Satellite and Nuclear Issues
Includes Six Party Talks
2017
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Much material on this issue finds its way to the US and other pages, when the emphasis seems to be on state-to-state relations. The exception being the Six-Party Talks which are usually posted here.
for some key documents see 2011 page

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• December
• November
• October
• September
• August
• July
• June
• May
• April
• March
• February
• January

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DECEMBER 2017

• Historical Implication Of Spent Fuel Risk: Perspectives From Nagasaki
  Fumihiko Yoshida and Tatsujiro Suzuki December 28, 2017 In this essay, Fumihiko Yoshida and Tatsujiro Suzuki conclude that: “nuclear weapon states and nuclear-umbrella states which own spent nuclear fuel must face the risk of possible military attack (or terrorism) on spent fuel. For those who depend on nuclear deterrence, confronting such spent fuel-related risk has not been carefully considered. Even if nuclear deterrence can work to prevent an attack using nuclear weapons by a potential enemy, it is hard to believe that nuclear deterrence would prevent attacks on spent fuel. Yet intensive attacks on one or many spent fuel pools may cause enormous damage to a nuclear weapon state without leading to nuclear war. Thus, the security benefits of nuclear deterrence for a nuclear weapon state may be drastically reduced if its enemies realize that improving their ability to attack spent fuel may be incorporated in their own strategy as a military tool to deter actions by nuclear weapon state.” Paper prepared for Workshop Reducing Risk of Nuclear Terrorism and Spent Fuel Vulnerability in East Asia co-sponsored by Nautilus Institute and Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition, Nagasaki University(RECNA), Nagasaki, January 20-22, 2017 [Nuclear fuel cycle]
• SpaceX selected to assist 2020 South Korean lunar orbiter voyage
  Posted on : Dec.30,2017 12:47 KST Modified on : Dec.30,2017 12:47 KST An illustration of the Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter (KPLO), scheduled to be launched on a voyage to the moon in 2020. (provided by Korea Aerospace Research Institute) The Falcon 9 rocket will carry the Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter on the exploration effort A South Korean orbiter to be launched toward the moon in 2020 will be carried on a rocket by the private US aerospace manufacturer SpaceX. “The US company SpaceX has been selected to carry out the scheduled launch of the Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter (KPLO) in 2020, and a launch contract was signed on Dec. 15,” the Korea Aerospace Research Institute (KARI) announced on Dec. 18. The SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket. (provided by Korea Aerospace Research Institute) SpaceX and India’s Antrix took part in the overseas bidding to carry out the launch, with KARI selecting SpaceX as a priority negotiation candidate. The final launch contract is determined through negotiations. SpaceX entered the bidding with its Falcon 9 rocket, a launch vehicle weighing 549 tons and measuring 70 meters in length and 3.7 meters in external diameter with a two-stage liquid-propelled engine that is capable of carrying 22.8 tons into low earth orbit, 8.3 tons into geostationary transfer orbit, and 4 tons into Mars transfer orbit. South Korea’s lunar orbiter weighs approximate 550 kg. [Lunar vehicle]
• N.Korean Defectors Exposed to Radiation
  By Kim Myong-song December 28, 2017 10:00 North Korean defectors who lived near the North's nuclear test site have tested positive for radiation exposure, the Unification Ministry said Wednesday. The ministry checked 30 defectors for possible radiation exposure. But it is unclear whether the radiation in their bodies came from nuclear tests, it added. Four of the 30 displayed a dose of radiation above 0.25 Gy, the minimum that can be detected in the human body through the measurement of stable chromosomal aberrations, according to the Korea Institute of Radiological and Medical Sciences. [Nuclear test] [Radiation]
• N.Korean Missile Scientists Gather for Arms Conference
  By Kim Myong-song December 13, 2017 11:42 North Korea's missile scientists gathered at a conference in Pyongyang on Monday where the North announced it will bolster its nuclear force. The official [North] Korean Central News Agency said the 8th Conference of Munitions Industry opened in Pyongyang on Monday to review the achievements of the industry and to discuss "measures for ushering in a heyday" of the defense industry. A Unification Ministry official here said, "The conference may be billed as the eighth, but this is actually the first time North Korea has officially convened such an event." [Nuclear deterrent]
• Nuclear Terrorism And Spent Fuel Storage In Northeast Asia
  NOBUYASU ABE DECEMBER 8, 2017 In this essay, Nobuyasu Abe concludes that “it may be useful to have international arrangements to share the supplies and material in case of [a nuclear terrorist attack] emergency. Cooperation among regional neighbors is a logical conclusion given the advantage of having emergency supplies in the nearby neighborhood. For such a regional cooperation to be effective the equipment and supplies to be shared should have a maximum interoperability with common specifications as far possible. Thus, it would be useful to convene a coordinating meeting for a regional nuclear emergency cooperation.” Nobuyasu Abe is Commissioner, Atomic Energy Commission and former U.N. Under-Secretary-General for Disarmament Affairs. [Nuclear terrorism] [Japan]
• S.Korea Could Build Its Own Nuke, Says Ex-U.S. Defense Chief
  By Cho Yi-jun, Kim Jin-myung December 07, 2017 09:34 A former U.S. defense secretary says it would be "preferable" for South Korea to build its own nuclear capabilities to counter the mounting nuclear threat from North Korea. William Perry was speaking at a seminar hosted by the Arms Control Association, a U.S. nonpartisan organization, in Washington on Tuesday, according to Yonhap News. "I do not think it's necessary or desirable to deploy nuclear weapons again in South Korea and Japan," he said. "But I do think it's preferable for those countries to get an independent nuclear force." He said Pyongyang will not stop its missile tests until it has an operational intercontinental ballistic missile, giving it the capability to deliver nuclear weapons anywhere around the world within a few years. He warned that an accidental clash could escalate into a nuclear war and urged the U.S. to provide "solid reassurance" to Seoul and Tokyo that its commitment to extended deterrence is "real and will be honored." . [Perry] [Nuclearisation]
• North Korean airspace could be 'no-fly zone' following missile test
  Posted : 2017-12-07 10:58 Updated : 2017-12-07 11:05 North Korea's latest missile launch last week came within sight of a Cathay Pacific passenger plane. By Danny Lee North Korean airspace could be declared a no-fly zone in response to the country's missile tests, the aviation industry's global trade body says, after the latest launch came within sight of a passenger plane. Excluding aircraft from the area is one option open to aviation safety regulators as they ponder how to deal with the arbitrary firing of missiles that has encroached on busy commercial air routes between Asia and North America. Pilots on a plane operated by Hong Kong carrier Cathay Pacific Airways saw from a distance what were believed to be the remnants of a North Korean rocket fired last Wednesday. The airline disclosed the sighting on Monday in an internal note to staff. While no international flights currently use North Korean airspace, the area around it is full of activity. Any sanctions by the United Nations safety regulator, the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), would likely bring into sharper focus the safety of aircraft operating nearby as well as commercial flights in and out of North Korea.
• Flight crew saw North Korean missile ‘blow up and fall apart’ near Japan
  By Avi Selk December 4 at 9:01 AM The Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile, as seen in an unverified image provided by the North Korean regime. (Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service/AP) A commercial airline crew witnessed the flight of an enormous North Korean missile believed capable of reaching Washington, D.C., Cathay Pacific officials confirmed Monday. “Be advised, we witnessed the DPRK missile blow up and fall apart near our current location,” the crew of Cathay Pacific Flight 893 reported Wednesday, according to a company message obtained by the South China Morning Pos [Hwasong-15]
• DPRK Gov't Statement on Successful Test-fire of New-Type ICBM
  The government of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea announced the following statement Wednesday over the successful test-fire of new-type ICBM:
  The test-fire of intercontinental ballistic rocket Hwasong-15, newly developed under the political resolution and strategic decision of the Workers' Party of Korea, was successfully carried out.
  The ICBM Hwasong-15 type weaponry system is an intercontinental ballistic rocket tipped with super-large heavy warhead which is capable of striking the whole mainland of the U.S. This system has much greater advantages in its tactical and technological specifications and technical characteristics than Hwasong-14 whose test-fire was conducted in July last, and it is the most powerful ICBM which meets the goal of the completion of the rocket weaponry system development set by the DPRK.
  Upon authorization of the WPK and the government of the DPRK, ICBM Hwasong-15 was launched at 02:48 on Nov. 29, Juche 106 (2017) in the suburbs of Pyongyang under the guidance of Comrade Kim Jong Un.
  After making a 53-minute flight along its preset orbit, the rocket accurately landed in the target waters set in the open sea in the East Sea of Korea.
  The test-fire was conducted in the highest angle launch system and it had no adverse effect on the security of neighboring countries.
  The rocket soared to the highest altitude of 4 475 km and then flew the distance of 950 km.
  After watching the successful launch of the new type ICBM Hwasong-15, Kim Jong Un declared with pride that now we have finally realized the great historic cause of completing the state nuclear force, the cause of building a rocket power.
  The great success in the test-fire of ICBM Hwasong-15 is a priceless victory won by the great and heroic people of the DPRK who have upheld the WPK's line on the simultaneous development of the two fronts with loyalty without the slightest vacillation despite the vicious challenges by the U.S. imperialists and their followers and manifold difficulties.
  The development and advancement of the strategic weapon of the DPRK are to defend the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country from the U.S. imperialists' nuclear blackmail policy and nuclear threat, and to ensure the peaceful life of the people, and therefore, they would not pose any threat to any country and region as long as the interests of the DPRK are not infringed upon. This is our solemn declaration.
  As a responsible nuclear power and a peace-loving state, the DPRK will make every possible effort to serve the noble purpose of defending peace and stability of the world.
  [Hwasong-15] [ICBM] [Deterrent]
• N.Korean Missile Was Entirely New Type
  By Yu Yong-weon December 01, 2017 09:51 Pictures of Wednesday's launch of a North Korean rocket published in the country's state media have convinced experts that it is an entirely new type of intercontinental ballistic missile. A spokesman for the Joint Chiefs of Staff here told reporters, "There are clear differences in the appearance of the Hwasong-15's warhead, the joint of the first- and second-stage boosters, and the overall size." The JCS initially speculated that the missile was an improved version of the Hwasong-14. Some experts said even the U.S. and Russia would have trouble launching an entirely new ICBM in such a short time and suspect the North had help from scientists from the former Soviet Union. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (right) talks with military officers in front of the Hwasong-15 on a mobile launcher, in this photo from the Rodong Sinmun on Wednesday. /Yonhap The Hwasong-15 is about 21 m long, 2 m longer than the Hwasong-14. That means it can hold more fuel, which translates into stronger engine thrust, longer flight time and extended range. The Hwasong-15 was fired at a high angle and reached an altitude of 4,475 km, which means it could travel up to 13,000 km if launched on a normal trajectory, around 3,000 km more than the Hwasong-14. It is also estimated to measure around 2 m in diameter, 30 cm bigger than the Hwasong-14. A larger diameter also enables a bigger and heavier warhead to be mounted on the ICBM. The warhead of the Hwasong-15 was wide and round where the Hwasong-14's was pointy and could weigh between 500 kg and 1 ton. The Hwasong-14 was powered by one engine, but the new missile by two without a support engine, an unprecedented development for North Korea, according to David Schmerler at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. Some experts even believe that the two-stage engine may be powered by a new type of solid fuel. The North also unveiled a new 18-wheel mobile launch vehicle for the missile. Even Russia and China only use 16 wheels. [Hwasong-15] [Solid fuel]
• Meet North Korea’s Newest Missile
  By ROBIN STEIN and DAVID BOTTI [Hwasong-15] [Video]
• North Korea’s latest missile launch appears to put U.S. capital in range
  By Anna Fifield November 28 at 11:07 PM TOKYO — North Korea claimed the entire United States mainland was within reach after “successfully” testing a new kind of intercontinental ballistic missile, which it called the Hwasong-15, and said could carry a “super large heavy warhead.” While Pyongyang is prone to exaggeration, its boast of having all of the United States in range is in line with experts’ calculations that the missile launched Wednesday, which flew 10 times higher than the International Space Station, could theoretically reach Washington, D.C. [ICBM] [Test] [Hwasong-15]
• N.Korea Fires Long-Range Missile
  english.chosun.com November 29, 2017 09:50 North Korea fired a powerful long-range missile in the direction of Japan early Wednesday. South Korea's chiefs of staff said the missile was launched toward the East Sea from the vicinity of Pyongsong, South Pyongan Province north of Pyongyang, at 3:17 a.m. The timing of the launch seems to have been arranged to make prime time news in the U.S. The rocket flew some 960 km and reached a height of 4,500 km, suggesting it was an intercontinental ballistic missile. [ICBM] [Test] [Hwasong-15]
• North Korea says it has achieved goal of becoming nuclear state
  Posted : 2017-11-29 14:40 Updated : 2017-11-29 15:16 By Bahk Eun-ji North Korea says it has achieved its longtime goal of becoming a nuclear state with the successful test of a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) Wednesday. According to the North's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), the Hwasong-15 ICBM is capable of carrying a "super-large heavy warhead" and "striking the whole mainland of the U.S." North Korean leader Kim Jong-un declared that the country has finally realized the completion of "the state nuclear force" and become a nuclear state. The KCNA said the missile, fired at 3:17 a.m. , flew about 950 kilometers to an altitude of around 4,475 kilometers in its 53-minute flight. It landed in the sea 370 nautical miles off Japan. The firing is North Korea's first provocation since it launched an intermediate-range missile over Japan on Sept. 15. The latest test was the third ICBM firing, following the launch of two Hwasong-14 ICBMs in July, KCNA said. North Korea said its nuclear weapons do not pose a threat to any country unless its interests are infringed. "The development of our weapons is only to protect ourselves from the nuclear threat of the U.S. ," it said. In a telephone conversation, South Korean President Moon Jae-in and U.S. President Donald Trump strongly condemned the North's provocation and agreed to maintain maximum pressure and sanctions against Pyongyang. [Test] [ICBM] [Hwasong-15]
• N.Korea's New Missile 'Can Strike All of U.S.'
  By Cho Yi-jun, Kim Jin-myung, Yu Yong-weon, Yang Seung-sik November 30, 2017 09:13 North Korea on Wednesday boasted that the intercontinental ballistic missile it launched into the East Sea in the small hours can strike "all of the U.S." In a statement read on state TV, the regime said it successfully tested a Hwasong-15 ICBM. "Now we have finally realized the great historic cause of completing the state nuclear force, the cause of building a rocket power," it quoted leader Kim Jong-un as saying. The missile, fired at a steep angle, reached an altitude of 4,475 km. Scientists said if it had been launched on a normal trajectory, it would have flown about 13,000 km, which would bring the entire U.S. mainland within range. The missile's flight speed and drop velocity were the fastest so far. The North said it carried a "super-large heavy warhead." [Hwasong-15]
• N.Korea's Missile Launch Surprised Nobody
  By Kim Soo-hye November 30, 2017 11:19 The Japanese press were the first to report Tuesday that North Korea was preparing to launch a ballistic missile. Kyodo News and the Sankei Shimbun both reported that the Japanese government detected signals from North Korea suggesting it was poised for another missile launch and warned it could take place "within a few days." But South Korea and the U.S. had also picked up the signals from "telemetry" or remote signals on Monday suggesting an impending launch, according to the Asahi Shimbun. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un reacts as a missile is being launched in Pyongsong, South Pyongan Province on Wednesday , in this grab from [North] Korean Central TV. /Yonhap Telemetry is an automated communications process where measurements and other data are gathered at remote points and transmitted to receiving equipment for monitoring. It is used to monitor fires, theft, electricity and gas usage as well as pollution. Bluetooth is also a form of telemetry. This proved a giveaway because ballistic missiles send telemetric signals to control centers, and North Korea apparently tests the signals before firing missiles. The U.S. and Soviet Union invested huge amounts of money during the Cold War to monitor telemetry signals from enemy missiles. [Hwasong-15]
• Vulnerability To Terrorism Of Nuclear Spent Fuel: The South Korean Case
  NAPSNet Special Report NOVEMBER 30, 2017 I. INTRODUCTION In this essay, Jungmin Kang estimates inventories of radioactive material in spent fuel pools in South Korea that might be attacked by terrorists. He analyses radiological plumes under prevailing winds at different seasons. He concludes that: “Cooperation among relevant countries in the region to reduce the risk of SFPF might include the following measures: a) Design basis threat (DBT) on SFP and Force-on-force tests; and b) Radiation emergency preparedness and public information regulations.” Jungmin Kang, scientist at the Natural Resources Defense Council Paper prepared for Workshop Reducing Risk of Nuclear Terrorism and Spent Fuel Vulnerability in East Asia co-sponsored by Nautilus Institute and Research Center for the Abolition of Nuclear Weapons, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, January 20-22, 2017 [Nuclear terrorism]
• The U.S. Is Stockpiling Nuclear Arms, and the Cost Is Astonishing
  We're spending $1.2 trillion on weapons that invariably make the world a more dangerous place. By Harry Blain, November 20, 2017. Overwhelmed with stories of high-level indictments, intrigues, investigations, and scandals, the American public can be forgiven for missing revelations about an issue of some importance: our nuclear weapons. Thanks to an October 31 report by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), we now have a 30-year outline of both the kinds of destructive weaponry we are buying, and how much it is going to cost. There are good reasons to be worried. “A pot of gold at the end of the rainbow” How much exactly? $1.2 trillion in all. Even spread over three decades, that’s a big investment. [Nuclear weapons]

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NOVEMBER 2017

• Radiological Estimate For Accident At Or Attack On Japan’s Hamaoka Nuclear Power Plant
  You are here: Home » NAPSNet » Special Reports » RADIOLOGICAL ESTIMATE FOR ACCIDENT AT OR ATTACK ON JAPAN’S HAMAOKA NUCLEAR POWER PLANT Hello! The below report is written in English. To translate the full report, please use the translator in the top right corner of the page. Do not show me this notice in the future. [von Hippel & Hayes windrose Banner] NAPSNet Special Report In this report, David von Hippel and Peter Hayes explore several scenarios for radiological releases, in order to estimate the potential impacts of an accident or attack, and thus the potential benefits in measures taken to avoid those impacts. The modelling shows that a significant radiological release might send a plume over heavily populated areas. The estimate provided in this analysis is therefore only a first order estimate of worst-, intermediate-, and best-case vulnerability of local populations to radiological releases caused by an accident at or attack on the Hamaoka nuclear plants. As an attack on a spent fuel may be timed to coincide when a reactor is under maintenance and many short term contractors are on site, it may be effective to time such maintenance to seasons when winds on average are blowing offshore. This measure needs careful and quantitative analysis for each reactor site. [Nuclear terrorism]
• Overkill — brought to you by the nuclear-industrial complex
  By Willliam Hartung November 20, 2017 Until recently, few of us woke up worrying about the threat of nuclear war. Such dangers seemed like Cold War relics, associated with outmoded practices like building fallout shelters and “duck and cover” drills. But give Donald Trump credit. When it comes to nukes, he has gotten our attention. He has prompted renewed concern, if not outright alarm, about the possibility that such weaponry could actually be used for the first time since the 6th and 9th of August 1945. That’s what happens when the man in the Oval Office begins threatening to rain “fire and fury like the world has never seen” on another country or, as he did in his presidential campaign, claiming cryptically that, when it comes to nuclear weapons, “the devastation is very important to me.” Trump’s pronouncements are at least as unnerving as former US president Ronald Reagan’s infamous “joke” that “we begin bombing [the Soviet Union] in five minutes” or the comment of a Reagan aide that, “with enough shovels,” the United States could survive a superpower nuclear exchange. [Nuclear weapons]
• The climatic consequences of nuclear war
  Steven Starr Starr is the director of the University of Missouri's Clinical Laboratory Science Program, as well as a... More Subscribe Although the ongoing Nuclear Posture Review is supposed to include all aspects of the strategy and doctrine that govern the use of U.S. nuclear weapons, it once again will not consider one crucial question: What would be the long-term consequences to Earth's environment if the U.S. nuclear arsenal were detonated during a conflict? [Nuclear war]
• The Trump Doctrine: Making Nuclear Weapons Usable Again
  By Michael T. Klare Maybe you thought America’s nuclear arsenal, with its thousands of city-busting, potentially civilization-destroying thermonuclear warheads, was plenty big enough to deter any imaginable adversary from attacking the U.S. with nukes of their own. Well, it turns out you were wrong. The Pentagon has been fretting that the arsenal is insufficiently intimidating. After all -- so the argument goes -- it’s filled with old (possibly unreliable) weapons of such catastrophically destructive power that maybe, just maybe, even President Trump might be reluctant to use them if an enemy employed smaller, less catastrophic nukes on some future battlefield. Accordingly, U.S. war planners and weapons manufacturers have set out to make that arsenal more “usable” in order to give the president additional nuclear “options” on any future battlefield. (If you’re not already feeling a little tingle of anxiety at this point, you should be.) While it’s claimed that this will make such assaults less likely, it’s all too easy to imagine how such new armaments and launch plans could actually increase the risk of an early resort to nuclear weaponry in a moment of conflict, followed by calamitous escalation. [Trump] [Nuclear weapons]
• No one can prevent Trump from using nuclear weapons, experts say
  Kim Hjelmgaard, USA TODAY Published 1:00 p.m. ET Nov. 19, 2017 | Updated 10:56 p.m. ET Nov. 19, 2017 A system of checks and balances exists to prevent a U.S. president from illegally ordering a nuclear strike, but no one can stop the commander in chief from using nuclear weapons, according to senior military experts and a former vice president. "If President Trump were to decide that it's time to put (North Korean leader) Kim Jong Un in his place once and for all, he would choose a plan that already exists. And it would be almost impossible in my view to override a decision to implement that option," Bruce G. Blair, a former nuclear missile launch officer and co-founder of the Global Zero group that advocates eliminating nuclear weapons, told USA TODAY on Sunday. The exact procedure that would be followed has come under scrutiny amid congressional testimony about Trump's experience and authority to wage war at a time of elevated tensions with North Korea over its nuclear ambitions. "We are concerned that the president of the United States is so unstable, is so volatile, has a decision-making process that is so quixotic, that he might order a nuclear weapons strike that is wildly out of step with U.S. national security interests," Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., said at a hearing last week into presidential authority to use nuclear weapons. [Trump] [Nuclear weapons]
• Potential Insider Threat Against Japanese Nuclear Facilities: Challenge And Progress Since The Fukushima Nuclear Disaster
  November 16, 2017 Overview The unprecedented nuclear accident that began on March 11, 2011 at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant revealed serious multi-dimensional deficiencies and failures of nuclear safety and security policies in Japan. Since the accident, these deficiencies have been gradually, but only partially corrected through efforts by the newly-established independent regulatory body, Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA) and Japan’s nuclear industry sector. One of these failures, which gathered a lot of attention from domestic and overseas specialists as well as public, is that Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA), a predecessor-organization of NRA, missed several important opportunities to strengthen nuclear safety and security measures, including ones against terrorists, even though NISA was briefed and informed about so called “B.5.b” by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in 2008. [Nuclear terrorism]
• Did North Korea Conduct A Solid-Fuel Rocket Engine Test at Magunpo?
  By: Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. November 13, 2017 An article last month by Ankit Panda in the Diplomat, citing US government sources, reported that North Korea had conducted a test of a new solid-fuel rocket engine at the Magunpo Rocket Engine Test Facility sometime between October 15-21. Recent commercial satellite imagery from mid-September to mid-October shows activity at the test facility sometime prior to October 19 that may be indicative of engine testing and matches the timing of the reported test. However, the nature of this activity (excavation, presence of debris, etc.) cannot conclusively confirm or negate the event. [Solid fuel]
• N.Korean Nuclear Test Site 'Heavily Contaminated'
  By Kim Myong-song November 06, 2017 11:09 North Korea's nuclear test site in Kilju, North Hamgyong Province is turning into a wasteland after six underground nuclear tests, according to witness accounts. North Koreans who defected from the region said 80 percent of trees that are planted die, underground wells have run dry and babies are being born with defects. The Research Association of Vision of North Korea, which includes North Korean defectors, interviewed 21 defectors who used to live in Kilju in the last couple of years. [Nuclear test] [Punggye-ri] [Canard]
• '200 Dead' as Tunnel Collapses at N.Korea Nuclear Test Site
  By Kim Myong-song November 06, 2017 11:04 Collapsing tunnels at North Korea's underground nuclear test site in Punggye-ri, North Hamgyong Province have killed up to 200 people, reports say. Japan's Asahi TV reported on Oct. 31 that an underground shaft collapsed at the test site. Citing a source, the channel reported that around 100 people were trapped when the shaft collapsed after the North's sixth nuclear test on Sept. 3 and an additional collapse during rescue operations raised the death toll to around 200. [Nuclear test] [Punggye-ri]
• North Korea working on additional nuclear, missile tests: spy agency
  Posted : 2017-11-02 21:17 Updated : 2017-11-02 21:22 By Bahk Eun-ji North Korea might carry out a new nuclear test alongside missile launches, as brisk activity has been spotted at its research facilities, South Korea's spy agency said during a parliamentary audit Thursday. During the audit, the National Intelligence Service (NIS) said Pyongyang could likely begin the work of reprocessing spent fuel rods at its main nuclear complex in Yongbyon late this year. "The North will carry out an additional nuclear test and continue to push for the development of miniaturized, diversified nuclear warheads," the NIS was quoted as saying by lawmakers who attended the audit, according to Yonhap. [Test] [Plutonium]
• Scenarios Of Insider Threats To Japan’s Nuclear Facilities And Materials – And Steps To Strengthen Protection
  Matthew Bunn November 2, 2017 In this essay, Matthew Bunn reviews scenarios of insider threats to Japan’s nuclear facilities and materials, and measures to strengthen protection. He concludes: “No one has all the answers about how best to do it. Hence, there is a need to keep trying, keep assessing, keep testing, and keep exchanging ideas – including among the countries in Northeast Asia. There is no room for complacency – which is always the enemy of effective security.” Matthew Bunn is an American nuclear and energy policy analyst, currently a professor of practice at the Harvard Kennedy School at Harvard University. [Nuclear terrorism]
• Iran says supreme leader limiting ballistic missile range
  The head of Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari speaks with journalists after his speech at a conference called “A World Without Terror,” in Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, Oct. 31, 2017. Jafari said Tuesday that the country’s supreme leader has limited the range of ballistic missiles it makes to 2,000 kilometers, or 1,240 miles. (Vahid Salemi/Associated Press) By Jon Gambrell?|?AP October 31 at 12:19 PM DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Iran’s supreme leader has restricted the range of ballistic missiles manufactured in the country to 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles), the head of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard said Tuesday, which limits their reach to only regional Mideast targets. The comments by Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari to reporters mark the first acknowledgement that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has imposed limits on the country’s ballistic missile program. It also appears to be an effort by Iranian authorities to contrast its program, which they often describe as for defensive purposes, against those of countries like North Korea, which now uses its arsenal to threaten the United States. [[Iran] [Missiles] [Bizarre] [Logic]
• Western Components Used in N.Korean Missiles
  By Cho Yi-jun October 31, 2017 09:25 Components made by major Western companies including one in the U.K. have been used to make North Korean missiles, a UN official said. The claim was made Sunday by Hugh Griffiths, who leads the UN Security Council's Panel of Experts monitoring sanctions on North Korea, on CBS show 60 Minutes. He said UN investigators found a manufacturer's logo and serial numbers on debris of a North Korean rocket recovered by South Korea in February 2016. This allowed "investigators to trace the origin and supply chain. And one component, called a pressure transmitter, was sourced to a well-known company in the West," CBS added. The pressure transmitter is a key part for missile control. The program did not reveal the company's name because it is cooperating with Griffiths' investigation. "After the pressure transmitter was manufactured in the U.K., the company shipped it legally to Taiwan," Griffiths said. The group that bought it, Royal Team Corporation, then brought it to North Korea during a trade fair. Designed for civilian use, pressure transmitters are considered so-called "dual-use" items that can be adapted for military purposes. The UNSC has recently added 32 such dual-use items to a list of goods and technologies banned from sale or transfer to the North. The ball bearings used in the rocket were also manufactured in Europe. "Major Western companies may not be aware their parts are being purchased for North Korea," Griffiths said. "Rather, North Korea relies on foreign businessmen in places like Hong Kong, Taiwan, Beijing, Singapore, and Malaysia to acquire the equipment for them without giving off any association with North Korea," he added. [Deterrent] [Sanctions] [UNUS]
• 'North Korea yet to perfect ICBM, but may do so soon'
  The Kim Jong-un regime has shown improved capability in developing an intercontinental ballistic missile. Analysts say that North Korea is expected to complete the development soon, calling for more diplomatic efforts to resolve the North's threats. / Graphic by Cho Sang-won Analysts say diplomatic negotiations only way to resolve tension By Jun Ji-hye North Korea has demonstrated significantly improved capability in developing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) through its tests in July, according to defense analysts. The analysts said such tests could be a sign that the Kim Jong-un regime may perfect an ICBM topped with a nuclear warhead soon and become capable of striking targets on the U.S. mainland. But they noted that the North had yet to demonstrate a reliable re-entry vehicle robust enough to resist the heat and pressure of penetrating the atmosphere, and that this technology seemed a major hurdle for the North in its quest to develop an operational ICBM. [Nuclear capability]

