Satellite and Nuclear Issues
Includes Six Party Talks
2019
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Much material on this issue finds its way to the US and other pages, when the emphasis seems to be on state-to-state relations. The exception being the Six-Party Talks which are usually posted here.
for some key documents see 2011 page

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• December
• November
• October
• September
• August
• July
• June
• May
• April
• March
• February
• January

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DECEMBER 2019

• N.Korea's Rocket Launch Pad 'Ready for Use'
  By Cho Yi-jun December 13, 2019 11:14 A missile launch pad along the western coast of North Korea as well as a nuclear test site in Punggye-ri are being refurbished for use again. Satellite photos of North Korea's missile launch pad in Tongchang-ri taken on Dec. 7, when the North announced it had conducted a "very important test," were virtually identical to one taken in July 2018, before promised dismantlement began. During his summit with U.S. President Donald Trump in Singapore in June of last year, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un pledged to shut down the test site and actually dismantled a mobile structure and a testing facility nearby. But the North began rebuilding the facility after a second summit with Trump in February this year collapsed, and the facility is now ready for use. Nick Hansen, a military expert at Stanford University, told VOA that North Korea probably stored the parts in order to reassemble them later. The website 38 North at Johns Hopkins University, meanwhile, said satellite images show the "presence of vehicle tracks in the snow cover" at the Punggye-ri nuclear test facility, which North Korea dramatically blew up in May 2018. A satellite photo of the facility taken on Nov. 18 shows no vehicles or personnel. But another picture from last week shows vehicle tracks and human footprints in the snow that lead to a "small assembly area." "The precise nature of this latest activity is unclear, but does suggest, at the very least, that personnel remain onsite at the complex," it said. [Punggye-ri] [US NK Negotiations] [Stalemate] [Disinformation]

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NOVEMBER 2019

• North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Center: Minor Activity
  A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Peter Makowsky, Frank V. Pabian and Jack Liu Commercial satellite imagery from October and November indicate a low level of activity at North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center, but with no observable indications of reactor operations. The small, cylindrical-shaped containers reported in the Fuel Reception Area of the Radiochemical Laboratory facilities in September, are no longer present. [Yongbyon]
• Tell-Tale Activity Spotted at N.Korean Nuclear Facility
  November 19, 2019 13:29 Tell-tale activities have been spotted in North Korea's Yongbyon nuclear facility strongly suggesting the transport of radioactive materials, according to a U.S. report. The website Beyond Parallel wrote last week that recent satellite imagery of the Yongbyon facility "shows the presence of four specialized railcars that have been associated with the movement of radioactive material in the past." The authors used satellite photos from earlier this month to verify the movements of the railcars and added that the last time such movements were detected was in April this year. [Yongbyon]
• North Korea’s Sohae Satellite Launching Station: Minor Activity at the Horizontal Assembly Building May Be Agricultural
  By: 38 North November 8, 2019 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates no new activity at the Launch Pad or Engine Test Stand at North Korea’s Sohae Satellite Launching Station. Some activity has been observed at the Horizontal Assembly Building, the nature of which is unclear but is likely related to agricultural activities. [Sohae] [Satellite]

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OCTOBER 2019

• Unification minister addresses alleged radiation exposure to N. Korean defectors from Punggye Village
  Posted on : Oct.18,2019 17:37 KST Modified on : Oct.18,2019 17:37 KST Bareunmirae Party lawmaker says Moon admin. hard on Japan but soft on N. Korea Unification Minister Kim Yeon-chul inspects data related to the alleged radiation exposure of North Korean defectors from near the Punggye Village nuclear test site during an audit by the National Assembly’s Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee on Oct. 17. While the Unification Ministry was being audited by the National Assembly’s Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee on Oct. 17, Bareunmirae Party lawmaker Choung Byoung-guk and Unification Minister Kim Yeon-chul got into a take-no-prisoners debate about whether there was a radiation leak at North Korea’s Punggye Village nuclear testing site and, if so, whether North Korean defectors from the village had been exposed to that radiation. The argument had Chung meting out attacks that Kim rebutted before launching a counterattack.
  Kim noted, “In terms of whether radioactivity is leaked into the air, there is a difference between atmospheric testing and underground testing.” “Those cases [of testing in the atmosphere] can’t really be applied to the nuclear tests at Punggye Village,” he argued. Indeed, the results of expert studies by the international community found that all of the cases of civilian exposure found for the test sites cited by Choung – at Semipalatinsk in Kazakhstan and in the US state of Nevada – occurred as a result of open-air testing or underground testing in non-sealed conditions. In contrast, all six of North Korea’s nuclear tests were conducted in sealed underground tunnels. More significantly, none of the five South Korean and US journalists who covered the scene of the Punggye site’s demolition in May 2018 has yet complained of symptoms related to radiation exposure. [Punggye-ri] [Radiation]
• N.Korean Missiles 'May Be Tipped with Guided Warheads'
  By Yu Yong-weon October 16, 2019 13:16 The Japanese Ministry of Defense has floated the possibility of some of North Korea's ballistic missiles being tipped with guided warheads whose homing function is activated in the terminal stage of flight. Posted recently on its website are neatly compiled data on the North's missile activities since leader Kim Jong-un took power. It offers detailed analysis on their functions such as accuracy, maneuverability, ranges and diversified launch platforms. It suggests that some of the North's ballistic missiles are tipped with terminally guided warheads. Other experts have raised the possibility of both short-range and intermediate-range North Korean ballistic missiles being tipped with terminally-guided warheads. They cite an improved version of the Scud-ER with a 1,000 km range as an example. The North unveiled the improved version during a parade on its Army founding day in April 2017. After testing a Hwasong-12 with a 5,000 km range in May 2017, the regime claimed that the missile proved the accuracy of its terminal guidance function and warhead detonation system despite the harsh conditions of re-entry. But South Korean military authorities are skeptical. [Missiles] [Military balance]
• JCS chairman says Punggye Village nuclear test site could be potentially be reused
  Posted on : Oct.9,2019 17:12 KST Modified on : Oct.9,2019 17:12 KST No restoration activities have been detected at site at present South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) Chairman Gen. Park Han-ki takes an oath before a National Assembly National Defense Committee parliamentary audit in Seoul on Oct. 8. (Yonhap News) The Punggye Village nuclear test site in Kilju County, North Hamgyong Province, which North Korea dismantled in May 2018, could be reused with some additional work, South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) Chairman Gen. Park Han-ki said on Oct. 8. North Korea previously used explosions to demolish the second, third, and fourth tunnels at the site, with the first tunnel having previously been shut down following its first nuclear test. But a JCS official said no restoration activities have been detected at the Punggye nuclear test site at present. While appearing at a National Assembly National Defense Committee parliamentary audit that day at the JCS headquarters, Park was asked by Han Tae-keung, a lawmaker with the Bareunmirae Party, whether North Korea would be capable of reusing the nuclear test site at Punggye Village. [Punggye-ri] [Reversibility] [Nuclear test]
• North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Center: Unusual Activity in the Fuel Reception Area
  By: 38 North October 4, 2019Satellite Imagery, WMD A 38 North exclusive with analysis from Peter Makowsky, Frank V. Pabian and Jack Liu Commercial satellite imagery of the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center from the month of September reveals there are numerous white, cylindrical-like containers in the Fuel Reception Area of the Radiochemical Laboratory. The purpose of these objects is unclear. While there are no indications of renewed reactor operations, some minor work in being done to extend the earthen embankment that spans the two pump houses, probably to help mitigate erosion from seasonal flooding. Minor construction projects are underway throughout the rest of the complex, including at the Main Research and Administration Headquarters Area and the engineering office building adjacent to the Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR). The Radiochemical Laboratory Imagery indicates that numerous small, white cylindrical-shaped containers or “packages” are present in the Fuel Reception Area. A large grouping is concentrated in an area near the building itself and several are lined up along the service road to the facility. Commercial satellite imagery alone does not provide sufficient information to determine the purpose of these objects. [Yongbyon]
• Defectors from Nuke Test Area Exposed to Heavy Radiation
  By Kim Myong-song October 02, 2019 12:42 The Unification Ministry has found evidence of severe radiation exposure in 10 North Koreans who defected from the vicinity of North Korea's defunct nuclear test site in Punggye-ri. The ministry tested them and found radioactivity levels in their bodies exceeding 250 mSv, which is enough to trigger chromosomal abnormalities. One 48-year-old woman showed 1,386 mSv of radiation, which drastically raises the chances of cancer. Nuclear industry workers can only be allowed to be exposed to around 50 mSv of radiation a year. The ministry tested the defectors in September of last year but has still not officially announced the results a year later. [Punggye-ri] [Radiation]
• N. Korea fires SBLM hours after saying it would resume talks with US
  Posted on : Oct.2,2019 17:22 KST Modified on : Oct.2,2019 17:22 KST While observers are awaiting the resumption of North Korea-US working-level talks toward denuclearization, North Korea launched a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) off its eastern coast on Oct. 2. The launch occurred just hours after Pyongyang announced its willingness to resume talks with the US. Although North Korea has conducted ten test launches of short-range missiles since May, this is their first launch of a ballistic missile with a range of 1,000 to 3,000km since the Singapore summit last year, making it a significant escalation. South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) released a statement shortly after the launch saying the SBLM is likely the Bukkeukseong-1 (Polaris-1 or KN-11), the same kind North Korea launched on May 9, 2015. {photo shows firing of land-based missile] [SLBM] [Double standards]

