Satellite and Nuclear Issues
Includes Six Party Talks
2020
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Much material on this issue finds its way to the US and other pages, when the emphasis seems to be on state-to-state relations. The exception being the Six-Party Talks which are usually posted here.
for some key documents see 2011 page
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AUGUST 2020
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Fears of Flood Damage to N.Korean Nuclear Reactor
By Kim Myong-song
August 14, 2020 10:00
Part of North Korea's Yongbyon nuclear complex may have been damaged as the Kuryong River overflowed its banks, according to the website 38 North at Johns Hopkins University on Wednesday.
The website warned that flood waters reached the pump houses that send cooling water into the 5 MW nuclear reactor there, which could at least mean that it had to be shut down.
This combined satellite image from July 22 (top) and Aug. 6 from the website 38 North shows the Kuryong River in Yongbyon flooding its banks to reach the base of a pump house.
"The August 6 imagery, when compared to imagery from July 22, shows a dramatic rise in the water level," it said, and "reveals significant flooding along the Kuryong River, perhaps the worst in the past several years."
"Despite ongoing efforts to improve the embankment along the river against annual flooding, they failed to meet the challenge of this year's rising waters."
Satellite images show the floodwaters reaching the base of the pump houses that supply cooling water to the reactor.
"Damage to the pumps and piping within the pump houses presents the biggest vulnerability to the reactors. If the reactors were operating, for instance, the inability to cool them would require them to be shut down," 38 North said. "And while the river waters may recede rapidly, if damaged, the pumps themselves could be out of service for some time."
It added that the service channels "were probably not damaged."
A former government official here said, "The Yongbyon facility is so dilapidated that it has always been exposed to a risk of accidents.
[Yongbyon] [Flooding]
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House Democrats vote to block funding for nuclear weapons tests
By: Joe Gould
WASHINGTON ― No funding would be available for live nuclear weapons testing under an amendment the House adopted to its version of the annual defense policy bill.
The amendment from Rep. Ben McAdams, D-Utah, was adopted, 227-179, in a mostly party-line vote. The House is expected to vote Tuesday to pass the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act.
The amendment marks the second rebuke of the Trump administration amid reports it’s mulling a resumption of nuclear weapons testing for the first time since 1992. The House Appropriations Committee passed a similar ban earlier this month.
The amendment’s adoption will likely make it harder for House Republicans to vote for the House’s FY21 NDAA, and it creates a roadblock for negotiations to reconcile the House and Senate versions of the bill.
The Senate Armed Services Committee’s version of the NDAA set aside $10 million to speed up preparations in case the U.S. decides to resume nuclear testing. Since 1992, the U.S. has relied on simulations and non-explosive testing to assess the health and capabilities of the nuclear arsenal.
“Explosive nuclear testing is not necessary to ensure our stockpile remains safe and nothing in this amendment would change that,” McAdams said in a floor speech ahead of the vote. “Explosive nuclear testing causes irreparable harm to human health and to our environment. and jeopardizes the U.S. leadership role on nuclear nonproliferation.”
[Trump Administration] [Nuclear test] [Softpower]
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JULY 2020
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MAY 2020
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LAST CHANCE: COMMUNICATING AT THE NUCLEAR BRINK, SCENARIOS AND SOLUTIONS WORKSHOP, SYNTHESIS REPORT
NAPSNet Special Report
NAUTILUS INSTITUTE, STANLEY CENTER FOR PEACE AND SECURITY, AND TECHNOLOGY FOR GLOBAL SECURITY
MAY 23 2020
I. INTRODUCTION
In this study, the authors describe CATALINK, a novel “hotline” system, to enable secure and verifiable communications between leaders during nuclear crises and other high-stakes scenarios. This unique, resilient system is designed for “radical simplicity” from the hardware up, with as few components as possible. The proposed system would augment but not replace hotlines currently used by governments around the world or provide such links where they do not already exist.
In summary, they declare that “The long-term vision is to develop and deploy CATALINK as a voluntary communications tool to support crisis decision-making globally—one that is secure, survivable, and free from interference, spoofing, or jamming. The stakes could not be higher. A stable, secure hotline connecting nuclear states (and other nations) could ensure that leaders can negotiate, confirm information, or signal intentions to avoid escalation to nuclear war. CATALINK will justify its existence if the system helps to avert even one such conflict.”
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N.Korea Building Missile Hangar Near Pyongyang
By Roh Suk-jo
May 07, 2020 09:37
North Korea is close to completing a missile storage facility near Pyongyang Sunan International Airport.
The facility is "almost certainly related to North Korea's expanding ballistic missile program," the Beyond Parallel website at the Center for Strategic and International Studies reported Tuesday.
"A high-bay building within the facility is large enough to accommodate an elevated Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile and, therefore, the entirety of North Korea's known ballistic missile variants," it added.
