Satellite and Nuclear Issues
Includes Six Party Talks
2018
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Much material on this issue finds its way to the US and other pages, when the emphasis seems to be on state-to-state relations. The exception being the Six-Party Talks which are usually posted here.
for some key documents see 2011 page

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• December
• November
• October
• September
• August
• July
• June
• May
• April
• March
• February
• January

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DECEMBER 2018

• Australian Labor Party gives qualified support for the Ban Treaty
  Dear friends, In this update we report on US Congress and other parliamentary actions in response to U.S. President Trump's announcement of intent to withdraw from the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, and on the decision of the Australian Labor Party to give conditional support to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (Ban Treaty). Australian Labor Party gives qualified support for the Ban Treaty The Australian Labor Party (currently the main opposition party) adopted a motion at its national conference yesterday giving qualified support to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW - or Ban Treaty), an international agreement negotiated in 2017 by non-nuclear States, but opposed by the Australian government and all the nuclear armed and allied States. [Nuclear disarmament] [Australia] [ALP]
• Controversy over Barakah power plant construction fiasco continues
  Posted on : Dec.18,2018 17:12 KST Modified on : Dec.18,2018 17:12 KST Issue of voids in concrete walls also occurred during construction of Hanbit reactor The construction site of the Barakah nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates. (provided by KEPCO) The controversy over the allegedly shoddy construction of the second and third reactors being built by South Korea at the Barakah nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates is growing amid the failure of the government and Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO) to provide specifics about the size and number of concrete voids and the places where they were discovered. [Nuclear energy] [UAE]
• Cracks found in containment building of UAE nuclear power plant built by S. Korean companies
  Posted on : Dec.17,2018 16:52 KST Modified on : Dec.17,2018 16:52 KST Shoddy construction work likely to push back schedule and increase costs Christer Viktorsson, director general of the UAE’s Federal Authority for Nuclear Regulation (FANR), said that grease had been found on the wall of the third unit’s containment building during an interview with US trade journal Energy Intelligence on Nov. 21. There may be cracks in the containment building at the third unit at the Barakah nuclear power plant that South Korean companies are building in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The grease inserted into the concrete walls as a lubricant has seeped into voids on the outside of the wall. Shoddy construction work is likely to push back the schedule and increase costs. [Nuclear energy] [UAE] [SK]
• North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: Current Status and Future Inspections
  By: 38 North December 12, 2018 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Frank V. Pabian and Joel Wit. One task ahead for the United States and North Korea if current denuclearization negotiations continue will be to conduct an onsite inspection of the now shut-down Punggye-ri nuclear test site. That inspection will have limited utility—there are no guarantees that North Korea would not resume testing at Punggye-ri or other locations if the current thawing of the political atmosphere ends. But the successful conduct of such an inspection would serve to not only build confidence between the US and North Korea but also as an initial model for cooperation for future inspections to help verify agreements covering North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles. [Punggye-ri]
• Next-generation small South Korean satellite reaches designated orbit
  Posted on : Dec.4,2018 17:28 KST Modified on : Dec.4,2018 17:28 KST The first of South Korea’s next generation of small space-exploration satellites successfully reached its designated orbit on Dec. 4, the Ministry of Science and ICT (MSIT) announced. The satellite launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base in on Dec. 3, and the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), which developed the satellite, has announced that the satellite has established communications with ground bases 80 minutes after its launch. (provided by MSIT) [Satellite] [Double standards]

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NOVEMBER 2018

• N.Korean Nuclear Site 'Was No Longer Usable'
  By Choi Eun-kyung November 29, 2018 12:59 North Korea's destruction of its Punggye-ri nuclear test site came after such a severe underground collapse that the site was in any case no longer usable, a recent study suggests. The study published in the journal Seismological Research Letters claims that an aftershock observed after North Korea's last nuclear test in September last year was due to the collapse of a void as long as 80 m created after the explosion at Punggye-ri. The test itself caused an artificial 5.7 magnitude earthquake, and the aftershock registered 4.5 on the Richter scale, causing experts to suspect a major ground collapse. Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun on Wednesday said North Korea unveiled parts of demolition of the Punggye-ri nuclear test site to the media in May, but the new study shows that the site "may have been already unusable for further nuclear tests." [Punggye-ri]
• Space rocket engine burn time test meets target goal
  Posted : 2018-11-28 10:54 Updated : 2018-11-28 16:46 Korea's test-launch vehicle lifts off from Naro Space Center in Goheung, South Jeolla Province, Wednesday. Joint Press Corps Joint Press Corps The engine burn time of South Korea's locally developed space rocket met its target goal, the government said Wednesday. The test of the 75-ton engine was conducted using a single-stage rocket that was launched from the Naro Space Center in Goheung, South Jeolla Province, at 4:00 p.m. The Ministry of Science and ICT said the test-launch vehicle engine maintained combustion for 151 seconds with the rocket flying for 10 minutes after reaching a suborbital altitude of approximately 100 kilometers. The exact location of where the rocket splashed down has yet to be announced. The ministry is scheduled to make an official announcement at 5:00 p.m. The rocket engine, designed and developed by the Korea Aerospace Research Institute Province (KARI), will be used on the three-stage Korea Space Launch Vehicle-2 (KSLV-2) currently under development. [Engine test] [KSLV-II]
• IAEA calls on North Korea to re-admit nuclear inspectors
  Posted : 2018-11-23 09:16 Updated : 2018-11-23 16:45 The flag of the International Atomic Energy Agency flies in front of its headquarters in Vienna, May 28, 2015. Reuters The head of the U.N.'s atomic watchdog has called on North Korea to allow inspectors back in to monitor its nuclear program. Speaking at a board meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency Thursday, Director General Yukiya Amano noted that Pyongyang had in September talked about denuclearization measures including the ''permanent dismantlement of the nuclear facilities in Yongbyon'' _ a reactor where it produces plutonium. Amano said there has been activity observed at Yongbyon, but ''without access the agency cannot confirm the nature and purpose of these activities.'' At a news conference later Thursday, he said he couldn't elaborate on when exactly the activity was observed. [IAEA] [UNUS]
• North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center: 5 MWe Reactor Unlikely Operating
  By: 38 North November 16, 2018Satellite Imagery, WMD A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Frank V. Pabian, Jack Liu and Peter Makowsky. Recent commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center indicates that although a minor flow of water could be detected from the pre-existing cooling water outfall pipe of the 5 MWe reactor, such a low flow is more likely indicative of residual waste heat removal from past reactor operations than any new reactor operations. Dredging continues near the reactor’s secondary cooling system, and by November, that dredged material had blocked nearly all of the river channel serving the pump house. Minimal movements of vehicles and equipment have taken place around both the 5 MWe reactor and the Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR). Notably, between September 27 and November 2, new excavation had started along the road east of the 5 MWe reactor, the purpose of which is unclear. [Yongbyon]
• Korea to Test Space Rocket Engine
  By Lee Young-wan November 14, 2018 13:19 The first test flight of a homegrown space rocket engine will be conducted at the Naro Space Center in Goheung, South Jeolla Province later this month. The Ministry of Science and ICT on Tuesday said the test model will be launched on Nov. 28 unless unexpected problems occur, in which case there will be further launch windows between Nov. 29 and Dec. 4. The 25.8-m long test model has a 75-ton thrust engine, which will be used in the Korea Space Launch Vehicle-2 Nuri. It will fly for about 10 minutes before hitting international waters in the Pacific Ocean. The launch was originally planned for Oct. 25, but problems in the propellant pressurization system led to the postponement. The Korea Aerospace Research Institute is developing the KSLV-2 to put a 1.5-ton satellite into orbit and plans to launch it by 2021. [SLV]
• North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: Minor Cleanup Activity
  By: 38 North November 9, 2018 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Frank V. Pabian and Jack Liu. Recent commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Punggye-ri nuclear test site shows some partial site cleanup, possibly including reclamation and removal of wood from the buildings demolished last May as part of the site’s closure. Most of this activity has taken place within the Main Administrative Support Area, the Central Command Center compound and the adjacent security barracks area. The old access road leading to the original East Portal area (Tunnel #1, where the 2006 nuclear test was conducted), which has been abandoned since just after the 2006 test, remains blocked by landslides preventing vehicle access. Should outside inspections of Punggye-ri take place, access to that portal to verify its closure would likely be gained from the South Portal area (about 1,300 meters away). [Punggye-ri]
• North Korea’s Sohae Satellite Launching Station: Low Level Activity Continues
  By: 38 North November 8, 2018 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu, Peter Makowsky, and Irv Buck Commercial satellite imagery from October 31 indicates that North Korea has installed new equipment, possibly for ventilation, on the roof of the eastern-most fuel/oxidizer storage bunker at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station. Prior to May 26, the bunker had a smooth dark roof. While the new equipment seems to have been installed between June and July 2018, previous imagery until late October had insufficient detail to distinguish between partial roof demolition and new equipment installation. The recent imagery also shows no further dismantlement activity at the vertical engine test stand and launch pad since August. Components that were previously removed remain stacked on the ground at both locations. [Sohae] [Reciprocity]
• Ghosts of Hiroshima
  Charles Pellegrino October 27, 2018 Volume 16 | Issue 21 | Number 3 You could not make these landscapes up and have people believe it. Even as fiction, no one would believe it. That is why, for over sixty years, I kept what I saw to myself… until the day others [who] spoke about it, were called liars, [supposedly] because the atom bombs could not have happened that way. For people underneath an A-bomb to have become shadows on the wall, and charcoals, before they could fall to the ground, no one wanted to believe it. But it happened. Miyuki Broadwater, a child of Nagasaki Prologue: BEYOND THE SPECTRUM In 1948, a former OSS agent named Walter Lord—who had interrogated (or, from a certain point of view, “interviewed”) many of Japan’s surviving naval officers—was struggling to turn a series of non-job-related interviews into his first book: A Night to Remember. The book itself was defeating Walter. Although he now had enough material for a second book (fated to become the basis for a film titled, Tora! Tora! Tora!), he feared that neither book would ever be published. Walter had not yet found “the music of the words,” had not yet found his voice. About the spring of that same year, he came across a novel by another struggling writer, named Morgan Robertson, who in 1898 had published a science fiction story about a futuristic luxury Atlantic steamship—the largest floating object ever built by human hands, destined to make its acquaintance with hubris and an iceberg on a cold April night, during its first and last voyage. The novel was an obscure “penny dreadful” —which, commercially, had failed miserably. It was regarded in its day as a story-line so improbable and so contrived that no reader could be expected to suspend disbelief. As it turned out, scientific and historical reality eventually caught up with and exceeded science fiction. On a cold April night in 1912, the Royal Mail Steamship Titanic struck an iceberg during its maiden voyage, just like Morgan Robertson’s fictional ship. It struck on the starboard side, just as Robertson’s ship did. It was filled with some of the world’s richest and most famous people, just like Robertson’s ship. The science fiction ship was 800 feet long; Walter’s real-life Titanic was 882.5 feet long. Both ships were nearly 70,000 tons displacement with three large and remarkably powerful propellers, capable of accelerating each vessel above 22 knots. The crews of both ships were complacent about racing ahead at nearly full speed into the night toward an ice field they’d been warned lay directly ahead—because each ship was believed “unsinkable.” And stranger still, Walter Lord thought, that Morgan Robertson had named his science-fictional ship, the Titan. And it happened again. [Hiroshima]
• Report: N.Korea Readies Nuclear, Missile Sites for International Inspectors
  VOA News November 01, 2018 08:14 South Korea's spy agency has observed preparations by North Korea for international inspections at several of its nuclear and missile test sites, the Yonhap news agency said on Wednesday, citing a South Korean lawmaker. Kim Min-ki of the ruling Democratic Party told reporters the South's National Intelligence Service observed North Koreans "conducting preparation and intelligence activities that seem to be in preparation for foreign inspectors' visit" at Punggye-ri nuclear test site and the Sohae Satellite launching ground. The lawmaker added no major movements were seen at Yongbyon, the North's main nuclear complex. North Korea has stopped nuclear and missile tests in the past year, but it did not allow international inspections of its dismantling of Punggye-ri in May, drawing criticism that the action was merely for show and could be reversed. [Gestures] [US NK Negotiations]
• [Photo] NIS reports N. Korea preparing for outside inspections of nuclear facilities
  Posted on : Oct.31,2018 16:40 KST Modified on : Oct.31,2018 16:40 KST The South Korean National Intelligence Service (NIS) announced on Oct. 31 that North Korea is preparing for international experts to investigate their nuclear test site at Punggye Village. North Korean leader mentioned to US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Oct. 7 that he would be willing to invite a group of US experts to investigate the site. The above photo shows the demolition of Tunnel 4 at the Punggye Village test site on May 25. (photo pool) [Punggye-ri] [Gesture]