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SEPTEMBER 2019

• Nampo Naval Shipyard: Second Submersible Test Stand Barge Likely Operational
  By: 38 North September 26, 2019 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu and Peter Makowsky Commercial satellite imagery of the Nampo Naval Shipyard from September 18 revealed that the second of two submersible test stand barges for North Korea’s submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) program, first observed in 2017 and subsequently refurbished, was berthed at the quay and likely operational.
  While there was no evidence of any test-related activity, a light-colored van was parked on the quay adjacent to the barge. [SLBM] [Intelligence] [Bizarre]
• Underground Areas Identified at the Yongbyon Nuclear Facility: Purpose Unknown
  By: 38 North September 19, 2019 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Frank V. Pabian The international community has long suspected that North Korea has uranium enrichment facilities in addition to the one declared at the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center. Some reports even suggest the presence of underground complexes there allegedly housing such enrichment facilities. Two previously unidentified underground complexes have now been identified at Yongbyon based on the presence of tunnel entrances and visible spoil piles, which have become far less obvious with time. While it is impossible to remotely discern their purposes, their location within Yongbyon’s security perimeter and subsequent camouflaging qualify them as subjects of interest for future inspection teams. [Yongbyon]
• North Korea’s Sohae Satellite Launching Station: Minor Activity
  By: 38 North September 10, 2019 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu Recent commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Sohae Satellite Launching Station indicates no new activity at either the Launch Pad or Vertical Engine Test Stand. Healthy vegetation around the exhaust flame chute indicates no engine tests have taken place in recent weeks. A van that was parked near the VIP Observation Facility in imagery from May 10 is not present in imagery from September 8. No changes are observed at either the Horizontal Assembly Building or the security and administrative area. A small complex west of the National Aerospace Development Administration (NADA) administrative building appears to have been razed and rebuilt between May 8 and September 10.[1] While the purpose of the complex is unknown, the cultivated fields around the complex suggest it may be farming related. [Sohae]
• Korea Postpones Lunar Exploration Project Again
  September 11, 2019 12:53 Korea has postponed a lunar exploration rocket launch once again. The Ministry of Science and ICT said Tuesday it will launch a lunar orbit probe in July 2022, some two years later than originally planned. Last year, the ministry also postponed plans to launch the orbit rocket by two years and a moon lander by 10 years. The lunar project has suffered a rollercoaster fate. The government of President Roh Moo-hyun came up with the idea in 2007. At that time, the plan was to launch a lunar orbit probe in 2020 and a lander in 2025. [Lunar launch] [SLV]
• N.Korea Fires Missiles a Day After Founding Anniversary
  By Yoon Hyung-jun September 10, 2019 11:35 North Korea fired two short-range missiles toward the East Sea on Tuesday, military authorities here said, just hours after it offered to resume talks with the U.S. The Joint Chiefs of Staff said the projectiles were fired at around 7:00 a.m. from South Pyongan Province. Tuesday's was the 10th such launch so far this year. [Missile test] [US NK Negotiations]
• N. Korea launches two unidentified projectiles from S. Pyongan Province
  Posted on : Sep.10,2019 17:23 KST Modified on : Sep.10,2019 17:23 KST The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) has confirmed that North Korean fired two unidentified projectiles from South Pyongan Province on the morning of Sept. 10. The JCS added that it was keeping a close on North Korea for additional launches, and is maintaining its “preparatory stance.” The North undertook nine short-range projectile launches in the period from May 4 to Aug. 24, making this latest launch the 10th. [Missile test]

