile technology. The rocket was launched Sunday morning from North Korea's Tongchang-ri satellite launching facility near the northwestern border with China. The rocket headed on a southward trajectory passing over Japan's southern Okinawa islands. [Satellite]
• Security Council condemns NK rocket launch
  The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) on Sunday strongly condemned North Korea's rocket launch and said it would soon "adopt a new resolution" with significant measures, various news outlets reported. "The members of the Security Council underscore that this launch, as well as any other DPRK launch that uses ballistic missile technology even if characterized as a satellite launch or a space launch vehicle, contribute to the DPRK's nuclear weapon delivery system and is a serious violation of the Security Council resolutions," Venezuelan U.N. Ambassador Rafael Dario Ramirez Carreno, the council's president, was quoted as saying after the closed-door meeting. China, Pyongyang's ally, and the 14 other council members backed the statement during an emergency meeting. The closed-door meeting came at the request of South Korea, the U.S. and Japan, the three members of the six-party talks on the North's nuclear program, less than a day after the long-range rocket launch. [Satellite] [UNUS]
• Pyongyang’s Space Launch in Pictures
  By 38 North 08 February 2016 North Korea conducted the fourth launch of a space launch vehicle (SLV) on February 7, 2016 at 9 AM (PYT), the third from its Sohae Satellite Launching Station. While commercial satellite imagery from the date of the launch was not available in time to make a judgment that it was imminent, ground and satellite pictures have subsequently become available clearly demonstrating that the launch was about to and did occur. [Satellite]
• DPRK announces successful satellite launch
  Xinhua, February 7, 2016 The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) on Sunday successfully launched a Kwangmyongsong-4 satellite, the Korean Central Television (KCTV) reported. A video grab taken on Feb. 7, 2016 from South Korean TV shows the news report on the launch of a long-range rocket by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), in Seoul, South Korea. The DPRK on Sunday launched a long-range rocket as planned, Yonhap news agency reported citing South Korea's defense authorities. [Photo/Xinhua] The earth observation satellite blasted off at 9:00 a.m. local time (0030 GMT) from the Sohae Space Center in Cholsan County, North Phyongan Province, and later entered the target orbit, said the KCTV. DPRK's top leader Kim Jong Un signed the order to launch the satellite on Saturday and the KCTV disclosed photos of his signature. The satellite is going round the polar orbit at 494.6 km perigee altitude and 500 km apogee altitude at a 97.4-degree angle of inclination, with a cycle of 94 minutes and 24 seconds, said a statement issued by National Aerospace Development Administration (NADA) of the DPRK and carried by the official news agency KCNA. The successful launch marks "an epochal event" in developing the country's science, technology, economy and defense capability by "legitimately exercising the right to use space for independent and peaceful purposes," the statement stressed. The launch came only nine days ahead of the "Day of the Shining Star," the birthday of the DPRK's late leader Kim Jong Il, and is seen as part of the events to celebrate the anniversary. [Satellite]
• N. Korea fires long-range rocket
  A South Korean Army soldier looks at a television screen showing the Korean Central Television special broadcast on North Korea's rocket launch, in Seoul on Feb. 7, 2016. / Yonhap North claims satellite enters ordit; South also indicates launch was successful By Yi Whan-woo, Jun Ji-hye North Korea launched a long-range rocket in what seems to be an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), Sunday, despite the international community's continuous warnings. The defiant move came about a month after it carried out the fourth nuclear test on Jan. 6, raising further military tension in the Korean Peninsula as well as in the international society. "North Korea fired a long-range missile at 9:30 a.m. from its launch site in Dongchang-ri," the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said in a statement. The communist state later announced that it succeeded in putting the newly developed earth observation satellite "Kwangmyongsong-4" into its orbit. The JCS also said the North's launch seemed to be successful. [Satellite] [Misconstruction]
• North Korea Launches Rocket Seen as Cover for a Missile Test
  By Choe Sang-Hun Feb. 6, 2016 An object rising above North Korean territory as seen from the Chinese border city of Dandong on Sunday. Credit Kyodo, via Reuters SEOUL, South Korea — Defying warnings of tougher sanctions from Washington, North Korea launched a rocket on Sunday that Western experts believe is part of a program to develop intercontinental ballistic missile technologies. The rocket blasted off from Tongchang-ri, the North’s main satellite launch site near its northwestern border with China, a spokesman for the South Korean Defense Ministry said. President Park Geun-hye of South Korea called an emergency meeting of top national security advisers on Sunday to address the launch, her office said. South Korea, the United States and Japan also requested an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council. In Washington, Secretary of State John Kerry called the launch a “major provocation, threatening not only the security of the Korean Peninsula, but that of the region and the United States as well.” Susan E. Rice, the national security adviser, said it was “a flagrant violation of multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions.” [Satellite] [Misconstruction]
• North Korea launches ‘satellite,’ sparks fears about long-range missile program
  The trail of a flying object after it soared into the air above North Korean territory is seen from the Chinese border city of Dandong on Feb. 7, around 8:34 a.m. local time. North Korea launched a long-range rocket carrying what it has said is a satellite. (Reuters) By Anna Fifield February 6 at 10:20 PM ? TOKYO — North Korea on Sunday declared that it had successfully put an “earth observation satellite” into orbit under the direct orders of leader Kim Jong Un, and said it planned to launch “many more.” Both the South Korean defense ministry and the Pentagon said that the rocket, launched at 9 a.m. North Korean time from a launch pad near the Chinese border, appeared to have successfully reached space. The United States, Japan and South Korea immediately condemned the launch, a move widely seen as another step toward North Korea mastering the technology for making a missile capable of striking the mainland United States. The U.N. Security Council called an emergency meeting for later Sunday to discuss how to respond to the country’s latest provocation. [Satellite] [Misconstruction] [Media]
• McCully condemns North Korean launch
  Foreign Affairs Minister Murray McCully is condemning North Korea's launch of a long-range rocket. A picture taken from North Korean TV and released by South Korean news agency Yonhap showing North Korea's rocket launch of earth observation satellite Kwangmyongsong-4. Photo: AFP / North Korean TV via Yonhap North Korea had notified United Nations agencies in advance that it intended to put an earth observation satellite into orbit. The launch was condemned by Japan, South Korea and the United States, amid fears the North is developing nuclear weapons capable of reaching the US mainland. Mr McCully said the launch went against the UN Security Council resolutions demanding that North Korea cease any launches using ballistic missile technology. He said the government would work with other Security Council members on an appropriate response to the launch. [Satellite]
• This U.S. missile is about to get a ship-killing upgrade
  By Thomas Gibbons-Neff February 5 ? Launched from the USS John Paul Jones, a Standard Missile-6 demonstrated its ability to intercept ballistic missiles in their final seconds of flight during live fire tests July 28-Aug. 1, 2015. (Photo: Missile Defense Agency In an apparent move to show how serious the Pentagon is about countering conventional threats such as Russia and China, Secretary of Defense Ashton B. Carter announced Wednesday that the U.S. Navy would get a new ship-killing missile. The SM-6 is a vertically launched system fired from the deck of destroyers and cruisers. The missile was designed and fielded to intercept ballistic missiles in flight while they are passing through the upper atmosphere, but now, with Carter’s announcement, the SM-6 will be upgraded to defeat enemy ships. “It makes the SM-6 basically a twofer,” said Carter to an audience of sailors in San Diego. “[It] can shoot down airborne threats. And now you can attack and destroy a ship at long range with the very same missile.” [Missile]
• Countdown to Launch: Tanker Trucks Spotted at Rocket Fuel/Oxidizer Bunkers
  By Michelle 05 February 2016 New commercial satellite imagery of the Sohae Satellite Launching Station (“Tongchang-dong”) from February 3 and 4 shows the arrival of tanker trucks at the launch pad, specifically at the old fuel/oxidizer bunkers. Contrary to recent reports, the presence of these tankers more likely indicates the filling of fuel/oxidizer tanks within the bunkers than the fueling of the space launch vehicle (SLV). In the past, such activity has occurred 1-2 weeks prior to a launch event and would be consistent with North Korea’s announced launch window of February 8 through 24. [Satellite]
• China ends emergency monitoring following DPRK nuclear test
  Xinhua, January 13, 2016 The Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP) has ended the emergency radiation monitoring following the nuclear test conducted by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), saying the test had no impact on China. DPRK announced on Jan. 6 that it had tested a hydrogen bomb. The MEP then launched its second-highest level of emergency response, monitoring radiation levels along the country's northeast border. The checks found radiation to be within the normal range, and no artificial radioactive nuclides were detected in air samples, according to the MEP. Routine monitoring of air, water, soil and fallout will continue, the MEP said. [Test]
• Washington, Beijing play the blame game over N. Korean nukes, rocket launch
  Posted on : Feb.5,2016 19:03 KST The continuing spat between the two powers suggests that neither has the means to prevent the North from conducting its planned long-range rocket launch The US and China, which previously went back and forth over who was to blame for North Korea’s fourth nuclear test on Feb. 6, are now arguing over who was “slapped” by North Korea after its recent long-range rocket launch announcement. The debate suggests that the gulf between Washington and Beijing over the North Korean nuclear program and long-range rocket issue is poised to deepen further. US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Russel responded on Feb. 2 to North Korea’s announced plans for a “satellite launch” by saying it “would be an unmistakable slap in the face to those who argue that you just need to show patience and dialogue with the North Koreans, but not sanctions,” the Associated Press reported on Feb. 3. The statement was a clear jab at China, which has balked at stronger sanctions and called for more dialogue on the North Korean nuclear issue. It also echoed comments made by US Secretary of State John Kerry the day after the test, in which he publicly discussed telling Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi in a telephone call that Beijing’s approach was not working and that there could be no more “business as usual.” Analysts read the comments as a complaint over Beijing’s failure to use its leverage to pressure Pyongyang - as well as an attempt to deflect criticisms against the US by blaming Beijing for not preventing Pyongyang from raising tensions. China quickly countered the “slap” claims by arguing that the real slap was on Washington. [Test] [China hope] [China confrontation] [Satellite]
• Threats of sanctions, Chinese diplomacy seem unable to prevent N. Korea rocket launch
  Posted on : Feb.5,2016 19:09 KST North Korea’s Sohae launch site in Dongchang Village, North Pyongan Province, shown in a satellite image taken on Feb. 1 by Airbus Defence and Space and made public by the North Korea affairs website 38 North on Feb. 3. (38 North, Yonhap News) As Pyongyang proceeds with launch plans, the South Korean military vows to shoot down any rocket that enters South Korean territory In line with its notice, North Korea is reportedly proceeding with preparations to launch a rocket to place the terrestrial observation satellite called Gwangmyeongseong into orbit between Feb. 8 and Feb. 25. “The only way to prevent North Korea from coming to the wrong conclusion is for the UN to use tough sanctions to force the North to recognize that it cannot survive unless it gives up its nuclear weapons program,” South Korean President Park Geun-hye said on Feb. 4, reiterating the need for the international community - and the UN Security Council in particular - to impose harsh sanctions on North Korea. “I said everything I had to say, but for now there’s no way to know what the outcome will be,” said Wu Dawei, China’s special representative for Korean Peninsula affairs and the chair of the six-party talks, upon arriving at Beijing Capital International Airport on Thursday after wrapping up his visit to North Korea. “Indications have been detected recently that North Korea is preparing to launch a long-range missile, with more movement of vehicles at the launch facility at Dongchang Village, North Pyongan Province,” a senior official with the South Korean military said on Thursday. “Considering that there is not much time remaining before the launch, we are assuming that the missile is on the launch pad at Dongchang Village,” the official said while declining to provide any details. Since the launch pad at Dongchang Village is protected by an environmental cover, satellite imagery is reportedly no longer able to confirm the presence of a rocket. “North Korea’s plan to launch a long-range missile in addition to its nuclear test is an intolerable threat to peace on the Korean Peninsula and throughout the world. Since this is intended to threaten South Koreans and to create extreme fear, we need the international community to actively cooperate with us in our response,” said Blue House Press Secretary Kim Sung-woo on Thursday, speaking on behalf of President Park. [Test] [Hysteria]
• Shutdown of Kaesong Complex a possible response to North Korean rocket launch?