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OCTOBER 2018

• First private Chinese attempt to send rocket into space fails
  Beijing-based Landscape says ‘something abnormal happened’ in the third stage of its ZQ-1 rocket Reuters Sun 28 Oct 2018 05.06 GMT Last modified on Sun 28 Oct 2018 19.10 GMT A privately developed Chinese carrier rocket failed to reach orbit after lifting off from Jiuquan Satellite Launch Centre on Saturday, in a blow to the country’s nascent attempts by private companies to rival Elon Musk’s SpaceX. The three-stage rocket, Zhuque-1, was developed by Beijing-based Landspace. The company said in a microblog post after nominal first and second stages that the spacecraft failed to reach orbit as a result of an issue with the third stage. Chinese city 'plans to launch artificial moon to replace streetlights' Read more The company said that “cowling separation was normal but something abnormal happened after the second stage.” The statement on its Weibo social media account did not elaborate. Landspace was founded in 2015 and soon aimed to be the first Chinese private company to deliver a satellite into orbit. The company said it was the first private licensed company in China to launch carrier rockets. [SLV] [Privatisation] [China]
• US Eyes Adding Nuclear Cruise Missiles to Zumwalt Stealth Destroyers As Well As Submarines
  More vessels carrying these weapons could make it especially hard for opponents to quickly tell the difference between conventional and nuclear strikes. By Joseph Trevithick February 26, 2018 U.S. Air Force General John Hyten, head of U.S. Strategic Command, has suggested he’s interested in arming a variety of ships with a new nuclear-tipped cruise missile, including the stealthy Zumwalt-class destroyers, as well as guided missile submarines, or SSGNs, and attack subs. This only renews concerns about whether or not a potential opponent might then dangerously mistake a conventional missile barrage for the start of a nuclear exchange and the possibility that the weapons could make it more likely that the United States would launch a nuclear strike in general. According to a recent report by Military.com, Hyten made his comments in a speech and while taking subsequent questions during a gathering at the National Defense University's Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction in Washington, D.C. on Feb. 16, 2018. Earlier in February 2018, President Donald Trump’s Administration released a new Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) that called for development of nuclear sea-launched cruise missile (SLCM), as well as modifying some existing Trident D-5 submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) with lower yield nuclear warheads, both ostensibly to offer a “flexible” response to an adversaries own “limited” nuclear strikes. [SLCM] [Military balance] [Nuclear weapons] [Cruise missiles]
• North Korea’s Sohae Satellite Launching Station: No New Dismantlement Activity
  By: 38 North October 4, 2018Satellite Imagery, WMD A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu and Peter Makowsky. Recent commercial satellite imagery of the Sohae Satellite Launching Station (“Tongchang-ri”), North Korea’s main space launch facility, indicates that despite dismantlement pledges formalized in the recent Pyongyang Declaration, no additional activity has been observed at either the vertical engine test stand or the launch pad since August 3. Based on available information, the lack of activity could be for a number of reasons—for example, North Korea may be waiting to arrange a visit of international observers or for the results of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s upcoming visit—and should not be interpreted as meaning that Pyongyang will not follow through on its pledge. [Sohae]
• North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center: Quiet After the Pyongyang Summit
  By: 38 North October 5, 2018 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Frank V. Pabian and Jack Liu. Recent commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center indicates no significant changes in the fissile material production areas since our last report. Dredging activities near the 5 MWe reactor’s secondary cooling system continue, and minimal movements of vehicles and equipment have taken place near the 5 MWe reactor and Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR). Additionally, harvest related activities, such as drying and aggregating various crops that are grown onsite, have increased throughout the Yongbyon complex. During the recent summit, North Korea expressed in the joint declaration, “‘the will to continue taking further steps like permanent dismantlement’ of its main Yongbyon nuclear facility, but only if the United States takes ‘corresponding steps’ that are based on Trump’s agreement with Kim at their June summit.” [Yongbyon] [Conditionality]
• North Korea’s Sohae Satellite Launching Station: Activity at a Launch Pad Fuel/Oxidizer Bunker
  By: 38 North October 10, 2018 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu, Frank V. Pabian and Peter Makowsky A review of commercial satellite imagery of the Sohae Satellite Launching Station beginning in spring and running through fall 2018 reveals activity beyond the previously reported dismantlement steps taken at the launch pad and vertical engine test stand. Specifically, the North Koreans appear to have also altered the original roof of the fuel/oxidizer structure/bunker at the launch pad. The limited image resolution, however, precludes determining whether this activity is just a structural modification or an additional step towards implementing Pyongyang’s pledge to dismantle the Sohae facility. [Sohae] [Intelligence]

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SEPTEMBER 2018

• Shelter Recently Dismantled at March 16 Factory
  By: 38 North September 12, 2018 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. Commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s March 16 [Truck] Factory[1] indicates that over the past eight months, a shelter has been torn down, rebuilt and then dismantled again. The exact nature of this activity is unknown, however, it is probable that it is related to the North’s ballistic missile program for several reasons:
• N.Korea's Missile Assembly Facility Dismantled
  By Kim Myong-song September 10, 2018 10:46 North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missile assembly facility in Pyongsong, South Pyongan Province seems to have been dismantled completely, Voice of America reported last week. A satellite image taken on Aug. 17 (bottom) shows North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missile assembly facility in Pyongsong, South Pyongan Province, while in another image (top) from Sept. 5 the facility is no longer seen. /Yonhap High-resolution civilian satellite imagery from Sept. 1 shows that there remains only what looks like a roll of cloth but no building or building materials where the facility used to stand. Planet Labs' satellite imagery of the same location shows no shadow of high-rise buildings. But at the same time North Korean ports that handle coal shipments, which are banned under UN Security Council, are busy again. VOA's analysis of a month worth of satellite images shot by Planet Labs shows that the number of ships carrying coal arriving at and leaving Nampo increased in July and August. Similar moves were detected in Songrim, South Hwanghae Province and in Wonsan, Kangwon Province. That suggests the regime is increasingly busy with illegal coal exports. [Singapore summit] [Gesture]
• [Photo] Preparations for new Korean rocket launch next month
  Posted on : Sep.7,2018 15:46 KST Modified on : Sep.7,2018 15:46 KST The Korea Space Launch Vehicle-II (KSLV-II), is South Korea’s second carrier rocket, developed entirely by the Korea Aerospace Research Institute (KARI). A test launch for the KSLV-II is set to be conducted sometime in late October. Although the official launch is set for 2021, experts say that test launches are necessary because of South Korea’s limited experience in developing aerospace rocket engines. The test launch will take place in Goheung County, South Jeolla Province. The KSLV-II’s predecessor, the KSLV-I, which was made by combing Russian technology, was successfully launched in January of 2013. (photo by Lee Keun-young, staff reporter) [SLV] [KSLV-II]
• Update on Yongbyon: More Dredging Around the Reactor Cooling System; Flooding Tests the Reservoir Dam’s Integrity
  By: 38 North September 7, 2018Satellite Imagery A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Frank V. Pabian, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. and Jack Liu. Commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center from August 27 shows that dredging work continues around the probable new secondary cooling system for the 5 MWe reactor. Most notably, some of the dredged-up material was blocking about half of the river channel that serves the new pump house, indicating that the modified cooling system is likely inoperative. The purpose of the continued dredging remains unclear at this time. [Yongbyon]
• South Korea unveils space rocket engine for test-launch
  Posted : 2018-09-06 17:02 Updated : 2018-09-06 17:35 The Korea Aerospace Research Institute unveiled Thursday a test-model of booster engine for the Korea Space Launch Vehicle-2 at Naro Space Center in Goheung, South Jeolla Province. Hankook Ilbo South Korea's aerospace institute showcased its locally developed booster engine on Thursday, part of a long-term effort to produce the Korea Space Launch Vehicle-2 (KSLV-2), a three-stage indigenous rocket. The rocket, carrying a locally made 75-ton engine, is set to be launched on Oct. 25 from the Naro Space Center in Goheung, South Jeolla Province, the Korea Aerospace Research Institute (KARI) said. [SLV] [KSLV-2]

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AUGUST 2018

• Update on North Korea’s Sohae Satellite Launching Station
  By: 38 North August 22, 2018 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., Frank V. Pabian and Jack Liu. Commercial satellite imagery from August 16 of the Sohae Satellite Launching Station, North Korea’s only operational space launch facility, indicates no significant dismantlement activity has taken place at either the engine test stand or the launch pad since August 3. At the vertical engine test stand, while significant progress in tearing down the facility was made from July to early August, no new dismantlement activity is apparent since August 3. The components previously removed remain stacked on the ground. [Sohae]
• North Korea’s Sinpo South Shipyard: Low Level Activity Continues
  By: 38 North August 16, 2018 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates a low level of activity at North Korea’s Sinpo South Shipyard, where North Korea’s only experimental ballistic missile submarine (SSBA) is berthed. Movement of parts and equipment consistent with a shipbuilding campaign first observed last year appear to be ongoing. However, there is no conclusive evidence that a new submarine is being built or if so, what type of ship is under construction. Of the North Korean shipyards capable of building the nation’s first operational ballistic missile submarine (SSB)—to supersede its existing SINPO-class SSBA—the Sinpo South Shipyard remains the most probable of six locations. The significant modernization and expansion of this facility over the past four years underscores its importance to the North’s submarine-launched ballistic missile program. Additionally, imagery indicates that dredging is taking place in the secure boat basin. The purpose of this activity is unclear but could include removing normal silt buildup, creating more clearance for the SINPO-class submarine to partially submerge to test repairs, or creating deeper anchorage for a larger submarine or vessel. [SLBM] [Intelligence]
• Nuclear abolition: Protesters confront Livermore Lab on Hiroshima anniversary
  August 10, 2018 10:36 AM CDT By Marilyn Bechtel Nuclear abolition: Protesters confront Livermore Lab on Hiroshima anniversary Anti-nuclear demonstrators stage a die-in outside Livermore Lab as part of their commemoration of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. | Marilyn Bechtel / PW LIVERMORE, Calif.—Hundreds gathered outside the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory here Aug. 6, to mark the 73rd anniversary of the devastating U.S. nuclear bombing of the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and to pledge a greatly stepped-up fight to abolish nuclear weapons worldwide. Peace advocates see global nuclear disarmament as an ever more urgent issue now, in the face of the Trump administration’s Nuclear Posture Review, released last February. Rally speakers brought the demonstration’s call to action—No Nukes! No Walls! No Wars! No Warming!—to life as they linked today’s urgent struggles and examined decades of historical context. Keynote speaker Daniel Ellsberg, the whistleblower whose 1971 release of the Pentagon Papers helped speed the end of the Vietnam War, highlighted the concept of “time, time enough, and too late” in relation both to climate change and nuclear apocalypse. [Hiroshima] [Nuclear disarmament]
• North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center: Work Continues on 5 MWe Reactor’s Cooling System
  By: 38 North August 9, 2018 Commercial satellite imagery from July 31 of North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center indicates ongoing work on the secondary cooling system for the 5 MWe reactor. A low-flow discharge is observed coming from the pre-existing cooling water outfall pipe, indicating the reactor is most likely not operating but that residual heat from earlier reactor operations is being dumped. Imagery also indicates continued vehicular traffic in and around the 5 MWe reactor and Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR), although there are no observable signs the ELWR has started operations. Activity around the Radiochemical Laboratory, where plutonium reprocessing is conducted, remains at low levels. Imagery is of insufficient resolution to confirm whether a small plume is coming from the ventilation building’s ventilation stack. [Yongbyon]
• U.S. Expert Pinpoints N.Korea's Uranium Facility
  By Cho Yi-jun, Kim Myong-song August 01, 2018 13:24 A U.S. expert believes he has pinpointed North Korea's main secret uranium-enrichment facility in a different part of the country than previously reported. David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security told Voice of America on Monday that the facility is not in the North's main Yongbyon nuclear facility but in a secret location a long way from Pyongyang. Albright added that he believes Kangsong is the only secret facility the North is operating. He came to the assessment based on analysis of accounts of North Korean defectors who were in charge of assembling the uranium-enrichment centrifuges. He was contradicting recent information from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies that identified a uranium-enrichment facility called Kangson in Nampo, near Pyongyang, which he said "is too small" and has too much truck traffic. He said there are several places in North Korea called Kangsong, a similar name. [Intelligence] [Uranium]
• Minuteman III Missile Test Launch from Vandenberg AFB Ends in Failure
  By Janene Scully, Noozhawk North County Editor | @JaneneScully | July 31, 2018 | 7:29 a.m. Range safety crew members at Vandenberg Air Force Base terminated the flight of an unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile after it launched early Tuesday morning. Air Force Global Strike Command representatives said crews sent the self-destruct command at 4:42 a.m. while the missile flew over the Pacific Ocean. [Missile test] [ICBM] [Double standards]