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OCTOBER 2017

• Chinese Scientists Warn of Mountain Collapse at N.Korea's Nuke Test Site
  By Lee Kil-seong October 30, 2017 09:59 Leading Chinese geologists last month warned their visiting North Korean counterparts of a potentially catastrophic collapse of a mountain on top of North Korea's nuclear test sites, the South China Morning Post reported Friday. North Korean geologists were in China for a 10-day visit. "Future tests at the facility could blow the top off the mountain, causing a massive collapse... Radioactive waste could bleed from cracks or holes at the site and be blown across the border," the daily quoted a senior Chinese nuclear scientist from the Chinese Academy of Sciences as warning. "The fallout can spread to an entire hemisphere." The North conducted its second through sixth nuclear tests under Mt. Mantap in Pygunggye-ri, 80 km from the North Korea-China border. [Punggye-ri]
• North Korea vows more satellite launches
  Posted : 2017-10-30 16:43 Updated : 2017-10-30 18:50 By Kim Rahn North Korea has pledged to launch more satellites, saying it will seek space development programs to develop its economy and improve its people's lives, the state newspaper said Monday. In an article titled "Unstoppable global trend, space development," the Rodong Sinmun declared space development is an independent right of a sovereign nation. "According to our five-year plan for space development, we will launch more working satellites, such as geostationary ones, which can contribute to improving the economy and people's lives," it said. The report comes amid unusual movements, such as new construction detected recently at the Dongchang-ri long-range missile launch site in North Pyongan Province. The satellite launch plan is seen as justifying the North's long-range rocket firing -- Pyongyang fired several of what it claims are satellites, including Kwangmyongsong-1 to Kwangmyongsong-4, but experts believe the launches may have been tests of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) technologies, of which the North claims to be nearing completion. "It is a global trend to seek economic development through space programs," the newspaper said, citing satellite developments in other countries like Cambodia, Venezuela and Myanmar. "Some specific countries manipulated United Nations Security Council sanctions and prevent space development of a legitimate sovereign country only because they are irritated. This is an unacceptable violation of the right to development," it said. The media claimed North Korea has stepped into the stage of working satellite development along with the Kwangmyongsong-4 being successfully placed into orbit in February last year. The North claimed Kwangmyongsong-4 is for Earth observation. "We also succeeded in a captive test of a rocket engine to carry a new type of stationary satellite, paving a wider road to reach space," it reported. Voice of America recently reported two new buildings were spotted near the Dongchang-ri site. [Satellite] [SLV]
• Preventive And Protective Measures Against Insider Threats At Nuclear Facilities In In Korea
  NAPSNet Special Report JEONG-HO LEE In this essay, Jeong-ho Lee describes the steps taken in the Republic of Korea to implement the advice of the International Physical Protection Advisory Service and national nuclear security legislation and policy. The ROK, he concludes, is “working on developing a national framework against insider threats. It includes revising legal requirements, improving access control and contraband detection procedures to vital areas, and enhancing the nuclear security culture.” Jeong-ho Lee is Researcher, Korea Institute of Nuclear Non-proliferation and Control [Nuclear terrorism]
• Moon's Nuclear Policy Is Schizophrenic
  October 24, 2017 12:56 President Moon Jae-in has accepted a recommendation from a special panel to resume construction of two nuclear reactors near the southern city of Ulsan but vowed to ban constructing any new nuclear power plants to pursue his nuclear-free policy. Failing to address what to do with the country's accumulated technologies and knowhow in the field, he instead stressed that the government will nurture nuclear dismantlement technologies. [Moon Jae-in] [Nuclear energy]
• North Korea quickly nearing completion of nuclear weapons: Foreign minister
  Posted : 2017-10-22 16:18 Updated : 2017-10-22 17:53 By Jun Ji-hye North Korea is putting the final touches on its nuclear and missile programs and will complete its nuclear armament soon, according to South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha. Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha "It is true that North Korea is quickly approaching the completion of its nuclear armament," Kang said in an interview with Yonhap News Agency in Brussels Saturday. The top diplomat also said the Kim Jong-un regime is capable of conducting an additional nuclear test at any time without notice. [Nuclear capability]
• Is Mt. Mantap Suffering from “Tired Mountain Syndrome?”
  By: 38 North October 17, 2017WMD A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Frank V. Pabian and Jack Liu. There have now been three detected and reported earthquake-like events subsequent to the most recent, very large (~6.1 magnitude) underground nuclear test conducted by North Korea on September 3, 2017 at its Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site. Recent media reporting has suggested that, as a result, the site may no longer be suitable for further underground nuclear testing. The three earthquakes were likely induced by the ~250 kiloton nuclear test; however, US nuclear test history at the Nevada Test Site provides evidence that such post-test tremors are not unusual. Furthermore, even in the face of what has been dubbed “Tired Mountain Syndrome,”[1] abandonment of the site for nuclear testing should not be expected. Such historical precedent, combined with the presence of two other, as yet unused tunnel complexes within the test site, leads us to conclude that there is no valid reason to assume that the Punggye-ri test site is unable to contain additional underground nuclear tests. [Nuclear test] [Punggye-ri]
• Sinpo South Shipyard: SLBM Test Not Imminent; Unknown Shipbuilding Program Underway
  October 11, 2017 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. Commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Sinpo South Shipyard from September 21 shows ongoing activity at the facility that indicates: The netting previously present at the SINPO-class[1] experimental ballistic missile submarine (SSBA) on August 7 has been removed, indicating that whatever work was being conducted is now complete; The SINPO-class submarine and submersible missile test stand barge remain in the same positions in the secure boat basin as observed last month; There are no activities suggesting either previous or forthcoming ejection tests at the facility’s test stand; Given the continued movement of components in the parts yards, a shipbuilding program is probably underway although the type of vessel remains unknown; and Two heavy-lift barge cranes are working on a submerged object just off the main construction hall’s launching ramp. While the nature of the object is unclear, what is visible suggests a sunk mother ship or small submarine. [SLBM]
• Options for remote interim storage of nuclear spent fuels in Japan
  Kae Takase And David Von Hippel October 20, 2017 I. Introduction In this report, Kae Takase and David von Hippel review the history and current status of interim storage of spent nuclear fuel in Japan. They examine the obstacles to changing current policy, and note that transparency of policy formation related to spent fuel storage technology and siting is central to achieving public support for any revision of current policies. They outline the pros and cons of a coastal barge-based scheme for interim spent fuel storage in dry casks, noting that further work is needed to assess the relative advantages of implementing such an approach in Japan. [Nuclear terrorism]
• Shin-Kori reactor construction gets go-ahead
  Posted : 2017-10-20 17:06 Updated : 2017-10-20 22:08 Kim Ji-hyung, head of a state commission set up to gauge public opinion on nuclear energy, speaks at a press conference at the government complex in Seoul, Friday. / Korea Times photo by Shim Hyun-chul 59.5% vs 40.5% for resumption of nuclear project By Jung Min-ho A state commission has decided to recommend resuming the stalled construction of two nuclear reactors ? a critical decision that may reshape the future of nuclear energy in Korea. Kim Ji-hyung, head of the commission, announced Friday the majority of a jury comprising 471 members of the public voted to resume the construction of the Shin-Kori 5 and 6 reactors which has been suspended since July. [Nuclear energy]
• [Interview] Nuclear expert: North Korea likely to have miniaturized H-bomb within Moon’s term
  Posted on : Oct.17,2017 17:34 KST Modified on : Oct.17,2017 17:34 KST National Resource Defense Council Senior Research Fellow Kang Jung-min is interviewed by the Hankyoreh at a hotel in the Yeouido District of Seoul on Oct. 12 (by Park Jong-shik, staff photographer) NRDC Senior Research Fellow Kang Jung-min believes all sides must work toward freezing NK program North Korea, which carried out a sixth nuclear weapons test last month, continues to move toward completing its nuclear armament. US President Donald Trump has been threatening North Korea with inflammatory statements about “totally destroy[ing]” the North and shows of force featuring strategic weapons, but North Korean leader Kim Jong-un struck back by promising “the most ultra-hardline response measures.” Experts on the North Korean nuclear weapon say that time is on the side of North Korea, not of South Korea and the US. [H-bomb] [Nuclear capability]
• Pressing Global Nuclear Security Problems and China’s Response
  Liu Chong October 13, 2017 In this essay, Liu Chong concludes that in addition to strengthening now-standard nuclear security and safety measures, states must go much further: “To eradicate fears of nuclear terrorism, we must treat the root cause, not only the symptoms…If human society only emphasizes protecting things like dangerous nuclear materials and facilities, and not on eliminating the root causes of terrorism, the combination of terrorism and nuclear weapons will always be our nightmare. Liu Chong is Deputy Director, Institute of Security and Arms Control China Institute of Contemporary International Relations [Nuclear security]
• [Editorial] Nobel Committee sends a message to Washington and Pyongyang
  Posted on : Oct.9,2017 17:08 KST Modified on : Oct.9,2017 17:08 KST Beatrice Fihn, left, Executive Director of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), Daniel Hogsta, center, coordinator and Grethe Ostern, right, member of the steering committee, celebrate with champagne at the headquarters of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), in Geneva, Switzerland, on Oct. 6. (EPA/Yonhap News) The decision to award this year’s Nobel Peace Prize to the anti-nuclear group International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) holds a number of implications for the Korean Peninsula, where the recent North Korean nuclear crisis has raised the danger of a potential military clash. In announcing ICAN as the winner on Oct. 6, the Nobel Committee made particular mention of the group’s efforts toward denuclearization and the “real danger that more countries will try to procure nuclear weapons, as exemplified by North Korea.” It’s a sign that the hair-trigger situation surrounding the North Korean nuclear issue had an impact on the decision to honor the group. ICAN Executive Director Beatrice Fihn has urged restraint from both North Korea and the US, asking both US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to “stop.” [Nuclear disarmament] [Nobel] [False balance]
• Trump’s Scary Nuclear Doctrine
  October 12, 2017 Pleasing Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and terrifying almost everybody else, President Trump is threatening nuclear war against North Korea and, by implication, war with Iran, as ex-British diplomat Alastair Crooke explains. By Alastair Crooke There are acres of print analyzing “will he, or won’t he” in respect to President Trump taking military action in North Korea. And equally, volumes on what Trump may intend to do in respect of Iran: Is he engaged primarily in rhetorical “theatre” to please his base, and earn press plaudits; or is he girding up for attrition (hot or cold) against Iran? Illustration by Chesley Bonestell of nuclear bombs detonating over New York City, entitled “Hiroshima U.S.A.” Colliers, Aug. 5, 1950. The unanswered question is: does President Trump regard North Korea and Iran as somehow connected (albeit that Iran has no nuclear weapons, and no nuclear weapons program)? Certainly one person – one who talks to the Trump family a lot – does think the two are directly linked. Jeffrey Sachs, who listened to Trump’s speech at the United Nations, in which the President said he was ready to “totally destroy” North Korea, tells us about the audience reaction: “Well, you could hear shuffling, chuckles, amazement, gasps, a few applause. There was Netanyahu enthusiastically applauding. It was a very odd scene. I am still a bit shaken by it.” Of course, for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and some neoconservatives, a U.S. attack on the Korean nuclear program sets a wonderful precedent for Iran – for now or for the future. We just do not know. Trump’s former career as a reality TV host has left him with a predilection for teasing and hype (“just tune in again next week, to learn more”). What is increasingly plain is that those on the inside – such as the Chair of the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee – are equally unsure whether President Trump is about to unleash “World War III” – or not. We do know, however, that Trump regards himself as an expert on nuclear conflict: in an 1984 interview with the Washington Post, Trump said that he hoped one day to become the United States’ chief negotiator with the Soviet Union for nuclear weapons. Trump claimed that he could negotiate a great nuclear arms deal with Moscow. Comparing crafting an arms accord with cooking up a real estate deal, Trump insisted he had innate talent for this mission. In a 1990 interview with Playboy, Trump said, “I think of the future, but I refuse to paint it. Anything can happen. But I often think of nuclear war.” He explained: “I’ve always thought about the issue of nuclear war; it’s a very important element in my thought process. It’s the ultimate, the ultimate catastrophe, the biggest problem this world has, and nobody’s focusing on the nuts and bolts of it.” Five years on, Trump was asked where he would be in five years. “Who knows?” he replied. “Maybe the bombs drop from heaven, who knows? This is a sick world, we’re dealing here with lots of sickos. And you have the nuclear and you have the this, and you have the that.” [Trump] [Nuclear weapons]
• Trump may be kicking off a new age of nuclear weapons
  By Adam Taylor October 12 at 1:00 AM Want smart analysis of the most important news in your inbox every weekday along with other global reads, interesting ideas and opinions to know? Sign up for the Today's WorldView newsletter. Last week, the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, or ICAN, a group that works to promote nuclear disarmament around the world. Berit Reiss-Andersen of the Norwegian Nobel Committee said during the announcement that the group had been successful in “engaging people in the world who are scared of the fact that they are supposed to be protected by atomic weapons." But the award was not just for work already done: Reiss-Andersen said the prize was intended to be a "great encouragement" for ICAN and groups like it. A story published by NBC News on Wednesday showed just how necessary that encouragement may be. Officials told NBC that President Trump, during a July meeting about worldwide U.S. military operations, was shown a picture of how the country's nuclear weapons stockpile has declined since the 1960s. Trump then allegedly suggested he wanted a nearly tenfold increase in the U.S. nuclear arsenal to return it to its highest point of over 30,000 weapons. Other officials in the room were taken aback by Trump's comments, according to NBC, and the meeting allegedly prompted Secretary of State Rex Tillerson's now-infamous labeling of Trump as a "moron." [Trump] [Nuclear weapons] [Disarmament] [Moron]
• The Courage to Decide for Peace. The Threat of Nuclear Annihilation
  By Christopher Black Global Research, October 09, 2017 One Voyce of the World “Competitive armament is not a way to prevent war. Every step in this direction brings us nearer to catastrophe. The armament race is the worst method to prevent open conflict. On the contrary, real peace cannot be reached without systematic disarmament on a supranational scale. I repeat, armament is no protection against war, but leads inevitably to war.” These words of Dr. Einstein, so clear because they state such a simple fact, are words ignored by all the nations of the world and the results are as he and logic predicted. Today the peoples of the world face the threat of nuclear annihilation not because the disputes between nations are unresolvable through negotiations, because every dispute can be resolved if the will is there, but because the very existence of nuclear weapons creates the political demand that they be used, either directly or through intimidation, to force one nation’s will on another. Bearing Einstein’s words in mind, I wonder what would happen if tomorrow the leadership of the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea stated that they have thought about what Einstein said and have decided to eliminate their nuclear weapons without even asking for any reciprocity in return, just to set an example, to do the right thing, to prepare for peace instead of war. Can you imagine the consternation in the capitals of the nuclear powers; in Washington, London, Moscow, Beijing, Paris, Berlin, Rome, Tel Aviv, Islamabad, Delhi, the raised eyebrows, the puzzled looks, turning-hopefully- to smiles in Moscow and Beijing, but disgust in Washington, London and Tel Aviv? [Nuclear disarmarment] [Bizarre]
• The Duty To Disobey Illegal Nuclear Strike Orders
  ANTHONY J. COLANGELO OCTOBER 9, 2017 I. INTRODUCTION In this essay, Anthony Colangelo argues that: “There is a legal duty to disobey illegal nuclear strike orders. Failure to carry out this duty may result in criminal and civil liability under national and international law… [T]hose ordered to plan or launch a nuclear strike are on notice: An order to use a nuclear weapon instead of a conventional weapon where the same military advantage can be gained by either gives rise to a duty to reject that order. To do otherwise and follow the order would constitute a war crime for which the actor could be held liable.” This legal duty under international law applies to all personnel in all nuclear weapons and nuclear umbrella states involved in nuclear strikes; and also to non-state actors. Anthony J. Colangelo is Gerald J. Ford Research Fellow and Professor of Law at SMU University in Dallas and consultant for the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability. [Nuclear weapons] [Legality]
• Deterring Nuclear Terrorism: Insider Threats To Nuclear Facilities
  MARTHA CRENSHAW October 6, 2017 I. INTRODUCTION In this essay, Martha Crewshaw concludes that “the difficulties associated with meeting the requirements for a successful strategy of deterrence suggest that governments and the nuclear power industry would be wise to emphasize prevention of the full range of insider, outsider, and combined insider-outsider terrorist threats from non-state actors.” Martha Crenshaw is Senior Fellow at Center for International Security and Cooperation, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University [Nuclear terrorism]

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SEPTEMBER 2017

• Current Status Of The Insider Threat In The Nuclear Installations In The ROK
  Yongsoo Hwang September 29, 2017 In this essay, Yongsoo Hwang concludes that the “proper measures to prepare for the insider threat are not yet fully introduced for many countries. In fact it is not easy to detect, delay, and respond to insider threats in a timely manner… Nonetheless, iterative approaches throughout planning, drills, and assessment are essential to set up the practical measures to mitigate the insider threat in the nuclear installation.” Yongsoo Hwang is Principal Researcher, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Republic of Korea [Nuclear terrorism]
• International Day for Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons
  TAKE ACTION September 26 September 26, 2017, will be the fourth International Day for Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons. Join people around the world in celebrating the vision of a nuclear weapons free world, raising awareness and calling on their leaders to advance nuclear disarmament. [Nuclear disarmament]
• Reducing Risk Of Nuclear Terrorism And Spent Fuel Vulnerability In East Asia
  Isao Itabashi September 22, 2017 I. INTRODUCTION In this essay, Isao Itabashi concludes that while shortfalls in the new trustworthiness system are evident, some key improvements have been made since the Fukushima accident and that: “In the future the government must be in the lead to establish a more effective trustworthiness system by utilizing privacy information and intelligence information if it is related to securing vital facilities such as nuclear and airline industries.” Isao Itabashi Is Chief Of Center For Studies, Chief Analyst, Council For Public Policy, Tokyo, Japan. He is a member of the Committee on Nuclear Security, Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA, Japan); Visiting Lecturer, National Police Academy; Visiting Professor, Musashino University; Part-Time Lecturer, Tokyo Institute of Technology; and Part-time Lecturer, Kokushikan University Paper prepared for Workshop Reducing Risk of Nuclear Terrorism and Spent Fuel Vulnerability in East Asia co-sponsored by Nautilus Institute and Research Center for the Abolition of Nuclear Weapons, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, January 20-22, 2017 [Nuclear terrorism]
• Why didn’t the US shoot down North Korea’s missile? Maybe it couldn’t
  Joshua Pollack Pyongyang’s claim that it has tested a hydrogen bomb that can be loaded on a ballistic missile raises questions about how good the west’s defence systems are Tuesday 5 September 2017 14.06 BST Last modified on Tuesday 5 September 2017 17.37 BST Perhaps no aspect of national defence is as poorly understood as ballistic missile defence. After North Korea’s shot over Japan last week with an intermediate-range ballistic missile, many people wanted to know why it wasn’t shot down. The answers may be disappointing – but hopefully they will also be enlightening. [Missile defense] [Efficacy]
• N.Korea Shoots Another Missile Over Japan
  September 15, 2017 10:36 North Korea launched another ballistic missile from Pyongyang on Friday that flew over Japan and came down in the sea about 3,700 km away. The Joint Chiefs of Staff here said the missile was launched from Pyongyang Sunan International Airport at around 7 o'clock on Friday morning and soared to some 770 km. People watch the breaking news of North Korea firing a missile over Japan in Seoul on Friday. /Reuters-Yonhap Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga in an emergency press conference said the missile flew over Hokkaido and landed in the North Pacific. He said that there are no reports of any falling debris or damage to ships in Japanese territory. A South Korean Hyunmu missile is being fired toward the East Sea on Friday. /Newsis The launch came a mere 17 days after the North fired Hwasong-12 medium-range ballistic missile over Japan. Given the trajectory of the latest missile, experts say it was probably the same type. The JCS said the South Korean military carried out a live-fire drill of a Hyunmu ballistic missile toward the East Sea right after the provocation. [Missile test]
• Radioactive nuclides detected following latest North Korean nuclear test
  Posted on : Sep.14,2017 18:05 KST Modified on : Sep.14,2017 18:05 KST A staff member from the Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety (KINS) receives air and water samples from a Korean Army helicopter pilot. Analysis of the samples showed the presence radioactive nuclide Xe-133 following the recent North Korean nuclear test. (provided by KINS) Xenon-133 was found in air and water samples analyzed by the Korean Institute of Nuclear Safety Radioactive Xenon-133 (Xe-133) isotopes believed to be from a North Korean nuclear test have been detected numerous times since a recent test. “Monitoring for radioactive nuclides since North Korea’s sixth nuclear test on Sept. 3 showed the radioactive nuclide Xe-133 to have been detected 13 times out of around 50 samples,” the Nuclear Safety and Security Commission (NSSC) said on Sept. 13. The NSSC and the Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety (KINS) began sampling for radioactive nuclides soon after the last nuclear test, using two fixed monitoring devices in northeast and western South Korea and sea- and air-based mobile devices. The NSSC’s analysis showed radioactive Xe-133 being detected nine times by the fixed equipment in the northeast between Sept. 7 and 11, and four times by ship-based mobile devices in the East Sea on Sept. 8 and 9. Concentrations ranged from 0.16 to 1.14 millibecquerels per cubic meter for the fixed device and 0.20 to 0.33 m?/? for the mobile one. Analysis based on the sample times, locations, and air currents indicated the isotopes came from the area of Punggye Village where North Korea’s sixth nuclear test was conducted, the NSSC said. At the same time, it added that the absence of other radioactive xenon nuclides prevented it from confirming what kind of nuclear test was carried out. [Nuclear test] [Radiation] [Evidence]
• North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: Satellite Imagery Shows Post-Test Effects and New Activity in Alternate Tunnel Portal Areas
  By: 38 North September 12, 2017 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Frank V. Pabian, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. and Jack Liu. New commercial satellite imagery confirms earlier 38 North analysis identifying numerous landslides throughout the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site on the slopes of Mt. Mantap (and beyond) resulting from North Korea’s sixth nuclear test. These disturbances are more numerous and widespread than seen after any of the North’s previous five tests, and include additional slippage in pre-existing landslide scars and a possible subsidence crater. However, it is unclear from the imagery whether this subsidence is due to what has been reported as “a cave-in that was externally observable,” associated with the 4.6 magnitude event that occurred eight minutes after the test. [Nuclear test]
• Mattis supports nuclear ‘triad’ but new cruise missile still under review
  Daniel Wasserbly - IHS Jane's Defence Weekly 14 September 2017 Mattis remains non-committal on replacing the legacy AGM-86 cruise missile, seen here carried by a B-52, with a new LRSO. Source: USAF Key Points • A nuclear triad of missiles, bombers, and submarines sends ‘the most compelling message’, Mattis believes • A new air-launched cruise missile is still being reviewed Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis signalled his support for continuing to field a ‘triad’ of nuclear delivery systems amid a Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) that is studying options for addressing the United States’ costly and ageing nuclear force. The Pentagon in April began its NPR and is to send a final report to the White House by the end of the year. “I have questioned the triad and I cannot solve the deterrent problem reducing [the US nuclear force] from a triad,” Mattis said during a 13 September visit to Minot Air Force Base. “If I want to send the most compelling message, I have been persuaded that the triad in its framework is the right way to go.” However, Mattis remained non-committal towards a new nuclear-capable Long Range Standoff (LRSO) cruise missile. The US Air Force (USAF) in August awarded Lockheed Martin and Raytheon each USD900 million contracts for LRSO’s maturation and risk reduction acquisition phase. An LRSO would notionally replace Boeing’s AGM-86B nuclear-capable air-launched cruise missile. Contracts for LRSO development are intended “to maintain that weapon as an option”, Mattis said, “it is not a decision yet [to field it], that will come out of a Nuclear Posture Review”. Mattis told Congress during his confirmation process in January that the United States needs to modernise its nuclear triad, but he did not immediately endorse the LRSO. Instead, Mattis wrote that he would "examine the utility and advisability of this [LRSO] programme within existing nuclear doctrine and report back" to the Senate. [US Nuclear strategy] [Triad]
• UN conference adopts treaty banning nuclear weapons
  7 July 2017 – Countries meeting at a United Nations conference in New York today adopted the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, the first multilateral legally-binding instrument for nuclear disarmament to have been negotiated in 20 years. “The treaty represents an important step and contribution towards the common aspirations of a world without nuclear weapons,” the spokesperson for Secretary-General António Guterres said following its adoption. “The Secretary-General hopes that this new treaty will promote inclusive dialogue and renewed international cooperation aimed at achieving the long overdue objective of nuclear disarmament,” Stéphane Dujarric added. The treaty – adopted by a vote of 122 in favour to one against (Netherlands), with one abstention (Singapore) – prohibits a full range of nuclear-weapon-related activities, such as undertaking to develop, test, produce, manufacture, acquire, possess or stockpile nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices, as well as the use or threat of use of these weapons. [UNGA] [Nuclear weapons]
• General Assembly - other United Nations conference to negotiate a legally-bi nding instrument to prohibit nuclear weapons: Second session
  Vote Name: Item 9, A/CONF.229/2017/L.3/Rev.1 Draft treaty on the prohibition of nuclear weapons Vote Time: Yes 122 No 1 Abstain 1 7/7/2017 10:47:53 AM
• United Nations Adopts Historic Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons
  North Korea, Alone Among Nuclear States, Voted “Yes” on Res. L.41 Authorizing this Treaty
  By Carla Stea Global Research, July 12, 2017 At approximately 11AM on July 7, 2017, following a recorded vote of 122 states in favor, 1 opposed (Netherlands in opposition, on behalf of all NATO states), and 1 abstention (Singapore), Ambassador Elayne Whyte Gomez, Costa Rican Ambassador to the UN in Geneva, and President of the “United Nations Conference to Negotiate a Legally Binding Instrument to Prohibit Nuclear Weapons, Leading Towards their Total Elimination,” announced the adoption of this treaty, which had been awaited for 70 years, the legally binding norm prohibiting nuclear weapons. [Nuclear disarmament]
• N.Korea Preparing for Another Missile Test
  September 11, 2017 10:29 North Korea appears to be preparing for another ballistic missile launch after marking its founding anniversary on Saturday, Radio Free Asia reported Friday. Workers started repairing an underground missile launch pad in Samjiyon, Ryanggang Province. Signs show that the regime is replacing an old Paektusan-1 or Taepodong-1 missile with a new Hwasong-14 intercontinental ballistic missile, sources told RFA. Rebar and cement bags camouflaged are being brought into the missile base secretly at dead of night every day. The underground missile bases in Samjiyon sit 2,000 m above sea level, and missiles launched from here can fly much farther away than from other known bases. A Cheong Wa Dae official said, "We're keeping a close watch on North Korean activities and discussing how to react if they provoke again." Meanwhile, the Nuclear Safety and Security Commission here said it has finally found some traces of radioactive xenon from the North's recent nuclear test. But a commission official said, "We can't say for sure whether that the material is proof of a nuclear test because the amount is too small." He added radioactivity is normal across the country. [Missile test]
• Fears grow of radiation leak from N. Korea's nuke site
  Posted : 2017-09-11 13:37 Updated : 2017-09-11 19:09 38 North, a U.S. website specializing in North Korea-related issues, has released two satellite images obtained before and after the Kim Jong-un regime's sixth nuclear test in Punggye-ri, Sept. 3. The left image shows undamaged slopes of a mountain surrounding the test site, while the right image shows the multiple landslides that took place nearby the North Portal, a tunnel there, Sept. 4. / Yonhap By Yi Whan-woo Concerns are growing of a possible leak of radioactive materials on North Korea's nuclear test site in Punggye-ri after its sixth nuclear test there on Sept. 3. [Nuclear test] [Radiation] [Hysteria]
• China ends radiation monitoring in border regions with North Korea
  By Liu Caiyu Source:Global Times Published: 2017/9/11 23:13:40 China has ended monitoring the environment in its northeast border regions on Sunday in response to a nuclear test conducted by North Korea on September 3. The Ministry of Environmental Protection's (MEP) National Nuclear Safety Administration said "We have stopped our emergency response because North Korea's sixth nuclear test did no damage to China's environment." The emergency response ended at 6pm on Sunday, according to a statement sent to the Global Times. The MEP led other government agencies in evaluating the radiation levels in China's northeastern border areas for eight days. The radiation levels were normal, the statement said. [Radiation] [Nuclear test]
• Nuclear Option Can No Longer Be Taboo for S.Korea
  September 05, 2017 13:07 The North Korean nuclear standoff escalated to a new level with the latest bomb test on Sunday. Defense Minister Song Young-moo appeared before the National Assembly on Monday and said he believes North Korea succeeded in miniaturizing a nuclear warhead that can now be mounted on a ballistic missile. That means the North is ready to strike the South with a nuclear-tipped missile. Not only has North Korea stepped over the so-called "red line" set by South Korea, but may soon step over the line set by the U.S. by launching an functioning intercontinental missile. [Nuclearisation]
• Deterrence Believers Shoud Cheer the North Korean Bomb
  151 3 Sep, 2017 in Uncategorized by craig If the theory of nuclear deterrence holds true – and it is the only argument the supporters of WMD have got – then we should all be cheering the North Korean bomb. The logic of nuclear deterrence is that it is much better that every state has nuclear weapons, because then we can all deter each other. It is demonstrably true that possession of nuclear weapons is not a deterrent to other nations acquiring them. But it is supposed to deter other nations from using them. In which case, surely the more the merrier, so we can all deter each other. The madness of the argument is self-evident. We are borrowing hundreds of billions we cannot afford for Trident, yet in all the reams of analysis of what to do about North Korea, Trident never gets a mention. It is a system entirely useless even in the one situation in which it was supposed to be effective. [Trident] [Context] [Deterrence] [False analogy]
• Wind Blamed for Seoul's Failure to Confirm N.Korean Nuke Test
  September 07, 2017 12:25 The Nuclear Safety and Security Commission on Wednesday admitted it has failed to detect any radiation from North Korea's latest nuclear test. The NSSC and the Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety said air-sampling equipment on planes and ships and land radiation detection stations collected samples to find traces of radioactive xenon on Monday, a day after the North's latest nuclear test. Radioactive xenon rarely exists in natural environments and is usually created by nuclear explosions and therefore considered the "smoking gun" in detecting such tests. But none has been found. Two types of radioactive xenon exist -- Xe133 and Xe135. They can be used to determine whether uranium or plutonium were used depending on their ratios. But the agencies have had little success in collecting it to find clues after any North Korean nuclear tests. [Nuclear test] [Radiation]
• N.Korea's Nuke Test Area at Risk of Collapse
  By Lee Kil-seong September 06, 2017 09:35 The mountain where North Korea has conducted all its nuclear tests frequently is at risk of collapsing and spreading a massive dose of radiation across the region, the South China Morning Post reported Tuesday quoting Chinese experts. A research team at the University of Science and Technology of China in Hefei, Anhui Province analyzed shock waves caused by the blasts and concluded that five of the North's six nuclear tests were carried out in tunnels under the same mountain in Punggye-ri. "Its leader, geophysicist Wen Lianxing, said that based on data collected by more than 100 earthquake monitoring centres in China, the margin of error was no more than 100 metres," the daily said. [Nuclear test] [Punggye-ri]
• N.K. may fire ICBM on standard trajectory toward Pacific: Seoul
  2017/09/04 18:01 (ATTN: ADDS more details, background throughout) SEOUL, Sept. 4 (Yonhap) -- North Korea may fire an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on a standard trajectory toward the North Pacific around its key anniversary following its sixth nuclear test, South Korea's spy agency said Monday. The National Intelligence Service (NIS) told lawmakers in a closed session that Pyongyang may lob the missile around the anniversary of the regime's foundation slated for Saturday or the establishment of the ruling Workers' Party of Korea on Oct. 10. North Korea fired ballistic missiles, including two ICBMs fired in July, at a lofted angle to prevent them from crossing over other countries including Japan. But Pyongyang lobbed a Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missile that flew over Japan last week. "There is a possibility that the North would fire an ICBM on a standard trajectory," the NIS was quoted as saying by lawmakers. [ICBM] [Missile test] [NIS]
• Blast from N.Korea's New Nuke 'Could Obliterate Seoul'
  By Yu Yong-weon September 04, 2017 12:51 North Korea conducted a test of a nuclear weapon on Sunday believed to have been in the 50 to 100 kt range, way more than the 15-kt bomb dropped on Hiroshima. The North is also thought to be close to miniaturizing a nuclear weapon so it can be mounted on a ballistic missile, though it is unclear whether the weapon was really a hydrogen bomb, as the North has claimed. The damage from a blast of that magnitude could raze all of Seoul and parts of surrounding Gyeonggi Province. South Korean military experts estimate the strength of the latest North Korean nuclear test at around 50 kt, which is smaller than estimates by the U.S., China and Japan. A military expert said, "50 kt marks the borderline between a boosted fission bomb and hydrogen bomb," which would result in leveling an area 1.7 times greater than the devastation in Hiroshima. [Nuclear war] [Seoul] [Military option] [Retaliation]
• North Korea: Tremor detected in sign of possible nuclear test
  satellite images of North Korea's Punggye-ri test site A large earth tremor has been detected in North Korea, raising speculation that the country has carried out its sixth nuclear test. US seismologists said the 6.3 magnitude quake in the north-east of the country was a "possible explosion". It is in the area where the North has conducted previous nuclear tests. The tremor comes hours after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was pictured with what state media said was a new type of hydrogen bomb. State media said the device could be loaded on to a ballistic missile. Neither claim could be independently verified. South Korea officials said the quake took place in Kilju County, where the North's Punggye-ri nuclear test site is situated. ?How advanced is North Korea's nuclear programme? ?Have North Korea's missile tests paid off? ?What can the outside world do? ?Can the US defend itself against North Korea? The South's military chiefs said the North was "presumed" to have conducted a nuclear test. [Nuclear test]
• North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: New Media Reports of an Imminent Sixth Test Again Cannot be Corroborated
  By: 38 North August 30, 2017Satellite Imagery A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Frank V. Pabian, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. and Jack Liu On Monday, August 28, 2017, media reports began surfacing which claimed that South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) had informed South Korean officials (in a closed-door session) that the NIS detected indications of preparations for another nuclear test at the DPRK’s Punggye-ri underground nuclear test site.[1] One report more specifically stated that another test could fall on September 9, which is both a North Korean national holiday (the Day of the Foundation of the Republic) and coincident with the date chosen by North Korea to conduct it most recent, and fifth, nuclear test last year.[2] However, commercial satellite imagery from August 27, 2017 does not provide observable corroborative evidence that the DPRK is about to conduct another underground nuclear test immediately. The situation is reminiscent of when we responded to similar reports in mid-June that a nuclear test was imminent at that time.[3] Nonetheless, we remain firm in our previous assessments that the DPRK has, since April 2017, continued to maintain the site at a high state of readiness such that it could conduct a test on short notice, whenever the political decision is made to proceed with another test or tests. It is just that we cannot report that there is any observable evidence on the most recent commercial satellite imagery to show that such a decision has already been made. [Nuclear test] [Media]
• The newest North Korean missile "Hwasong-12" (HS-12)
  Norbert Brügge, Germany Update: 30.08.2017 Current launch (Aug. 29, 2017) An earlier test launch 2017, May 14 -- North Korea has successfully tested its new HS-12 in flight again. Some unsharp pictures of the main and steering engines Last analysis: The new HS-12 missile is up to now a mystery. In any case, it is a single-stage rocket with a diameter of about 1.50 m. The cablel duct is on the entire length not interrupted and there is no indication of a stages separation plane. The engine bay suggests that the missile uses not a SLBM-like engine. The cable duct ends higher up and it is to see a slightly conical skirt with weld seam, which means that an engine is used not inside the tank as for HS-10 or HS-13. In addition, the bottom in the skirt is plane. The assumption, the missile uses the recently tested engine (one combustor of RD-250) is probably true. The added steering engines comes from the HS-13 (R-27 origin). The takeoff thrust is approximately 464 kN. The fuel would be consumed after 120 seconds. The WH is equipped with a telemetry antenna and obviously also with a extra PBV. [Hwasong-12] [PBV]
• N.Korea Can Fire Missile from Anywhere Now
  August 31, 2017 12:43 North Korea seems capable of firing missiles from pretty much anywhere now, having fired them from 21 sites between 1984 and this Tuesday, according to a report. Tuesday's ballistic missile that flew over Japan was the first to be fired from a commercial airport, which brought the total to 21, VOA quoted the report from the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. A medium-range ballistic missile is being launched from Pyongyang Sunan International Airport on Tuesday, in this photo from the Rodong Sinmun on Wednesday. Most ballistic missiles were fired from two sites -- the missile bases in Wonsan and Gitdaeryong, both in Kangwon Province -- with 20 missiles launched from each. Missiles were launched in Wonsan from May 2013 until April 2015, and the base in Gitdaeryong has been in use since July 2006, with the last missile fired from there only last week. A launch site in Hwadae-gun, North Hamgyong Province was used for 17 missile launches until April 2009, including the first ballistic missile test in April 1984. But no missile has been tested there since 2012. The CNS’s director Jeffrey Lewis told VOA, "The missiles are mobile, so they can really launch them from any place..." [Mobility] [Nuclear capability] [Deterrence]