  Posted on : Feb.5,2016 19:11 KST Vehicles leaving the Kaesong Industrial Complex drive across Unification Bridge in Paju, Gyeonggi Province. On Jan. 11 the government announced that, in response to North Korea’s recent nuclear test, it would limit the number of South Korean workers permitted to enter the complex. (by Kim Myoung-jin, staff photographer) The South Korean government warns of “severe consequences” if the North proceeds with the launch, and a shutdown hasn’t been ruled out The first response that the South Korean government made after North Korea announced that it would be launching a long-range rocket was to warn the North that it would face “severe consequences.” The same expression was used by South Korean Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn; Cho Tae-yong, deputy chief of the Blue House’s office of national security; Ministry of Unification Spokesperson Jeong Joon-hee; and South Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesman Cho Joon-hyuk. This raises the question of what these “severe consequences” might be. The South has already resumed propaganda broadcasts on loudspeakers located on the DMZ. Immediately after the nuclear test, South Korea reduced the number of workers staying at the Kaesong Industrial Complex to the minimum number possible, but it explained this as a measure to ensure the safety of South Korean citizens, and not as sanctions. Trade between North and South Korea has been suspended for seven years, following the May 24Measures, a response to the sinking of the South Korean Navy’s Cheonan corvette. This is why the South Korean government modified “severe consequences” with the phrase “from the international community.” [Kaesong] [Satellite] [American dominance] [Tribute]
• [Analysis] Top Chinese diplomat has little chance of prevent N. Korean rocket launch
  Posted on : Feb.4,2016 17:21 KST Wu Dawei, China’s Special representative for Korean Peninsula affairs (left), speaks with Park Sung-il, Deputy Director of the North Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ North American Affairs Bureau, after arriving at Pyongyang International Airport, Feb. 2. (Yonhap News) Experts are divided over whether or not Beijing can persuade the North to cancel its plans to launch a satellite, an act that would further ratchet up tensions in NE Asia On the afternoon of Feb. 2, Wu Dawei, China’s special representative for Korean Peninsula affairs and the chair of the six-party talks, paid a surprise visit to Pyongyang, amid growing indications that North Korea could soon be launching a long-range rocket. Wu’s visit is thought to be an attempt to prevent North Korea from launching the rocket and to pave the way for negotiation and dialogue that can ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula. During the regular briefing by its Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson on Jan. 28, the Chinese government called on relevant countries to “refrain from extreme measures and to avoid continuing the vicious cycle of tensions.” But late in the evening of Feb. 2 and in the early morning of Feb. 3, it came out that North Korea had notified UN bodies, including the International Maritime Organization, about its plans to launch a terrestrial observation satellite called Gwangmyeongseong. The timing is peculiar. Will China be able to convince North Korea to delay or cancel its plans to launch the satellite? [Satellite] [China NK]
• N. Korea’s recent actions break precedent, suggest importance of domestic considerations
  Posted on : Feb.4,2016 17:19 KST In the past, nuclear tests usually followed rocket launches; the reversed order this time suggests that internal unity outweighs risk of sanctions for Pyongyang North Korea‘s Unha-3 rocket lifts off from the Sohae launching station in Tongchang-ri, North Korea, Dec. 12, 2012. North Korea’s approach to its planned launch of the Gwangmyeongseong earth observation satellite is different from similar efforts in the past. Typically, the country has followed a procedure of delivering an advance message and notifying international organizations, and then performing a nuclear test once the rocket has been launched and sanctions have been imposed by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). This time around, the fourth nuclear test came first, on Jan. 6. That test also marked a break from precedent, with no reported prior notification to China or the US. No official announcement was made for the rocket launch plan, nor was it reported by the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), North Korea’s official news service, or other North Korean media. There was only a notification to the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that an “earth observation satellite” would be launched between Feb. 8 and 25. Also unusual was the decision to announce the launch plans amid ongoing discussions of UNSC sanctions in response to the nuclear test. [Test] [Satellite]
• S.Korea not to tolerate DPRK's missile launch
  Xinhua, February 4, 2016 South Korean President Park Geun-hye said on Thursday that she will not tolerate a launch by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) of long-range ballistic missile. "North Korea (DPRK)'s announcement of long-range missile launch plan, after conducing nuclear test, is an act to threaten peace of the Korean peninsula and the world that will never be tolerated," Park said in a statement read by Kim Sung-Woo, senior presidential press secretary. Park's statement came as Pyongyang informed international organizations Tuesday of its plan to put what it called a Kwangmyongsong earth observation satellite into orbit between Feb. 8 and 25. The rocket launch declaration was made about a month after the DPRK's claim on Jan. 6 that it had tested its first H-bomb, the fourth in total of its nuclear detonations. The DPRK blasted off the three-stage Unha-3 rocket to deliver the Kwangmyongsong-3 satellite into orbit in Dec. 2012, two months before staging its third nuclear test. It was the first successful launch of a satellite into orbit by the DPRK. Park said that the DPRK's repeated acts of conducting provocations and raising tensions aimed to threaten South Korean people and maximize their fears, stressing the need for cooperation with the international community. The DPRK's announcement of rocket launch plan, despite the ongoing discussions on new UN sanctions, reflected a fact that Pyongyang is never scared of UN restrictions at all, Park said. The president noted that the only way to stop the DPRK's misjudgment is to tighten UN sanctions and make the DPRK recognize that it cannot survive unless the country gives up its nuclear program. [China IR] [Satellite]
• China to launch nearly 40 Beidou navigation satellites
  Xinhua, February 4, 2016 China plans to launch nearly 40 Beidou navigation satellites in the next five years to support its global navigation and positioning network, a spokesperson said Wednesday. A Long March-3C carrier rocket carrying the 21st satellite for the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System lifts off from Xichang Satellite Launch Center,southwest China's Sichuan Province, Feb. 1, 2016. (Photo: Xinhua/Xue Yubin) By the end of 2018, another 18 satellites will be put into orbit for Beidou's navigation service, said Ran Chengqi, spokesperson of the Beidou Navigation Satellite System and also director of the China Satellite Navigation Office. Ran said the positioning accuracy of the Beidou Navigation Satellite System inside China has reached five meters, with the improvement of a software algorithm and other technology development. [Satellite] [Double standards] [GPS]
• China Caught on Back Foot by N.Korean Rocket Plans
  Chief Chinese nuclear negotiator Wu Dawei arrived in Pyongyang on Tuesday without realizing that North Korea was going to announce a plan to launch a space rocket, a high-level source in Beijing said Wednesday. "Wu wouldn't have wanted to hear the news while he was in Pyongyang," the source said. The North in January conducted a nuclear test without notifying Beijing beforehand, in another sign of deep fissures in their alliance. But China seems to have decided to swallow its anger, at least publicly. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang expressed "grave concern" over the North's announcement and called for restraint from "all sides." But he added Wu was only in Pyongyang for the purpose of "exchanging views with the North Korea side over the current situation of the Korean Peninsula." He said China "cannot stop" the North from attempting to launch a rocket. "China will engage in contact and coordination with each related side, and play a constructive role in maintaining the peace and stability of the peninsula and this region," Lu said. The formulaic response makes it seem unlikely that Beijing would back much tougher international sanctions against the North, even supposing there was room for them. [China NK] [Satellite]
• N.Korea 'Building H-Bomb Plant'
  A U.S. think tank claims North Korea is building a new nuclear facility to separate isotopes from spent fuel, including tritium, a key ingredient for hydrogen bombs. The Institute for Science and International Security in a report Monday said satellite photos of the North's Yongbyon nuclear facility taken on Jan. 25 show "external construction signatures" at the site. "The signatures visible through a historical analysis of satellite imagery are consistent with an isotope separation facility, including tritium separation," the institute said. "This assessment is shared not only by an expert ISIS consulted but also by a government expert we consulted who has long experience in assessing activities at the Yongbyon site." It added that using tritium could enable North Korea to build a more powerful nuclear bomb than with uranium or plutonium. [Intelligence] [Spin]
• [Editorial] North Korea ought to immediately stop committing provocations
  Posted on : Feb.4,2016 12:09 KST North Korea‘s Unha-3 rocket lifts off from the Sohae launching station in Tongchang-ri, North Korea, Dec. 12, 2012. North Korea’s notification to international bodies on Feb. 2 about its plans to launch a long-range rocket with a satellite payload is a new provocation. It is also an obstinate act of defiance against the international community, which has been talking about imposing even tougher sanctions against North Korea following its abrupt nuclear test on Jan. 6. North Korea ought to immediately stop committing provocations involving long-range rockets, which will obviously only worsen the situation. The North contends that peaceful development of space technology is a legal right of sovereign states that is recognized by international law. In its notification on Feb. 2, Pyongyang also said that it would be launching a terrestrial observation satellite called Gwangmyeongseong between Feb. 8 and Feb. 25, in line with the regime’s space development plan. But in terms of its technical specifications, a long-range rocket - the launch vehicle used to put satellites into orbit - is virtually identical to an ICBM (intercontinental ballistic rocket). Supplemented with the technology to insert a nuclear warhead back into the atmosphere, such a rocket could become a strategic weapon aimed at the US or other countries. [Satellite] [Provocation]
• NK readying long-range missile launch, Defense Ministry says
  Pyongyang is readying to launch a long-range missile at its Dongchang-ri base in the northwest, according to the Defense Ministry, Thursday. Ministry spokesman Moon Sang-gyun did not provide details, saying he was neither able to confirm nor deny a report from Japan's NHK that a mobile launcher loaded with a ballistic missile was seen moving along the east coast. NHK television, citing unidentified diplomatic sources, reported Thursday that it had been "confirmed that a mobile launch pad in North Korea's eastern coastal area was on the move" and that a ballistic missile was on the launch pad. Other media reports said the North was expected to complete loading the liquid-fuel on Sunday. [Satellite] [Misconstruction]
• Countdown to Launch: New Activity at the Sohae Horizontal Processing Building
  By 38 North 03 February 2016 Editor’s Note: With North Korea’s recent notifications to the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and International Telecommunication Union (ITU) that it would launch an “earth observation satellite” between February 8 and February 25, 38 North has initiated a series of brief imagery analysis updates to closely follow developments at the North’s Sohae Satellite Launching Station (“Tongchang-dong”). This is the first of these updates. Activity at the Horizontal Processing Building Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates that the level of activity at the Horizontal Processing Building at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station (“Tongchang-dong”) is suggestive of preparations for a space launch and supports North Korea’s announced launch window of February 8 through 24. During past launches, this building has been used to receive the various rocket stages. Once received, they are assembled in the horizontal position to test all connections, perform final testing of subsystems and prepare the stages for mounting on the launch pad. Specifically, on February 1, there are nine vehicles present, of which two are likely to be buses. Compared with only one vehicle present on January 25, this level of activity is similar to that seen prior to the previous launch in 2012 and is suggestive of launch preparations. [Satellite]
• DPRK notifies UN agency it will launch satellite
  Xinhua, February 3, 2016 The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has notified the International Maritime Organization (IMO) of its plans to launch a satellite later this month, media reports said Tuesday. Photo provided by Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on May 3, 2015 shows top leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) Kim Jong Un (R, front) inspecting the newly-built General Satellite Control and Command Center of the National Aerospace Development Administration (NADA) recently. [Photo/Xinhua] The DPRK notified the London-based UN agency that it will launch an Earth observation satellite between Feb. 8 and Feb. 25, according to a Yonhap report. The DPRK also notified the the Geneva-based International Telecommunications Union (ITU) of its plan, according to Japan's Kyodo News. The DPRK side has not yet confirmed these reports. [Satellite]