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JULY 2018

• Minuteman III Missile Test to Launch from Vandenberg Early Tuesday Morning
  Published by NAPF Press Office at July 30, 2018 The U.S. Air Force tested this Minuteman III Intercontinental Ballistic Missile on February 20, 2016. Photo | U.S. Department of Defense Share For Immediate Release Contact: Sandy Jones: (805) 965-3443; sjones@napf.org Rick Wayman: (805) 696-5159; rwayman@napf.org Minuteman III Missile Test to Launch from Vandenberg Early Tuesday Morning Less than two months ago, U.S. and North Korea held a summit, jointly committing to North Korea’s denuclearization. What kind of message does missile test send? Vandenberg–The U.S. is scheduled to test a Minuteman III Intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) carrying a mock nuclear warhead early Tuesday morning between 12:01 a.m. and 6:01 a.m. from Vandenberg Air Force Base near Lompoc, California. This particular test is just a month-and-half after the high-stakes summit between the U.S. and North Korea, in which Trump and Kim Jong-un signed a vaguely-worded statement, agreeing to “work toward complete denuclearization on the Korean peninsula.” What kind of message is the U.S. sending to North Korea with this missile test? Rick Wayman, Deputy Director of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, noted, “This is the same class of missiles for which the U.S. has been highly critical of the North Koreans for developing and testing. How can the United States demand North Korea’s good faith on denuclearization while the U.S. continues its own ICBM testing? The hypocrisy is nothing new, but what stands out with this test is the potential for blowing up the peace process underway with North Korea.” [Missile test] [Double standards] [Singapore summit]
• N.Korean Propaganda Machine Stresses Importance of Nukes
  By Lee Yong-soo July 26, 2018 12:02 The North Korean regime is indoctrinating provincial Workers Party officials to the effect that giving up nuclear weapons means "death," Radio Free Asia reported Wednesday. RFA quoted a source in North Hamgyong Province as saying, "In early July there was a meeting of high-ranking party officials from provincial organizations, party secretaries, and managers from business firms... to deliver Central Committee doctrines." "The last speaker who ended the six-hour meeting emphasized that 'nuclear weapons are a precious legacy from the late leaders' and 'without them there is death,'" the source added. That suggests the regime has no intention of giving up all its nuclear weapons and is aiming at best for a reduction. Meanwhile, North Korea continues to pressure the U.S. to sign a peace treaty formally ending the Korean War. The official Rodong Sinmun daily said, "The U.S. bears the responsibility of announcing an end to the war." But Washington wants to see progress in denuclearization first. Seoul also hopes for a peace treaty and enshrined the goal in the joint declaration by the leaders of the two Koreas in April. A Cheong Wa Dae official told reporters on Wednesday, "We hope that an end to the war could be announced in the near future if possible. We are continuing talks, with the format and timing all open for discussion." In signs that the denuclearization process has not completely stalled, Chinese nuclear negotiator Kong Xuanyou arrived in Pyongyang on Wednesday, according to Japan's Kyodo News. He is expected to meet with North Korean Foreign Ministry officials. [Deterrent] [Peace declaration]
• President Moon confirms shutdown of rocket test stand in Tongchang Village
  Posted on : Jul.26,2018 18:24 KST Modified on : Jul.26,2018 18:24 KST Describes move as “good sign for North Korea’s denuclearization” South Korean President Moon Jae-in enters the Blue House’s inauguration ceremony for the newly appointed US Ambassador to South Korea, Harry Harris, on July 25. (Blue House photo pool) South Korean President Moon Jae-in confirmed on July 25 that North Korea has begun work to dismantle its West Sea satellite launch facilities in the village of Tongchang in Cholson County, North Pyongan Province. President Moon described the move as a “good sign for North Korea’s denuclearization.” President Moon’s remarks were made as he was being given a letter of credence from US President Donald Trump by newly appointed US ambassador to South Korea Harry Harris at the Blue House main building that day, Blue House spokesperson Kim Eui-kyum reported. “South Korean and US intelligence authorities have determined that after previously dismantling its nuclear test site, North Korea is now dismantling its rocket engine test stand and missile launch site,” President Moon was also quoted as saying. [Missile] [Gesture] [US NK Negotiations] [Sohae]
• Trump praises North Korea’s shutdown of West Sea Satellite Launching Station
  Posted on : Jul.26,2018 18:28 KST Modified on : Jul.26,2018 18:28 KST Trump praises North Korea’s shutdown of West Sea Satellite Launching Station Additional evidence points to shutdown of ICBM assembly facility near Pyongyang The US administration under President Donald Trump was apparently delighted by the news that North Korea has begun dismantling its Sohae (West Sea) Satellite Launching Station, in Tongchang Village, North Pyongan Province. This could bring fresh momentum to the stalled deliberations on follow-up measures to the North Korea-US summit. “New images, just today, show that North Korea has begun the process of dismantling a key missile site. And we appreciate that,” Trump said during a speech at the Veterans of Foreign Wars of the United States National Convention, held in Kansas City on July 24. [Missile] [Gesture] [US NK Negotiations] [Sohae]
• Suspected Uranium Enrichment Site Spotted in N.Korea
  By Kim Jin-myung July 16, 2018 12:24 U.S. current affairs magazine the Diplomat on Friday published satellite photos of a suspected covert uranium-enrichment site in North Korea. Researchers led by Jeffrey Lewis at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies analyzed satellite photos of the site taken since 2001. A U.S. government source "confirmed... that the discovered site corresponded to the covert enrichment site referred to by the U.S. intelligence community as Kangson," the magazine said. It added U.S. intelligence officials detected another secret uranium-enrichment facility in the North. Uranium-enrichment facilities are much easier to conceal than the reactors that reprocess plutonium. The Washington Post reported on June 30 that U.S. intelligence officials are aware of the Kangson facility, which they believe produces twice as much weapons-grade uranium as the well-known nuclear facility at Yongbyon. [Singapore summit] [Pushback] [Uranium]
• North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Research Center: Testing of Reactor Cooling Systems; Construction of Two New Non-Industrial Buildings
  By: 38 North July 6, 2018 Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates that North Korea has finished work on the secondary cooling system for the 5 MWe reactor. It is unclear whether the detection of water flowing from the pump house indicates that the system is being tested or that the reactor is beginning operations.[1] [Yongbyon]
• N.Korea Suspected of Expanding Missile Plant
  By Yu Yong-weon July 03, 2018 10:32 North Korea is suspected of expanding a major missile manufacturing facility even as it pursues dialogue with the U.S., according to the Wall Street Journal on Sunday. Based on recent satellite imagery from Planet Labs, the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in the U.S. discovered that the North was completing a major expansion of a missile plant in Hamhung, South Hamgyong Province in the run-up to the U.S.-North Korea summit in Singapore last month, the daily reported. No new building was spotted at the plant until April, when the inter-Korean summit was held, but it seems most of the construction work was done in May and June, researchers Jeffrey Lewis and David Schmerler said. [Singapore summit] [WSJ] [Pushback]