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AUGUST 2019

• North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Center: Low Level Activity and Flood Management
  By: 38 North August 30, 2019Satellite Imagery, WMD Commercial satellite imagery from the month of August indicates only low levels of activity at the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center with no indicators of reactor operations. Some objects have been placed near the Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR), although their purpose is unclear, and construction is likely underway on the nearby engineering office building. [Yongbyon]
• Korean Light Water Reactor Wins Certification from U.S.
  By Choi Hyun-mook August 28, 2019 09:52 A Korean-made light water reactor has won a design certification from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, according to the Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power on Tuesday. The Korean reactor is the first non-U.S. design to win safety certification from the U.S. agency, which applies some of the strictest standards for nuclear power plants in the world. A KHNP spokesman said this will make it possible for Korea to export nuclear reactors to the U.S., which remains a major nuclear power plant market, as well as helping Korean reactors' reputation for safety around the world. Jung Jae-hoon (right), the president of Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power, poses with Annie Caputo, commissioner of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, in Washington D.C. on Monday. /Courtesy of the KHNP The APR1400 reactor got standard design approval from the NRC in September last year and won certification after an 11-month-long licensing process. Only five U.S. manufacturers, including Westinghouse and GE, have earned NRC certification so far. Even French nuclear group Areva and Japan's Toshiba, a Japanese electronics giant, have so far failed to secure NRC certification. [Nuclear reactors] [Export]
• N.Korea 'Could Easily Restore Blown-up Nuke Site'
  By Cho Yi-jun August 26, 2019 13:20 North Korea could restore a blown-up nuclear test site to its original state or simply develop a new one, a U.S. State Department report has warned. The State Department in a report last week expressed concerns that "it is assessed that the results of the detonations at [the Punggye-ri] nuclear test site on May 24, 2018, are almost certainly reversible." "It is possible that North Korea could develop another nuclear test site if it chose to do so," the report adds. "This, combined with North Korea's failure to permit qualified international inspectors to observe and verify the dismantlement, calls into question North Korea’s long-term commitment to forego further nuclear explosive tests and the broader denuclearization process," it warned. In May last year, right before the first U.S.-North Korea summit, the North allowed reporters to observe the blowup of the test site from a distance but refused to let inspectors verify the event. The U.S. also worries about the possibility of Chinese cooperation in the North's missile development. The report noted that Chinese entities continued to supply good banned under the Missile Technology Control Regime to the North, Iran, Syria, and Pakistan in 2018. "Although the United States has asked that China investigate and put a stop to such activities, most of these cases remain unresolved," it added. [Nuclear test] [Punggye-ri] [Reversibility] [MTCR]
• North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Center: Minimal Activity Observed
  By: 38 North August 2, 2019 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Frank V. Pabian, Jack Liu and Jenny Town Commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center through late July indicates operations have likely continued at the Uranium Enrichment Plant (UEP), while normal vehicular movements and dredging of the Kuryong River continues near the reactors. [Yongbyon]

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JULY 2019

• N.Korea Fires 2 Projectiles off East Coast
  VOA News July 25, 2019 08:17 North Korea fired two projectiles off its east coast, South Korea's military said early Thursday, Pyongyang's latest provocation amid stalled nuclear talks. South Korea's joint chiefs of staff said the projectiles were launched from near North Korea's eastern city of Wonsan and traveled approximately 430 kilometers. They were launched at 5:34 a.m. and 5:57 a.m. The statement by South Korea's joint chiefs of staff did not elaborate what kind of projectiles were launched. If Seoul's estimate is correct, however, it would appear to be a relatively short-range projectile. [Missile test] [Short-range]
• Parties criticize North Korean firing of short-range missiles
  Posted : 2019-07-25 17:35 Updated : 2019-07-25 18:31 Rep. Lee In-young, left, floor leader of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea speaks during a party meeting at the National Assembly, Thursday. Yonhap By Park Ji-won South Korean political parties criticized North Korea's launch of short-range missiles into the East Sea, Thursday, urging the North to stop disturbing the peace. Rep. Lee In-young of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) expressed regret over the launch of the missiles saying it "escalates military tensions." "The government and ruling party strongly objects to any military provocations in any situation. We urge the north not to stop the peaceful momentum created by the historic Panmunjeom Declaration," he added. [Missile tests]
• North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: No Change in Status
  By: 38 North July 19, 2019 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Frank V. Pabian and Jack Liu Commercial satellite imagery from early July indicates that, while the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site has not been abandoned, there is no activity around the test tunnels (portals) or Command Center. Personnel movement around the Main Administrative Support Area has been evident including indications that vegetables are being grown in the greenhouse area. While no activity has been observed around the Command Center, the area continues to be well maintained since the test site was shut down in May 2018. [Punggye-ri]