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AUGUST 2017

• Why Did N.Korea Fire Missile Over Japan?
  By Yu Yong-weon August 30, 2017 11:10 The rocket North Korea fired over Japan on Tuesday was most likely a Hwasong-12 medium-range ballistic missile. This would be the first time the North fired a medium-range ballistic missile at a normal trajectory instead of a high angle. The missile was launched from Pyongyang Sunan International Airport and flew about 2,700 km at a maximum height of 550 km. The last Hwasong-12 the North fired on May 14 flew at a high angle, reaching an altitude of some 2,110 km but coming down after about 780 km. If fired at about 30 to 45 degrees, the missile could have flown between 5,000 and 6,000 km, experts speculated at the time. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un watches the launch of a Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missile in Pyongyang on Tuesday, in this grab from [North] Korean Central TV on Wednesday. /Yonhap Shin Won-sik, a former vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff here, said, "It seems that the North controlled the payload and fuel amount of the latest missile so that it flew about half distance of its maximum range." A high-angle trajectory would have made an atmospheric re-entry test more difficult than a normal trajectory because the speed and temperature of the warhead fall lower. That means the North had little choice but to fire it in the direction of Japan. Japanese media reported that the missile broke into three pieces during flight, suggesting that the attempted re-entry failed. Some experts said the first-stage rocket booster, the payload covering and the payload itself fell off. The National Intelligence Service told the National Assembly Intelligence Committee the aim of the firing was to show that North Korea's threat of attacking the U.S. territory of Guam "can become a reality" and that it will not cave in to UN Security Council resolutions and joint South Korea-U.S. drills. It was the first time the North fired a ballistic missile from a civilian airport. [Hwasong-12]
• North Korean IRBM launch rattles Japan
  Posted on : Aug.30,2017 17:32 KST Modified on : Aug.30,2017 17:32 KST Photos released by the Rodong Shinmun show the launch of the Hwasong-12 IRBM which flew over the Japanese island of Hokkaido on the morning of Aug. 29 before breaking apart in the Pacific Ocean.. (Yonhap News) Abe calls action a “serious threat that we have not seen before” At 5:57 am on Aug. 29, North Korea fired an intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM) that passed through Japanese airspace. The Japanese government announced that the North Korean missile flew above Cape Erimo on the island of Hokkaido from 6:05 to 6:07 before splashing down in the waters of the Pacific Ocean about 1,180 km east of Cape Erimo at 6:12. South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) stated that this was the first time that North Korea had launched a missile from the Pyongyang Sunan International Airport, located in the vicinity of Pyongyang, and estimated that the missile had traveled for a total of 2,700 km. It is unusual for North Korea to shoot a missile through Japanese air space without providing any advance warning. “The violent act of launching a missile that passes through our airspace is a grave and serious threat that we have not seen before,” said Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe while presiding over a meeting of the National Security Council. The Japanese Foreign Ministry said that this was the first time for a North Korean missile to pass through Japanese airspace without advance warning since a Taepodong-1 launch in 1998. Japan assessed this missile to be the Hwasong-12 IRBM that North Korea threatened to use in an “enveloping strike” around Guam. [IRBM] [Hwasong-12]
• Nuclear Terrorism and Spent Fuel Storage
  Steven Aoki August 31, 2017 This essay by Steven Aoki suggests that “An attack on a reactor spent fuel pool aimed at creating a loss-of-coolant accident and subsequent radiation release may not be the most likely form of terrorism, but the potentially catastrophic consequences requires responsible regulators and government officials to think about ways to reduce the risk. Significant steps and important technical studies have already been initiated in several countries, in part because of the lessons learned from the Fukushima accident.” Steven Aoki is former Associate Administrator for Counterterrorism and Counterproliferation at the US Department of Energy. [Nuclear fuel] [Nuclear terrorism]
• N.Korea 'Finishes Preparations for Another Nuke Test'
  August 29, 2017 09:46 North Korea has finished preparations for a fresh nuclear test at the Punggye-ri test site, the National Intelligence Service here told lawmakers Monday. It said the preparations are complete at the No. 2 and 3 tunnels, and excavation also appears to have resumed at the No. 4 tunnel in April after being suspended last year. The NIS was briefing lawmakers in the National Assembly's Intelligence Committee. Committee members quoted the NIS as saying the North has been overhauling a Sinpo-class submarine at the Sinpo shipyard since late July, and ther [Nuclear test] [NIS]
• Gov't Backtracks Over N.Korean Missile Firing
  By Jeong Woo-sang August 29, 2017 11:03 The Joint Chiefs of Staff on Monday admitted that three projectiles North Korea fired last Saturday were short-range ballistic missiles. Shortly after the launch on Saturday, Cheong Wa Dae claimed the projectiles were probably improved 300-mm artillery rockets, contradicting a widely reported U.S. assessment that they were ballistic missiles. Ballistic missile launches violate UN Security Council resolutions and entail international sanctions, but artillery rounds do not. A JCS official said the military initially believed that the launch involved either 300-mm rockets or short-range projectiles "considering maximum height, range and angle of fire." "But a further assessment with the U.S. found that they were most probably short-range ballistic missiles," he added. The military claims it told Cheong Wa Dae shortly after the launch that artillery rounds were only one possibility among others. Opposition lawmakers accused the presidential office of deliberately downplaying the provocation to appease North Korea. But a high-ranking Cheong Wa Dae official defended the announcement. "Whether it was an artillery round or missile, the impact is the same. It's clear that it was a low-intensity provocation." [Missile test] [Artillery] [Intelligence]
• Some Myths Never Die: Will Nuclear Testing at Punggye-ri Trigger a Volcanic Eruption from Mt. Paektu?
  By: Frank Pabian August 28, 2017 Sensationalist media reports continue to resurface with frightening headlines concerning the potential for a future North Korean underground nuclear test to trigger a catastrophic volcanic eruption of Mt. Paektu (a large “stratovolcano” located on the border with China, 114 kilometers to the northwest of the Punggye-ri nuclear test site). As recently as August 23, a Forbes article raised the scary specter of a future high-yield nuclear explosive test (involving a “hydrogen bomb”) serving as such an accidental trigger. Earlier this year, similar reporting was published by CNN, the Express and the Daily Mail. Mt. Paektu (with its crater lake) is frequently used as a backdrop for significant announcements on North Korean Television (as was the case here in July 2017 when noted anchorwoman, Ri Chun Hee, announced a successful ICBM launch). In May, 38 North published a commentary on the initial CNN report on May 9 (“Debunking the Volcanic Panic”), which provided historical precedent for nuclear testing NOT triggering volcanic eruptions as evidenced by multi-megaton nuclear tests conducted by the United States in Alaska near three stratovolcanoes all located within 90 kilometers of the shot point. The largest test, roughly 5 megatons (codenamed Cannikin), detonated on November 6, 1971 and generating a body wave magnitude of 6.9, did not trigger any volcanic eruptions (or earthquakes) in the seismically active Aleutian Islands, a volcanic arc consisting of 62 active and dormant volcanoes. As we stated in that commentary, “While it might, at first, seem reasonable to derive cause and effect between nuclear testing and natural earth movements, closer inspection of the comparative scales of these events, along with a review of past US nuclear test experience in similar geologic environments, suggests that the likelihood of any such a connection is extremely remote.” [Nuclear test] [Volcano] [Hysteria] [Media]
• North Korea launches Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile over Hokkaido
  Posted on : Aug.29,2017 15:27 KST Modified on : Aug.29,2017 15:27 KST The move followed the shooting of three ballistic missiles into the East Sea just two days earlier North Korea’s launch of a missile on Aug. 29 was “assessed to be an Intermediate Ballistic Range Missile (IRBM),” the Blue House announced, while also terming the situation as being as “very serious” and representing “a sensitive issue for the international community.” Yoon Young-chan, the Senior Secretary for Communication, gave a briefing at the Blue House press room earlier today and stated, “President Moon jae-in received a report this morning from Chung Eui-young, Chief of the Blue House National Security office, and ordered him to display our ability to severely punish North Korea. In accordance with this, at about 9:20 am, four F15K fighter jets carrying eight MK84 bombs took part in a bombing exercise at the Victory Training Range in Taebaek, Gangwon Province.” The government also announced it would release video of the launch of the Hyunmoo 2 ballistic missile which took place on Aug. 24. [Missile test] [IRBM] [Hwasong-12]
• [Editorial] Government response creates confusion about recent NK missile launch
  Posted on : Aug.29,2017 15:24 KST Modified on : Aug.29,2017 15:24 KST People at Seoul Station watch news coverage of North Korea’s launch of three short range missiles into the East Sea on Aug. 26. (Yonhap News) The South Korean military announced on Aug. 28 that it has concluded in a joint assessment with the US that three projectiles fired by North Korea on Aug. 26 was likely a short-range ballistic missile. This contradicts an announcement made by the Blue House two day ago that the projectiles had been fired by a “300mm-calibre multiple rocket launcher.” On Aug. 26, North Korea fired three short-range projectiles into the East Sea. Two of the projectiles reached an altitude of more than 50 km and traveled for 250 km. In a written briefing that followed a meeting of the standing committee of the National Security Council, the Blue House said that the projectile had presumably been fired by “an upgraded 300mm-calibre multiple rocket launcher.” But at the time the US Pacific Command expressed a conflicting opinion in a statement that said the projectile was probably a short-range ballistic missile (SRBM). [Missile test] [Intelligence]
• North Korea proves it has ability to strike Guam
  Posted : 2017-08-29 16:30 Updated : 2017-08-29 19:25 By Kim Rahn North Korea's launch of a ballistic missile Tuesday showed that its threat to strike Guam was not a bluff, as the missile's range was within the reach of the U.S. territory. Although the direction of the missile was not southward toward Guam, the test-firing proved Pyongyang's earlier threat for an "enveloping fire around Guam" is feasible. The missile, which the South Korean authorities suspect to be a Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), flew more than 2,700 kilometers at a maximum altitude of about 550 kilometers, according to the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS). The range showed a missile fired from North Korea could reach Guam, about 3,000 kilometers away. [Missile test] [Hwasong-12] [Guam]
• Next target Guam, North Korea says
  By Brad Lendon and Joshua Berlinger, CNNUpdated 0625 GMT (1425 HKT) August 30 • North Korea fired a missile over Japan Tuesday, first ever over the island • Trump said "all options are on the table" in regards to the North Korean threat (CNN)North Korea's launch of a missile over Japan was a prelude to more military operations directed at the American territory of Guam, North Korean state media warned Wednesday. The country's state-run Korean Central News Agency reported leader Kim Jong Un presided over the dawn launch Tuesday of the "ultra-modern rocket system," the first missile ever fired from the capital Pyongyang. North Korean officials told CNN in Pyongyang that Kim was "very satisfied with the performance of the missile." The intermediate-range missile, identified by the North Koreans as the Hwasong-12, flew over Japan, further fueling tensions between North Korea and the United States and its allies, Japan and South Korea. A photo released by North Korea state media appearing the show the launch of a missile which flew from North Korea over Japan on August 29. The launch was "the first step of the military operation of the (North Korean military) in the Pacific and a meaningful prelude to containing Guam," state media said. [Hwasong-12] [Missile test] [Guam]
• N.Korea Continues Nuclear Program
  August 28, 2017 09:41 North Korea is continuing to operate a 5 MW nuclear reactor and uranium enrichment plant in Yongbyon, North Pyongan Province, the International Atomic Energy Agency said in an annual report last week. "There were indications consistent with the reactor's operation, including steam discharges and the outflow of cooling water," the report said. "Construction work was undertaken on a building that adjoins the reported centrifuge enrichment facility." It said there has been increasing assembly of specific components at the construction site. The IAEA then urged Pyongyang to meet its obligations under UN Security Council resolutions and cooperate immediately with the IAEA in implementing the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. In 1994, the U.S. agreed to build the North a light-water nuclear reactor at Sinpo in North Hamgyong Province, whose waste cannot be turned into weapons-grade plutonium, if it suspended the Yongbyon reactor, but that plan fell apart in 2002. [Yongbyon]
• NASA Should Continue its Large Strategic Missions to Maintain United States’ Global Leadership in Space
  WASHINGTON – NASA’s large strategic missions like the Hubble Space Telescope, the Curiosity rover on Mars, and the Terra Earth observation satellite are essential to maintaining the United States’ global leadership in space exploration and should continue to be a primary component of a balanced space science program that includes large, medium, and smaller missions, says a new report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. However, controlling the costs of these large missions remains vital in order to preserve the overall stability of the program, the report finds. NASA’s large space science missions play critical roles in each of the agency’s four science divisions – astrophysics, earth science, heliophysics, and planetary science – and are needed to pursue compelling scientific questions. When faced with determining how to balance the development and operation of the largest flagship missions as part of a balanced program, NASA should seek guidance from the relevant National Academies decadal surveys and midterm reviews, as well as from other research-community based advisory bodies, said the committee that wrote the report. [Space] [Leadership]
• North Korea launches three missiles into sea, heightening tensions
  North Korean leader Kim Jong Un guides a target-striking contest of the special operation forces of the Korean People's Army to occupy islands in this undated picture provided by the Korean Central News Agency in Pyongyang on Aug. 25, 2017. (KCNA/Reuters) By Anna Fifield August 26 at 1:20 AM TOKYO — North Korea launched three missiles into the sea between the Korean Peninsula and Japan on Saturday morning, reigniting tensions after a month of heated rhetoric between Pyongyang and Washington and dispelling President Trump’s assertion that Kim Jong Un had come to “respect” him. The missiles appeared to be short-range, not the intercontinental ones capable of reaching the mainland United States that North Korea fired last month, and at least one of them quickly failed. Still, the latest launches underscore Kim’s continued focus on making strides in his weapons program and his continued defiance of international calls for him to desist. [Joint US military] [Tension] [Inversion] [Missile test]
• N.Korea Fires Several Projectiles in Possible Training Exercise
  VOA News August 26, 2017 08:34 North Korea early Saturday fired several short-range projectiles into the sea off its east coast from Kangwon province, South Korea's military said. The South Korean Office of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said the projectiles flew northeast for about 250 km into the sea. The firings may have been part of a military training exercise, the military said. The launch was the first by the North since it test-fired a missile on July 28 that could have been designed to reach 10,000 km, putting parts of the U.S. mainland within reach. [Joint US military] [Missile test]
• Kim Jong Un Inspects Chemical Material Institute of Academy of Defense Science
  Kim Jong Un, chairman of the Workers' Party of Korea, chairman of the State Affairs Commission of the DPRK and supreme commander of the Korean People's Army, gave field guidance to the Chemical Material Institute of the Academy of Defense Science. Shaking hands of officials who came out to greet him, respected Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un said that he came to learn about the situation of the institute and help its work. He noted that in recent years the institute has a lot of jobs in a patriotic drive for breaking through the cutting edge, whether they are known or not, true to the Workers' Party of Korea's policy of attaching importance to the defense science and technology and policy of the munitions industry. After looking round the newly-built room for the education in the revolutionary history and exhibition hall of scientific and technological achievements, he learned about the processes for manufacturing ICBM warhead tip and solid-fuel rocket engine. Acquainting himself with the processes for preform weaving by carbon fiber, chemical deposition, high pressure liquid deposition and final treatment, he learned about in detail the density of preform, deposition temperature, vacuum degree and deposition time in the chemical deposition process, deposition temperature, pressure, working medium and deposition frequency in the high pressure liquid deposition process and technological specifications in the final treatment process. He then made a field survey of the process for manufacturing solid-fuel rocket engine and specified tasks and ways for normalizing the production at a higher level. He set forth important tasks facing the institute. He instructed the institute to produce more solid-fuel rocket engines and rocket warhead tips by further expanding engine production process and the production capacity of rocket warhead tips and engine jets by carbon/carbon compound material. Highly appreciating that it is the pride of our Party to have such unassuming heroes, unit of patriotic scientists as the officials of this institute who have devoted themselves to carrying out the Party's policy of defense science, keeping in mind the pure single mind of loyalty to the Party, whether they are appreciated or not, and gave special thanks and special bonus to them in the name of the Party Central Committee. He had a photo session with the scientists, technicians and workers of the Chemical Material Institute of the Academy of Defense Science. Accompanying him were Jo Yong Won and Kim Jong Sik, vice department directors of the C.C., the Workers' Party of Korea. [Solid fuel] [Reentry]
• Kim Jong-un Inspects Missile Development Facility
  By Kim Myong-song August 24, 2017 10:49 North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has paid a visit to the Chemical Material Institute of the Academy of Defense Science, which is in charge of developing the North's ballistic missiles. The official [North] Korean Central News Agency on Wednesday said Kim "instructed the institute to produce more solid-fuel rocket engines and rocket warhead tips" by further expanding production process and capacity. It quoted Kim as praising researchers for developing a reliable re-entry vehicle that allows a warhead to survive the intense heat and friction of re-entering the atmosphere. The claims are seen as a rebuttal to South Korea and the U.S., which have said that the North still does not have that technology. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (left) talks with researchers during a visit to the Chemical Material Institute of the Academy of Defense Science, in this photo from the official Rodong Sinmun on Wednesday. A photo of Kim's visit in the state-run Rodong Sinmun daily shows a display titled "Pukguksong-3" in the background. Last year, North Korea test-fired Pukguksong-1 and 2, which are submarine-launched ballistic missiles. That suggests a fresh launch is imminent. Meanwhile, Jin Jong-hyop, the charge d'affaires of the North Korean Embassy in Russia, said in an interview with Russian media on Tuesday, "As you know, we have completed the preparation of the Guam strike. Everything will depend on whether the United States acts sensibly or not." Jin added, "If they do not do so, they will be shamed yet again on the Korean Peninsula in front of the whole world." [Solid Fuel] [Reentry]
• A Vulnerability Related To Dry Storage Of Spent Fuels
  Masahiro Kikuchi August 23, 2017 In this essay, Masahiro Kikuchi examines possibly effective barriers to a terrorist attack using anti-tank weapon on spent fuel stored in dry casks. He concludes that: “the facility operator should prepare an appropriate barrier to block the terrorist intrusion and an appropriate alert system for early detection of the breaking through the boundary of the site where the SF is stored.” [Nuclear terrorism]
• N.Korea's Satellite Pic of Guam Was 6 Years Old
  By Lee Yong-soo August 18, 2017 10:12 A satellite picture displayed to illustrate North Korea's ostensible plans to surround Guam with "enveloping fire" was at least six years old, analysis shows. The discovery fuels suspicion that the "detailed plan" was an elaborate bluff. The satellite picture of Andersen Air Force Base in Guam hung on the wall behind North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at Strategic Rocket Forces headquarters as he was briefed on the plans to strike the U.S. territory. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is being briefed on strike plans at Strategic Rocket Forces headquarters in this photo released by the official Korean Central News Agency on Tuesday. In the photo published by the official KCNA news agency, Kim is seen sitting behind a desk pouring glumly over a map showing a missile trajectory from Sinpo, North Korea to Guam in the Pacific Ocean. But Voice of America compared satellite photos from 2011 and 2017 and found that the photo in the picture was identical to a Google Earth image from 2011. It contains a deforested area that was to make room for a docking area for aircraft that was completed a year later as well as a building that was demolished in 2015. Nick Henson at Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation said the evidence suggests that North Korea is having a hard time getting hold of the up-to-date satellite images a modern military needs, chiefly because it has no satellites of its own. [Guam] [Surveillance] [Satellite] [Nuclear capability]
• N.Korean Missile Engines Supplied by Russia
  By Lee Kil-seong August 17, 2017 10:50 The government of Ukraine on Tuesday confirmed a U.S. media report that the engine of North Korea's Hwasong-14 intercontinental ballistic missile was Ukrainian in origin and apparently supplied to the North by Russia. But Ukraine claimed it merely built the engine and blamed Russia for letting it fall into North Korean hands. Earlier, the New York Times quoted Michael Elleman from the International Institute for Strategic Studies as saying, "It's likely that these engines came from Ukraine -- probably illicitly." Elleman added, "The big question is how many they have and whether the Ukrainians are helping them now." /Newsis According to Radio Free Asia, Yuriy Radchenko of the State Space Agency of Ukraine told reporters in Kiev on Tuesday that the engine was the same as the RD-250 manufactured at Ukraine's state-owned Yuzhmash plant until 2001. Radchenko added that 223 of the engines were made and all were supplied for Russia's space rockets. He denied that Ukraine sold them to North Korea and added Russia still owns the engines and blueprints. Russia denied the allegations and claimed that six to 10 engineers from Yuzhmash went to North Korea from March 30 to June 1 of last year and 12 to 16 others made the same trip a few years ago. Former Russian deputy prime minister Dmitry Rogozin said on Facebook that any attempt at reproducing the engines requires the help of Ukrainian experts, who have detailed blueprints and production knowhow. He claimed the engines may have been smuggled into the North. Ukraine was the key production base for missiles in the former Soviet Union. [Hwasong-14] [Engine] [Ukraine] [Russia]
• Despite Media’s Claims, North Korea Can’t Strike Continental US
  by Paul Gottinger Last month, North Korea conducted two missile tests that were designed to demonstrate that the isolated country had achieved a major advancement in its missile technology. North Korea’s missile tests on July 3 and July 28 were immediately declared by the mainstream press to be successful tests of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), which puts part or all of the US in range of a strike. Hawkish “experts” immediately sprung into action and stated the missile tests undeniably proved the North can now strike the United States. [Nuclear capability]
• NAPSNET SPECIAL REPORT BY DAVID F. VON HIPPEL AND PETER HAYES CONCERTED STRATEGIES FOR MANAGEMENT OF SPENT NUCLEAR FUEL IN NORTHEAST ASIA
  August 17, 2017 This special report updates Nautilus’ analysis of scenarios for nuclear fuel cycle cooperation in East Asia within the context of three different nuclear energy paths for the nations of the region. In each of our three nuclear capacity paths (Business as Usual, Minimum, and Maximum), China is responsible for most of the growth in nuclear capacity in the region. From 2015 capacity of about 80 GWe (gigawatts of electric power) region wide, regional capacity rises to about 230 GWe in the BAU case, 390 GWe in the MAX case, and 125 GWe in the MIN case, with most net growth capacity in the BAU and MIN cases taking place before 2035. [Nuclear fuel cycle]
• Korea delays lunar orbiter launch to 2020
  Posted : 2017-08-10 17:07 Updated : 2017-08-10 22:06 A drawing of test lunar orbiter under development by the Ministry of Science and ICT (MSIT) / Courtesy of MSIT By Yoon Sung-won Korea postponed the launch of its lunar orbiter to 2020 instead of next year, according to the government, Thursday. The Ministry of Science and ICT said it held a national space development committee meeting a day earlier and decided to give the lunar orbiter development project two more years. The ministry has conducted a thorough inspection on the progress, risk, and schedule of the orbiter development project earlier this year and concluded that it will be difficult to complete the project by 2018 as originally planned. "Accepting the opinion of the inspection committee, the ministry has extended the development period to five years from three years, and aims to launch it in December 2020," an MSIT official said. [Space]
• The US claim that North Korea has 60 nukes is a “dangerous exaggeration,” a nuclear expert says
  Posted on : Aug.10,2017 17:12 KST Modified on : Aug.10,2017 17:12 KST North Korea’s July 29 launch of the Hwasong-14 intercontinental ballistic missile. Last month, the US Defense Intelligence Agency concluded that North Korea has successfully developed a miniaturized nuclear warhead. A US intelligence agency concluded last month that North Korea has succeeded in developing a miniaturized nuclear warhead that can be loaded on an ICBM, reports say. Officials in South Korea and the US reportedly also estimate that North Korea currently has an arsenal of 60 nuclear weapons. But some experts believe such estimates are exaggerated. On Aug. 8, the Washington Post reported that the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), which reports to the Pentagon, concluded in a classified assessment of North Korea’s nuclear program last month that the North had developed nuclear weapons that can be carried by its ballistic missile delivery systems, including ICBMs. It is not known whether North Korea has successfully tested its miniaturized nuclear warheads, the newspaper said. In the same report, which is dated July 28, the DIA estimated that North Korea possesses as many as 60 nuclear weapons. This is significantly higher than an estimate made by Siegfried Hecker, who is regarded as one of the US’s leading nuclear experts. In an article published on North Korean affairs website 38 North in Sept. 2016, Hecker said that North Korea has “a stockpile of sufficient fissile material for approximately 20 bombs by the end of this year [2016].” And in April 2017, David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), estimated that North Korea had 30 nuclear weapons by the end of 2016. “The new assessment,” the Washington Post reported, “concludes that this critical milestone has been reached [. . .] crossing a key threshold on the path to becoming a full-fledged nuclear power.” But Hecker was critical of the assessment in the report, telling the Washington Post that “Overselling is particularly dangerous.” “I don’t believe they have sufficient missile or nuclear test experience to field a nuclear warhead that is sufficiently small, light and robust to survive an ICBM delivery,” Hecker told AFP, arguing that it would take five more years for North Korea to acquire an “adequately robust reentry vehicle.” [Nuclear weapons] [Hecker] [Hwasong-14] [Reentry] [Nuclear capability]
• Korean nuclear policy stuck in limbo
  Posted : 2017-08-09 14:18 Updated : 2017-08-09 19:03 Former Supreme Court justice Kim Ji-hyung, head of the public opinion committee on Shin Kori, gives a briefing at the third meeting of the committee at the Government Complex in Seoul last week. / Yonhap Experts raise problems of public opinion committee on Shin Kori By Park Jae-hyuk A majority of experts have been dissatisfied with the work of the public opinion committee on reactors 5 and 6 at the Shin Kori Nuclear Power Plant in Ulsan, regardless of their stances on atomic energy. The committee was launched late last month after the temporary suspension of construction of the two reactors. It has declared it will act as just an advisory body, unlike the government's initial plan to follow the final decision made by the so-called "citizen jurors" selected by the committee. Ten experts interviewed by The Korea Times generally agreed the committee has a long way to go. They are from the fields of nuclear power, environmental studies, sociology and law. [Nuclear energy]
• Would the military really have to obey a Trump command to fire a nuclear weapon?
  President Donald J. Trump, Vice President Mike Pence and National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster meet with service members in the White House in Washington on July 18. (Michael Reynolds / EPA) Anthony J. Colangelo At a security conference late last month, the commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet was asked what he would do if President Trump ordered him “to make a nuclear attack on China.” The commander, Adm. Scott Swift, answered promptly that he would, framing the issue as one of democratic governance and civilian control of the military. “Every member of the U.S. military has sworn an oath … to obey the officers and the president of the United States as the commander in chief appointed over us,” he said. But is that quite right? Isn’t there such a thing as an illegal order? And if so, what kind of right or, more accurately, what kind of duty exists to disobey it? [Nuclear weapons] [Legality] [Liberal]
• N.Korea Conducted Tests of Sub-Launched Missiles
  By Yu Yong-weon August 02, 2017 11:52 North Korea conducted an ejection test of a missile's "cold-launch system" at a naval shipyard in Sinpo, South Hamgyong Province on Sunday, CNN quoted a U.S. defense official as saying Monday. It was fourth such test this year and the third in July alone. "The U.S. military has detected 'highly unusual and unprecedented levels' of North Korean submarine activity and evidence of an 'ejection test,'" CNN added. The "cold-launch system" uses high-pressure steam to propel a missile out of the launch canister into the air and let the engine ignite. It aims to prevent the heat from the engine from damaging the submarine or submersible barge that launches the missile. If the North succeeds in developing both land-based and submarine-based ballistic missiles, it would have two-thirds of what has been described as a "strategic triad" of land, air and sea-based nuclear attack capabilities. The regime recently sent a diesel-powered Romeo-class sub about 100 km out to sea in international waters from the East Sea and outfitted a Sinpo-class sub with a possible missile launch tube, U.S. defense officials told CNN. [SLBM]