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JUNE 2018

• Satellite images show North Korea upgrading nuclear research facility: report
  By Avery Anapol - 06/26/18 11:16 PM EDT Satellite images from last week show that North Korea is making numerous improvements to the infrastructure at a nuclear research facility, according to a new study. The images, obtained by North Korea analysis outlet 38 North, come just weeks after President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed an agreement that called for a denuclearized Korean Peninsula. ADVERTISEMENT The satellite photos indicate that North Korea is quickly progressing on several adjustments to the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center. The improvements include a new cooling water pump house, multiple new buildings, completed construction on a cooling water reservoir and an apparently active radiochemical laboratory. It is unclear whether the reactor is still in operation, the report said. 38 North notes that North Korean nuclear officials are expected to proceed with “business as usual” until Kim orders official changes to procedure. The agreement between Trump and Kim, signed at the historic summit in Singapore earlier this month, commits the U.S. to “security guarantees” in exchange for a denuclearized Korean Peninsula. Critics said that the deal was unspecific and gave too much to North Korea without securing anything for the U.S. in return. Ahead of the meeting between the two leaders, North Korea claimed to have destroyed its Punggye-ri nuclear testing site. [Yongbyon] [Singapore summit] [Media] [Pushback]
• No Apparent Dismantlement Activities at Sohae Engine Test Site as of June 12
  By: 38 North June 21, 2018 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. Commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Sohae Satellite Launching Station from June 12 shows no apparent activity related to dismantlement of its rocket engine test stand. This stand has been suggested as the probable location US President Trump was referring to in his post-Singapore Summit statements that North Korea is “destroying their engine site. They’re blowing it up.” [Rocket engine]
• Commentary: Five questions on North Korea and the science of denuclearization
  Arlene Getz Donald Trump announced after Tuesday’s Singapore summit with Kim Jong Un that the North Korean leader had signed an “unwavering commitment to complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.” However, the U.S. president warned that “scientifically, [denuclearization] takes a long time.” U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un at the Capella Hotel on Sentosa island in Singapore June 12, 2018. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst John Mecklin, editor of the “Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists,” spoke with Reuters’ Arlene Getz about the science of the process and other implications of the Trump-Kim agreement. [Singapore summit] [Denuclearisation]
• More on North Korea’s Missile Test Sites
  By: 38 North June 15, 2018 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. Following up on 38 North’s recent assessment concluding that there were no changes to the Sohae (Tongchang-ri) Satellite Launch Facility, further analysis shows that there have been no alterations or activity akin to dismantlement to any of the six known launch and engine test facilities and two ejection test stands, including: [Missile]
• An End to Nuclear Testing in North Korea? The Role for Technology and Cooperation
  Thursday, June 14, 2018 2:30 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Choate Conference Room 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036 RSVP by email to diplomacy@aaas.org by Wednesday, June 13 The recent negotiations between the United States and North Korea on nuclear disarmament have placed renewed focus on the challenges of verification of nuclear test sites and denuclearization. Organizations like the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization employ science-based techniques and technologies to detect nuclear testing[1] that some have suggested could have applications to verify the dismantlement of a nuclear test site. In the face of current threats to global security, national and international organizations have their own roles to play to address these global challenges through cooperation and science and technology can help pave the way for greater security in the future. Opening Remarks Dr. Lassina Zerbo, Executive Secretary of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization Discussion Mr. Daryl G. Kimball, Executive Director, Arms Control Association (Moderator) Ambassador Laura Kennedy, Former Ambassador to the Conference on Disarmament and Former Charge of the US Mission to International Organizations in Vienna Mr. Jon Wolfsthal, Nonresident Scholar, Nuclear Policy Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; former senior director for arms control and nonproliferation at the National Security Council Ms. Alexandra Bell, Senior Policy Director, Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Including Welcome Remarks Dr. Mahlet N. Mesfin, Deputy Director, Center for Science Diplomacy, American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) RSVP by email to diplomacy@aaas.org by Wednesday, June 13 [1] National Research Council. (2012) The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty: Technical Issues for the United States. Washington, DC: National Academies Press. Posted: June 14, 2018 [Nuclear test] [Moratorium18] [Unilateral]
• No Indications of Missile Test Stand Dismantlement Yet at Sohae Satellite Launch Facility
  By: 38 North June 14, 2018 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. During his post summit press conference on June 12, President Trump first stated that, “Chairman Kim has told me that North Korea is already destroying a major missile engine testing site,” without specifically identifying which site. However, a Chosun Ilbo report this morning states that the site Kim promised to destroy is a large-scale facility in Tongchang-ri (Sohae Satellite Launching Station), North Pyongan Province.” While this has yet to be confirmed, 38 North has conducted a survey of the North Korea’s rocket and missile launch and engine test facilities using recent high-resolution satellite imagery and has not yet identified any activity associated with the dismantlement of facilities at Sohae or any other test sites in North Korea. 38 North will continue to monitor Sohae and the other known test facilities for any activity. [Missile test] [Singapore summit]
• N.Korea to Destroy Tongchang-ri Missile Test Site
  By Lim Min-hyuk June 14, 2018 13:14 The missile test site North Korean leader Kim Jong-un promised U.S. President Donald Trump to destroy is a large-scale facility in Tongchang-ri, North Pyongan Province. The regime conducted a vital test of an engine for intercontinental ballistic missiles there last year. "Kim promised Trump during their summit on Tuesday to dismantle this facility," a diplomatic source said. He said that Kim presented the offer as a kind of surprise card to Trump, who is known to like showy outcomes. Trump immediately told the press about it after the summit. "It seems that Trump is giving priority to deterring the North from developing ICBM capabilities that threaten the U.S. mainland over the complete, verifiable and irreversible dismantlement of nuclear weapons," a pundit said. "It's possible that Kim Jong-un, who is well aware of this, told Trump about his plan to dismantle the Tongchang-ri facility to make the U.S. president trust him." The North conducted a combustion test for a new high-powered liquid-fuel engine at Tongchang-ri on March 18 last year and succeeded in test-launching a Hwasong-14 ICBM with that engine four months later. The Hwasong-14 reportedly has a range of 10,000 km, placing the western U.S. mainland within reach. Trump reportedly only started taking an interest in the North Korean nuclear issue after the successful test-launch of the Hwasong-14. "Kim Jong-un must have won a number of major concessions from Trump in other sectors in return for destroying such a major facility,'" the diplomatic source said. [Missile test] [Engine] [Singapore summit]
• New Contractors Selected For Expanded Nuclear Weapons Production at Los Alamos
  Santa Fe, NM – Today the Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) announced its choice for the new management and operating contract for the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The new contractor, Triad National Security, LLC, is a limited liability company consisting of the Battelle Memorial Institute, the University of California and Texas A&M University. All three are non-profits, and it is unclear how this will affect New Mexico gross receipts taxes. Battelle claims to be the world’s largest non-profit technology research and development organization, and manages a number of labs including the Lawrence Livermore and Idaho National Laboratories. Texas A&M was founded in 1876 as the state’s first public institution of higher learning and has the largest nuclear engineering program in the country. DOE Secretary Rick Perry is an avid A&M alumnus. The new contract includes a five-year base time with five one-year options, for a total of 10 years if all options are exercised. The estimated value of the contract is $2.5 billion annually. [Nuclear weapons] [Double standards]
• Pentagon Developing AI to Track N.Korean Missiles
  By Yu Yong-weon June 07, 2018 11:10 The U.S. Defense Department is developing an AI program that can anticipate, detect and track launches of North Korea's and other countries' nuclear-tipped missiles, Reuters reported Tuesday. The Pentagon is testing an early-type AI-driven tracking system with the purpose of finding easy-to-hide mobile missile launchers. The project also "includes a pilot project focused on North Korea," it said quoting officials. U.S. analysts rely on information collected from reconnaissance satellites that are capable of identifying an object 5 cm in diameter on the ground from the altitude of hundreds of kilometers above the planet. But they often fail to detect signs of missile launches in advance if the North Korean regime got a head start by launching missiles from mobile launchers that can be swiftly moved while the satellites are on the other side of the globe. "If the research is successful, such computer systems would be able to think for themselves, scouring huge amounts of data, including satellite imagery, with a speed and accuracy beyond the capability of humans, to look for signs of preparations for a missile launch," Reuters said. That will buy valuable time to destroy enemy missiles in advance or intercept them after they are launched. "Budget documents... noted plans to expand the focus of the mobile missile launcher program to 'the remainder of the (Pentagon) 4+1 problem sets.' The Pentagon typically uses the 4+1 terminology to refer to China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and terrorist groups," it added. [AI] [Missiles]
• IAEA could start inspections of North Korea nuclear shutdown within weeks of agreement
  Posted on : Jun.6,2018 15:43 KST Modified on : Jun.6,2018 15:43 KST Director general Yuikya Amano reaffirms agency’s role in “verifying the DPRK’s nuclear program” The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said it could begin inspections of North Korea’s nuclear shutdown within a matter of weeks once the relevant countries reach an agreement. Speaking at an IAEA board of governors’ meeting in Vienna on June 4, director general Yukiya Amano said, “The Agency is closely following developments [including the North Korea-US summit discussion process] related to the nuclear program of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.” “We continue to enhance our readiness to play an essential role in verifying the DPRK’s nuclear program if a political agreement [to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue] is reached among countries concerned,” he added. Amano went on to say that the “DPRK Team in the Safeguards Department [. . .] formed last year [. . .] [has] intensified [its] efforts to ensure that the Agency will be ready to promptly undertake any activities that we may be requested to conduct.” “We would be able to resume our verification activities at short notice, within weeks, not months,” he added. [IAEA] [NK deal]
• North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Research Center; Possible Preparation for Reprocessing Campaign in Early May?
  By: 38 North May 30, 2018 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Frank V. Pabian, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. and Jack Liu. Commercial satellite imagery of the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center from May 6 indicates activity around the Radiochemical Laboratory’s Thermal Plant that could be early signs of a possible reprocessing campaign. However, it remains unclear if that is the case since there is no sign of the specialized railcars that are usually associated with this process [Yongbyon]