[Missile] [Media]
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APRIL 2020
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North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: Personnel Movement Continues Throughout the Site
By: Frank Pabian, Jack Liu and Peter Makowsky
April 10, 2020
Commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site shows personnel movement throughout the complex, including around the previously abandoned East Portal, where some additional unknown activity has been evident. While the nature of activity at the East Portal is unclear, it may be part of routine security patrols but could also involve some form of radiation monitoring, given that the footpaths lead to the base of the mountain near the portal from where leaks had been previously detected. Despite the complex’s formal closing in 2018, there have been consistent signs that personnel remain onsite and frequently patrol the former test areas as well as maintain the Command Center, which remains intact. However, there have been no indicators of attempts to re-excavate any of the test tunnels and/or reactivate the site.
[Punggye-ri]
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Sohae Satellite Launching Station: Service Roads Regraded
By: 38 North
March 31, 2020
A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Peter Makowsky, Jack Liu and Jenny Town
Recent commercial satellite imagery of the Sohae Satellite Launching Station indicates that, while there are no observable signs of preparations for either a rocket launch or engine test, the complex continues to be aggressively maintained. This includes regrading the entire existing network of dirt roads in the complex sometime after snow was cleared this spring, improving their serviceability and likely ensuring that the site remains ready for use. A few new connecting segments were carved out as well, but it is impossible to determine their purpose based on imagery alone.
[Sohae] [SLV]
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MARCH 2020
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North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Center: Railcars Have Departed
By: 38 North
March 13, 2020
A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Peter Makowsky, Olli Heinonen, Frank V. Pabian and Jack Liu
Commercial satellite imagery from late February of North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center indicates that the railcars that had arrived in the area by February 10 had departed by February 26. The movement of the railcars throughout the complex suggests they could have been transporting reagents used in various nuclear fuel production and/or waste handling and decontamination processes. Without corresponding indicators of activity at the Radiochemical Laboratory, they are more likely associated with activity at the suspected Radioisotope Production Plant or Uranium Enrichment Plant (UEP). There are no signs that the products transported were radioactive.
While there are no indications that the 5 MWe Reactor or the Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR) are in operation, fresh snowfall present on February 19 revealed continued low levels of activity throughout the complex.
[Yongbyon]
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FEBRUARY 2020
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N.Korea Revamps 'Destroyed' Missile Site
By Yang Seung-sik
February 21, 2020 10:30
North Korea is revamping the Tongchang-ri missile site it ostensibly shut down in 2018 after recently testing a missile engine there.
"It seems that the North is repairing and refurbishing various facilities there," a military spokesman here said Thursday, "We're watching whether it intends to operate the site on a long-term basis."
Google Earth satellite imagery from Nov. 28 last year shows some changes at a building there. A huge propaganda billboard has been put up at the building, and the road and facilities nearby are being kept in good condition.
The regime has also recently set up a monument in celebration of a series of successful missile launches from Tongchang-ri.
/Courtesy of Google Earth
Meanwhile the U.S. is rattling its saber in the region.
The U.S. Air Force Global Strike Command said on its website on Feb. 11, "February got off to a busy start for Air Force Global Strike Command, with a Bomber Task Force mission to the Indo-Pacific Theater, and an unarmed Minuteman III developmental test launch from Vandenberg Air Force Base, California, taking place within days of one another."
It said pilots "demonstrated that bomber and [intercontinental ballistic missile] capabilities are ready to respond by displaying two-thirds of the U.S. nuclear triad, spanning two ends of the Pacific."
[Escalation] [Reversibility]
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North Korea’s Sinpo South Shipyard: Low-Level Activity
By: 38 North
February 20, 2020
A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu and Peter Makowsky
Recent commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Sinpo South Shipyard indicates a low level of activity continues.
While the awning covering the area where the SINPO-class experimental ballistic missile submarine (SSBA) is usually berthed prevents determining whether it is present, the submersible barge with an adjacent mini-sub is partially visible.
It is worth noting that the staging area (parts yard) servicing the construction halls appears to be almost empty, in contrast to the past few years when parts have been consistently present. It is unclear what this means, but possible explanations range from a submarine under construction may be nearing completion to there simply being a lull in delivery of parts to the complex.
[Sinpo] [SLBM]
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North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Center: Rail Activity at the Radioisotope Production and Uranium Enrichment Plants
By: 38 North
February 14, 2020
A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Peter Makowsky, Frank V. Pabian and Jack Liu
Recent commercial satellite imagery reveals minor activity within North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center complex with no indications of operations at the 5 MWe reactor or Experimental Light Water Reactor. There are four railroad flatcars present, each configured to carry four-to-five cylindrical containers. Their location and the lack of indicators at the Radiochemical Laboratory suggests that the railcars are carrying nonradioactive materials, likely chemicals related to uranium conversion operations at the Radioisotope Production Plant.