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JULY 2017

• N. Korean TV discloses footage of midnight missile launch [VIDEO]
  Posted : 2017-07-29 21:24 Updated : 2017-07-29 21:27 A test-fire of the Hwasong-14 missile was disclosed by Pyongyang's Korean Central Television, July 28. / Yonhap North Korea's state-run television on Saturday disclosed an edited footage of its test-fire of an intercontinental range ballistic missile conducted the previous night. According to the video footage running 2 1/2 minutes, the Hwasong-14 missile was moved on a transport erector launcher, known as a TEL, before being fired from a ground-based launch pad. The method of launch was similar to one disclosed in a separate TV footage released on July 5 following North Korea's first intercontinental range ballistic missile launch. Earlier, Pyongyang's official KCNA claimed that the North successfully launched another intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) Friday night following its first test in early July, noting that the missile flew 998 kilometers for about 47 minutes into the East Sea after reaching a maximum altitude of 3,724.9 km. [Hwasong-14] [Test]
• Early Observations of North Korea’s Latest Missile Tests
  By: Michael Elleman July 28, 2017WMD On July 4, 2017, North Korea conducted its first test of a two-stage Hwasong-14 ballistic missile, which reached an apogee of about 2,800 km. If flown on a standard trajectory, this means the Hwasong-14 would have a maximum range in excess of 7,500 km—intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) range—and may be able to reach the US west coast if armed with a warhead weighing 650 kg or less. However, the Hwasong-14 tested on July 4 was not optimally designed to achieve maximum range. Instead, it appears to have been a prototype designed to maximize the probability of a successful maiden flight by relying on flight-proven stages. [Hwasong-14] [Test]
• Keeping Up Appearances: Low-Level Site Maintenance Continues at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site
  By: 38 North July 27, 2017 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Frank V. Pabian, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., and Jack Liu. Analysis of commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site from July 11 and July 13 remains consistent with our previous assessment that while no significant new activity can be observed, additional nuclear tests could occur with little to no notice, once the North Korean leadership makes the decision to do so. Throughout the site, low levels of activity continue, including general maintenance, landscaping and vegetable gardening in the greenhouse. Overall, the site remains at a seemingly high state of readiness for future testing. [Nuclear test] [Punggye-ri]
• South Korea considers a nuclear arsenal to counter the North
  By Stuart Leavenworth July 28, 2017 1:07 PM SEOUL, South Korea No longer sure they can rely on the United States, an increasing number of South Korean lawmakers say their country should develop its own nuclear arsenal to deter an attack by Kim Jong Un, their belligerent neighbor to the north. North Korea’s rapid missile advances, including a successful test of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in July and another missile test on Friday, are reviving calls for South Korea to assert its “nuclear sovereignty.” South Koreans are wary of President Donald Trump’s isolationist rhetoric and his calls for Asian allies to shoulder more of the defense burdens borne by the U.S. military. [Nuclearisation] [Moon Jae-in]
• North Korea Launches Ballistic Missile, the Pentagon Says
  By Choe Sang-Hun and Eileen Sullivan July 28, 2017 SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea launched a ballistic missile on Friday that traveled farther than its first test of a similar missile earlier this month, , officials from the United States, South Korea and Japan reported. South Korean officials have said that in the earlier, July 4th test of the Hwasong-14, the North’s ICBM demonstrated a range capable of reaching Alaska, but that it remains unclear whether the North has mastered all technologies needed to deliver a nuclear warhead to targets in the continental United States. In Tokyo on Friday, Japan’s chief cabinet secretary, Yoshihide Suga, said the latest North Korean missile flew for about 45 minutes before landing off Hokkaido, the northernmost Japanese island. The flight time suggests that the missile may have a range greater than any the North has tested previously. [Missile test]
• North Korea fires another missile, its latest step toward putting the U.S. within reach
  By Anna Fifield July 28 at 3:17 PM TOKYO — North Korea has taken another bold step toward achieving its stated goal of being able to send a nuclear weapon to the U.S. mainland, firing an intercontinental ballistic missile late Friday that highlights the regime’s rapid technological progress. The missile flew almost straight up for 45 minutes and reached a height of about 2,300 miles before crashing into the sea off Japan. But if it had been launched on a normal trajectory, the missile could theoretically have reached Chicago and perhaps even New York, experts said. This latest provocation compounds the problem facing the Trump administration and North Korea’s neighbors: how to stop the regime of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un from making progress with its nuclear weapons program. [Missile test] [Threat] [Hysteria]
• N.Korea Can Field Intercontinental Nuke 'Within a Year'
  By Yu Yong-weon, Cho Yi-jun July 27, 2017 09:18 The Pentagon believes North Korea can field a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile that could strike the U.S. mainland within a year, the Washington Post reported Tuesday. The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency said there have been "surprising technical advances" in the North's recent missile tests. The assessment "shaves a full two years off the consensus forecast for North Korea's ICBM program," the daily wrote. The North on July 4 tested a Hwasong-14 ballistic missile can fly 7,000 to 8,000 km. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un watches preparations for the test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile in an undisclosed location on July 4. /AP-Yonhap The DIA believes the North Korean regime can produce a "reliable, nuclear-capable ICBM program" sometime in 2018, the paper said. That means that "by next year the program will have advanced from prototype to assembly line." But the South Korean government and military disagree. They believe the North has not yet perfected atmospheric re-entry technology, a core point in ICBM development, and will still need two to three more years. The National Intelligence Service told the National Assembly Intelligence Committee on July 11 that the North has not yet obtained the re-entry technology for nuclear warheads. The AN/TPS-29, a tansportable air search radar, and PAC-3 interceptor are deployed at Osan Air Base in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province on Wednesday amid fears of another North Korean missile test. /Newsis Mac Thornberry, the chairman of the House Committee on Armed Services, said on Tuesday that the U.S. has been negligent in missile defense over the past eight years and called for "powerful and prompt" measures to protect the U.S. and its allies. Meanwhile, Washington is expected to conduct another THAAD interceptor missile test in Alaska on Saturday, the second since July 11. [ICBM] [Capability]
• Iran claims successful rocket test, move likely to anger U.S.
  Simorgh rocket is launched and tested at the Imam Khomeini Space Centre, Iran, in this handout photo released by Tasnim News Agency on July 27, 2017. Tasnim News Agency/Handout via REUTERS DUBAI (Reuters) - Iran has successfully tested a rocket that can deliver satellites into orbit, state television reported on Thursday, an event likely to raise tensions with the United States because of its potential use in a ballistic missile. Washington has said Iran is defying a U.N. resolution calling on it not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons. Tehran denies it has missiles designed to carry nuclear warheads. "The Imam Khomeini Space Centre was officially opened with the successful test of the Simorgh (Phoenix) space launch vehicle," state television said. "The Simorgh can place a satellite weighing up to 250 kg (550 pounds) in an orbit of 500 km (311 miles)." [SLV] [Iran confrontation] [Renege]
• N.Korea Prepares Another Missile Test
  July 26, 2017 11:03 North Korea seems to be preparing another ballistic missile test this week, CNN reported Monday quoting a Pentagon official. On U.S. military satellite images, "transporter vehicles carrying ballistic missile launching equipment were seen arriving in Kusong, North Korea on Friday," it said. Kusong is a launch site in North Pyongan Province. "The official said that when such equipment is seen, a launch could occur within six days," CNN added. This would coincide with July 27, the 64th anniversary of the armistice of the Korean War. "Continuous movements of a launch vehicle have been detected in North Pyongan Province," a government source in Seoul also said on Tuesday. "South Korean and U.S. military authorities are keeping and eye on the mobile launcher, which is capable of firing a missile anytime." Meanwhile, the U.S. is going to conduct another test of a THAAD missile interceptor that will be launched from the Pacific Spaceport Complex in Kodiak, Alaska on Saturday, according to the U.S. Missile Defense Agency. This will be a second such test since July 11. [Missile test]
• Signs detected of another upcoming ICBM or IRBM test by North Korea
  Posted on : Jul.26,2017 17:31 KST Modified on : Jul.26,2017 17:31 KST Media reports also show China possibly preparing for crisis along North Korean border by mobilizing troops North Korea’s July 4 launch of the Hwasong-14 intercontinental ballistic missile (Yonhap News) On July 24, a CNN report quoted a Pentagon official as saying that North Korea appeared to be preparing to launch another missile this week. This official reportedly said that trucks carrying equipment for launching ballistic missiles had arrived at Kusong in North Pyongyan Province on July 21 and that launches can typically be carried out within six days of such equipment’s deployment. The sixth day after July 21 would be July 27, the anniversary of the signing of the armistice agreement that ended the Korean War. Kusong is a city where North Korea occasionally test launches its missiles, including the KN-17 medium-range ballistic missile launched in May. [Missile test]
• North Korea could cross ICBM threshold next year, U.S. officials warn in new assessment
  Report: North Korea can strike U.S. with nuclear ICBM by next year According to a confidential assessment by the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency, North Korea will be able to field a reliable, nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile as early as next year. (The Washington Post) By Ellen Nakashima, Anna Fifield and Joby Warrick July 25 at 1:38 PM North Korea will be able to field a reliable, nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile as early as next year, U.S. officials have concluded in a confidential assessment that dramatically shrinks the timeline for when Pyongyang could strike North American cities with atomic weapons. The new assessment by the ­Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), which shaves a full two years off the consensus forecast for North Korea’s ICBM program, was prompted by recent missile tests showing surprising technical advances by the country’s weapons scientists, at a pace beyond what many analysts believed was possible for the isolated communist regime. [Nuclear capability]
• U.S. Watching Suspicious N.Korean Sub
  By Yu Yong-weon July 24, 2017 10:48 The U.S. military has ramped up surveillance of a North Korean submarine that has been conducting "unusual activities" in the East Sea for about a week, NHK reported Sunday. Officials in Seoul declined to confirm any military operation against the sub. "The Romeo-class diesel submarine has been engaged in activities for about a week... Activities by submarines of this class in the area usually last about four days," NHK added. The 1,800-ton diesel subs were introduced in the 1960s and do not have the capacity to fire ballistic missiles. Each 76 m-long sub has a crew of some 50 sailors and is armed with 14 torpedoes and about 20 mines. CNN last Thursday said the U.S. "is observing the sub via reconnaissance imagery and the officials said the submarine's patrol had taken it farther [than] it has ever gone, sailing some 100 km out to sea in international waters. The submarine's activity was different than the typical training activity usually observed closer to shore." Citing the CNN report, the website 38 North at Johns Hopkins University said, "While there are several possible explanations, the most likely is preparations for a test in the near future of an updated Pukguksong-1 [KN-11] submarine-launched ballistic missile or a potentially newer system." "Sinpo-class submarine and a submersible test stand barge have been repositioned" at the Sinpo shipyard, a possible sign of preparations for the recent submarine voyage, or perhaps for an upcoming missile test, it added. Back in August last year, the North successfully tested a submarine-launched missile that flew 500 km. [SLBM] [Media]
• US intelligence shows North Korean preparations for a possible missile test
  Barbara Starr-Profile-Image By Barbara Starr and Ryan Browne, CNN Updated 0449 GMT (1249 HKT) July 20, 2017 (CNN)CNN has learned that US intelligence indicates that North Korea is making preparations for another intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) or intermediate range missile test. Two administration officials familiar with the latest intelligence confirm there are indicators of test preparations that could lead to a potential launch in about two weeks. US satellites have detected new imagery and satellite-based radar emissions indicating North Korea may be testing components and missile control facilities for another ICBM or intermediate launch, officials say. The US is watching in particular for further testing of North Korean radars and communications that could be used in a launch. The next test launch would be the first since North Korea successfully launched an ICBM on July 4. [SLBM] [Missile test]
• Sinpo South Shipyard: Preparations for a New SLBM Test?
  By: 38 North July 20, 2017Satellite Imagery A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr. Recent media reports indicate that North Korea’s sole SINPO-class experimental ballistic missile submarine (SSBA) has been engaged in “‘unusual deployment activity’ over the past 48 hours,”[1] sailing approximately 100-km out into the East Sea (Sea of Japan). If correct, this would be the submarine’s longest known voyage to date. Most previous voyages have been far shorter and within the waters near its home port at the Sinpo South Shipyard. A 100-km voyage would also likely place the submarine in international waters—a first for the vessel. While there are several possible explanations, the most likely is preparations for a test in the near future of an updated Pukguksong-1 (KN-11) submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) or a potentially newer system. [SLBM] [KN-11]
• N.Korea Expected to Test Another Ballistic Missile
  By Cho Yi-jun July 21, 2017 10:31 North Korea seems poised to test another intercontinental ballistic missile or intermediate-range missile in the coming weeks, CNN reported Wednesday. CNN quoted two U.S. officials as saying they came to the conclusion based on analysis of satellite images. They believe the North "may be testing components and missile control facilities for another ICBM or intermediate launch," it added. The U.S. is keeping a close watch on North Korean radars and communications that could be used in another launch since it successfully tested a Hwasong-14 ICBM on July 4 that is believed to be capable of reaching the outlying states of Alaska or Hawaii. "North Korea is continuing to test components to launch a missile from a submarine," CNN said. "But the U.S. intelligence assessment is that program remains in early stages." "A North Korean submarine was spotted in international waters engaging in 'unusual activity,'" it added. The North's secretive missile test preparations are normally detected only a day or two before the launch. [Missile test]
• North Korea’s Yongbyon Facility: Probable Production of Additional Plutonium for Nuclear Weapons
  By: 38 North July 14, 2017Satellite Imagery A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., Mike Eley, Jack Liu and Frank V. Pabian. Summary Thermal imagery analysis of the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center indicates that from September 2016 through June 2017: The Radiochemical Laboratory operated intermittently and there have apparently been at least two unreported reprocessing campaigns to produce an undetermined amount of plutonium that can further increase North Korea’s nuclear weapons stockpile. This suggests batch rather than continuous processing of spent fuel rods from the 5 MWe Reactor during the period of analysis. Increased thermal activity was noted at the Uranium Enrichment Facility. It is unclear if this was the result of centrifuge operations or maintenance operations. Centrifuge operations would increase the North’s enriched uranium inventory; however, based on imagery alone, it is not possible to conclude whether the plant is producing low or highly enriched uranium. [Uranium] [Yongbyon] [Intelligence]
• Australian government confirms it secretly tested hypersonic missiles that fly at 10,000km/h in a South Australian desert - after locals spotted mysterious mushroom clouds
  • Australian government confirms successful secret tests of hypersonic missiles • Minister for Defence Marie Payne says tests could 'revolutionise air travel' • Hypersonic missiles can travel over 10,000km/h or five times the speed of sound By Sam McPhee For Daily Mail Australia The Australian Defence office has confirmed they have concluded successful tests of hypersonic missiles. Minister for Defence Marise Payne revealed the tests of the missiles at Woomera Test Range, which exceed speeds of 10,000km/h or more than five times the speed of sound. The government believe the results have 'the potential to revolutionise air travel, making it faster and cheaper to travel around the world and into space.' The Australian Defence office has confirmed they have concluded successful tests of hypersonic missiles Minister for Defence Marise Payne revealed the tests of the missiles at Woomera Test Range, which exceed speeds of 10,000km/h or more than five times the speed of sound Minister Payne said in a statement released on her website on Monday saying Australia is now a step closer to achieving hypersonic flight. 'There are key military applications of this technology and by understanding hypersonic flight, the Australian Defence Force will be in a better position to respond to future threats,' she said. Australian specialists had carried out the tests with the help of the US Air Force Research Laboratory, a partnership that has spanned over ten years. Airline giant Boeing also aided in the testing. The research has cost nearly $70 million and the two nations are now working to develop new phases for future testing. [Missile test] [Australia] [Double standards]
• 122 Nations Create Treaty to Ban Nuclear Weapons. North Korea is the only Nuclear Country Which Voted Yes
  By World Beyond War Global Research, July 09, 2017 On Friday the United Nations concluded the creation of the first multilateral nuclear disarmament treaty in over 20 years, and the first treaty ever to ban all nuclear weapons. While 122 nations voted yes, the Netherlands voted no, Singapore abstained, and numerous nations didn’t show up at all. The Netherlands, I’m told by Alice Slater, was compelled by public pressure on its parliament to show up. I don’t know what Singapore’s problem is. But the world’s nine nuclear nations, various aspiring nuclear nations, and military allies of nuclear nations boycotted. The only nuclear country that had voted yes to begin the process of treaty-drafting now completed was North Korea. That North Korea is open to a world without nuclear weapons should be fantastic news to numerous U.S. officials and media pundits apparently suffering traumatic fear of a North Korean attack — or it would be fantastic news if the United States were not the leading advocate for expanded development, proliferation, and threat of the use of nuclear weapons. The U.S. ambassador even staged a press conference to denounce this treaty when its drafting was initiated. [Nuclear disarmament]
• [Reporter’s notebook] Just what can North Korea’s ICBMs do?
  Posted on : Jul.8,2017 15:50 KST Modified on : Jul.8,2017 15:50 KST South Korean people watch a news report on Korean Central Television announcement of the claimed successful launch of an ICBM, at Seoul Station, July 4. (by Kim Jeong-hyo, staff photographer) Despite being one of the world’s poorest countries, North Korea is close to being able to reach the contiguous United States with ICBMs North Korea is an astonishing country. The CIA World Factbook's estimate of North Korea's 2015 GDP (based on purchasing power parity) is US$40 billion. This is 1/48 of South Korea's US$1.929 trillion and ranks the North as the world's 115th-largest economy. The per-capita GDP comes to a mere US$1,700, making North Korea one of the world's poorest countries. During the severe drought of the mid and late 1990s, deaths by starvation are estimated to have reached hundreds of thousands or perhaps even millions. The country survived that terrible time, but even now its children suffer from malnutrition and the North depends on support from the international community. Yet just a few days ago, a country like that somehow managed to launch a state-of-the-art ICBM that can travel thousands of kilometers. That makes North Korea the sixth country in the world to possess such missiles. We would be at a loss to find another example of such extreme incongruity. Is it possible to fill such a huge gap with just the strong will of a "supreme leader" who says he will "fight head-to-head against American imperialism"? [Hwasong-14] [Sidelined] [Envy]
• Three things to know about North Korea's missile tests
  With advances in its missile programme and the July 4 test, here are three technical milestones and why they matter. Alex Gatopoulos Since Kim Jong-un's ascendancy in December 2011, North Korea has accelerated its missile development programme, the tempo of tests increasing considerably from those under his father Kim Jong Il. After failures in 2016, North Korea has this year made genuine advances in its missile programme. [Hwasong-14]
• Historic Treaty Prohibiting Nuclear Weapons Adopted at United Nations
  Opens for Signature September 20, 2017 Comprehensively bans nuclear weapons research, possession, use, deterrence, and all forms of assistance in these prohibited acts Commits governments to criminalize all forms of nuclear weapons work, assistance, encouragement, etc. Contact: Greg Mello, 505-265-1200 (office), 505-577-8563 (cell) Albuquerque – This morning in New York, after years of preliminary discussions and negotiations that spanned several months, the United Nations Conference to Negotiate a Legally Binding Instrument to Prohibit Nuclear Weapons adopted the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. The Conference was led to this historic and successful conclusion by its President, Ambassador Elayne Whyte Gomez of Costa Rica. It is the first true multilateral nuclear disarmament treaty ever successfully negotiated. All other extant multilateral treaties deal primarily or exclusively with preventing proliferation. The vote, requested by the Netherlands, was 122 for adoption to 1 against (Netherlands), with 1 abstention (Singapore). At least 130 countries participated in the negotiations. [Nuclear disarmament]
• South Korea says North Korea’s launch apparently an early-stage ICBM
  Posted on : Jul.6,2017 16:36 KST Modified on : Jul.6,2017 16:36 KST The Hwasong-14 intercontinental ballistic missile, which North Korea claims to have launched successfully on July 4. (Yonhap News) Defense Ministry claims that Hwasong-14 has not yet demonstrated atmospheric re-entry technology North Korea claimed on July 5 that the Hwasong-14 missile it had test-launched the day before was an “ICBM capable of carrying a large and heavy nuclear warhead.” But the South Korean military said the launch could not be viewed as proof of ICBM development, citing the failure to confirm whether atmospheric re-entry technology had been established and the fact that the missile was launched from a fixed launch pad. In a July 5 issue report to the National Assembly National Defense Committee, the Ministry of National Defense tentatively concluded that the Hwasong-14 was an upgraded two-stage version of the Hwasong-12 (KN-17). The Hwasong-12, which was launched in May, is a single-stage missile with a liquid fuel engine and an estimated range of 4,000-5,000 km. A 4-minute, 37-second video of the Hwasong-14 launch shown on Korean Central Television that afternoon featured images of the stage separation taken by four cameras mounted on the missile’s fuselage and captions indicating the “separation of the first and second stages,” confirming that it was a two-stage missile. [Hwasong-14] [ICBM] [re-entry]
• In N. Korea’s claims are true, new ICBM could fly up to 6,700 km
  Posted on : Jul.5,2017 15:15 KST Modified on : Jul.5,2017 15:15 KST Images from Korean Central Television of the launch of a Hwasong-14 intercontinental ballistic missile, July 4. (Yonhap News) Blue House describes launch as “the most evolved missile that North Korea has released to date” After North Korea claimed on July 4 that it had successfully test launched the Hwasong-14 (KN-14), an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the next question is what effect this will have on the strategic balance on the Korean Peninsula. On the morning of July 5, the South Korean Ministry of National Defense identified the missile launched on July 4 as a new type of ICBM, after assessing the missile’s altitude, distance, flight time and stage separation. North Korea’s missile strike range has long been limited to South Korea and Japan. The North acquired the Scud B and C short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) for striking South Korea and the Rodong medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBM) for striking American forces in Japan at a relatively early period. But North Korea’s development of a missile that could go beyond Japan to hit the US base on Guam, in the Pacific Ocean, did not proceed until its successful test launch of the Hwasong-12 in May. If the Hwasong-14 that was just launched really is an ICBM as Pyongyang claims, then North Korea is now working on the development of a missile with the ability to strike the contiguous US (the lower 48 states, excluding Alaska and Hawaii). An ICBM that could threaten the contiguous US could serve as a powerful weapon for deterring a US military intervention in the event of a crisis on the Korean Peninsula. Thus if North Korea’s claim is true, there are likely to be major ramifications for the inter-Korean military standoff. [Hwasong-14] [Range]
• North Korea: Missile soared 1,741 miles high, marking successful test of ICBM
  North Korea fires ballistic missile ahead of G-20 summit Days before world leaders are set to meet for the Group of 20 summit, North Korea claims it successfully tested an intercontinental ballistic missile. (Reuters) By Emily Rauhala July 4 at 11:13 AM BEIJING — North Korea on Tuesday claimed it had successfully tested an intercontinental ballistic missile, a potential milestone in its campaign to develop a nuclear-tipped weapon capable of hitting the mainland United States. In a special announcement on state television, North Korea said it launched a Hwasong-14 missile that flew about 579 miles, reaching an altitude of 1,741 miles. The U.S. military said it was in the air for 37 minutes, a duration that signals a significant improvement in North Korea’s technology, experts said. South Korean and Japanese authorities are now looking into whether it was indeed an ICBM; U.S. Pacific Command’s first statement on the test called it an intermediate range missile. [Missile test] [ICBM]
• North Korea’s number of nuclear warheads doubles in one year, Swedish SIPRI reports
  Posted on : Jul.4,2017 16:25 KST Modified on : Jul.4,2017 16:25 KST World nuclear forces, share of world total by country, 2017 /SIPRI Report finds North Korea working toward ballistic missile that can hit the US, but haven’t accomplished that yet North Korea possessed an estimated 10 to 20 nuclear warheads as of Jan. 2017, Sweden’s Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reported on July 3. “North Korea appears to have made technical progress in its military nuclear and ballistic missile programmes,” SPIRI wrote in an annual global arms reduction report published that day. In its report last year, the institute estimated the maximum number of North Korean nuclear warheads at ten - meaning its estimate has doubled in the space of one year. [Nuclear capability] [Warhead] [Evidence]
• N. Korea claims successful launch of ICBM
  Posted : 2017-07-04 17:01 Updated : 2017-07-04 21:03 A North Korean Hwasong-14 intercontinental ballistic missile is launched in this photo released by the North's state-run Korean Central TV, Tuesday. The launch took place near Banghyon, North Pyongan Province, at 9:40 a.m. / Yonhap Moon denounces provocation, vows stern response By Jun Ji-hye North Korea claimed Tuesday that it had successfully launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of striking the continental United States. This marked the first time for the North to launch such a missile, believed to be able to fly more than 10,000 kilometers. The "special" announcement made by Pyongyang's state-run Korean Central TV came hours after South Korea and the United States as well as Japan detected the launch of the missile. The latest provocation came a few days after President Moon Jae-in and his U.S. counterpart Donald Trump agreed to open the door for dialogue during their summit Friday. The militaries of Seoul and Washington presumed, after a preliminary analysis, that the North may have launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), believed to have a maximum range of 5,000 kilometers. But the reclusive states' media claimed it was an ICBM, called the Hwasong-14, adding that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un observed the test. The Korea Central News Agency (KCNA) said the missile made a "39 minute flight along its pre-set trajectory before accurately hitting the target waters in the open sea in the East Sea." It also said, "The rocket was boosted to a maximum height of 2,802 kilometers and traveled a distance of 933 kilometers." North Korean leader Kim Jong-un signs an order for the test-firing of an intercontinental ballistic missile, Monday, a day before the North conducted the test. / Yonhap The media noted that the North fired the missile at a high angle as it did in previous launches to exert "no adverse effect on the security of neighboring countries." The launch took place near Banghyon, North Pyongan Province, at 9:40 a.m., according to Seoul's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS). After the North's announcement was made, President Moon urged the repressive state not to reach "the point of no return." "If the North crosses a red line and does not respond to a method agreed on by the leaders of South Korea and the United States to peacefully denuclearize the Korean Peninsula, nobody will know how we (Seoul and Washington) will react," Moon said during a meeting with former British Prime Minister David Cameron at Cheong Wa Dae, according to Moon's chief press secretary, Yoon Young-chan. Moon also called on China to play a more powerful role in resolving the issue, Yoon added. Earlier in the day, Moon presided over a National Security Council session, during which he also strongly denounced the provocation, the sixth since his inauguration and the second in less than a month. "If it turns out to be an ICBM, we will draw up relevant countermeasures to cope with it," Moon told security and foreign relations officials, according to Yoon. [Missile test] [ICBM] [Hwasong-14]
• China's moon program takes hit after Long March rocket failure [VIDEO]
  Posted : 2017-07-04 10:58 Updated : 2017-07-04 16:25 Spectators view the launch of the Long March 5 rocket near the Wenchang Satellite Launch Centre in Hainan Island on Sunday. Causes are still being investigated, but the second Long March mishap in two weeks was probably due more to bad luck than incompetence By Stephen Chen The unsuccessful rocket launch on Sunday could affect future Chinese space programmes, according to experts. Important projects including lunar exploration and space construction could be delayed, they said. The Long March 5 Y2, or CZ-5, is the newest and largest member of China's rocket fleet. It blasted off from Wenchang Space Launch Centre in southern China's Hainan province carrying the Sijian-18, an experimental communications satellite and the heaviest China ever built, at 7.23pm. An hour later, Chinese government declared the launch a failure. [SLV] [Failure]
• North Korea missile launch marks a direct challenge to Trump administration
  Days before world leaders are set to meet for the Group of 20 summit, North Korea claims it successfully tested an intercontinental ballistic missile. (Reuters) By Anne Gearan and Emily Rauhala July 4 at 8:09 PM North Korea’s latest test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile marks a direct challenge to President Trump, whose tough talk has yet to yield any change in Pyongyang’s behavior as the regime continues its efforts to build a nuclear weapon capable of striking the mainland United States. The missile — launched Tuesday in North Korea, late Monday in the United States — flew higher and remained in the air longer than previous attempts, enough to reach all of Alaska, experts said. They called it a major milestone for North Korea’s weapons program. [Missile test] [Hwasong-14] [Trump]
• Experts: North Korea’s missile was a ‘real ICBM’ — and a grave milestone
  By Joby Warrick July 4 at 8:36 PM The North Korean missile that soared high above the Sea of Japan on Tuesday was hailed by state-run television as a “shining success.” But to U.S. officials, it was a most unwelcome surprise: a weapon with intercontinental range, delivered years before most Western experts believed such a feat possible. Hours after the apparently successful test, intelligence agencies continued to run calculations to determine precisely how the missile, dubbed the Hwasong-14, performed in its maiden flight. But the consensus among missile experts was that North Korea had achieved a long-sought milestone, demonstrating a capability of striking targets thousands of miles from its coast. [ICBM] [Hwasong-14]
• North Korea’s Fast Track Missile Development: How Far It’s Come and Why it Has the U.S. on Edge
  Jun 29, 2017 | Analysis, DPRK, Peace and Militarism, Trump | 0 comments North Korea’s Fast Track Missile Development: How Far It’s Come and Why it Has the U.S. on Edge By Gregory Elich Since President Trump took office, North Korea has conducted a flurry of missile tests, triggering a wave of condemnation by U.S. media and political figures. The reaction contains more than an element of fear-mongering, and it is sometimes implied that once North Korea has an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), it is liable to launch an unprovoked attack on the U.S. mainland. [Missile tests] [US NK policy] [Deterrence] [Example]
• N. Korea marks anniversary of strategic force, touting missile capabilities
  Posted : 2017-07-03 13:45 Updated : 2017-07-03 13:45 ???? North Korea on Monday celebrated the anniversary of its strategic force in charge of missile development, saying that its missiles can hit any target in a speedy and accurate manner. But this year, Pyongyang refrained from delivering a bellicose message against the United States as it is apparently gauging Seoul and Washington's new North Korea policy direction in the wake of the allies' summit last week. North Korea's rubber-stamp parliament announced last year that it will designate July 3 as the Day of Strategic Force to mark its creation in 1999. "The Strategic Force, which is beloved by people, is the nation's pride and power. It has provided the country a reliable nuclear force," said the Rodong Sinmun, the main organ of the ruling Workers' Party of Korea. It said that missiles developed by the force can hit any target on Earth and cannot be tracked due to its speedy launches and flights. Their launches are always successful, it added. North Korea unveiled the existence of its strategic rocket forces for the first time at a military parade in 2012 to mark the centennial of state founder Kim Il-sung's birth. In 2013, the country set up the strategic forces by expanding the rocket forces. [Deterrence] [ICBM]
• Seoul strives to overcome Pyongyang in rocket tech
  Posted : 2017-07-02 17:08 Updated : 2017-07-03 13:45 ???? A 75-ton liquid fueled engine undergoes a combustion test at the Naro Space Center on Oenaro Island in Goheung, South Jeolla Province, in this file photo. / Courtesy of the Korea Aerospace Research Institute By Park Jae-hyuk GOHEUNG, South Jeolla Province ? The second Korea Space Launch Vehicle (KSLV-2) will be more powerful than any North Korean rocket, a project leader told reporters at the Naro Space Center on this southwestern island, Wednesday. "Of course we've lagged behind North Korea in space technology, as we have yet to develop our own rocket," said Ko Jeong-hwan, executive director of KSLV-2 research and development at the Korea Aerospace Research Institute. "If we accomplish our development, however, KSLV-2 will be superior to the existing Unha-3 rocket of North Korea in various capabilities such as output." [SLV] [NK SK Competition]