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MAY 2018

• Security troops on U.S. nuclear missile base took LSD, records show
  Security troops on U.S. nuclear missile base took LSD, records show Air Force records obtained by The Associated Press show that service members entrusted with guarding nuclear missiles bought, distributed and used the hallucinogen LSD and other mind-altering illegal drugs. by Associated Press / May.25.2018 / 2:29 AM ET / Updated 2:57 AM ET Three types of missiles flank the main gate of F.E. Warren Air Force Base in Wyoming. Three types of missiles flank the main gate of F.E. Warren Air Force Base in Wyoming.Robert W. Black / AP file WASHINGTON — One airman said he felt paranoia. Another marveled at the vibrant colors. A third admitted, "I absolutely just loved altering my mind." Meet service members entrusted with guarding nuclear missiles that are among the most powerful in America's arsenal. Air Force records obtained by The Associated Press show they bought, distributed and used the hallucinogen LSD and other mind-altering illegal drugs as part of a ring that operated undetected for months on a highly secure military base in Wyoming. After investigators closed in, one airman deserted to Mexico. "Although this sounds like something from a movie, it isn't," said Capt. Charles Grimsley, the lead prosecutor of one of several courts martial. A slipup on social media by one airman enabled investigators to crack the drug ring at F.E. Warren Air Force Base in March 2016, details of which are reported here for the first time. Fourteen airmen were disciplined. Six of them were convicted in courts martial of LSD use or distribution or both. [US military] [Drugs] [Nuclear weapons]
• S.Korean Reporters Get to Cover Nuke Site Shutdown After All
  By Ahn Jun-yong May 23, 2018 11:22 North Korea at the 11th hours permitted South Korean reporters to cover the dismantling of its nuclear test site in Punggye-ri from Wednesday to Friday. The North in a fit of pique last week booted them off the roster of invited foreign reporters and refused to give them their visas. On May 12, Pyongyang invited hand-picked reporters from five countries -- South Korea, the U.S., the U.K., China, and Russia -- to cover the event, but changed its mind over the South Koreans amid fresh cross-border bickering. The South Korean reporters, who had already been picked from media outlets not overly critical of the regime, were reduced to cooling their heels in Beijing. Other pre-selected reporters who were given their visas include staff from CNN and CBS from the U.S., Sky News and APTN of the U.K., CCTV and Xinhua from China, and RT and RIA Novosti of Russia. They took off on an Air Koryo flight from Beijing Capital International Airport on Tuesday morning bound for Wonsan in North Korea, the nearest airport to Punngye-ri. On arrival, the visiting reporters unpacked at their hotel and on Wednesday they are taken to Punggye-ri to watch the dismantling of the site. Their every move is watched by North Korean minders, and have to wait until they get back to Wonsan to broadcast their footage. They will reach the site after a grueling 12 hour trip by train, bus and on foot. The eight South Korean reporters hung on in Beijing until late Tuesday night in case the North changed its mind but then returned to Seoul. After the all-clear early Wednesday morning, they prepared to catch a lunchtime flight to Wonsan chartered by the South Korean government. The initial snub seemed to be just a shot before the bow because the North was peeved that South Korea let a prominent defector hold a widely publicized book launch in the National Assembly. It relented just as South Korean President Moon Jae-in tried to smooth ruffled U.S. feathers over the North's recent more assertive rhetoric. [Punggye-ri] [NK SK policy] [Media]
• South Korean reporters on way to North Korea's nuke test site [PHOTOS]
  Posted : 2018-05-23 09:40 Updated : 2018-05-23 16:12 South Korean journalists board a plane at Seoul Airport in Seongnam, Gyeonggi Province, Wednesday. The plane will carry them directly to North Korea's eastern city of Wonsan through the South-North direct flight route. / Press Pool South Korean journalists on the plane / Press Pool Eight South Korean journalists arrived in North Korea on Wednesday by government plane to cover the dismantlement of its nuclear test facilities expected later this week. The reporters and television crews joined the other journalists from the United States, China, Russia and Britain in Wonsan, as they wait for a special train to the Punggye-ri test site in the northeastern mountainous area. The media visitors from the four countries flew in to the North's eastern coastal city Tuesday from Beijing. It remains uncertain when the train will depart for the nuclear-testing site in Kilju, North Hamgyong Province. The distance between Wonsan and the Jaedok Station, adjacent to the venue, is known to be about 416 kilometers. Given the North's railway conditions, it will likely run at a speed of about 35 kph, according to observers here. It means a 12-hour train journey for the international journalists. Then, they are expected to use vehicles to reach the destination, approximately 21 km away from the station. South Korea sent a government VCN-235 transport aircraft from a military airport just south of Seoul to Wonsan carrying the pool reporters -- four from a newswire and four from a broadcaster. [Punggye-ri]
• North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: Viewing Areas Identified and Preparations for Closure Continue
  By: 38 North May 22, 2018 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Frank V. Pabian, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. and Jack Liu Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates additional preparations for the announced closure of North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site that could take place in the next few days, depending on weather. The most notable development is the near completion of a probable observation platform/viewing stand to allow journalists to safely view the explosive closure of the North and West Portals (a view of the South Portal from that position might be blocked by trees). Additional improvements were also made to the road and pathway leading up to that probable observation platform. A separate, less elaborate observation position has been placed on a hillside directly across the valley from the South Portal, providing a clear view of that area, particularly after the recent clearing of some trees in that area as well. [Punggye-ri] [Moratorium18]
• N.Korea on Track to Dismantle Nuke Test Site Despite Antics
  By Lee Yong-soo, Ahn Jun-yong May 21, 2018 09:33 North Korea continues to dismantle its nuclear test site in Punggye-ri despite warnings to South Korea and the U.S. that it could call off negotiations. The North at the same time demands that the U.S. lower the bar for denuclearization and accuses it of provoking hostilities with joint aerial exercises with South Korea. On Saturday, the North demanded that South Korea return a group of restaurant workers who defected from China in 2016 in an operation Pyongyang has denounced as an "abduction." North Korea has been demanding their return since 2016, but the demand has recently been fueled by a tendentious program on a cable channel here which gave the false impression that the women want to go home. [Punggye-ri] [Election defection]
• North Korea charges $10,000 per reporter to cover Punggye-ri nuclear site blowup
  Posted : 2018-05-21 14:28 Updated : 2018-05-21 15:45 South Korean reporters at Incheon International Airport, Monday. / Yonhap By Park Si-soo North Korea is demanding that each foreign reporter pay $10,000 for a visa to cover the planned dismantlement of a nuclear test site in Punggye-ri, Seoul government officials said Monday. South Korean reporters were exempt, the officials said. But people familiar with the situation said the rule could be overturned anytime given the reclusive state's unpredictability. The North has invited an unspecified number of reporters from South Korea, the U.S., China, Russia and the U.K. to the dismantlement ceremony scheduled for sometime between Wednesday and Friday. In the South, news wire News1 and broadcaster MBC were selected to cover the event. The two companies selected four staff ? two writers and two photographers from News1 and two reporters and two cameramen from MBC ? respectively. They are on their way to China. Associated Press, ABC and CNN are among invited foreign news outlets invited to send staff. North Korea has demanded that media representatives arrive at its Beijing embassy by Tuesday 11 a.m. Those who pay for a visa will travel to Wonsan on a 70-seat North Korean charter flight and then to the test site by bus. Meanwhile, the North has not accepted South Korea's proposed list of reporters chosen to cover the dismantlement. Seoul's unification ministry has been trying to convey the list through the communication channel at the Panmunjom truce village since late last week, but the North has not responded. [Punggye-ri]
• 8 South Korean reporters invited to witness nuke test site blowup
  Posted : 2018-05-15 15:52 Updated : 2018-05-15 15:59 North Korea will invite South Korean reporters from one news agency and from one television broadcaster to observe the dismantling of a nuclear test site between May 23 and May 25, South Korea's Ministry of Unification said on Tuesday. The South Korean reporters will be allowed in to North Korea on a flight from Beijing, with other foreign media covering the event, on May 22. They will then go by train to the nuclear site, then return on May 26 or May 27, the South Korean ministry said in a statement, citing a North Korean notice. North Korea has said it will dismantle its nuclear test site between May 23 and May 25, to uphold its pledge to discontinue nuclear tests, its state media reported on Saturday, a month ahead of a planned North Korea-U.S. summit in Singapore. (REUTERS) [Moratorium18] [Punggye-ri]
• North Korea to publicly blow up nuclear test site on May 23-25
  Posted : 2018-05-13 10:49 Updated : 2018-05-13 16:10 North Korea announced Saturday it will publicly dismantle its northern nuclear test site in a ceremony scheduled for between May 23 and 25, adding it is taking "technical measures" to that end. The announcement by the North's foreign ministry moves the communist country closer to honoring an offer made by its leader Kim Jong-un during the inter-Korean summit last month. In an English-language statement carried by the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), the foreign ministry detailed the country's plans to shut down its Pyunggye-ri nuclear test ground. It said the ruling Workers' Party and other relevant institutions are "taking technical measures for dismantling the northern nuclear test ground" in order to "ensure transparency of discontinuance of the nuclear test." During the third inter-Korean summit on April 27, Kim told South Korean President Moon Jae-in that he would "carry out the closure of the northern nuclear test site in May," according to Seoul's presidential office, Cheong Wa Dae. Kim also offered to make the dismantling public. And the North's foreign ministry said the ceremony for the occasion has been scheduled for between May 23 and 25, depending on weather conditions. Given the limited space, only journalists from South Korea, China, Russia, the United States and Britain will be invited to cover the dismantling on-site, the ministry added. It also said North Korea will provide all international journalists with charter flights from Beijing to North Korea's Wonsan, and from there, they will be offered a special charter train to Pyunggye-ri. The North will set up a press center and arrange special accommodation for the journalists. "(North Korea) will, also in the future, promote close contacts and dialogue with the neighboring countries and the international society so as to safeguard peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and over the globe," the ministry also said. The ministry added the dismantlement will be done according to this sequence: collapsing all tunnels with an explosion, blocking entrances, and removing all observation and research facilities, as well as the guard unit structures on the testing ground. "In parallel with dismantlement of the nuclear test ground, guards and researchers will be withdrawn and the surrounding area of the test ground will be completely closed," the ministry said. North Korea has conducted all six of its nuclear tests in Punggye-ri in the northeast since 2006. The sixth and most recent one was carried out on Sept. 3, 2017. On April 21, 2018, Pyongyang announced after a key ruling party meeting that it would dismantle the site because it has already completed its nuclear development. (Yonhap) [Punggye-ri]
• Nuclear Inspectors Would Face Monumental Task in N.Korea
  By Cho Yi-jun May 08, 2018 12:28 The U.S.' call for a "permanent, verifiable, irreversible dismantlement" of North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile programs would pose a monumental task for international inspectors. U.S. officials project "the most extensive inspection campaign in the history of nuclear disarmament, one that would have to delve into a program that stretches back more than half a century and now covers square miles of industrial sites and hidden tunnels across the mountainous North," according to the New York Times on Sunday. [Verification][Denuclearisation]
• U.S. Says N.Korea Must Stop Launching Ballistic Missiles Too
  By Cho Yi-jun More May 08, 2018 10:18 The U.S. State Department has made it clear that North Korea must also stop developing intercontinental ballistic missiles, Voice of America reported on Sunday. Asked by VOA whether a request to stop missile launches includes a halt to satellite launches, a State Department spokesman said, "Any satellite launch using ballistic missile technology would be a clear violation of these resolutions." North Korea has repeatedly claimed that its launches of ICBM prototypes were for the purpose of launching peaceful satellites, though no signal has ever been detected from space. "Multiple UN Security Council resolutions require North Korea to suspend all activities related to its ballistic missile program, re-establish a moratorium on missile launches, stop conducting any launches using ballistic missile technology, and abandon its ballistic missile program in a complete, verifiable, and irreversible manner," the spokesman added. [US NK policy] [SLV] [Missile tests]
• What Are N.Korea's Nuclear Facilities?
  By Yu Yong-weon May 05, 2018 08:09 North Korea is believed to have at least 15 nuclear facilities which can be classified into two atomic reactors and three nuclear power plants concentrated in Yongbyon, North Pyongan Province. At the top of the list are a 5MW reactor, reprocessing and uranium enrichment facilities, and manufacturing plants for nuclear fuel rods. There is also a new experimental light-water reactor in the Yongbyon nuclear facility that was recently spotted by a satellite. There some 390 buildings in the Yongbyon complex alone. North Korea is believed to have succeeded in extracting 40 to 50 kg of plutonium and enriched more than 600 to 700 kg of uranium. There are thought to be some 2,000 centrifuges enriching uranium in Yongbyon and elsewhere. North Korea is believed to have extracted enough plutonium and enriched enough uranium to make 30 to 40 nuclear weapons that rival the 15 kiloton atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. One kiloton has the impact of 1,000 tons of dynamite. The North has around 1,000 short-range and intercontinental ballistic missiles with a maximum range of over 5,500 km. Around a dozen are Hwasong-12 mid-range missiles that can reach the U.S. territory of Guam in the Pacific Ocean and Hwasong-14 and 15 ICBMs that can hit the U.S. mainland. North Korea also has around 600 Scud missiles with a range of 300-500 km that can hit South Korea and around 200 Rodong missiles with a range of 1,300 km. They have been deployed at nine military bases from the frontlines to the rear areas. [Nuclear capability]