[Yongbyon]
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Sohae Satellite Launch Facility: No Signs of Satellite Launch or Engine Test Preparations
By: 38 North
January 29, 2020
A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu and Jenny Town
Recent commercial satellite imagery of the Sohae Satellite Launching Station indicates that, while the facility is being maintained, there are no observable signs of preparations for either a rocket launch or engine test.
Imagery from December 23 shows efforts to clear snow off the roads leading to all the major facilities. The most progress has been made on the road from the Vertical Engine Test Stand to the VIP Observation Facility, with only two short segments remaining. The test stand itself is still snow covered.
[Sohae]
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North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: Minor Activity Discernible in Recent Snowfalls
By: 38 North
January 29, 2020Satellite Imagery, WMD
A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Frank V. Pabian and Jenny Town
Recent commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site revealed the presence of fresh footpaths and vehicle tracks in the snow around the Portal Areas and at the Main Administrative Support Area. In addition, snow had been cleared from the roads leading from the security barracks area to the Command Center. There are no indications of renewed excavation, construction or other activity that would suggest the North is trying to reopen the complex. Instead, track activity is more likely related to security patrols of the area.
[Punggye-ri]
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Recent Imagery Does Not Suggest an Imminent Missile or Engine Test
By: 38 North
January 28, 2020
A recently published news report by CNN suggested that vehicle activity at one of North Korea’s missile development facilities, the Sanum-dong missile research center near Pyongyang, may be an indicator of a forthcoming long-range missile launch or engine test. North Korea’s next moves remain unclear, but contrary to the report, none of the activities to date suggest imminent testing.[Missile test]
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N.Korea 'Building Underground Missile Base'
By Yu Yong-weon
January 30, 2020 11:18
North Korea is believed to have built a large tunnel in Ryanggang Province near the border with China that appears to be an underground missile base.
The U.S. and South Korea are monitoring the facility, which experts believe could be part of a cluster of North Korean missile bases being built underground to avoid aerial attacks.
According to a government source on Wednesday, the 10 m-wide tunnel was spotted just 6 km from the Chinese border by reconnaissance satellites. It has only one entrance. Military authorities here believe it is a missile storage facility.
Two cylindrical objects sit in front of a tunnel in Ryanggang Province, in this Google Earth satellite image from September last year.
A photo from Google Earth in September last year showed two cylindrical objects measuring around 10 m in length at the mouth of the tunnel that appear to be missile-launching tubes.
North Korea's Pukguksong-2 solid-fuel missile is fired from 12-m cylindrical launchers.
The UN Security Council in a report in September last year confirmed that Pukguksong-2 missiles stationed near the North's border with China are capable of striking U.S. military bases in Japan. The bases would play a crucial role in bolstering U.S. troop deployments to South Korea in the event of war.
The UNSC report did not pinpoint the exact location of the missiles but pointed out that Rodong missiles were also deployed there.
The facility would be difficult for the U.S. and South Korea to attack because it is so close to the Chinese border.
[Missile]
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JANUARY 2020
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Closer than ever:
It is 100 seconds to midnight
2020 Doomsday Clock Statement
Science and Security Board
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Editor, John Mecklin
bulletin of atomic scientists 2020 doomsday clock 100 seconds to midnight
Full Statement | From the President | Board Biographies | About the Bulletin | Clock Timeline
PDF download | Print version
It is 100 seconds to midnight
Editor’s note: Founded in 1945 by University of Chicago scientists who had helped develop the first atomic weapons in the Manhattan Project, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists created the Doomsday Clock two years later, using the imagery of apocalypse (midnight) and the contemporary idiom of nuclear explosion (countdown to zero) to convey threats to humanity and the planet. The decision to move (or to leave in place) the minute hand of the Doomsday Clock is made every year by the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board in consultation with its Board of Sponsors, which includes 13 Nobel laureates. The Clock has become a universally recognized indicator of the world’s vulnerability to catastrophe from nuclear weapons, climate change, and disruptive technologies in other domains.
To: Leaders and citizens of the world
Re: Closer than ever: It is 100 seconds to midnight
Date: January 23, 2020
Humanity continues to face two simultaneous existential dangers—nuclear war and climate change—that are compounded by a threat multiplier, cyber-enabled information warfare, that undercuts society’s ability to respond. The international security situation is dire, not just because these threats exist, but because world leaders have allowed the international political infrastructure for managing them to erode.
In the nuclear realm, national leaders have ended or undermined several major arms control treaties and negotiations during the last year, creating an environment conducive to a renewed nuclear arms race, to the proliferation of nuclear weapons, and to lowered barriers to nuclear war. Political conflicts regarding nuclear programs in Iran and North Korea remain unresolved and are, if anything, worsening. US-Russia cooperation on arms control and disarmament is all but nonexistent.
[Nuclear war] [False balance] [Proportionality]
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