• N.Korea Announces Rocket Launch
  North Korea has notified international organizations of a plan to launch a space rocket carrying a satellite into orbit, Kyodo News reported Tuesday. The launch is widely seen as a veiled test of intercontinental ballistic missile technology. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un looks at rockets at a newly-built satellite facility last year, in this photo released by the Rodong Sinmun (file photo). North Korean leader Kim Jong-un looks at rockets at a newly-built satellite facility last year, in this photo released by the Rodong Sinmun (file photo). The International Maritime Organization confirmed it received notice from North Korea "regarding the launch of earth observation satellite 'Kwangmyongsong' between 8-25 February." A government source here said the likeliest date is former North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's birthday on Feb. 16. A Japanese government official said the North notified international organizations that the launch would occur between 7 a.m. and noon on the day of the launch. It will be the North's second launch of a space rocket since 2012. The first rocket was also supposed to carry a communication satellite dubbed Kwangmyongsong-3 into orbit, but the satellite was probably a dummy. The North announced the launch plan the very day when chief Chinese nuclear negotiator Wu Dawei was visiting Pyongyang. "Wu probably visited Pyongyang to persuade the North to abandon the plan," a diplomatic source speculated. The launch would challenge the international community head-on again just over a month after it violated the UN Security Council resolutions by conducting a nuclear test. It is unclear how far preparations have progressed. [Satellite]
• North Korea notifies UN agencies it will launch satellite between Feb. 8-25
  North Korea has notified the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that it is planning to send a rocket carrying a satellite into space between Feb.8-25, increasing concerns that it is making preparations to further violate U.N. resolutions with the long-range rocket launch, according to various reports Wednesday. The North on Tuesday sent a letter to the IMO, a U.N specialized agency, that its "Earth observation satellite" will be launched between 7 a.m. and noon Pyongyang time. In the letter, sent under the name of Jon Ki-chol, director-general of the North's Maritime Administration, the North said that the launch of the "Earth observation satellite ‘Kwangmyongsong' is pursuant to the national space development program." The North also provided coordinates for areas where the rocket stages are expected to fall -- the first in the West Sea, the fairing in the East China Sea and the second stage in the Philippine Sea. An earlier report by Japan's Kyodo News said that the International Telecommunications Union also received a similar notification from the North. Various reports and satellite imagery has shown increased activities at the North's Dongchang-ri site. [Satellite]
• North Korean satellites and rocket science
  Deconstructing the hysteria over the satellite launch that now appears imminent
  Tim Beal
  February 3rd, 2016 The press has again been running hot recently over stories that North Korea is about to launch, or attempt to launch, another rocket. It brings to mind the run-up to the 70th anniversary of the Workers’ Party of Korean in October, when an allegedly imminent satellite launch was widely bracketed with a nuclear test and described as a “threat”; thus the Korea Times (“South vows stern action against NK threats”) and the Hankyoreh (North Korea sounding off with missile and nuclear threats). The Chosun Ilbo was particularly agitated by the prospect of what it described as a test of a ‘long-range missile’ and warned of “dire consequences.” However, the South’s ire was never put into the context of the South being miffed that the North beat it (just) in the race to launch a satellite. Moreover, the North did it on an entirely Korean-made rocket whereas the South’s was basically Russian – with two South Korean stages sitting atop the Russian first stage booster which provided the grunt. South Korea’s three other satellites, including the last, which went up March 26, 2015, are entirely launched by the Russian on a commercial basis. What gets the press acreage is the confusion, sometimes through ignorance but often surely deliberate, between a rocket that launches a satellite … and one which is designed to deliver a missile However, the North-South competition is seldom mentioned. What gets the press acreage is the confusion, sometimes through ignorance but often surely deliberate, between a rocket that launches a satellite, usually known as a space launch vehicle (SLV), or a carrier rocket, and one which is designed to deliver a missile. A little elementary physics clarifies the situation. [Satellite] [Misconstruction]
• Leaking nuclear umbrella
  By Oh Young-jin Updated : 2016-02-02 14:20 Is South Korea still under the protection of the U.S. nuclear umbrella? The concept is outdated because of the end of the cold war and needs an urgent update or should be thrown out. It originated from the U.S.-U.S.S.R. confrontation when the two superpowers developed, produced and possessed so many nuclear weapons that they could annihilate the world many times over. So the theory goes, if either nation started a nuclear attack, both of them, as well as the rest of the world, would end up in ruins. That was so-called MAD or mutually assured destruction. The South has given up its nuclear weapons development by and large in return a security guarantee by the U.S. Now, the situation has changed. First, the Soviet Union no longer exists but a new nuclear threat is emerging in North Korea, an impoverished pariah state that can't feed its own population without outside help but is determined to develop its own nuclear arsenal. It has now conducted four nuclear tests, which peaked with the Jan. 6 test that it claims involves the detonation of a thermonuclear device or H-bomb. It's anybody's guess how large a nuclear arsenal it has. Of course, it has withdrawn from all international obligations regarding nuclear development and proliferation. Its stated goal is joining the U.S. and China as a nuclear state. The South feels insecure because of the nuclear threat by the North and, more importantly, the lack of a counterpunch it pack have to prevent the North from using nuclear weapons against it. Thereby, the next question for the South is whether the U.S. nuclear umbrella is good enough to cope with this fast-changing status. Obviously, it's not. [Nuclear umbrella] [Nuclearisation]
• China launches key satellite in Beidou navigation
  Xinhua, February 2, 2016 China put a new-generation satellite into orbit to support its global navigation and positioning network at 3:29 pm Monday. A Long March-3C carrier rocket carrying the 21st satellite for the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System lifts off from Xichang Satellite Launch Center,southwest China's Sichuan Province, Feb. 1, 2016.[Photo/Xinhua] A Long March-3C carrier rocket carrying the 21st satellite for the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System lifts off from Xichang Satellite Launch Center, southwest China's Sichuan Province, Feb. 1, 2016. [Photo/Xinhua] Launched from Xichang satellite launch center in the southwestern province of Sichuan, the satellite was aboard a Long March-3C carrier rocket. It is the 21st satellite in the Beidou Navigation Satellite System, and takes China one step closer to providing an alternative to the United States' GPS system. The first 16 Beidou satellites formed a network that only covered China and nearby regions. The first new-generation satellite in the series, or the 17th in total, was launched in March last year to help the network transition from regional to global coverage. Once in orbit, Monday's satellite, the fifth of the new generation, will join its four predecessors in testing inter-satellite crosslinks and a new navigation-signalling system that will set the framework and technical standards for global coverage. According to Xiang Libin, commander-in-chief of the Beidou project, the latest satellite is crucial to integrating the two signal systems for regional and global navigation and switching between the two. [Satellite] [GPS]
• The Challenge of Predicting Future North Korean Nuclear Tests
  By 38 North 01 February 2016 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu. Summary The latest North Korean nuclear test at the Punggye-ri test site apparently surprised the international community as there were few indicators seen before it took place. Unlike the 2013 test, when heavy activity was seen in the weeks prior to that test, very little preparation activity was visible leading up to the 2016 test. This is because the North Koreans have continued to improve their operational security and concealment procedures, limiting what is visible to commercial imaging satellites. [Test] [Intelligence]
• S.Koreans Must Discuss Acquiring Nuclear Arms
  The foreign ministers of the U.S. and China failed to reach agreement on Wednesday on how to deal with North Korea after its recent nuclear test. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Washington and Beijing agreed on the "need for a UN resolution" to impose sanctions but failed to provide details. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi claimed that sanctions against the North should not be the final goal and insisted China continues to stand behind the policy of engaging Pyongyang in dialogue. This makes it quite clear that China will not tighten the noose around North Korea's neck by limiting trade to the point where it really hurts. North Korea has responded to each and every UN sanction by conducting a nuclear or missile test. It has vowed never to give up its nuclear ambitions, and there is no chance that it will buckle under further sanctions. Now that China has more or less promised to sit on its hands, Pyongyang will push ahead full steam in developing a nuclear warhead small enough to mount on a missile and submarine-launched ballistic missiles. [Nuclear weapons] [Nuclearisation]
• Korea to Launch Fully Homegrown Rocket Next Year
  Korea hopes to launch its first fully homegrown space rocket in December next year. Previous versions relied on parts from Russia, the last tested successfully in 2013. Korea Aerospace Research Institute President Cho Gwang-rae told reporters at the Naro Space Center in Goheung, South Jeolla Province last Thursday, "We're planning to launch an experimental rocket at this space center in December next year to test the engine of a space launch vehicle which we're developing for satellite launches and lunar probes." The rocket has been in development since 2010 with a budget of W1.96 trillion (US$1=W1,206). It will be a 47.2 m-long three-stage rocket with a payload of 1,500 kg. Its goal is to send a satellite into orbit about 600-800 km above the earth and a lunar probe and landing module to the Moon in 2020. The experimental rocket is expected to reach 229 km beyond the atmosphere. KARI is carrying out engine combustion tests at the space center to gauge performance in space. Some 150 scientists and engineers are being engaged in the development with the cooperation of private firms including Hanwha Techwin. "Every and each component is being manufactured by our own researchers, except for sensors and some components that are mass-produced," said Han Young-min of KARI. [SLV] [Double standards]
• North Korea preparing for a new rocket launch?
  Posted on : Jan.30,2016 18:51 KST 38 North, a website dedicated to North Korean affairs, stated that there was “a high level of uncertainty” about reports indicating that North Korea is preparing to launch a long-range missile from its Sohae launch site in Dongchang Village, North Pyongan Province. The above photo of Sohae, taken Jan. 25, reveals snow removal near a launch pad, people, and vehicles and equipment, which were not apparent in previous photos, but the website cautioned that this type of movement does not necessarily indicate that a launch is imminent. (Reuters, Yonhap News) Indications are that the North is getting ready to conduct a long-range rocket launch, but that it’s most likely for a satellite or space vehicle With multiple sightings of North Korean preparations to launch a long-range rocket, reports indicate that the projectile is more likely to be a space vehicle carrying a satellite than it is to be a ballistic missile. "The indications are that [North Korea is] preparing for some kind of launch," an official with the US Department of Defense told the AFP wire service on Jan. 28. "Could be for a satellite or a space vehicle - there are a lot of guesses.” The official added that there were no signs that the preparations were related to a ballistic missile launch. Noting that a rocket launch appeared to be imminent, another US official said, “Our concern is that when they do a space launch, it happens to be the same components that can be used in an ICBM [intercontinental ballistic missile].” [Satellite] [UNUS] [Double standards]
• The Testing of a DPRK Hydrogen Bomb and Sino-North Korean Relations
  Konstantin Asmolov
  Our analysis of the international response to North Korea’s test of a hydrogen bomb directs our attention to China’s position and US-China debates about “what to do and who to blame.” First, let’s look to the statement by Xinhua news agency on January 8. On the one hand, North Korea’s actions have been condemned, on the other hand, it was pointed out that “it was Washington’s antagonistic approach that pushed Pyongyang to carry on the development of nuclear weapons.” “The US military approach put Pyongyang in an acutely insecure position and encouraged the country to ignore the restrictions on non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. The DPRK, balancing on the brink of a nuclear war, really deserves international condemnation, as it seriously undermines the regional stability and peace in the world, might resort to desperate attempts of the country to improve its position in the fight against the USA.“ [Test] [China NK]
• North Korea’s Thermonuclear Test: Challenge to World or Path to Self-Preservation?