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APRIL 2018

• Vandenberg AFB to test launch unarmed ICBM early Wednesday
  Posted: Apr 25, 2018 9:05 AM Updated: Apr 25, 2018 9:05 AM By KSBY Staff An unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile launches from Vandenberg Air Force Base on May 3, 2017. (U.S. Air Force photo by 2nd Lt. William Collette) Vandenberg Air Force Base plans to test launch an unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile Wednesday morning. The launch is scheduled for April 25 between 3:26 a.m. and 9:36 a.m. The Air Force says the purpose of the launch is to test the system, procedures and Airmen involved in all phases of the program. Air Force officials say there are usually four such tests per year. The last Minuteman III test launch occurred on Aug. 2, 2017. A launch that was scheduled for Feb. 2018 was postponed. [ICBM] [Test] [Double standards]
• North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Research Center: Construction Progressing Rapidly Near Reactors; No Signs of Reprocessing
  By: 38 North April 6, 2018 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Frank V. Pabian, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., and Jack Liu. Commercial satellite imagery of the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center from April 4 shows significant progress in the modifications underway associated with the 5 MWe reactor’s secondary cooling system. (Figure 1) Over the past five days, a rectangular, concrete-walled, vault-like foundation has been erected.[1] (Figures 2 and 3) The purpose of this new structure remains unclear, but it could be for a new pump house comparable to the one serving the ELWR. Given recent efforts to dam the river below this point to create a reservoir, this could be part of a larger effort to provide a steady flow of water into that reactor allowing it to run more continuously and safely in the future. Alternatively, since its location is near where the reactor cooling water used to be expelled during previous reactor operations, it could be part of a new cooling water outflow system to enhance the overall efficiency and potentially the cooling capacity of the secondary cooling loop. [Yongbyon]
• USS Nebraska Successfully Tests Trident II D5 Missile
  Story Number: NNS180329-18Release Date: 3/29/2018 5:27:00 PM By Mass Communication Specialist First Class Ronald Gutridge SAN DIEGO (NNS) -- The Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine USS Nebraska (SSBN 739) along with the U.S. Navy's Strategic Systems Programs (SSP) conducted successful test flights of two Trident II D5 Missiles, March 26. The unarmed test missiles were launched as part of Demonstration and Shakedown Operation (DASO) 28 in the Pacific Test Range off the coast of Southern California. The missiles were launched as a double mission test and were the key element of DASO 28, which marked the 166th and 167th successful test flights of the Trident II D5 missile since its introduction to the fleet in 1989. The primary objective of the DASO is to evaluate and demonstrate the readiness of the SSBN's strategic weapon system and crew before operational deployment following midlife refueling overhaul. SSP, along with Naval Ordnance Test Unit, oversees the DASO certification process and provides integrated testing and evaluation capabilities, while various other organizations provide support. More than 130 special guests were invited aboard USNS Waters (T-AGS 45), a Military Sealift Command (MSC) vessel, to witness the event and learn more about SSP and the DASO process. "The successful completion of DASO 28 was not only an important milestone in USS Nebraska's return to service, but also an important demonstration of the reliable and credible sea-based leg of the U.S. nuclear deterrent triad," said Capt. Mark Behning, deputy director, SSP. [Deterrent] [Test] [Double standards] [Trident] [SLBM]
• North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Research Center: Major Activity at the Five Megawatt Reactor
  April 4, 2018 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Frank V. Pabian, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., and Jack Liu. Commercial satellite imagery from March 30 indicates that North Korea may have shut down the 5 MWe (plutonium production) reactor for the time being. A major excavation project has also begun near the cooling water outfall, which, when coupled with recent efforts to dam the river below this point to create a reservoir, could indicate an attempt to provide a more steady flow of water into the facility. This would allow for the reactor to run more continuously and safely in the future. There is also new truck activity at the reactor, the purpose of which is unclear but could include maintenance or repairs, the movement of spent fuel rods to the Radiochemical Laboratory from the spent fuel storage pond, or the offloading of fresh fuel to the reactor. Despite the apparent reactor shutdown, there was no evidence (as of March 30) of plutonium reprocessing taking place at the Radiochemical Laboratory. However, this development should be monitored closely in the future. At the Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR), work continues on an adjacent building that may be a laboratory or for engineering support, but there are no obvious signs that the reactor is approaching operational status. [Yongbyon] [Plutonium]
• Investing in Minds Not Missiles – Reducing the Threat of Nuclear War
  Saturday, April 7, 2018 - 10:00am 34-101 Join us for an all-day conference on nuclear proliferation on Saturday, April 7 here at MIT. [Proliferation] [Disarmament]
• New Building Construction Near North Korea’s Experimental Light Water Reactor
  By: 38 North March 30, 2018 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Frank V. Pabian, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., and Jack Liu Commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center from March 20 indicates construction of a new building has begun inside the perimeter security wall near the Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR), directly across from the ELWR’s main personnel entrance. An old support building near that new structure has also been partially razed and there has been significant movement of vehicles and construction support equipment in the adjacent primary reactor construction yard that is directly involved in the construction of the ELWR. The new building, while only in an early phase of construction, exhibits the internal wall structure typical of an engineering laboratory or office building. [Yongbyon] [ELWR]

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MARCH 2018

• Nuclear Command-And-Control In The Quantum Era
  In this essay, Peter Hayes concludes: “Given the choices being made by the nuclear armed states to re-embrace nuclear weapons, it is useful to speculate about the potential effects of quantum technology on nuclear forces, and in particular, possible consequences for NC3 systems. At least some of the early intimations of quantum (Q) technology may be superimposed onto nuclear weapons control systems today to anticipate some of the changes already on the horizon.” [Nuclear weapons] [Command and Control]
• Did U.S.-Made Saudi Missile Defenses Fail During Yemen Rocket Attack?
  By David Brennan On 3/26/18 at 7:13 AM World Saudi Arabia Yemen Patriot Missiles Houthis Saudi Arabia has claimed to have intercepted seven ballistic missiles fired by Houthi forces from Yemen, using the U.S.-made MIM-104 Patriot missile defense system. However, footage has emerged suggesting that at least two of the Patriot missiles failed. Videos posted to social media show one exploding in midair and another performing an abrupt U-turn before slamming into the ground. The interceptions resulted in one death after debris fell on residential areas in Riyadh, Saudi military officials said. This is the first fatality in the capital related to a Houthi missile attack, according to Reuters. • Three of the missiles were aimed at the Saudi capital Riyadh, one at Khamis Mushait, one at Najran and two at Jizan. A military statement said that the interception of the missiles led to fragments “raining on a few residential neighborhoods,” which led to the death of an Egyptian resident and material damage to civilian property. Two other civilians were injured. Despite Saudi claims of success, it is possible that at least two missiles “failed catastrophically,” according to Jeffrey Lewis, Director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey, California. Lewis noted that one missile seemed to fail in midair and that a second quickly turned around and crashed into the ground. [Missile defense] [Efficacy]
• North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: Significant Slowdown in Tunneling
  By: 38 North March 23, 2018Satellite Imagery, WMD Facebook Twitter Email Print A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Frank V. Pabian, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. and Jack Liu Commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site from mid-March 2018 suggests that there has been a significant slowdown in tunneling and a reduced presence of related personnel at the site when compared to just two weeks earlier. During this same time period, high-level talks between North and South Korea moved forward, including Pyongyang’s proposal for a summit with US President Donald Trump. [Punggye-ri] [Test] [March18 Initiative]
• NADA General Satellite Control Building
  By: 38 North March 22, 2018 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr.; panorama by Nathan J. Hunt In May 2015, during field guidance visit from Kim Jong Un, North Korea unveiled a new General Satellite Control Building[1] in Pyongyang, replacing the old General Satellite Control and Command Centre and serving as the central headquarters for the DPRK’s National Aerospace Development Administration (NADA). The newer facility greatly expanded and modernized the North’s ability to track and monitor satellite launches. Construction began on the General Satellite Control Center in Pyongyang around May 2014 and was still underway when Kim Jong Un made his site visit to in May 2015. The center was externally complete by August 2015 and was the location of a CNN interview of NADA officials in September 2015. [SLV] [Satellite] [Space]
• Sohae Satellite Launching Station Remains Quiet
  By: 38 North March 20, 2018 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. Commercial satellite imagery from March 14 of the Sohae Satellite Launching Station, North Korea’s main space launch facility, indicates little activity around the facility as a whole and shows no indications of a recent or forthcoming engine test or preparations for a satellite launch. At the vertical engine test stand, the rail-mounted environmental shelter remains in the same position it has been since December 2017. At the launch pad, construction of a new building immediately to the south continues at a very slow pace, although its purpose is still unknown. At the former satellite control building, a monument has been constructed and is surrounded by a new orchard. [Sohae] [SLV] [Satellite]
• Activist sees US-North Korea summit as an important step on the road to global denuclearization
  Posted on : Mar.15,2018 17:04 KST Modified on : Mar.15,2018 17:04 KST Akira Kawasaki of ICAN stresses the need for establishing international verification standards Akira Kawasaki, a steering committee member of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, speaks about a South Korean-Japanese citizens’ peace meeting at the offices of the group People’s Solidarity for Participatory Democracy in the Jongno district of Seoul on Mar. 14. (by Kim Kyung-ho, staff photographer) “If denuclearization of North Korea can be achieved through summits with South Korea and the US, this will a historical step toward a world without nuclear weapons,” said Akira Kawasaki, an international steering committee member with the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN). A coalition of civic groups around the world, ICAN won the Nobel Peace Prize in recognition of its success in leading to the UN’s adoption of the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty in July 2017. While in South Korea to attend a “South Korean-Japanese citizens’ peace meeting” organized by the city of Seoul, Kawasaki sat down for an interview with the Hankyoreh on Mar. 14 at the offices of the group People’s Solidarity for Participatory Democracy (SPD) in Seoul’s Jongno district. The Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty spearheaded by ICAN goes a step farther than the previous Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty to mandate the abandonment of nuclear weapons by countries that already possess them. The treaty was adopted by the UN General Assembly last July with support from 122 countries - not including nuclear powers like the US and Russia or their allies, including South Korea and Japan. [Nuclear disarmament] [ICAN] [Wishful thinking]
• North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Complex: 5 MWe Reactor is Likely Operating, New Military Encampment Established
  By: 38 North March 5, 2018 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Frank V. Pabian, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. and Jack Liu Commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center from February 25 indicates that the 5 MWe reactor continue to show signs of operation as indicated by steam vapor plumes emanating from the generator hall and river ice melt near the reactor. Under normal operations, we would also expect to see a cooling water discharge near the river outfall. And while vapor plumes have been noted a few times over the past year, no cooling water discharges have been observed to support this conclusion. However, we cannot rule out that the North Koreans may have suppressed this signature by extending the discharge pipe into the river. If the reactor is operating again, as the evidence suggests, it means North Korea has resumed production of plutonium presumably for its nuclear weapons program. It also means that the North has likely extended its cooling water pipeline into the river (rather than near the river) to better conceal the reactor’s operational status, making monitoring efforts more difficult going forward. [Yongbyon] [Plutonium]
• The Pentagon’s alarming nuclear posture review
  by Gwynne Dyer Feb 6, 2018 LONDON – The nuclear posture review published by the Pentagon late last week announced that the United States will be getting two new types of nuclear weapons to provide, in the words of U.S. officials, “more flexible capabilities to give tailored deterrence.” “Tailored deterrence”? What on Earth is that supposed to mean? It’s a brand new euphemism that is designed to disguise an old, largely discredited and very dangerous concept. The U.S. is once again playing with the notion of a “limited” nuclear war — and everybody else is very unhappy about it. Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, called the move “confrontational,” and expressed “deep disappointment.” The Chinese defense ministry said: “We hope that the United States will abandon its Cold War mentality [and] earnestly assume its special disarmament responsibilities.” Even the Iranian foreign minister warned that the new move would bring the world “closer to annihilation.” [NPR] [Nuclear strategy]