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JUNE 2019

• Turkey and Nuclear Command, Control and Communications
  Can Kasapoglu June 27, 2019 I. Introduction In this essay, Can Kasapoglu argues that in contrast to the other four NATO “nuclear delivery states (Belgium, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands, Turkey), Turkey no longer appears to have an active nuclear weapons delivery mission using bombers and its NC3 system is likely dormant. “Yet,” he concludes, “in a hypothetical TNW scenario, the Turkish Air Force would manage the Incirlik base and air traffic for the US air wing, and would probably provide the strike package with fighter escort. In fact, the strong separation between active combat (the US) and support roles (Turkey) could be a complicating factor for the NC3 in real warfighting situations.” [Turkey] [NC3]
• N.Korea 'Has Built 10 More Nukes'
  By Cho Yi-jun June 18, 2019 10:07 North Korea has produced about a dozen more nuclear weapons over the past year, a Swedish think tank speculates. In a report on Monday, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimated that the North had 20 to 30 nuclear warheads as of January this year, an increase of about 10 over last year's estimated number. It said the North "continues to prioritize its military nuclear programme as a central element of its national security strategy, although in 2018 it announced a moratorium on the testing of nuclear weapons as well as medium- and long-range ballistic missile delivery systems." Worldwide there were a total of 13,864 nuclear weapons as of January, down 601 on-year, it added. Yet U.S. President Donald Trump, asked by ABC News on Sunday if the North is still building nuclear weapons, said, "I don't know" and added, "I hope not." North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, "promised me he wouldn't be testing" nuclear weapons, he added. [Warheads] [Sipri]
• Modifications to North Korea’s Taechon Reactor Site
  By: 38 North June 14, 2019 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Frank V. Pabian Recent commercial satellite imagery confirms a June 6, 2019 German media (Die Welt) report of notable improvements to the previously abandoned Taechon reactor[1] site support infrastructure since 2015, as well as other modifications and activity dating as far back as 2004. However, the Die Welt suggestion that this observed activity might be an indication of DPRK intent to restart construction of the 200 MWe reactor is less probable than other possible explanations, particularly given the lack of changes to the derelict reactor proper or its adjacent generator hall. Alternatively, preparations in advance of potential international inspections or the “signaling” of a threat of reconstruction would seem more likely at this time. The Recent Improvements Improvements to the Taechon reactor site support infrastructure, as first noted in the Die Welt article, include three new buildings constructed between early 2017 and late 2018. A two-story engineering office building and a one-story support building are located within the engineering office area. In addition, a few small sheds have been built, and roads and pathways serving those specific areas and an adjacent engineering workshop area have been paved. Nearby, a three-section building remains incomplete. [US NK Negotiations] [Stalemate] [Nuclear reactor] [Reversibility]
• North Korea’s Sinpo South Shipyard: Continuing Submarine Construction and Minor Improvements at the Secure Boat Basin
  By: 38 North June 12, 2019 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu and Peter Makowsky Recent commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Sinpo South Shipyard indicates continuing submarine construction of possibly another SINPO-class ballistic missile submarine, as evidenced by movement of parts and equipment in the staging area adjacent to the construction halls. Figure 1. Movement of parts and equipment indicate ongoing construction of a new submarine. Additionally, minor improvements are being made to the secure boat basin, including the installation of 12 probable davit arm cranes spaced at regular intervals along much of the quay sometime between April 11 and May 5. These cranes would facilitate loading lightweight supplies and equipment down the hatches of the submarine and onto the submersible launch barge. [SLBM] [Sinpo]
• North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Center: Continuing Activity at the Uranium Enrichment Plant
  By: 38 North June 5, 2019 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Frank V. Pabian, Jack Liu and Jenny Town Recent commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center indicates that operations at the Uranium Enrichment Plant (UEP) remain ongoing, while there is only minimal significant activity throughout the rest of the complex. River dredging continues, as we have reported previously, and we also note the addition earlier this year of an elevated conduit at the Radioisotope Production Facility (RPF) that connects the RPF to two nearby industrial type buildings. [Yongbyon]
• N.Korean Underground Missile Facility Nearing Completion
  By Yang Seung-sik, Yu Yong-weon June 03, 2019 13:05 North Korea is on the verge of completing construction of an underground facility at a solid-propellant missile plant in Hamhung, South Hamgyong Province. The North assembles and stores missile fuselages and engines in various underground facilities, dodging South Korean and U.S. surveillance. "We've detected the completion of a new large underground facility, or expansion of an existing facility, outside the perimeter of the Hamhung missile plant," a military spokesman here said on Friday. The Hamhung plant has been growing for several years and came into the spotlight last July when the regime was engaged in denuclearization talks with the U.S. Images from Google Earth show stages of the construction process of the underground facility northwest of the plant. In images from July last year, building materials and dirt were piled up near the presumed entrance, and dirt was piled up on the access road. [Nuclear capability]