  Alexander Vorontsov | 31.01.2016 | 00:00 The year 2016 began on a worrisome note on the Korean peninsula. There has been yet another nuclear test by Pyongyang, which will have fairly long-term consequences, will trigger yet another censorious Security Council resolution with an expanded package of sanctions, and will also prompt stepped-up military activity in the region by the US, Japan, and South Korea. This will inevitably lead to a new cycle of burgeoning tension on and around the Korean peninsula. Pyongyang’s motives North Korea’s leaders are not frightened by the prospect of painful retaliatory actions – they are prepared to suffer even more than that in exchange for the right to strengthen their nation’s «nuclear deterrent forces». A series of official statements from Pyongyang leaves no doubt on this point. Explaining their decision, North Korea’s leaders again pointed to America’s unlawful practice of using military interventions to oust undesirable regimes in independent states. Refuting the fearsome predictions of Western politicians, Pyongyang insists: «We will not disseminate nuclear weapons, nor transfer the means or technology related to nuclear weapons. We will continue our efforts to denuclearize the world. Still valid are all proposals for preserving peace and stability on the peninsula and in northeast Asia, including the ones for ceasing our nuclear test and the conclusion of a peace treaty in return for a US halt to joint military exercises». [Test]

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JANUARY 2016

• N.Korea 'Preparing for Long-Range Missile Test'
  North Korea is preparing to launch a long-range ballistic missile, possibly within a week, the Japanese government believes. Kyodo News on Thursday quoted a Japanese government source as saying that analysis of recent satellite images shows movement of vehicles and people near the North's missile launch pad at Tongchang-ri, North Pyongan Province. The U.S. confirmed that preparations are taking place. "The indications are that they are preparing for some kind of launch," a US official said according to AFP. He added people on the ground seem to be readying for "a regular space launch." But the official added it is unclear whether the launch will go ahead. "Could be for a satellite or a space vehicle -- there are a lot of guesses. North Korea does this periodically, they move things back and forth. There’s nothing to indicate it’s ballistic missile related," he said. [Satellite] [Misconstruction]
• Suspicious Activity at North Korea’s Sohae Satellite Launching Station
  By 38 North 28 January 2016 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu Summary Recent commercial satellite imagery shows a range of low-level activities at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station (also referred to as “Tongchang-ri”)—at the launch pad, covered railway station, VIP housing area, launch control bunker and National Aerospace Development Administration (NADA) buildings and helipad—that indicate Pyongyang is in the early stages of preparation for launching a space launch vehicle (SLV). If that is the case, a rocket test in the coming week is unlikely. However, it is important to note that there is a high level of uncertainty about this judgment for a number of reasons and Pyongyang may be further along in its preparations. First, the gantry tower work platforms are covered by an environmental cover and are folded forward, obscuring any view of whether a SLV is inside or not. Second, the movable transfer structure could easily allow for stages to be assembled and transferred to the gantry tower during periods of darkness or heavy cloud cover. Moreover, since the entire launch pad area is now clear of snow, any movement by the structure cannot be determined. Third, commercial satellite imagery coverage of the test site is not continuous and therefore observers only have snapshots of activity at the launch pad. If North Korea follows previous pre-launch preparation practices, we would expect to see in the coming days increased site-wide activity, traffic at the fuel/oxidizer storage bunkers, activity at the launch pad and the presence of tracking equipment. Activity at Sohae also suggests a possible rocket engine test is under preparation at the vertical engine test stand. A recently completed large rail-mounted environmental structure large enough to shelter the first stage of rockets, such as the Unha space launch vehicle or the Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missile or a new engine of similar size, has been moved up to the test stand. While this may simply be testing the ability of the shelter to move it on the rails, a more likely alternative is that an engine test is being prepared. [Satellite]
• North Korea Could Be Preparing For Missile Test, Officials Say
  By Luis Martinez ·Jan 28, 2016, 6:33 PM ET U.S. officials say that activity at a North Korean missile testing facility could indicate that the country is planning a potential long-range missile test in the near future. The suspicions are based on overhead satellite imagery of the Sohae Satellite Launching Station on North Korea’s western coast. North Korea used the facility in December, 2012 to test a rocket it said had launched a satellite into earth orbit but which American officials described as a ruse to test intercontinental ballistic missile technology. U.S. analysis determined that North Korea failed to launch a third stage into orbit. One U.S. official says the recent activity detected at the Sohae facility includes the arrival of what could possibly be rocket fuel and possible missile components. The analysis is complicated by the extreme lengths North Korea has taken to hide activity at the launch site from American spy satellites. That includes building an underground rail head to hide what components might be arriving at the site. Also, a cover has been placed around the site’s launch gantry which makes it difficult to tell if missile parts are being stacked inside. The officials cautioned that while the activity could signal a possible missile test, it could also be that North Korea is simply testing some of its facilities at the launch site. One official said that if North Korea declares publicly that it is testing a satellite then it will likely issue a notice to airmen and mariners in advance of a test which would provide clues as to a possible launch date. A North Korean missile test would be seen as yet another provocative action by Kim Jong Un’s regime, especially three weeks after an underground nuclear test of what North Korea claimed was a hydrogen bomb. [Satellite] [Media]
• North Korea could conduct long-range missile launch in a week: report
  North Korea could launch a long-range missile within a week, Kyodo News Agency reported Wednesday. The report cited a Japanese government source wishing to remain unidentified, who said that satellite imagery analysis conducted over the past several days suggests that the North may be preparing to launch a ballistic missile from the Dongchang-ri launch site in the country's northwest. The source also reported that the launch could occur in about a week at the earliest but did not provide any further information. The U.S. Department of Defense declined comment on intelligence matters, but urged the North to refrain from any actions threatening regional stability. "While I won't discuss matters of intelligence, I will say that we urge North Korea to refrain from actions and speech that threaten regional peace and security and focus instead on taking concrete steps toward fulfilling its international commitments and obligations," Commander Bill Urban, a spokesman of the U.S. Department of Defense, was quoted as saying by Yonhap News Agency. "We are concerned that additional North Korean provocations could heighten tensions, lead to a cycle of escalation and threaten the peace and stability on the peninsula," he said. Firing a missile would add to international outrage over the North's Jan. 6 nuclear test. The U.N. Security Council is working on a new set of sanctions to impose on Pyongyang, and the U.S. is also working on unilateral sanctions to punish the regime. [Missile] [Canard]
• What is North Korea up to with its fourth nuclear test?
  By Sukjoon Yoon There have been three North Korean nuclear tests since 2009; they were primarily aimed at influencing the United States, together with its allies, South Korea and Japan, to change their North Korea policies. The fourth and latest test on Jan. 6 – supposedly an H-bomb though technical experts are unconvinced – was different in that it was also aimed at North Korea’s only important political ally, China. Worldwide reaction has focused on how China can and should use its influence to punish and restrain North Korea, without noticing how North Korea is gradually slipping the Chinese leash. Nevertheless, there is little prospect of new policies, from China or other interested parties. North Korea’s worldview Why is North Korea testing another nuclear device at this time? The answer is because Kim Jong-un sees an opportunity to expand his strategic autonomy with minimal blowback. US President Barack Obama’s policy of “strategic patience” effectively signals inaction on North Korean nuclear issues, and North Korea is aggrieved to be getting nothing from the US as Washington becomes more accommodating toward Cuba and Iran. China is engaged by security and economic problems, with the lowest economic growth in 26 years, and the election in Taiwan of a pro-independence president. Growing disharmony was also revealed by the last-minute cancellation of a Chinese tour by the North Korean musical group Moranbong in December 2015. China is expected to deal with the North Korean problem, but China is busy with President Xi Jinping’s ambitious plans to establish a “New Type of Great Power Relations” with the US, and intractable territorial disputes in the East and South China Seas (ESCSs): its response is unlikely to go beyond the stern words already uttered [Test] [China NK] [Byungjin]
• SK, US, China play ping pong with responsibility of responding to NK’s nuclear test
  Posted on : Jan.25,2016 17:12 KST President Park Geun-hye speaks during the joint 2016 policy report to the president by the Ministries of Foreign Affairs, National Defense, and Unification at the Blue House, Jan. 22. (provided by the Blue House) US, SK favor forceful sanctions, China stresses dialogue. Meanwhile, US President Obama and Chinese President Xi have both been mum on the issue The differences in Seoul’s, Washington’s, and Beijing’s ideas on how to respond to North Korea’s recent fourth nuclear test are coming into sharper relief. South Korea and the US’s calls for “forceful, comprehensive, and effective sanctions” are drawing an unenthusiastic response from China, while China’s idea of combining sanctions with efforts to ensure regional political stability and achieve dialogue and negotiation are failing to gain traction amid a hard-line climate in Seoul and Washington. The resulting situation is one where neither of the two key components to a response on the nuclear issue - sanctions on one hand, dialogue and negotiations on the other - is able to function. And as the ping pong game of passing the responsibility continues between the sides, the vacuum of leadership in managing the situation and finding a solution is stretching into the long term. More than seven years have passed since the six-party talks to resolve the North Korean issue were suspended in Dec. 2008. [Test]
• What drives Pyongyang’s nuclear demonstrations?
  21 January 2016 Author: Liang Tuang Nah, RSIS Shortly after North Korea detonated a nuclear device at 10am local time on 6 January 2016, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) proclaimed that the device was a hydrogen bomb, and that such devices served as defence against external enemies. While the Kim regime’s siege mentality should not be discounted, the defensive justification for periodic testing serves as a thin legitimising veneer for what are essentially domestic and negotiative drivers for nuclear demonstrations. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un makes a congratulatory visit to the Ministry of People's Armed Forces, the Korean Central News Agency reported, 10 January 2016. (Photo: AAP). Pyongyang already has sufficiently strong conventional deterrence. It has a strong military presence near the demilitarized zone with South Korea and Seoul is within range of a massive array of North Korean artillery. What’s more, North Korea’s soil has not been invaded since the 1950–1953 Korean War. With all this in mind, North Korea’s nuclear weapons look like overkill, suggesting the existence of other driving motivations. Looking back at North Korea’s second nuclear test in 2009, Evans Revere has retrospectively argued that the test was carried out to buttress nationalist sentiment and pride in the wake of the late Kim Jong-il’s debilitating stroke in 2008. As the then leader-in-waiting, Kim Jong-un lacked leadership experience and such a display of technical achievement provided a stable moral platform for him to assume leadership. The subsequent opposition to the blast from the United States and UN allowed the Kim regime to re-direct domestic focus away from the DPRK’s economic malaise towards foreign enemies. [Test]
• Progress slow on U.N. resolution on North Korea: official
  Progress has been slow in drawing up a new U.N. sanctions resolution to punish North Korea for its fourth nuclear test as the U.S. and China disagree over its content, a South Korean official said Monday. Washington has presented a draft resolution to Beijing for review, hoping to impose tougher and more extensive sanctions on Pyongyang for its Jan. 6 nuclear test. "The Chinese side, as has been the case in the past, is extremely slow at first," the official told reporters on the condition of anonymity as the talks are still under way. Beijing's cooperation is essential in drawing a strong sanctions resolution from the U.N. Security Council because it is one of five veto-wielding permanent members, along with the U.S., Russia, France and Great Britain. China, however, has been reluctant to push the North too hard out of concerns for its own security interests. [UNUS] [China NK] [Test]
• China, Russia oppose five-way talks
  By Rachel Lee President Park Geun-hye's proposal on Friday to hold a five-nation meeting aimed at resolving Pyongyang's nuclear program has received conflicting responses from the United States and China. The proposed discussions would be an exclusion of North Korea from the long-stalled six-party talks involving the two Koreas, Japan, Russia, China and the United States. These talks have been suspended since late 2008. The U.S. has expressed its support for five-way talks. "The United States supports President Park's call for a five-party meeting. We believe coordination with the other parties would be a useful step in our ongoing efforts to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula through credible and authentic negotiations," a spokesman for the U.S. Embassy in Seoul said in a statement Sunday. China, however, has shown opposition to Park's suggestion, sticking to resuming the six-party talks with North Korea. China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said Friday that all parties should "restart the six-party talks at an early date, in order to move forward the goal of denuclearization and ensure long-term stability and development of the peninsula." China and Russia have objected to the idea of the five-nation dialogue, which has been proposed consistently since the North's second nuclear test was conducted in 2009, because it could be "provocative" to Pyongyang. [Six Party Talks]
• Parliamentarians and the North Korean nuclear test
  Parliaments condemn the test. PNND leaders call for diplomacy, cooperative security and disarmament. NE Asia Nuclear Weapon Free Zone could provide a regional solution. January 10, 2016 On January 6, North Korea announced it had conducted a nuclear weapons test, and claimed it was a hydrogen bomb – a fusion weapon which is much more powerful than the fission bombs it had tested previously. The evidence points however to another fission bomb explosion. Data collected at a Global Seismographic Network Station in Mudanjiang, China indicates a three – seven kiloton blast, far too small to be a hydrogen bomb. Regardless, the nuclear test was perceived by neighbouring countries Japan and South Korea as threatening to their security, and by countries around the world as provocative, irresponsible and in violation of a global norm against nuclear tests. [Test]
• Nuke Test Increases N.Korea's Isolation
  About a dozen countries have canceled plans to open diplomatic missions in Pyongyang after North Korea's nuclear test on Jan. 6 or canceled high-level visits. A government official here on Sunday said North "is being isolated fast in the international community." Thailand was among the countries the North invited to open a diplomatic mission in Pyongyang, but talks have ground to a halt. The organizers of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland last week also disinvited North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Su-yong, and the UN Secretariat has indefinitely postponed a disarmament fellowship program for North Korean diplomats. "Since the latest North Korean nuclear test, international public opinion seems to be that the North is not worth engaging with," a Foreign Ministry official in Seoul said. "Ri achieved some diplomatic progress last year, but now that's all being undone." Last year, the North made efforts to restore diplomatic relations with countries in Europe, Southeast Asia and Latin America, asking for various kinds of assistance. [Test]
• First draft of UNSC sanctions would bar NK oil imports and mineral experts [exports]