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JUNE 2017

• Construction to be suspended on fifth and sixth Shin-Kori nuclear reactors
  Posted on : Jun.28,2017 15:51 KST Modified on : Jun.28,2017 15:51 KST Citizen jury to be convened to decide on whether permanently abandon construction of reactors The South Korean government plans to temporarily halt construction on the fifth and sixth reactors at the Shin-Kori Nuclear Power Plant in Ulsan and hold a citizen jury survey of public opinion to make a decision on whether to abandon it altogether. Coming on the heels of the permanent shutdown of the first reactor at Kori on June 19, it is another example of the Moon Jae-in administration’s move away from nuclear power. The government’s decision on the plan for bringing the Shin-Kori reactor issue to public debate came during a June 27 Cabinet meeting presided over by Moon. “The new administration named a halt to construction of the Shin-Kori 5 and 6 reactors as an election pledge as a part of its post-nuclear power policies,” said Office of Government Policy Coordination director Hong Nam-ki in a press conference. [Nuclear energy]
• Pres. Moon observes test launch of Hyunmoo 2 ballistic missile, part of “kill chain”
  Posted on : Jun.24,2017 16:33 KST Modified on : Jun.24,2017 16:33 KST President Moon Jae-in observes the test launch of the Hyunmoo 2 ballistic missile at the test site of the Agency for Defense Development, located in Taean, South Chungcheong Province, June 23. (Blue House photo pool) Test likely intended to underscore South Korea’s capability to respond to a North Korean missile attack On June 23, President Moon Jae-in visited the test site of the Agency for Defense Development, located in Taean, South Chungcheong Province, to observe the test launch of the Hyunmoo 2 ballistic missile. The Hyunmoo 2 is a critical component of the “kill chain” (a system designed to detect a North Korean nuclear weapon or missile attack in advance and carry out a preliminary strike on the launch site), and with a range of 800km the missile could hit any point in North Korean territory. Moon’s observation of the test launch was likely intended to underscore South Korea’s capability to respond to a North Korean missile attack, mitigating security concerns prompted by the controversy about delaying the THAAD deployment while also sending a warming message to the North Korean leadership, which continues to develop nuclear weapons and missiles. [Missile test] [Hyunmoo]
• Moon observes test-firing of new ROK ballistic missile
  Posted : 2017-06-23 17:13 Updated : 2017-06-23 19:13 President Moon Jae-in speaks to government and military officials after observing the test-firing of a new home-grown ballistic missile at the Anheung test site of the Agency for Defense Development in Taean, South Chungcheong Province, Friday. Moon's spokesman said the President's visit to the site is to send a strong message to North Korea over its repeated provocations. / Courtesy of Cheong Wa Dae By Jun Ji-hye President Moon Jae-in observed the test-firing of the nation's new ballistic missile with a maximum range of 800 kilometers, Friday, sending a strong warning to North Korea over its provocations. The test of a Hyunmoo-type ballistic missile, which puts the whole of North Korea within striking distance, took place at the Anheung test site of the Agency for Defense Development (ADD) under the wing of the Ministry of National Defense in Taean, South Chungcheong Province. "The missile fell precisely onto a designated target after flying a prearranged distance," presidential spokesman Park Soo-hyun said at a media briefing. A Hyunmoo-type ballistic missile with a maximum range of 800 kilometers is launched from a mobile launch vehicle during a test-firing observed by President Moon Jae-in at the Anheung test site of the Agency for Defense Development in Taean, South Chungcheong Province, Friday. / Courtesy of Cheong Wa Dae As core assets forming the Kill Chain pre-emptive strike system, the new strategic weapons will be used to attack the North's nuclear and missile facilities in the event of war, Park noted. [Missile test] [Moon Jae-in] [Double standards] [Preemptive]
• N.Korean Drone Made from Parts from 7 Countries
  By Lee Yong-soo June 22, 2017 11:11 A drone North Korea sent to spy on the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense battery being stationed here was put together from components from at least seven different countries. The drone crashed on a mountain in Inje, Gangwon Province on June 8. The Defense Ministry told reporters Wednesday that a team of investigators were able to trace the drone's flight path and found it embarked in North Korea and intended to return there. The drone could have flown some 600 km if it had not crashed, which significantly improves on the 200-300 km range of a North Korean drone found here in 2014. It was fitted with a high-powered 50 cc engine from the Czech Republic and a fuel tank with a capacity of 7.47 liters. The camera, a Sony Alpha 7R, weighed just about 400 g, while the battery capacity doubled from 2600 mAh in the 2014 drone to 5300 mAh. A North Korean drone is displayed at the Ministry of National Defense in Seoul on Wednesday. Besides the Czech engine, the operating computer was made by MicroPilot of Canada; the GPS receiver by U-Blox from Switzerland; the GPS antenna made by Trimble of the U.S., the RC receiver and camera in Japan; and the battery in China. The servomotor that moves the wings was made by HITEC RCD in South Korea. Analysis of flight records in the computer and the pre-programmed flight schedule shows that the drone took off from Kumgang, Kangwon Province at 10 a.m. on May 2, crossed the military demarcation line, circled over the THAAD battery, and crashed on the mountain in Inje at 3:33 p.m. on its way back to its home base. It crashed five hours and 33 minutes after it took off and took 555 photos stored on the camera memory stick. It flew at a speed of 90 km/h and at an altitude of 2.4 km over a total distance of about 490 km. "The drone's speed dropped and it consumed too much fuel, probably due to an engine malfunction," an investigator the Agency for Defense Development said. It probably crashed because it ran out of fuel. The drone took off on May 2, six days after the U.S. Forces Korea set up the radar system and two of the THAAD launchers. "It's highly likely that this was a meticulously planned operation by the North's General Bureau of Reconnaissance rather than routine reconnaissance activity by the Army," military official said. [Drone] [THAAD] [Globalisation] [Asymmetry]
• North Korea’s Sohae Satellite Launching Station: Construction Activity Continues at Launch Pad
  By: 38 North June 16, 2017 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr. Commercial satellite imagery of the Sohae Satellite Launching Station from June 10 indicates continued construction throughout the facility, most notably at the southern end of the launch pad. The exact purpose of this activity is unclear. Ongoing construction indicates North Korea’s long-term commitment to further developing this facility and its space launch program. [Satellite]
• Seoul Succeeds with New Interceptor Missile
  By Lee Yong-soo June 19, 2017 12:38 South Korea on Sunday passed a new home-grown interceptor missile for deployment against North Korean missile attacks. The M-SAM, a medium range surface-to-air missile dubbed Cheolmae-2, intercepted all five dummy ballistic missiles in a recent test. This means the development is officially complete, the Defense Acquisition Program Administration said. "It's possible to start mass-production of the missile later this year," a spokesman said. The M-SAM is a hit-to-kill missile interceptor that collides with incoming ballistic missiles at an altitude below 20 km. Each costs about W1.5 billion (US$1=W1,135). It will form the low-altitude air defense alongside the U.S.-made PAC-3 missiles with an intercept altitude of about 20 km, which will be procured next year. Military authorities are also developing a long-range surface-to-air missile that can intercept missiles at an altitude of 40 to 60 km. [Missile defense] [Air defense] [Missile test] [Military balance]
• Nuclear Weapons Ban? What Needs to be Banned Is U.S. Arrogance
  by Diana Johnstone In a context of almost total indifference, marked by outright hostility, representatives of over a hundred of the world’s least powerful countries are currently opening another three-week session of United Nations talks aimed at achieving a legally binding ban on nuclear weapons. Very few people even know this is happening. Ban nuclear weapons? Ho hum… Let’s change the subject. Let’s talk about Russian hacking instead, or the rights of trans-sexuals to use the toilet of their choice, or even about something really important: climate change. But wait a minute. The damage to human society, and to “the planet”, from the projected rise of a few degrees of global temperature, while commonly described as apocalyptic, would be minor compared to the results of all-out nuclear war. [Nuclear weapons] [Disarmament]
• Reality of North Korean Missiles vs. the Mythology of Missile Defense
  by Melvin Goodman Last month, the mainstream media endorsed the Pentagon’s description of a collision between an American interceptor rocket and a mock intercontinental ballistic missile over the Pacific Ocean as the “first successful test of whether it could shoot down a North Korean warhead racing toward the United States.” Nonsense! The reality of anti-missile defense, whether called anti-ballistic missiles, “Star Wars,” or today’s National Missile Defense is—in Yogi Berra’s ironic words—a continuing story of “deja vu all over again.” For the past sixty years, an alliance of weapons laboratories and defense contractors have exaggerated the military threat that these systems are supposed to meet as well as the potential for the success of these systems. [Missile defense] [Efficacy] [US NK policy] [Chinese peace proposal]
• Historic negotiations to ban nuclear weapons resume at United Nations today
  Will negotiators finish by July 7? Will the treaty leave loopholes? Contact: Greg Mello, 505-265-1200 (office), 505-577-8563 (cell) Albuquerque, NM – Today most of the world’s countries have gathered again to complete negotiations of a treaty that will ban the possession and use of nuclear weapons, the “Convention to Prohibit Nuclear Weapons,” a draft of which was released on May 22 by Ambassador Elayne Whyte Gómez, President of the negotiating conference. Negotiations began in late March pursuant to a General Assembly mandate passed last December. Elements of the treaty were extensively discussed in the spring and summer of 2016 by a special Open-Ended Working Group. Negotiations will conclude on July 7. [Nuclear weapons] [Disarmament]
• North Korea fires anti-ship cruise missiles
  Posted : 2017-06-08 17:19 Updated : 2017-06-08 21:30 President convenes security council By Jun Ji-hye North Korea launched what were presumed to be anti-ship cruise missiles from its east coast Thursday morning, according to South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS). This is the North's fifth missile firing since President Moon Jae-in was sworn in, May 10. After receiving reports about the provocation from the JCS as well as national security adviser Chung Eui-yong, President Moon convened a meeting of the National Security Council (NSC) at 2 p.m. at Cheong Wa Dae to discuss countermeasures. During the meeting, Moon made it clear that his government will never compromise on issues related to national security, presidential spokesman Park Soo-hyun said. "North Korea will only face the deepening of its isolation and economic trouble should it stick to this provocative mode," Moon was quoted as saying. [Missile tests] [Anti-ship missiles] [Cruise missiles] [Provocation]
• South Korea says North Korea fires what appears to be land-to-ship missiles off east coast
  Reuters North Korean leader Kim Jong Un reacts during a ballistic rocket test-fire through a precision control guidance system. KCNA | Reuters North Korean leader Kim Jong Un reacts during a ballistic rocket test-fire through a precision control guidance system. North Korea fired what appeared to be multiple land-to-ship missiles off its east coast on Thursday, South Korea's military said. South Korea's Office of Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement the projectiles were launched Thursday morning from the North Korean coastal city of Wonsan.
• DPRK test-fires multiple ground-to-ship missiles
  Xinhua, June 8, 2017 The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) test-fired multiple projectiles believed to be ground-to-ship cruise missiles Thursday morning into its eastern waters, South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said. The short-range surface-to-ship cruise missiles were launched from the city of Wonsan on DPRK's east coast in the morning, the JCS said in a statement. The missiles flew about 200 km into the DPRK'S eastern waters. South Korea and the United States were jointly analyzing details on the test-launches. The South Korean military has strengthened surveillance and vigilance in preparation for additional DPRK provocation, while maintaining full defense preparedness, the JCS said. The DPRK projectiles were not ballistic missiles. Under UN Security Council resolutions, Pyongyang is banned from testing any ballistic missile technology. The test-firing by the DPRK came as the U.S. military dispatched nuclear-powered aircraft carriers to waters off the Korean Peninsula. The test-launches were immediately reported to South Korean President Moon Jae-in right after being detected, according to local media reports. Pyongyang has conducted missile test-launches five times since Moon took office on May 10. [Missile test] [Anti-ship missiles]
• N. Korea fires multiple cruise missiles; fly 200 kilometers
  Posted : 2017-06-08 08:08 Updated : 2017-06-08 16:44 North Korea launched a salvo of anti-ship cruise missiles from its east coast Thursday, South Korea's military said, adding they flew some 200 kilometers before dropping in the East Sea. "North Korea fired several unidentified projectiles, assumed to be surface-to-ship cruise missiles, this morning in the direction of the East Sea from the vicinity of Wonsan, Gangwon Province," the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said. "The flight distance is around 200 km." The JCS said the South's military has beefed up surveillance and vigilance against the possibility of additional provocations, maintaining full preparedness. [Missile test] [Anti-ship missile] [Cruise missile] [Inversion]
• N. Korea launches another salvo of missiles, defying international condemnation
  An undated photo released by the Korean Central News Agency shows the test-fire of a ballistic rocket equipped with a precision guidance system at an undisclosed location in North Korea. According to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, North Korea has fired several suspected land-to-sea ballistic missiles early Thursday from the Wonsan area of the Kangwon Province. (Kcna/European Pressphoto Agency) By Anna Fifield June 7 at 8:40 PM TOKYO – North Korea fired another salvo of missiles Thursday morning, keeping up the relentless pace of testing as it advances toward its goal of producing an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the mainland United States. The latest barrage comes after three launches in May, and means Kim Jong Un has now ordered almost as many missile launches this year alone as his father oversaw — 16 — during 17 years in power. It was not immediately clear how many missiles were fired Thursday or what type they were, but they appeared to be anti-ship missiles rather than the ballistic missiles North Korea had been testing recently. [Missile test] [Anti-ship missiles]
• Nuclear waste disposal and fuel leasing: A nonproliferation opportunity
  by Aiko Shimizu, Thom Dixon, and Miha Hribernik Aiko Shimizu (aiko.shimizu@gmail.com) manages policy and economic analyses on Japan and the Republic of Korea's energy and transport sectors at a New York-based company and was the 2013-2014 Resident SPF Fellow at Pacific Forum CSIS. Thom Dixon (thom.dixon@mq.edu.au) is a Young Leader with the Pacific Forum CSIS, a Councillor with the Australian Institute of International Affairs NSW and an emerging leader with the EU-Australia Leadership Forum. Miha Hribernik (miha.hribernik1@gmail.com) is a Senior Consultant at Verisk Maplecroft and a Non-Resident WSD-Handa Fellow at Pacific Forum CSIS. A long-term solution to the growing amounts of waste generated by the world’s nuclear power plants has proved elusive. As a result, nuclear waste is piling up in potentially dangerous, temporary waste sites. A solution may be on the horizon, however. South Australia’s Nuclear Fuel Cycle Royal Commission is exploring the feasibility of an international used fuel (high-level waste) disposal facility. While this is not the first such facility to have been proposed – others are being planned in Finland and Sweden – it would be the first in the Asia-Pacific and could play a vital role in regional nuclear safety, security, and nonproliferation efforts. [Non-proliferation]
• ‘Last Secret’ of 1967 War: Israel’s Doomsday Plan for Nuclear Display
  By WILLIAM J. BROAD and DAVID E. SANGER JUNE 3, 2017 On the eve of the Arab-Israeli war, 50 years ago this week, Israeli officials raced to assemble an atomic device and developed a plan to detonate it atop a mountain in the Sinai Peninsula as a warning to Egyptian and other Arab forces, according to an interview with a key organizer of the effort that will be published Monday. The secret contingency plan, called a “doomsday operation” by Itzhak Yaakov, the retired brigadier general who described it in the interview, would have been invoked if Israel feared it was going to lose the 1967 conflict. The demonstration blast, Israeli officials believed, would intimidate Egypt and surrounding Arab states — Syria, Iraq and Jordan — into backing off. Israel won the war so quickly that the atomic device was never moved to Sinai. But Mr. Yaakov’s account, which sheds new light on a clash that shaped the contours of the modern Middle East conflict, reveals Israel’s early consideration of how it might use its nuclear arsenal to preserve itself.
  Mr. Yaakov, who oversaw weapons development for the Israeli military, detailed the plan to Dr. Cohen in 1999 and 2000, years before he died in 2013 at age 87. “Look, it was so natural,” said Mr. Yaakov, according to a transcription of a taped interview. “You’ve got an enemy, and he says he’s going to throw you to the sea. You believe him.” “How can you stop him?” he asked. “You scare him. If you’ve got something you can scare him with, you scare him.” [Israel] [Nuclear weapons]
• Successful U.S. Missile Intercept Test Quells Fears
  By Yu Yong-weon June 01, 2017 10:08 The U.S. on Tuesday for the first time succeeded in a simulated shoot-down of a full-size intercontinental ballistic missile. The Ground-Based Interceptor missile that hit the target Tuesday constitutes the second of three stages of the U.S. missile defense system for the U.S. mainland. The first stage is to intercept an incoming ICBM with an SM-3 missile fired from an Aegis ship in the Pacific. If that fails, a GBI launched from Alaska or California will intercept the missile above the atmosphere. If that fails as well, a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense battery or PAC-3 missile on the U.S. mainland is fired. Of the three stages, the second used to be considered the most difficult. But with the successful test, concerns have been laid to rest. The U.S. had succeeded only in four of nine intercept tests since 2004, and the targets were predecessor types of an ICBM. The Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) element of the U.S. ballistic missile defense system launches during a flight test from Vandenberg Air Force Base, California on Tuesday. /Yonhap The latest test began with the firing of a "custom-made" ICBM from the Marshall Islands in the Pacific toward the U.S. mainland thousands of kilometers away. The missile was programmed to fly faster than those used in previous intercept tests. The target was intercepted and destroyed by a GBI fired from an underground silo at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. It can reach an altitude of 2,000 km and has a range of 5,300 km. The test cost US$244 million, including the GBI ($75 million) and the target ICBM. Some 32 GBIs are deployed at Fort Greely, Alaska and four at Vandenberg. Eight more will be deployed by year's end. The success will help settle some doubts expressed by critics of the THAAD's intercept capabilities, but there still are some tasks to be completed before the U.S.' missile defense is perfect. [Missile Defense] [Test] [THAAD]
• N.Korea Threatens to Test-Fire Intercontinental Missile
  By Kim Myong-song June 01, 2017 10:56 North Korea is ready to test-fire an intercontinental ballistic missile "anytime, anywhere," the state-run Rodong Sinmun daily said Wednesday. The threat came after news reports the previous day of the U.S.' success in intercepting and destroying an ICBM in a test of its ability to counter a North Korean missile launch. The daily said in a commentary, "The U.S. should know clearly that the declaration of our ability to devastate the strongholds of evil with nuclear weapons is never an empty talk." "Nobody can block our path to increasing our state nuclear capabilities," it added in its peculiar jargon. "Multiple of our powerful strategic ballistic rockets will soar into the sky continuously and concurrently in the future, too, as long as the U.S. continues its hostile policy toward" Pyongyang. [ICBM]
• Successful ICBM interceptor test shows US can outpace missile threats through 2020: official
  Posted : 2017-06-01 11:17 Updated : 2017-06-01 11:17 The successful shootdown of an intercontinental ballistic missile target in this week's interceptor test shows the United States can "outpace" foreign missile threats through 2020, the U.S. missile defense agency chief was quoted as saying Wednesday. The Pentagon carried out the interceptor test over the Pacific Ocean on Tuesday, in which an ICBM-class target was fired from a site in the Marshall Islands and a ground-based interceptor was launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base, California, to intercept and destroy the target. It was the first live-fire test against an ICBM-class target for the U.S. ballistic missile defense system. The test came after a series of successful missile tests by North Korea that demonstrated steady progress in its pursuit of various types of missiles, including a nuclear-tipped ICBM capable of reaching the U.S. [Missile defense] [GMD] [Test] [Propaganda]
• US interceptor missile hits target in South Pacific
  Xinhua, May 31, 2017 U.S. military officials said an interceptor missile launched Tuesday from a California military base shot down a simulated incoming warhead as part of a U.S. defense system test. The ground-based interceptor was launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base in Southern California, 250 km northwest to Los Angeles, at a mock-up of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) fired from the Reagan Test Site on Kwajalein Atoll in the Marshall Islands. Officials said the interceptor missile travelled at 16,000 miles (27,040 km) per hour and hit its target over the Pacific Ocean. The test came a day after the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) tested its ninth ballistic missile this year that travelled 280 miles (473 km) before splashing down in the Sea of Japan. Pentagon spokesman Navy Captain Jeff Davis said the test had been planned for some time and was not timed specifically as a response to the DPRK. "In a broad sense, North Korea is one of reasons why we have this capability," Davis said. "North Korea has expanded the size and the sophistication of its ballistic missile forces," he said in a statement. The U.S. interceptor has an uneven track record, having succeeded nine times out of 17 attempts against missiles in test since 1999, although the most recent test in June 2014 was a success. "They continue to conduct test launches, as we saw this weekend, while also using dangerous rhetoric that suggests they would strike the United States homeland," Davis said. The United States has 26 interceptors based at Fort Greely in Alaska and four at Vandenberg Air Force Base. Last week, the Pentagon presented its 2018 budget to Congress, proposing spending 7.9 billion U.S. dollars on missile defense, including 1.5 billion dollars for the ground-based mid-course defense program. [Missile defense] [Threat] [Pretext]
• N.Korea's Missile Development Undeterred by Carrot or Stick
  By Yu Yong-weon, Lee Yong-soo May 31, 2017 13:36 North Korea has conducted missile tests every week since President Moon Jae-in came to power here on May 10. On May 14, the North launched a Hwasong-12, which it claims is capable of reaching the U.S. state of Alaska. On May 21, it launched a Pukguksong-2, which can hit any target in Japan, and on Monday it fired a new missile capable of both surface-to-surface and surface-to-ship attacks. It also tested a surface-to-air missile last Saturday. The message seems to be that the North is determined to carry on developing missiles, with the aim of eventually mounting nuclear warheads on them, and is undeterred by international sanctions, offers of rapprochement, or military threats. [Missile test]
• North Korea launches fourth missile since Pres. Moon took office
  Posted on : May.30,2017 16:42 KST Modified on : May.30,2017 16:42 KST A North Korean test launch of the Pukguksong-2, a solid-fuel ballistic missile, Feb. 12 String of launches leading Japan to seek rearmament, could complicate Moon’s effort to improve inter-Korean relations On May 29, North Korea launched another ballistic missile. This was the ninth such launch this year and the fourth since Moon Jae-in was inaugurated as South Korean president. The launch is thought to be North Korea’s way of saying it will pursue its own course and keep developing ballistic missiles. Such behavior is expected to complicate attempts by the Moon administration to improve inter-Korean relations and to fuel efforts by Japan to expand its military. [Missile test] [Agency]

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MAY 2017

• DPRK confirms test firing another ballistic missile
  Xinhua, May 30, 2017 The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) Tuesday confirmed it successfully test fired another ballistic missile on Monday, the third in one month, according to official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). The report said the missile was a medium-range rocket launched from a mobile pad vehicle "through a precision control guidance system." DPRK supreme leader Kim Jong Un guided the test fire, said the report. The test-fire was aimed at "verifying the technological indices of the new-type precision guided ballistic rocket capable of making ultra-precision strike on the enemies' objects at any area," according to the report. A new caterpillar pad vehicle carrying the missile was also tested this time in the launch after it joined a military parade last month for the first time. "The ballistic rocket flew toward the east sky where the day broke and correctly hit a planned target point with deviation of seven meters after flying over the middle shooting range," said the KCNA. [Missile test]
• N.Korea Tests New Interceptor Missile
  By Yu Yong-weon May 29, 2017 13:34 North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on Saturday watched the test of a new surface-to-air interceptor guided weapon system, the official [North] Korean Central News Agency reported Sunday. This was presumed to be a new KN-06 surface-to-air missile the North tested for the first time in April last year. They are launched in threes from a mobile launcher and are presumed to have a range of around 150 km. Kim was quoted as telling senior officials the system has improved significantly in its capability to detect targets since the last test. "Its target accuracy has also increased and flaws have been overcome completely. The test is successful," he added. The North has focused on improving the KN-06 because of the poor capabilities of its surface-to-air missiles in intercepting South Korean and U.S. Air Force jets that could strike mobile launcher vehicles and command posts. But it is not capable of intercepting ballistic missiles. Most of the North's current medium- and long-range surface-to-air missile batteries consist of SA-2s, 3s, and 5s, which the Soviet Union developed in the 1960s and 70s. [Missile test] [Missile defense] [SAM] [Air defence]
• North Korea fires Scud-class ballistic missile, Japan protests
  By Jack Kim and Ju-min Park | SEOUL North Korea fired what appeared to be a short-range ballistic missile on Monday that landed in the sea off its east coast, South Korea's military said, the latest in a series of missile tests defying world pressure and threats of more sanctions. The launch was immediately reported to South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who called a meeting of the National Security Council at 7:30 a.m. (2230 GMT Sunday), South Korea's Office of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement. The missile was believed to be a Scud-class ballistic missile and flew about 450 km (280 miles), the Joint Chiefs said in a statement. North Korea has a large stockpile of Scud missiles, originally developed by the Soviet Union. [Missile test]
• North Korea test-fires another ballistic missile, US and South Korea say
  By David Hawley, KJ Kwon, Brad Lendon and Ralph Ellis, CNN Updated 0021 GMT (0821 HKT) May 29, 2017 North Korea fires another ballistic missile Story highlights Missile was fired at 5:39 a.m. from an area near Wonsan, Kangwon province, South Korea says US officials are aware of the launch and "the President has been briefed" (CNN)North Korea fired a short-range ballistic missile Monday morning that landed in the ocean, the US military said. South Korea and Japan immediately protested the missile launch, the most recent test-firing by North Korea as it seeks to develop nuclear weapons that can reach US military bases. The missile was fired at 5:39 a.m. local time (4:39 p.m. Sunday ET) from an area near Wonsan, Kangwon province, toward the eastern part of the Korean Peninsula, according to a statement from South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff. The missile was "assumed" to be one of the Scud series, the statement said. [Missile test]
• DPRK apparently test-launches ballistic missile
  Xinhua, May 29, 2017 The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) test-launched a ballistic missile early Monday from the country's east coast, South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said. The ballistic missile, which was believed to be of Scud type, was fired at about 5:39 a.m. local time (2039 GMT on Sunday) from the DPRK's Wonsan vicinity, the JCS said in a statement. The missile flew some 450 km into eastern waters. The Scud missile is a short-range ballistic missile with a range of 300-500 km, which is known to target the South Korean territory. The JCS said South Korea and the United States were analyzing details on the missile launch. [Missile test]
• N. Korea fires another ballistic missile
  Posted : 2017-05-29 08:12 Updated : 2017-05-29 17:16 North Korea fired a ballistic missile from its eastern coast early Monday morning, dealing another blow to efforts by South Korea's new government to improve inter-Korean ties. The missile, presumed to be a Scud type, was launched eastward from the vicinity of Wonsan, Gangwon Province, at around 5:39 a.m., according to the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS). "The flight distance is around 450 kilometers," it said. The North's latest action was immediately reported to President Moon Jae-in, who ordered related government officials to convene a National Security Council meeting, said the JCS. The session started at 7:30 a.m., presided over by Moon's national security adviser Chung Eui-yong. [Missile test]
• North Korea’s latest ballistic missile launch lands in Japan’s economic zone
  By Anna Fifield May 28 at 9:45 PM North Korea launched a new short-range ballistic missile, similar to a Scud, on Monday morning, and it flew about 280 miles to land inside Japan’s exclusive economic zone. This launch is North Korea’s third in three weeks and its 12th this year, underscoring Kim Jong Un’s determination to advance his regime’s technical capabilities and his continued defiance of the international community. [Missile test]
• MANIFESTATIONS OF POWER IN UNDERSTANDING THE RISKS OF NUCLEAR AND RADIOLOGICAL TERRORISM WITH REFLECTIONS FOR A POST-FUKUSHIMA JAPAN
  Charles Ferguson May 26, 2017 I. INTRODUCTION In this essay, Charles Ferguson states “that dry cask storage for spent fuel has been shown to provide a safe and secure means of storage for at least a few decades based on real world experience. How long these casks will last is not clear, but perhaps for several decades to maybe a century. This could buy time while a longer-term solution is worked out.” Charles D. Ferguson is President, Federation of American Scientists. This Special Report was prepared for the Project on Reducing Risk of Nuclear Terrorism and Spent Fuel Vulnerability In East Asia. It was presented at a Nautilus Institute Workshop at International House, Tokyo, September 14-15, 2015, funded by The Macarthur Foundation. [Nuclear waste] [Nuclear terrorism]
• Missile launched by North Korea was difficult-to-detect Pukguksong-2
  Posted on : May.23,2017 17:15 KST Modified on : May.23,2017 17:15 KST The launch of a Pukguksong-2 medium-range ballistic missile from North Korea on May 21, from the May 22 edition of the Rodong Sinmun newspaper, which reported that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has approved the deployment of surface-to-surface missile, after successful test launches. (Yonhap News) New model is land-based version of the Pukguksong-1, and has now undergone final test launch before deployment North Korea has announced that the ballistic missile it launched on May 21 was the Pukguksong-2 and that it means to start deploying the missile. Since the Pukguksong-2 is a solid-fuel missile, it can be quickly prepared for launch. If the missile is actively deployed, it would likely be difficult to detect prior signs of an attack. “Another fruitful test launch of the surface-to-surface medium-range ballistic missile Pukguksong-2 has been carried out,” the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported on May 22. While the KCNA did not specify the date of the launch, this appears to have been the missile launched the day before. On that day, South Korea’s Joint Chief of Staff concluded that North Korea had launched a ballistic missile with a maximum altitude of 560km and a range of 500km and had speculated that this was a Pukguksong-2. [Missile test] [Pukguksong-2]
• Spring Has Sprung at Punggye-ri, but a Sixth Nuclear Test Likely Still on Stand-by
  By 38 North 22 May 2017 A 38 North exclusive by Frank Pabian, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., and Jack Liu. Commercial satellite imagery of the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site from May 18, 2017, shows a relatively low level of activity around the North Portal, where test preparations have been observed this year. However, at the Main Administrative Area, new equipment/material deliveries are observed and possible building construction has started where a small support building was razed late last year. While the site appears to continue in stand-by mode, a sixth nuclear test could still be conducted at any time with minimal advance warning. [Punggye-ri] [Nuclear test]
• N.Korea's New Missile 'Ready for Combat'
  By Yu Yong-weon May 23, 2017 11:13 North Korea's missile test on Sunday was of a solid-fuel missile that is now been "approved for deployment in combat" by leader Kim Jong-un, the state-run KCNA news agency said Monday. Kim also ordered mass production of the missile. The Joint Chiefs of Staff here said the Pukguksong-2 missile probably has an intermediate range of 2,000 km, not 2,500-3,000 as previously presumed. The latest launch focused on testing of the solid-fuel engine as well as checking functions including a "cold launch" from a mobile launcher with caterpillar treads, the guidance and control system, and the separation of boosters, KCNA said. In a cold launch a missile is pushed up and out by steam pressure from the launch tube. The technology was developed based on the Pukguksong-1 submarine-based ballistic missile. The North also published an image shot from space with a camera installed on the warhead of the Pukguksong-2. "It seems they improved the accuracy of the warhead during descent," a military source here speculated. [Pukguksong-2] [Missile test]
• After North Korea fires another missile, Kim Jong Un approves it for ‘action’
  By Anna Fifield May 21 TOKYO — North Korea on Sunday conducted another ballistic missile launch — the 11th such test this year — in its latest show of defiance to the international community and its demands to stop its provocative threats. Despite repeated condemnations and warnings of additional sanctions, Kim Jong Un’s regime has been pressing ahead at a relentless pace to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile, which would be capable of reaching the mainland United States. Kim supervised the launch and declared it “perfect,” the state-run Korean Central News Agency reported Monday morning. Although analysts say the regime has several key technologies to master before it can deliver a nuclear-tipped missile to a target, they also point out that it inches close to its goal with every test. [Pukguksong-2] [Missile test]
• N.Korea Fires Mid-Range Missile
  By Yu Yong-weon May 22, 2017 09:58 North Korea test-fired another ballistic missile on Sunday evening, which flew about 500 km, the Joint Chiefs of Staff here said. The missile is presumed to be a Pukguksong-2 ballistic missile with an intermediate range of 2,500 to 3,000 km. It is a surface-to-surface version of the Pukguksong submarine-based ballistic missile and uses solid fuel. It reached an altitude of 560 km and flew some 500 km. The launch came just a week after the test-launch of a Hwasong-12 mid-range ballistic missile. [Missile test] [Pukguksong-2]
• North Korea fires another ballistic missile despite sanctions threats
  Posted : 2017-05-21 17:34 Updated : 2017-05-22 17:17 By Jun Ji-hye North Korea fired a ballistic missile that flew about 500 kilometers, Sunday, according to the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS). This marked the North's second missile provocation since President Moon Jae-in was sworn in May 10. The first was launched May 14. President Moon immediately ordered the new chief of the National Security Office, Chung Eui-yong, to preside over a meeting of the Standing Committee of the National Security Council (NSC) at Cheong Wa Dae. Chung was appointed to the post earlier in the day. "North Korea fired an unidentified ballistic missile in the eastern direction at around 4:59 p.m. from the vicinity of Pukchang in South Pyongan Province," the JCS said in a release. "Flight distance is about 500 kilometers." The JCS noted the characteristics of the missile were presumed to be similar to the "Pukguksong-2" intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) fired in February. At the time, the North's state media said its IRBM used a high-thrust solid fuel-powered engine, marking the first time it tested a solid-fueled, surface-to-surface missile that has more than a medium range. [Missile test] [Pukguksong-2]
• POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ACCIDENT AT OR ATTACK ON THE DPRK’S YONGBYON NUCLEAR REACTORS
  David von Hippel and Peter Hayes May 22, 2017 I. INTRODUCTION This essay by David von Hippel and Peter Hayes argues that neither attack nor accident at the DPRK’s two reactors at Yongbyon would result in significant transborder radiological damage. They conclude that “the United States and its allies control most of the variables that would result in substantial radiological release from the DPRK’s small reactors, but any leverage arising from that dominance is offset by the reciprocal threat posed by DPRK retaliation to ROK LWRs, neutralizing the US-ROK threat from the DPRK’s perspective.” [Yongbyon] [Strike] [Retaliation]
• Hwasong-12 a stepping stone in North Korea’s ICBM development
  Posted on : May.16,2017 17:34 KST Modified on : May.16,2017 17:34 KST A photo from the May 15 edition of the Rodong Sinmun newspaper, of a missile test launch the previous day. The missile launched was a Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), which North Korea says is capable of carrying a one-kiloton nuclear warhead. (Yonhap News) Latest launch shows advancement in reaching altitude over 2,000km, and a range that puts Guam in striking distance North Korea announced on May 15 that the missile it had launched the previous day was a newly developed Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missile. Analysts saw the Hwasong-12, which became the first North Korean missile to reach an altitude above 2,000 km, as a stepping stone in North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) development. The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), Rodong Sinmun, and other North Korean state media outlets reported on May 15 that scientists and engineers had successfully conducted a test launch the day before on the Hwasong-12, a “newly developed surface-to-surface intermediate-range strategic ballistic rocket.” The reports also showed images of the launch and photographs of leader Kim Jong-un conducting field guidance. According to North Korean reports, the missile was launched at 4:58 am (5:28 am Seoul time) and reached an altitude of 2,111.5 km before falling into the East Sea 787 km away. [Hwasong-12] [ICBM] [Nuclear capability]
• Kim Jong-un Claims New Missile Can Reach Mainland U.S.
  By Kim Myong-song May 16, 2017 09:43 North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on Sunday observed the test launch of a new ballistic missile that can carry a large nuclear warhead and has the U.S. mainland within striking range, state media claimed Monday. The official [North] Korean Central News Agency said Kim "warned the U.S. not to disregard or misjudge the reality that its mainland and Pacific region operations are in [North Korea's] sighting range for a strike and that it has all powerful means for a retaliatory strike." The Rodong Sinmun daily called the new missile "Hwasong-12" and claimed it is "capable of carrying a large nuclear warhead" to the U.S. mainland. A missile is being launched from an undisclosed location in North Korea on Sunday. /Yonhap Some experts said the missile, which was launched at a high angle, would have the same reach as an intercontinental ballistic missile if it were fired at a 30 to 45-degree angle. One source said if two or three booster engines are combined, the maximum range would increase to more than 10,000 km. "If the U.S. awkwardly attempts to provoke [North Korea], it will not escape from the biggest disaster in the history," Kim was quoted as saying. The Rodong Sinmun said the issue of nuclear weapons is a matter of concern between the North and the U.S. and warned against South Korean interference, accusing the South of being a "puppet" of Washington. That is a slap in the face for South Korea's new president, Moon Jae-in, who has promised greater engagement with the North, and suggests that the missile launch was an attempt to improve Pyongyang's negotiating position with a more hardline U.S. under President Donald Trump. The missile seems to have been equipped with a new, high-powered engine that was tested at a launch site in Tongchang-ri in remote North Pyongan Province in mid-March. Kim was photographed giving a cheerful piggyback to the scientist who is believed to have designed the booster. Clustering two to four of the boosters could result in enough power to deliver a 500 kg to one-ton nuclear warhead not only to targets in the west coast of the U.S., but even the east coast, some pundits speculate. [Missile test] [IRBM] [ICBM] [Hwasong-12] [Deterrence] [Conditionality]
• N.Korean Missile Development Accelerating at Breakneck Speed
  By Lee Yong-soo May 16, 2017 11:28 The South Korean military is stunned not only by North Korea's missile technology but also by the short time it took to test and actually deploy a new high-powered engine. A Defense Ministry official said Monday, "The pressure South Korea and the U.S. are feeling is incomparable to the past." The speed of North Korea's missile development far surpassed their expectations. On March 18, the North successfully tested a new high-thrust engine at a launch site in Tongchang-ri, North Pyongan Province. Leader Kim Jong-un hailed the achievement as a "new birth" for the country's rocket industry. And on Monday the North Korean state media featured Kim giving a scientist on a piggyback, so elated was he when the missile equipped with the new engine actually worked. It is unprecedented for the leader, who is seen as a demigod, to carry someone on his back. A military source here said, "Kim was so elated because the North has succeeded in developing a thrust engine to replace the booster of the faulty Musudan missile, which failed in seven out of eight launches last year." North Korean leader Kim Jong-un smiles after watching the successful test launch of a new ballistic missile in this photo from the official Rodong Sinmun daily on Monday. /Yonhap The missile fired on Sunday was unveiled at a military parade in Pyongyang on April 15 marking the 105th birthday of nation founder Kim Il-sung. The shape of the 12-wheeled launch vehicle and slightly shorter new missile compared to the KN-08 intercontinental ballistic missile are telltale signs. The North went from testing the thrust engine to mounting it onto a missile in just four weeks. A military source said, "The speed is simply stunning even if it is a prototype." North Korea's economy is just 1/44 the size of South Korea's and its defense budget just one-fifth. But the speedy missile development is possible because Kim is funneling all the impoverished nation's resources into developing weapons of mass destruction. Since Kim came to power in 2012, the North has fired 50 missiles, compared to 29 during the 67-year reign of Kim Il-sung and his son Kim Jong-il. [Missile test] [Hwasong-12] [Military balance]
• North Korea’s Kim celebrates test of ‘perfect weapon system’
  By Anna Fifield May 14 at 10:36 PM TOKYO — North Korean leader Kim Jong Un celebrated a test of the “perfect weapon system” ­after his engineers launched what they said was a new kind of intermediate-range ballistic missile system capable of carrying “a large-size heavy nuclear warhead.” The missile, launched Sunday morning, appeared to show substantial progress toward developing an intercontinental ballistic missile that can reach the mainland United States, U.S. rocket scientists said. “North Korea’s latest successful missile test represents a level of performance never before seen from a North Korean missile,” said John Schilling, an aerospace engineer who specializes in rockets. This means North Korea might be only one year, rather than the expected five, from having an ICBM, he said. The latest launch was widely condemned, with the White House calling North Korea a “flagrant menace” and urging allies to impose stronger sanctions. South Korea and Japan also condemned the launch. Releasing the first photos of the launch — something Pyongyang does with missiles it deems successful — North Korea’s state media said that it was a “new ground-to-ground medium long-range strategic ballistic rocket” that it called Hwasong-12. It used a reentry vehicle capable of delivering a warhead to a target, the Korean Central News Agency reported. “If the U.S. dares opt for a military provocation against the DPRK, we are ready to counter it,” the agency said, using the abbreviation for North Korea’s official name. [Missile test] [Deterrence] [Retaliation] [Hwasong-12]
• N.Korea Tests 'New' Missile
  By Lim Min-hyuk, Yu Yong-weon May 15, 2017 09:33 North Korea launched a ballistic missile on Sunday that flew some 700 km before splashing into the East Sea. The missile was fired from Kusong, North Pyongan Province around 5:27 a.m. Sunday, according to the Joint Chiefs of Staff here. The provocation comes just a few days after South Korea's new president, Moon Jae-in, said he would be willing to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang and after U.S. naval forces massed in waters off the peninsula. [Missile test] [Hwasong-12]
• N. Korea claims successful launch of intermediate ballistic missile
  Posted : 2017-05-15 07:10 Updated : 2017-05-15 14:53 North Korea claimed Monday that it succeeded in launching a ground-to-ground intermediate ballistic missile the previous day. Pyongyang's state broadcaster said the isolated country test-fired the rocket, called Hwasong-12, Sunday morning, from a site northwest of Pyongyang. The missile reached an altitude of 2,111.5 kilometers in an indication that it may be a new type of a ballistic missile under development. It flew 787 kilometers, the broadcaster said. South Korea's military said the missile flew about 700 kilometers and landed in the East Sea. It marked the North's first provocation since South Korea's new president Moon Jae-in took office on Wednesday. (Yonhap) [Missile test] [IRBM] [Hwasong-12]
• North Korea launches a ballistic missile that flies about 435 miles
  By Anna Fifield May 13 at 11:05 PM TOKYO — North Korea fired a ballistic missile early Sunday, sending it from a launch site near its border with China some 450 miles into the sea between the Korean Peninsula and Japan. It was launched from the same site where North Korea fired two mystery missiles that some analysts thought could have been intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the mainland United States. But the U.S. military said that the flight pattern was “not consistent” with an ICBM and did not threaten the United States. Regardless, the apparent success of the launch and the steady pace of firings will only heighten tensions in the region. [Missile test]
• U.S. to Launch Another Provocative Minuteman III ICBM Test, Amidst Accusations Directed against North Korea
  The purpose of the ICBM test launch program is to validate and verify the effectiveness, readiness, and accuracy of the weapon system.” By Nuclear Age Peace Foundation Global Research, May 03, 2017 Amidst mounting tensions between the United States and North Korea, and just one week after a test launch of a U.S. unarmed intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the U.S. has scheduled another Minuteman III ICBM missile test for Wednesday, May 3, between 12:01 a.m. and 6:01 a.m. PDT from Vandenberg Air Force Base. Like last week’s test, according to Air Force Global Strike Command, “The purpose of the ICBM test launch program is to validate and verify the effectiveness, readiness, and accuracy of the [nuclear] weapon system.” [Missile test] [Double standards]
• DPRK condemns US test launch of ICBM
  Xinhua, May 6, 2017 The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) Friday condemned the U.S. test launch of an inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) earlier this week. The test-fire of an ICBM on May 3 followed an earlier one on April 26 "at a time when the situation on the Korean Peninsula has reached an extremely dangerous phase due to the largest-ever joint military drills" between the South Korea and the United States, the official Korean Central News Agency quoted a DPRK Foreign Ministry spokesman as saying. "The U.S. claims the two ICBM test-fires conducted just in a little over one week were planned one year ago and they have nothing to do with the DPRK's nuclear and long-range ballistic missile launch, but many world media are concerned that the consecutive ICBM tests by the U.S. can push the acute situation on the Korean Peninsula to a graver phase," said the spokesman. "The U.S. maintains it may carry out missile launches but the DPRK can not and that its launches are a 'contribution' to peace and security while the DPRK's are a 'provocation' straining tension. This sophism is the height of double-dealing standards," he said. For the second time in a week, the U.S. Air Force test launched another unarmed ICBM capable of carrying a nuclear warhead from an air base in California Wednesday morning. The DPRK describes the test launch as a simulation strike against it. [Missile test] [ICBM] [Double standards]
• Fears of crisis in April pass, but Korean peninsula tensions not gone yet
  Posted on : May.1,2017 17:56 KST Modified on : May.1,2017 17:56 KST North Korea launched a missile on Apr. 29, and US aircraft carriers still in waters near South Korea The high tensions throughout April on the Korean Peninsula may have passed for now, but the political volatility surrounding the Korean Peninsula appears unlikely to die down quickly. At around 5:30 am on Apr. 29, North Korea launched a ballistic missile northeast from the Pukchang area in South Pyongan Province. The missile, which had a maximum altitude of 71 km, appeared to fly for two to three minutes before exploding in midair. The US media concluded that the missile launched by North Korea was a KN-17 anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM), while the South Korean military only said the matter was “under analysis.” Kyungnam University Institute for Far Eastern Studies professor Kim Dong-yeop said on Apr. 30 that the “flight time, maximum altitude, and launch direction suggest this could have been an intentional detonation.” “[The midair detonation] could also be seen as [North Korea] adjusting things in its solid fuel engine development so as to avoid provoking the US,” Kim said. [Missile test] [Deception] [Failure]
• South Korea to launch multifunctional satellite in 2021
  Posted : 2017-05-01 14:47 Updated : 2017-05-01 15:16 By Park Si-soo South Korea plans to launch a self-developed multifunctional satellite in 2021. An estimated 310 billion won ($217.8 million) will be spent on the project. The Korea Aerospace Research Institute (KARI) will develop the rocket and Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) will develop the satellite, according to the Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning on Monday. The institutes signed a contract on April 27. The satellite will have a super performance optical camera that can see up to 0.3 meters of an object on the ground, an infrared sensor and latest motion balance system. The technology will make it possible for the satellite to carry out a task under any circumstances. "Our satellite technology has advanced to the level where we can stand shoulder to shoulder with major satellite-developing countries," said KAI CEO Ha Sung-yong. "We are developing a next-generation mid- and large-size satellite, which will help bolster South Korea's position in the aerospace industry." [Satellite] [SLV]