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MAY 2019

• Prior to the Cold War: US Nuclear Plans Entailed Blowing Up Hundreds of Chinese, Soviet and Eastern European Cities
  By Shane Quinn Global Research, May 28, 2019 On 30 August 1945, Major General Lauris Norstad dispatched a document to his superior, General Leslie Groves, outlining a total of 15 “key Soviet cities” to be struck with US atomic weapons, headed by the capital Moscow. This was followed by another 25 “leading Soviet cities” listed for annihilation, topping this latter group was Leningrad, almost destroyed during the Nazi siege finally lifted in late January 1944. The above nuclear plans were being composed three days before the Second World War had even officially concluded (on 2 September 1945), and a mere two weeks following Japan’s surrender. These initiatives, targeting the USSR for destruction, were actually developing at least as early as March 1944, at a time when Moscow was a vital wartime ally. Due to ongoing Soviet intelligence reports, Stalin was privy to America’s nuclear project most certainly by April 1942, but quite likely earlier. Meanwhile, Japan’s political leaders were compelled to surrender on 15 August 1945, after the US military threatened to drop more atomic weapons over the country. This would have just been feasible, with the Pentagon holding a further two atomic bombs in its stockpile during the latter part of 1945. In the days stretching beyond late August 1945, Groves’ and Norstad’s schemes of ruin were enlarging. On 15 September 1945, a highly classified document relating to their plan expounded in stark tones that, “The immediate destruction of the enemy’s will [USSR] and capacity to resist is the primary objective of the United States Army Strategic Air Forces”, to be focused upon “the enemy centers of industry, transportation and population”. That same day, 15 September 1945, Groves and Norstad estimated that over five dozen Soviet metropolises, 66 altogether, should be obliterated with 204 atomic bombs – a “revolutionary” weapon which was “spectacularly successful” in desolating Hiroshima and Nagasaki. It was calculated that these 66 cities held 100% of the Soviet Union’s aluminium production, 97% of its tanks, 95% of its aircraft, 95% of its oil refining capacity, etc. [Russia confrontation] [First strike] [Cold War] [Nuclear strategy]
• Fresh Guess at N.Korea's Nuclear Warheads Offered
  By Yoon Hyung-jun May 20, 2019 10:25 A private U.S. think tank has offered yet another guess at the number of nuclear warheads North Korea might possess and has alighted on 20. In a report released last week, the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments estimates that North Korea is the world's eighth nuclear-armed state after the U.S., Russia, China, the U.K., France, Pakistan, and India. Israel, which has a substantial nuclear arsenal but denies it, was excluded from the count. The center said North Korea "has produced enough material for 30-60 warheads, but has probably only assembled 10-20 warheads." Grouping nuclear powers into three tiers, the center said the U.S. and Russia have 3,800 and 4,490 nuclear warheads, which make them major powers, while those with 130 to 300 rank in the middle. But it added, "It would not take much for North Korea to develop an arsenal comparable in size to the lower end of the middle tier." [Warheads] [Military balance] [Banality] [Intelligence]
• Expert Warns Gov't Over Silence on N.Korea's Missile Tests
  By Yoon Hyung-jun May 17, 2019 12:11 The South Korean government's silence in the face of North Korea's recent missile tests amounts to condoning them, a security expert warned Thursday. Kim Bo-mi at the institute for National Intelligence Service said in a report, "A silent response to North Korea's continued military activities is very dangerous, since it could send the wrong signal to the North that the international community condones short-range missile launches." When the North launched an Iskander-class missile on May 4, South Korean government and military officials claimed that the weapon was by some convoluted reckoning not a missile. The U.S. and Japan, which are seeking to engage the North in dialogue, also refrained from any strongly worded condemnation. Then a North Korean official was quoted by the official [North] Korean News Agency as claiming the international community agreed that the latest missile launch was not a "violation" of UN resolutions. "North Korea wrongly concluded that the U.S. and Japan condoned the short-range missile launch," Kim said. The North's launch of another Iskander-class missile the following day supports the theory. "We need to come up with firmer responses so North Korea does not get the wrong message that its provocation has been condoned," Kim added. She said North Korea is trying "to obtain appeasement from South Korea and the U.S. while stressing its military readiness by publicizing its leader Kim Jong-un's latest visits to military bases and shooting exercises." [Missile test] [NIS] [MISCOM]
• North Korea’s Sohae Satellite Launching Station: Construction at the Horizontal Assembly Building
  By: 38 North May 16, 2019 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu Recent commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Sohae Satellite Launching Station indicates that no new activity has been observed at the engine test stand or launch pad since March 8. However, low levels of activity have been observed at other areas that suggest continued improvements to the complex. [Sohae] [SLV]
• New N.Korean Missile Base Spotted
  By Ahn Jun-yong May 13, 2019 09:17 A U.S. think tank has spotted a hitherto unknown North Korean missile base in Yusang-ri in South Pyongan Province. In a report last Thursday, the Center for Strategic and International Studies said the Yusang-ri base might be an intercontinental ballistic missile storage facility. The facility was discovered first by South Korean and U.S. authorities a few years ago, but no details were available. The report on the website Beyond Parallel analyzes the Yusang-ri base within North Korea's missile belt in South Pyongan Province with the help of satellite data. It is the fourth North Korean missile base the website has exposed after Sakkanmol, Sino-ri, and Sangnam-ri since last November. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (center) watches a missile test through binoculars on May 9, in this photo from the [North] Korean Central News Agency. According to the report, the Yusang-ri base "sits 63 kilometers northeast of Pyongyang, 150 kilometers north of the demilitarized zone, [and] 220 kilometers northeast of Seoul." [Missile site] [Intelligence] [Pushback]
• Can N.Korea's New Missile Be Shot Down?
  By Yu Yong-weon May 13, 2019 12:48 South Korea was confused last week whether it would be able to shoot down the short-range Iskander-class missiles North Korea tested. A Defense Ministry official on Sunday said it would. "The latest Patriot PAC-3 MSE anti-missile system operated by U.S. troops in South Korea is capable of shooting down North Korea's latest missile." He added the South Korea military plans to deploy PAC-3 MSE systems starting in 2021. A missile is fired from a launcher in Kusong, North Pyongan Province on Thursday, in this grab from [North] Korean Central Television. The Patriot PAC-3 CRI anti-missile systems currently in use by the South Korean and U.S. militaries can engage targets at a maximum altitude of 15 to 20 km, while the Patriot PAC-3 MSE systems can engage targets flying up to an altitude of 40 km. But a military source said Iskander missiles can engage in evasive maneuvers at an altitude of less than 15 to 20 km. "At an altitude of more than 20 km, Iskander missiles move in the same trajectory as typical ballistic missiles and are capable of being shot down," he added. North Korea's Iskander missiles, which are based on the Russian version that was developed in the 2000s specifically aimed at thwarting the U.S. missile defense system, reach a maximum altitude of 40 to 50 km. But it is unclear if the U.S. conducted interception tests on missiles engaging in evasive maneuvers at that altitude when it developed the MSE system. The engagement ceiling of the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense battery deployed by U.S. Forces Korea is also too low. Although government officials say USFK's Patriot PAC-3 MSE system can be used, its purpose is to defend U.S. military bases here, while Seoul's own system will not arrive until 2021, leaving the South vulnerable in the meantime. [Iskander] [Military balance] [Missile defense]
• New N.Korean Missile Threaten S.Korea
  By O Youn-hee May 13, 2019 10:59 The missiles North Korea launched on May 4 and 9 probably pose a direct threat to South Korea, U.S. experts said. According to Voice of America on Saturday, Jonathan McDowell at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics speculated that they have a range somewhere between 400 and 500 km. He claimed the test launches targeted South Korea. "It is positioned as a defensive retaliatory capability" against the combined forces of South Korea and the U.S. All South Korea except Jeju Island falls within range. The missiles may be capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. The warhead is an estimated 95 cm in diameter, similar to a Russian Iskander-class missile, according to Jeffrey Lewis at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies. He said that the warhead of the KN-08 surface-to-surface intercontinental ballistic missile mockup North Korea displayed in March 2016 "was about 60 cm in diameter and probably weighed a few kilograms." "I would regard that as a credible design and that would definitely fit on this," he added. [Iskander] [Retaliation]
• Experts See Russia Fingerprints on N.Korea's New Missile
  VOA News May 11, 2019 08:07 The three new missiles North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has tested over the past week are eerily familiar to military experts: They look just like a controversial and widely copied missile the Russian military has deployed to Syria and has been actively trying to sell abroad for years. [Missile test] [Iskander]
• North Korea fires two projectiles speculated to be missiles: South Korea
  Posted : 2019-05-10 15:22 Updated : 2019-05-10 15:22 This May 4 file photo from North Korea's state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) shows a rocket fired from a large-caliber long-range multiple rocket launcher. KCNA-Yonhap By Jung Da-min North Korea launched two suspected missiles Thursday, five days after firing off multiple "projectiles" including its new tactical guided weapon, widely agreed by experts to be a short range ballistic missile (SRBM). The launches took place at 4:29 p.m. and 4: 49 p.m., respectively, from around Kusong in North Pyongan Province and landed in the seas off its east coast, according to the Republic of Korea Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS). The JCS said one flew about 270 kilometers and the other, 420 kilometers, both at an altitude of around 50 kilometers. [Missile test]
• N. Korea fires off unidentified projectiles
  Posted : 2019-05-09 16:51 Updated : 2019-05-09 17:12 South Korea's military says North Korea has fired at least one unidentified projectile from its western area. It's the second such launch in the last five days. The South's Joint Chiefs of Staff had no other immediate details of the Thursday afternoon launch. North Korea and the United States are currently deadlocked in diplomacy meant to rid the North of its nuclear arsenal. The launch came hours after the North through its state media described its earlier firing of rocket artillery and an apparent short-range ballistic missile on Saturday as a regular and defensive military exercise and ridiculed South Korea for criticizing the launches. (AP) [Missile test]
• North Korea Fires Another Projectile, South’s Military Says
  By Choe Sang-Hun May 9, 2019 SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea fired a projectile toward the east on Thursday, its second weapons test in less than a week, the South Korean military said. North Korea fired several short-range projectiles off its east coast on Saturday. They flew 70 to 200 kilometers before landing in the sea between North Korea and Japan, the South Korean military said then in a statement. The launchings come just months after the North’s leader, Kim Jong-un, met for the second time with President Trump, hoping to win relief from punishing sanctions in return for a partial dismantlement of his country’s nuclear weapons program. But that meeting, in Hanoi, Vietnam, collapsed after Mr. Trump refused to lift sanctions until North Korea relinquished all its nuclear weapons. Thursday’s projectile was launched from Sino-ri, about 50 miles northwest of Pyongyang, the North Korean capital, the South Korean military said in a statement. It gave no further details, including what type of weapon was launched or how far the projectile flew. Sino-ri is home to a North Korean missile base. North Korea on Saturday shot between 10 and 20 short-range projectiles, including rockets fired from multiple-launch tubes, and what analysts said appeared to be a new short-range ballistic missile, according to South Korean lawmakers briefed by military officials. [Missile test]