  Posted on : Jan.23,2016 18:57 KST The US-prepared draft is unlikely to be accepted as such, but may be aimed at putting pressure on China, which has thus far emphasized dialogue over sanctions The first draft of a UN Security Council sanctions resolution against North Korea that was prepared by the US would reportedly block China and other countries from exporting oil to North Korea and from importing North Korea’s mineral resources. In addition, a North Korean sanctions bill that is currently being reviewed in the US Senate was confirmed to include a de facto ban on transactions involving resources like minerals and coal that are used in normal industrial activities. The administration of US President Barack Obama has been testing the waters to see how China and other countries will respond to a draft of the resolution containing such provisions, Japan’s Kyodo News said in a Jan. 22 report that quoted a diplomatic source in UN headquarters. Reportedly, the draft would also prevent countries from allowing Air Koryo, North Korea’s state-run airline, to pass through their airspace. This amounts to a demand for China to cancel all flights by Air Koryo. [UNUS] [UNSC] [Sanctions] [Test]
• DPRK Hydrogen Bomb Trial: International Reaction
  Konstantin Asmolov North Korea’s actions could not but cause a reaction from the “civilized world”, and it can be assumed that all the parties concerned “played their role as usual”, albeit with some comments. For example, while condemning Pyongyang’s actions in general, none of the leaders openly confirmed the fact that tests of thermonuclear weapons took place. As RF and USA officials said, “If this fact is confirmed, it would be a dramatic violation of certain UN Security Council resolutions and should not be left without a tough international response.” Of course, no one welcomed nuclear tests. More or less, all the neighboring countries noted that this fact did not increase the regional stability and increased tensions, threatening the non-proliferation regime. Some accused the DPRK of violating international law, although, in my opinion, this is not completely correct. It is more about the DPRK consistently ignoring four UN Security Council resolutions that prohibit it from developing missile and nuclear programs. Even though some critics question the role of the UN, there is no alternative to its global arbitrator’s role today. And for this reason the North Korean actions cannot but cause censure. Anyway, at the end of the emergency meeting of the UN Security Council on January 11, all the 15 Member States decided to start working immediately on a new resolution on the DPRK. The DPRK’s participation in the Davos forum was cancelled, and its denuclearization might be included in the outcome document of the forthcoming G7 summit in Japan in May. As Kyodo News reported, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe plans to introduce this issue to the agenda of the summit because of the danger of such actions for the international community. [Test]
• U.S. Concludes N.Korea Did Not Test H-Bomb
  The U.S. Congressional Research Service has dismissed North Korea's claim that it tested a hydrogen bomb earlier this month, describing it instead as a "boosted fission weapon" or simply a "conventional nuclear bomb." Many experts have expressed doubt that the North has the technology to make an H-bomb, which would be much more powerful than a conventional nuclear bomb. They base their assessment on the lower-frequency seismic waves emitted by the test, the CRS said in a report. "Another possibility discussed by technical experts is that the Jan. 6 test was a 'boosted' fission weapon," it added. "Generally, countries would test a boosted fission weapon as the next step after testing fission weapons, on the path to developing a hydrogen bomb." James Syring of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency also said in a lecture at the Center for Strategic and International Studies on Tuesday that Washington believes that North Korea's technological capabilities have not improved, so there has been no change in the U.S. missile defense program. [Test] [H-bomb]
• Reality and Hypocrisy: DPRK Nuclear Test Condemned By Nuclear Powers
  Christopher Black The news of another nuclear weapon test by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, often referred to in the west as North Korea, has been met with condemnation from the most powerful nuclear armed state of them all, the United States of America, the only nation to have actually used them, against the people of Japan in 1945, and a nation that still retains a first strike strategy against its claimed enemies. This was to be expected from the greatest hypocrite state in the world. But the United States is not the only nuclear weapon state that showed blatant double standards in reaction the news. Both Russia and China have condemned the test of what the DPRK claimed was a miniaturized hydrogen bomb. This hypocrisy is even more startling since both Russia and China are modernizing and increasing their nuclear weapon systems to deal with the existential threat from the United States which is doing the same. Meanwhile Britain claims the right to renew its Trident submarine programme with its nuclear arsenal and France, Pakistan, India, and Israel continue to maintain their nuclear weapon systems. [Test] [Hypocrisy]
• Kim Jong-un threatens “retaliatory nuclear strike” if sanctions imposed on NK
  Posted on : Jan.14,2016 17:09 KST Kim Jong-un presents the scientists behind North Korea’s recent nuclear test with a citation from the party and the nation in a Korean Workers’ Party (KWP) Central Committee office, in an image taken from the Rodong Sinmun, the KWP’s official newspaper, Jan. 12. Next to Kim is Hong Yong-chil (circled), who oversaw the test. (Yonhap News) In first comments since the North’s fourth nuclear test, Kim also vowed to continue developing nukes, promising “an even mightier hydrogen bomb in the future” North Korean leader Kim Jong-un spoke of launching a “retaliatory nuclear strike” if South Korea and the international community impose sanctions in response to the North’s fourth nuclear test. These are the first official comments that Kim has made in the week following the nuclear test. Kim’s decision to use a phrase as provocative as “nuclear strike” appears to be a backlash against pressure from the US, including the deployment of strategic military assets near the Korean Peninsula. “If our enemies infringe upon our sovereignty and carry out threatening provocations, we will further strengthen, both in quantity and in quality, our nuclear arsenal, so that we can carry out a nuclear strike on the forces of imperialism led by the American imperialists, in accordance with orders given by the Party leadership,” Kim said on Jan. 12, according to a Jan. 13 report in the Rodong Sinmun, the official newspaper of the Korean Workers’ Party (KWP). “The American imperialists and their stooges are talking about imposing sanctions on us and bringing their strategic weaponry into South Korea, which is ratcheting up tensions and bringing the threat of nuclear war to the Korean Peninsula,” Kim said. [Conditionality] [Media] [Heading]
• North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Facility: Slow Progress at the Experimental Light Water Reactor
  By 38 North 14 January 2016 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by William Mugford. Summary Recent commercial satellite imagery of the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center has revealed new developments over the past six months, most recently in January 2016, suggesting that North Korea’s Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR) is edging closer to becoming operational. These developments are: 1) the completion of two channels that will feed water into a cistern connected to the reactor’s pump house for its cooling system; and 2) the completion of the reactor’s electric transformer yard with the installation of two new transformers. However, predicting when construction will finish and the ELWR will be become operational has proven to be difficult. Aside from determining whether work has been finished inside the externally complete building, it still remains unclear whether the North has succeeded in fabricating the fuel assemblies necessary to power the reactor. [Yongbyon] [LWR]
• On the North Korean “Hydrogen Bomb Test”
  Konstantin Asmolov On January 6, 2015 at 10: 00 Pyongyang time, North Korea conducted a “hydrogen bomb test”. First, a 5.1 magnitude earthquake was recorded in the area of the North Korean nuclear test site. Then, the North Korean television released a special statement declaring that the country had “successfully tested a hydrogen bomb created entirely with Korean technology.” The government’s statement on the matter was spread almost immediately afterwards. In the statement overflowing with characteristic rhetoric, it was made clear that the reason for the test was the aggressive policy of the United States (“the world has not seen a more sinister, brutal and long-standing hostile policy”), while also adding that “the test did not incur an adverse impact on the surrounding environment” and “North Korea, as a responsible nuclear weapons state, will not use nuclear weapons first, as long as hostile forces do not encroach on our sovereignty, and will never transfer the means and technology of nuclear weapons under any circumstances.” Yet, “unless the United States abandon its hostile policy toward the DPRK entirely, there can be no suspension in the development of nuclear weapons, nor can there be nuclear dismantlement, even if the sky falls in.” [H-bomb] [Test]
• North Korean Power and Kim Jong Un’s Smaller H-Bomb
  By Peter Hayes and Roger Cavazos Jan 12, 2016 I. Introduction In this essay, Hayes and Cavazos articulate the strategic connections between Kim Jong Un’s annual New Year address, his birthday, and North Korea’s fourth nuclear test. Three landmark events occurred in North Korea so far this year. The first was Kim Jong Un’s annual New Year address on Jan. 1. [1] The second was North Korea’s fourth nuclear test on Jan. 6, hailed by the North’s official media KCNA as a “smaller H-bomb.”[2] The third was Kim Jong Un’s birthday on Jan. 8. These three events are related. Let’s connect the dots. Let’s start with the nuclear test, which dominated international media whereas Kim’s speech was barely noted outside of Pyongyang, Seoul and Beijing. [H-bomb]
• North Korea Tests a Submerged-Launch Ballistic Missile, Take Three
  By John Schilling 12 January 2016 While a reported third test of North Korea’s submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) system in December 2015 now appears to have failed, an examination of the video of the initial stages of this launch along with commercial satellite imagery of the submarine and support vessels in port two days later, suggests that this test was probably conducted from a submerged barge rather than an actual submarine. The failed launch combined with testing from a barge shows that North Korea still has a long way to go to develop this system. Contrary to some speculation in the media, an initial operational capability of a North Korean ballistic-missile submarine is not expected before 2020. [SLBM]
• North Korea’s H-Bomb test is a risk-raising nuclear game changer
  Michael Auslin January 6, 2016 | National Review Online If North Korea’s claim of having tested a hydrogen bomb holds up, then East Asia’s nuclear risk has gone up a magnitude. Mastering the technology of a fusion weapon is not easy, and skepticism abounds that the impoverished, isolated regime in Pyongyang has actually made the leap from fission to potential megaton yields. Yet foreign skepticism of North Korea often winds up confirming Pyongyang’s claims. If there is one thing the Kim regime is successful at, it is in aggressively pursuing capabilities that both deter its adversaries from contemplating employing the kind of pressure that could weaken the regime, and also use its new-found strength for blackmailing concessions from the United States, South Korea, and Japan, among others. [H-bomb] [Test] [Hysteria] [Nuclear blackmail]
• North Korea: How Many Wake-Up Calls Will It Take?
  by David Krieger North Korea has been sounding alarms since it withdrew from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 2003. Its latest wake-up call in early 2016 was its fourth nuclear test. This time it claimed to have tested a far more powerful thermonuclear weapon, although seismic reports do not seem to bear this out. North Korea has been roundly condemned for its nuclear tests, including this one. To put this in perspective, however, the US has conducted more than 1,000 nuclear tests, continues to conduct subcritical nuclear tests, has not ratified the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, regularly tests nuclear-capable missiles, and plans to spend $1 trillion modernizing its nuclear arsenal. The US and the other eight nuclear-armed countries are quick to point fingers at North Korea, but slow to recognize their own role in fanning the flames of nuclear catastrophe. What does an awakened world actually mean? As the survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki have repeatedly warned, “We must abolish nuclear weapons before they abolish us.” This will require good faith negotiations to end the nuclear arms race and achieve nuclear zero. And these negotiations must be convened and led by the US and Russia, the two most powerful nuclear-armed countries in the world. If we are not awakened by North Korea’s latest test, what will it take? What other, louder alarm is necessary for the world to come together and work toward achieving nuclear zero before nuclear weapons are used again and we all become victims of a war from which humanity will never awaken? David Krieger is President of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation (www.wagingpeace.org). [H-bomb] [Test] [Double standards]
• As U.S. Modernizes Nuclear Weapons, ‘Smaller’ Leaves Some Uneasy
  By William J. Broad and David E. Sanger Jan. 11, 2016 As North Korea dug tunnels at its nuclear test site last fall, watched by American spy satellites, the Obama administration was preparing a test of its own in the Nevada desert. A fighter jet took off with a mock version of the nation’s first precision-guided atom bomb. Adapted from an older weapon, it was designed with problems like North Korea in mind: Its computer brain and four maneuverable fins let it zero in on deeply buried targets like testing tunnels and weapon sites. And its yield, the bomb’s explosive force, can be dialed up or down depending on the target, to minimize collateral damage. In short, while the North Koreans have been thinking big — claiming to have built a hydrogen bomb, a boast that experts dismiss as wildly exaggerated — the Energy Department and the Pentagon have been readying a line of weapons that head in the opposite direction. The build-it-smaller approach has set off a philosophical clash among those in Washington who think about the unthinkable. [Test] [Nuclear weapons] [Double standards] [Tactical nuclear weapons]
• N.Korea Claims Progress on Submarine-Launched Missile
  A missile is launched from a submarine in this screen grab from a video released by state [North] Korean Central TV on Friday. A missile is launched from a submarine in this screen grab from a video released by state [North] Korean Central TV on Friday. North Korea continued to goad the international community with footage of what it says was a fresh and more successful test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile. The new claim came amid growing tensions after the North tested another nuclear device last Wednesday. State-run [North] Korean Central TV on Friday showed the footage as part of a propaganda segment about leader Kim Jong-un's visit to a military unit on Dec. 21. Kim is seen in a thick coat and hat standing on the deck of a ship watching the launch. The missile rises almost vertically from the sea before the engine ignites in the air 30 to 40 m above the surface and disappears into the clouds. Some experts believe the footage was doctored, none too subtly combining clips of improved Scud missiles launched a couple of years ago. They reason that no SLBM would ignite that far out of the water. In a previous test last May, a prototype missile launched from a submarine reportedly flew about 200 m before dropping back into the water. One source said the test last May was so far the only success on the way to developing the missile. [SLBM]
• Kim Jong-un Repeats 'Defensive' Aim of Nuclear Test
  North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has repeated that his country's test of a purported hydrogen bomb last week was an act of self-defense. The official Rodong Sinmun daily on Sunday quoted Kim as saying during a visit to the Ministry of the People's Armed Forces that the test was "a self-defensive step for reliably defending peace on the Korean Peninsula and regional security from the danger of nuclear war caused by the U.S.-led imperialists." The daily did not reveal the date of the visit, but it was the first time since the nuclear last Wednesday that Kim appeared before the North Korean public. North Korean soldiers clap as Kim Jong-uns Benz sedan passes by in this photo released by the official Rodong Sinmun daily on Sunday. North Korean soldiers clap as Kim Jong-un's Benz sedan passes by in this photo released by the official Rodong Sinmun daily on Sunday. Kim also kept his head down for three days after the North's third nuclear test in February 2013. The nuclear test "is the legitimate right of a sovereign state, which no one can refute," the daily quoted Kim as reciting the regime's standard line. But while the substance of the remarks is nothing new, pundits wonder what the circumstances say about the standing of the unruly military, which Kim had seemed at pains to rein in. One researcher at a state-run think tank here that Kim made the remarks while visiting the armed forces ministry "suggests he is willing to boost the military and heighten tensions in view of more international sanctions likely to follow the North's nuclear test." But it is less clear whether the military has regained the advantage in internal power struggles or whether Kim is now confident that he has it under control. [Deterrent] [H-bomb] [Legality]
• [Photo] Young Kim Jong-un’s playtime
  Posted on : Jan.10,2016 11:10 KST Modified on : Jan.10,2016 11:10 KST Following the recent nuclear test, North Korean Leader, Kim Jong-un, appears on the cover of the Jan. 18 issue of US newsmagazine The New Yorker. The magazine publicized the illustration, titled “New Toys,” through its Twitter feed on Jan. 8 (Korean time). [H-bomb] [Test] [Racism]
• Did U.S., Japan Know of N.Korean Nuke Test in Advance?