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APRIL 2017

• America’s New Nuclear Missile Endangers the World
  by Conn Hallinan At a time of growing tensions between nuclear powers—Russia and NATO in Europe, and the U.S., North Korea and China in Asia—Washington has quietly upgraded its nuclear weapons arsenal to create, according to three leading American scientists, “exactly what one would expect to see, if a nuclear-armed state were planning to have the capacity to fight and win a nuclear war by disarming enemies with a surprise first strike.” Writing in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project of the American Federation of Scientists, Matthew McKinzie of the National Resources Defense Council, and physicist and ballistic missile expert Theodore Postol, conclude that “Under the veil of an otherwise-legitimate warhead life-extension program,” the U.S. military has vastly expanded the “killing power” of its warheads such that it can “now destroy all of Russia’s ICBM silos.” The upgrade—part of the Obama administration’s $1 trillion modernization of America’s nuclear forces—allows Washington to destroy Russia’s land-based nuclear weapons, while still retaining 80 percent of the U.S.’s warheads in reserve. If Russia chose to retaliate, it would be reduced to ash. [First strike] [Nuclear capability]
• N. Korea says it will 'never stop nuclear tests'
  Posted : 2017-04-27 14:27 Updated : 2017-04-27 15:00 By Lee Han-soo A North Korean government official says his country is determined to continue its nuclear and missile program despite increasing pressure to stop it from the United States and China. "The nuclear test is an important part of our continued efforts to strengthen our nuclear forces," Son Chol-won, the director of North Korea's Institute of Human Rights at the Academy of Social Sciences, told CNN on Tuesday. "As long as America continues its hostile acts of aggression, we will never stop nuclear and missile tests." [Test] [Conditionality] [Hostility]
• The Games People Play: Has the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site Transitioned to Stand-by Status?
  By 38 North 19 April 2017 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., Jack Liu and Frank Pabian. After almost eight weeks of elevated activity at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site, commercial satellite imagery from April 16 indicates little activity around the North Portal, the tunnel that North Korea appears to have been preparing for another nuclear test. Imagery does show what may be three volleyball games underway at different locations throughout the facility, and possibly another volleyball net set up at the command center area.[1] At the North Portal, the pumping of water out of the tunnel to maintain an optimal environment for instrumentation and stemming seems to have ceased. This could mean that the tunnel has been completely sealed or that the North may have installed drainage pipes instead of using open ditches. The vehicles or trailers that were previously observed near the portal or on nearby roads are gone. Three mining carts are present on the spoil pile and there appears to have been some minor dumping of material there in the past few days.[Test] [Punggye-ri] [Volleyball]
• N. Korea unveils footage of simulated missile attack on US
  Posted : 2017-04-19 13:41 Updated : 2017-04-19 14:04 North Korea has unveiled footage of a simulated missile attack on the United States at the latest performance to mark the birthday of late state founder Kim Il-sung, Pyongyang's media reported Wednesday. Footage of what appeared to be a new intermediate-range ballistic missile being fired and the missile crossing the Pacific and hitting an unidentified city of the U.S. was shown on a giant screen at the performance hall, according to the state-run TV station. After the simulated attack, footage of burning the Stars and Stripes was shown, overlapped with an image of a cemetery, it reported. It was unveiled during the performance Sunday by the State Merited Chorus for participants of a military parade marking the 105th birthday of Kim Il-sung, the grandfather of current leader Kim Jong-un. [Retaliation]
• At massive military review, North Korea reveals new kinds of ICBM
  Posted on : Apr.17,2017 16:19 KST Modified on : Apr.17,2017 16:19 KST A missile that could be a new ICBM, seen at the Apr. 15 military parade in Pyongyang, North Korea, to mark the 105th anniversary of the birth of founding leader Kim Il-sung, in this photo from the Apr. 15 edition of the Rodong Sinmun newspaper. (Yonhap News) Also on auspicious weekend, North Korea appeared to fail in missile launch attempt; type of missile not yet known North Korea revealed what is believed to be a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at a military review on Apr. 15. It also launched a ballistic missile on Apr. 16, in an apparent signal that Pyongyang does not plan to back down in the face of military pressure from the US Donald Trump administration. North Korea staged a military review at Kim Il-sung Square in Pyongyang to commemorate the 105th anniversary of Kim Il-sung’s birth on Apr. 15. During the review, which was broadcast live by state-run Korean Central Television (KCTV) from 10:05 am South Korea time, a suspected new ICBM in a cylindrical launching tube was seen being transported on a large truck. The missile represented a new model that had not been shown in public before. [Missiles]
• North Korea's failed missile launch premeditated?
  Posted : 2017-04-17 16:59 Updated : 2017-04-17 17:49 North Korea fired an intercontinental missile from the Sinpo area, but the missile blew up immediately after its launch on Apr. 16. / Korea Times file By Eom Da-sol North Korea's failed missile launch on Apr. 16 was the rogue state's deliberate plan to ease tension with the U.S. and keep its dignity by continuing the annual tradition, a Chinese military expert suggests. North Korea deliberately arranged the failure avoided a U.S. retaliatory attack against its military provocation, while not giving up on its traditional ceremony of test-firing ballistic weapon systems, according to Luo Fu-qiang on Phoenix Television, a Chinese broadcaster, on Apr. 17. North Korea fired an intercontinental missile from Sinpo area, but the missile exploded immediately upon launch early on Sunday. "As the U.S. rearranged two of its aircraft carriers closer to the Korean peninsula and conducted air attacks in Syria, North Korea must have been seriously threatened," Luo said. "North Korean leader Kim Jong-un chose the missile launch out of a full range of options, enabling the annual tradition to continue but avoiding possible justification for the U.S. to attack." Luo also said the missile launch reinforced Kim's status as a firm leader of his people. "Kim might have wanted to argue domestically and internationally that he is not afraid of the retaliatory measures, but it turns out there was an unexpected glitch in the missile launch," Luo said. "Kim is young, but we should not underestimate his intentions." [Missile] [Test] [Failure]
• US Conducts Successful Field Test Of New Nuclear Bomb
  by Tyler Durden Apr 14, 2017 10:40 PM 0 With the world still abuzz over the first ever deployment of the GBU-43/B "Mother Of All Bombs" in Afghanistan, where it reportedly killed some 36 ISIS fighters, in a less noticed statement the US National Nuclear Security Administration quietly announced overnight the first successful field test of the modernized, "steerable" B61-12 gravity thermonuclear bomb in Nevada. In a well-timed statement, just as tensions over North Korea's nuclear program and potential US airstrikes run wild, the NNSA said that in conjunction with the US Air Force, it had completed the first qualification flight test of B61-12 gravity nuclear bomb on March 14 at the Tonopah Test Range in Nevada. #NNSA & @usairforce complete first B61-12 #LEP qualification flight test. @NellisAFB @NNSANevada https://t.co/cmhlhJsPnC pic.twitter.com/JbTpHn2cCB — Frank Klotz (@FrankKlotzNNSA) April 14, 2017 In the press release, the NNSA said that the "non-nuclear assembly test" was dropped from an F-16 based at Nellis Air Force Base and was intended to evaluate "both the weapon’s non-nuclear functions as well as the aircraft’s capability to deliver the weapon." [Nuclear weapons] [Text] [B61-12]
• North Korea’s display of new missiles is worrying, analysts say
  North Korea holds massive military parade as tensions rise in region Play Video0:57 North Korea held a military parade April 15 to mark the 105th birthday of its founder Kim Il Sung. The event comes as tensions are rising in the region. The U.S. has been conducting large-scale military exercises with South Korean forces, drills that North Korea considers provocative. (Reuters) By Anna Fifield April 15 at 12:50 PM TOKYO — North Korea put on a huge military spectacle Saturday to celebrate its founder’s birthday, parading its series of new and technologically advanced missiles in front of Kim Jong Un, and in a defiant show of force in front of the world. North Korea did not, however, carry out another nuclear test or ballistic missile launch, against widespread speculation that it would seek to celebrate Kim Il Sung’s 105th birthday with a bang. April 15 is the most important day in the North Korean calendar, and Kim Jong Un has celebrated his grandfather’s birthday with great fanfare as a way to boost his own legitimacy as the successor to the communist dynasty. North Korea presented two of its newest model missiles at the parade in Kim Il Sung Square on Saturday, including the submarine-launched ballistic type it successfully fired last year and the land-based version it launched last month. [SLBM] [Nuclear capability]
• Looking for some good nonproliferation news? Check Myanmar
  by David Santoro David Santoro (david@pacforum.org) is director and senior fellow of nuclear policy programs at Pacific Forum CSIS. This piece first appeared in The Strategist. His new report, Myanmar: A Nonproliferation Success Story, was released by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) and can be found here. Nuclear nonproliferation news is usually bad news. But sometimes there’s good news, and even clear wins. If you’re looking for such a case in the recent past, you need to look no further than Myanmar, formerly known as ‘Burma’. As I explain in my just-published ASPI Special Report, ‘Myanmar: A Nonproliferation Success Story,’ Myanmar officials have made significant progress on the nonproliferation front since the middle of 2011, so much so that their country is now hailed as a nonproliferation role model in the making. Myanmar has come a long way. When in the late 1990s Myanmar officials began to express an interest in expanding their rudimentary civilian nuclear activities and sought to acquire a research reactor from Russia, the international community raised concerns because Myanmar had neither the need for nor the infrastructure and funding to operate such a reactor. In the end, Myanmar-Russia nuclear cooperation didn’t go anywhere. But subsequent allegations that Naypyidaw might have developed a relationship with North Korea fuelled strong fears that it could be interested in obtaining nuclear weapons. [Myanmar] [Non-proliferation]
• Trump presented with plan to place nukes in South Korea: report
  By Nikita Vladimirov - 04/07/17 The National Security Council has presented President Trump with options in response to North Korea's nuclear program that include placing American nuclear weapons in South Korea, NBC News reported on Friday. Multiple top-ranking military and intelligence officials told the news source that another option presented to Trump by the National Security Council is an operation to kill the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. According to NBC News, both scenarios were part of a review of North Korea policy prepared ahead of Trump's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week Placing nuclear weapons in South Korea will be the first nuclear deployment overseas since the end of the Cold War, NBC noted. Washington withdrew all of its nuclear assets from South Korea 25 years ago. A senior intelligence official told the network that he doubted U.S. and China could find a diplomatic solution to the crisis. [Tactical nuclear weapons] [US NK policy]
• Seoul Tests Its Own 800-km Ballistic Missile
  By Lee Yong-soo April 07, 2017 10:01 South Korea has recently succeeded in test-firing a homegrown ballistic missile, tentatively dubbed Hyunmu-2C, with a 800-km range, a military source said Thursday. The news comes five years after the U.S. agreed to increase the permissible range of South Korean missiles from 300 km to 800 km. The new missile can hit any part of North Korea and is slated for deployment later this year. This file photo shows the test-firing of a 500-km Hyunmu-2B ballistic missile in Taean, South Chungcheong Province in June 2005. /Courtesy of the Agency for Defense Development It was test-fired at a test site of the Agency for Defense Development in Taean, South Chungcheong Province as Defense Minister Han Min-koo looked on, the source said. He added it "met standards in all categories" but was programmed to fly only a short distance. Hyunmu-class missiles include the Hyunmu-2A with a range of 300 km, the Hyunmu-2B with a range of 500 km, and the Hyunmu-3 cruise missile with a range of 1,000 km. Once the Hyunmu-2C is deployed, the military will be capable of hitting any target in North Korea from a safe distance in the south of the country that lies outside the range of the North's new 300-mm multiple rocket launchers and Scud-B missiles. It is designed to disable North Korean missile facilities in the early stages of a war. Four North Korean missile bases that pose a threat to South Korea lie within 300 km from central South Korea, six within 400 km, and nine within 550 km. In the 2012 negotiations with Washington on revising the missile guidelines, Seoul focused on the maximum payload as well as extension of the range. Under the revised guidelines, it can now can develop 800 km-range ballistic missiles with a maximum payload of 500 kg, but if it increases the weight it has to shorten the range. The military is also believed to have made progress on rocket re-entry technology while developing the Hyunmu-2C. Re-entry technology is needed because any missile with a range of more than 600 km briefly leaves the Earth's atmosphere. [Missile test] [Hyunmoo] [Reentry] Double standards]
• Will North Korea fire a missile capable of hitting the U.S. mainland? Probably.
  By Anna Fifield April 5 at 10:25 AM North Korea launched a fourth missile test of the year on April 5, all believed to be in pursuit of crafting an intercontinental ballistic missile that can hit the United States. (Reuters) SEOUL — North Korea has made no secret of its desire to build an intercontinental ballistic missile, or ICBM, capable of reaching the continental United States. In his New Year’s Day address, Kim Jong Un said that North Korea has “entered the final stage of preparation for a test-launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile.” In response, President Trump tweeted: “It won’t happen!” North Korea has quite a track record when it comes to making bold threats it can’t deliver on, but many analysts take Pyongyang at its word. “They want a long-range missile with a warhead on it,” said Jon Wolfsthal, a senior nonproliferation adviser in the Obama administration who is now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “We should be worried about the direction that things are going in.” [Deterrence] [ICBM] [Media]
• S. Korea conducts successful test of longer-range ballistic missile
  Posted : 2017-04-06 15:33 Updated : 2017-04-06 19:22 By Jun Ji-hye South Korea has successfully test-fired a new ballistic missile with a maximum range of 800 kilometers that puts the whole of North Korea within striking distance, military sources said Thursday. The military intends to complete the development of the new missiles and deploy them by the end of this year in response to the North's nuclear and missile capacities. Once mass-produced and deployed, the nation's new strategic weapons will be used to attack the military leadership and key facilities in Pyongyang in the event of a war, the sources added. "A test-firing of a Hyunmoo-type ballistic missile with a range of 800 kilometers recently took place at the Anheung test site of the Agency for Defense Development (ADD) under the wing of the Ministry of National Defense," a source said, asking not to be named. "The test was assessed as successful." [Missile] [Hyunmoo] [Double standards]
• North's latest missile launch presumed to have failed
  Posted : 2017-04-06 16:13 Updated : 2017-04-06 19:29 By Jun Ji-hye North Korea remained silent, Thursday, about the ballistic missile it launched the previous day, raising speculation that the launch may have failed. The North's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) conventionally unveils reports and photos about the Kim Jong-un regime's missile launches a day after they take place in an apparent bid to show off its military strength. But the state media did not release any comments on the latest launch, leading outside experts to cautiously conclude that it ended in failure. Kim Dong-yup, an analyst at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University, raised two possibilities with regard to the North's silence. "A failed launch could have been the reason for the KCNA not reporting anything, but there is another possibility that there was no report probably because Kim Jong-un did not observe the test," he said. Citing unnamed U.S. defense officials, AFP as well as Japan's Kyodo News also reported the missile suffered an in-flight failure before crashing into the East Sea. On Wednesday, the North launched the missile, which flew about 60 kilometers, according to the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS). Both the JCS and the U.S. Pacific Command issued their initial assessment that it was a KN-15 medium-range missile, called the Pukguksong-2 by the North. But foreign news reports suggest that the missile is believed to be a Scud-ER (extended range). The JCS maintained its initial assessment. "There is no additional information to provide other than that a further analysis is under way, as I said yesterday," Col. Roh Jae-cheon, the JCS spokesman, said. [Missile test]
• Allies seem 'confused' about N. Korea's latest missile firing
  Posted : 2017-04-06 14:03 Updated : 2017-04-06 14:09 South Korean and American military officials are apparently struggling to determine the exact type of ballistic missile that North Korea fired earlier this week, their public comments and news reports suggested Thursday. Hours after the launch from the North's eastern coastal area Wednesday, South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said "a type of KN-15 intermediate-range ballistic missile" flew around 60 kilometers into the East Sea. Citing an initial assessment, the U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM) also said the projectile appears to be a KN-15 ballistic missile, which Pyongyang calls Pukguksong-2. Fired from a land-based facility in the port city of Sinpo, it flew nine minutes, added PACOM. But foreign news agency quoted unnamed U.S. defense officials as saying later that the missile might be a Scud-ER (extended range). They were cited as saying that the launch ended in a failure as the missile crashed into the waters after in-flight trouble. JCS officials were guarded about the news reports. "There is no additional information to provide other than that a further analysis is under way, as I said yesterday," Col. Roh Jae-cheon, the JCS spokesman, said at a press briefing. He would not confirm if the North's latest missile firing was a success or a failure. [Missile test] [Intelligence]
• DPRK fires projectile into east waters
  Xinhua, April 5, 2017 The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) on Wednesday test-fired one ballistic missile into eastern waters, South Korea's defense ministry said. A Seoul ministry official told Xinhua that the ballistic missile was fired at about 6:42 a.m. local time from Sinpo in North Hamgyeong province, in northeastern DPRK. The missile flew about 60 km into its eastern waters. It was not known what type of missile it was as the military authorities of South Korea and the United States are still analyzing the firing. [Missile]
• N. Korea fires missile into East Sea ahead of US-China summit
  Posted : 2017-04-05 07:37 Updated : 2017-04-05 10:55 North Korea launched a ballistic missile Wednesday into the East Sea, South Korea's military said, just two days ahead of summit talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. "North Korea fired a ballistic missile into the East Sea from a site in the vicinity of Sinpo, South Hamgyong Province, at around 6:42 a.m.," the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said in a statement. "The flight distance is about 60 kilometers." The projectile is estimated to be "a type of KN-15 medium-range ballistic missile," also known as Pukguksong-2, and the maximum altitude of its flight was 189 km, a senior JCS official later told reporters. "It's still premature to conclude whether the test-firing was a success or failure," he added. "It was detected by South Korean Navy's Aegis ship operating in the East Sea and the Air Force's ballistic missile warning system." He said the North seems to have aimed to test the technology of its ballistic missile technology and also considered the timing just before the U.S.-China summit. Citing an initial assessment, the U.S. Pacific Command also said the projectile seems to be a KN-15 ballistic missile fired from a land-based facility.
• North Korea showing signs of conducting nuke test ahead of China-US summit
  Posted on : Mar.31,2017 15:03 KST Modified on : Mar.31,2017 15:03 KST In showing activity at test site, the North could be planning a test, or seeking to send a political message North Korea’s nuclear test site in Punggye Village, on Jan. 4, 2013 (left) and Mar. 28 (right). The picture on the right shows people in formation and observing. (38 North) For several days now, bustling activity has been detected at North Korea’s nuclear test site at Punggye Village in North Hamgyong Province. North Korea could play the nuclear test card in the run-up to the first summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Apr. 6-7. China’s Defense Ministry has announced plans to respond harshly to the deployment of the THAAD missile defense system. [Test]
• Is North Korea planning a sixth nuclear test?
  Posted on : Mar.30,2017 16:58 KST Modified on : Mar.30,2017 16:58 KST A satellite photograph posted on Mar. 25 by the North Korean affairs website 38 North, showing apparent activity preparing for a nuclear test at North Korea’s nuclear test site in Punggye Village. (38 North, via Yonhap News) Activity detected at test site, while North Korea’s state media argues repeatedly for the legitimacy of its nuclear program The North Korean media have been repeatedly arguing for the legitimacy of the North’s possession of nuclear weapons. Since this coincides with a series of reports in the foreign media about ongoing detection of activities presumed to be preparations for another nuclear test at North Korea’s nuclear test site in Punggye Village, there is increasing speculation that a sixth nuclear test may be imminent. [Test]