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APRIL 2019

• U.S. Spy Plane Scrambled as N.Korea Tests Weapon
  By Yang Seung-sik April 22, 2019 09:37 A U.S. spy plane was scrambled over the Seoul metropolitan area after North Korea tested what it said was a new tactical guided weapon last week. The RC-135W Rivet Joint A South Korean military officer on Sunday said the RC-135W Rivet Joint has seldom flown over the Seoul area but normally stuck to the West Sea and nearby areas. The last time it was scrambled over Seoul was when the North conducted a series of missile tests in 2017. Over two days, the RC-135W Rivet Joint covered an area from Seongnam in Gyeonggi Province and Incheon to Chuncheon, Gangwon Province, south of the no-fly zone set up under a cross-border military agreement signed in September last year. The plane chiefly captures remote signals generated when a ballistic missile is fired. The new weapon the North fired last Wednesday is thought to have been a short-range missile. . [Test] [USFK]
• North Korea's tactical weapon test does not involve ballistic missile
  Posted : 2019-04-21 17:22 Updated : 2019-04-21 17:27 A mock North Korean Scud-B missile, left, and South Korean missiles are displayed at the Korea War Memorial in Seoul, April 18. North Korea said April 18 it had test-fired a new type of "tactical guided weapon" the day before, its first such test in nearly half a year. AP-Yonhap By Jung Da-min North Korea's recent test launch of its new tactical weapon wasn't of a ballistic missile but was believed to be a "weapon for ground combat," military analysts said Sunday. They said a recent weapons test announced by North Korea wasn't a ballistic missile given that there were no alarming announcements from the United States, Japan or Seoul. Rather, they speculated that the recent test could have involved "anything" from a small anti-tank missile to relatively routine artillery as the test of ballistic missiles or surface-to-ship missiles would have been detected by radar. [Test] [Intelligence]
• Seoul, Washington Stumped by N.Korean Missile Launch
  By Cho Yi-jun, Yang Seung-sik, Yoon Hyung-jun April 19, 2019 11:07 The U.S., South Korea and Japan are scrambling to identify a "tactical guided weapon" that North Korea tested on Wednesday in a launch that seems to have taken all three by surprise. Experts said it was probably a short-range missile, which would mark the end of North Korea's moratorium on nuclear and missile tests. "We are closely analyzing what the new weapon was," a military spokesman here said without elaborating. [Test] [Hanoi summit] [Abortion] [Warning] [Intelligence]
• North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Center: What Do Specialized Railcars Mean?
  By: 38 North April 19, 2019 Recent commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center indicates the presence and movement of specialized railcars between April 12 and 15. While speculation over the purpose of these railcars has focused heavily on the past appearances around the time of reprocessing campaigns to extract plutonium for nuclear weapons (last observed in March 2018), it is important to note that they can serve a number of purposes other than transporting radioactive materials. [Yongbyon] [Media] [Intelligence]
• Pentagon Slams Door On Nuclear Weapons Stockpile Transparency
  The Pentagon has decided not to disclose how many nuclear warheads it keeps in its stockpile, such as this W76 thermonuclear ballistic missile warhead. Posted on Apr.17, 2019 in Arms Control, Nuclear Notebook, Nuclear Weapons, Secrecy, United States by Hans M. Kristensen By Hans M. Kristensen The Pentagon has decided not to disclose the current number of nuclear weapons in the Defense Department’s nuclear weapons stockpile. The decision, which came as a denial of a request from FAS’s Steven Aftergood for declassification of the 2018 nuclear weapons stockpile number, reverses the U.S. practice from the past nine years and represents an unnecessary and counterproductive reversal of nuclear policy. The United States in 2010 for the first time declassified the entire history of its nuclear weapons stockpile size, a decision that has since been used by officials to support U.S. non-proliferation policy by demonstrating U.S. adherence to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), providing transparency about U.S. nuclear weapons policy, counter false rumors about secretly building up its nuclear arsenal, and to encourage other nuclear-armed states to be more transparent about their arsenals. [Nuclear weapons]
• N.Korea 'Building New Ballistic Missile Submarine'
  By Yang Seung-sik, Yu Yong-weon April 05, 2019 13:42 North Korea is building a new 3,000-ton submarine capable of launching ballistic missiles, a senior military spokesman here said Thursday. "A large quantity of components presumably needed to build a 3,000-ton sub, which the North has been developing, have turned up recently at a shipyard in Sinpo, South Hamgyong Province," the spokesman said. "We've also spotted a floating dock deployed off Sinpo, apparently for a missile test." Google Earth satellite imagery from March 2 shows piles of cylindrical components and materials presumed to be submarine bulkheads at the shipyard. None of them can be seen in satellite imagery from August last year. Pictures also show that the facilities are well-maintained there and the floating dock, which was previously moored at the pier, is now floating offshore. "This suggests that the North has kept building a new sub and testing a submarine-launched ballistic missile," he said. Construction seems to have been going on even as North Korea was in denuclearization talks with the U.S. This combined photo of Google Earth satellite images from August 2018 and March 2019 shows new objects (dotted) at a shipyard in Sinpo, South Hamgyong Province. The North's existing 2,000-ton sub is capable of carrying only one ballistic missile, but the new sub could deploy three or four. Russian models can carry up to 12. That would drastically increase the North's strategic strike capability, and any launch would be hard to detect. The new sub could travel into the Pacific and strike U.S. bases in Guam or Hawaii armed with the latest Pukguksong-3 SLBMs with a range of more than 2,000 km. "In theory, the new sub could travel across the Pacific and turn up in waters off the U.S. west coast," he added. Meanwhile, Gen. Terrence O'Shaughnessy, the commander of the U.S. Northern Command, said in a hearing at a U.S Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Wednesday that the North's deployment of intercontinental ballistic missiles is "imminent" and it is almost certain that they are designed for an attack on the U.S. mainland. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un "declared the completion of his nuclear ICBM research and development program [in 2017], implying the production and deployment of these systems would soon follow," O'Shaughnessy said. Kim "developed these strategic weapons to deter the U.S. from overthrowing his regime, and he almost certainly has plans to use them against our homeland should a conflict erupt on the peninsula," he added. [SLBM] [Pushback]
• North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center: Crane Seen at the Experimental Light Water Reactor
  By: 38 North April 5, 2019 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Frank V. Pabian and Jack Liu Recent commercial satellite imagery of the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center indicated the presence of a boom crane at the Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR) next to the fuel cask transloading port on March 22. The crane was not present in imagery from March 19 and had been moved away from the ELWR by March 28. The exact purpose is unclear based on imagery alone. The crane may have been used to load equipment or materials into the reactor dome, to support work on the vent stack or some other maintenance related activity. [Yongbyon]