  Both Washington and Tokyo were aware of North Korea's preparations for a fourth nuclear test, according to press reports, although they were officially pretending to be shocked and surprised. Seoul too has officially claimed to have had no idea that the North's nuclear test preparations were this far advanced. The official line here, at any rate, is that North Korea caught everyone off guard. But the U.S. not only knew, as most pundits did, that the North had dug a new nuclear test tunnel, but "was aware of test preparation for two weeks and launched drones to get a baseline air sample near the site," according to an unnamed official quoted by NBC News. [H-bomb] [Test] [Intelligence] [Sidelined]
• Does North Korea Need Nukes to Deter US Aggression?
  by Mike Whitney Here’s your U.S. foreign policy quiz for the day: Question 1– How many governments has the United States overthrown or tried to overthrow since the Second World War? Answer: 57 (See William Blum.) Question 2– How many of those governments had nuclear weapons? Answer— 0 Does that mean North Korea needs nuclear weapons to deter US aggression? Yes and no. Yes, nuclear weapons are a credible deterrent but, no, that’s not why North Korea set off a hydrogen bomb last Tuesday. The reason North Korea detonated the bomb was to force the Obama administration to sit up and take notice. That’s what this is all about. North Korea’s supreme leader, Kim Jong Un, wants the US to realize that they’re going to pay a heavy price for avoiding direct negotiations. In other words, Kim is trying to pressure Obama back to the bargaining table. Unfortunately, Washington isn’t listening. They see the North as a threat to regional security and have decided that additional sanctions and isolation are the best remedies. The Obama administration thinks they have the whole matter under control and don’t need to be flexible or compromise which is why they are opting for sticks over carrots. In fact, Obama has refused to conduct any bilateral talks with the North unless the North agrees beforehand to abandon its nuclear weapons programs altogether and allow weapons inspectors to examine all their nuclear facilities. This is a non-starter for the DPRK. They see their nuclear weapons program as their “ace in the hole”, their only chance to end persistent US hostility. [H-bomb] [Test] [US NK policy]
• North Korea's nuclear test: Initial analysis
  6 January 2016 7:07p.m. . North Korea claims it has successfully tested a hydrogen (thermonuclear) bomb today. Seismic readings show there was a non-natural seismic event consistent with an explosion near Sungjibaegam, North Korea's nuclear test site. The seismic readings are of similar magnitude to those from North Korea's last nuclear test in February 2013. That test is thought to have had a yield equivalent to several thousand tons of TNT (say 7 kilotons; by comparison, the Hiroshima bomb had a yield of 16 kilotons). At this stage it is not possible to confirm whether this was a thermonuclear explosion. It might be possible to confirm this by sophisticated seismic analysis, but more likely it will require analysis of atmospheric emissions, if there are any leaks from the test tunnel. Any emissions could take several days to detect and analyse. But no emissions were found from the 2013 test, so there is no certainty emissions will be found this time. A thermonuclear weapon uses an 'atomic bomb' (a fission explosion, splitting plutonium or uranium atoms) as a 'primary'* to produce the high temperatures required for fusion of hydrogen atoms (typically deuterium and tritium) incorporated in the weapon assembly. As the hydrogen atoms fuse together they release enormous energy (explosive force and heat) and also neutrons, which results in more complete fissioning of the nuclear material in the initiator. Hence a thermonuclear weapon results in very high explosive yields (in the hundreds of kilotons, or even megatons, compared with a basic fission weapon which would usually be less than 50 kilotons). [H-bomb] [Test]
• AFSC: Diplomacy best answer to North Korea’s nuclear test
  Published: January 7, 2016 The American Friends Service Committee (AFSC) is deeply troubled by reports that North Korea conducted its fourth nuclear test on Jan. 6. As longstanding opponents of nuclear weapons, we urge the United States and the international community to respond by intensifying diplomatic efforts to address the situation and its underlying causes. This nuclear test underscores the need for the United States and international community to pursue an ongoing, committed diplomatic approach. AFSC has worked with and in North Korea since 1980 on people-to-people exchanges and agricultural and economic issues. We know firsthand that Americans and North Koreans can work collaboratively to build a more prosperous and peaceful future. [H-bomb] [Test] [Liberal]
• Politicians Use North Korea H-Bomb Fears to Pitch Wasteful Missile Defense Projects
  Lee Fang Jan. 7 2016, 12:16 p.m. Republican politicians responded almost reflexively to the North Korean nuclear test on Tuesday by demanding more spending on missile defense programs that have historically proved ineffective at preventing an enemy strike — but are built by companies that have lavished policymakers with campaign cash and political support. Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., released a statement calling for the country to “reinvest in missile defense and our military presence in the Pacific.” Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Ala., called for Obama to “dramatically enhance trilateral missile defense” and declared that Obama should deploy a Lockheed Martin missile defense system in South Korea. Raytheon and Lockheed Martin are among his top donors. Rep. Mac Thornberry, R-Texas, issued a statement specifically calling for spending on that same program; Lockheed Martin is by far his biggest donor over the course of his congressional career. Since the early 1990s, politicians of both parties have cited the threat of North Korea to demand funding for an array of missile defense programs that quickly became monumental examples of government waste. Meanwhile, the contractors involved in these projects, including Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and Raytheon, among others, have manipulated the politics around these programs by funding politicians, pundits, think tanks, and lobbyists behind the never-ending spiral of taxpayer spending. More than $50 billion has been spent on ineffective missile defense programs so far — the result of efforts that often began by citing the threat of states such as North Korea. Consider: [H-bomb] [Test] [Missile defense]
• North Korean Nuclear Test: Imagery Shows No Indicators
  By 38 North 07 January 2016 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. The North Korean announcement yesterday that the “…first H-bomb test was successfully conducted in the DPRK at 10:00 on Wednesday, Juche 105 (2016)” has led to speculation about the capabilities of North Korea’s nuclear program, whether, in fact, it was a test of an H-bomb, whether there were any indications of an impending test or afterwards, where the test had occurred. Commercial satellite imagery can help provide answers to the last two questions. [H-bomb] [Test] [Intelligence]
• North Korea’s “H Bomb”: No Ado About Something
  In my opinion, a lot of the mockery of the North Korean nuclear test—the silly little man with his silly little bomb—is racism that reassures. It evokes the explanation for why many poor rural whites adopted a posture of racial exclusion instead of class solidarity with poor rural blacks in the American South: “because 'If you ain't better than a ****, who are you better than?'”. We may have our problems, in other words, but at least we’re not North Korea. But of course, the mockery has another, more unsettling note: that North Korea is one problem that we’re not solving. And we’d like to ignore that by retreating to the comforting assertion that the leadership of the DPRK is simply bugnuts. It is an inconvenient fact that US North Korean policy has been a rolling fiasco for the last decade, climaxed by two years of chaos in 2005-7 as hardliners attempted to effect regime change in the DPRK through a campaign of financial sanctions. The effort backfired, literally, with the DPRK’s first nuclear test, in 2006, accompanied by frantic backpedaling by the Bush administration, and a half-year of desperate obstruction by the discredited hardliners. There has been a concerted effort to convert this resume stain into one of the great achievements of forceful American diplomacy and, in the current issue of CounterPunch Magazine, in a piece titled The Treasury’s Bomb, I have taken pains to lay out the little known history of this spectacular debacle. [H-bomb] [Test]
• Trump is dead wrong on NK nuke issue
  (Global Times) 10:15, January 08, 2016 North Korea's claims of a successful hydrogen bomb test have frustrated international society. The UN Security Council issued a prompt statement denouncing North Korea's act. It is expected new measures against the North will be announced soon. At this juncture, the US and a few Western countries are pointing the finger at China, accusing China of being responsible for the North Korean nuclear problem. Donald Trump, US presidential candidate and always an indiscreet speaker, claimed that "China should solve that problem and we should put pressure on China to solve the problem." He even flippantly advocated that the US should act very tough on China on trade and "have China collapse in two minutes." [H-bomb] [Test] [Trump] [Chinese IR]
• The North Korean Hydrogen Bomb  
  The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) announces it has tested a "miniaturised" hydrogen bomb which has been a "perfect success" and elevates the country's "nuclear might to the next level".  
  This once again sets off a depressingly predictable cycle of events. All to no avail. In fact the situation just gets worse with each turn of the cycle.  
  Washington condemns. Seoul condemns. The United Nations condemns. Wellington condemns. The whole world condemns.  
  There is immediate talk of increased sanctions. Great idea! Only problem is that sanctions against North Korea have been ramping up for 66 years now with no discernible effect. In the words of a 2007 House of Lords Select Committee report “Reliance on sanctions as the main means of resolving the current disputes with North Korea appears to be a recipe for failure.”  
  A US envoy will urgently visit Seoul, China and Japan for talks. The envoy will not make the one visit that should be made – to Pyongyang. That might look like giving North Korea what it is asking for, namely, talks to end the Korean War.  
  The NE Asian arms race will accelerate. South Korea, already the world’s largest importer of arms, will order more high tech armaments. Japan remilitarisation will accelerate The US will sharpen its pivot to Asia. In response China will increase its military budget.  
   The US military industrial complex will laugh all the way to the bank……….
  [H-Bomb]  [Test]
• North Korea's Alleged H-Bomb Test Points to Need for Global Ban on Nukes
  Published on Wednesday, January 06, 2016 by Common Dreams North Korea's Alleged H-Bomb Test Points to Need for Global Ban on Nukes The detonation was announced by North Korea state media and has not been independently confirmed by Deirdre Fulton, staff writer North Korea claimed on Wednesday to have successfully carried out a hydrogen bomb test, a move that—if true—would mark a notable advance in the country's nuclear capabilities and a significantly increased threat to the world. The development was announced by North Korea's official KCNA news agency and has not been independently confirmed. [H-bomb] [Test] [Liberal] [Threat]
• Eight countries. 2,055 nuclear tests. 71 years.