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MARCH 2017

• N. Korea's sixth nuclear test seen imminent
  Posted : 2017-03-29 17:03 Updated : 2017-03-29 17:14 By Jun Ji-hye North Korea is likely to conduct another nuclear test next month as signs abound that its preparations have entered the final stage, according to military officials and experts Wednesday. The test would possibly come around the summit between the U.S. and China scheduled for early April or the 105th anniversary of founder Kim Il-sung's birthday, April 15, they said. U.S.-based North Korea monitoring website, 38 North, said Tuesday that commercial satellite imagery of the Punggye-ri nuclear test site, taken March 25, showed the continued presence of three to four vehicles or equipment trailers at the entrance to the North Portal, an entrance to the underground site. The website noted that the texture of the ground suggested that communications cables may have been laid in a strong indication that preparations were in their final stage. [Test]
• N. Korea estimated to have some 1,000 drones
  Posted : 2017-03-29 11:14 Updated : 2017-03-29 11:14 A South Korean state-run think tank reported Wednesday North Korea is presumed to possess about 1,000 drones, raising concerns they could be used for airborne terror attacks. North Korea is focusing on developing drones in a bid to make up for the inferiority of the country's air forces and better conduct reconnaissance, Chung Ku-youn, a research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said in a report. "North Korea's air forces are inferior to its South Korean counterpart and an absence of military satellites is making it difficult for Pyongyang to reconnoiter (the South)," the report said. Chung expressed concerns about North Korea's possible use of drones for terrorist attacks or provocations. [Drones] [Military balance] [Media] [Satellite] [Surveillance]
• Huge nuclear cost overruns push Toshiba's Westinghouse into bankruptcy
  By Tom Hals, Makiko Yamazaki and Tim Kelly | WILMINGTON, DEL./TOKYO Westinghouse Electric Co, a unit of Japanese conglomerate Toshiba Corp (6502.T), filed for bankruptcy on Wednesday, hit by billions of dollars of cost overruns at four nuclear reactors under construction in the U.S. Southeast. Bankruptcy will allow Pittsburgh-based Westinghouse to assess whether to continue construction of the first new U.S. nuclear power projects in three decades for utility companies SCANA Corp (SCG.N) and Southern Co (SO.N). The company also provides nuclear design, engineering and decomissioning work around the globe, and said in court filings that its nuclear fuel and power plant servicing operations are "very profitable." Westinghouse and affiliates intend to use bankruptcy to "isolate them from the one specific area of their businesses that is losing money: their construction of nuclear power plants in Georgia and South Carolina," the company said in a filing in Manhattan's U.S. Bankruptcy Court. For Toshiba, the filing will help keep the parent company afloat and ringfence it from soaring liabilities from Westinghouse. Toshiba said Westinghouse-related liabilities totaled $9.8 billion as of December, making it one of the industry's most costly collapses to date. [Westinghouse] [Nuclear energy] [Toshiba]
• US, Allies, Stage Protest Outside UN General Assembly Hall as Nations Gather in Unprecedented Meeting to Ban Nuclear Weapons
  Contact: Greg Mello, gmello@lasg.org, 505-265-1200 or 505-577-8563 New York – This morning, at the United Nations headquarters in New York, negotiations will begin to ban the possession, development, and use of nuclear weapons, pursuant to a mandate passed by a wide margin in the General Assembly late last year. (Proceedings should be webcast at UN TV . Live updates are available here. The twitter feed for ban proceedings is #nuclearban.) About two-thirds of the world’s countries are expected to participate in the four-week process, which will proceed from general statements this week, to a draft text sometime in the spring, to final negotiations over a three-week period in late June and early July. The United States and other nuclear weapon states are boycotting these negotiations as are all NATO states with the exception of the Netherlands. Australia, South Korea, and Japan will also be absent, though Japan will apparently attend today to condemn the proceedings before leaving. [Nuclear disarmament]
• A sixth North Korean nuclear test could be imminent
  Posted on : Mar.26,2017 08:30 KST Modified on : Mar.26,2017 08:30 KST North Korean leader Kim Jong-un observed the test of a high power rocket engine on Mar. 19, Korean Central Television reported. (Yonhap News) US officials detect evidence of excavation around nuclear test site in North Korea, dispatch reconnaissance aircraft North Korea is in the final stages of preparation for carrying out another nuclear test in a few days, Fox News reported on Mar. 23. “The [sixth] test could come as early as the end of the month,” Fox News quoted one US government official as saying in the report. Pentagon officials said they had acquired evidence that North Korea has finished excavating a new tunnel near its nuclear test site at Punggye Village, Kilju County, North Hamgyong Province. Before it can carry out a nuclear test, the officials added, the North still needs to bring in a few more pieces of equipment to the test site. [Test]
• North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: Possible Vehicles Located at Tunnel Entrance
  By 38 North 25 March 2017 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. and Jack Liu Commercial satellite imagery of the Punggye-ri nuclear test site indicates the presence of possibly four or five vehicles or trailers at the entrance to the North Portal, the site of North Korea’s past four nuclear tests. If these vehicles are related to test preparations, they could be involved in the installation of instrumentation or even a nuclear device. However, the evidence is not definitive, therefore they may be there for other purposes as well. [Test]
• S.Korea must consider nuclear option for sure deterrence against N.Korea: Expert report
  2017.03.24 16:33:06 | 2017.03.24 17:33:52 More than 530 people attend the 26th Vision Korea National Conference held to celebrate the 51st anniversary of Maeil Business Newspaper on Thursday. [photo by Kim Jae-hoon] More than 530 people attend the 26th Vision Korea National Conference held to celebrate the 51st anniversary of Maeil Business Newspaper on Thursday. [photo by Kim Jae-hoon] For fundamental deterrence against escalating North Korean nuclear weapons threat, South Korea should seriously consider going nuclear through the options of using the country’s existing advanced facility and technology in producing commercial nuclear energy or sharing U.S. nuclear weapons in South Korea, advised experts from home and abroad. The Korea Security Report, compiled by the Maeil Business Newspaper and Sejong Institute with the help of over 40 experts on North Korea, security, political, economic, and international affairs, set the stage for public debate on the nuclear option for South Korea that has long been a tabooed idea. Among the advisers were Baek Jong-chun, former presidential secretary on foreign and security policy, Edwin Feulner, former president of Heritage Foundation, and Jonathan Pollack, senior fellow of Brookings Institution. [Nuclearisation] [MISCOM] [Hawks]
• N.Korea 'Doubles Size of Uranium Facility'
  By Kim Jin-myung March 22, 2017 11:56 North Korea has doubled the size of a facility for enriching uranium in recent years, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency told the Wall Street Journal on Tuesday. Yukiya Amano said the North is "rapidly advancing its capacity to produce nuclear weapons on two fronts: the production of plutonium at its Yongbyon nuclear facility and the enrichment of uranium. The situation is very bad... It has gone into a new phase." Since IAEA inspectors were expelled in 2009, the IAEA has kept monitoring the pace of the regime's nuclear development based on satellite images of its nuclear facilities and other information. Analysis of satellite images led to the conclusion that the size of the Yongbyon nuclear facility, which is also believed to be used to enrich uranium, has doubled since 2009. "All of the indications point to the fact that North Korea is making progress, as they declared," Amano added. [IAEA] [UNUS] [Nuclear weapons]
• North Korea says it has completed development of new ICBM rocket engine
  Posted on : Mar.20,2017 17:25 KST Modified on : Mar.20,2017 17:25 KST North Korean leader Kim Jong-un observes the test of a new rocket engine, at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station in Tongchang Village, Cholsan County, North Pyongan Province, in photos from the Mar. 19 edition of the Rodong Sinmun newspaper. (Yonhap News) Now flight performance test is the only remaining step in development of intercontinental ballistic missile Following a ground jet test, North Korea announced that development was complete on a new rocket engine. According to North Korea’s claims, the only step left in its development of the first stage of an ICBM is the flight performance test. Pyongyang’s announcement is likely to cause repercussions, considering that it comes shortly after US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson hinted during a visit to South Korea on Mar. 17 that the US would take a harder line on North Korea, declaring the end of the Barack Obama administration’s policy of strategic patience. [Engine test] [ICBM] [SLV] [Media] [Heading]
• N. Korea conducts botched missile launch: military
  Posted : 2017-03-22 11:48 Updated : 2017-03-22 14:30 North Korea test-fired a missile from its east coast Wednesday that appears to have failed, South Korean and U.S. defense authorities said as the allies continued an annual joint military training on the peninsula. "North Korea fired one missile from an area near the Wonsan Air Base this morning, but it's presumed to have failed," the ministry said in a brief statement, adding it was "not fired normally." The military is still trying to confirm details, including the type of projectile and whether the missile blew up midair or not. The U.S. defense authorities said the North's missile seems to have exploded shortly after takeoff. [Test] [Failure]
• N. Korea focusing on ICBM reentry technology
  Posted : 2017-03-21 17:37 Updated : 2017-03-22 11:57 By Jun Ji-hye North Korea will seek to show the United States its capability of striking a designated target on the American mainland in its next test of a ballistic missile, military officials and experts here said Tuesday. Pyongyang is apparently preparing to launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), and at stake is whether it has secured the necessary re-entry technology. [Reentry] [Engine test] [SLV]
• North Korea Launches Missile, but Test Appears to Fail
  By Choe Sang-hun March 22, 2017 SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea fired a missile off its east coast on Wednesday, but the test apparently failed, South Korean and American military officials said. North Korea launched the missile from near an air base in Wonsan, a port city, the South Korean Defense Ministry said in a brief statement. “We believe the test was a failure,” the ministry added, providing no further details, such as the type of missile launched. Commander Dave Benham, a spokesman for the United States Pacific Command, said in a statement that the missile “appears to have exploded within seconds of launch.” The United States has been conducting a covert cyberwarfare program aimed at sabotaging North Korean missile tests in their opening seconds. But it was impossible to determine whether that program was a factor in the apparent launch failure Wednesday. [Test] [Cyberwar]
• North Korean missile explodes seconds after launch
  A North Korean missile appeared to explode within seconds of launch early March 22, the U.S. Pacific command says. (Reuters) By Anna Fifield March 22 at 1:18 AM TOKYO — A North Korean missile fired Wednesday morning exploded within seconds of launch, the South Korean and U.S. militaries said, a reassuring sign for those worried about the speed at which North Korea’s weapons program has been progressing. The launch attempt comes at a time of heightened tensions in the region, with the United States and South Korea conducting joint military exercises aimed at countering the North Korean threat and the Trump administration clearly signaling it is prepared to use force to stop Kim Jong Un’s regime. [Test] [Joint US Military] [Threat]
• Nuclear compellence, nuclear deterrance, nuclear reassurance?
  By Peter Hayes March 21, 2017 I. INTRODUCTION This essay by Peter Hayes analyzes the significance of US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s statements that Japanese and South Korean nuclear proliferation are “on the table” in negotiations with China over what to do about North Korea. Hayes concludes that: “Tillerson’s playing the nuclear compellence card was not only strategically unsound, but vacuous. The notion that the Chinese can be herded by cracking a whip or softened up in advance of the presidential summit on such a complex and important issue is absurd.” [Tillerson] [US Japan alliance] [Nuclearisation]
• N.Korea Tests New Rocket Engine
  By Lee Yong-soo, Yu Yong-weon March 20, 2017 09:37 North Korean leader Kim Jong-un watched the combustion test of a new rocket engine at a launch site in Tongchang-ri, North Pyongan Province, state media reported Sunday. Kim hailed the success as a "new birth" for the country's rocket industry and added, "The development and completion of a new-type high-thrust engine would help consolidate the scientific and technological foundation to match the world-level satellite delivery capability in the field of outer space development," according to the [North] Korean Central News Agency. [Engine test]
• Seoul says N. Korea's rocket engine 'meaningful' progress
  Posted : 2017-03-20 15:10 Updated : 2017-03-20 15:10 South Korea's defense ministry said Monday that North Korea's latest high-thrust rocket engine test was a "meaningful" advance in its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) development program. The assessment came a day after Pyongyang's state media announced the successful testing of the new device at a missile site near the border with China, a move viewed as part of the secretive regime's preparations for another long-range rocket launch. "It's assessed that there was meaningful progress in engine efficiency with the test," a ministry official told reporters, saying it reflects the ministry's official assessment. It added that the North's newly unveiled equipment seems to have one main engine with four back-up ones connected. The ministry, however, was guarded about more details, citing the need for further analysis. Nonetheless, the ministry's announcement was quite unusual, given its propensity to play down the level of the North's missile and nuclear program in public statements. [Engine test]
• Bruce Cumings: North Korea Timed Recent Missile Test to Take Place During Trump-Abe Dinner
  March 13, 2017 Guests Bruce Cumings professor of history at the University of Chicago. He is the author of several books on Korea, including Korea’s Place in the Sun: A Modern History and North Korea: Another Country. North Korea tested a ballistic missile last month, sparking widespread international condemnation. The test was a violation of a United Nations Security Council resolution. North Korea claimed the test was a successful launch of an intermediate-range missile. The test came while Trump hosted Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe over the weekend at the Trump-owned Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida. We speak to professor Bruce Cumings about the significance of the timing of North Korea’s action. TRANSCRIPT This is a rush transcript. Copy may not be in its final form. AMY GOODMAN: And then talk about what this means for what has taken place over the weekend, in the last weeks, with North Korea, the launch of the missiles, and then the U.S.-South Korea military exercises. BRUCE CUMINGS: Well, of course, the U.S. holds these exercises every year, because South Korea, under Park’s leadership, is a welcoming country for these war games involving, as you said, hundreds of thousands of troops. There aren’t many other countries in the world who are willing to do that. And the North, predictably, responds every time with missile tests or bomb, atomic bomb, blasts. [Test] [[Unpredictable] [US joint military]
• N. Korea conducts ground test of advanced missile engine
  Posted : 2017-03-19 07:34 Updated : 2017-03-19 10:34 North Korean leader Kim Jong-un observed the ground jet test of a new high-thrust rocket engine, the country's state-run media said Sunday, an indication that Pyongyang may engage in future provocation despite warnings by the international community. According to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), Kim who holds the title of supreme commander of the Korean People's Army, visited the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground to personally inspect the performance of the engine developed by the Academy of the National Defense Science. The report hinted that the test took place on Saturday. [Engine test]
• Advanced US Military Communications Satellite Launches Into Orbit
  By Irene Klotz, Space.com Contributor | March 18, CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. — A Delta IV rocket blasted off Saturday night (March 18) to deliver a $445 million U.S. military communications satellite into orbit, the ninth member of a planned network of 10 satellites. Built and flown by United Launch Alliance, the 22-story tall booster lifted off from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station here at 8:18 p.m. EDT (0018 March 19 GMT), soaring out over the Atlantic Ocean after a 34-minute delay to resolve an issue with ground support equipment. United Launch Alliance is a partnership of Lockheed Martin Corp and Boeing Co. Perched on top of the rocket was the U.S. Air Force's ninth Wideband Global SATCOM (WGS) satellite, built by Boeing.
  In exchange for part-time use of the WGS network, Canada, Denmark, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and New Zealand picked up the $442 million bill to manufacture WGS-9. The United States has a similar partnership with Australia, which paid for the WGS-6 spacecraft that was launched in 2013. International partners receive proportional access to the bandwidth provided by the WGS constellation based on financial contribution, the Air Force said. [Communications] [Satellite] [NZ]
• N.Korea Tried to Sell H-Bomb Material Online
  By Kim Jin-myung March 10, 2017 11:16 North Korea last year tried to sell lithium-6, a core material for the production of hydrogen bombs, on an open website, a report by a UN Security Council panel said Thursday. If the North had enough lithium-6 to sell overseas, it also seems more likely that it really tested a so-called boosted fission nuclear weapon, a precursor to a hydrogen bomb, in tests last year. A ballistic missile with solid fuel propellant is fired from Panghyon Airport in North Pyongan Province in this February photo from North Korea's official Rodong Sinmun daily. Making nuclear weapons with tritiated water using lithium-6 would also make it easier to miniaturize nuclear warheads so they fit on a missile. The UNSC panel of experts last summer discovered a lithium-6 sales ad on Global Companies, a website that introduces businesses around the world. The ad said, "We are General Precious Metal Complex (GPM) based in Beijing, China. We can offer 10 kilograms of the lithium metal..." It adds it can ship out the material from Dandong within a month. The sale of lithium-6 is banned around the world. The UNSC panel soon found out that GPM is an alias for Chongsong Yonhap, a North Korean arms exporter. Chongsong Yonhap was sanctioned by the U.S. in 2010 over its sales of the CHT-02D torpedo, the model that sank the South Korean Navy corvette Cheonan in March that year. It has been under fresh sanctions imposed by the UNSC since 2012. [Media] [Canard] [Heading] [H bomb] [Evidence]
• [Editorial] Redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons is not a solution to N. Korean nuke issue
  Posted on : Mar.6,2017 17:19 KST Modified on : Mar.6,2017 17:19 KST The USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier in the South China Sea, Mar. 3. The U.S. military took journalists on the carrier on that day, during a patrol off the South China Sea, with the intention of sending a signal to China and US allies of its commitment to ensure freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea. (AP/Yonhap News) In its efforts to develop new North Korea policy, the Donald Trump administration in the US is reportedly weighing the option of redeploying tactical nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula. There’s even been talk of a preemptive strike on the North, a secondary boycott against China, and additional THAAD system deployments on the Korean Peninsula. A new government is entitled to consider every option as it forms its policy, but it’s worrying to see how much of its focus is on hard-line options that are unrealistic and create serious side effects. Tactical weapons, or small-scale nuclear weapons, were deployed with US Forces Korea for decades before being removed completely in 1991. This is what led to then-US President George H. W. Bush’s nuclear disarmament declaration and South and North Korea’s agreement on a declaration for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. North Korea’s nuclear development program flies in the face of that denuclearization declaration. Redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons is not a solution, since it would legitimize North Korea’s nuclear development and encourage a nuclear arms race. Yet what lie beneath the arguments for redeployment from some South Korean and US hard-liners is the assumption that the nuclear issue is unresolvable. Their aim is to replace efforts to solve that issue with a “balance of terror.” [Tactical nuclear weapons]
• [Analysis] North Korea may be gauging Trump administration’s response with launch of four missiles
  Posted on : Mar.7,2017 16:42 KST Modified on : Mar.7,2017 16:42 KST US, China and Japan all voice condemnation of missile launch that comes during S. Korea-US military exercises North Korea launched four missiles in succession on Mar. 6, once again announcing an end to its hiatus on missile launches since late 2016. North Korea had not launched any missiles since a Musudan on Oct. 20 of last year. The break was a relatively long one when contrasted with the one to four missiles launched every month earlier last year. The period lasted from the final stages of the US presidential election until just after the inauguration of the Donald Trump administration. Pyongyang may have waited to see the new US administration’s process of re-examining its North Korea policy. The North launched missiles on Feb. 12, breaking a silence that had lasted an unprecedented period of over four months. The latest launches are the second since then. But while the Feb. 12 launch was focused on testing the new Pukguksong-2 missile, the latest launches appear more likely to be intended as launch exercises for existing missiles. “If they were test-launching a new missile, they wouldn‘t be firing four at a time,” said Kim Dong-yeop, a professor at the Kyungnam University Institute for Far Eastern Studies. “It’s very likely that they were launching existing missiles as both a winter exercise and a response to South Korea and the US‘s joint military exercises,” Kim added. The launch appears to hint at the possibility of Pyongyang returning to its past pattern of active missile launching. Photos from the Mar. 7 edition of the Rodong Simun newspaper of the Mar. 6 launch of four ballistic missiles from Tongchang Village, North Pyongan Province. The photos also showed North Korean leader Kim Jong-un observing the launch and applauding. (Yonhap News) North Korea appears to have launched its latest missiles at a regular rather than high angle. The altitude of a missile at a normal trajectory is typically one-third to one-fourth of its firing range. The figures for the latest missiles - a flight path of 1,000 km and an altitude of 260 km - roughly fall in line with those observed in a normal launch. North Korean missile varieties capable of traveling around 1,000 km when launched normally include the Nodong and Scud extended range missiles. On the morning of Mar. 7, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said the missiles appeared to be extended range Scuds. [Test] [Missile] [Joint US military]
• US expert: uranium price falling, why is S. Korea seeking expensive spent fuel processing facilities?
  Posted on : Mar.7,2017 16:34 KST Modified on : Mar.7,2017 16:34 KST Frank von Hippel, professor at Princeton University Frank von Hippel says South Korea is trying to develop two kinds of technology other countries have failed at “The price of uranium is gradually falling, and it costs twice as much to acquire spent fuel processing facilities for running a fast reactor. I don’t understand why [South Korea] is trying to acquire such expensive facilities,” said Frank von Hippel, 80, a professor at Princeton University, during a lecture at a seminar called “Truth and Lies about Pyroprocessing” that was held at the Daejeon Youth We Can Center on Feb. 28. Von Hippel is the American nuclear expert who first proposed the term “proliferation resistance.” “The Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute is trying to develop the two technologies that all other advanced countries have failed to develop, which is to say reprocessing spent nuclear fuel and liquid sodium-cooled fast reactors. While they claim to be pursuing nuclear fuel reprocessing as a way to manage nuclear waste, this doesn’t improve the problem but only makes it worse while incurring tremendous costs,” von Hippel warned. “I don’t think the Trump administration and the Republicans are going to change the Obama administration’s nuclear policy [of non-proliferation],” he said. [Nuclear fuel cycle] [Autonomy]
• What Was Behind N.Korea's Latest Missile Launches?
  By Lee Yong-soo March 07, 2017 11:10 North Korea's launch of several ballistic missiles on Monday was not a complete surprise since the North has typically resorted to provocations in response to joint South Korea-U.S. military drills in March and April every year. What worries observers is that four of them seem to have had a range of over 1,000 km. Three missiles that landed in Japan's exclusive economic zone are believed to have been Scud ER models with a maximum range of 1,000 km or Rodong missiles capable of hitting targets 1,300 km away. They may even have been upgraded ballistic missiles. All have been developed to target either the Japanese mainland or U.S. military installations in Japan, but if they are fired at a high angle they can hit any target in South Korea and their supersonic speed (Mach four to five) of descent make them impervious to existing Patriot missile interceptors. The U.S.' Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense battery to be stationed here this year is the only defense system capable of thwarting them, according to U.S. officials. [Missile] [Test] [THAAD]
• Tactical nuke deployment would fuel the arms race spreading across East Asia
  Posted on : Mar.6,2017 17:23 KST Modified on : Mar.6,2017 17:23 KST 2017 Defense Budgets for US, China and Japan & Comparison of US, Chinese and Japanese military strength US, China and Japan have all announced increases in defense spending amid growing antagonism Amid intensifying strategic conflict between the US and China in the Asia-Pacific region - including the deployment of THAAD on the Korean Peninsula and the dispute over the South China Sea - the arms race in the region is slowly becoming more overt. After both the US and China announced major increases in their defense budgets, even Japan has said that it will revoke the principle of 1% defense spending that it has maintained for the past 40 years, suggesting that an arms race is sweeping over all of Northeast Asia. The first salvo in the regional arms race was fired by US President Donald Trump. On Feb. 27, Trump announced that he would increase the national defense budget, which was US$583 billion as of the 2017 fiscal year, by US$54 billion, or 10%, in 2018. This was the first concrete step to implement Trump’s national security approach of “peace through strength.” “We have to start winning wars again,” Trump said as he announced the increased defense budget. In 2016, former US President Barack Obama reduced the defense budget to 85% of its peak in 2010, citing the huge budget deficit. [Arms race] [Military balance]
• Trump administration considering redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons
  Posted on : Mar.6,2017 17:22 KST Modified on : Mar.6,2017 17:22 KST B61 nuclear bombs in storage Tactical nukes were removed from South Korea in 1991; possible redeployment could lead to spike in regional tensions The US Donald Trump administration is reportedly considering the redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula, raising questions about the back story and the outcome of future discussions. If US Forces Korea does reintroduce tactical nuclear weapons, the return will come 26 years after their removal. In Jan. 1958, USFK first confirmed deployment of the Honest John, a surface-to-surface rocket capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, and a 280-mm nuclear cannon. In the years after, it went on to introduce aerial nuclear weapons, a 155-mm nuclear cannon, and “backpack nukes.” But as signs of an end to the Cold War became apparent in 1991, the tactical nuclear weapons were pulled from the peninsula as part of then-US President George H.W. Bush‘s nuclear disarmament pl [Tactical nuclear weapons]
• DPRK test-fires 4 ballistic missiles into east waters
  Xinhua, March 6, 2017 The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) test-fired four ballistic missiles into east waters early Monday as combined forces of South Korea and the United States launched their joint military exercises last week, the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) of South Korea said. The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) test-fired four ballistic missiles into east waters early Monday. [Photo/Xinhua] The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) test-fired four ballistic missiles into east waters early Monday. [Photo/Xinhua] The JCS was quoted by local media as saying that four ballistic missiles of an unidentified type were fired from an area near Tongchanri-ri in the DPRK's northwest region at about 7:36 a.m. local time (2236 GMT on Sunday). The missiles flew about 1,000 km into the eastern waters. [Joint US military] [Missile] [Test] [Warning]
• North Korea launches more missiles; 3 land in Japanese waters
  North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visited Mangyongdae Revolutionary School and planted trees with its students last week. (KCNA/Reuters) By Anna Fifield March 5 at 8:25 PM TOKYO — North Korea launched four missiles Monday morning, a provocative barrage that coincided both with joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises on the southern half of the peninsula and with the opening of the annual National People’s Congress in China. The launches follow a remarkable month in which Kim Jong Un’s regime tested a solid-fuel rocket that it says is part of an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of hitting the United States and in which the regime is accused of assassinating the leader’s half brother. Both actions have angered allies and adversaries in the region, and Monday’s launches will only exacerbate that. [Joint US military] [Test] [Missile]

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FEBRUARY 2017

• Continued Activity at North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site
  By 38 North 24 February 2017 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. and Jack Liu. Recent commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test facility shows continued low-level activity at many locations within the installation. In particular, the shifting of supplies and equipment as well as additional changes in the texture and pattern of small sections of the tailings pile at the North Portal indicate continuing work inside the test tunnels. These activities suggest continued preparation and maintenance of this portal for use in a new nuclear test. Should the decision be made to do so, North Korea could probably move forward with a nuclear test in short order but it remains unclear when such a test might take place. North Portal Commercial satellite imagery from February 18 shows that the location of equipment or supplies adjacent to the support building immediately south of the North Portal has shifted repeatedly since October 2016. Combined with changes in the texture and pattern of small sections of the tailings pile, these activities suggest continued preparation and maintenance of this portal for use in a new nuclear test. Should the decision be made to do so, North Korea could probably move forward with a nuclear test in short order but it remains unclear when such a test might take place.
• Russia's Next Gen S-500 Prototype Launch Date Announced
  17:42 19.02.2017(updated 18:00 19.02.2017) The test unit of Russia's next-generation S-500 air defense system will be ready by 2020, Deputy Defense Minister Yuri Borisov told Sputnik. S-500 to Strengthen Russia's 'Air Defense System of the 21 Century' The S-500 Prometey, also known as 55R6M Triumfator-M, is a cutting-edge anti-aircraft and anti-ballistic missile system currently under development in Russia. The S-500, designed by Almaz Antei, is said to have a range of 600 kilometers. The system can simultaneously intercept up to ten ballistic and hypersonic missiles traveling at a speed of up to 7 kilometers per second. [Air defense] [Missile defense]
• Russia’s new ICBMs can ‘rip apart’ US anti-missile systems – Deputy PM Rogozin
  Published time: 20 Feb, 2017 08:47 © Sergey Kazak / Sputnik Russia is constantly improving its nuclear deterrence and is very close to deploying new technologically-advanced intercontinental ballistic missiles which can defeat any US missile defense systems, a Russian deputy prime minister said in an interview. TrendsMissile defense shield “These weapons will soon appear in our armed forces,” Dmitry Rogozin told Rossiya-1 TV on Sunday. While not naming the new ICBM, the deputy PM in charge of the defense industry said the missile will have the capacity to penetrate any American air defenses. “These weapons are able to clear the United States’ missile defense both of today and of tomorrow – and even of the day after tomorrow,” Rogozin said. Read more Russia unveils first image of prospective ICBM set to replace ‘Satan’ missile Rogozin also noted that the existing Russian nuclear deterrent forces, made up of various missiles including the Soviet-era R-36M2 Voevoda (SS-18 Satan) ICBMs, which he described as “very reliable,” will remain in use until the latest arsenal becomes operational. While the weapon of the future wasn’t named, media were quick to allege that Rogozin was most likely describing the RS-28 Sarmat heavy intercontinental ballistic missile, which is being introduced as part of Russia’s nuclear modernization. [ICBM] [Missile defense] [Military balance]
• 'Tipping point' just a few years away for N. Korea's nuclear weaponization
  Posted : 2017-02-19 11:10Updated : 2017-02-19 11:10 The "tipping point" for North Korea's nuclear weaponization may be only a few years away, South Korea's top diplomat has warned in Munich, calling the ongoing nuclear crisis a ticking bomb. In a speech on Saturday at the Korean Peninsula session first launched during the Munich Security, Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se also said that the North's recent missile provocation is a "prelude" to the reclusive state arming itself with a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile. [ICBM] [Nuclear capability]
• Finding the Real Site for the Pukguksong-2 Launch
  By Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. 17 February 2017 On Sunday, February 11, 2017, North Korea conducted the first test launch of its “Pukguksong-2, solid-fuel missile,” a land-based version of the KN-11 Pukguksong-1 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), but not from the facility that almost all media sources have reported.[1] The development of the Pukguksong-2 was not unexpected and the system successfully flew a lofted trajectory, reaching an estimated altitude of 575 km and flying approximately 500 km before falling into the East Sea (Sea of Japan).[2] Almost all initial reporting indicated that the missile was launched from the Panghyon Airbase in North Pyongan Province, located in the northwest. When, however, North Korea released still and video imagery of the test it was clear to North Korea watchers that the test was not conducted from the Panghyon Airbase, but from the Iha-ri Vehicle Testing and Driver Training Facility approximately 9.5 km to the north-northeast.[3] The choice of the Iha-ri facility was undoubtedly due to its proximity (only 5 km) to the No. 95 Factory (Kusong Tank Factory) where it is believed the transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) and its support vehicles were designed and manufactured.[4] It is likely that the Pukguksong-2 pre-test imagery released by North Korea was taken here. [Test] [Pukguksong-2]
• North Korea’s February Intercontinental Surprise?
  NAPSNet Blue Peter February 16, 2017 by Peter Hayes, Honorary Professor, Center for International Security Studies, Sydney University, and Director, Nautilus Institute. Peter Hayes writes that the missile tested on February 12 2017 was not an intercontinental missile. Rather it was most likely a land-based version of the same missile fired previously from a submarine. If deployed and fired at sea at the ROK, it would overwhelm THAAD missile defenses in Korea. Although it was not a February intercontinental surprise, the DPRK is deliberately gaining missile capability unless the United States and its partners address its security concerns and reverse its trajectory toward full-scale nuclear armament with all the risks of loss of control and inadvertent war resulting from this outcome. [Pukguksong-2] [US NK policy]
• North Korea missile test a response to U.S. provocations, not the other way around
  By Derek Ford Feb 14, 2017 On February 12, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) successfully tested the Pukguksong-2, an intermediate range ballistic missile, firing it into the East Sea. The test should not have been a surprise, as Kim Jong-Un publicly announced plans for a missile test more than a month earlier. Like almost anything the country does, it was met with immediate condemnation from the mainstream media and the imperialist governments and their institutions. A spokesperson for UN Secretary General António Guterres issued a statement accusing the DPRK of violating Security Council resolutions, demanding that the country “return to full compliance with its international obligations and to the path of denuclearization.” This is a markedly different response than that which greeted the U.S. Air Force in September 2016, when they tested an intercontinental ballistic missile—with a range 12 times greater than the DPRK’s missile—by firing it into the Pacific Ocean. There was no international condemnation. The UN wasn’t up in arms. They didn’t insist that the U.S. was behaving recklessly. They didn’t use it as an opportunity to point out that the U.S. is clearly in violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. [Test] [Double standards]
• [Analysis] Can THAAD intercept North Korea’s Pukguksong-2 ballistic missile?
  Posted on : Feb.15,2017 15:47 KST Controversy comes out at National Assembly over speed and range of recently launched missile The National Intelligence Service (NIS) reported to the National Assembly on Feb. 14 that the Pukguksong-2 ballistic missile launched by North Korea on Feb. 12 was fired at a high angle of 89 degrees and would have a firing range of 2,000 km if fired at a normal angle. The NIS also said the missile traveled at a speed of Mach 8.5, or 8.5 times the speed of sound, which conflicts with military intelligence authorities’ assessment that its speed was “Mach 9.5 or higher.” The discrepancy raised questions over whether intelligence agencies are exchanging even basic information. In response to the controversy, the NIS belatedly revised its number, saying the “report to the Intelligence Committee was based on initial analysis” and that the “comprehensive analysis showed a flight speed of Mach 10.” [Pukguksong-2] [NIS] [Intelligence] [THAAD]
• The Pukguksong-2: A Higher Degree of Mobility, Survivability and Responsiveness
  By John Schilling 13 February 2017 Sources in the United States, South Korea and Japan reported that North Korea launched a ballistic missile over the weekend. North Korea has been hinting at an intercontinental ballistic missile test since the beginning of the year, but this was no ICBM. Reports indicate that this missile reached a height of 550 kilometers before impacting in the East Sea, 500 kilometers east of the DPRK. The US Strategic Command describes this as a medium or intermediate-range ballistic missile. South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency reported that Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff initially assessed the missile as a Nodong medium-range missile, then changed their mind and said it was a “modified intermediate-range Musudan ballistic missile possibly equipped with a solid fuel engine.” Finally, North Korea’s Rodong Sinmun provided pictures of what it is calling the “Pukguksong-2, solid-fuel missile.” The pictures show something very similar to the KN-11 solid-fuel submarine-launched missile successfully tested last August, which North Korea calls the Pukguksong-1. [Pukguksong-2] [Missile] [Test] [Deterrence]
• Bull in a China shop
  By Hassan Arshad Chattha China.org.cn, February 14, 2017 A very dangerous game [By Zhai Haijun / China.org.cn] Success is a strange thing that has marvelous and strange effects. Beliefs become dogmas, confidence becomes conviction, fear becomes a conquest. It can alter the state of mind, and the alteration is proportional to the magnitude of the success. Many personal traits become amplified. Following the recent missile test by the North Koreans, these considerations are something that key U.S. allies Japan and South Korea as well as sworn enemy of the U.S. North Korea seem not to understand. Everyone seems to be treating this as the same old song and dance. According to a high-ranking defector, the North Koreans are taking advantage of the leadership transition in the U.S. and the ongoing political turmoil in South Korea to test the waters through this routine provocation. The missile tests are done, statements have been issued, stern warnings sounded, veiled and not so veiled threats made, assurances of unwavering support demanded and received. [Test] [Chinese IR]
• Details Emerge of N.Korea's New Missile
  By Cho Yi-jun, Kim Jin-myung February 14, 2017 09:39 The projectile North Korea launched on Sunday was a new intermediate-range ballistic missile propelled by a solid fuel engine. The regime also published footage of a new mobile launch vehicle with caterpillar treads. The solid fuel technology and launch vehicle suggest that the regime is close to being capable of striking U.S. military bases as far afield as Guam and avoid detection. . A missile (top) takes off from the launch pad in this screen grab from [North] Korean Central TV on Sunday.; Officials check a mobile launch vehicle (bottom) in this screen grab from [North] Korean Central TV on Sunday. The official [North] Korean Central News Agency said the "strategic intermediate-range ballistic missile Pukkuksong-2" was tested successfully. It described it as an improved version of a submarine-launched ballistic missile whose test launch was successful in August last year. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un expressed satisfaction over the creation of another nuclear weapons delivery system, KCNA added. The previous day, South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff speculated that the missile was an improved medium-range Musudan. White House policy adviser Stephen Miller on Sunday said the U.S. government would be "sending another signal very soon" to the North. "That signal is when we begin a great rebuilding of the armed forces of the United States," he added. He added Washington would show "unquestioned military strength beyond anything anyone can imagine." Cory Gardner, the chairman of the U.S. Senate Subcommittee on East Asia, the Pacific and International Cybersecurity Policy, urged the Trump administration to take a "determined and resolute U.S. policy toward North Korea." He called for additional sanctions, a secondary boycott of Chinese businesses dealing with the North, and the early deployment of a U.S. Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense battery in South Korea. The UN Security Council is expected to hold an urgent meeting on Tuesday at the request of South Korea, the U.S., and Japan and adopt a press statement denouncing the North. . © This is copyrighted material owned by Digital Chosun Inc. No part of it may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written permission. [Test] [Pukkuksong-2]
• China Slams N.Korean Missile Test
  By Lee Kil-seong February 14, 2017 11:36 Beijing on Monday condemned North Korea's launch of a new medium-range missile and pledged to cooperate with the international community in censuring the North. "China opposes North Korea's launch of ballistic missiles in violation of UN Security Council resolutions," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang told reporters. He added that Beijing will "participate constructively in UN Security Council discussions" about a response that are scheduled for Tuesday. Asked if the U.S. asked China to apply more pressure on North Korea following its latest provocation, Geng said, "As I have pointed out repeatedly in the past, the root cause to the North Korea nuclear missile issue is the conflicts between North Korea and the United States, as well as between North and South Korea." He also said Beijing views North Korea's missile test and the deployment of a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense battery from the U.S. in South Korea as "separate" issues. But he warned that deploying the THAAD battery "will not solve the problem." . [Test] [China]
• [Analysis] North Korea’s missile launch part of plan to move from liquid to solid fuel
  Posted on : Feb.14,2017 16:29 KST An image from the Feb. 13 edition of the Rodong Sinmun newspaper of the Feb. 12 launch of the Pukguksong-2 ballistic missile (Yonhap News) In response, South Korea’s military is hurrying to introduce long-range precision strike capability North Korea‘s test launch on Feb. 12 of the Pukguksong-2 (meaning Polaris-2), a ballistic missile with solid fuel propellant, is thought to be part of its plan to reorient its military assets from liquid fuel to solid fuel, which is better suited for surprise launches. On Feb. 13, Pyongyang’s Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) identified the Pukguksong-2 as an “intermediate-range ballistic missile” and made clear that the missile used “a newly developed high-output solid fuel engine.” Military experts typically categorize ballistic missiles by their range into short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM, 1,000km or less), medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBM, 1,000-3,000km), intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBM, 3,000-5,500km) and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM, 5,500km). But some experts use different terminology, such as short-range, intermediate-range, mid- to long-range and intercontinental ballistic missiles. North Korea is following this precedent when it describes its missile as a “mid- to long-range ballistic missile,” implying that the missile has a range of 3,000 to 5,500 km. This would put the missile, along with the Musudan, in striking distance of the US strategic base on the Pacific island of Guam. [Test] [Pukguksong-2] [Solid fuel]
• Trump administration condemns North Korea’s ballistic missile test
  Posted on : Feb.14,2017 16:14 KST On Feb. 13, US Pentagon spokesperson Jeff Davis spoke out about North Korea’s launch on Feb. 12 of the Pukguksong-2 ballistic missile, describing North Korea‘s weapons programs as “unlawful” and a serious threat to national security. On the same day, President Donald Trump said he would deal with North Korea “very strongly,” calling the North a “big, big problem.” The North’s missile test occurred during a visit to the US by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Trump “stood shoulder to shoulder with the prime minister of Japan and sent a message to the whole world that we stand with our allies,” said Stephen Miller, senior advisor at the White House and believed to be one of US President Donald Trump’s closest aides, when asked by a CBS reporter during an interview on Feb. 12 why Trump had not specifically criticized North Korea during an emergency joint press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Feb. 11. [Test] [US NK policy] [Pukguksong-2]
• North fires ballistic missile, challenging Trump
  Posted : 2017-02-12 08:52Updated : 2017-02-13 16:14 U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks on North Korea accompanied by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Fla., Saturday. North Korea fired a ballistic missile early Sunday in what would be its first such test of the year and an implicit challenge to Trump. / Reuters-Yonhap Trump, Abe slam Pyongyang's provocation By Jun Ji-hye North Korea fired a ballistic missile into waters off its east coast Sunday, the first provocation since the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump, according to South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS). The JCS said the missile was believed to be an ungraded version of the Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), considering its speed. [Missile] [Test] [Trump]
• DPRK claims successful test firing of ballistic missile
  Xinhua, February 13, 2017 The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) on Monday claimed it successfully test-fired a surface-to-surface medium- and long-range ballistic missile Pukguksong-2 and its top leader Kim Jong Un guided the test firing, according to the state news agency KCNA. News program about test-fire of a ballistic missile of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) is seen on TV at the Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea, Feb. 12, 2017. [Photo/Xinhua] News program about test-fire of a ballistic missile of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) is seen on TV at the Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea, Feb. 12, 2017. [Photo/Xinhua] The state media called Pukguksong-2 a "Korean style new type strategic weapon," which was developed on the instructions of top leader Kim Jong Un on the basis of the success made in the test-firing of the submarine-launched ballistic missile last August. Kim received the report on the development of this surface-to-surface ballistic missile, set the date for the test launch and personally guided the preparations on the spot, it said. The missile test proved the reliability and security of the surface launch system and starting feature of the high thrust solid fuel-power engine and reconfirmed the guidance and control features of the ballistic missile during its active flight and working feature of the engines and those of separation at the stages, the KCNA said. The launch also verified the position control and guidance in the middle section and section of re-entry after the separation of the improved missile warhead, which can be tipped with a nuclear warhead, and the feature of evading interception, it added. The state-run media noted that the test firing was conducted at a high angle considering security of the neighboring countries. [Missile] [Test] [Pukguksong-2]
• N.Korea Fires Missile as Trump Meets Abe
  By Lim Min-hyuk, Cho Yi-jun February 13, 2017 09:32 North Korea fired a ballistic missile on Sunday as an attention-getter shortly after U.S. President Donald Trump met with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The missile, which flew some 500 km and reached a height of 550 km before falling into the East Sea, is believed to be an improved version of a projectile observers call Musudan, the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff said. . [Missile] [Test]
• S. Korea, US, Japan call for UNSC meeting on Pyongyang's missile test
  Posted : 2017-02-13 12:18Updated : 2017-02-13 12:18 South Korea, the United States and Japan have asked the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to convene an emergency meeting to discuss countermeasures against North Korea's latest missile provocation, a foreign media report said Monday. Citing a spokesperson of the U.S. mission to the world body, AFP said that the three countries requested an "urgent" meeting to have consultations after the North conducted a ballistic missile test Sunday. The meeting is expected to be held Monday afternoon (local time), it added. A diplomatic source here said that South Korea is seeking a "response" through the UNSC, apparently referring to the ongoing efforts to induce an action from the Security Council aimed at punishing the North for its latest missile test. On Sunday, South Korea said it detected a modified Musudan type intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) being fired from Banghyon air base in the western province of North Pyongan Province at 7:55 a.m. Its military said the missile reached a height of 550 kilometers and flew about 500 km before splashing into the East Sea. Earlier in the day, the North claimed that it "successfully" test-fired a surface-to-surface medium-range ballistic missile named Pukguksong-2 on Sunday. The North's latest provocation drew strong condemnation from neighbors and the international community. Pyongyang is banned from conducting any missile tests using ballistic technology under UNSC resolutions. [Missile] [Test] [UNSC] [UNUS]
• N. Korea's missile threat 'may widen volatility in financial market'
  Posted : 2017-02-13 12:11Updated : 2017-02-13 12:11 South Korea's finance minister said Monday that he will take appropriate action if North Korea's latest missile provocation sparks a widening of volatility in the local financial market. "In the short term, (the missile launch) will likely stir up volatility in the financial market and the real economy," Finance Minister Yoo Il-ho said in a staff meeting in Sejong. "The government will actively deal with uncertainties and if necessary, we will take market-stabilizing action in a timely manner." [Missile] [Test] [Finance]
• DPRK test-fires ballistic missile
  Xinhua, February 12, 2017 The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) fired what is believed to be a ballistic missile into its eastern waters early Sunday, South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said. The presumed intermediate-range Musudan ballistic missile was launched at around 7:55 a.m. local time (2255 GMT Saturday) near Banghyeon in the DPRK's northwestern North Pyongan province. The projectile is estimated to have traveled about 500 km, according to the JCS. It landed in waters off the DPRK's east coast, according to local media reports. Pyongyang test-fired Musudan missiles near the same place, where an airfield is located, in October last year. It was the DPRK's first test-launch of a ballistic missile in 2017 and also the first since U.S. President Donald Trump took office on Jan. 20. [Musudan] [Test]
• N. Korea test-fires non-ICBM missile into East Sea
  Posted : 2017-02-12 13:26Updated : 2017-02-12 13:26 A man watches a TV news program reporting about North Korea's missile launch at the Seoul Train Station in Seoul, South Korea, Sunday, Feb. 12, 2017. The letters read "The ruling and the opposition parties denounce North Korea's missile launch." / AP-Yonhap North Korea on Sunday fired a ballistic missile into the East Sea in show of force against the Donald Trump government's hard-line stance toward the communist state, the South Korean military said. It is the first test-firing of a North Korean missile since Trump became U.S. president on Jan. 20., and the country's first major provocation in 2017. "The missile launch is a clear violation of the United Nations Security Council resolutions. It is aimed at drawing attention from the international community, and showing off its nuclear and missile capabilities in protest against the new U.S. government," Seoul's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said in a text message. The JCS, however, said the latest missile did not appear to be an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of hitting the U.S. mainland. The projectile, presumed to be an intermediate-range Musudan ballistic missile or a mid-range Rodong missile, flew about 500 kilometers before splashing into its eastern sea after being launched around 7:55 a.m. from Banghyon air base in the western province of North Pyongan Province, the JCS said. The relative short range has local experts speculating the projectile could be a Musudan or a similar rocket designed to test engines for an ICBM. [Musudan] [Test]
• North Korea fires ballistic missile, first since Trump elected in U.S.
  North Korea test launched a ballistic missile early Sunday, Feb. 12. After news of the missile test, President Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was visiting the U.S. at the time, held a brief joint news conference and presented a united front against the ballistic missile. (Reuters) By Anna Fifield February 11 at 11:36 PM TOKYO — North Korea fired a ballistic missile Sunday morning, its first provocation since Donald Trump was elected president of the United States and one that sets up a test for the new administration in Washington. The missile was fired shortly before 8 a.m. local time from a known test site in North Pyongan province in the west of the country, not far from the border with China, and flew over the Korean Peninsula and into the Sea of Japan, South Korea’s joint chiefs of staff said. The launch happened while President Trump was hosting Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at his golf resort in Florida. In a brief joint appearance after the news of the missile test, the two presented a united front. Abe called the test “absolutely intolerable.” He said that in his summit with Trump at the White House on Friday the president “assured me the United States will always stand with Japan 100 percent.” [Musudan] [Test]
• Pentagon Panel Urges Trump Team to Expand Nuclear Options Report suggests ‘tailored nuclear option for limited use’
  Posted Feb 2, 2017 7:29 PM John M. Donnelly @John M. Donnelly Mick Mulvaney's Budget Stance on Defense Could Get Awkward In Break from Trump, Mattis Pushes for Tough Stance on Russia Panel Sets Vote on Waiving Waiting Period for Mattis Save for later From left, First lady Melania Trump, President Donald Trump, Maj. Gen. Bradley Becker, Vice President Mike Pence, and his wife Karen Pence prepare to review the troops on Inauguration Day. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call) John M. Donnelly @John M. Donnelly Posted Feb 2, 2017 7:29 PM Save for later A blue-ribbon Pentagon panel has urged the Trump administration to make the U.S. arsenal more capable of “limited” atomic war.The Defense Science Board, in an unpublished December report obtained by CQ Roll Call, urges the president to consider altering existing and planned U.S. armaments to achieve a greater number of lower-yield weapons that could provide a “tailored nuclear option for limited use.”The recommendation is more evolutionary than revolutionary, but it foreshadows a raging debate just over the horizon. - [Nuclear strategy] [Limited War] [Tactical nuclear weapons]
• To Test or Not to Test: The Question for North Korea
  February 6, 2017 Much like 2016, Kim Jong-un began 2017 by grabbing international attention when he stated that North Korea had entered the final stages of preparation for an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test. In subsequent days Pyongyang went further and declared that it could launch an ICBM anytime and anywhere, adding to expectations that it could test the incoming Trump administration or seek to take advantage of political turmoil in Seoul. While North Korea will not permanently foreswear testing, this could be a time where inaction is preferable to action. There has been a growing sense that North Korea has a preference for nuclear and missile tests near key dates to gain maximum international exposure or build domestic support on key occasions. Since Kim Jong-un’s announcement there has been speculation that North Korea would conduct an ICBM test to mark his birthday on Jan. 6, or an ICBM launch to coincide with Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20 to immediately test the new administration. Both dates have come and gone with no test. Now there is speculation North Korea will test near Kim Jong-il’s birthday on Feb. 16, or in response to the annual joint military exercises between the United States and South Korea in the spring. An expectation has set in that North Korea will test, the only questions are when and why. [Test] [ICBM]
• Pyongyang may play 'waiting game' on ICBM
  Posted : 2017-01-31 09:29Updated : 2017-01-31 09:29 North Korea may not test fire ICBM soon By Kim Jae-kyoung SINGAPORE ? North Korea will not test-fire an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in the near future, said William Brown, a professor at the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service. The prediction came as growing jitters after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said early this month that the reclusive country is in the final stages of developing an ICBM able to mount a small nuclear warhead. The Washington-based North Korea expert said Monday that Pyongyang still has to go through numerous tests to make sure that its launch will be successful. "There are a lot of tests that Pyongyang needs to undertake before it can prove an ICBM with a nuclear attack capability and the U.S. will have plenty of chances, I suspect, to interrupt that process if it is determined to do so," Brown said in an interview. He believes that at the moment, the unpredictable North Korean leader will not try to test U.S. President Donald Trump because of the volatile billionaire's unpredictability. "Kim is likely unsure of how Trump will react, and thus may be a little afraid to push his ICBM technology too fast, risking an embarrassing failure or even a U.S. or Japanese attack on his rocket," he said. Brown, who previously worked for the CIA, the Commerce Department and the National Intelligence Council for North Korean issues, thinks that Kim might play a "waiting game," seeing how politics in the U.S. and South Korea works out. [ICBM] [NK US policy]