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MARCH 2019

• New Mid-Range Missile Fired by Accident
  By Yu Yong-weon March 19, 2019 13:13 A new homegrown medium-range surface-to-air missile took off by accident during maintenance at an Air Force unit in Chuncheon, Gangwon Province on Monday and blew up in midair. The Cheongung was developed at a cost of W800 billion to replace the old Hawk missile and has been deployed warfare-ready since 2015 (US$1=W1,133). An Air Force spokesman said the missile was fired "abnormally" and self-destroyed in midair over a nearby area at around 10:30 Monday morning. An object (red-circled) which appears to be a missile goes up into the sky in Chuncheon, Gangwon Province on Monday. /Yonhap Luckily the missile is designed to self-destroy if anything out of the ordinary happens during the launch in order to avoid a "Dr. Strangelove" scenario. Still, each missile costs W1.5 billion. "We understand that the missile was fired even though the button was not pushed," the spokesman added. No damage to people or property was reported. The Air Force has launched an investigation to find out what caused the accident. Amateur footage of the accident shows a zig-zagging vapor trail before the missile exploded, like a fireworks howler taking off. A military officer said, "The zigzag trajectory suggests that it was fired without a target being set." The Cheongung is supposedly capable of hitting an incoming aircraft some 40 km away at a speed of Mach 4.5. Each launch pad consists of eight missiles, which can be fired at an interval of only a few seconds. The prototype did hit a target about 40 km away with pinpoint accuracy during the first live-fire test in November 2017. An improved version, which is capable of hitting an incoming ballistic missile at an altitude of 20 km, has also been developed and is ready for deployment. [Missile] [SAM]
• North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Complex: No Sign of Operations
  By: 38 North March 15, 2019Satellite Imagery, WMD A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Frank V. Pabian, Jack Liu, and Peter Makowsky. Recent commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center indicates that the 5 MWe reactor and the experimental light water reactor (ELWR) show no clear signs of operations. Dredging operations continue at various points along the river with crane/excavators sometimes observed as well. Figure 1. The 5 MWe Reactor and the ELWR show little change since February 21. At the Uranium Enrichment Plant (UEP), what appeared to be a white tanker trailer arrived near the west end of the complex sometime between February 11 and 21 and remains in place. Additionally, a vehicle or small truck and what appears to be a cylindrical metal object were observed on March 7, but were gone by March 12. The purpose of these vehicles and equipment is unclear. [Yongbyon]
• North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: No Activity Spotted
  By: 38 North March 15, 2019 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Frank V. Pabian and Jack Liu. Recent commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site shows no activity around the former tunnel portal areas. There are no signs of site restoration or vehicles tracking in the snow. Only a few minor personnel tracks can be observed in the vicinity of the old Administrative Support Area. [Punggye-ri]
• Seoul on Alert as N.Korea Prepares Missile Launch
  By Yu Yong-weon March 12, 2019 11:02 South Korea is closely monitoring North Korea for any preparations for a missile launch at its newly reopened missile test site, the Joint Chiefs of Staff said Monday. Asked about activity at a missile assembly plant in Sanum-dong in the suburbs of Pyongyang, JCS spokesman Kim Joon-rak told reporters that the JCS is "keeping its eyes on all the possibilities." That includes monitoring the missile launch site in Tongchang-ri with the help of a U.S. surveillance satellite. The military here is chiefly dependent on the U.S. Forces Korea's spy planes and satellite images because the targets are located north of Pyongyang a long way from the demilitarized zone. Last Friday, reports said that a rocket seemed to have been moved by train from Sanum-dong to Tongchang-ri. Back in 2012 and 2016, the North also moved booster rockets from Sanum-dong to Tongchang-ri by train before it launched two long-range rockets that were prototypes for intercontinental ballistic missiles. But it was not clear what was on the train and whether the regime actually moved rockets to Tongchang-ri because the cars were covered with tarpaulin. "The North laid a railroad to an underground tunnel at the Tongchang-ri test site several years ago, making it difficult for even the U.S. spy satellite to snoop," a government source here said. [Satellite-missile] [Pushback]
• N.Korea 'Preparing for Missile Launch'
  By Yang Seung-sik March 11, 2019 09:19 North Korea seems to be moving a missile to an assembly plant in Sanum-dong in the suburbs of Pyongyang, U.S. media reported last week. The site was used to assemble the Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile and other ostensible space rockets that were in fact prototypes of intercontinental ballistic missiles. The report comes after the regime was spotted restoring the Tongchang-ri missile test site it had promised U.S. President Donald Trump to dismantle. Commercial satellite images show trucks presumed to be carrying rocket components parked in Sanum-dong, and rail cars that also seem to be carrying them to Tongchang-ri ready in a nearby rail yard, as well as two cranes. Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey said, "When you put all that together, that's really what it looks like when the North Koreans are in the process of building a rocket." "We're seeing a lot of vehicle activity at the Sanum-dong facility and also at the rail transfer point where it would be loaded and taken" to Tongchang-ri, he added. "I can definitely say the train has left the station," said Melissa Hanham, a U.S. North Korea expert. "But I can't unfortunately use X-ray vision to see what's on the train and tell whether it's a civilian space launch vehicle or a military ICBM." The North has warned it now has to find its own way, suggesting it could resume nuclear and missile tests, since the collapse of the failed North Korea-U.S. summit Hanoi. Shin Jong-woo of the Korea Defense and Security Forum said, "This is proof that the regime has worked out a Plan B dialing up the threat of Tongchang-ri to the maximum at the next negotiation table." [ICBM] [Satellite-missile] [Hanoi summit] [Abortion] [Satellite]
• N.Korea Restores Missile Launch Site It Promised to Scrap
  By Yoon Hyung-jun March 07, 2019 09:40 North Korea is restoring a missile test site it promised to scrap last year now that a summit with the U.S. has collapsed, according to a report. "North Korea is pursuing a rapid rebuilding of the long-range rocket site" at Tongchang-ri, the Center for Strategic and International Studies said on its website. It bases the conclusion on commercial satellite imagery from March 2. The website 38 North at Johns Hopkins University also said the North seems to have started rebuilding some facilities at Tongchang-ri between Feb. 16 and March 2. [Sohae] [Hanoi summit] [Abortion] [SLV] [Media] [Satellite-missile]
• Airbus, OneWeb aim for new satellite era with first launch
  Eric M. Johnson, Tim Hepher A rocket carrying six satellites built by Airbus SE and partner OneWeb blasted off from French Guiana on Wednesday, the first step in a plan to give millions of people in remote and rural areas high-speed internet beamed down from space. The Arianespace Soyuz rocket carrying six satellites built by Airbus SE and partner OneWeb blasts off from the launch pad in Kourou, French Guiana, February 27, 2019. Service Optique CSG/©ESA/CNES/ARIANESPACE/Handout via REUTERS A successful launch could mark a new era in the satellite services industry. Companies like Elon Musk’s SpaceX, LeoSat Enterprises, and Canada’s Telesat are working to enable data networks with hundreds or even thousands of tiny satellites that orbit closer to Earth than traditional communications satellites, a radical shift made possible by leaps in laser technology and computer chips [Satellites] [Communications]