  In the name of national security, eight countries have tested nuclear weapons all over the world since 1945, frequently near populated places. North Korea’s claim of hydrogen bomb test draws skepticism, condemnations. By Kevin Schaul Updated Jan. 6, 2015. Eight countries have performed nuclear tests. The United States and U.S.S.R. have performed the most explosive tests in history. “Yield,” a measure of how much energy an explosion releases, is measured in kilotons — one equalling about the power of 1,000 tons of TNT. Both nuclear superpowers have performed nuclear tests with yields of at least 10,000 kilotons (at scale above: ). The United States is the only country that has used a nuclear weapon in war. Those destructive detonations — in Japan at Hiroshima on Aug. 6, 1945, and at Nagasaki three days later — were just 15 () and 21 () kilotons. [Test] [Statistics] [Infographic]
• North Korea's Nuclear Provocation
  By Rebecca Hersman Jan 6, 2016 Today North Korea claimed to have successfully tested its first hydrogen bomb. Thought experts have not verified this claim, it corresponds to a 5.1 magnitude seismic event recorded on Tuesday. The purported test, which would signify a significant increase in North Korea’s nuclear capability, has been widely condemned by world leaders. Q1: North Korea claims to have tested a “thermonuclear” device. If true, how significant would that be? [H-bomb] [Test]
• North Korea’s “Thermonuclear” Test: The Paradox of Small, developing Nuclear Forces
  By Anthony H. Cordesman Jan 6, 2016 The reports on North Korea’s latest nuclear test are now more an exercise in uncertainty than a clear demonstration of North Korea’s actual nuclear capabilities. North Korea may or may not have been able to demonstrate its ability to use a fission weapon to produce some form of fusion or thermonuclear yield. It is still equally possible that it has simply lied, tried some form of fission-fusion design and failed, or has some uncertain degree of success in “boosting” a fission weapon and claimed this made it a thermonuclear weapon. [H-bomb] [Test]
• N.Koreans Rounded Up to Celebrate 'H-Bomb' Test
  North Koreans were urgently rounded up on Wednesday to hear the regime claim it had successfully tested a hydrogen bomb. One source in Sinuiju said ordinary people including students on vacation were ordered to turn up at neighborhood schools at 10 a.m. Wednesday. "People looked tense just like when they heard of the death of Kim Il-sung or Kim Jong-il," the source added. But they were only to watch a TV broadcast announcing the country's fourth nuclear test. The announcement came at 12:30 p.m., or noon by Pyongyang's bizarre new standard time. Afterwards they were expected to celebrate in the street. The state-run [North] Korean Central TV tried to create a mood of uplift with live coverage of a mass rally of some 100,000 people in Pyongyang. [H-bomb] [Test] [Media]
• N.Korea Gave China No Warning of Nuke Test
  North Korea did not officially notified China and the U.S. in advance of its purported hydrogen bomb test on Wednesday. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said Beijing was given no warning of the nuclear test, unlike in the past. The National Intelligence Service here believes that to be true, said lawmaker Lee Cheol-woo of the National Assembly Intelligence Committee. The playground of a school near the North Korean border in Jilin, China shows a crack on Wednesday due to tremors caused by the Norths nuclear test. /Newsis The playground of a school near the North Korean border in Jilin, China shows a crack on Wednesday due to tremors caused by the North's nuclear test. /Newsis Pyongyang had notified Beijing and Washington of the previous three tests, and the U.S. then sent the information on to South Korea, but not this time. According to the NIS, the North notified China of its first nuclear test in October 2006 30 minutes in advance, and warned the U.S., China, and Russia of its second nuclear test in May 2009 half an hour beforehand. In 2013, it gave them a day's notice. [H-bomb] [Test]
• N.Korea's Secretive Nuke Test Fuels Fevered Speculation
  North Korea made such thoroughly clandestine preparations for its fourth nuclear test that it even caught its sole real ally Beijing on the back foot. The international community was caught mostly off guard, since North Korea watchers had not been expecting the event so soon even though some preparations were clearly going on at the test site. But leader Kim Jong-un made no mention of nuclear weapons in his New Year's speech, so there was not even a veiled hint to go by. The North aired a special broadcast two hours after the test Wednesday and said Kim gave the orders on Dec. 15 and the final go-ahead on Sunday. [H-bomb] [Test]
• [Analysis] Kim’s adventure to show off nuclear capability
  Posted on : Jan.7,2016 12:01 KST North Korean leader Kim Jong-un signs the order to conduct the North’s fourth nuclear test, Jan. 3, in an image broadcast by the North’s official Korean Central Television (KCTN), Jan. 6 . (Yonhap News) Domestic politics, technology development, and foreign relations all played a role in decision to carry out test In order to understand the reasons and aims behind North Korea’s decision to carry out a fourth nuclear test so suddenly and without any warning, there are three factors that must be analyzed and compared. These are the factors of domestic politics, technology, and foreign relations. In regard to the first factor of domestic politics, the test seems aimed at reinforcing the policy line that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, now in the fifth year of his rule, laid out in his New Year’s address, in which he promised to “focus the country’s efforts on building a strong economy.” It also puts the spotlight on his political leadership, with the first congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea in 36 years scheduled to take place in early May. “In terms of the domestic message, Kim Jong-un could be saying that, since North Korea has acquired a powerful nuclear deterrent, the North Korean military should help with building the economy instead of concentrating on conventional weapons,” said a former senior South Korean government official. [H-Bomb] [Test] [Byungjin]
• [Editorial] Condemnation of North Korea’s fourth nuclear test
  Posted on : Jan.7,2016 16:02 KST North Korean leader Kim Jong-un signs the order to conduct the North’s fourth nuclear test, Jan. 3, in an image broadcast by the North’s official Korean Central Television (KCTN), Jan. 6 . (Yonhap News) On Jan. 6, North Korea announced that it had successfully tested a hydrogen bomb. This is its fourth test of a nuclear weapon, the previous ones having taken place in 2006, 2009, and 2013. The test is all the more shocking in view of the fact that no specific signs of an impending nuclear test had been detected. North Korea deserves the censure it is receiving for this provocative act, which is a threat to peace and international order. There is no way to justify this nuclear test. Immediately afterward, North Korea explained it as “thoroughly defending our nation’s right to survival and autonomy in the face of constantly increasing nuclear threats and intimidation by hostile forces centered on the United States.” However, it is North Korea’s nuclear test itself that constitutes an attempt to threaten and intimidate the international community. Yet North Korea claims itself to be “a truly peace-loving nation that is making every effort to guarantee the security of the Korean Peninsula and the region by shattering the United States’ scheme to conduct nuclear war.” This is nothing more than playing with words. As long as North Korea has nuclear weapons, true peace on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia cannot be achieved. [H-bomb] [Test] [Liberal]
• North Korea almost certain to face further UN, US sanctions in wake of nuclear test
  Posted on : Jan.7,2016 15:53 KST Ambassador Elbio Rosselli, Permanent Representative of Uruguay to the UN and current President of the UN Security Council, reads a statement to the press at UN Headquarters in New York, following the conclusion of a Security Council emergency meeting concerning North Korea’s hydrogen bomb test, Jan. 6. Rosselli said that the council will take “take further significant measures” and “will begin to work immediately” to respond to the test. (AP/Yonhap News) US also likely to urge deeper military and intelligence cooperation between itself, South Korea, and Japan The UN took swift action in response to North Korea’s fourth nuclear test by calling an emergency meeting of the Security Council. According to reports, the US will soon begin reviewing the option of implementing its own sanctions against the North. In addition to this, it is very likely that the US will use the North Korean threat to put more pressure on South Korea to increase its cooperation with the US and Japan on security-related matters. The fastest response came from the UN. At the request of South Korea, along with Security Council members the US and Japan, the UN Security Council held an emergency meeting on Jan. 6. Security Council Resolution 2094, which was adopted after North Korea’s third nuclear test in Feb. 2013, contains a “trigger” clause that automatically requires “further significant measures” to be taken if North Korea commits an additional provocation. As a result, there was no need to debate whether or not the Security Council should meet. [H-bomb] [Test] [UNUS]
• North Korea’s latest nuclear test catches South Korea, US, China off-guard
  Posted on : Jan.7,2016 16:00 KST Failure to foresee the test despite warning signs reveals shortcomings of South Korean military and intelligence News that there had been an “earthquake” in North Korea around 10 am on Jan. 6 reached South Korea from Europe, China, and the US after 10:30 am. It was about half an hour later that the South Korean government organized a meeting to plan a response and that the Blue House took action to ascertain the situation. Furthermore, it was only after the news channels started reporting the possibility of a nuclear test that South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) launched a detailed analysis and the Ministry of National Defense set up a crisis management taskforce. Caught off balance, the South Korean government did not appear to accept that the nuclear test had actually happened until North Korea announced that it would be making a special announcement at noon, local time. [H-bomb] [Test] [Intelligence]
• North Korea's nuclear test cannot be written off as mere folly
  Kim Jong-un may be inexperienced but his regime has a clear strategy with its atomic weapons programme, says Robert Winstanley-Chesters Robert Winstanley-Chesters for The Conversation, part of the North Korea network Thursday 7 January 2016 15.11 GMT Last modified on Thursday 7 January 2016 16.29 GMT North Korea’s claim to have successfully tested a hydrogen bomb has been widely denounced as both irresponsible and irrational – proof of the folly of an inexperienced but power-hunger leader eager to celebrate his 33rd birthday. Yet it is always worth remembering that the regime has a very clear strategy in mind. As far as Pyongyang is concerned, the nuclear weapons programme, whether based on uranium or hydrogen, is the ultimate guarantor of its national security. [H-bomb] [Test]
• To End North Korea’s Nuclear Program, End the Korean War
  Pyongyang’s latest nuclear test may be a last-ditch effort to get on the U.S. agenda before Obama leaves office and a hawkish new president comes in. By Christine Ahn, January 7, 2016. North Korea announced recently that it had successfully detonated its first hydrogen bomb. “This test is a measure for self-defense,” state media announced, “to firmly protect the sovereignty of the country and the vital right of the nation from the ever-growing nuclear threat and blackmail by the U.S.-led hostile forces.” South Korea, Japan, and China were swift to respond with condemnation, as was the UN Security Council, which issued a statement that North Korea’s test was a “clear violation of Security Council resolutions” and resolved to take “further significant measures.” Many observers, however, including nuclear weapons experts and government officials, doubt whether North Korea really did test a hydrogen bomb. “I don’t think this was a hydrogen bomb,” said Bill Richardson, a former diplomat who’s traveled to North Korea. “It was apparently six kilotons. A hydrogen bomb is 20.” The White House also issued a statement saying that data collected by U.S. intelligence was “not consistent” with a hydrogen bomb test. While an independent verification may take days, and the world may never fully know the true extent of North Korea’s nuclear capacity, what we do know is that this would be Pyongyang’s fourth nuclear weapons test since 2006 — and the third under President Obama’s watch. If anything, this proves the utter failure of the Obama administration’s policy of “strategic patience” when it comes to achieving North Korean de-nuclearization. [H-bomb] [Test] [US NK policy] [NK US policy]
• Here's North Korea's official hydrogen bomb statement. It's a doozy.
  Updated by Max Fisher on January 6, 2016, The Korean Central News Agency, North Korea's official media agency, has released an official statement in Korean and English (as well as Chinese and Japanese) claiming that it's detonated a nuclear device — specifically, a hydrogen bomb. KCNA statements are known for their beyond-parody bluster and hyperbole (as well as their absurd, overwrought, and oddly antiquated English translations), and today's does not disappoint. [H-bomb] [Test] [Mockery]
• North Korea's dramatic rhetoric and claims over its bomb test
  By Stephen Evans BBC Korea correspondent 6 January 2016 The rhetoric from the North Korean media, announcing the country had carried out an underground test of a hydrogen bomb, was spectacular: "There took place a world startling event to be specially recorded in the national history spanning 5,000 years in the exciting period when all service personnel and people of the DPRK are making a giant stride, performing eye-catching miracles and exploits day by day." That was the way the state news agency put it, which is very much in keeping with North Korea's traditionally aggressive and bombastic rhetoric when announcing its previous nuclear tests. "The spectacular success made by the DPRK in the H-bomb test this time is a great deed of history, a historic event of the national significance as it surely guarantees the eternal future of the nation," the statement went on. That North Korea is still living with its predictable 1950s post-Korean War world view, where the US is the prime aggressor, was made clear in these statements too: [H-bomb] [Test] [Media]
• North Korean H-Bomb? Unlikely. What Will China Do?