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JANUARY 2017

• North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Facility: Operations Resume at the 5 MWe Plutonium Production Reactor
  By 38 North 27 January 2017 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu and Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. New commercial satellite imagery indicates that operations at the 5 MWe plutonium production reactor located at North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center has likely resumed. Analysis from January 18 showed signs that Pyongyang was preparing to restart the reactor after spent fuel rods had previously been unloaded for a reprocessing campaign that produced additional plutonium for its nuclear weapons stockpile. Imagery from January 22 shows a water plume (most probably warm) originating from the cooling water outlet of the reactor, an indication that the reactor is very likely operating. [Yongbyon]
• Can the US Prevent North Korea from Testing an ICBM?
  By Michael Elleman 27 January 2017 According to the New York Times, Kim Jong Un proclaimed to the North Korean people, during his annual New Year’s address, that the military is in the “final stages in preparations to test-launch an intercontinental ballistic rocket.” A North Korean intercontinental ballistic missile, or ICBM, would be capable of threatening the continental United States. In response, President Donald Trump tweeted: “North Korea just stated that it is in the final stages of developing a nuclear weapon capable of reaching parts of the U.S. It won’t happen!” Not to be outdone, the Wall Street Journal published an opinion piece advocating for the US to employ its sea-based, missile interceptors to knock down the North Korean ICBM should Pyongyang conduct a test launch. However, contrary to the hopes expressed by editors at the Wall Street Journal, the US does not have a proven capability to intercept an ICBM using sea-based assets. The Pentagon may nonetheless attempt to shoot down a North Korean ICBM with SM-3 interceptors based on Aegis destroyers, should Pyongyang elect to test one in the near future. However, the likelihood of success is limited, if not improbable. In fact, the probability that the North Korean ICBM test will fail on its own is significantly higher than the probability of success. [ICBM] [Test]
• Pakistan Tests Ballistic Missile Capable of Carrying Multiple Nuclear Warheads
  VOA News January 25, 2017 08:18 Pakistan says it has successfully tested a surface-to-surface ballistic missile that is capable of carrying multiple nuclear warheads and can hit targets with precision as far as 2,200 kilometers. Tuesday's maiden flight test of the Ababeel missile was announced by military spokesman Major General Asif Ghafoor. He said it "has the capability to engage multiple targets with high precision, defeating the enemy's hostile radars." Earlier this month, Pakistan successfully tested for the first time a submarine-launched, nuclear-capable cruise missile with a range of 450 kilometers. Officials say the "Babur-3" missile provides Pakistan with a secure second strike capability. . [Pakistan] [IRBM]
• UK missile test failure 'covered up' by government
  Xinhua, January 23, 2017 The government "covered up" a malfunctioned unarmed test of Britain's Trident missile system, The Sunday Times reported. The Trident II D5 ballistic missiles are carried by Britain's four Vanguard-class submarines, and they are able to deliver thermonuclear warheads from multiple independently-targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs). In a front page article, the newspaper says that the failed test took place shortly before Theresa May became prime minister, "but she omitted any mention of the failed test when she persuaded parliament to spend 40 billion pounds on new Trident submarines in her first big Commons speech on July 18." [Trident] [SLBM] [Failure]
• May faces pressure after reports of Trident test malfunction
  A test firing of an unarmed British nuclear Trident missile from a submarine malfunctioned last June, the Sunday Times reported, prompting questions about why Prime Minister Theresa May did not tell parliament ahead of a vote on renewing the submarines. The paper quoted an unnamed senior naval source as saying the missile may have veered off in the wrong direction towards the American mainland when it was fired off the coast of Florida. It was the only test firing of a British nuclear missile in four years and came shortly before May became prime minister in the wake of Britain's vote last June to leave the European Union, the paper said. It said May had omitted any mention of the failed test when she persuaded parliament to spend 40 billion pounds on new Trident submarines in her first major speech to parliament as prime minister last July. Asked four times during a BBC television interview on Sunday whether she knew about the misfire before she made that speech, May repeatedly declined to answer directly. "I have absolute faith in our Trident missiles. When I made that speech in the House of Commons what we were talking about was whether or not we should renew our Trident, whether or not we should have Trident missiles," she said. "There are tests that take place all the time, regularly for our nuclear deterrent." The Times said Trident missiles have been test-fired only five times by UK submarines this century because they each cost 17 million pounds. [Trident] [SLBM] [Failure]
• Is the Kalma Ballistic Missile Test Site Ready for an ICBM Launch?
  By Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. 23 January 2017 North Korea has recently threatened to conduct its first test of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Last week, media reports even cited “unnamed” South Korean officials stating a test of a previously unknown 2-stage ICBM “may be imminent.”[1] While the North’s ability to produce a 2-stage ICBM is questionable and validity of these reports remains to be verified, they have heightened concerns as to when Pyongyang may decide test launch an ICBM. One of the possible locations for an ICBM test is the Kalma Ballistic Missile Test Site located on the shores of the East Sea adjacent to the Kalma International Airport.[2] Opened around May-June 2016, the test site consists of a single 24-meter-by-17-meter concrete-paved launch position surrounded by a sand berm, grading for a second firing position and graded access roads. It is supported by several components of the Kalma International Airport including a pull-through hangar for pre-launch preparations, two observation and support buildings and a paved parking lot. It is probable that the airport’s radars are used to support ballistic missile tests by both tracking missile flights and ensuring that the East Sea airspace is clear of traffic. [ICBM] [Test]
• Missile failure off Florida? British leader won’t say
  FILE - In this file photo dated Monday, Dec. 4, 1989, a Trident II missile launched by the U.S. Navy during a performance evaluation from the submerged submarine USS Tennessee in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Cape Canaveral in Titusville, Fla., USA. According to Britain’s Sunday Times newspaper published Sunday Jan. 22, 2017, an unarmed nuclear test missile fired by a British submarine off the coast of Florida in 2016, misfired and the failure was allegedly covered up ahead of a debate in Parliament on the future of the Trident missile system. British Prime Minister Theresa May has refused to say whether she knew about the reported failure. (Phil Sandlin, FILE/Associated Press) By Gregory Katz|AP January 22 LONDON — The British government is being accused of concealing the failure of an unarmed ballistic missile launch ahead of a debate in Parliament over whether to refurbish the country’s aging Trident nuclear launching system. Britain’s prime minister refused to say Sunday whether she knew about an unarmed Trident missile that reportedly failed when it was test-fired off the coast of Florida last year. Theresa May told BBC she has total confidence in Britain’s Trident nuclear launching system, but didn’t confirm or deny a newspaper report about the alleged failure of a ballistic missile designed to carry nuclear warheads. [Trident] [SLBM] [Failure]
• U.S. says might not shoot down North Korean ICBM, eying intel
  Kim Jong Un smiles as he visits Sohae Space Center in Cholsan County, North Pyongan province for the testing of a new engine for an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in this undated photo released April 9, 2016. KCNA/via REUTERS By Phil Stewart and Idrees Ali | WASHINGTON The U.S. military might monitor a North Korean intercontinental ballistic missile test and gather intelligence rather than destroy it, as long as the launch did not pose a threat, Defense Secretary Ash Carter said on Tuesday. North Korea declared on Sunday it could test-launch an ICBM at any time from any location set by leader Kim Jong Un, saying a hostile U.S. policy was to blame for its arms development. "If the missile is threatening, it will be intercepted. If it's not threatening, we won't necessarily do so," Carter said in his final news briefing before President Barack Obama's administration leaves office on Jan. 20. "Because it may be more to our advantage to, first of all, save our interceptor inventory, and, second, to gather intelligence from the flight, rather than do that (intercept the ICBM) when it's not threatening." The top U.S. military officer, Marine General Joseph Dunford, who will stay in his role as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, concurred with Carter at the event but did not enter into specifics. Carter's language left open the possibility of U.S. military action in any scenario. Carter's remarks came just over a week after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump vowed that North Korea would never fulfill its threat to test an ICBM. Trump said in a Jan. 2 tweet: "It won't happen!" [ICBM] [Test] [Interception]
• Is North Korea Preparing a Missile Test?
  By John Schilling 21 January 2017 Is a North Korean missile test on the horizon? On January 19, South Korea’s Yonhap news agency reported that North Korea had placed two missiles on mobile launchers in preparation for possible testing in the early days of the Trump administration. Details are still scarce, and it should be noted that North Korea has in the past prepared missiles for launch without conducting any test. As we recently noted, missile “tests” are often political demonstrations, and often what is being demonstrated includes an element of restraint. And, of course, if launch preparations indicate technical problems likely to lead to failure, the nature of the demonstration will likely be changed to accommodate the technical reality. Still, it is possible that North Korea could conduct a missile test in the next few days. [ICBM] [Test] [Failure]
• Air force gets first Arrow 3 missile defense battery
  Israel enters ‘new age’ as US-Israeli system designed to shoot down ballistic missiles goes operational By Judah Ari Gross January 18, 2017, The Israeli Air Force received its first Arrow 3 missile defense system on Wednesday, a little over a year after its first real-world test, the Defense Ministry said. Get The Times of Israel's Daily Edition by email and never miss our top stories Free Sign up! After years of development and testing, the system is now considered operational, though it will continue to undergo checks and improvements, the ministry said "We’re entering a new age — the age of the Arrow 3,” Moshe Patel, the head of Israel’s missile defense program, said at the unveiling ceremony for the system. “Today, we delivered to the air force the first Arrow 3 interceptor, with interception capabilities that are much greater and can be done from much farther away than anything that we have now,” Patel said. From right, Moshe Patel, David Ivri, Brig. Gen. Tzvika Haimovitch, Boaz Levi, Danny Gold and Brig. Gen. William Cooley stand in front of a Arrow 3 missile defense system that was delivered to the Israeli Air Force on January 18, 2017. (Defense Ministry) The Arrow 3, which was developed in a joint Israeli-American program, is designed to shoot down intercontinental ballistic missiles outside the atmosphere, taking out the weapons and their nuclear, biological, chemical or conventional warheads closer to their launch sites. The system is considered to be one of the most advanced in the world. Its design is the brainchild of the Defense Ministry’s Israel Missile Defense Organization and the US Missile Defense Agency, but the system was actually produced by the missile division of the Israel Aerospace Industry. The Arrow 3 has been in development for nearly a decade, starting in 2008. “The missile here, behind me, once sat on my drafting table. To see it here, delivered to the air force, is very emotional for me,” said Boaz Levi, vice president of IAI’s Systems, Missiles & Space Group. The Arrow 3 is one part of a multi-layered missile defense system designed to protect Israel from short-, medium- and long-range attacks. The Iron Dome, for instance, is routinely used to knock down short-range missiles from the Gaza Strip. The yet-to be deployed David’s Sling is designed to intercept medium-range missiles. “I am sure that this system, along with the others that we have and that will join our arsenal in the future, like the David’s Sling, will give us more effective and meaningful capabilities,” said Brig.-Gen. Tzvika Haimovich, head of the army’s Aerial Defense Command. With the Arrow 3 system declared operational, Israel and the United States may now be the only countries capable of shooting down ballistic missiles in space. [Missile defense] [Israel]
• N. Korea's ICBM test-firing imminent
  North Korean leader Kim Jong-un poses for a group photo during his tour of a company under the Korean People's Army's Unit 233. The Korean Central News Agency reported Kim's first inspection of the military unit in the new year, Thursday, saying he stressed the need to boost the country's combat readiness. / Yonhap By Jun Ji-hye North Korea is apparently ready to test-fire an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at any time and from any location once its leadership decides to do so, Seoul's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said Thursday. The comment came after intelligence sources said the North has probably built two missiles, presumed to be the new ICBMs, and placed them on transport erector launchers (TELs), apparently for the test-firing. [ICBM] [Test]
• North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Facility: Possible Resumption of Operations at the 5 MWe Plutonium Production Reactor
  By 38 North 18 January 2017 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. Commercial satellite imagery collected from October 2016 through January 2017 indicates that Pyongyang’s campaign to reprocess plutonium wound down at the end of last year and that the North may now be preparing to resume operations at the 5 MWe plutonium production reactor, which ceased operations in late-2015. Stepped-up activities throughout the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center indicate that it is operating at a level somewhat above what has been observed during the past five years and that may continue into the future. The exact implications of that activity remain unclear except to reaffirm that the Yongbyon facility remains the center of North Korea’s nuclear program. [Yongbyon]
• N. Korea repeats threat to launch ICBM as Trump is set to take office this week
  North Korea on Wednesday defended its move to test-fire an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) as an act of self-defense against the United States, warning that no one can take issue with Pyongyang's plan. North Korea's move to launch the missile would contribute to bringing peace and stability to Northeast Asia and the world, the country's main newspaper Rodong Sinmun said. "As our country possesses hydrogen bombs as well as miniaturized and diversified nuclear weapons, test-firing an ICBM will have significant meaning for us," the daily claimed. [ICBM] [Threat] [Deterrence] [Media]
• North Korea to Test ICBM: War Looms Large in Pacific
  North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said in a televised new year’s address that he was prepared to test-fire an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). On January 8, the country’s leader stated the ICBM will be launched anytime and anywhere. The statements fueled speculation that Pyongyang will test a missile around the time of Trump’s inauguration. In response, President-Elect Donald Trump has vowed the test will not happen. He gave no indication as to how his administration intends to proceed, prompting speculation about a possible US military strike against a North Korean launch site. [ICBM] [Russian IR]
• Sohae Satellite Launching Station: No Signs of an Upcoming Launch
  By 38 North 13 January 2017 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. and Jack Liu. While North Korea threatens to test an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and speculation continues that Pyongyang will conduct a provocation (such as a satellite launch or rocket engine test) to “test” the incoming Trump administration, commercial satellite imagery from November 2016 through January 2017 of the Sohae Satellite Launching Station provides no evidence of an imminent launch or engine test. However, the site does remain capable of conducting a launch or engine test at any time and with little warning.[1] Activity at the Sohae launch facility over the past three months indicates both long-term preparations for an engine test and further infrastructure development including paving of roads, construction at support and warehouse facilities and continued housing development. [SLV] [Satellite] [Provocation]
• U.S. High-Tech Radar Watches for N.Korean Missiles
  By Yu Yong-weon, Kim Myong-song January 13, 2017 10:03 The U.S. Pentagon has deployed a giant floating radar in anticipation of an intercontinental missile launch from North Korea, CNN reported Wednesday. The sea-based X-band radar was deployed in response to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's claim in his New Year's address on Jan. 1 that preparations for an intercontinental ballistic missile have "reached the final stage." It has a range of 4,800 km and is capable of monitoring most of China as well as the Korean Peninsula from Okinawa. The X-band radar is the same type as the one that will come with a U.S. Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense battery that is to be deployed in South Korea, but the software is different and provides for a much longer range. The THAAD radar to be deployed here will only have a maximum range of 1,000 km. China is nonetheless worried that the THAAD radar is meant to spy on its military activities in the region, but the U.S. and South Korean insist it is only meant to keep the South safe from North Korean missiles. CNN did not specify exactly where the floating radar will be deployed. Other media reports said it could be deployed midway between Hawaii and Alaska after departing from its home port in northern Hawaii. "The radar has been deployed in the West Pacific several times to monitor the North's long-range missile launches," a military source said. "Its range is so long that there's no need to deploy it in the East Sea, but it could move from Hawaii to the West Pacific near Japan." . [X-band Radar] [THAAD] [ICBM] [China confrontation]
• 2016 Defense White Paper estimates North Korea has 50kg of plutonium
  Posted on : Jan.12,2017 16:46 KST The launch of Hwasong 10 Musudan missiles, in an image released by North Korean Central Television (AFP/Yonhap News) The Defense Ministry’s plutonium estimates are somewhat higher than those of American analysts In the 2016 Defense White Paper that was released on Jan. 11, South Korea’s Defense Ministry concluded that North Korea has enhanced its nuclear capability by increasing its plutonium holdings to than 50kg. The White Paper, which is published every other year, was posted to the Defense Ministry’s website on Jan. 11. The White Paper will also be distributed in complete printed form at the end of this month. The White Paper’s plutonium estimate is up 10kg from the around 40kg of plutonium that the 2014 defense white paper estimated was in North Korea’s possession. “This reflects the fact that the 5MW reactor in Yongbyon has been running for more than 2 years since being reactivated in 2013,” said an official with the Defense Ministry. Given that between 4 and 6kg of plutonium goes into a single nuclear bomb, North Korea has enough plutonium to manufacture 10 such bombs. [Plutonium] [Estimate]
• How Might North Korea Test an ICBM?
  By John Schilling 12 January 2017 In his 2017 New Year’s Address, Kim Jong Un mentioned (among many other things) that North Korea had “entered the final stage of preparation for the test launch of intercontinental ballistic missile.” It should be noted that this was neither the focus of his speech—which, for the most part, was a list of last year’s accomplishments—nor was it an announcement that a test would occur any time soon. Quite possibly, it was a signal to the new dealmaker-in-chief of the United States that North Korea might be ready to make a deal: to not conduct the provocative test for the right price. Still, we should consider the possibility that a test may occur in the near future. In which case, how might this happen and what might it mean? [ICBM]
• N.Korea's Plutonium Stockpile 'Grows Alarmingly'
  By Lee Yong-soo January 12, 2017 09:45 North Korea's plutonium stockpile has grown to some 50 kg, enough to make two or three more nuclear weapons, according to South Korea's 2016 defense white paper. The white paper issued by the Defense Ministry on Wednesday carries latest information on the North Korean military, including its nuclear, missile and conventional military capacities. It says the North has about 50 kg of weapons-grade plutonium from reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel rods. The amount is calculated by tallying the plutonium acquired from the reactor at the Yongbyon nuclear facility, which reopened in 2013 and subtracting the plutonium spent on recent nuclear tests, a military spokesman said. It was estimated jointly by the U.S. and South Korea. The white paper also notes that the North "has made significant progress in a highly enriched uranium program and miniaturizing nuclear warheads," but gives no specific data. The ministry previously estimated the North's plutonium stockpile at 40 kg since 2008 but has come under fire for making no efforts to change that estimate despite two more nuclear tests since then and the reopening of the Yongbyon reactor. . [Plutonium] [Nuclear capability]
• N. Korea rehashes vows for marvelous developments in ICBM
  North Korea on Wednesday claimed boastfully again its capabilities to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), while warning that even America is not in a safe position. "Marvelous developments to strengthen (the North's) defense power will be unfolded in a multi-phased and successive manner, the Rodong Sinmun, a daily of the North's ruling Workers' Party, said in an editorial titled "We'll (the North) Keep Building up Self-defense Power and Pre-emptive Strike Capabilities." The paper also insisted that North holds abilities to realize the miniaturization, weight lightening and multi-variety production of nuclear weapons and vehicles to fire them at any time to a place to be determined by its leader Kim Jong-un. [ICBM] [Deterrent]
• N.Korea 'Could Fire Long-Range Missile from Mobile Launcher'
  By Yu Yong-weon January 10, 2017 18:59 The Defense Ministry here on Monday warned that North Korea "seems to be capable" of launching an intercontinental ballistic missile from a mobile launcher. In a press briefing, ministry spokesman Moon Sang-kyun said, "We're keeping a close watch on the North's big anniversaries this year as possible dates for an ICBM launch." Earlier, on Sunday, a North Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman told KCNA, "We will launch an ICBM any time from any location determined by the supreme leadership." The Kwangmyongsong long-range rocket which the North launched in February last year could be converted into an ICBM capable of striking the U.S. mainland, but it can only be launched from fixed launch pads and takes days to prepare and fuel. But the Defense Ministry spokesman here said the KN-08 or the improved KN-14 could be launched from a 16-wheeled mobile launch vehicle without being immediately noticed by South Korea and the U.S. U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter told NBC on Sunday the U.S. would shoot down a North Korean ICBM "if it were coming towards our territory or the territory of our friends and allies." . [ICBM]
• 'N.Korea can make 10 nuclear bombs'
  By Jun Ji-hye North Korea has increased its stockpile of weapons-grade plutonium to about 50 kilograms from 40 over the past two years despite pressure and sanctions from the international community, according to the 2016 Defense White Paper released Wednesday. Fifty-kilograms of weapons-grade plutonium are sufficient to manufacture about 10 nuclear warheads, considering that about 4 to 6 kilograms are necessary for each. The latest biennial document, released by the Ministry of National Defense, said the North has increased its plutonium stockpile through reprocessing spent fuel rods. At the same time, Pyongyang has achieved significant advances in its ability to miniaturize nuclear warheads and enrich uranium, the paper said without providing details. [Nuclear weapons] [Plutonium]
• US Navy Pushes Ahead With Plan to Build 12 New Nuclear Ballistic Missile Subs
  The U.S. Navy officially approved the start of detailed design and engineering work on its new class of SSBNs. By Franz-Stefan Gady January 07, The Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) program, formerly known as the Ohio-class Replacement Program, is officially entering the next stage in the long and drawn out Department of Defense acquisition process by passing a so-called Milestone B review on January 4, USNI News reports. That means U.S. shipbuilder General Dynamics Electric Boat can now commence detailed design and engineering work on what is slated to become the U.S. Navy’s priciest and at the same time deadliest ballistic missile submarine class in its history. The Milestone B review was originally scheduled for August 2016, but had to be pushed back due to price, design, and production readiness concerns by the Pentagon. [SLBM] [Nuclear submarines]
• DPRK says to launch inter-continental missile anytime
  Xinhua, January 9, 2017 The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) said Sunday that it will launch an inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) "anytime and anywhere" determined by the country's supreme headquarters. "The U.S. is wholly to blame for pushing the DPRK to have developed ICBM as it has desperately resorted to anachronistic policy hostile toward the DPRK to encroach upon its sovereignty and vital rights," the official KCNA news agency quoted a Foreign Ministry spokesman as saying. The unnamed spokesman said that Pyongyang's ICBM program is part of the efforts to bolster its self-defense capability so as to cope with ever growing nuclear war threat from the United States. [ICBM] [Deterrent] [Test]
• Surface Disturbances at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: Another Indicator of Nuclear Testing?
  By Frank Pabian and David Coblentz 06 January 2017 Abstract A review of available very high-resolution commercial satellite imagery (bracketing the time of North Korea’s most recent underground nuclear test on September 9, 2016 at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site) has led to the detection and identification of several minor surface disturbances on the southern flank of Mt. Mantap. These surface disturbances occur in the form of small landslides, either alone or together with small zones of disturbed bare rock that appear to have been vertically lofted (“spalled”) as a result of the most recent underground explosion. Typically, spall can be uniquely attributed to underground nuclear testing and is not a result of natural processes. However, given the time gap of up to three months between images (pre- and post-event), which was coincident with a period of heavy typhoon flooding in the area,[1] it is not possible to determine whether the small landslides were exclusively explosion induced, the consequence of heavy rainfall erosion or some combination of the two. [Test]
• North Korean Underground Facility: Probably Not a Ballistic Missile Silo
  By Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. 03 January 2017 A recent report by Voice of America provided an analytical assessment of a small North Korean installation located in North Pyongan Province near Kumchang-ri concluding that it is a possible ballistic missile silo. Based on an analysis of Google Earth imagery and a comparison with an installation with missile silos in Iran and several facilities in North Korea the assessment is well-reasoned and logically presented. However, an examination of historical satellite imagery and a comparison with known North Korean missile installations and operating practices indicates that the partially-underground installation is probably not a ballistic missile related facility. [Ballistic missile]
• Analysts: North Korea not bluffing on ICBM launch
  Isolated nation has achieved significant progress despite UN sanctions for nuclear tests and long-range rocket launches. North Korea worked through 2016 on developing components for an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), making the isolated nation's claim that it is close to a test-launch plausible, weapons experts say. Once fully developed, a North Korean ICBM could threaten the continental United States about 9,000km away. Pyongyang's state media regularly threatens the US with a nuclear strike, but before 2016 the North had been assumed to be a long way from being capable of doing so. "The bottom line is Pyongyang is much further along in their missile development than most people realise," said Melissa Hanham, a senior research associate at the US-based Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, California. Kim Jong-un says close to testing long-range missile North Korea has been testing rocket engines and heat-shields for an ICBM while developing the technology to guide a missile after re-entry into the atmosphere following a lift-off, the experts said on Monday. While Pyongyang is close to a test, it is likely to take some years to perfect the weapon. [Nuclear capability]
• In New Year’s address, Kim Jong-un says final preparations for ICBM testing have begun
  Posted on : Jan.2,2017 16:32 KST Kim’s remarks on inter-Korean relations contain no specific proposals; Kim also makes unusually self-reproachful remarks North Korean leader Kim Jong-un announced in a New Year’s address on Jan. 1 that final preparations had begun for testing of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Kim also sent the clear message that Pyongyang would continue working to develop nuclear weapons and other “self-defense capabilities.” Coming on the heels of an unprecedented two nuclear tests in 2016, the remarks suggest rough going ahead for the Korean Peninsula’s political situation in 2017. Nuclear weapons, missiles, and the military In a video broadcast on Korean Central Television (KCTV) that afternoon, Kim declared, “A historic transition was achieved last year in the strengthening of North Korea’s national defense capabilities, and our fatherland has risen to become an Eastern nuclear power and military power that no powerful enemy dares to touch.” While Kim omitted a reference to Pyongyang’s “two-track approach” to nuclear and economic development for a second straight year, he did emphasize that the North was already a “nuclear power.” [Address2017] [ICBM] [Overture]
• 'N. Korea SLBM with 1-ton nuclear warhead covers entire S. Korea'
  'N. Korea's SLBM with 1-ton nuclear warhead covers entire S. Korea By Jun Ji-hye North Korea's submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) is capable of reaching any target in South Korea if it is mounted with a 1-ton nuclear warhead, according to foreign missile experts. The claim was made in a report published in the December edition of Korea Observer, a scholarly journal published quarterly by the Institute of Korean Studies. In the report titled "North Korean Ballistic Missile Program," Theodore A. Postol, a professor emeritus at MIT, and Markus Schiller, an aerospace engineer at the Munich-based ST Analytics, said the North's SLBM, called KN-11, is believed to have a range of 600 kilometers or more if it is armed with a 1-ton nuclear warhead. This puts all of South Korea within range of the missile in theory. [SLBM] [Postol]
• [Breaking] N. Korea in final stage of developing ICBM: Kim Jong-un
  North Korean leader Kim Jong-eun delivers a national address on New Year's Day. / Yonhap By Ko Dong-hwan North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missile tests are in their final stage, leader Kim Jong-un said in a national address on January 1. Wearing a suit, Kim said North Korea "needs to develop more of its own kind of ‘juche' weapons," referring to the state's official political ideology meaning "national self-reliance." Kim said South Korea "should not take for granted the North trying to prevent the military clash between two Koreas from breaking out." He said that unless the South stopped conducting military drills in preparation for war, he would boost the North's military self-defense centered on nuclear weapons. He also said he wanted the two Koreas to be unified, saying the New Year "hopefully allows taking a step forward to unification." He also criticized other nations, including the U.S., for trying to deter unification. Kim said the massive nationwide vigils in South Korea demanding that President Park Geun-hye step down were "an explosion of people's anger at conservative administration." Kim mentioned Park's name for the first time in a public speech. [Kim Jong Un] [Address2017] [ICBM] [Deterrence] [Media]
• N. Korea’s leader hints of long-range missile test launch
  South Koreans watch a TV news program showing North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s New Year’s speech, at the Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea, Sunday, Jan. 1, 2017. North Korea’s development of banned long-range missiles is in “final stages,” the country’s leader Kim was quoted as saying in his New Year’s message. The letters read “New Year for Reunification.” (Ahn Young-joon/Associated Press) By Eric Talmadge?|?AP January 1 at 4:09 AM TOKYO — North Korean leader Kim Jong Un hinted Sunday that Pyongyang may ring in the new year with another bang — the test-launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile. In his annual New Year’s address, Kim said that after testing what the North claims was its first hydrogen bomb last year, preparations for launching an intercontinental ballistic missile have “reached the final stage” Kim did not explicitly say an ICBM test, which if successful would be a big step forward for the North, was imminent. But he has a birthday coming up on Jan. 8, and last year Pyongyang conducted a nuclear test on Jan. 6. Kim threatened in the address to boost his country’s military capabilities further unless the U.S. ends war games with rival South Korea. But he also said efforts must be made to defuse the possibility of another Korean war and stressed the importance of building the economy under a five-year plan announced in May. [ICBM] [Overture] [Detterence] [Media]

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