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FEBRUARY 2018

• Only 5 Nations Can Hit Any Place on Earth With a Missile. For Now.
  By Sergio Peçanha and Keith Collins Feb. 7, 2018 North Korea has drastically increased the range of its missiles. In tests last year, the nation showed that it could probably strike the United States. [Missiles]
• SpaceX successfully launches the world’s most powerful rocket, the Falcon Heavy, as it sends a Tesla on a path near Mars
  By Christian Davenport February 6 at 3:49 PM Email the author 1:00 Watch the SpaceX Falcon Heavy launch, in 60 seconds SpaceX launched a Falcon Heavy rocket on Feb. 6 from the Apollo launchpad 39A at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida. (SpaceX) KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, Fla. — SpaceX successfully launched what is now the world’s most powerful rocket Tuesday, a towering behemoth known as the Falcon Heavy that tore through the sky with the thundering force of 18 Boeing 747 jetliners. Lifting off at 3:45 p.m. from the same launchpad that sent the crew of Apollo 11 to the moon, the rocket sent up a mountain-sized plume of smoke and a rattling roar across Florida’s Space Coast, where thousands gathered to watch. The mission represented the first test of the massive rocket, powered by 27 engines in three first-stage boosters that are essentially strapped together. The maiden flight also marked the first time a privately financed venture ever attempted to launch a rocket so powerful that it was capable of hoisting a payload out of Earth's orbit. As a promotional stunt, SpaceX founder Elon Musk loaded the Falcon Heavy with his own cherry-red Tesla Roadster carrying a spacesuit-clad mannequin named "Starman" in the driver's seat. Musk said he planned to send the convertible, built by another one of his companies, into an orbit around the sun that would take it near Mars. It was a beautiful day for a launch. Clear blue skies. A slight breeze. Warm weather that attracted space fans by the thousands who lined the beaches and causeways in anticipation. SpaceX topped off the launch by successfully landing two boosters on land, setting off twin sonic booms on their return. (A third first-stage, the so-called center core, crash landed at sea.) At SpaceX's headquarters, throngs of employees cheered wildly as the rocket soared out of the atmosphere. [SLV] [Privatisation] [Musk]
• Gov't Postpones Moon-Landing Plans
  February 06, 2018 11:26 The government has slammed the brakes on a plan concocted by the Park Geun-hye administration to send a Korean space ship to the moon by 2020. Plans for the first and second launches of a Korean-made space rocket were also postponed by more than a year to February and October of 2021, the Ministry of Science and ICT said Monday. The government now plans to send a space ship to the moon by 2030 and launch a rocket carrying a space vehicle to and from an asteroid by 2035. The Park administration came up with the moon-expedition plan in 2013. The original idea was the brainchild of the Roh Moon-hyun administration back in 2007. The idea was to send a Korean-made lunar-exploration module by 2025. Park pledged during her presidential election campaign to push the goal forward by five years. "It's wrong to revise the space plans whenever a new government comes into office. They need to be pursued in the long-term perspective," one scientist said. [SLV]
• How Mattis changed his mind on nuclear weapons
  Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has rescinded doubts over the U.S. nuclear arsenal after a months-long review. (Jacquelyn Martin/AP) By Paul Sonne February 5 at 6:31 PM Email the author When retired Marine Corps Gen. Jim Mattis became defense secretary last year, he arrived at the Pentagon with reservations about the U.S. nuclear arsenal. He had doubts about an ­air-launched nuclear cruise missile under development at the Pentagon and questioned whether the United States should have intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos at all. But in the year since then, Mattis has changed his tune. The nuclear weapons policy his team rolled out at the Pentagon last week offered full-throated support for the military’s current and planned nuclear capabilities, including the new cruise missile and the ICBM fleet he once questioned. The strategy marks a resounding win for backers of the U.S. nuclear enterprise and a setback for disarmament advocates. Mattis is scheduled to testify on the matter Tuesday on Capitol Hill. The policy reaffirms a full modernization of the U.S. nuclear force approved by President Barack Obama, which replaces the military’s nuclear bombers, submarines and ICBMs at an estimated cost of $1.2 trillion over 30 years. It calls for two types of nuclear weapons not currently in the arsenal. [Mattis] [Nuclear strategy]
• Trump’s request for even more nuclear weapons is flawed overkill
  Deputy Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan, left, speaks next to Deputy Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette during a news conference on the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review at the Pentagon on Feb. 2. (Jacquelyn Martin/AP) By Editorial Board February 3 at 8:01 PM BEFORE PRESIDENT TRUMP took office, the United States had started a large and expensive upgrade of its strategic nuclear forces to replace those from the Reagan era. Modernization was essential, but there had been a failure to make hard choices or set priorities. Yet now comes the Trump administration seeking even more. The Navy already is designing a new fleet of a dozen ballistic missile submarines, the Columbia class; the Air Force wants a new long-range strategic bomber, the B-21 Raider, as well as a new long-range cruise missile and replacements for existing land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles. The Energy Department is modifying and extending the life of nuclear bombs and warheads. Now the Nuclear Posture Review, unveiled Friday, declares a need for modified nuclear warheads of lower yield than those typically put on strategic weapons such as intercontinental ballistic missiles, and also for a new, nuclear-armed, sea-launched cruise missile. The report argues that the United States needs more “flexible” options to meet possible threats from resurgent Russia and China, and that these supplemental and “tailored” options will enhance deterrence. [Nuclear Strategy] [NPR18]
• Exclusive: Kim's rocket stars - The trio behind North Korea's missile program
  Ju-min Park, James Pearson SEOUL (Reuters) - After successful missile launches, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un often exchanges smiles and hugs with the same three men and shares a celebratory smoke with them. The three, shown with Kim in photographs and TV footage in North Korean media, are of great interest to Western security and intelligence agencies since they are the top people in the secretive country’s rapidly accelerating missile program. They include Ri Pyong Chol, a former top air force general; Kim Jong Sik, a veteran rocket scientist; and Jang Chang Ha, the head of a weapons development and procurement center. The photographs and TV footage show that the three are clearly Kim’s favorites. Their behavior with him is sharply at variance with the obsequiousness of other senior aides, most of whom bow and hold their hands over their mouths when speaking to the young leader. Unlike most other officials, two of them have flown with Kim in his private plane Goshawk-1, named after North Korea’s national bird, state TV has shown. [Deterrent] [Missiles]
• Pentagon unveils new nuclear weapons strategy, ending Obama-era push to reduce U.S. arsenal
  By Paul Sonne February 2 at 5:51 PM Email the author The Pentagon released a new nuclear arms policy Friday that calls for the introduction of two new types of weapons, effectively ending Obama-era efforts to reduce the size and scope of the U.S. arsenal and minimize the role of nuclear weapons in defense planning. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said in an introductory note to the new policy — the first update to the military’s nuclear strategy since 2010 — that the changes reflect a need to “look reality in the eye” and “see the world as it is, not as we wish it to be.” The previous administration’s policy hinged on what President Barack Obama called a moral obligation for the United States to lead by example in ridding the world of nuclear weapons. Officials in the Trump administration and the U.S. military argue that Obama’s approach proved overly idealistic, particularly as relations with Moscow soured. Russia, China and North Korea, they say, all advanced their nuclear weapons capabilities instead of following suit. [Trump] [Nuclear strategy]
• Boeing Gets $6.6 Billion From Pentagon to Expand Missile Defense
  By Anthony Capaccio February 1, 2018, 11:01 AM GMT+13 Missile Defense Agency extends Boeing management by six years Contract calls for buying 20 more Orbital ATK interceptors Boeing Wins $6.6 Billion Missile Defense Contract Boeing Co. has received a $6.56 billion contract to continue managing the U.S. missile defense system intended to stop North Korean or Iranian intercontinental ballistic missiles, the Defense Department said. The sole-source contract announced Wednesday extends Boeing’s management role for six more years, through 2023, and brings its total contract to $12.6 billion. It includes overseeing the addition of 20 ground-based interceptors to the 44 already stationed in California and Alaska. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has vowed to perfect a nuclear warhead and a missile that could hit the U.S. mainland, adding to the urgency of U.S. missile defense efforts. In his State of the Union address on Tuesday, President Donald Trump said, “North Korea’s reckless pursuit of nuclear missiles could very soon threaten our homeland. We are waging a campaign of maximum pressure to prevent that from ever happening.” [Missile defense] [Being] [Threat]
• U.S. Test of Missile Interceptor Fails Off Hawaiian Coast, Officials Say
  By Helene Cooper and Eric Schmitt Jan. 31, 2018 Photo A test in California of an interceptor known as the SM-3 Block IIA. Credit Ralph Scott/Missile Defense Agency WASHINGTON — An American interceptor missile missed its target in a test off the Hawaiian coast on Wednesday, Defense Department officials said, renewing concerns of how the United States will defend itself in the event of a missile attack by North Korea or another adversary. A Pentagon official said that the interceptor, an SM-3 Block IIA missile that is being developed by the Raytheon Company, was launched from a test site in Hawaii. Officials likened the test launch to an attempt to hit a bullet with another bullet. It was the second failure over the past year of a test of the SM-3, known as the standard missile; the last one was in June. [Missile defense] [Failure]
• US military fails in missile interception test
  Posted : 2018-02-01 16:26 Updated : 2018-02-02 09:33 By Lee Min-hyung The United States military has failed to shoot down a dummy missile off the coast of Hawaii, Wednesday (local time), in a test drill to prepare for intensifying missile threats from North Korea, according to reports. The U.S. Department of Defense established a missile launch test site on the island where the SM-3 Block IIA missile - co-developed by the U.S. and Japan - failed to hit a missile launched from an aircraft, local reports said, citing Pentagon sources. No reason was given for the test's failure. There was a similar failure in June last year, although some tests in recent years were successful. "The Missile Defense Agency and the U.S. Navy sailors manning the Aegis Ashore Missile Defense Test Complex conducted a live-fire missile flight test using a Standard-Missile (SM)-3 Block IIA missile launched from the Pacific Missile Range Facility, Kauai, Hawaii, Wednesday morning," Mark Wright, a spokesman from the Missile Defense Agency, was quoted as saying. The agency did not confirm other details. The test failure raises concerns that the U.S. remains vulnerable to possible attacks, particularly from North Korea, which continues to step up its bellicose rhetoric against the U.S. and its allies, including South Korea. Reports have also said the Pentagon did not make any public announcements about the test result due to sensitivity over the potential military threat from North Korea, which will participate in the PyeongChang Winter Olympics beginning next week. [Missile defense] [Failure]