  By Colin Clark on January 06, 2016 at 5:54 PM WASHINGTON: The hysteric delivery on North Korea’s official news channel about her country’s attempt to explode a hydrogen bomb doesn’t mean the crippled land south of China actually succeeded. The White House spokesman, Josh Earnest, said, “the initial analysis is not consistent with the North Korean claims.” It does mean that China, its most important neighbor and patron, must make decisions. How will it proceed when this matter comes before the UN Security Council. What will Chinese President Xi Jingping say to his erstwhile equal, Kim Jung Un, he of the enormous baby face. “The Chinese foreign ministry stated that they were not informed of the test in advance. A good, albeit lofty, outcome would be for China to embargo economic activity in response to the test, and temporarily close off airspace to North Korean flights,” said Victor Cha, a North Korean expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The Security Council meets sometime this week to discuss the test. The Pentagon issued a predictable statement describing the test: “…an unacceptable and irresponsible provocation and is both a flagrant violation of international law and a threat to the peace and stability of the Korean peninsula and the entire Asia-Pacific region.” [H-bomb] [Test]
• DPRK announces success of 1st H-bomb test
  Xinhua, January 6, 2016 The Democratic People's Republic of Korea announced Wednesday that it has successfully carried out its first hydrogen bomb test. Photo taken on Jan. 6, 2015 in Tokyo, Japan shows a TV hostess of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) reads news during the broadcast. The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) announced Wednesday that it has successfully carried out its first hydrogen bomb test. [Photo/Xinhua] Photo taken on Jan. 6, 2015 in Tokyo, Japan shows a TV hostess of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) reads news during the broadcast. The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) announced Wednesday that it has successfully carried out its first hydrogen bomb test. [Photo/Xinhua] The "total success" of the test, which took place at 10:00 a.m. Pyongyang time (0130 GMT), meant that the DPRK has "proudly joined the advanced ranks of nuclear weapons states possessed of even H-bomb," Pyongyang said in a statement carried by the state-run KCNA. According to the statement, DPRK top leader Kim Jong Un ordered the H-bomb test on Dec. 15, 2015, and signed the final written order on Sunday. The test has "proved the technological specifications of the newly developed H-bomb were accurate and scientifically verified the power of smaller H-bomb," said the statement. The DPRK claimed that the test was conducted "in a safe and perfect manner" and that no adverse impact was caused on the environment. It added that its development of nuclear weapons is aimed at smashing the U.S. hostile policy against it, and stressed that the DPRK would not resort to nuclear weapons unless its sovereignty was infringed on. Earlier in the day, the China Earthquake Network Center said a 4.9-magnitude earthquake jolted the DPRK at 0130 GMT at a depth of 0 km. The U.S. Geological Survey, which also reported the temblor but initially put the magnitude at 5.1 and the depth at 10 km, later revised the depth to 0 km. The DPRK's H-bomb test apparently runs counter to relevant UN resolutions and the internationally backed Korean Peninsula denuclearization efforts, and is set to cause repercussions. China has always pushed for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, maintaining that all relevant parties should refrain from unilateral moves detrimental to regional peace and stability. [H-bomb] [Test]
• N.Korea Conducts 'H-Bomb' Test
  North Korea on Wednesday claimed to have conducted a successful test of a hydrogen bomb. The country's "first hydrogen bomb test has been successfully performed at 10 a.m... based on the strategic determination of the Workers' party," state-run Central TV claimed. The channel added that the test came in "self-defense against the U.S. having numerous and humongous nuclear weapons." Independently, a strong artificial tremor measuring 5.1 on the Richter scale was observed in the area of North Korea's nuclear test site at Punggye-ri, North Hamgyong Province, agencies reported. Most experts doubt that North Korea has the technology required to detonate a hydrogen bomb. In South Korea, President Park Geun-hye called an urgent security meeting, and there has been strong condemnation from the Japanese government. [H-bomb] [Test]
• North Korea announces successful hydrogen bomb test
  Posted on : Jan.6,2016 15:25 KST South Korea and the US condemn unexpected test; more sanctions from the international community are expected North Korea announced Jan. 5 that it has succeeded in conducting a hydrogen bomb test, two hours after an artificial earthquake was detected close to the North’s nuclear test site. In a special announcement aired on Korea Central Television, the North’s official broadcast network, North Korea said it conducted an H-bomb test at 10:00 a.m. (Pyongyang Time), claiming that it “proudly joined the advanced ranks of nuclear weapons states possessed of even an H-bomb.” This test is the fourth since three nuclear tests at the site in 2006, 2009 and 2013, despite international condemnation against the tests. Last month, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said that the North has developed not only nuclear weapons but also hydrogen bombs. South Korea’s National Intelligence Service confirmed an underground nuclear explosion with seismic waves of 4.8 on the Richter scale, with 6.0 kt of explosive power. [H-bomb] [Test]
• North Korea claims successful H-bomb test
  North Korea says it has conducted its first successful hydrogen bomb test. "The first hydrogen bomb test has been successfully performed at 10 a.m. on Jan. 6, 2016, based on the strategic determination of the Workers' Party," a broadcaster said on a state-owned television news service, Korea Central Television (KCTV). The North emphasized that the bomb was made using its own resources and technology. "The hydrogen bomb test is a self-defense measure to protect the independence of the country and the people's right to survival in the face of nuclear threat and bullying from hostile forces led by the United States," said the reader. The North said the hydrogen bomb is a legal, self-defensive right and an irrefutably justified measure. "We are now a nuclear-possessing country with a hydrogen bomb," the reader said. The North made the announcement within three hours after the test, which was initially identified as an earthquake, then categorized as an artificial one. The test occurred near Gilju, where the North conducted three previous nuclear tests. The South Korean government said it has delayed convening a meeting of the National Security Council until 1:30 p.m. South Korean Vice Foreign Minister Lim Sung-nam said that the North's H-bomb test is in violation of the U.N. Security Council resolutions. [H-bomb] [Test]
• Chronology of major events leading to N. Korea's H-bomb test
  Updated : 2016-01-06 13:15 The following is a chronology of major events leading to North Korea's hydrogen bomb test on Wednesday. [H-bomb] [Test] [Chronology]
• North Korea Says It Has Detonated Its First Hydrogen Bomb
  By DAVID E. SANGER and CHOE SANG-HUN JAN. 5, 2016 WASHINGTON — North Korea declared on Tuesday that it had detonated its first hydrogen bomb. The assertion, if true, would dramatically escalate the nuclear challenge from one of the world’s most isolated and dangerous states. In an announcement, North Korea said that the test had been a “complete success.” But it was difficult to tell whether the statement was true. North Korea has made repeated claims about its nuclear capabilities that outside analysts have greeted with skepticism. “This is the self-defensive measure we have to take to defend our right to live in the face of the nuclear threats and blackmail by the United States and to guarantee the security of the Korean Peninsula,” a female North Korean announcer said, reading the statement on Central Television, the state-run network. The North’s announcement came about an hour after detection devices around the world had picked up a 5.1 seismic event along the country’s northeast coast. It may be weeks or longer before detectors sent aloft by the United States and other powers can determine what kind of test was conducted. Ned Price, a spokesman for the White House National Security Council, said in a statement that American officials “cannot confirm these claims at this time.” [H-bomb] [Test] [Intelligence]
• North Korea Says It Successfully Conducted Hydrogen-Bomb Test
  Hydrogen bomb is ‘self defensive’ step against U.S., North Korea says North Korean state media announced that the country carried out a successful test of a thermonuclear weapon on Wednesday. Photo: AP By Alastair Gale and Kwanwoo Jun Updated Jan. 6, 2016 6:49 a.m. ET SEOUL—North Korea said it successfully staged its first test of a more powerful form of nuclear weapon, expanding the U.S.’s foreign-policy challenges and highlighting the limits of China’s ability to rein in its volatile ally. North Korean state television said in a midday broadcast that scientists had successfully detonated a hydrogen bomb at around 10 a.m. local time. The U.S. Geological Survey reported that it detected a magnitude 5.1 earthquake at that time near North Korea’s nuclear test site in the country’s northeast. Experts have said it was unclear whether North Korea had developed the ability to build a hydrogen bomb. The magnitude of the latest explosion was the same as a 2013 test of an atomic bomb. [H-bomb] [Test]
• How Can We Solve the North Korean Long-Range Rocket Problem?
  January 6, 2016 Written by Cheong, Wooksik and translated from Korean to English by Subin Yang. In this essay Mr. Cheong examines recent history to bring into focus North Korea’s long-range missile problem. He then proposes solutions for peace. II. Essay by Cheong, Woosik 1. Foreword Despite what some may have feared, North Korea didn’t fire a long-range missile around October 10, 2015, which was the 70th anniversary of the establishment of the labor party in North Korea. Kim Jong-eun, the First Chairman of the National Defense Commission, did not mention the word ‘nuclear’ even once in his speech. Instead, he focused on a ‘people-first’ policy and made it clear that he will work on economic development and stabilizing people’s livelihoods. Sino-DPRK relations, which have worsened since the inauguration of the president Xi Jinping, seem to be improving after this ceremony. [Satellite] [US NK Negotiations]
• N. Korea's bomb test further imperils relations with China
  . Associated Press By CHRISTOPHER BODEEN 9 hours ago A Chinese paramilitary policeman stands guard outside the North Korean Embassy in Beijing, Wednesday, Jan. 6, 2016. North Korea said it conducted a powerful hydrogen bomb test Wednesday, a defiant and surprising move that, if confirmed, would be a huge jump in Pyongyang's quest to improve its still-limited nuclear arsenal. (AP Photo/Andy Wong) BEIJING (AP) — China sees North Korea's claim to have conducted its first hydrogen bomb test as yet another act of defiance, and will likely retaliate by joining tougher United Nations sanctions and could possibly even impose its own trade restrictions. Wednesday's test was staged close enough to the border to send palpable tremors into northeastern China, prompting schools to be evacuated. The political reverberations in Beijing will likely be just as dramatic, boding ill for a relationship already under strain. "Relations will become colder than ever," said Lu Chao, director of the Border Studies Institute at the Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences in the northeastern province that borders North Korea. North Korea acted "willfully in disregard of the opposition of the international community, including China, and caused a real threat to the lives of the Chinese people living along the border," Lu said. China's Foreign Ministry said it would summon Pyongyang's ambassador to Beijing to lodge a formal protest, and said environmental officials were monitoring air quality near the border though they had found nothing abnormal so far. "China firmly opposes this nuclear bomb test by North Korea," ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying told reporters at a daily briefing. "North Korea should stop taking any actions which would worsen the situation on the Korean Peninsula." Despite its ally status, the North did not inform China of the test beforehand, South Korea's National Intelligence Service said. [H-Bomb] [Test] [China NK]
• North Korea H-bomb test 'gross violation' of international law if confirmed: Russia
  . Reuters MOSCOW (Reuters) - A reported successful test of a hydrogen bomb by North Korea would amount to a gross violation of international law if confirmed, Russia's Foreign Ministry said on Wednesday. "Such actions are fraught with further aggravation of the situation on the Korean peninsula, which is anyway marked by very high potential of military and political confrontation," said the ministry's spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova. North Korea said it had successfully tested a miniaturized hydrogen nuclear device on Wednesday, claiming a significant advance in its strike capability and setting off alarm bells among its neighbors. (Reporting by Dmitry Solovyov; Editing by Jason Bush) [H-Bomb] [Test] [Russia]
• White House: No evidence to support North Korean ‘hydrogen bomb’ claim
  During a daily press briefing Jan. 6, White House press secretary Josh Earnest said the administration is skeptical of North Korea's claims to have carried out a hydrogen bomb test. (AP) By Anna Fifield January 6 at 2:48 PM ? TOKYO — World leaders slammed North Korea on Wednesday for carrying out a fourth nuclear test, an explosion that Pyongyang claimed was a powerful hydrogen bomb but whose strength was strongly questioned by international experts and American officials. White House spokesman Josh Earnest said initial data from various monitoring sources were “not consistent with North Korean claims of a successful hydrogen bomb test.” Nuclear monitors also said the magnitude of the blast suggested an atomic explosion rather than one produced by an exponentially more powerful hydrogen device — potentially more than 1,000 times more destructive than the bomb dropped on the Japanese city of Hiroshima near the end of World War II. [H-bomb] [Test]
• North Korea’s Ballistic Missile Submarine Program: Full Steam Ahead
  By 38 North 05 January 2016 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. Reports of a North Korean “ejection” test of the Bukkeukseong-1 (Polaris-1, KN-11) submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) on December 21, 2015, appear to be supported by new commercial satellite imagery of the Sinpo South Shipyard. This imagery also indicates that despite reports of a failed test in late November 2015 North Korea is continuing to actively pursue its SLBM development program. [SLBM]
• A history of innovation and dysfunction at Los Alamos National Laboratory
  Chuck Montaño, who worked for 32 years at Los Alamos National Laboratory as an investigator, said he views the University of California as the root of the ongoing problems in Los Alamos. New Mexican file photo Major incidents marking Los Alamos National Laboratory’s management history Jan. 1, 1943: A secret national laboratory is set up in Los Alamos to design a nuclear bomb during World War II. The University of California is named the official lab manager and is paid $5 million for a one-year contract. The U.S. Department of Energy oversees the lab’s operations. J. Robert Oppenheimer is the lab’s director. 1945: An atomic bomb is tested at the Trinity Site in Southern New Mexico on July 16, ushering in the nuclear age. Norris Bradbury replaces Oppenheimer as director. 1970: Harold Agnew becomes lab director. 1979: Donald M. Kerr becomes lab director. October 1982: Human error and erroneous labeling caused 14 lab employees to be exposed to high levels of plutonium, one of them internally. A federal report recommends “improved training” and procedures. 1986: Plutonium expert Siegfried “Sig” Hecker is named lab director. [Los Alamos] [Hecker]

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