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FEBRUARY 2019

• North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Facility: No Indications Plutonium Production Reactor Is Operating
  By: 38 North February 22, 2019Satellite Imagery, WMD A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Frank V. Pabian and Jack Liu. Commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center from February 2019 indicates that despite recent assertions that the 5 MWe reactor is running, there are no obvious indicators that it or the Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR) are operating. [Yongbyon]
• N.Korea Keeps Building Monuments to Missile Tests
  By Yang Seung-sik February 15, 2019 12:01 North Korea last year built massive monuments where it test-launched an intercontinental ballistic missile and a medium-range ballistic missile. The regime has been building monuments to these achievements since 2017, when regional tensions were at a peak after a series of North Korean missile tests. "We've found that the North has built monuments at more than four missile test sites," a military source here said Thursday. The projects continued even when denuclearization talks gained traction. The latest monuments were built in Kusong, North Pyongan Province, where the Pukguksong-2 mid-range missile was test-launched in February 2017, and in Jonchon, Jagang Province, where a second test-launch of the Hwasong-14 long-range missile was conducted in July the same year. The monuments consist of big slabs of text extolling the missile launches. David Schmerler, an analyst at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in the U.S., in March last year published images of launch sites in Pyongsong, South Pyongan Province, and Kusong, North Pyongan Province, where he claimed the North built monuments in celebration of the successful launch of the Hwasong-14 and 15 ICBMs. [ICBM] [Deterrent] [Double standards]

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JANUARY 2019

• North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Facilities: Well Maintained but Showing Limited Operations
  By: 38 North January 9, 2019 A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Frank V. Pabian and Jack Liu Commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center from December 2018 indicates that while the site remains operational and is still well maintained, the main facilities do not appear to be operating. The one possible exception is the Uranium Enrichment Plant (UEP), although if it is operating, in what capacity remains unclear. [Yongbyon]
• N.Korea 'Could Acquire 100 Nuclear Warheads by 2020'
  By Cho Yi-jun, Ahn Jun-yong December 31, 2018 13:13 North Korea could acquire up to 100 warheads by 2020 despite stopping nuclear and missile tests this year, NBC quoted an expert as speculating Friday. "North Korea continues to produce fissile material and develop missile bases around the country, according to experts and analysis of detailed satellite images," NBC said. "At the current rate of production, North Korea could have around 100 warheads by 2020 -- almost half the size of the U.K.'s stockpile," it quoted Robert Litwak of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington as saying. South Korean and U.S. intelligence agencies believe that the North currently has 20 to 60 nuclear warheads. "Kim has not changed his policy... but claims that he's now moved from research-and-development and onto mass production," said Cristina Varriale of the Royal United Services Institute in London. In his New Year's Day address last year, Kim said, "The nuclear weapons research sector and the rocket industry should mass-produce nuclear warheads and ballistic missiles." The implication is that Kim is continuing his nuclear buildup, while buying time through diplomacy with South Korea and the U.S. Meanwhile Ted Poe, the chairman of the U.S. House Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and Trade, told Congress that the West's maximum pressure policy "appears at risk due to South Korea's dovish president." President Moon Jae-in's "separate diplomatic maneuvers and premature offers of economic opportunities are likely encouraging the Kim regime to slow negotiations and steps towards denuclearization," he added according to Voice of America on Friday. "If Kim sees weakness in our South Korean allies that he can use to chip away at the current sanctions on his regime, he will continue to stall negotiations and our leverage will begin to collapse. President Moon must not be deceived by Kim’s small gestures of goodwill and prematurely fold," Poe warned. [Warheads] [Pushback]
• N.Korea Tests Missile Transmission Signals
  By Lee Ha-won, Ahn Jun-yong December 31, 2018 09:56 North Korea conducted a telemetry test early this month that usually precedes ballistic missile launches, Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun daily reported Sunday. That has raised fears that North Korea may soon resume test launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles it had vowed to halt in April this year. /Newsis North Korea conducted several telemetry tests prior to some 40 missile test launches from 2016 to 2017. The tests are seen as precursors to ballistic missile launches and prompted monitoring by South Korea, the U.S. and Japan. An intelligence source here said, "We have also detected the telemetry signals but have yet to detect any signs of an impending missile test." However, the U.S. and the international community are growing increasingly concerned about North Korea's continued nuclear weapons and missile developments as dialogue remains deadlocked. [Hypocrisy] [Missile] [Pushback]

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