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JANUARY 2018

• North Korea’s Solid-propellant Rocket Engine Production Infrastructure: The No. 17 Factory in Hamhung
  By: 38 North January 30, 2018Satellite Imagery A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. For the past five years, 38 North has been researching North Korea’s development and production of solid-propellant rocket engines to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the North’s ballistic missile program. While a number of potential production facilities have been identified throughout the country, the No. 17 Explosives Factory[1] and its branch factories near Hamhung have been identified as being the most probable site for the manufacture of the latest large solid-propellant rocket engines,[2] based on the location of several critical supporting facilities in the general area. The September 2017 UN Panel of Experts Report supports this assessment, stating: The Pukguksong-1 and -2 show the ascendancy of solid-fuel engines in the modernization of the country’s ballistic missile forces. This is also reinforced by the modifications and constructions experienced by an industrial area near the solid-fuel engine test site of Hamhung which could be linked to a solid-fuel production plant (see annex 5).[3] [Solid Fuel] [Pukguksong2]
• The Doomsday Clock is now just 2 minutes to ‘midnight,’ the symbolic hour of the apocalypse
  by Lindsey Bever, Sarah Kaplan and Abby Ohlheiser January 25 at 4:02 PM 2:35 Why the doomsday clock is getting closer to 'midnight' Members of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists explain why they advanced the symbolic Doomsday Clock a notch closer to the end of humanity on Jan. 25. (The Washington Post) Alexa, what time is the apocalypse? Ulp. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists advanced the symbolic Doomsday Clock a notch closer to the end of humanity Thursday, moving it ahead by 30 seconds after what the organization called a “grim assessment” of the state of geopolitical affairs. “As of today,” Bulletin president Rachel Bronson told reporters, “it is two minutes to midnight” — as close as the world has ever been to the hour of apocalypse. In moving the clock forward, the group cited “the failure of President Trump and other world leaders to deal with looming threats of nuclear war and climate change.” The organization — which has 15 Nobel laureates on its board — now believes “the world is not only more dangerous now than it was a year ago; it is as threatening as it has been since World War II,” Bulletin officials Lawrence M. Krauss and Robert Rosner wrote in an op-ed published Thursday by The Washington Post. “In fact, the Doomsday Clock is as close to midnight today as it was in 1953, when Cold War fears perhaps reached their highest levels.” [Nuclear war] [Trump]
• There Are Thousands of People Who Could Launch a Nuclear War
  It's scary to think of Donald Trump or Kim Jung-un with a nuclear button. Scarier are all the nameless functionaries with the same. By Conn Hallinan, January 24, 2018. When President Donald Trump bragged that his nuclear “button” was bigger and more efficient than North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un’s, he was perpetuating the myth that the leaders of nuclear-armed nations control their weapons. But you don’t have to be Trump or Kim — or Russian President Vladimir Putin, British Prime Minister Theresa May, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Pakistani Prime Minister Mamnoon Hussain, or Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu — to push that “button.” There are thousands of buttons and thousands of people who can initiate a nuclear war. Indeed, the very nature of nuclear weapons requires that the power to use them is decentralized and dispersed. And while it is sobering to think of unhinged-seeming leaders like Kim and Trump with their finger on the trigger, a nuclear war is far more likely to be started by some anonymous captain in an Ohio-class submarine patrolling the Pacific, or a Pakistani colonel on the Indian border. [Nuclear strategy] [False balance]
• N. Korea aims to simultaneously fire multiple nukes: CIA
  Posted : 2018-01-24 09:02 Updated : 2018-01-24 09:54 North Korea is pushing to acquire the capability to fire multiple nuclear missiles at the same time, increasing the threat posed to the United States, the head of the Central Intelligence Agency said Tuesday. Speaking at the American Enterprise Institute, CIA Director Mike Pompeo also said the U.S. mission is to extend that timeline as much as possible. "Kim Jong-un will not rest with a single successful test," he said, referring to the North Korean leader. "The logical next step would be to develop an arsenal of weapons that is not one, not a showpiece, not something to drive on a parade route ... but rather the capacity to deliver from multiple firings of these missiles simultaneously." Pyongyang last year conducted its first tests of an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the mainland U.S. It also detonated its sixth nuclear bomb. Pompeo has repeatedly said that North Korea is just months away from having the ability to nuke the U.S. "I want everybody to understand that we are working diligently to make sure that a year from now I can still tell you they are several months away from having that capacity," he said. U.S. President Donald Trump wants a diplomatic solution to the North Korea crisis, Pompeo added, but "we are equally, at the same time, ensuring that if we conclude that is not possible, that we present the president with a range of options." The CIA chief also noted that Kim appears to seek Korean reunification on his terms, not just protection of his regime, by pursuing the nuclear capability. (Yonhap) [CIA] [Missiles] [Military balance]
• U.S.: N.Korea's Recklessness Put Civilian Air Traffic in Danger
  VOA News January 18, 2018 08:24 Passengers on a commercial flight from San Francisco to Hong Kong could see a North Korean intercontinental ballistic missile flying through the November sky, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson told a gathering of foreign ministers in Vancouver, Canada on Tuesday, highlighting what he called the "recklessness" of Kim Jong-un's regime. North Korea test fired what it said was an ICBM on Nov. 28 last year. According to the Federal Aviation Administration, the commercial airline was 280 nautical miles from the point of impact. At the time, it said, there were nine other flights within that range. [Missile test] [Spin]
• Non-State Terrorism and Inadvertent Nuclear War
  Peter Hayes January 18, 2018 In this essay, Peter Hayes concludes that: “Each nuclear armed state will make its moves in response to the posited terrorist nuclear attack partly in response to its expectations as to how other nuclear armed states will perceive and respond to these moves—and considered together, it is obvious that they may not share a common image of the other states’ motivations and actions in this response, leading to cumulative potential for misinterpretation and rapid subsequent action, reaction, and escalation.” Acknowledgment: This report was funded by MacArthur Foundation. The author thanks John Carlson, Martha Crenshaw, Terrence Roehrig, Lee Sigal, and Ramesh Thakur for their review comments. The author alone is responsible for this text. Peter Hayes is Director of the Nautilus Institute and Honorary Professor at the Centre for International Security Studies at the University of Sydney. Paper prepared for Workshop Reducing Risk of Nuclear Terrorism and Spent Fuel Vulnerability in East Asia co-sponsored by Nautilus Institute and Research Center for the Abolition of Nuclear Weapons, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, January 20-22, 2017 [Nuclear strategy] [NSA]
• Quick Takes: No Signs of Recent Tests at the Magunpo Engine Test Facility
  By: 38 North January 19, A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. Commercial satellite imagery from January 10, 2018 shows no indications of any recent solid-fuel engine tests at the Magunpo Solid-fuel Rocket Engine Test Facility.[1] The last test conducted there, according to US government sources, was around mid-October of last year. The facility is being well-maintained and appears ready for future testing. Figure 1. No indication of solid-fuel engine tests conducted at Magunpo. Pleaides © CNES 2018, Distribution Airbus DS. For media options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com. [1] First identified during April 2013, the Magunpo Solid-fuel Rocket Engine Test Facility is the largest such facility identified to date in North Korea. Little is known concerning its operations. It was not publicized by the North Koreans until March 2016, when Kim Jong Un “guided” a test of a large solid-fuel rocket engine there. [Engine test]
• Quick Takes: Work Continues on the Submersible Sea-launched Ballistic Missile Test Stand Barge at Nampo
  By: 38 North January 16, A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. Commercial satellite imagery from January 6 indicates work on North Korea’s second submersible ballistic missile test stand barge,[1] berthed at the Nampo Navy Shipyard, is ongoing. Since the last report, when the barge was moved to the nearby fitting-out dock, there is now a small floating crane moored alongside the barge and its boom is extended over it. The purpose of the work is unclear. However, it is probably related to final stages of repair before declaring the barge operational since both the test stand barge and floating crane are located at the fitting-out dock.[2] It is unclear when the barge will become operational. [SLBM]
• Global Zero Responds to Leaked Draft of Trump’s Nuclear Posture Review
  Group Warns Implementation of Trump’s Plan Makes Nuclear War More Likely 12 January 2018 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Friday, January 12, 2018 CONTACT: Brett Abrams | 516-841-1105 | brett@unbendablemedia.com Last night, The Huffington Post released a pre-decisional draft of the Trump administration’s Nuclear Posture Review. The document outlined a strategy that includes the development of new, so-called “low-yield” nuclear weapons — expanding the number of scenarios in which the first use of nuclear weapons would be considered, including in response to non-nuclear attack. In reaction to the leaked document, Derek Johnson, executive director of Global Zero, the international movement for the elimination of nuclear weapons, issued the following statement: “This leaked draft of the NPR is a radical document and terrifying in almost every respect. Trump’s plan to develop so-called ‘low-yield’ nuclear weapons and loosen restrictions on their use is a dramatic departure from long-standing U.S. policy that makes nuclear war more likely. The world is about to get a whole lot more dangerous. [Trump] [Nuclear strategy] [Low-yield]
• Lost in space? Questions mount over fate of secret satellite as SpaceX pushes ahead
  SpaceX launches secret satellite into orbit A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket was successfully launched into space on Jan. 7, to deliver a secret U.S. government satellite. (Reuters) By Christian Davenport January 12 The top-secret satellite known only by a code name, “Zuma,” was a mystery from the start. Its classified mission was intentionally inscrutable, whether to detect missile launches, spy on adversaries or track ships at sea with a space radar. The satellite was so highly secretive that it was not publicly released which government agency — The National Reconnaissance Office? The CIA? — was responsible for it. During the launch on the evening of Jan. 7, SpaceX cut short its webcast so that it wouldn’t reveal details of where the satellite was going or what it looked like. Now there’s another mystery: What happened to Zuma? After reports Monday that the satellite suffered some sort of failure, SpaceX rushed to defend its reputation, denying that it had done anything wrong. Its Falcon 9 rocket “performed nominally,” it said. Then, on Tuesday morning, SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell issued a more strongly worded statement, saying: “For clarity: after review of all data to date, Falcon 9 did everything correctly on Sunday night. If we or others find otherwise based on further review, we will report it immediately.” In this image made with an eight-minute-long exposure, the SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket launches and lands as seen from the Ocean Club Marina in Port Canaveral, Fla., on Jan. 7. (Malcolm Denemark/AP) Shotwell pushed back on reports that seemed to implicate SpaceX with the satellite’s demise, saying “information published that is contrary to this statement is categorically false.” [The mystery behind the fate of a top-secret satellite comes at the height of one of Elon Musk’s biggest rivalries] Northrop Grumman, the satellite’s manufacturer, said it could not comment on a classified mission. As members of Congress began requesting classified briefings about what, if anything, went wrong, Pentagon officials were also mum. For SpaceX, the stakes are especially high — not just because a valuable national security asset valued at hundreds of millions of dollars, or more, that it was hired to launch was possibly lost. It had fought so hard for the right to compete for national security launches. After a bitter legal and lobbying battle, the Pentagon certified SpaceX’s Falcon 9 for the missions and now is relying on SpaceX to reliably fly its satellites to orbit. [Satellite] [SpaceX] [Failure] [Privatisation]
• Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: Significant Tunneling Underway at the West Portal
  By: 38 North January 11, 2018Satellite Imagery, WMD A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Frank V. Pabian, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. and Jack Liu. Recent commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site indicates that the North Portal, where the last five nuclear tests were conducted, remains dormant and that tunnel excavation has been stepped up at the West Portal. Throughout December 2017, mining carts and personnel were consistently present around the West Portal and there was significant expansion of the spoil pile. On December 28, there were also a large number of personnel (~100 to 120) observed in seven different formations whose purpose is unknown in the Southern Support Area. These activities underscore North Korea’s continued efforts to maintain the Punggye-ri site’s potential for future nuclear testing. [Punggye-ri]
• Trump to Loosen Restrictions on Use of Nukes
  By Cho Yi-jun January 11, 2018 12:19 The Donald Trump administration will "loosen constraints on the use of nuclear weapons and develop a new low-yield nuclear warhead" for missiles, the Guardian reported Tuesday. The report follows Trump's boast of a "much bigger" nuclear button than North Korean leader Kim jong-un's. Jon Wolfsthal, an arms control adviser to the Barack Obama White House, told the paper the changes will come in a "nuclear posture review" prepared by the Pentagon aimed at deterring Russia from using tactical warheads in a conflict in Eastern Europe. [Trump] [Nuclear strategy]
• Spy Satellites Capture N.Korea's New Missile Launch Site
  By Cho Yi-jun January 05, 2018 10:44 Satellite images suggest that North Korea set up a makeshift assembly facility for intercontinental ballistic missiles in less than a month near Pyongyang. The building sits in the compound of a truck factory in Pyongsong, South Pyongan Province, Voice of America reported on Wednesday. Analysis of satellite images shot by commercial provider DigitalGlobe on Nov. 21 shows an oblong building about 35 m tall and by 15-18 m across in the center of the plant. Satellite images taken in April and November last year show changes at a truck plant in Pyongsong, South Pyongan Province. /Courtesy of DigitalGlobe The North fired a Hwasong-15 missile from Pyongsong on Nov. 29, about a week after the images were shot. But an image of the same area shot on Oct. 24 shows only a pile of what seem to be building materials, meaning it took less than a month to build the facility. It was this speed that allowed the North to take the world by surprise with its latest missile launches. The structure seems to be of the same shape and size as the missile assembly building at the old launch site in Tongchang-ri, an analyst said. [Missile test]
• Kim Jong Un orders up larger missile with re-entry ability
  By Yoshihiro Makino/ Correspondent December 31, 2017 at 14:05 JST SEOUL--North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has ordered the preparation of an even larger ballistic missile capable of successfully re-entering the Earth's atmosphere, possibly for launch in September. A defector knowledgeable about North Korea's missile development program said Kim Jong Un gave the directive at a meeting in Pyongyang on Dec. 11 and 12 involving high-ranking officials involved in the munitions and science sectors. They had gathered for a convention on the military industry. The plan appears to be preparing the missile for launch on Sept. 9, 2018, which marks the 70th anniversary of the founding of North Korea by Kim Il Sung, the grandfather of the current leader. The new missile would be an even larger version of the Unha-3, which had a total length of 30 meters and was launched in December 2012 and February 2016. The Unha-3, an improved version of the Taepodong-2, is a three-stage, long-range ballistic missile. The defector said the new missile would be considered the "Unha-4." The Unha-3 was launched from the long-range ballistic missile launching site in Tongchang-ri, North Phyongan province. [SLV] [Media] [Unha-3]

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